14/02/2017 Weather for the Week Ahead


14/02/2017

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Hi. Winter is not over yet, let's not kid ourselves,

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but over the next few days, it is a mild prospect.

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In fact, on Monday,

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it almost felt like spring across some parts of the UK.

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With some very welcome sunshine.

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No more so than across parts of the West Country.

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A beautiful shot taken from just outside Exeter, headquarters

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of the Met Office, of course, top of the shot with 14 Celsius.

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It was a lovely day across other parts of the UK except across

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the far north-east of England and the eastern half of Scotland.

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Shrouded in cloud, it was cold in Aberdeenshire.

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Here in Finzean,

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we didn't get much above 4 Celsius with still some snow on the ground.

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But even here over the next few days, it will be turning mild.

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There will be some sunshine.

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The price we pay is a little bit of rain at times.

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In fact, we are going to see some rain pushing in initially to

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south-western parts of the UK

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as fronts start to come in off the Atlantic.

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The high pressure still holding sway further north and east.

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So here the best of the dry weather,

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here the dampness across the south-west.

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Not much rain, hit and miss,

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it will be spreading its way into other parts of the West Country,

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maybe Wales, some other southern counties, Northern Ireland.

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But behind that,

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it will probably brighten up again across the far south-west.

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A relatively mild day here,

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still quite chilly in the breeze further north and east despite some

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brightness and that cloud hanging on across the east of Scotland.

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So this front idles its way across the country with

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a thicker band of cloud.

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Another more active front with a bit more oomph to it arrives on

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Wednesday across south-western areas with some sharper bursts of rain.

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Don't take the position of the blobs of blue too literally,

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but it gives the idea that there will be some pulses of rain

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pushing up from the south-west.

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Some drier spells,

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temperatures still heading in the right direction.

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Turning milder nationwide.

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So that set of fronts clears its way north-eastwards.

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It hangs around across some northern parts of the UK where there

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will still be some showers around, I think, on Thursday.

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But the trend will be, as we end the week, for things to dry out again.

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There'll be a fair bit of cloud,

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but I think there will be some sunshine around as well.

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It will feel quite nice.

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Mind you, with light winds overnight, that does give

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the possibility of some frost and perhaps some fog patches

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which could linger well on into the day in some places.

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Most likely across the southern half of the UK on Saturday.

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Further north, we've got another change,

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another set of fronts pushing in, this time from the north-west,

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with some rain turning up across western Scotland during

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the course of Saturday.

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That's a sign of things to come because,

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as I mentioned yesterday, the jet stream's going to start to liven up

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and deliver weather systems, outbreaks of rain,

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along its tracks, in from the Atlantic and down across the UK.

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It's going to be a mild wind direction,

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certainly milder than recently.

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The wettest weather across north-western areas,

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the driest and brightest further south-east.

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As I also mentioned yesterday, we are keeping our eye on developments

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down in the Tropics, where we tend to get pulses of energy

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moving their way west to east around the globe.

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These pulses of energy tend to enhance the rainfall in the Tropics,

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but it also has the effect of influencing

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our jet stream closer to home.

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It could well be that as we end the month, the effect on the jet stream

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could well be to block it again and deflect it away from the UK.

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If that happens, things will turn drier and probably

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a bit chillier again as we end the month.

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I know it's a long way off, but a dry signal perhaps not ideal,

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because winter rain is very useful when it comes to the summer.

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I'll update you again tomorrow.

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