14/03/2017 Weather for the Week Ahead


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14/03/2017

Detailed weather forecast.


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Hello. A very mild start to the week.

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A spring-like look and feel to things, especially in some sunshine.

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And in fact, with 16.6 Celsius,

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Monday was Northern Ireland's warmest day of the year so far.

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And on Tuesday, south-east England could see 18 Celsius or more

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for the UK's highest temperature of the year so far.

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But contrast those scenes with this.

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A house encased in ice on the shores of Lake Ontario in New York State

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after several days of arctic winds.

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And my gran used to say

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what they get in the USA eventually comes to the UK.

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We're not going to see this,

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but the weather in the north-east of the USA

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will impact our weather pattern later this week,

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as I'll show you in a moment.

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But first to our weather for Tuesday.

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High pressure giving us fine conditions,

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just being squeezed a little bit to the south,

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allowing a weak weather front

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to take some patchy rain through parts of northern England

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and Wales to begin the day.

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Following that, brighter skies for Scotland.

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Plenty of showers in the far north,

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with strong winds gusting in excess of 70mph,

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giving an impact on travel here.

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Central and eastern parts of England seeing the best of the sunshine.

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And again, that possibility of 18 Celsius or more

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in south-east England.

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Now, as we go into Wednesday,

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high pressure is allowed to bulge back northwards again,

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so a lot of dry weather.

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Rather cloudy, though, in southern England, South Wales,

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across Northern Ireland,

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and northern Scotland, with some outbreaks of rain coming back.

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Looks like the lion's share of the sunshine

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will be in northern and eastern England on Wednesday.

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On Thursday, many of us starting dry.

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A weather front weakening as it pushes southwards.

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But there are stronger weather fronts

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and weather systems to come

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as our weather turns more active at the end of the week

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and for the weekend.

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Why? Well, we go back to what's going on in the USA.

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And this is the big picture for Tuesday.

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This is a nor'easter.

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It's a storm that drags loads of moisture in to cold air

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in place in the north-east of the USA,

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producing copious snow, up to 20 inches in New York,

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with a blizzard warning in force for New York City.

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And clearly, there's a load of cold air in place

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across Canada and the USA.

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Quite a tight thermal gradient,

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that's the change of temperature over a distance,

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not just at the surface,

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but higher in the atmosphere at jet stream level.

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And the jet stream thrives off that thermal gradient.

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And as that comes out of North America and across the Atlantic

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going through this week, the jet stream gets stronger,

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takes a more direct track towards the UK,

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taking weather systems our way, turning things cooler as well.

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Not going to see a huge amount of snow,

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but I think snow is likely, again, in the Scottish hills for a time.

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But what most of us will notice

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is weather systems coming right across the UK,

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the end of the week and into the weekend,

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with stronger winds, lower temperatures

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and, of course with these, wetter weather for many of us.

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So, here's Friday.

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The first of these more powerful systems on the stronger jet stream

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diving south-eastwards across the UK,

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last to get into south-east England.

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Notice those temperatures coming down.

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And then a windy picture at the start of the weekend.

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If you're not getting rain, you will get some showers at some stage.

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But then going into the start of next week, it looks like

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although there are weather systems still coming our way,

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they may not be as powerful

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and there will be bigger gaps developing

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in-between these weather systems,

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so although there will be spells of wind and rain,

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particularly across northern parts of the UK,

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next week, there'll be drier, brighter spells

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that may last a bit longer in-between.

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With the drier, brighter spells,

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it could turn quite chilly, with a touch of frost.

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But overall, although temperatures are up and down,

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they are looking quite average.

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So, there you are.

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A hint that what's happening in the USA

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may just have an impact on our weather for a time.

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Maybe my gran was onto something after all.

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