Browse content similar to 08/03/2017. Check below for episodes and series from the same categories and more!
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coming in for his injured Ulster team-mate Andrew Trimble Rob Kearney | :00:00. | 3:59:59 | |
picked upn a groin injury in their win over the French | :00:00. | :00:00. | |
Hello and welcome to our look ahead to what the the papers will be | :00:00. | :00:18. | |
With me are Ruth Lea, Economic Adviser at Arbuthnot | :00:19. | :00:21. | |
Banking Group, and Caroline Wheeler, Political Editor at | :00:22. | :00:24. | |
Good to see you both, it has been an interesting day. We start with the | :00:25. | :00:40. | |
Telegraph and its take on the budget is the Tories have broken their | :00:41. | :00:44. | |
manifesto pledge not to raise taxes. The Guardian described the | :00:45. | :00:49. | |
Chancellor is falling into a tax trap over his approach to national | :00:50. | :00:58. | |
insurance. The Times describes the policy as a tax on red, while the | :00:59. | :01:08. | |
express says Philip Philip Hammond is laying down the tracks for the | :01:09. | :01:19. | |
Brexit move. The Daily Express asks what is so funny. The mail shows a | :01:20. | :01:26. | |
picture of Philip Hammond and says it is no laughing matter. All the | :01:27. | :01:29. | |
references are to joked and laughed. This is a man who is supposed to be | :01:30. | :01:39. | |
very dour, a spreadsheet guy, a policy wonk, but he is cracking | :01:40. | :01:44. | |
jokes as if he was Les Dawson. The most surprising thing about his | :01:45. | :01:50. | |
budget speech was that because we knew it. We knew there would be | :01:51. | :01:56. | |
extra money for social care, education, Betty level, or help for | :01:57. | :02:03. | |
business rates. We read about the national insurance contributions | :02:04. | :02:08. | |
rising and we knew the OBR would be changing their forecast. So the | :02:09. | :02:15. | |
jokes were the surprise. But still it has to be said, Caroline, the | :02:16. | :02:20. | |
front page of The Times, Philip Hammond's ?2 billion tax rate. The | :02:21. | :02:24. | |
indications were that this was going to happen, he was going to have to | :02:25. | :02:30. | |
do something about social care and he would have to find the money | :02:31. | :02:37. | |
somewhere and that national insurers would be the area that was hit, but | :02:38. | :03:01. | |
it was still a shock. We had an indication this was | :03:02. | :03:02. | |
thinking was going. It is surprising the Conservative Chancellor would | :03:03. | :03:04. | |
electricians, the make-up artists who have just done our make up. The | :03:05. | :03:10. | |
idea is was that an impact assessment done on this? Theresa May | :03:11. | :03:15. | |
said she was a country that works for everyone and not just the | :03:16. | :03:20. | |
does not extend to those people who does not extend to those people who | :03:21. | :03:24. | |
are self employed seem surprising to many of us, that these are the | :03:25. | :03:28. | |
losers of this budget, when there will be many of those who are in the | :03:29. | :03:35. | |
bracket. Also people who are running their own businesses who are self | :03:36. | :03:39. | |
employed, many of them are the backbone of this country, the small | :03:40. | :03:43. | |
shopkeepers, the people who do all those jobs that we need them to do. | :03:44. | :03:48. | |
The idea they will be worse off as a result of this is a surprise. I got | :03:49. | :03:55. | |
a tweet earlier saying the BBC, the BBC, you are so negative about the | :03:56. | :04:00. | |
budget. I am self employed, I do not mind paying a little extra because | :04:01. | :04:06. | |
the money will go to social care. That is very generous of that | :04:07. | :04:10. | |
particular lady, but I would like to add to what Caroline said about the | :04:11. | :04:14. | |
self employed. It is not just national insurance contributions | :04:15. | :04:18. | |
that will be increased. There is the dividend allowance and if you are an | :04:19. | :04:24. | |
incorporated self-employed person you can pay a dividend. The current | :04:25. | :04:29. | |
allowance is ?5,000 and it will be cut down to ?2000. Plus the flat | :04:30. | :04:36. | |
rate VAT scheme which is rather technical, there will be a | :04:37. | :04:40. | |
disadvantage there. For the self employed, and I include myself in | :04:41. | :04:45. | |
that bracket, there are now three different measures which have made | :04:46. | :04:52. | |
it more difficult for people to be self-employed and to produce the | :04:53. | :04:56. | |
incentive is to be self-employed. It is already difficult because you do | :04:57. | :04:59. | |
not get holiday pay, sick pay, maternity pay. But that is part of | :05:00. | :05:06. | |
the argument. What he is doing, as well as finding money for social | :05:07. | :05:09. | |
care, is bringing parity between those who are employed with staff | :05:10. | :05:16. | |
jobs and contracts and those who are freelance because they have been out | :05:17. | :05:21. | |
of kilter. In terms of what they pay, but in terms of the benefits, | :05:22. | :05:26. | |
he says they can get away with it because they have already tinkered | :05:27. | :05:32. | |
with the state pension. The self-employed are now entitled to a | :05:33. | :05:38. | |
full state pension. But if I am sick and I work for a company, I will be | :05:39. | :05:44. | |
paid. It is a hassle being self employed, not least of all doing the | :05:45. | :05:50. | |
VAT returns. I feel I deserve that bit of extra money! It is a hassle | :05:51. | :05:56. | |
being self-employed. Let's go on to the Daily Telegraph. In this story | :05:57. | :06:03. | |
it is the fact that before the 20 15th election the Conservatives said | :06:04. | :06:07. | |
they would not raise taxes. In fact, the Daily Telegraph has on the front | :06:08. | :06:13. | |
very commitment to you from that manifesto, no increases in VAT, | :06:14. | :06:19. | |
national insurance contributions and income tax. They have broken a | :06:20. | :06:25. | |
promise. I am afraid they have. If I may change the subject, I agree with | :06:26. | :06:29. | |
that... You want to talk about Barcelona winning? It is interesting | :06:30. | :06:36. | |
income tax is mentioned. What did not come out in this budget is that | :06:37. | :06:43. | |
personal allowances will go up and April ?211,500 and the high rates | :06:44. | :06:46. | |
will go up and that was not mentioned at all. If I had been | :06:47. | :06:53. | |
Philip Hammond, I would have set I have got a nasty surprise for the | :06:54. | :06:58. | |
self employed, but do not worry, I am putting personal allowances up. | :06:59. | :07:02. | |
He mentioned the living wage is going up to ?7.50. He could have | :07:03. | :07:10. | |
sugared the bill a bit. You are right about the tax break, but it is | :07:11. | :07:15. | |
more than that, it is an ideological break which is something we have | :07:16. | :07:19. | |
seen to read a good time and time again. From the moment she appointed | :07:20. | :07:25. | |
her own Cabinet and sacked all the Notting Hill set and brought in her | :07:26. | :07:29. | |
own people, she signalled a break with the camera an agenda which was | :07:30. | :07:33. | |
very much in tune with George Osborne in terms of bringing taxes | :07:34. | :07:38. | |
down and making the state as small as possible. It seems Philip Hammond | :07:39. | :07:43. | |
is cut from a different cloth. Allister Heath's commentary in the | :07:44. | :07:46. | |
Telegraph is very much talking about this idea that there are two camps. | :07:47. | :07:52. | |
Those who believe the state should be involved and they should raise | :07:53. | :07:57. | |
lots of taxes and do lots of things, and those who think you should step | :07:58. | :08:01. | |
back and keep taxes low and let other sectors take on | :08:02. | :08:04. | |
responsibility. Theresa May and Philip Hammond believed they can get | :08:05. | :08:10. | |
away with breaking a policy pledge because there is no one to pick them | :08:11. | :08:16. | |
up on it. Is that the implication? The Labour Party are whatever and | :08:17. | :08:22. | |
the SNP have however many MPs, but they can get away with it. That is | :08:23. | :08:30. | |
right. The Labour Party is polling 25%, that is extraordinary. Labour | :08:31. | :08:43. | |
and the opposition generally are pretty good at flagging up | :08:44. | :08:44. | |
warning signs. They have been going on for several weeks about the rate | :08:45. | :08:49. | |
rises, so they were on message today. They saw that storm brewing | :08:50. | :08:54. | |
and they headed it off today. They put in changes to business rates | :08:55. | :08:59. | |
which have been causing such as headache to the government in these | :09:00. | :09:05. | |
last couple of weeks. But what they did not do with this one is the | :09:06. | :09:09. | |
opposition were not on the ball enough to see this coming, so the | :09:10. | :09:13. | |
government did not get the warning signs they would often get when they | :09:14. | :09:17. | |
could see that they are walking into trouble. When I read about the | :09:18. | :09:22. | |
national insurance contributions last week it was described as | :09:23. | :09:26. | |
controversial. It was not as if this was not controversial... Clearly | :09:27. | :09:31. | |
they did not make anything out of it. They have already won a | :09:32. | :09:39. | |
by-election. Copeland. In a way they should not have done. But on the | :09:40. | :09:43. | |
front page of the Guardian, Philip Hammond falls into a tax trap. What | :09:44. | :09:48. | |
are they trying to get across? It is the notion that they have broken a | :09:49. | :09:54. | |
manifesto pledge which in political terms is a no-no. They cannot be | :09:55. | :10:03. | |
trusted. Exactly. It is you implicating and implementing | :10:04. | :10:06. | |
something which you yourself have said is bad. In that sense it is a | :10:07. | :10:11. | |
trap. Again we come back to who is going to pull them up on this trap? | :10:12. | :10:17. | |
Is the Labour Party going to be able to make enough noise on this issue | :10:18. | :10:22. | |
that it will force Philip Hammond into a U-turn. In this instance you | :10:23. | :10:28. | |
will see more of a noise on the Conservative backbenchers because | :10:29. | :10:30. | |
they know they will harm more of their own. We have already seen | :10:31. | :10:36. | |
rumblings in the 1922 committee, which is usually a barometer of | :10:37. | :10:39. | |
where things stand in the Conservative Party and people like | :10:40. | :10:44. | |
John Redwood have been speaking this evening saying it was a daft idea, a | :10:45. | :10:50. | |
tax on enterprise. That is the trap and it is if he will get out of it | :10:51. | :10:55. | |
now. I do not think he will do a U-turn. Most of the papers are | :10:56. | :11:00. | |
running on the same story. That is the irony. There is something about | :11:01. | :11:08. | |
the economy as well. Some of this money is going to social care, that | :11:09. | :11:13. | |
was a big issue going into the budget. He has made an effort to try | :11:14. | :11:18. | |
and deal with that, although many people are saying 3 million over the | :11:19. | :11:23. | |
next few years, 1 million this year and 2 million later on, that is not | :11:24. | :11:28. | |
enough. It cannot be enough, especially in the longer term | :11:29. | :11:33. | |
dealing with an ageing population. I think funding social care and the | :11:34. | :11:38. | |
paper they are bringing out is well overdue. The truth is we have to | :11:39. | :11:43. | |
think very hard as we get an ageing population how we will fund social | :11:44. | :11:49. | |
care and the NHS. This debate has hardly begun. We need to have it. It | :11:50. | :11:55. | |
is difficult for him if you have this kind of red as it is being | :11:56. | :12:04. | |
portrayed. Despite van man. That is the front page. The Sun newspaper is | :12:05. | :12:11. | |
making the point that the Chancellor is hitting the self employed. We | :12:12. | :12:17. | |
have seen the number of self-employed rise dramatically in | :12:18. | :12:21. | |
the last few years. It is appealing to its readers, many of whom are | :12:22. | :12:26. | |
white van men and women. They have been hit by this. The problem he has | :12:27. | :12:34. | |
got is that self-employed people fall into every walk of life. They | :12:35. | :12:38. | |
will be people earning lots of money right at the top like barristers. | :12:39. | :12:44. | |
But the problem he has got is the notion he is kind of robbing Peter | :12:45. | :12:48. | |
to pay Paul in terms of the social care crisis and the problem he stuck | :12:49. | :12:53. | |
with it he has not solved the social care crisis. 1 billion pounds this | :12:54. | :13:00. | |
year is less than a third of what the local authorities are predicting | :13:01. | :13:03. | |
is the black hole in the funding formula for this year alone. He is | :13:04. | :13:09. | |
not solving one problem by creating another and that will be a political | :13:10. | :13:14. | |
nightmare for him. Tax raid on the self-employed, it is smoke and | :13:15. | :13:19. | |
mirrors. It looks as if he is doing something and this 1 billion this | :13:20. | :13:24. | |
year to immediately inject some cash in the system will help. I know some | :13:25. | :13:29. | |
local authorities are pleased about that, but there has to be a | :13:30. | :13:34. | |
strategic vision about where we go in terms of social care stop | :13:35. | :13:40. | |
absolutely and this is why I will be interested to see the green paper | :13:41. | :13:44. | |
when it comes out. There has been a debate, but it has not been pushed | :13:45. | :13:49. | |
hard enough. It is not a new issue and a lot of reports have looked | :13:50. | :13:52. | |
into this subject, but nothing substantive has changed. I wrote a | :13:53. | :13:59. | |
piece on the NHS 15 years ago saying it was not sustainable because we | :14:00. | :14:03. | |
had an ageing population and increasingly expensive treatments | :14:04. | :14:07. | |
and it was pushed into the long grass. Those issues will come back | :14:08. | :14:12. | |
time and time again. That statistic is really striking, every child at | :14:13. | :14:20. | |
this point today, one in three, will live to about 100. On that very | :14:21. | :14:28. | |
population, ageing by the minute. It population, ageing by the minute. It | :14:29. | :14:31. | |
is a bottomless pit. This is why you is a bottomless pit. This is why you | :14:32. | :14:38. | |
have to start thinking of other means of financing that and | :14:39. | :14:49. | |
inevitably it will be some sort of insurance system. The Daily Express. | :14:50. | :14:49. | |
The wider implications budget. This is paving the way for a | :14:50. | :14:54. | |
smooth EU exit. Cautious Philip Hammond repairs Britain to break | :14:55. | :14:57. | |
with Brussels. That is really the autumn budget. Article 50 will have | :14:58. | :15:06. | |
been triggered. Yes, absolutely. It is a different interpretation of the | :15:07. | :15:10. | |
same story, but they have tried to put a slightly more positive spin on | :15:11. | :15:14. | |
it, although they have the same strapline. What they are trying to | :15:15. | :15:24. | |
suggest is the forecasts in terms of government spending forecasts have | :15:25. | :15:27. | |
been pessimistic. We know Brexit looks a bit rosier than we thought, | :15:28. | :15:32. | |
which gives us a float as we set sail for Brexit. Set sail! It could | :15:33. | :15:40. | |
happen in a week that we trigger Article 50. There are other | :15:41. | :15:45. | |
suggestions it may not be until the end of the month. But the idea that | :15:46. | :15:49. | |
we are going into this project is a bit of a leap in the unknown with | :15:50. | :15:55. | |
the wind in our sales from the economy is something the Daily | :15:56. | :15:57. | |
Express feels their readers want to read about. Because of the OBR's | :15:58. | :16:04. | |
favourable forecast for the next 12 months at least he has got a bit | :16:05. | :16:09. | |
more petrol in the tank as well, but he will not splash it out. He will | :16:10. | :16:14. | |
save it in case the headwinds do get a bit choppy. He is right to do | :16:15. | :16:21. | |
that. Even if it was not for Brexit, we need fiscal discipline in this | :16:22. | :16:26. | |
country. We have still got a deficit of 2.5% of the GDP. Our debt is | :16:27. | :16:34. | |
about 85% of GDP, it is enormous. You would still need some austerity. | :16:35. | :16:40. | |
But this story is interesting because the OBR has been obliged to | :16:41. | :16:46. | |
push up its forecast to 2%. Yet again he is forecasting | :16:47. | :16:49. | |
organisations have been caught by the fact they were all terribly | :16:50. | :16:53. | |
negative about what was going to happen. I was saying it was going to | :16:54. | :16:59. | |
be fine. I was a maverick. If you are a maverick and you are wrong, | :17:00. | :17:04. | |
you are wrong. If you are a group thinker and you are wrong, you are | :17:05. | :17:09. | |
right. The predictions were on Article 50 being triggered on June | :17:10. | :17:15. | |
the 25th. And a lot were not. That is true. It would not have made any | :17:16. | :17:25. | |
difference. We will never know. Finally, we are going to mix | :17:26. | :17:28. | |
together the Daily Mail and the Daily Mirror and show our viewers | :17:29. | :17:35. | |
what the front pages are saying. Here they come. The Daily Mirror on | :17:36. | :17:44. | |
the left. What is so funny, Prime Minister? The Daily Mail, | :17:45. | :17:47. | |
laughing matter. Both of them are making the point that he tried to | :17:48. | :17:49. | |
put some jokes in their anti-tried to look beyond the spreadsheet Phil | :17:50. | :17:56. | |
policy geek label, but fundamentally this was a crucial budget in terms | :17:57. | :18:02. | |
of the way that this government looks as it moves towards Brexit. | :18:03. | :18:10. | |
Yes, exactly. Both of them are not normal bedfellows, the Daily Mirror | :18:11. | :18:13. | |
and the Daily Mail. But we have got the same gist. We have got Theresa | :18:14. | :18:18. | |
May and Philip Hammond laughing and the message is that the message that | :18:19. | :18:24. | |
comes out of the budget will not go down particularly well with the | :18:25. | :18:27. | |
readers of the Daily Mirror and the Daily Mail. That is something for | :18:28. | :18:32. | |
the government to worry about. When you are getting papers that are | :18:33. | :18:35. | |
diametrically opposed and they are using the same line, you basically | :18:36. | :18:40. | |
offended both sides of the divide and that is very worrying for her as | :18:41. | :18:45. | |
we are so close to Brexit when we will need all the support we can | :18:46. | :18:54. | |
have. I have been told we have got to end, so there you go. It has been | :18:55. | :18:59. | |
a pleasure looking at some of the stories behind the front pages. All | :19:00. | :19:05. | |
of them have simply been about the budget. | :19:06. | :19:07. | |
Don't forget you can see the front pages of the papers online | :19:08. | :19:10. | |
It's all there for you, seven days a week at bbc.couk/papers. | :19:11. | :19:14. | |
If you miss the programme any evening, you can watch it | :19:15. | :19:17. |