22/03/2017 The Wales Report

Good evening. This week the recent maid came to Swansea to get on with

a city deal. A clear sign they say that she is committed to keeping the

nations of the UK together How does that square

with the prospect of And how will pressure

from the Scottish government ? for a new referendum on independence

? affect the path ahead? Remember you can have your say -

join in the debate on Twitter. This week - the possibility

of a second independence referendum in Scotland seems ever more likely ?

today the Scottish parliament has backed Nicola Sturgeon's call,

placing a question mark over But Welsh Secretary Alun Cairns

says the Prime Minister is committed to the Union,

and to getting the best deal for everyone -

and that talk of breaking up the UK could in fact undermine

Brexit negotiations. I think the more we talk about

constitutional change in the UK that am nervous investors and we need to

be in the strongest position possible to demonstrate to the world

that we can attract investment, so clearly we want to negotiate with

the European Union and we want the warmest of relationships and we want

them to be able to trade with us and the same way we train to them but it

is about getting a plan that works for every part of the UK and

constitutional debates and upheaval is not helpful because that creates

uncertainty. But First Minister Carwyn Jones has

told this programme that the UK constitution must be modernised

so it works for each of the four nations,

or Scottish independence could just be the beginning of Theresa May's

constitutional woes. What worries me is not the situation

now but what might happen in the future. If the Scots leave the UK

and they hope they don't, what is left is quite unbalanced and it

would need to be rebalanced to be effective. I fear England than

saying we will go off on our own as a country. It sounds strange but

lots of strange things are possible with that seismic shift in the way

politics operates on these islands. That puts Wales in a position but

having no choice but going in a certain direction. I don't want to

see that. I would rather a partnership of four nations working

together towards a common purpose. So, where next for the UK

and Wales' place within it? Earlier I spoke to the leader

of Plaid Cymru, Leanne Wood. If the Scots do vote to become an

independent countries in the UK will no longer exist, and so that should

be the time where in Wales we have a conversation about where we want to

go individual. There is a danger I think that we would be dragged into

some sort of England and Wales entity where the Welsh national

interest becomes completely subsumed and there are alternatives to going

down that road and I think that all of those alternatives should be on

the table and that people in Wales should have the option to vote for

those alternatives in a referendum. How many alternatives either? There

are a range of alternatives. Already 43% of people in opinion polls want

to see Wales have more powers. Obviously the question of

independence for Wales and there may be other options that we have yet to

even talk about the point is we need to have a discussion about our

future and its people in Wales who should decide what that future looks

like. When you talk about independence for some people but is

and the notion that scares them and for others it is exciting but that

has been traditionally if we believe polls a very small minority of

people in Wales. What gives you any confidence that that could change

even if Scotland votes in a certain way? We have seen since the Brexit

but opinion polls have shown that there may be more people open to

considering what an independent Wales might look like and even the

First Minister has said that if Theresa May ploughs ahead with a

hard Brexit and doesn't listen to the needs of people in Wales and

Scotland then independence is something that could become more

popular amongst the public, so that is something that isn't there on the

table and it is clear that the status quo is not delivering for

Wales. It is simply unacceptable that average wages in Wales are 10%

of the average for the UK, at 23% of people living in Wales are living in

poverty and we don't have the tools to do something about that, so the

next step for us may be enhanced economic powers so that we can turn

around the economic position but ultimately I believe that decisions

about Wales are best taken in Wales and it is only people in Wales that

will have their best interests at heart at all times. I don't want to

get stuck in terminology, people in your party say the use of the word

independent is not helpful and that it is old-fashioned and an

old-fashioned concept, but if you talk about a more federal settlement

with UK with more powers for Cardiff and Edinburgh and Belfast, that is a

much more modern and understandable concept, so why are you still wedded

to this notion of independence? That may be a staging post through the

journey but I think it is not right to say people don't understand what

independence is. With the debate that happened in Scotland in 2014

and the debate now it is clear what an independent Scotland means and

the same for Wales, it means having the powers to decide for yourself.

Of course there will always be reasons to collaborate and cooperate

with other countries much as we have been doing in the European Union,

and the same I would imagine would take place on a UK basis beyond

Scottish independence and beyond Welsh independence. There are things

were it is in all of our interests to work together on but that should

be on the basis of equality, a partnership of equals, as opposed to

the unequal situation we are in now. Partnership of equals, equality,

this is exactly the case that Gordon Brown has been meeting recently. He

is not making the case for independence, it is a much more

equitable settlement with the in the current United Kingdom so where are

you differing here if you talk about powers that are assured of fairly,

but for you is the problem with retaining the union but getting more

powers within it? We have heard all this before. Gordon Brown was one of

the people who spoke ahead of the Scottish referendum in 2014,

remember the bow that was promised the people in Scotland. That didn't

really materialise to much and so I am pretty sure that you will be

quite cynical. If we look ahead to the exit talks, how does Wales

secure a loud enough and an assertive enough voice in those

talks and are you concerned at the end of the day that if that voice is

interred very clearly the outcome for Wales could be less than

advantageous? Very concerned about that. It appears to me that the

Prime Minister is not really listening to the needs of the nation

's that make up the UK, she is on her part and she seems to be

determined to see that pass through. Plaid Cymru has worked with the

worst government to put together the white paper outlining exactly what

the best interests of Wales would be in those negotiations and I am

looking all the time for evidence that some of those messages in that

white paper are coming through, for example it is really important for

Wales and the Welsh economy for us to retain or membership of the

single market. We are a big exporting nation and 67% of all our

exports to the European single market. It looks like the Prime

Minister isn't taking that view as seriously as she could be and for

the Scots that means that she is going to plough ahead with a hard

Brexit, there are serious consequences to that. Union

membership, not access? Because that has been ruled out. In the white

paper we have called for participation in the single market

and what that means... Which is very different membership. The bottom

line for us is tariff free access and no extra costs one Welsh

businesses. That is the kind of thing that would put jobs under

threat. Those companies can't afford those extra costs. That is the

bottom line but there are many demands in that white paper,

including to give guarantees to EU citizens who are already living and

working here, guarantees for students to travel freely for

example, there are key industries and sectors in Wales where we need

workers from abroad at least in the short term and we don't want to see

those industries and sectors hampered. The NHS is a proud simple.

It may be that the interests of the south-east of England are not

exactly the same as those of Wales, but the Prime Minister represents

the whole of the UK, she has said that she will consult with Wales and

Scotland. I have yet to see any evidence of that consultation or to

understand exactly what that means. One of the key themes, as you know

only too well, has been to do with freedom of movement. There has been

a big debate. If voters as Cuba Plaid Cymru stance on freedom of

movement, given the concerns expressed in the referendum last

year, what did you say to them? I have said to them right through the

debate that the debate around immigration in Wales is very

different to that in parts of England. The numbers here are very

small. You could fit every single EU national deserving in Wales in the

Millennium Stadium. -- that is living in Wales. As many of them

work in key sectors as I have already mentioned the NHS, so we

want to protect those sectors and the livelihoods of people who live

here. I accept that many people want to see the immigration rules

tightened up, and in the white paper that we drew up with the Welsh

Government we called for in that a Norwegian style system. In no way

freedom of movement carries on but it is linked to having a job in that

country. You can go to find a job there but the time is limited. That

would enable you to ensure you got the key staff for those key sectors

and that there wouldn't be major problems in our economy as a result

of a complete cut-off at some point. What would you say to your critics

who say that Plaid Cymru will be performing much more strongly at the

moment had you shown a willingness to understand or to show that you

understood concerns about immigration over recent years?

Peoples about immigration are in the main a perception problem. --

concerns about them immigration. They are imagine it? That is thing

to say. When you think about how people voted and how they express

their opinions it is quite a thing to say they are fantasising? When

you look at tabloid newspapers there are stories are stories and stories

about ways in which immigrants have done wrong things and bad things and

illegal things and that builds up a picture over time. It may be that

there are some problems in some parts of the UK, but in Wales we

don't have those problems. People do have a perception that there is a

problem, this offer for example from low wages or frozen wages of data

might not be able to get housing or they may have to wait for a health

appointment, and many people believe that those problems are there

because of the migration. When you look at the facts and the evidence

there are other reasons behind those problems. If we want to tackle those

problems we have to actually tackle the real problems and not a

perception. Because we could end up throwing out every single immigrant

from Wales, making them go home and sending them back on boats and

planes and still people would have those same problems. They wouldn't

be resolved. So rather than cause absolute mayhem and upheaval in

people's lives, let's have a sensible approach to freedom of

movement and that have a policy that meets our needs in the Welsh

economy. Thank you for talking to us.

A new Swansea Bay City deal was signed this week,

promising ?1.3 billion of investment for the region of South West Wales.

Everyone seems to agree it's welcome news ? if somewhat overdue given

the economic challenges of the region - and it's

highlighted the challenges in other parts of Wales.

More than 1000 jobs are seen to be at risk at the Ford factory

in Bridgend ? and Tata Steel workers have already voted to cut

their pension entitlement to protect their job prospects.

In an ever more competitive global economy, there's renewed debate

about what the state can do to sustain jobs in industry.

In a moment, I'll be talking the Economy Secretary Ken Skates.

But first, we invited someone with a very different

perspective to Mr Skates, Professor Patrick Minford,

former economic advisor to Margaret Thatcher,

to an industrial warehouse on the outskirts of Cardiff

to examine Wales' place in the global economy.

Wales is, as we know, adjusted from a very different industrial past.

The economy is constantly adjusting. In 1970 35% of jobs were in

manufacturing, metal bashing. They had no long-term future, today it is

8%. The UK economy has been changing throughout that period towards

high-tech manufacturing. Jobs are lost in those parts of the economy

that are declining because they cannot meet the competitive pressure

from abroad. We don't know exactly which sectors will be rich, but as a

nation we are best of having the institutions that allow the good

industries to expand and that can compete and allow the other

industries to decline. The fundamental role of government is to

create a business friendly environment. The basic point about

free trade is it gives a consumer the best prices in the world for

what they want to buy. And then the idea is we then complete against the

world and produced the things we are best that. That way, we get a double

bonus. The consumer gets the best prices and we get the highest

productivity by concentrating on the industries we are best at. The

government tries to sort of stop things happening, it will lower

living standards and disappoint the people of Wales.

I'm joined now by Ken Skates, Cabinet Secretary for the Economy

and Infrastructure, about his new strategy

Thank you for coming in. The talk was old sectors, and you are talking

about regions, focusing on the economy of a place, if you like. Why

have you changed focus? The sectors have proved to be incredibly

successful and now it is time to refocus and make sure we take out

the unevenness of economic growth across Wales. We are setting out a

vision that will resolve the unequal growth of the economy across Wales

by sorting out the foundation, the foundation of every economy so

people are equipped with the skills to get into work. They have rapid

transport to get to work and other challenges resolved, such as

childcare pressures. But we need to invest in those high-tech economies

of tomorrow where we know we have capabilities and specialties at the

moment. It could be in financial technology in the south-east. It

could be in advanced aerospace in the north-east or in nuclear in the

north-west. We are already leading the world in some areas, we need to

make sure we take the transition from today to tomorrow to make sure

we are still reading. When you look at the deal that has been set up in

Swansea, there are people saying, this isn't in line with the spirit

of the original concept. There is not enough investment in

infrastructure, not enough investment in people, this is more

about buildings and show economy. Is there a bit, an element of truth in

that argument and are you not investing still in things that need

investment? I am excited about the deal for the Swansea region. Because

it identifies where the future of the regional economy will grow. That

is going to be on the back of digital technology, new and emerging

technologies to make sure the economy of that region is future

proof, to make sure it remains at the cutting edge of manufacturing. I

am excited about the prospects for the region, given the deal. I would

say we now need to look at UK governments and North Wales agreeing

on a growth deal as well. That has to be completed sooner, rather than

later. In a matter of months? I would like it completed in a matter

of months. There is a meeting in June, so North Wales can gain the

same benefits and then we have three primary motors for the Welsh economy

that can drive economic growth right across communities. Can we talk

about the quality of jobs, because that is important. And the

announcement of a major new prison in Port Talbot. Adam Price saying

turning Wales into a vast super prison for the English justice

system is not the economic future we need or deserve. Does he have a

point? No, he doesn't. He is rejecting the idea of creating

wealth and opportunity in Wales of the back of a sustainable economy.

It is not the first prison? The prison near Wrexham, the facilities

to build that prison was provided to the local workforce and it provided

opportunity to create wealth in the area. There will be taxi firms,

hospitality businesses, there will be a whole host of opportunities for

the skills training sector to make sure they can benefit from the spin

off of that prison. I am sure if we can get the Ministry of Justice to

apply the same sort of conditions to the proposal for the prison in south

Wales, then there will be considerable economic benefits for

the communities in that area. Let's talk about economic problems in the

Brexit process. More talk this week about the fact some ministers and

government, in Theresa May's government, are openly considering

the prospect of no deal at the end of this process and fall back on WTO

regulations. What would that mean for Wales? That is, in my view,

would be nothing short of a disaster. We have had government

ministers assuring everybody that everything will be fine after the

divorce and the two-year negotiations. We need transitions

back and give security and assurances to businesses in Wales

and across the UK. Reverting to World Trade Organisation rules would

not be in our interests. I would also suggest the Prime Minister

backs the likes of Michael Heseltine, rather than Liam Fox

because it is essential we get the best deal with Europe, maintaining

tariff free arrangements and ensuring we don't have any other

technical barriers. It is time more of those realistic figures within

the Conservative Party at Westminster stand up for what they

believe in. Talking about people use sacks. She has made the decision on

that perspective. When you look at the negotiations ahead, as we

understand it, the Welsh government wasn't even informed about the data

Article 50 will be triggered. What does that tell you about your

chances of having a meaningful voice in that debate? I would say to the

UK Government, the Welsh government has been clear about what it is we

need but the whole of the UK. If they are not listening, there is not

much point is there? We want the UK Government to use the language the

Welsh government have been using for months, free unfettered access.

Access to the single market. They are now listening. If they are

listening to others then the UK Government should be listening on

the detail. We stand to work with them that they have to be open to

working with us in a genuine and meaningful way, not just paying us

lip service. As we leave the EU, we need to remain strong as a nation.

We can only do that is if Wales is respected, Scotland is respected

Northern Ireland and the regions of England. George Osborne said we were

all in it together, well, we are in this. Are you saying the terms of

the political debate about Wales' future could change significantly in

relation to the rest of the UK if there is a perception Wales is not

being listened to last remark it is a risk, I hope it can be avoided. It

can be avoided if the First Minister acts upon those concerns swiftly. It

is no good the Prime Minister giving the Welsh government late notice of

its intentions. We must be there with clear purpose and the best way

to ensure that is by having us in the room influencing the outcome of

negotiators at every step. If they refuse to do that, it could have

damaging consequences on the relationship between the nations.

Minister, thank you for coming in. Let's talk about Brexit and its

potential ramifications. We will talk to two experts. We have David

Torrance and Professor Laura McAllister. First of all, the

question of a voice for Wales and Scotland in the Brexit process.

Theresa May has said she is listening and will take those views

into account. What does the form tell us so far? It is pretty

damning. The most damning indictment of how little Wales has been

listened to was from the Welsh government minister last week who

talked about a pretty dreadful catalogue of ignorance with regards

to involving Wales in this process. There hasn't been any sign Theresa

May and her cabinet are taking the issue of the devolved

administrations voices seriously. I see little prospect of that

changing. Although the Scottish independence referendum does shift

the ground. How does that change the way Scottish input is seen? It

certainly means Scotland has a pretty direct and loud voice into

that debate, if not the process of the UK extracting itself from the

EU. As Laura says, I don't think the UK Government has covered itself in

glory on this front. They apparently forgot to inform the Scottish

Government it was triggering Article 50 next week. At the same time,

people in London at Westminster tell their own story of trying to engage

with the Scottish Government ministers on certain policy areas,

agriculture and fisheries for example, and not getting anywhere

fast. So there is two sides to that story. Laura, are the terms of

Wales's future change because of Scotland? Brexit was always going to

have an impact across the UK but the call for a Scottish referendum has

moved the agenda in a different way. I think I can pick up on that

quickly from what the First Minister has said. He has talked about the

need for being a dividend for a Unionist government, like the Welsh

government from the Brexit negotiations. That is hugely

problematic. Ideological positions between a Unionist government in

Wales and a Unionist government at a UK level, they are concept of what

Brexit means. I don't see how that can play out for Wales. What has

done, it has moved Welsh politics into an interesting territory, which

is where Scotland were a few years ago. Nationalism and independents

are not the same things. As the SNP have shown, people can vote for

nationalist parties who are not traditional nationalist. The agenda

around the degree of independence a country has become is very fluid.

That is the kind of Beit debate we will be having in Wales. I want to

feed into that by asking David the Unionist case to be made again by

Gordon Brown which turned out to be rather important last time round in

2014? The problem with Gordon Brown's intervention is he has made

it several times since 2014. I think intellectually, the case for a

federal UK is a very strong one. But unfortunately for the Labour Party

and the Scottish Labour Party, they simply aren't taking us seriously as

they were a few years ago. However cogent that case, the audience

simply isn't there. Is the word independent now far less helpful

than it was in the past, in terms of the nationalist case? Lots of people

regard the concept of independence as a threat, they don't regard it as

something that is remotely attractive? A federal settlement

might, for some people, make more sense, what is your view? The

concept of independence is outdated. I think the terminology is acronym

stick. If you look at the powers the Scottish Government has now and the

Scottish Parliament more generally, they are close to some degrees of

independence that exist in other European nations. I think the

introduction of the concept of federalism, in fairness to the First

Minister, Carwyn Jones is one of the first voices who talked about

federalism in 2012. The problem is, as David said, the Labour Party

generally across the UK has very little status or profile in this

debate. The different reasons, Wales is generally ignored and Scotland's

Labour Party has been decimated by the Scottish Nationalists party. But

the lack of constitutional debate is changing. If we hang on to this, are

you for or against independence, we are missing some important nuances.

I think the public may be ahead of the politicians on this. Thank you

both for joining us. If you'd like to get in touch

with us about what's been discussed tonight or anything else,

email us at [email protected],

or follow us on social media ? where the discussion continues -

the hashtag is #TheWalesReport. Thanks for watching. Have a good

night.