28/02/2017 Weather for the Week Ahead


28/02/2017

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Hi there. The weather is going through

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a transition at the moment,

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as we go from winter into spring.

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The sun is getting ever-stronger

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but the air is still quite cold,

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and that can manifest itself

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in some interesting

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and apparently confusing contradictions.

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On Monday, we seen

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a huge contrast in the weather.

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Wet for some, sunny for others,

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and for a few of us,

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a reminder that winter

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ain't finished yet.

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There was some snowfall around,

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this the scene during

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Monday evening across Midlothian.

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And the weather will continue

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to chop and change on a daily basis

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through the rest of this week,

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as the seasons battle it out.

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There will be rain, there'll be shine,

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and there will be a continued chance

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of some snow, especially across northern areas.

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We've got low-pressure in control

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and various frontal bands around

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that area of low pressure bringing rain,

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and with the air still quite chilly,

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a continued chance of

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some of that rain turning to snow.

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This is the theme on Tuesday,

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areas of rain and hill snow

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pushing in from the north-west

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and tracking their way west-to-east

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across England and Wales.

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Some sunshine ahead and behind that,

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some parts of northern England

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having a drab and cold afternoon.

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Some of the best of the sunshine

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actually across parts of

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Scotland and Northern Ireland.

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Nowhere will it be warm,

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temperatures in single figures.

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So that little chap clears away eastwards

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and, as we head into the night and skies clear,

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we're expecting a frost around,

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further wintry showers

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across the north of Scotland.

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As we get into Wednesday,

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the next frontal system

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comes in from the west, and that's going to spread

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some rain into southern counties.

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Question mark as to

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how far north that rain extends,

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but central areas could eventually turn pretty damp.

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Best of the brightness further north,

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but another chilly day.

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Into Thursday and the uncertainties continue,

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but it looks like we will have

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a band of rain through central areas,

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some hill snow as well to the south,

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milder to the north, distinctly chilly.

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Let's go over to the States. Why?

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Because what's happening in the States could impact

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our weather later in the week.

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Some really violent storms at the moment,

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this was the scene on Monday

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across the Deep South.

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Some thunderstorms, some tornadoes as well.

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The threat is there again

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on Tuesday through the Midwest,

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injecting a lot of energy

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into the atmosphere.

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Actually, these really big storms

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could well disrupt the jet stream,

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which then transports itself

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across the Atlantic and could

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well develop a kink like this

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as we head towards the end of the week,

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and that will impact on how quickly

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and how far north weather systems

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travel later on this week.

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So, take this chart with a little bit of

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a pinch of salt in terms of the detail.

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It does look as if we're going to see

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an area of low pressure and rain somewhere

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across the country, but how far north,

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big question mark as

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it runs into the cold air.

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Again, a continued chance of some snow.

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We've got this sort of battle going on

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between cold air to the north and milder air

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to the south.

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And along that battleground,

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we have got the jet stream.

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It will be there through the weekend,

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dividing the cold from the mild.

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The question mark is -

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how far north will the jet stream get?

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And that would displace the cold air

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if it does move northwards.

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In this scenario through next week,

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we're going to see areas of low pressure

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tracking in from the Atlantic,

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delivering rain, yes,

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but delivering milder air.

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However, that is not a bolt-on certainty

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by an stretch of the imagination.

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Some computer models hold

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the jet stream further south,

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allowing high pressure to build

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to the north and pushing cold air

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in from the north-east. Colder air,

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but probably dryer as well.

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The battle continues and

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the uncertainty continues as well.

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I hopefully will update you again

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this time tomorrow.

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