07/02/2017 Weather for the Week Ahead

Well, the weather was miserable on Monday, wasn't it?

Rain and gales in the north-west of the country,

and I think by now everybody's had at least a bit of rain.

If you were watching yesterday,

we've been talking about a change in the weather pattern,

colder weather arriving, and that still remains the case.

From round about Wednesday onwards,

that's when things will start to get colder.

But in the short term, we still have a weather front crossing the UK.

It'll be sort of reaching eastern areas of the country during

the course of Tuesday.

But it's grinding to a halt,

so after travelling thousands of miles across the Atlantic,

it's kind of slowing down into gear three, gear two, gear one,

and now it's going to park itself across the east of the country.

So through the early hours of Tuesday,

it just shifts a little bit towards the east,

leaves a bit of iciness around after that snowy night in the

Pennines and Grampian across Scotland.

And then we're left over with a bit of a mixed bag behind it.

There will be some sunshine around but also some showers.

For Wales, Cornwall, much of the West Country here, sunshine and

occasional showers, hail and thunder possible, too.

So don't be surprised if you need your brolly in Cardiff or

in Bristol or Plymouth, indeed.

And then through the course of Tuesday evening,

that weather front is still there.

I said it's not moving, anyway,

it's parking itself along that North Sea coast,

and one of the reasons - and this is what we were talking about

yesterday - why it can't shift further eastwards is because

of the high pressure and the winds flowing around that high pressure.

So the winds are basically putting a block on it,

and any weather fronts that do tend to swing our way are just

shooting northwards into Iceland.

So on Wednesday, whatever's left over of that weather front,

just a bit of cloud, maybe a few dribs and drabs of light rain

but nothing more than that,

but it's starting to feel cold now on that eastern coast.

Temperatures three degrees in Norwich,

not quite so cold there in the west, around seven to nine degrees.

And yesterday I was talking about that blocking high,

that block that stops the weather fronts from coming through.

Another way of looking at it is by looking at the jet stream.

And this is quite interesting. Look what happens.

So, the jet stream races across the Atlantic, reaches this block,

thinks, "Uh-oh, I can't go through, I can only go northwards,"

so it is almost like a stone.

And once it sits there, it's not going anywhere,

at least not for a while.

So Thursday, the weather front may just about hang around for a while.

That just means a little bit of cloud, nothing more than that.

But those easterly winds well and truly win,

so a frosty morning, I think, across the UK,

and then highs of only two or three degrees and pretty cloudy.

Now I'm going to run the forecast from Friday through the weekend.

A selection of temperatures here.

Now, watch what happens across the North Sea.

Now, this is cloud and potentially some snow mixing in,

and this is a pattern.

We're not necessarily taking

these blobs of light rain or snow literally.

It could be to the north, to the south, to the east.

It's just the overall envelope of this weather pattern.

So, yes, there is a potential for some snow.

It's certainly going to be cold enough for some snow.

How much we're going to get, whether it's just a dusting,

a few flakes in the air or maybe a little bit more across the

hills, too early, very difficult to forecast that at this stage.

And into next week and probably most of next week,

that high pressure still there - remember that block and those

easterly winds winning.

So, here's the summary.

Cold, easterly winds - we've said that quite a few times -

frosty mornings and that chance of a few snow flurries.

But whether we are going to be

building those snowmen or not, too early to say.