26/03/2017 Sunday Politics


26/03/2017

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It's Sunday morning, this is the Sunday Politics.

:00:42.:00:46.

The police believe the Westminster attacker Khalid Masood acted alone,

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but do the security services have the resources and

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We'll ask the leader of the House of Commons.

:00:52.:00:54.

As Theresa May prepares to trigger Brexit, details of

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Will a so-called Henry VIII clause give the Government too much power

:00:58.:01:03.

Ukip's only MP, Douglas Carswell, quits the party saying it's "job

:01:04.:01:07.

done" - we'll speak to him and the party's

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In London, a capital in recovery, but after this week's

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attack in Westminster, have the police resources to the job

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And with me - as always - the best and the brightest political

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panel in the business - Toby Young, Polly Toynbee

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and Janan Ganesh, who'll be tweeting throughout the programme.

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First, it was the most deadly terrorist attack

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The attacker was shot dead trying to storm Parliament,

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but not before he'd murdered four people and injured 50 -

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one of those is still in a critical condition in hospital.

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His target was the very heart of our democracy,

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the Palace of Westminster, and he came within metres

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of the Prime Minister and senior Cabinet ministers.

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Without the quick actions of the Defence Secretary's

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close protection detail, fortuitously in the vicinity

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at the time, the outcome could have been even worse.

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Janan Ganesh it is four days now, getting on. What thoughts should we

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be having this weekend? First of all, Theresa May's Parliamentary

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response was exemplary. In many ways, the moment she arrived as

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prime minister and her six years as Home Secretary showed a positive

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way. No other serving politician is as steeped in counterterror and

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national security experience as she is and I think it showed. As to

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whether politics is going now, it looks like the Government will put

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more pressure on companies like Google and Facebook to monitor

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sensor radical content that flows through their channels, and I wonder

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whether beyond that the Government, not just our Government but around

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the world, will start to open this question of, during a terror attack,

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as it is unfolding, should there be restrictions on what can appear on

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social media? I was on Twitter at the time last week, during the

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attack, and people were posting things which may have been useful to

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the perpetrators, not on that occasion but future occasions.

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Should there be restrictions on what and how much people can post while

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an attack is unfolding? I think we have learned that this is like the

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weather, it is going to happen, it is going to happen all over the

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world and in every country and we deal with it well, we deal with it

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stoically, perhaps we are more used to it than some. We had the IRA for

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years, we know how to make personal risk assessments, how to know the

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chances of being in the wrong place at the wrong time are infinitesimal,

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so people in London didn't say, I'm not going to go to the centre of

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London today, everything carried on just the same. Because we know that

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the odds of it, being unlucky, are very small. Life is dangerous, this

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is another very small risk and it is the danger of being alive. I think

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from an Isis Islamist propaganda point of view, it showed just what a

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poor target London and the House of Commons is, and it is hard to

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imagine the emergency services and local people, international

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visitors, reacting much better than they did. And the fact that our

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Muslim mayor was able to make an appearance so quickly afterwards

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shows, I think, that we are not city riddled with anti-Islamic prejudice.

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It couldn't really have been a better advertisement for the values

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that is attacking. OK, thank you for that.

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So, four days after the attack, what more do we know

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The police have made 11 arrests, but only one remains

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Here's Adam with the latest on the investigation.

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According to a police timeline, that's how long it took

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Khalid Masood to drive through a crowd on Westminster

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to crash his car into Parliament's perimeter...

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to fatally stab PC Keith Palmer, before being shot by a bodyguard

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The public are leaving tributes to the dead at Westminster.

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The family of PC Palmer released a statement saying:

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"We would like to express our gratitude to the people

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who were with Keith in his last moments and who were

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There was nothing more you could have done,

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you did your best and we are just grateful he was not alone."

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Investigators say Masood's motive may have gone to the grave with him.

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Officers think he acted alone, despite reports he spent a WhatsApp

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The Home Secretary now has such encrypted messaging

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There should be no place for terrorists to hide.

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We need to make sure that organisations like WhatsApp,

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and there are plenty of others like that, don't provide a secret

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place for terrorists to communicate with each other.

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It used to be that people would steam open envelopes or just

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listen in on phones when they wanted to find out what people were doing,

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legally, through warrantry, but in this situation

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we need to make sure that our intelligence services

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have the ability to get into situations like encrypted

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She will ask the tech industry to suggest solutions

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at a meeting this week, although she didn't rule out

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But for those caught up in the attack, perhaps it will be

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..not the policy implications that will echo the loudest.

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We're joined now from the Hague by the Director of Europol,

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the European Police Agency, Rob Wainwright.

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What role has Europol played in the aftermath of Wednesday's attacks? I

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can tell you we are actively supporting the investigation,

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because it is a live case I cannot of course go into the details, but

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to give you some context, Andrew, this is one of about 80

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counterterrorist cases we have been supporting across Europe this year,

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using a platform to shed thousands of intelligence messages between the

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very large counterterrorist community in Europe, and also

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tracking flows of terrorist finance, illegal firearms, and monitoring

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this terrible propaganda online as well. All of that is being made

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available now to the Metropolitan Police in London for this case. Do

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we know if there is any European link to those who may have inspired

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or directed Khalid Massoud? That is an active part of the inquiry being

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led by Metropolitan Police and it is not for me to comment or speculate

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on that. There are links of course in terms of the profile of the

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attacker and the way in which he launched these terrible events in

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Westminster, and those that we've seen, for example, in the Berlin

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Christmas market last year and the attack in Nice in the summer of last

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year, clear similarities between the fact that the attackers involved

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have criminal background, somewhat dislocated from society, each of

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them using a hired or stolen vehicle to deliberately aim at pedestrians

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in a crowded place and using a secondary weapon, whether it is a

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gun or a knife. So we are seeing a trend, I think, of the kind of

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attacks across Europe in the last couple of years and some of that at

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least was played out unfortunately in Westminster this week as well.

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Mass and was known to the emergency services, so were many of those

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involved in the Brussels, Paris and Berlin attacks, so something is

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going wrong here, we are not completely across this, are we?

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Actually most attacks are being stopped. This was I think at least

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the 14th terrorist plot or attempted attack in Britain since 2013 and the

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only one that has got through, and that fits a picture of what we see

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in France last year, 17 attempted attacks that were stopped, for

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example. Unfortunately some of them get through. But people on the

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security services' Radar getting through, in Westminster, Brussels,

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Paris and Berlin. There is clearly something we are not doing that

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could stop that. Again, if you look at what happened in Berlin and at

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least the first indications from what police are saying in London,

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these are people that haven't really appeared on Baha'i target list of

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the authorities, they are on the edge at best of radicalised

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community -- on the high target list. When you are dealing with a

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dispersed community of thousands of radicalised, Senate radicalised

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individuals, it is very difficult to monitor them 24/7, very difficult

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when these people, almost out of the blue and carry out the attacks that

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they did. I think you have to find a sense of perspective here around the

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work and the pressures of the work and the difficult target choices

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that police and security authorities have to make around Europe. The Home

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Secretary here in London said this morning it is time to tackle apps

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like WhatsApp, which we believe Massoud was using, because they

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encrypt from end to end and it is difficult for the security services

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to know what is happening there. What do you say, are you up for

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that? Across the hundreds of cases we have supported in recent years

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there is no doubt that encryption, encrypted communications are

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becoming more and more prominent in the way terrorists communicate, more

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and more of a problem, therefore, a real challenge for investigators,

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and that the heart of this is a stark inconsistency between the

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ability of the police to lawfully intercept telephone calls, but not

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when those messages are exchanged via a social media messaging board,

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for example, and that is an inconsistency in society and we have

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to find a solution through appropriate legislation perhaps of

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these technologies and law enforcement agencies working in a

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more constructive way. So you back that? I agree that there is

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certainly a problem, absolutely. We know there was a problem, I'm trying

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to find out if you agree with the Home Secretary's solution? I agree

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certainly with her calls for changes to be made. What the legislative

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solution for that is of course for her and other lawmakers to decide

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but from my point of view, yes, I would agree something has to be done

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to make sure we can apply more consistent interception of

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communication in all parts of the way in which terrorists invade our

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lives. Rob Wainwright of Europol, thank you very much.

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Here with me in the studio now is the Leader of the House

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What did last week's attack tell us about the security of the Palace of

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Westminster? It told us that we are looked after by some very

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courageous, very professional police officers. There is clearly going to

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be a lessons learned with you, as you would expect after any incident

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of this kind. That will look very carefully at what worked well but

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also whether there are changes that need to be made, that is already

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under way. And that is being run by professionals, by the police and

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security director at Parliament... Palace authorities, we will get

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reports from the professionals, particularly our own Parliamentary

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security director, and just as security matters in parliament are

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kept under constant review, if there are changes that need to be made as

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a result, then they will need to be made. Let's look at some of the

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issues it has thrown up, as we get some distance from these appalling

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events when our first reaction was always the people who lose their

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lives and suffer, and then we start to become a bit more analytical. Is

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it true that the authorities removed armed guards from Cowbridge gate,

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where the attacker made his entry, because they looked to threatening

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for tourists? -- carriage gate. No, the idea that a protest from MPs led

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to operational changes simply not the case. What happened in the last

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couple of years is that the security arrangements in new Palace Yard have

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actually been strengthened, but I don't think your view was would

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expect me to go into a detailed commentary upon operational security

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matters. Why were the armed guards removed? There are armed guards at

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all times in the Palace of Westminster, it is a matter for the

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security authorities and in particular for the police and direct

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command of those officers to decide how they are best deployed. Is it

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because, as some from Scotland Yard sources have reported to the papers

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this morning, was it done because of staffing shortages? I'm in no

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position to comment on the details of the operation but my

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understanding is that the number of people available is what the police

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and the security authorities working together have decided to deploy and

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that they think was commensurate with the threat that we faced. Is it

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not of concern that as the incident unfolded the gates were left

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unguarded by armed and unarmed, they were just unguarded, so much so

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that, as it was going on, a career with a parcel on a moped at was able

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to drive through? -- up career. I think we will need to examine that

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case as part of looking into any lessons learned, but what I don't

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yet know, because the police are still interviewing everybody

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involved, witnesses and police officers involved, was exactly who

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was standing where in the vicinity of the murder at a particular time.

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We have seen pictures, the gates were unguarded as people were

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concentrating on what was happening to the police man and to the

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attacker, but the delivery man was able to come through the gates with

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a parcel?! You have seen a particular camera angle, I think it

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is important before we rush to judgment, and we shouldn't be

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pointing fingers, we need... We are trying to get to the bottom of it.

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To get to the bottom of it means we have to look at what all the

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witnesses and all the police officers involved say about what

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happened, and then there needs to be a decision taken about what if any

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changes need to be made in light of that.

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We know the attacker was stopped in his tracks by the Defence

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Secretary's bodyguard, where was the armed roving unit that had replaced

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the armed guard at the gate? I cannot comment on operation details

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but my understanding is there were other armed officers who would have

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been able to prevent the attacker from getting to the chamber, as has

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been alleged it would be possible for him to do. Were you aware that a

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so-called table top simulation, carried out by Scotland Yard and the

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Parliamentary authorities, ended with four terrorists in this

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simulation able to storm parliament and killed dozens of MPs? No, that

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is the first time that has been mentioned to me. You are the leader

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of the house. These matters are dealt with by security professionals

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who are involved, they are advised by a security committee, chaired by

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the Deputy Speaker, but we do not debate operational details in

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public. I'm not asking for a debate, I raise this because it's been

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reported because it's quite clear that after this simulation, it

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raised serious questions about the security of the palace. Actions

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should have followed. What I've said to you is that these matters are

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kept under constant review and that there are always changes made both

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in the deployment of individual officers and security guards of the

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palace staff and other plans to strengthen the hard security of the

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perimeter. If you look back at Hansard December last year, they was

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a plan already been brought forward to strengthen the security at

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carriage Gates, looking at questions of access. Will there be armed

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guards now? You need to look not just at armed guards, you need to

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look at the entirety of the security engagements including fencing.

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There's lots about the security we don't need to know and shouldn't

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know, but whether or not there are armed guards is something we will

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find out quite soon and I'm asking you if you think there should be. If

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you think the judgment is by our security experts that there need to

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be more armed guards in certain places, then they will be deployed

:18:43.:18:48.

accordingly, but I think before we rush to make conclusions about

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lessons to be learned from Wednesday's appalling attack, it is

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important the police are allowed to get on with completing the interview

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of witnesses and their own officers, and then that there is considered

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view taken about what changes might need to be made and then they will

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be implemented. Let me come onto the triggering of Article 50 that begins

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our negotiations to exit the European Union. It will happen on

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Wednesday. John Claude Juncker told Germany's most popular newspaper

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that he wants to make an example of the UK to make everyone realise it's

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not worth leaving the EU. What do you make of that? I think all sorts

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of things are said in advance of negotiations beginning. Clearly the

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commission will want to ensure the EU 27 holds together. As the Prime

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Minister has said, that is a British national interest as well. She has

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been very clear... What do you make of President Juncker's remark? It

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doesn't surprise me ahead of negotiations but I think if rational

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mutual interest is to the fore that it's perfectly possible for an

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agreement to be negotiated between the UK and our 27 friends and allies

:20:09.:20:14.

that addresses all of the issues from trade to security, police

:20:15.:20:18.

cooperation, foreign policy co-operation, works for all

:20:19.:20:23.

countries. The EU wants to agree a substantial divorce bill before it

:20:24.:20:28.

will even discuss any future UK EU relations, what do you make of that?

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Article 50 says the terms of exit need to be negotiated in the context

:20:35.:20:39.

of the kind of future relationship that's going to exist between the

:20:40.:20:43.

departing country and the remaining member states. It seems it is simply

:20:44.:20:48.

not possible to separate those two. Clearly there will need to be a

:20:49.:20:53.

discussion about joint assets and join liabilities but I think if we

:20:54.:20:57.

all keep to the fore the fact we will continue to be neighbours, we

:20:58.:21:01.

will continue to be essential allies and trading partners, then it is

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possible to come to a deal that works for all size. The

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question is do you agree the divorce bill first and then look at the

:21:21.:21:23.

subsequent relations we will have or do you do them both in parallel?

:21:24.:21:26.

Article 50 itself says they have to run together. Do you think they have

:21:27.:21:31.

to be done together or sequentially? I think it is impossible to separate

:21:32.:21:36.

the two but we will get into negotiations very soon and then once

:21:37.:21:40.

David Davis is sitting down with Michel Barnier and others and the

:21:41.:21:46.

national governments become involved too, then I hope we can make steady

:21:47.:21:51.

progress. An early deal about each other's citizens would be a good

:21:52.:21:55.

piece of low hanging fruit. Is the Government willing to pay a

:21:56.:22:04.

substantial divorce bill? The Prime Minister has said we don't rule out

:22:05.:22:08.

some kind of continuing payments, for example there may be EU

:22:09.:22:13.

programmes in the future in which we want to continue to participate. 50

:22:14.:22:20.

billion? We don't envisage long-term payments of vast sums of money. So

:22:21.:22:25.

50 billion isn't even the Government ballpark? You are tempting me to get

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into the detail of negotiation, that is something that will be starting

:22:32.:22:36.

very soon and let's leave it to the negotiations. During the referendum

:22:37.:22:44.

there was no talk from the Leave side about any question of

:22:45.:22:48.

separation bill, now the talk is of 50 billion and I'm trying to find

:22:49.:22:51.

out if the British government thinks that of amount is on your radar. The

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Government is addressing the situation in which we now are, which

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is that we have a democratic obligation to implement the decision

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of the people in the referendum last year, and that we need to do that in

:23:13.:23:17.

a way that maximises the opportunity, the future prosperity

:23:18.:23:21.

and security of everybody in the UK. Let me try one more thing on the

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Great Repeal Bill, the white Paper will be published I think on

:23:26.:23:30.

Thursday, is that right? We haven't announced an exact date but you will

:23:31.:23:35.

see the white Paper very soon. Let's say it is Thursday, it will enshrine

:23:36.:23:40.

thousands of EU laws into UK law, it will use what's called Henry VIII

:23:41.:23:45.

powers, who of course was a dictator. Is this an attempt to

:23:46.:23:51.

avoid proper Parliamentary scrutiny? No, we are repealing the Communities

:23:52.:23:59.

Act 1972, then put existing EU legal obligations on the UK statutory

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footing, so business know where they stand. Then, because a lot of those

:24:04.:24:10.

EU regulations will for example refer to the commission or another

:24:11.:24:17.

regulator, you need to substitute a UK authority in place so we need to

:24:18.:24:21.

have a power under secondary legislation to tweak the European

:24:22.:24:32.

regulators so it is coherent. This is weather Henry VIII powers come

:24:33.:24:38.

in. It is secondary legislation and the scope, the definition of those

:24:39.:24:42.

powers and when they can be used in what circumstances is something the

:24:43.:24:45.

parliament will have to approve in voting through the bill itself. And

:24:46.:24:51.

if it is as innocuous as you say, will you accept the proposal of the

:24:52.:24:56.

Lords for an enhanced scrutiny process on the secondary

:24:57.:25:00.

legislation? Neither the relevant committee of the House of Lords, the

:25:01.:25:04.

constitution committee, nor anyone else has seen the text of the bill

:25:05.:25:10.

and I think when it comes out, I hope that those members of the House

:25:11.:25:13.

of Lords will find that reassuring, but as I say the definition of those

:25:14.:25:19.

powers are something the parliament itself will take the final decision.

:25:20.:25:25.

David Lidington, thank you for being with us.

:25:26.:25:27.

So, Ukip has lost its only MP - Douglas Carswell.

:25:28.:25:29.

He defected to Ukip from the Conservative Party

:25:30.:25:31.

almost three years ago, but yesterday announced

:25:32.:25:32.

that he was quitting to sit as an independent.

:25:33.:25:35.

His surprise defection came in August 2014 saying,

:25:36.:25:37.

"Only Ukip can shake up that cosy little clique called Westminster".

:25:38.:25:39.

But his bromance with Nigel Farage turned sour when Mr Carswell

:25:40.:25:43.

criticised the so-called "shock and awful" strategy as

:25:44.:25:45.

Then, during the EU referendum campaign last year, Nigel Farage

:25:46.:25:50.

was part of the unofficial Leave.EU campaign, whereas Douglas Carswell

:25:51.:25:53.

opted to support the official Vote Leave campaign.

:25:54.:25:59.

Just last month, former Ukip leader Nigel Farage

:26:00.:26:01.

accused Douglas Carswell of thwarting his chances

:26:02.:26:03.

of being awarded a knighthood, writing that,

:26:04.:26:05.

Announcing his resignation on his website yesterday,

:26:06.:26:13.

Mr Carswell said, "I desperately wanted us to leave the EU.

:26:14.:26:16.

Now we can be certain that that is going to happen, I have

:26:17.:26:19.

decided that I will be leaving Ukip."

:26:20.:26:21.

When Mr Carswell left the Conservative Party in 2014

:26:22.:26:24.

he resigned as an MP, triggering a by-election.

:26:25.:26:27.

"I must seek permission from my boss," he said referring

:26:28.:26:29.

This time, though, Mr Carswell has said there will be no by-election.

:26:30.:26:38.

We're joined now from Salford by Ukip leader, Paul Nuttall.

:26:39.:26:44.

Welcome back to the programme. Are you happy to see the back of your

:26:45.:26:54.

only MP? Well, do you know, I'm always sad when people leave Ukip at

:26:55.:27:00.

a grass roots level or Parliamentary level, but I'm sad but I'm not

:27:01.:27:05.

surprised by this. There has been adrift by Douglas and Ukip over the

:27:06.:27:09.

past couple of years, his relationship with Nigel Farage

:27:10.:27:13.

certainly hasn't helped, and it is a hangover from the former regime

:27:14.:27:18.

which I inherited. I try to bring the party together, I thought I had

:27:19.:27:21.

done that for a few months but it seems now as if I was only papering

:27:22.:27:25.

over the cracks. Douglas has gone and I think we will move on and be a

:27:26.:27:32.

more unified party as a result. Did Douglas Carswell jump because he

:27:33.:27:36.

expected to be pushed out your national executive committee

:27:37.:27:39.

tomorrow? He came before the National executive committee to

:27:40.:27:42.

answer questions regarding issues that have come to the fore over the

:27:43.:27:46.

last couple of months. There was the knighthood issue, the issue

:27:47.:27:53.

surrounding the Thanet election and his comments in a book which came

:27:54.:27:58.

out regarding Brexit. So was he under suspicion? He was coming to

:27:59.:28:02.

answer these questions and they would have been difficult. So he did

:28:03.:28:10.

jump in your view? No, I'm not saying he would have been pushed out

:28:11.:28:14.

of the party but he would have faced difficult questions. What is clear

:28:15.:28:22.

is that a fissure had developed and I'm not surprised by him leaving the

:28:23.:28:27.

party. You have also lost Diane James, Stephen Wolf, Arron Banks,

:28:28.:28:32.

you failed to win the Stoke by election, Mr Carswell is now a

:28:33.:28:37.

pundit on US television, Ukip now stands for the UK irrelevance party,

:28:38.:28:45.

doesn't it? Paul's hard us yesterday on 12%, membership continues to

:28:46.:29:01.

rise. -- the polls had us on 12%. 4 million people voted for Ukip. Over

:29:02.:29:05.

the summer exciting things will be happening in the party, we will

:29:06.:29:09.

rewrite the constitution, restructure the party, it will have

:29:10.:29:13.

a new feel to it and we will be launching pretty much the post

:29:14.:29:18.

Brexit Ukip. Arron Banks, who used to pay quite a lot of your bills, he

:29:19.:29:23.

said the current leadership, that would be you, couldn't knock the

:29:24.:29:27.

skin off a rice pudding, another way of saying you are relevant, isn't

:29:28.:29:33.

it? I don't think that's fair. I've only been in the job since November

:29:34.:29:38.

the 28th, we have taken steps to restructure the party already, the

:29:39.:29:42.

party is on a sound financial footing, we won't have a problem

:29:43.:29:46.

money wise going forward. It is a party which can really unified, look

:29:47.:29:51.

forward to the post Brexit Iraq, tomorrow we are launching our Brexit

:29:52.:29:56.

test for the Prime Minister. If it wasn't for Ukip there wouldn't have

:29:57.:30:02.

been a referendum and we wouldn't have Brexit. Every time you say you

:30:03.:30:05.

will unified, someone else leaves. Is Arron Banks still a member? No,

:30:06.:30:12.

not at this moment in time. He has been a generous donor in the past,

:30:13.:30:16.

he's done a great job of ensuring we get Brexit and I'm thankful for that

:30:17.:30:22.

but he isn't a member. He has just submitted an invoice of ?2000 for

:30:23.:30:25.

the use of call centres, will you pay that? No. That should be

:30:26.:30:35.

interesting to watch. In the aftermath of the Westminster

:30:36.:30:41.

attack, Nigel Farage told Fox News that it vindicates Donald Trump's

:30:42.:30:45.

extreme vetting of migrants. Since the attacker was born in Kent, like

:30:46.:30:50.

Nigel Farage, can you explain the relevance of the remark? I

:30:51.:30:54.

personally haven't supported Donald Trump's position on this, but what I

:30:55.:30:59.

will say, this is what Nigel has said as well, we have a problem

:31:00.:31:03.

within the Muslim community, it is a small number of people who hate the

:31:04.:31:08.

way we live... Can you explain the relevance of Mr Farage's remark? Mr

:31:09.:31:11.

Farage also made the point about multiculturalism being the

:31:12.:31:28.

problem as well and he is correct on that because we cannot have separate

:31:29.:31:30.

communities living separate lives and never integrating. How would

:31:31.:31:32.

extreme vetting of migrants help you track down a man who was born in

:31:33.:31:35.

Kent? In this case it wouldn't. Maybe in other cases it would. But,

:31:36.:31:38.

as I say, I'm not a supporter of Donald Trump's position on extreme

:31:39.:31:41.

vetting, never have been, so I'm the wrong person to ask the question

:31:42.:31:45.

too, Andrew. That has probably become clear in my efforts to get

:31:46.:31:50.

you to answer it. Let me as too, should there be a by-election in

:31:51.:31:53.

Clacton now? Douglas has called by-elections in the past when he has

:31:54.:31:57.

left a political party, I know certain people in Ukip are keen to

:31:58.:32:04.

go down this line, Douglas is always keen on recall and if 20% of people

:32:05.:32:07.

in his constituency want a by-election then maybe we should

:32:08.:32:10.

have won. Ukip will be opening nominations for Clacton very soon.

:32:11.:32:17.

Hold on with us, Mr Nuttall, I have Douglas Carswell here in the studio.

:32:18.:32:23.

Why not call a by-election? I'm not switching parties. You are, you are

:32:24.:32:30.

becoming independent. There is a difference, I've not submitted

:32:31.:32:33.

myself to the whip up a new party, if I was, I would be obliged to

:32:34.:32:38.

trigger a by-election. If every time an MP in the House of Commons

:32:39.:32:42.

resigned the whip or lost the whip, far from actually strengthening the

:32:43.:32:46.

democracy against the party bosses, that would give those who ran

:32:47.:32:50.

parties and enormous power, so I'm being absolutely consistent here,

:32:51.:32:56.

I'm not joining a party. It is a change of status and Nigel Farage

:32:57.:32:59.

has just said he will write to every constituent in Clacton and he wants

:33:00.:33:08.

to try and get 20% of constituents to older by-election. We are going

:33:09.:33:12.

to testing, he says, write to every house in Clacton, find out if his

:33:13.:33:16.

constituents want a by-election, if 20% do we will find out if Mr

:33:17.:33:20.

Carswell is honourable. I'm sure they will be delighted to hear from

:33:21.:33:27.

Nigel. There have been several by-elections when Nigel has had the

:33:28.:33:29.

opportunity to contact the electorate we did -- which did not

:33:30.:33:36.

always go to plan. If you got 20%, would you? Yesterday I sent an

:33:37.:33:40.

e-mail to 20,000 constituents, I have had a lot of responses back,

:33:41.:33:45.

overwhelmingly supported. Recently you said you were 100% Ukip, now you

:33:46.:33:52.

are 0%. What happened? I saw Theresa May triggering article 50, we won,

:33:53.:33:57.

Andrew. You knew a few months ago she was going to do that. On June

:33:58.:34:01.

the 24th I had serious thought about making the move but I wanted to be

:34:02.:34:05.

absolutely certain that Article 50 would be triggered and I think it is

:34:06.:34:10.

right. This is why ultimately Ukip exists, to get us out of the

:34:11.:34:13.

European Union. We should be cheerful instead of attacking one

:34:14.:34:18.

another, this is our moment, we made it happen. Did you try to sideline

:34:19.:34:23.

the former Ukip leader during the referendum campaign? Not at all, I

:34:24.:34:28.

have been open about this, the idea I have been involved in subterfuge.

:34:29.:34:33.

You try to sideline him openly rather than by subterfuge? I made

:34:34.:34:37.

the point we needed to be open, broad and progressive to win. I made

:34:38.:34:40.

it clear in my acceptance speech in Clacton and when I said that Vote

:34:41.:34:44.

Leave should get designation that the only way Euroscepticism would

:34:45.:34:48.

win was by being more than just angry natives. What do you make of

:34:49.:34:54.

that? I am over the moon that we have achieved Brexit, unlike Douglas

:34:55.:35:02.

I rarely have that much confidence in Theresa May because history

:35:03.:35:05.

proves that she is good at talking the talk but in walking the walk

:35:06.:35:08.

often fails, and I'm disappointed because I wanted Douglas to be part

:35:09.:35:12.

of the post Brexit Ukip where we move forward with a raft of domestic

:35:13.:35:17.

policies and go on to take seat at Westminster. Do you think you try to

:35:18.:35:22.

sideline Mr Farage during the referendum campaign? Vote Leave

:35:23.:35:25.

certainly didn't want Nigel Farage front of house, we know that. They

:35:26.:35:31.

freely admit that, they admitted it on media over the past year. Nigel

:35:32.:35:37.

still was front of house because he is Nigel Farage and if it wasn't for

:35:38.:35:42.

Nigel, as I said earlier, we wouldn't have at the referendum and

:35:43.:35:45.

we wouldn't have achieved Brexit because Nigel Farage appeals, like

:35:46.:35:50.

Ukip to a certain section of the population. If our primary motive is

:35:51.:35:54.

to get us out of the European Union, why are we having this row, why

:35:55.:35:58.

can't we just celebrate what is happening on Wednesday? We can, but

:35:59.:36:02.

you are far more confident that Theresa May will deliver on this

:36:03.:36:07.

than I am. Ukip may have been a single issue pressure group ten

:36:08.:36:10.

years ago, it wasn't a single issue pressure group that you joined in

:36:11.:36:14.

2014, it wasn't a single issue pressure group that you stood for in

:36:15.:36:18.

2015 at the general election, and I'm disappointed that you have left

:36:19.:36:23.

us when we are moving onto an exciting era. What specifically

:36:24.:36:26.

gives you a lack of confidence in Mrs May's ability deliver? Her

:36:27.:36:31.

record as Home Secretary, she said she would deal with radical Islam,

:36:32.:36:36.

nothing happened, she said she would get immigration down to the tens of

:36:37.:36:40.

thousands, last year in her last year as Home Secretary as city the

:36:41.:36:43.

size of Newcastle came to this country, that is not tens of

:36:44.:36:47.

thousands. I think we need to take yes for an answer eventually. The

:36:48.:36:51.

problem with some Eurosceptics is they never accept they have won the

:36:52.:36:55.

argument. We have one, Theresa May is going to do what we have wanted

:36:56.:37:00.

her to do, let's be happy, let's celebrate that. But let's wait until

:37:01.:37:04.

she starts bartering things away, until she betrays our fishermen,

:37:05.:37:08.

just as other Conservative prime ministers have done in the past.

:37:09.:37:11.

Let's wait until we end up still paying some sort of membership fee

:37:12.:37:16.

into the European Union or a large divorce bill. That is not what

:37:17.:37:19.

people voted for on June the 23rd and if you want to align yourself

:37:20.:37:28.

with that, you are clearly not a Ukipper in my opinion. So for Ukip

:37:29.:37:32.

to have relevance, it has to go wrong? I'm confident politics will

:37:33.:37:37.

come back to our terms but -- our turf but there will be a post Brexit

:37:38.:37:41.

Ukip that will stand for veterans, book slashing the foreign aid bill

:37:42.:37:44.

and becoming the party of law and order. Finally, to you, Douglas

:37:45.:37:50.

Carswell, you say you have confidence in Mrs May to deliver in

:37:51.:37:55.

the way that Paul Nuttall doesn't. You backed her, you were

:37:56.:38:01.

Conservative, you believe that Brexit will be delivered under a

:38:02.:38:04.

Conservative Government. Why would you not bite the 2020 election as a

:38:05.:38:09.

Conservative? I feel comfortable being independent. If you join a

:38:10.:38:13.

party you have to agree to a bunch of stuff I would not want to agree

:38:14.:38:16.

with. I am comfortable being independent. So you will go into

:38:17.:38:25.

2020 as an independent? If you look at the raising of funds, what Vote

:38:26.:38:28.

Leave did as a pop-up party... We only have five seconds, will you

:38:29.:38:32.

fight as an independent in the next general election? Let's wait and

:38:33.:38:37.

see. Very well! Thank you both very much.

:38:38.:01:47.

see. Very well! Thank you both very you both for coming in, Andrew, back

:01:48.:01:48.

to you. So yesterday the European Union

:01:49.:01:55.

celebrated its 60th birthday at a party in Rome, the city

:01:56.:02:12.

where the founding document Leaders of 27 EU countries

:02:13.:02:14.

were there to mark the occasion - overshadowing it, though,

:02:15.:02:18.

the continued terrorist threat, And on Wednesday Theresa May,

:02:19.:02:20.

who wasn't in Rome yesterday, will trigger Article 50,

:02:21.:02:23.

formally starting The President of the European

:02:24.:02:25.

Council, Donald Tusk, made an appeal for unity

:02:26.:02:28.

at the gathering. Today in Rome, we are renewing

:02:29.:02:34.

the unique alliance of free nations that was initiated 60 years ago

:02:35.:02:39.

by our great predecessors. At that time, they did not

:02:40.:02:48.

discuss multiple speeds, they did not devise exits,

:02:49.:02:50.

but despite all the tragic circumstances of the recent history

:02:51.:02:55.

they placed all their faith Mr Tusk, he is Polish, the man that

:02:56.:03:15.

has the Council of ministers, and on that council where every member of

:03:16.:03:18.

the EU sits he is an important figure in what is now about to

:03:19.:03:23.

happen. We have got to negotiate our divorce terms, we've got to agree a

:03:24.:03:29.

new free trade deal, new crime-fighting arrangements, we've

:03:30.:03:33.

got to repatriate 50 international trade agreements, and all of that

:03:34.:03:38.

has to be ratified within two years, by 27 other countries. Can that

:03:39.:03:44.

really happen?! I don't think it is inconceivable because it is in the

:03:45.:03:48.

interests of those 27 EU member states to try and negotiate a deal

:03:49.:03:51.

that we can all live with, because that would be preferable to Britain

:03:52.:03:56.

crashing out within two years. But I think this is why Labour's position

:03:57.:04:00.

is becoming increasingly incoherent. Keir Starmer has briefed today that

:04:01.:04:05.

he will be making a speech tomorrow setting out six conditions which he

:04:06.:04:09.

wants the deal to meet, otherwise Labour won't vote for it, but if

:04:10.:04:11.

Labour doesn't vote for it that doesn't mean we will be able to

:04:12.:04:31.

negotiate an extension, that would be incredibly difficult and require

:04:32.:04:34.

the consent of each of the 27 member states, so if Labour votes against

:04:35.:04:37.

it we will just crash out, it is effectively Labour saying no deal is

:04:38.:04:39.

better than a poor deal, which is not supposed to be their position.

:04:40.:04:41.

Labour's position may be incoherent but I was not asking about their

:04:42.:04:44.

position, I was asking about the Government's position. The man

:04:45.:04:46.

heading the Badila said he wants it ready by October next year so that

:04:47.:04:49.

it can go through the ratification process, people looking at this

:04:50.:04:51.

would think it is Mission: Impossible. It seems impossible to

:04:52.:04:56.

me to be done in that time. The fact that it is 27 countries, the whole

:04:57.:05:02.

of the European Parliament as well, there will be too many people

:05:03.:05:06.

throbbing spanners in the works and quite rightly. We have embarked on

:05:07.:05:11.

something that is truly terrible and disastrous, and the imagery we can

:05:12.:05:15.

have of those 27 countries celebrating together 60 years of the

:05:16.:05:20.

most extraordinary successful movement for peace, for shared

:05:21.:05:23.

European values, and others not there... We were not there at the

:05:24.:05:30.

start either, and we are not there now! And we have been bad partners

:05:31.:05:37.

while we were inside, but now that we are leaving... They did not look

:05:38.:05:41.

like it was a birthday party to me! I think it was, there was a sense of

:05:42.:05:47.

renewal, Europe exists as a place envied in the world for its values,

:05:48.:05:52.

for its peacefulness, that is why people flocked to its borders, that

:05:53.:05:56.

is why they come here. Can you look at the agenda that faces the UK

:05:57.:06:02.

Government and EU 27, is it not possible, in fact even likely, that

:06:03.:06:07.

as the process comes to an end they will have to agree on a number of

:06:08.:06:13.

areas of transitional arrangements? I think they will and they will have

:06:14.:06:18.

to agree that soon, I would not be surprised if sometime soon there is

:06:19.:06:21.

an understanding is not a formal decision that this is a process that

:06:22.:06:25.

will extend over something closer to buy or seven than two years. On

:06:26.:06:29.

Wednesday article 50 will be filed and there will be lots of excitement

:06:30.:06:33.

and hubbub but nothing concrete can happen for a while. Elections in

:06:34.:06:37.

France in May, elections in Germany which could really result in a

:06:38.:06:41.

change of Government... That is the big change, Mrs Merkel might not be

:06:42.:06:53.

there by October. And who foresaw that a few months ago? So you might

:06:54.:06:56.

be into 28 Dean before you are into the substantive discussions about

:06:57.:06:58.

how much market access or regulatory observance. I cannot see it being

:06:59.:07:01.

completed in two years. I could see, if negotiations are not too

:07:02.:07:04.

acrimonious, that transitional agreement taking place. Let's look

:07:05.:07:08.

at the timetable again. The council doesn't meet until the end of April,

:07:09.:07:12.

it meets in the middle of the French elections, the first round will have

:07:13.:07:16.

taken place, they will need a second round so not much can happen.

:07:17.:07:19.

President Hollande will be representing France, then the new

:07:20.:07:26.

French government, if it is Marine le Pen all bets are off, but even if

:07:27.:07:31.

it is Mr Mac run, he does not have a party, he will not have a majority,

:07:32.:07:35.

the French will take a long while to sort out themselves. Then it is

:07:36.:07:40.

summer, we are off to the Cote d'Azur, particularly the Bolivian

:07:41.:07:43.

elite, then we come back from that and the Germans are in an election,

:07:44.:07:48.

it may be very messy, Mrs Merkel no longer a shoo-in, it could be Mr

:07:49.:07:53.

Schultz, he may have to try to form a difficult green red coalition,

:07:54.:08:05.

that would take a while. Before you know it, it is Guy Fawkes' Day and

:08:06.:08:08.

no substance has taken place, yet we are then less than a year before

:08:09.:08:11.

this has to be decided. It is a big task and I'm sure Jana is right that

:08:12.:08:13.

there will be transitional arrangements and not everything will

:08:14.:08:17.

be concluded in that two year timetable, but in some respects what

:08:18.:08:20.

you have described helps those of us on the Eurosceptic site because it

:08:21.:08:25.

means they cannot really be a meaningful parliamentary vote on the

:08:26.:08:28.

terms of the deal because nothing is going to be agreed quickly enough

:08:29.:08:32.

for them to be able to go back and agree something else if Parliament

:08:33.:08:36.

rejects it, so when the Government eventually have something ready to

:08:37.:08:39.

bring before Parliament it will be a take it or leave it boat. How

:08:40.:08:45.

extraordinary that people who have campaigned. Indeed give us our

:08:46.:08:48.

country back and say, isn't it wonderful, we won't have a

:08:49.:08:51.

meaningful boat for our parliamentarians of the most

:08:52.:08:56.

important... We don't know what the negotiation, the package is, day by

:08:57.:09:00.

day we see more and more complicated areas nobody ever thought about,

:09:01.:09:03.

nobody mentioned during the campaign, all of which has to be

:09:04.:09:10.

resolved and the European Council and the negotiators say nothing is

:09:11.:09:14.

agreed until everything is agreed. You lead us into a catastrophe.

:09:15.:09:20.

There will be plenty of opportunity for Parliament to have its say

:09:21.:09:23.

following the introduction of the Great Repeal Bill, it is not as if

:09:24.:09:27.

there will be no Parliamentary time devoted. The final package is what

:09:28.:09:32.

counts. We have two years to blog about this!

:09:33.:09:38.

There was a big Proview -- pro-EU march yesterday... I was there!

:09:39.:09:47.

Polly Toynbee was there, down to Parliament Square, lots of people

:09:48.:09:51.

there marching in favour of the European Union. We can see the EU

:09:52.:09:56.

flags there on flags, lots of national flags as well, the British

:09:57.:10:02.

one. Polly, is it the aim of people like you still to stop Brexit, or to

:10:03.:10:11.

soften Brexit? I think the aim is for the best you can possibly do to

:10:12.:10:16.

limit the damage. Of course, if it happens that once people have had a

:10:17.:10:19.

chance to see how much they were lied to during the campaign and how

:10:20.:10:23.

dreadful the deal is likely to be, if it happens that enough people in

:10:24.:10:28.

the population have changed their minds, then maybe... There is no

:10:29.:10:33.

sign up yet. But we have not even begun, people have not begun to

:10:34.:10:36.

confront what it is going to mean. Wait and see. I think it is just

:10:37.:10:41.

being as close as we can. Is that credible, do you think, to stop it

:10:42.:10:47.

or to ameliorate it in terms of the Remainers? I think it is far more

:10:48.:10:50.

credible to try and stop it but even then the scope is limited. It is

:10:51.:10:55.

fairly apparent Theresa May's interpretation of the referendum is

:10:56.:10:57.

the country wants an end to free movement, there is probably no way

:10:58.:11:18.

of doing that inside the single market. She also wants external

:11:19.:11:20.

trade deals, no way of doing that outside the customs unit, said the

:11:21.:11:23.

only night you can depend if you are pro-European is, let's not leave

:11:24.:11:25.

without any trade pact, at least let's meet Canada and have a

:11:26.:11:27.

formalised trade agreement. The idea of ace -- of a very soft exit is

:11:28.:11:30.

gone now because the public really did want an end to free movement and

:11:31.:11:33.

the Government really does want external trade deals. It depends

:11:34.:11:35.

what changes in Europe. I think the momentum behind the Remoaning

:11:36.:11:43.

movement will move away. One of the banners I saw being held up

:11:44.:11:48.

yesterday by a young boy on the news was, don't put my daddy on a boat.

:11:49.:11:52.

It gets a lot of its moral force from the uncertainty surrounding the

:11:53.:11:56.

fate of EU nationals here and our resident in the remainder of the EU

:11:57.:12:01.

and I think David Lidington is right that it will be concluded quite

:12:02.:12:05.

quickly once negotiations start and that will take a lot of the heat and

:12:06.:12:09.

momentum out of the remaining movement. Why didn't Theresa May

:12:10.:12:14.

allow that amendment that said, we will do that, as an act of

:12:15.:12:18.

generosity, we will say, of course those European citizens here are

:12:19.:12:22.

welcome to stay? It would have been such a good opening move in the

:12:23.:12:26.

negotiations, instead of which she blocked it. It does not augur well.

:12:27.:12:32.

I have interviewed many Tories about this and put that point to them but

:12:33.:12:36.

they often say the Prime minister's job is to look after UK citizen in

:12:37.:12:43.

the EU... Bargaining chips, I think you have to be generous and you have

:12:44.:12:48.

to wish you people in Spain and everywhere else where there are

:12:49.:12:51.

British citizens would have responded. The British Government

:12:52.:12:54.

did try and raise that with their EU counterparts and were told, we

:12:55.:12:57.

cannot begin to talk about that until article 50 has been triggered.

:12:58.:13:02.

Next week we will be able to talk about it. How generous it would have

:13:03.:13:06.

been, we would have started on a better note. Didn't happen, we will

:13:07.:13:10.

see what happens next with EU citizens. That is it for today, the

:13:11.:13:14.

Daily Politics will be back tomorrow at midday and every day next week on

:13:15.:13:16.

BBC Two as always. And there's also a Question Time

:13:17.:13:19.

special live tomorrow night from Birmingham -

:13:20.:13:21.

with guests including the Brexit Secretary David Davis,

:13:22.:13:23.

Labour's Keir Starmer, former Ukip leader Nigel Farage

:13:24.:13:25.

and the SNP's Alex Salmond - I'll be back next week

:13:26.:13:28.

at 11am here on BBC One. Until then, remember -

:13:29.:13:33.

if it's Sunday, it's

:13:34.:13:37.

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