12/02/2017 Weather for the Week Ahead


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12/02/2017

Detailed weather forecast.


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Hello. Well, belatedly perhaps the winter has been showing its teeth

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over the last few days, hasn't it?

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Cold east wind and some snow for some of us.

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The cold spell is not going to last all that long.

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In fact, the blues get swept away fairly promptly and next week

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we get much warmer air indicated by the yellows here,

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a real taste of spring for some of us in actual fact.

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Let me show you in a different way, through this weekend

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we're struggling to get much higher than what,

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3 or 4 degrees,

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but temperatures do rise steadily and quite widely will be

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into double figures come the middle of the week and with some sunshine,

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you'll notice the difference,

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that's for sure.

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It doesn't feel much like spring

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out the at the moment, though does it,

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with that cold easterly wind still?

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Lots of cloud, rain, sleet, snow,

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most of the stuff over this high ground, Wales,

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the Peak District and the Pennines

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where some high level routes

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could be quite badly affected.

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Mostly rain at lower levels,

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not much sunshine, though,

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grey and cold, 3 and 4 degrees

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is the best I can offer you

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in many places, not helped by the strength

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of the wind which will actually strengthen

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further through Sunday night

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and on into Monday as indicated

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by the tightening of the isobars.

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Monday will be a very windy day indeed,

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particularly out west,

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where we're expecting gales

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around exposed coasts and headlands.

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But we are going to see

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increasing amounts of sunshine

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spreading up from the south.

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A real change in the weather

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for many of us and with higher

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temperatures as well,

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it's going to feel much more pleasant

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across the southern half of the UK,

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still pretty raw further north

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with a lots of cloud still

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and that gusty wind across

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eastern Scotland and north-east England.

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Still pretty windy on Tuesday,

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that south-easterly coming in off the continent,

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but we've got a front trying to push in off the Atlantic

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and that will make some headway

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into the far south-west of England,

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maybe the far south-west of Wales,

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so some patchy rain here eventually.

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Most other places will be dry,

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again, hopefully,

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some sunshine will help the feel of things,

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but still that chilly wind

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across the more northern and eastern areas.

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Now, by Wednesday, that front

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will have staggered some way inland,

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its exact position a little bit uncertain,

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so don't take the positioning

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of the rain too literally.

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There will be some patchy rain around.

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The winds won't be as strong

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and they're starting to come up

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from the south or even the south-west again,

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a milder direction, in fact,

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by Wednesday, many of us

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will be in double figures.

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By Thursday, it looks as if

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most of the action, most of any wind

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and rain will be across

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the far north of Scotland.

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For the rest of us, much lighter winds

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and again it'll feel pretty pleasant

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with temperatures widely up

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into double figures once more.

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Here's the big picture then,

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with that front stranded across the north,

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it's tied in with an area

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of low pressure out in the Atlantic

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which is trying to come in

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on a somewhat re-invigorated jet stream.

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The jet stream has been pretty limp through this winter.

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It's been deflected away from our shores which

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has meant that much of the winter has been on the dry side.

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But the jet, for a time at least, later on in the week,

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will be reinvigorated as it oscillates its way towards us.

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How long will that last?

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How long will the more unsettled spell continued?

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Well, some clues perhaps lie down in the tropics.

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There's known to be a link between pulses of energy in the atmosphere,

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which move the way west to east across the tropics

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and the behaviour of our jet stream closer to home and it does look

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as if one such pulse of energy across the tropics

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is actually likely to stop the jet stream from livening up again.

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It looks as if that jet could well be blocked once more,

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so any wetter spells could be quite brief

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and a predominantly dry theme

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continues into the latter part of this month.

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I'll give you more details

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on that tomorrow.

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