15/02/2017 Weather for the Week Ahead


15/02/2017

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What's your impression of the winter so far?

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Well, nothing too extreme - we've had some frost,

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a bit of snow, but actually not much in the way of rainfall.

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Following on from a dry autumn, winter so far has been pretty dry.

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The map is coloured brown,

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indicating below average rainfall through December and January,

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and February hasn't seen much in the way of rainfall either.

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And it's something the Environment Agency and the Met Office

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are keeping a close eye on, because winter rainfall is very important

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when it comes to replenishing water supplies in time for the summer.

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So it's just one to watch.

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It's been so dry because we've had blocking areas of high pressure

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for much of the winter.

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Over the next few days, though, we're going to see more of

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an Atlantic influence with low pressure systems

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coming in from the west.

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So there will be some rain through the next week or so,

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but no huge amounts at this stage anticipated.

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One such weather system pushing into south-western parts of England

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and Wales through the morning, some wet weather locally.

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It'll stagger its way northwards and eastwards.

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Fairly patchy in nature but the odd heavy burst around too.

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On either side of that there will be some dry weather.

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In actual fact,

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it'll brighten up quite nicely through the afternoon across

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some south-western parts of England, south-west Wales,

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as this weather system pushes up through parts of southern England,

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the Midlands, maybe the odd thundery bursts

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and up into parts of northern England as well.

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Fair bit of cloud in association with that, of course,

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but it will be mild -

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temperatures up into double figures in a good few places.

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Showery rain continuing to move its way northwards out of

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Northern Ireland, perhaps into south-west Scotland.

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Some of the best of the sunshine on offer, actually,

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on Wednesday will be across the far north.

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Milder than it has been.

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Now, this little weather system clears out of the way but as

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a low pressure system trundles across the far north,

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this is where most of the action will be weather-wise on Thursday.

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Some quite blustery winds circulating around that low

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and there will be some showers for Scotland, Northern Ireland,

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parts of northern England too. But a lot of dry weather further south.

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Quite a quiet day across the south of the UK with light winds,

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and after a foggy start in one or two places

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it should be reasonably bright.

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Now, as we head into the night for Friday

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a little ridge of high pressure topples across.

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Reaches of high pressure bring dry weather.

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The catch is, could well be a foggy start to the day on Friday

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and that fog could linger into the day in some places before

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eventually it brightens up with some sunshine.

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Some of the best of the sunshine actually on Friday will be

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across the eastern half of the UK.

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Out west, the next weather system getting lined up,

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but I think it will take all day for it to arrive across the far west,

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with increasing wind and some rain turning up.

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Again, in the sunshine further east, feeling pretty good.

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Now, that weather system staggers across the country,

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but a pretty weak feature, as you can see - just patchy rain around.

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Again, no great amounts, probably staying dry across the east

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and brightening up later on out west.

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Then on Sunday the next weather system arrives off the Atlantic,

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so some wet weather turning up across Northern Ireland and

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Scotland through the day on a freshening breeze,

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whereas further south and east it should be drier and brighter.

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And again, double-figure temperatures.

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Now, into next week the jet stream livens up a bit,

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so we are going to see some more active frontal systems coming

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in off the Atlantic, carried along by that strengthening jet stream.

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Toppling down across the country,

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these weather systems will bring some rain,

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particularly to the more northern and western parts of the UK,

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whereas further south and east we won't see much in the way of rain.

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So that's the story through next week. Always driest across the east.

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There will be some wet weather further west.

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Milder than recently - just briefly we'll see some chillier spells

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but nothing too extreme.

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We'll update you again tomorrow.

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