13/11/2013 BBC News at One

Good news on the UK economy. Unemployment falls again, and the

Bank of England predict that things will get better faster than they

thought. In his quarterly report, the Bank's

Governor, Mark Carney, left question marks about interest rate rises, but

says there is no doubting the pace of the economic recovery. For the

first time in a long time, you don't have to be an optimist to see that

the glass is half all. The recovery has finally taken hold.

We will have reaction to the governor's optimism and what it

could mean for you. The other headlines this lunchtime: A plea for

water, food and medicines, as survivors of the Philippines

hurricane grow increasingly desperate.

With aid beginning to arrive, ?13 million has been raised in the first

24 hours of the DEC appeal. A race against time - doctors warn

that without urgent medical supplies, many more could die.

Plans for a two-tier accident and emergency system, put forward in

response to the growing pressures on casualty departments in England.

Charging ahead - a spending watchdog warns that households are facing

another 17 years of above inflation pieces in energy and water bills.

Back from a six-month tour of duty in Afghanistan, Captain Heather

Stanning prepares for the next challenge, going for Olympic rowing

gold in Rio. Later on BBC London, another cyclist

dies at a roundabout at the fourth to lose their life in a few days.

And police defend the rise of Taser incidents. They have doubled their

use in the capital in the last year. Good afternoon and welcome to the

BBC News at ten one. There was good news on the UK

economy today. The Governor of the Bank of England says the UK recovery

has "taken hold". His comments came as the bank upgraded its growth

forecast for the economy this year and next. That could herald a sooner

than expected rise in interest rates. And unemployment has fallen

again. In the three months to September, the number was down

48,000 to just under 2.5 million. The Office for National Statistics

said the number of people in work reached almost 30 million, the

highest figure since records began. A big power in steering the

economy, the Bank of England has changed its view about how fast it

is recovering. Stronger optimism is backed up by jobs increasing and

unemployment falling. Amazon in Swansea is one employer which has

been taking people on at a faster rate than last year, starting in

temporary jobs, some of them then moving up to full time. I came

straight from university, so I wanted to use my degree. I came in

here, not thinking I could use it, but thankfully, Amazon have grown

around me and I have enabled to use my experiences inside. Unemployment

has dropped to 7.6% of the workforce, down from 7.7. Youth

unemployment is down nine hours, long-term unemployment down 19,000.

The Bank of England's keep power is to change interest rates to spur or

hold back the economy. That now depends on the unemployment figures.

The governor, Mark Carney, framed a new policy in the summer called

forward guidance, one thing the world's financial markets when UK

interest rates would be raised from their rock bottom rate of 0.5%. He

said it would happen when the percentage of the workforce who were

unemployed fell to seven, and the forward guidance was that the

threshold would be reached in 2016. Now it looks like we will get their

year earlier. Jobs are being created at a rate of 60,000 per month. The

economy is growing at its fastest pace in six years. For the first

time in a long time, you don't have to be an optimist to see the glass

is half full. The recovery has finally taken hold. On the ground

and out what of the whole of the UK economy, the forecast for this year

is raised to 1.6% from 1.4. Next year is predicted to be 2.8%, an

even bigger upgrade. The economy is moving faster, and without the sort

of price rises that many fear, there is still a long way to go to make up

for what we lost in the recession, with the Bank of England saying it

is a lot better than in the summer. There are 100 thousand more people

in work than expected, so a return to higher interest rates is a relief

for savers, but a worry for homeowners with mortgages could

happen sooner. Our chief economics correspondent is

here. Listening to the governor and the change of tone, Houston is the

economy? I was struck by his tone. The Bank of England has not all

castes like this for a while . For the government to talk about the

glass being half full is quite something. Mark Carney criticised

the Mervyn King, who did not have many opportunities to say that. He

is saying it had taken hold, a crucial statement to make, that it

is not a flash in the pan. As we heard, unemployment is falling, the

biggest drop in the numbers claiming jobseeker's allowance since 2008.

But the governor did add that to be sure of a sustained recovery, you

need more business investment. You need real wages to pick up, in other

words, to be above the rate of inflation. So it could take time for

things to be absolutely certain, but he is up beat. So that is good news.

But perversely, many will be concerned that that may herald a

sooner than expected rise in interest rates. And the picture is

even more confusing than it was. Back in August, they set out forward

guidance that they would not even consider raising interest rates

until unemployment got to 7% of the workforce, which looked unlikely

before 2016. So it looks like three years of record low interest rates.

Under their projections now, at 7% could even be reached by the end of

next year. So they may consider raising interest rates possibly as

soon as in a year's time. But Mark Carney and his colleagues may not

raise interest rates than. There could be other factors, like low

inflation. So there is no increased certainty about interest rates, and

lots of mortgage payers and savers will still be wondering where it

leaves them. Survivors of Typhoon Haiyan in the

Philippines are growing increasingly desperate for food, water and

medical supplies, as aid agencies struggle to get vital supplies to

those who need it. Eight people were crushed to death after acute crowd

stormed a rice warehouse on Leyte island. Here, the Disasters

Emergency Committee has announced that more than ?13 million has been

donated in the first 24 hours of its appeal. Thousands have died in the

disaster. The Philippines government estimates around 2000, but the death

toll could be much higher. More than nine merely unpeople -- 9 million

people are in urgent need of aid. We will have reports from our

correspondents on the ground in Tacloban, one of the worst hit

areas, looking at whether any aid is managing to get through and how the

hospitals are trying to cope. First, this report on how thousands of able

spend yet another night in temporary shelter.

There is not much left with a roof in Tacloban. The Astrodome arena was

one of the few buildings big enough to withstand Typhoon Haiyan. It is

now a shelter for hundreds of families who have lost everything.

Thousands of people are camped here in filthy conditions. Seven families

are living in this 110. Finally, there is a team of doctors, one of

the first signs of help beginning to arrive. A stair landing is now home

to this family. Lee managed to get his wife Jessica and his seven

children here in hours before the typhoon hit. They have one-month-old

twin boys. Lee tells me they have enough baby formula to last just

four more days. He says only God is giving him the strength to carry on

and that he is lucky his family is still alive. Thousands of people

were seeking shelter here at the Astrodome when the typhoon struck.

This was one of the main evacuation centres, but such was the size of

the storm surge coming in from the ocean that the water came right up

to this balcony. People can see aid is now being flown in in greater

amounts. But little has arrived here yet. Jose is a schoolteacher. Like

many, he feels abandoned. People of the world, come to my city. We need

you. Please, come to my city. We need you. We need help. But until it

comes, people likely are having to comfort their families as best they

can. Many communities have no means of

making contact with the rest of the country, making it difficult to

build a clear picture of exactly where the need is greatest. The

worst hit areas are also impossible to reach by road, so delivering aid

by air has become essential. This is what the people of Tacloban

have been waiting for. Finally, we are starting to see assignment of

aid. These are high-energy biscuits brought by the world food programme.

They have been delivered to the airport, but until now, there has

not been the logistics, security or organisation to deliver them to the

200,000 people of the city. Finally, we are seeing food but from this

airport in these military trucks and head out towards the city. Behind

here, you can see these US Osprey heavy-lift helicopter aircraft,

ideal for taking aid from here to outline the village is which have

been completely wiped up and have up to now received no assistance at

all. All these people are trying to leave Tacloban. The lack of food,

water my shelter and security is driving more and more to find any

way they can out of the city. Flights are few and far between.

They have the waiting many hours. And remember, a lot of these people

have families and young children with them and have had to walk to

get here. There is no fuel, no transport. They are exhausted.

As desperation grows over a lack of food and water, doctors are also

facing a shortage of medical supplies. Casualties are continuing

to flock to the main hospital in Tacloban, where doctors say they are

short of essentials. This is the main hospital in the

middle of Tacloban. It is near the sea front. It was completely flooded

during the storm surge. You can still see the mud on the ground, but

they are getting it back up and running. This is where the

casualties come when they are first admitted. You can see this young

girl was brought in half an hour ago. She has a serious cut on her

head. You can see that it is operating. It is typical of the

laceration that has been left for a few days and starting to get septic.

Behind us is where they bring the babies in. This little girl has a

fever and diarrhoea. Again, typical of the symptoms of what happens when

babies drink dirty water in an un-sanitary place. She has a high

fever and is on a drip. They literally don't have enough water to

give her to drink. There is medicine here, but it is very basic and the

doctors we have been talking to say they need everything.

Tim Willcox is in Cebu. Time is crucial? It is. I am at eight is to

be sure centre here in downtown Cebu, run by the charity world

vision. Volunteers have been coming from local depots with rice, food,

water, cooking oil and other essentials. These will then be taken

by boat to the worst affected areas, or flown in. They are not taking the

risk of road convoys with lorries because of the security situation.

Let's speak to lose from world vision. How dangerous is it for your

teams on the ground? In Tacloban, it is dangerous. We had a team go in

and it took them two days to get there on a trip by road which would

normally take two hours. But are they being attacked or threatened by

people who are so best that they are prepared to descend on aid convoys

and take what they need? This team wasn't, but reports of that

happening have increased. Why has it taken so long to get aid in? The

typhoon was on Friday. People are still sleeping in the open and do

not have enough water or food now. There are a few reasons. The

Philippines was hit by a super-tight which knocked out the infrastructure

and telecoms. It is an Archipelago, so access is difficult. But

shouldn't law and order have been imposed earlier? It is easier to say

that with hindsight. This brought people behave in desperate ways. It

is easy to underestimate the desperation people quickly feel when

they don't have food or water. We have been reporting on what has been

happening ten miles away from Tacloban, where eight people were

crushed in that desk at rush for food in a rice warehouse. People are

really now wanting food and aid as quickly as possible. There is

comprehensive, coverage on the BBC website. You will find detailed maps

showing the extent of the damage and video reports filed by our

correspondence on the ground. A serious case review into the death

of Hamzah Khan - the four-year-old boy who was starved to death by his

mother -- says he was let down by the systems supposed to protect him.

It also found that Hamzah's death could not have been predicted. His

body was found in his cot in 2011, nearly two years after he died. The

Department for Education said the report left too many questions

unanswered. Ed Thomas has the details. Four-year-old Hamzah Khan

was starved to death by his mother, an alcoholic known to police, social

workers and health visitors. She hid her abuse from all those agencies

while she slowly killed her child. Today, eight senior executives said

his death was not preventable and refused to say sorry. This is not a

whitewash. I am in independent person and my home -- whole career

is based on that. The children's minister said he was not satisfied

with the serious case review and said... The father of Hamzah Khan

was criticised in the report. He was separated from his wife at the time

of the death. We live in a society where our children are registered

with doctors and schools. They are failed. They are failed big-time.

Nobody chased anything up. Amanda Hutton was last month after a court

heard she left Hamzah Khan in a travel cot for many months, when she

drank whiskey. Pictures were shown of her home and one senior detective

said he had never seen anything like it. Hamzah Khan would be left in a

dark room as punishment. Neighbours could hear children crying and

shouting next door. Nobody realised that the four-year-old was starving

to death. The serious case review blamed systems, and not people, for

Amanda's hidden neglect. It said that lessons had been learned. Too

late for Hamzah Khan. The child that pleaded for help which never came.

The top story this lunchtime... Good news on the UK economy. Unemployment

is falling and the Bank of England addict things will get better faster

than they thought. Coming up, we will be here at a barracks where an

army captain receives a middle of a different kind. On BBC London... A

scheme which tries to keep girls out of trouble in Tottenham. South

London singer Gabrielle tells us why she is ready to rise again.

We have been reporting concerns about the growing pressure on

accident and emergency. A major review on emergency care has called

for a two tier system of departments. Under the changes,

expertise dealing with heart attacks would be concentrated in up to 70

hospitals and that seems crucial because 40% of people who attend

accident and emergency do not need treating there. The A department

at Bradford Royal infirmary is one of the busiest, seeing more and more

patients. It has been acknowledged that they are under stress. Medical

science has advanced, the demographics have changed. The

review of emergency care has said many people could be treated closer

to home. Last year there were 1 million avoidable emergency

admissions. It is thought 50% of 999 calls could be managed at the scene,

and 40% of A patients are discharged, requiring no treatment.

Review requires power medics -- paramedics to take more care at

scene. At present, patients face a confusing array of out of hours and

emergency services. The frail and elderly make up a significant number

of patients being admitted at accident and emergency departments.

In Bradford, they are trying new ways to deal with older patients.

The key issue to combat this is to rapidly diagnose what the problem is

and ensuring that those who need to stay doomsday and those who do not

are supported at home. This review warns there is no simple solution to

the crisis but the kind of ideas they are trying in Bradford to

relieve pressure on hard-pressed emergency departments and the good

for patients as well. This is the kind of scheme the review once more.

A team in Bradford comes to see this 88-year-old and his wife in their

home. It keeps him out of hospital. They are wonderful. They are. 24

hour care. Specialist emergency care centres would deal with serious

problems and A department 's words have more basic services. This

review is clear and the current system is not sustainable.

There is bad news for people who think they are paying too much for

their energy. The public spending watchdog says we could face 17 more

years of above inflation increases in energy and water bills.

A powerful political row has ignited over the price of energy. For the

government, gas and electricity companies, it is said, cannot treat

customers as cash cows. Ed Miliband is promising a 21 month price

freeze. A shock to the system, never mind 20 months, a report from the

government's spending watchdog says prices could rise for 20 years. The

Department for energy and climate change is predicting that energy

bills will rise by 18% by 2030. One of the recommendations is that the

government is as transparent as it can be about the likely impact on

bills. A report for the National Audit Office says... If all of that

is putting your gas at peak, big energy companies said today that

tariffs could rise by 50% by the end of the decade, and they say it is

high time that politicians at Westminster starts discussing how we

can have secure energy supplies at an affordable cost. If we are going

to make large-scale investment, whether in renewable or an renewable

energy, nuclear or gas, large-scale investment is required. That is

going to have an effect on the bills. The reason why prices are

going up right now is because the energy companies are earning large

profits, paying big dividends, paying big salaries to their chief

executives, rather than focusing on consumers. It is clear. No matter

who is in power, the pressure on energy prices will remain high. The

political decision will be how the cost can be made more affordable for

the less well off. Olympic gold medallist Heather Stanning has

returned from a six month tour of duty in Afghanistan - and is already

focused on the 2016 Games. Captain Stanning maintained her punishing

exercise regime during the time she spent in Helmand Province - she's

now preparing for the Team GB rowing trials later this month as she aims

to compete in Rio. Our defence correspondent Caroline Wyatt is at

Baker Barracks on Thorney Island in Hampshire. Heather Stanning was one

of 150 troops at this parade ground here, receiving their Afghanistan

medals, their post-operational tour medals. Their families were watching

proudly, and for Heather Stanning and her family this will have

brought back memories of that emotional moment at the summer 2012

Games. The Olympic champion, great wooden! The moment is that Heather

Stanning and her rowing partner powered to victory. It was their

first gold of the Olympic Games. The result of years of hard work and

training. Today, the moment that Captain Heather Stanning and her

colleagues were awarded their medals for a different type of service to

the country. Six months in Helmand province on operational tour. We

filmed with Heather in Afghanistan at Camp Bastion, where the Olympian

was just another officer. Even there, she managed to squeeze in

several hours of training every day, fitted around her work and the

austere surroundings of the British camp. You even knew they were

sharing the place with a 2012 sporting champion. -- few people. I

do not think people realise who she is. To most people, she is a normal

army officer in Afghanistan. For Heather Stanning and her team, it

was a gruelling six-month, working in a Portakabin, hardly the way most

Olympians will have spent a year. It is the path she chose. Lots of

people ask me what I learned at Sandhurst. The stuff I learned as a

sports person has deftly helped me. Her task was to run one of the

team's surveillance plants which keep British troops safe in Helmand

province. A demanding task and a lapse in concentration can mean the

difference between life and death. A time of enormous pride for the

families and friends here during that medals Parade. Enormous relief

that they are back safely from province, and for Heather Stanning,

the start of another training regime and the hope that she will add to

her medals collection. More now on the devastating typhoon that's hit

the Philippines. A special conference is being held in London

to try to ensure that humanitarian aid gets through to those who need

it. The DEC appeal - launched last night - says that more than

?13-million has been donated so far. More than 600,000 people have been

displaced and many of their relatives in this country have had

no contact with them since the typhoon struck. Sophie Hutchinson

reports. Lily Matthews has been desperate for

news of her family back in the Philippines. Today, for the first

time since the typhoon, she spoke to a cousin. My brother is missing. My

nephew and his family have survived but they are hungry right now. They

are asking for food, shelter and water. At Heathrow Airport this

morning, the first registered medical team prepared to set for the

Philippines. It was made up 12 volunteer doctors and nurses, all

expert at operating in emergency situations. With the terrible

destruction and the affect on the health service, there will be many

people who are injured, and you have wounds which have not been treated.

Millions of lives wrecked within a matter of hours. The challenge of

bringing help to these people is colossal. The disasters and

emergencies committee has impaired the typhoon to the tsunami in 2004.

Their appeal, launched yesterday, has already raised ?13 million. The

level of need in the Philippines is immense. We need resources so we can

respond to the food, water and shelter needs on the ground. In

addition, the UK Government has pledged up to ?15 million but that

is a long way off from the estimated total needed according to the UN to

help rebuild these people's lives. If you want to donate money to the

disaster emergency committee, you can

If you want to donate money to the disaster call them...

Now I look at the weather. Here is Elizabeth. . We have some fine

weather outdoors and some sunshine for many of us. It is mainly across

southern and eastern parts of the UK. For others, it is a different

story. There is a band of clouds moving across northern and western

parts of the UK, and it is producing heavy rain and the wind is

increasing, reaching gale force across northern Scotland. As we go

through this evening, the band of rain will break up but there will be

some heavy, prolonged showers across north-western parts, driven by the

strong north westerly wind. It will not be as cold as last night with

temperatures staying up at five, six or seven degrees. Let's take a look

at tomorrow morning in more detail. The first thing you might notice is

it will feel chilly, despite the lack of frost. There will be some

bright weather, possibly in southwestern England. There will

still be some cloud in the South East for a time, and there will be

some showers blowing down from Manchester and the Midlands. The

showers across north-west Scotland will start to fade away and any

wintry showers will disappear. That is the set-up for the morning,

strong north-westerly winds throughout the day so it will feel

chilly. Showers in the north and west but many eastern parts will

have a fine day with good spells of sunshine. Temperatures, on the face

of it, will be similar to today, around nine or 10 degrees. Taking

into account the strength of the wind, it will feel chilly. For

Friday, we are looking at the change in the weather. An area of high

pressure coming in starting to settle things down. Winds will be

lighter, but still chilly across the South East. It should be a fine day

with the best of sunshine towards the eastern areas. More persistent

rain towards the far north-west. The weekend is mixed. Rain at times,

mainly in the north. You may want to spend some time over the weekend

preparing yourself for next week. We are expecting it to be much colder

and we are talking about frost, ice and maybe some snow. Thank you. That

is all