17/03/2017 Politics Europe


17/03/2017

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Hello, and welcome to Politics Europe, your regular guide to the

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top stories in Brussels and Strasbourg. On today's programme,

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the bill allowing Theresa are made to trigger Article 50 is now a law.

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What will be the next move? How will the EU respond? The head of the EU

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Commission unveils his blueprint for the EU without Britain. The European

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Court of Justice rules companies can ban workers from wearing a

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headscarf. Have people given in the religious discrimination? And waking

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up is not always easy to do. What can Czechoslovakia's velvet divorce

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tell us about Brexit? All of that to come and more in the next half-hour.

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First, our guide to the latest from Europe in just 60 seconds. The Dutch

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Prime Minister, Mark Rutte, celebrated victory in his country's

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election, easily defeating Geert Wilders. And there was a diplomatic

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row with Turkey and Germany. We will never accept a comparison between

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the Nazis and the current government. The European Court of

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Human Rights ruled that Hungary unlawfully kept two migrants in a

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transit zone. The Spanish Foreign Minister says an independent

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Scotland will have to join the back of the queue for EU membership.

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Spain's government is worried about the separatist movement in

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Catalonia. The highest court in the EU rules that companies can ban

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scarves on employees. All employees have to dress neutrally. I am joined

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by the UKIP and Conservative MPs. Let us look at the EU ruling. On

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headscarves. What do you think about there? It brings it broadly in line

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with the UK government, as far as I can work out. You cannot ask a mate

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with one culture or at religion. You have to look at all equally. --

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discriminate. Theresa May said she disapproves at PMQs. She said women

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have a right to choose how they dress. That is not what the ruling

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is saying. She is saying she wants to legislate on how people are

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wearing their clothes. And that is right, but all should be treated

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equally and fairly. What do you think? We should not be under the

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jurisdiction of them. Yeah, I got that bit. It is fraught with

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difficulties. First of all, should a company have a dress code? That is

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not an unreasonable thing. This is difficult. It means you cannot wear

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skull caps, Sikh turbans, Christian crosses. What is more pertinent is

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that you have a covering law for face coverings. You have made an

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interesting point, can Sikhs not wear their turbans? Not at all. It

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is giving power to companies to treat all employees fairly. If it

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said no religious symbols at all of any kind, would that... Would the

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Sikhs then be in trouble? As I understand it, the turban is part of

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a religious manifestation for them. They have to justify very clearly

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why they have made this decision, and if they cannot, then they cannot

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impose it. An interesting development. We will see what the

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courts make of it. A lot of the judgement at the end said the

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details need to be sorted out at a national and local level. Yesterday,

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the bill enabling Theresa May to activate Article 50 which will allow

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England to leave the EU got a royal admission. That means they could

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trigger it at the end of the month. What will happen next? Donald Tusk

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said the EU will need just 48 hours to respond to the UK with draft

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guidelines and negotiation. He also said an extraordinary meeting of the

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EU 27, the EU without the United Kingdom, will take base in April,

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possibly May, when European leaders will decide a guideline for the

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negotiating mandate. Only once it is agreed will the official

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negotiations began, maybe sometime in June or July. Lots of elections

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getting in the way of this in Europe. The bill above will be top

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priorities. Both sides need an agreement by October, 2018. Angus

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Robertson said that. That will leave enough time for the UK and European

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parliaments to sign off on the terms of the deal. European talks often go

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well beyond their deadline, of course. If there is no agreement,

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there is a chance that Britain could, to use the vernacular, "crash

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out" of the EU. And this man said there was no assessment to his

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satisfaction. Donald Tusk addressed the issue when he addressed the

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European Parliament on Wednesday. I want to be clear that and no deal

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scenario would be bad for everyone. -- A. But above all for the UK. It

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would leave a number of issues unresolved. We will not be

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intimidated by the rats. And I can assure you they were not work. --

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threats. Our goal is to have a smooth divorce and a good framework

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for the future. And it is good to know that Prime Minister Theresa May

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shares this view. Are you surprised, does it matter, that the government,

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given that it said this could be an option, that no deal would be better

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than a bad deal, has no sort of game plan what no deal would mean? I...

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You talked about WTO terms. The big issue is about trade. There is no

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way you will unravel tens of thousands of EU laws before leaving.

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But on trade, if they just need to be made a single offer that means

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they could have continued tariff free trade with goods and service

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and capital, but no people, because of... The WTO does not govern this.

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No, it doesn't, but we could offer them that option. It would be in

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their interest to do it. This decision, they would counsel it, by

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the way, whether they do this, then Angela Merkel would have to talk to

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others to say why they were not accepting a deal. There is something

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that could happen in ten minutes and decided in an afternoon. Argues

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surprise? That is the principle, it does not tell us the consequences.

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-- are you surprised? Is economic modelling so discredited after what

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was said in the Brexit votes that it is not worth the candle? There has

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to be a positive and constructive case. Right now, front and for most,

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we must get the best deal. I think certain elements will happen faster

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than others. I think there will be a multitrack path for the

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negotiations. Will it be multitrack? Michel Barnier will head up the

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negotiations on the EU side. One of the things he is saying is that we

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need to agree on the divorce bill before we talk about the post Brexit

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relationship between the EU and the UK. The British government,

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especially David Davis, he is saying that we need to talk about both at

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the same time. That could be a dealbreaker if the Europeans don't

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agree to that. The whole thing is fraught with difficulties. The

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report by the economic and monetary affairs committee has put in all

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kinds of impediments already. They have a draft which says that the EU

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will have continued control. The men in charge is Mr Verhofstadt. He is

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not in charge. Is he not a senior observer? He will be. On behalf of

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the Parliament. He will have no negotiating role whatsoever. Right?

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Every single one of those committees is doing that. They want the hardest

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possible deal imaginable. There is one fair exposition of where we are

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and what could happen. I don't agree with all of it. But for example, one

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of the things it says as we are under no legal obligation to pay any

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money. The House of Lords said that. The Affairs Committee. Is it a

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dealbreaker to say we need to agree to the deal before we look at what

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happens afterwards? The first thing you say in a negotiation is put the

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hardest deal on the table. The bottom line, if it is a dealbreaker,

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is that the EU need the money from the UK.. Money has become a bigger

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issue right now. The point is that French farmers will not need money.

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The last thing they need is the UK walking were from the table. The

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French farmers will... Let me ask you, do you buy this rather

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sanguinary brooch that we will have, in effect, the shape of the deal by

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the autumn of 2018? In all of the summits I have covered, they always

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go down to the wire. We have already got it in a way. Theresa May will

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not repeal a single EU law and will not amend a single EU law before we

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leave. And she will incorporate the entire body of the EU law. What

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changes? What can be done by 2018? You will end up with a deal... I

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just mean a timetable, what can be done? They cannot negotiate every EU

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law by then. It is impossible. Do you think there should be time for

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the EU Parliament, the British Parliament, the Scottish Parliament,

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to have a say? Another element is the trade deal itself. That could

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take longer. The bottom line is the divorce structure and settlement and

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all of these elements can be mapped out. The easiest thing is what I

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have described. Very well. We shall see. What is the future direction of

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Europe if there is a future? Following the shock of Brexit and

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Donald Trump, will the EU come closer together, or it is the path

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forward more of this negotiation? We have been looking at the five

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options laid out in a commission white paper, as Dan Johnson has been

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finding out. Rome, 60 years ago, when Europe's future was first

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mapped out. Many of those original principles still guided today, but

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there have been bumps in the road. And this week, Europe's leaders

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started discussing a new direction. Europe's future will be one of the

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discussions ahead of the Rome anniversary. Some expect systemic

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changes. We will strengthen the role of nations in relation to the

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communion. But which way to turn? How best to get an agreement? And

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are they serious about change? I think certainly the Brexit decision

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has given a push in order to go in this direction. And finally it has

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also reached the commission and also, you know, some of the other

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political groups in this house, that we do need to reconsider some of the

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things and some of the ways that we have done politics in the past in

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the European Union. So, five options to be considered. Carrying on,

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essentially nothing changes. Cutting back to nothing but the single

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market, already effectively ruled out by the commission. Those who

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want to do more would allow closer integration for some while others

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moved at their own pace. They could all do less more efficiently. Or

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they could agree on doing much more together. The leader of Parliament's

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second weakest group knows what he wants. -- biggest. This is the fifth

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scenario. The possibility to go on together for more European

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integration and political integration. The majority of people

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understand that we need a stronger and more united Europe.

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It just so happens he was previously a forensic pathologist, which begs

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the obvious question. I don't think the Europeans made that point. There

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does seem to be acceptance that Europe has lost its way in recent

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years. At least there is now a pause to reassess and look for new ways

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forward. But to actually get anywhere, everyone has to agree on

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the best route. They are hoping to do that by the end of this year but

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that could be a tough ask. Jean-Claude Juncker has already

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discussed his plan to the German Chancellor and Spain's Prime

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Minister, but some euros diptych to make any of the options. --

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eurosceptics. These options are just one option with different degrees.

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The first one is to keep everything like it is and in fact we are seeing

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that it is not working. The second one is to focus on the market, but

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the commission says we don't want that option. The other is the three

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different degrees of integration, but the point is integration for

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what? And to do what? Is this the way to actually get people to love

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Europe again? I think that there needs to be a European movement. We

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as prose Europeans need to go to the streets again and say, we want this.

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Because in so many countries there has been his narrative of the

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European Union being something of the elites, being something top-down

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and I think we need to say, no, this is not true. The challenge is to get

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a new momentum and get back on track. All aboard! Even if we don't

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yet know exactly where we are heading. All except the UK, of

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course, whatever the new destination is Britain would be along for the

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ride. You would have thought the prospect

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of Britain leaving the EU, which is a huge historic event, whether you

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are for or against it. You would have thought it would concentrate

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minds in EU, to say, where do we go from here without Britain? But it

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seems to me that they are as divided as ever on the way forward, is that

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right? Everyone is pointing a different direction. The plan put

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forward by Jean-Claude Juncker was interesting. It was a magician's

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trick with one card sticking out. Everyone seems to like that, if they

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are in the fast lane. To some extent the Nordics as well. Yes, so you end

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up with a scenario in which those who are fast tracks see why it is

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important. The other thing of course is that the elections, we've just

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had the Dutch election, that has produced a result which I suspect

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will take a long while to form government now in Holland. We've got

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the French ones coming up and the Germans. In France that is run by Mr

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Macron and Germany run by Mr Schultz would have a different direction,

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then affronts run by Marine Le Pen or continues to be running Germany

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by Chancellor Merkel. Is that not right? Exactly. They can't sort this

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out quickly. The most sensible option will be to just concentrate

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on terror free trade and turning... We want free trade. I don't think we

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want the rest of it. They won't do that, will they? They won't.

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Although Jean-Claude Juncker said at the end of his speech that he

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wouldn't say what his preferred option was, I think most of us

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guessed it was option five, deep integration all-round. The elections

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this year are fascinating for a number of reasons, including this.

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Mr Macron is a strong pro European, that his approach. Mr Schultz is a

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strong European as well. But in Italy four out of five of the

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biggest parties are now against the euro. They haven't as yet had an

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election this year. These Europeans are a different ball game. It is

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quite difficult to see the way forward, with all these differences

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of opinion. One thing that seems to bring Europe together right now is

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discussing Brexit. Curiously enough a lot of these populist movements

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might not win elections but they are driving the debate on their side. As

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they did in Holland. So we will see more Eurosceptic elements being

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front and centre in a lot of these campaigns. The complexion of Europe

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will change, even if they don't win... Is it that whatever path they

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take, and it would be a decision because apparently we won't be

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there, at whatever path Europe takes is it in our interest that given

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that it is still our biggest market by a long way is it in our interest

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that it should succeed? I think it is in our interest that it doesn't

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go into economic meltdown, because that would be very bad for

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everybody. But of course there is a tremendous disaster on the horizon,

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which is what happens to the euro. In the report that Jean-Claude

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Juncker did, he said we have to do something about youth unemployment.

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In the second paragraph he said, we need to deepen economic monetary

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union is and I don't understand that one of the biggest causes of the

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economic problems in Europe is the European currency... He's talking

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about making the monetary union work more sensibly, with a proper banking

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union and with of payments from the rich countries. The difficulty with

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that, given the Dutch elections, is that performing the euro will be

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more difficult than ever. Absolutely. And it isn't a common

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problem so there isn't a common solution. There are lots of

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different problems in different directions, causing problems for the

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commissioner and all the rest. We could see more parties like Ukip.

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Divorces can be messy and if you fall out in a big way over the money

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for example it can make it very difficult to make new arrangements.

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How can a messy Brexit break be avoided? We have been to the former

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Czechoslovakia to look at what can be learned from what came to be

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called the Velvet Divorce. Picture this scene. New Year's Eve,

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1992, and this square is packed with people celebrating the end of

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Czechoslovakia and the birth of an independent Slovak Republic in a

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process known as the Mr Schulz -- 'velvet divorce', so-called because

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not a single shot was fired. At the castle evidence of where it all

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started. Signs from the protest that overthrew communism in 1989.

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Freedom. But the public word as involved in what happens next. The

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main contender here is the leader Vladimir... The Slovak nationalists

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was the victor in elections in 1992, and over an intense few weeks he

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negotiated a split with his counterpart in the richer Czech part

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of the country. There was no referendum and the divorce followed

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a simple formula. There are 10 million Czech, 5 million Slovaks,

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the property was divided two to one. The military was divided in the

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similar way. Diplomatic services in our embassies were divided very

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peacefully and we didn't have any border disputes. Because we always

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had a border between the Czech and Slovak republics, so there were no

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major fights. Since then, slow Bhatia has joined the EU and

:22:27.:22:33.

flourished, or has it? -- Slovakia. This woman is a member of the former

:22:34.:22:37.

Prime Minister's club with David Cameron and she says the split was

:22:38.:22:40.

not democratic, left the country briefly bankrupt and was harder than

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people remember. Some of the things were really sort of ten years later,

:22:45.:22:51.

not immediately, not at all. All new state institutions. The president,

:22:52.:22:58.

Parliament, government, justice, constitutional law. All institutions

:22:59.:23:06.

of controlling mechanisms. Everything! For the next generation

:23:07.:23:13.

of politicians, like the economy minister, it is all ancient history.

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Or geography. I think it is the best partnership. Still good friends?

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Still good friends. I'm not the only visitor from the UK. David Davis was

:23:32.:23:35.

in town recently as well, could he have spied any lessons for the UK's

:23:36.:23:39.

upcoming divorce? Openly, no lessons. I don't think it will be

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over in one or two years. The key is to maintain goodwill and maintain

:23:46.:23:52.

good relationships, where you are not playing games and tricks. It is

:23:53.:23:57.

a triumph of nationalism and not much else. The two republics go

:23:58.:24:01.

their separate ways. Watching another famous correspondent who

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stood on the spot, the lesson I've learned is that separating seems

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massive at the time but living apart last for much longer.

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During the Scottish referendum I did a documentary about raking up and be

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looked at the velvet divorce. Although they are two pretty small

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countries, and you would think it would be easy, it turned out there

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were many treaties that had to be done. Raking up is hard to do. Yes,

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but the lesson is, if you make the decision to go and saw the details

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out afterwards... That's not really the government's position. The

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British government's position... It might not make sense. Before we go,

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we want to see what it means. Other things actually involve us building

:24:53.:24:55.

something fresh. There are couple of elements to this. I believe we can

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do that if we both enter the discussions in a right frame of

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mind. Can you look to negotiations in which there is no victor? Can

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that be done? We can make them an offer they can't refuse and then we

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all benefit and that seems to be the biggest issue. It would be immensely

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difficult. Immigration is the next biggest problem. It can be done, we

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have to keep focused on the outcome and that's a good deal for both

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sides and that's what people want. Whatever the politicians want

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remains to seen. We shall see. It will be an interesting time. Thank

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you both. That's it from Politics Europe. I hope you can join me for

:25:43.:25:44.

the next

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