:00:24. > :00:30.I am the UK correspondents for two global news channels in France and
:00:31. > :00:34.in English and I am delighted to be here at Chatham House, Chatham House
:00:35. > :00:42.where I learned many, many things. And I hope you will in this debate
:00:43. > :00:47.learn a few things. The title of the debate is French Presidential
:00:48. > :00:52.Election Result, What Next For France And You? Yesterday on the 7th
:00:53. > :00:57.of May, voters elected, French voters elected a Emmanuel Macron to
:00:58. > :01:06.be their new president. He won over 66% of the votes, yet Macron set up
:01:07. > :01:10.his centrist on Marsh movement only 13 months ago. This is absolutely
:01:11. > :01:16.unprecedented and quite remarkable. The fact that he is 39 years old is
:01:17. > :01:22.also very remarkable, by French standards, as I am sure many of will
:01:23. > :01:29.know. Marine Le Pen hailed a historic result for the far right,
:01:30. > :01:33.an extraordinary 34%, which by French national standards is also
:01:34. > :01:37.quite remarkable. I should remark that the turnout is around 74%, the
:01:38. > :01:44.lowest for a run-off in almost 50 years. So many questions, but what
:01:45. > :01:50.we already know is that this is a seismic shift in French politics.
:01:51. > :01:55.For the first time in the history of the fifth Republic, no mainstream
:01:56. > :01:59.party candidates, from the Socialist party or the Republicans, the French
:02:00. > :02:03.equivalent, if you will, of Labour and the Conservatives, have made it
:02:04. > :02:09.through to the second round. We would all agree on the word,
:02:10. > :02:13.possibly, two outsiders were in the run-off. One won handsomely last
:02:14. > :02:23.night, Emmanuel Macron. Some voters have already today been
:02:24. > :02:27.voicing caution about Emmanuel Macron saying, it's not about the
:02:28. > :02:32.vote where you adhere to something, you asuppose to, agree with those
:02:33. > :02:38.policies, but that they were mainly motivated to keep Marine Le Pen out
:02:39. > :02:43.of power. He in his first speech last night and today has promised to
:02:44. > :02:49.fight division and promote hope and reconciliation. He has the huge
:02:50. > :02:55.colossal task of building a governing majority for his newcomer
:02:56. > :03:01.movement. It's not even officially a political party. So, what will be
:03:02. > :03:06.the impact of this new presidency for foreigns, what will be the
:03:07. > :03:11.impact of this new presidency and the new president with the many
:03:12. > :03:16.reforms he want Toscary out and the hope that he carries colossal hope
:03:17. > :03:20.that he carries with him, he will be sworn in, President Hollande
:03:21. > :03:26.confirmed that this morning, next Sunday when in fact President
:03:27. > :03:32.Hollande's mandate expired. -- expires. I'm delighted to say that
:03:33. > :03:36.with me, and it's normally a big chestnut but now it's not. I have an
:03:37. > :03:41.eminent panel. From the extreme right, no reflection on you,
:03:42. > :03:48.Jonathan! I sign youed up. That's all right! So, author, history of
:03:49. > :03:52.modern France, many things besides, the Guardian, you were in Hong Kong
:03:53. > :04:00.for many years, I could go on, I won't. Dr Francois, lecturer in
:04:01. > :04:09.relations, Queen Mary University of London. Dr Susan Gullar, senior
:04:10. > :04:13.lecturer in French politics and contemporary university studies,
:04:14. > :04:19.University of Sussex. And of course I've skipped an eminent person in
:04:20. > :04:28.the middle there and he is, lest you didn't know, Mr Peter Ricketts. You
:04:29. > :04:34.were ambassador in France, you had the great privilege from 2012-2016,
:04:35. > :04:40.so very relevant and recent experience. So we are going to find
:04:41. > :04:44.out if Mr Macron is going to be good or bad for Brexit and many other
:04:45. > :04:49.things besides. John that, you have eight minutes, and I do mean eight
:04:50. > :04:54.minutes, to talk real hi about the historical perspective with special
:04:55. > :04:57.attention to the fact that the two mainstream parties, the socialists
:04:58. > :05:01.and the la republic that didn't make it. I'll keep an eye on the clock.
:05:02. > :05:06.Tell me when we get to seven minutes!
:05:07. > :05:13.Of course, that has been, as you said in the earthquake element to
:05:14. > :05:18.this election that, the Socialist Party is very split and probably
:05:19. > :05:26.like a lot of other Socialist Parties in Europe is facing a period
:05:27. > :05:30.of prolonged decline with the possibility of a decision by people
:05:31. > :05:34.like the former Prime Minister who came out for Macron against the
:05:35. > :05:39.socialist candidate in the first round. So you can see, as happened
:05:40. > :05:43.in Britain with the Labour Party and the Social Democrats, the
:05:44. > :05:52.possibility, I would say probability of a split and two of the socialists
:05:53. > :05:56.big beasts, the Defence Minister and boss of Britain and the Mayor of
:05:57. > :06:00.Lyon have been working in Macron's back room all through the campaign.
:06:01. > :06:05.So you can see the division of the socialists who probably will not be
:06:06. > :06:14.able to put it together again and of course are menaced on their left by
:06:15. > :06:20.the group that got 19% in the first round compared with 6%. I think the
:06:21. > :06:25.socialists are pretty much heading for a twilight there. The
:06:26. > :06:29.Republicans, it's rather different. At, of course, where we are now is
:06:30. > :06:34.really only the first round, if you like. The second round of four which
:06:35. > :06:37.we are going to have in France because we have Parliamentary
:06:38. > :06:43.elections on the 11th and 18th June. That will be the real testing time
:06:44. > :06:47.for Macron. I think his victory over Le Pen was always going to be there.
:06:48. > :06:50.If I say so, I was writing about this as a probability back in
:06:51. > :06:56.February and so you could see that with the decline of Ffion. She was
:06:57. > :07:02.never going to guess the necessary reservoir of votes on the second
:07:03. > :07:07.round from people that voted for candidates on the first round. So in
:07:08. > :07:19.a sense, Macron, it's no surprise that he won but his real test will
:07:20. > :07:30.come at the National Assembly elections next month when her
:07:31. > :07:38.opposition has no chance of winning. It shows 250 in one poll. That is
:07:39. > :07:41.ridiculous. Lots of people around Macron are betting on the
:07:42. > :07:47.presidential dynamic that the feeling that under the fifth
:07:48. > :07:53.republic, once France has voted for a president out of cohesion with
:07:54. > :07:57.their own initial vote, voters will go for that candidate's party.
:07:58. > :08:02.History just doesn't bear this out. Even the goal, when he found it, the
:08:03. > :08:07.fifth republic in the midst of the threat of Civil War in Algeria and
:08:08. > :08:13.everything else in 1958 couldn't put together a Parliamentary what
:08:14. > :08:24.generate of his own had to make other arrangements.
:08:25. > :08:33.You The most likely outcome of this, because at Parliamentary elections
:08:34. > :08:37.local roots count. The presidentern election, particularly this year,
:08:38. > :08:42.was more of a referendum. It was more for or against Le Pen rather
:08:43. > :08:47.than for or against Macron, as such. But the partry election will be very
:08:48. > :08:52.influenced by local implantation of deputies and it's quite possible
:08:53. > :08:56.that the Republicans will stage something of a comeback at that
:08:57. > :09:01.point, meaning that Macron will not have a majority in the National
:09:02. > :09:07.Assembly, meaning that we will go into a form of coalition Government
:09:08. > :09:10.between Macron and the Republicans. Certainly some of the Republicans on
:09:11. > :09:14.television last night were more or less saying, yes, I'd be happy to
:09:15. > :09:20.work with him, so long as we can keep our identity as a separate
:09:21. > :09:26.party which Republicans have to do to prevent Marine Le Pen whose real
:09:27. > :09:30.aim has never been 2017, always aiming for 2022 by when she hopes
:09:31. > :09:34.she'll build up the National Front as the big National Party, a
:09:35. > :09:39.Nationalist Party on the right so. The Republicans have to look, they
:09:40. > :09:44.don't want to be eaten away, gnawed away by the left or by the National
:09:45. > :09:50.Front on their right. I would guess they'll go into a coalition. If you
:09:51. > :09:54.look at Macron's main economic policies, cutting corporate tax,
:09:55. > :09:58.which is the highest in the EU, removing the wealth tax from
:09:59. > :10:03.investments and Labour liberalisation, the kind that he
:10:04. > :10:07.tried to put through on his economics minister but Hollande
:10:08. > :10:10.backed off it and they put through a half-hearted law which still
:10:11. > :10:17.produced a lot of protests for the result. The Republicans agree with
:10:18. > :10:22.all of that, so you can see a policy agreement coming in the centre of
:10:23. > :10:25.French politics, reaching out to the Social Democrats on one side and the
:10:26. > :10:31.more liberal Republicans on the other. The Republicans were probably
:10:32. > :10:36.split between the hard liners and more liberal people. Here we've got
:10:37. > :10:41.a very fluid situation which will test Macron's ability as a political
:10:42. > :10:46.fixer, basically. And while we say, you know, this was the upset
:10:47. > :10:50.election with the two outsiders, as you say in that, really that was not
:10:51. > :10:54.the case. Le Pen's been around for an awfully long time, you know. I
:10:55. > :10:57.remember her back in the 1990s and so on. She's run before. The
:10:58. > :11:01.National Front round has been there for a long time. What's happened
:11:02. > :11:05.this time is that it's legitimized itself with a third of the
:11:06. > :11:11.electorate and you could see a possible path to the Elysee if there
:11:12. > :11:17.had been even higher abstentions and shifts of votes. Macron is the
:11:18. > :11:21.insurgent in that the left has upset the apple cart. But he's the
:11:22. > :11:25.ultimate establishment candidate. He stands for all the things that the
:11:26. > :11:34.French Parisian elite establishment stands for. This is not a rebel, you
:11:35. > :11:38.know, he's pro-European, he wants market-led reforms, he's socially
:11:39. > :11:49.liberal. You couldn't, you know, make up a better person. How he's
:11:50. > :11:53.going to operate within the party, the surviving party system, will be
:11:54. > :11:58.one big test, and the other test to finish will be that Le Pen and her
:11:59. > :12:07.opponent will have a couple of deputies between them and for the
:12:08. > :12:12.CGT becoming more militant as it loses members, we'll have a lot
:12:13. > :12:20.ahead to come. Thank you very much for setting the scene. I like that
:12:21. > :12:24.political fixer. We are going to talk branding later on, Marine Le
:12:25. > :12:34.Pen wants to change the name of her party. Let's move on swiftly and
:12:35. > :12:39.totally organically to Dr Bicek, can you talk to us about the forthcoming
:12:40. > :12:44.elections, also as Jonathan was saying, the potential difficulty of
:12:45. > :12:49.trying to get a governing majority, a little bit about the workings of
:12:50. > :12:53.the two ballot system and a couple of remarks, if you would, a tall
:12:54. > :12:57.task I'm asking you to do, but for the implications for the French
:12:58. > :13:03.economy? Yes, thank you. Well, one good thing
:13:04. > :13:08.about the outcome of the presidential election is that now
:13:09. > :13:14.the doom merchants can now go back to their boxes. The level of
:13:15. > :13:21.political scars are tremendously reduced. It already did two weeks
:13:22. > :13:26.ago after the first round. So the key question, as Jonathan outlined
:13:27. > :13:34.is, there is still uncertainty in how and whether Macron can conjure
:13:35. > :13:38.up a majority. Will he be able to govern and bring about, implement
:13:39. > :13:43.the programme of social and economic reform. There was another element
:13:44. > :13:49.there of uncertainty that I think is also less than it was previously in
:13:50. > :13:54.terms of European politics and maybe this hasn't been covered so much
:13:55. > :14:01.today, but in Germany, Angela Merkel's party actually came first
:14:02. > :14:06.in the state election. That happened unexpectedly. So it looks like the
:14:07. > :14:11.German elections are coming up in September, you know. It's quite
:14:12. > :14:20.possible that the democrats might be re-elected. But even if they are
:14:21. > :14:24.not, if it's the Social Democrats, I think Martin Schulz's approach would
:14:25. > :14:31.be not that much different. In terms of European politics, we are in
:14:32. > :14:36.quite good steady ground now, not that possible disruption that the Le
:14:37. > :14:49.Pen presidency would have brought. So let me then talk a little bit
:14:50. > :14:55.about the Parliamentary elections. So, as Jonathan outlined, Macron's
:14:56. > :15:03.movement has to first of all select candidates for 77 constituencies. To
:15:04. > :15:08.my knowledge, they have only confirmed so far 14 nominations, so
:15:09. > :15:12.they have a lot of work to do without an organisation and without
:15:13. > :15:16.public funding, because in France political parties get a big slice of
:15:17. > :15:20.the funding from the state. That is based on Parliamentary presentation.
:15:21. > :15:31.So if you are a new party starting off, you don't have any seats so you
:15:32. > :15:38.already lose that. Plus, he's also demanding that there should be
:15:39. > :15:43.parity in terms of man and woman. So equal candidates of men and women.
:15:44. > :15:48.Mostly from civil societies. So trying to reduce the number of
:15:49. > :15:58.politicians or at least bring renewal in that way. Moreover, he
:15:59. > :16:07.also said, whichever candidates decides to run for the left will
:16:08. > :16:13.have to renounce their intentions so we may see some change in regards to
:16:14. > :16:17.left candidates, mainly it will affect left candidates. So this
:16:18. > :16:21.raises a question about the future of the Socialist Party and I think
:16:22. > :16:28.maybe Susan will talk about that a bit later on. For the elections,
:16:29. > :16:31.there's also a two-ballot system. It works slightly differently because,
:16:32. > :16:37.for the presidential election in the second one, it's a bindery choice
:16:38. > :16:42.between two candidates in the legislative elections, whichever
:16:43. > :16:45.candidate wins more than 12. 12.4% of registered voters, not those
:16:46. > :16:48.who've voted, can proceed to the second round. That's still quite a
:16:49. > :16:59.high barrier. Often in French elections thereof
:17:00. > :17:07.three candidates that go into the second round, and at the last
:17:08. > :17:14.election there were three candidates fighting for individual seats. We
:17:15. > :17:23.could even have four candidates because of the nature of the system,
:17:24. > :17:30.so previous polls are not a good indication to predict what the
:17:31. > :17:35.situation might be next June. So there is lots of uncertainty there,
:17:36. > :17:40.but at the same time, as Jonathan outlined, because macron is a
:17:41. > :17:50.centrist and is claiming to do politics beyond left and right he
:17:51. > :17:56.might be able to get close to the 289 seats, but unlikely. So there is
:17:57. > :18:00.probably a coalition of some kind, probably from the left, but possibly
:18:01. > :18:08.from the UDI, the centre-right party. They lost Macron in the
:18:09. > :18:14.second round, but now they want to defend their own seats, so they will
:18:15. > :18:19.not be so eager to wave the banner, and it will be a quite interesting
:18:20. > :18:28.thing to watch in terms of coordination between the parties in
:18:29. > :18:31.the two rounds. Traditionally, the 1-party system was less fragmented
:18:32. > :18:37.than today and the parties on the left the right, two mainstream
:18:38. > :18:42.parties would strike electoral pact between the two rounds and the
:18:43. > :18:49.candidate who came out on top would then fight the seat on behalf of the
:18:50. > :18:53.Alliance in that district. Whereas now the coordination might be upset
:18:54. > :18:59.because there are more parties in play. So what does that mean? It
:19:00. > :19:09.means Macron will have difficulty getting a mandate for his policies,
:19:10. > :19:13.and he may have to content with some awkward partners in his coalition,
:19:14. > :19:17.assuming it is a coalition government. Not only that, he will
:19:18. > :19:21.also have to contend with the power of the street because we know that
:19:22. > :19:26.is what happens in France. If you try to do anything a little too
:19:27. > :19:32.drastic. His intention is to really push through some major labour
:19:33. > :19:39.reforms. He's talking about rushing them through this summer, using the
:19:40. > :19:44.presidential power of decree. So a lot of interesting things to come.
:19:45. > :19:50.One last thing, putting his presidency in the European context
:19:51. > :19:56.and he is very much pro-European. One of the few leaders to have
:19:57. > :20:00.campaigned on the pro-Europe mandate. Most national politicians
:20:01. > :20:07.will talk about Europe that national elections, but he did. And he wants
:20:08. > :20:13.to go quite far. I would almost qualify his aim as creating a
:20:14. > :20:22.minister of finance in the Eurozone, a parliament in the Eurozone. So not
:20:23. > :20:28.necessarily good news for Brexit. But we will come back to that. The
:20:29. > :20:32.18th of June, so he does not have much time to sort out this
:20:33. > :20:37.coordination. The political fixer that Jonathan was referring to has a
:20:38. > :20:45.lot of work on his plate, as I'm sure he knows. Wright, thank you
:20:46. > :20:54.very much for that. So, Doctor Susan, I would like to focus on
:20:55. > :20:57.domestic politics, particularly with regard to the Republicans and
:20:58. > :21:00.socialist parties. I gather you came back from France this morning and
:21:01. > :21:07.you have hotfooted it to Chatham House. Overnight. And I think you
:21:08. > :21:12.came from spending the weekend in rural Normandy. From Normandy to
:21:13. > :21:16.Chatham House, excellent. Take us there. Enlighten us. I'm not going
:21:17. > :21:21.to talk about Normandy unless anybody really wants me to. That is
:21:22. > :21:29.a whole other debate. If you want that debate, I'm sure she can do it.
:21:30. > :21:32.I am going to phrase this in terms of whether or not Macron is
:21:33. > :21:35.representing the dawn of a new era for French politics and whether
:21:36. > :21:43.things will be really different this time or not. Will he really be able
:21:44. > :21:48.to change things fundamentally, or will they just be a bit of tinkering
:21:49. > :21:51.around? I think for things to change fundamentally there are two main
:21:52. > :21:55.things I've identified. I've only got eight minutes, but one of them
:21:56. > :22:00.is modernising and moralising public life and political life. This is
:22:01. > :22:04.really important and he will start on the straightaway and it's really
:22:05. > :22:08.important. The second one is the whole question of the recomposition
:22:09. > :22:14.of the party system in France. That is the one I will focus on most
:22:15. > :22:18.because they have broken the mould. It's the most extraordinary thing
:22:19. > :22:23.when you know the history of French politics and the fifth Republic.
:22:24. > :22:29.This is partly due to contingent factors. He got lucky with the
:22:30. > :22:35.Penelope situation and with the far right rivals, lucky that France was
:22:36. > :22:42.Holland wasn't standing again. But they're also long-term trends that
:22:43. > :22:47.this was on the cards. There is disillusionment with traditional
:22:48. > :22:50.parties, corruption, efficiency and no trust in politics, and this has
:22:51. > :22:54.led to the fact that none of them have been able to deal with the
:22:55. > :22:58.problem of unemployment which is really at the heart of everything.
:22:59. > :23:03.So can Macron really bring about this recomposition of French
:23:04. > :23:06.politics and political parties? Can he break down the left and right
:23:07. > :23:13.divide that has driven French politics since the revolution? Can
:23:14. > :23:17.he facilitate the emergence of a centre in French politics. The
:23:18. > :23:21.centre in French politics has struggled to exist. It has been
:23:22. > :23:28.split. Most of it has aligned with the right because of the bipolar
:23:29. > :23:32.rising system. This is something new that has happened with his appeal to
:23:33. > :23:35.both right and left. As I was thinking about this over the last
:23:36. > :23:43.weeks and months, I thought back to some work I did ten years or so ago
:23:44. > :23:51.about the French exception which I know Jonathan has written a book on.
:23:52. > :23:55.And I would like to quote something from a historian who wrote in the
:23:56. > :23:58.preface to this book that we are all agreed that we are at a turning
:23:59. > :24:04.point and an era is coming to an end. What he was talking about was
:24:05. > :24:09.the fact that it looked as if at that time both right and left had
:24:10. > :24:13.begun to bury their differences and had both signed the single European
:24:14. > :24:18.act and it seemed the first time we would be able to talk about
:24:19. > :24:21.consensus in French politics and move away from this revolutionary
:24:22. > :24:31.divide and he said that the revolution was dead. At the time
:24:32. > :24:33.this and the other two people -- that wrote the essays in the book,
:24:34. > :24:41.that this was the beginning of the end of the French exception. The
:24:42. > :24:49.title was the Republic of the centre. What they were calling for
:24:50. > :24:52.was a centrist republic. And at the time, it was Francois Mitterrand's
:24:53. > :24:58.free election in 1998 and he was talking a lot about opening, the new
:24:59. > :25:02.nationalisation and privatisation, so there was good grounds to think
:25:03. > :25:13.that this might be a new move in French politics and he pointed
:25:14. > :25:15.Michelle Rocca, who tried to bring people into his government from
:25:16. > :25:18.outside the normal French society. He had a method of trying to
:25:19. > :25:24.conciliate differences which was unique to him. So this looks are not
:25:25. > :25:33.to mix the moment for thinking that things might change -- this looked
:25:34. > :25:42.am optimistic moment. So what will Macron's government look like and
:25:43. > :25:47.how will he govern? Mitterrand did not get on with his partner at all,
:25:48. > :25:51.but nevertheless there are reasons to be optimistic for Macron. What
:25:52. > :25:57.he's trying to do really does look different. I think he has a lot of
:25:58. > :26:00.support for people who are fed up with old politics and want to join
:26:01. > :26:06.in his attempt to do new politics. His attempt to recruit deputies
:26:07. > :26:09.through his Internet campaign looks exciting. They have all these
:26:10. > :26:20.workshops and he's really determined to get parity. And there is plenty
:26:21. > :26:26.of enthusiasm. There is reason to believe that he might succeed. But
:26:27. > :26:31.the centrist republic that was hoped for did not materialise because it
:26:32. > :26:36.got bogged down in devising politics in the 1990s, largely driven by the
:26:37. > :26:42.Maastricht debate and its consequences. And when you look at
:26:43. > :26:46.that Maastricht debate replayed in the 2005 Constitutional Treaty
:26:47. > :26:51.referendum, you can see in this election those same factors at play,
:26:52. > :26:58.for and against Europe. So that very close Maastricht vote, 50.5%, almost
:26:59. > :27:03.50% of the population voted in the first round for anti-European
:27:04. > :27:10.parties. So is Macron likely to do any better? Well, circumstances are
:27:11. > :27:13.a bit different. We have the rise of the National front which means that
:27:14. > :27:17.the stakes are really high. This is critical. If he does not get it
:27:18. > :27:22.right we know who will be in next time round. We also know there will
:27:23. > :27:28.be strong resistance from both left and right to maintain their
:27:29. > :27:35.traditional positions. The Republicans are insisting they will
:27:36. > :27:38.get a majority and have decided that Barron will be the Prime Minister,
:27:39. > :27:43.so they want to have it in reverse, an absolute majority and they will
:27:44. > :27:46.deal with Macron. I think it is unlikely they will get an absolute
:27:47. > :27:50.majority. I'm going to say they won't. They are very divided and the
:27:51. > :27:54.leadership has been hugely divided over the last few weeks. But maybe
:27:55. > :28:02.the voters will say that this is their chance to vote that they did
:28:03. > :28:04.not get in the first round because of the Penelope situation. Many
:28:05. > :28:09.things have been said in the last few weeks that cannot be unsaid, and
:28:10. > :28:13.there will be lots of local deals, and the threat of Marine Le Pen's
:28:14. > :28:19.transformation of the National front which means she will try to suck in
:28:20. > :28:24.those people who will potentially want to line up with her in the
:28:25. > :28:27.future. Some have already said they have given their support to Macron,
:28:28. > :28:31.so it seems to me that the Republicans are very fragile at the
:28:32. > :28:39.moment and claiming to be rock solid but I don't think they are. In the
:28:40. > :28:45.future, we can quite possibly imagine another renaming. If you
:28:46. > :28:48.look at it, it has changed its name endlessly and will probably do that
:28:49. > :28:53.again. The Socialist party, as we've already heard, it has a long-term
:28:54. > :28:59.problem. Since 1983 the failure of the socialist experiment, Mitterrand
:29:00. > :29:04.put this into a parenthesis and said it was a pause and we will come back
:29:05. > :29:06.to socialism, but it is a big battle between socialism and social
:29:07. > :29:11.democracy. What is the Socialist party? There have been various
:29:12. > :29:15.people who wanted to change the name in the past and they have a glorious
:29:16. > :29:20.history to call back on so they don't want to do that, but now it it
:29:21. > :29:26.has come for them. So we will see that people like vowels will end up
:29:27. > :29:29.there. There is hardly any ideological leader. The clear leader
:29:30. > :29:34.on the left refused to do a deal with Macron for the first round, so
:29:35. > :29:42.we will see on the radical left a rejigging of the cards. And your
:29:43. > :29:45.final thought? My conclusion is that the legislative elections are
:29:46. > :29:49.obviously crucial, because depending on how many seats people get, and
:29:50. > :29:54.they have groups in Parliament and the voting share, that will be
:29:55. > :29:59.critical. So we could have the absolute majority, a relative
:30:00. > :30:02.majority, which is what was previously successfully worked with
:30:03. > :30:07.in 1988, or we could have this coalition of ideas. A relative
:30:08. > :30:12.majority and a coalition of ideas are quite similar things. I think
:30:13. > :30:21.that is probably the most likely. So, I think that there will be an
:30:22. > :30:26.elan after this macro and will do well in terms of gaining seats and I
:30:27. > :30:32.think he will be able to govern -- Macron. This is despite the fact
:30:33. > :30:37.that there is a lot of anger in the one camp, who are very bad losers.
:30:38. > :30:42.So in the longer term, whoever he has to govern with, he has to clean
:30:43. > :30:47.up politics, modernise politics and bring down unemployment. Can he do
:30:48. > :30:52.this? Can he bring the centre in? Can he get people talking to each
:30:53. > :31:00.other? My head says it is difficult but my heart says, yes, go for it.
:31:01. > :31:07.And the French will say, he who lives will tell the tale. There was
:31:08. > :31:15.so much anger at Mr Macron, that in between various things, he called Mr
:31:16. > :31:20.Macron eight presidential monarch -- a presidential monarch, which is
:31:21. > :31:23.even strong by French standards. Last but not least, Lord Peter
:31:24. > :31:29.Ricketts. Let's talk about French foreign policy. We know that he is
:31:30. > :31:33.the master of French foreign policy even if he does not get what he
:31:34. > :31:41.wants in the assembly. Also Mr Macron, which we started to look,
:31:42. > :31:44.his position on the EU. What is his attitude to the UK for the upcoming
:31:45. > :31:54.negotiations in Brexit? Thank you very much. I know Emmanuel
:31:55. > :31:59.Macron reasonably well. Tell us more. When I was the Paris
:32:00. > :32:04.ambassador he was an economic staffer in the sham police aid. I
:32:05. > :32:09.say that to reinforce what others have said, what an extraordinary
:32:10. > :32:14.achievement. -- in the palace. To go from the economic counsellor four
:32:15. > :32:20.years ago to being not only a new political head of government, like a
:32:21. > :32:25.new Tony Blair or David Cameron, but a head of state. The French have
:32:26. > :32:28.chosen a 39-year-old to represent them as head of state and be the
:32:29. > :32:33.political leader. It is extraordinary. People have talked
:32:34. > :32:43.about his style. I think people know that now. His intelligence, his
:32:44. > :32:46.charm, a... He speaks English. He speaks English. Some French
:32:47. > :32:54.politicians speak English... He is proud of his English. He has an
:32:55. > :32:59.extraordinary capacity to persuade, convene, people have said Sue which
:33:00. > :33:05.is real. I used to go into his office a lot as other people did and
:33:06. > :33:10.thought, this guy is a brand. Everybody comes out of his office
:33:11. > :33:19.thinking he is a friend. -- this guy is a friend. Many people said,
:33:20. > :33:24.actually this young man, although he is a former banker, he is very
:33:25. > :33:27.persuasive. Do not underestimate his capacity to convene. I think that
:33:28. > :33:32.will be important. The other thing about him relevance to foreign
:33:33. > :33:38.policy is unlike most presidential candidates, Francois said this, he
:33:39. > :33:44.said what he intended to do. He campaigned for labour market reform,
:33:45. > :33:51.free trade, strengthening Europe, things others have not dared say.
:33:52. > :33:53.They have tended to say bromide, President Sarkozy and Francois
:33:54. > :33:59.Hollande, finding they had hard choices in government. Macron saw it
:34:00. > :34:03.coming and he has engaged and committed himself on these issues
:34:04. > :34:11.and he has one. He has arrived with a mandate. -- he has won it. He has
:34:12. > :34:15.got a mandate on the EU to strengthen and reform it, strengthen
:34:16. > :34:21.the Eurozone, the governance of the Eurozone, work with Angela Merkel,
:34:22. > :34:24.and that mandate fits his convictions that Europe is in the
:34:25. > :34:29.French interest. I have heard him say it many times in private. Like a
:34:30. > :34:33.lot of younger people in France idealistic about your-macro and he
:34:34. > :34:38.would want it to be stronger because he thinks it is in the French
:34:39. > :34:41.interest. -- about your-macro. He will go with the free trade
:34:42. > :34:50.agreement with the US and no doubt will work with Angela Merkel on
:34:51. > :34:52.other things. -- EU. Brexit will not be his priority. It is indeed an
:34:53. > :34:59.affront to everything that Macron believes in. He thinks it is a
:35:00. > :35:05.serious mistake. And a crime. Even a crime. I think he will use it to
:35:06. > :35:10.move the 27 forward. That'll be his priority. And he will want to
:35:11. > :35:15.attract jobs to France, taking what opportunities he can for France to
:35:16. > :35:18.win from this. But I do not think he will be in the business of
:35:19. > :35:23.punishment of Britain. I think he will want a deal. He is a deal-maker
:35:24. > :35:29.by nature. He will want a tough bargain. He will want to be clear
:35:30. > :35:32.that Britain has lost out by leaving the EU but he will want a bargain at
:35:33. > :35:38.the end of the day and not a failure. I think that is relevant. I
:35:39. > :35:43.am sure he will want to have his say in the negotiations, has Angela
:35:44. > :35:48.Merkel will. When it comes to real deals, he will want to be there. On
:35:49. > :35:52.foreign policy, he does not come with baggage. He has not been a
:35:53. > :35:58.foreign policy specialist. For example he does not come in with a
:35:59. > :36:03.curious pro-Russia slant of many leading French politicians or
:36:04. > :36:07.anti-Americanism which has been in the French DNA since President
:36:08. > :36:10.Charles de Gaulle. I think he will want France to be active on the
:36:11. > :36:15.international stage, pulling its weight at the Security Council and
:36:16. > :36:21.particularly he will want to work with the EU and see a rejuvenated
:36:22. > :36:27.foreign policy. And see if European defence can mean anything real. For
:36:28. > :36:32.the UK, I have talked about Brexit. I think he will be a tough
:36:33. > :36:36.negotiator but will want a deal. I know that he believes in UK and
:36:37. > :36:40.French defence cooperation. I have talked to him about it. He is not a
:36:41. > :36:47.specialist but he understands the logic of the UK and France with the
:36:48. > :36:52.premier military forces working together in operations and defence
:36:53. > :36:57.equipment. Unless the Brexit deal is very bad I do not see that will
:36:58. > :37:00.affect UK and French defence. But we might have to accept another drive
:37:01. > :37:07.towards more European defence with him. Lastly, Calais. Has not been
:37:08. > :37:17.mentioned yet. He has said a number of times that he will want to reopen
:37:18. > :37:22.the deal. I do not think he means... On the fundamental deal allowing
:37:23. > :37:25.juxtaposition of control on two side, bringing enormous benefit for
:37:26. > :37:29.both sides. I am a bit puzzled he continues to make that point because
:37:30. > :37:36.the situation Calais is a lot less bad than it was when I was
:37:37. > :37:38.ambassador two years ago when we had large migrant intonations --
:37:39. > :37:43.incursions into the tunnel and port. It is more under control. I think
:37:44. > :37:49.what will happen is the president of the region Calais, he has been
:37:50. > :37:54.gravitating towards Macron. I think he has an influential role, if he
:37:55. > :37:57.has a ministerial role I would expect Calais to be higher up the
:37:58. > :38:03.agenda because it is a big issue for him. I do not see why Macron should
:38:04. > :38:07.particularly make it a priority and open up a difficult discussion with
:38:08. > :38:12.the UK. I'm sure he would want to look at the issue but I do not think
:38:13. > :38:18.it is a priority for him. Final sentence, this President genuinely
:38:19. > :38:20.believes reforming France and having France active internationally,
:38:21. > :38:26.overall I think it is a good thing for the UK. -- believes in reforming
:38:27. > :38:32.France. A lot of food for thought. Some disagreement. Do you think Mr
:38:33. > :38:39.Macron will get a majority and succeed in doing that, get a
:38:40. > :38:44.governing majority? I believe in the theory of the magnetic attraction of
:38:45. > :38:48.presidential power. If France has just elected this young charismatic
:38:49. > :38:54.figure as president, there will be a strong momentum behind giving him
:38:55. > :39:02.some sort presidential majority in parliament. So a group of En Marche
:39:03. > :39:06.MPs, people say they will all be new and a gravitational effect on the
:39:07. > :39:08.Democrat side, socialists and the centre-right, I think he can put
:39:09. > :39:14.together some kind of governing Coalition. Susan is right, it will
:39:15. > :39:19.not be an absolute majority but it will be a basis to govern. There
:39:20. > :39:24.will be some turbulence but I think there will be a magnetic attraction.
:39:25. > :39:27.One very quick question, it is almost yes or no, I know it is a
:39:28. > :39:35.little bit unfair but I would like to get to questions, how realistic
:39:36. > :39:38.is it to think Marine Le Pen could score really well as she announces
:39:39. > :39:44.in the next few days a radical different name, you know, tries
:39:45. > :39:52.again to detoxify and separate herself, Jonathan? I think she will
:39:53. > :39:56.have a difficult time. She will be pushing the Republicans on her left,
:39:57. > :40:04.as it were, they will be fighting to keep their position. A room for
:40:05. > :40:07.expansion is quite limited. And if you noticed, in the last stages of
:40:08. > :40:13.the presidential campaign she very much was talking to her base. She
:40:14. > :40:17.was not enlarging. Her first round score was actually about seven
:40:18. > :40:23.points below what she had at the beginning of the year. She will be
:40:24. > :40:29.there in 2022, at the crossroads, if Macron falls on his face, of course.
:40:30. > :40:33.But I think her room for expansion, especially given the nature of the
:40:34. > :40:36.Republican front in the second round at Parliamentary elections will
:40:37. > :40:43.limit her. That is a very brief answer! Thank you. I have a separate
:40:44. > :40:48.question from you, sorry, I am moving on. That is very much about
:40:49. > :40:53.the euro. There is a school of thought today, knives are already
:40:54. > :40:58.sharpening in the National Front, that there is already a distance
:40:59. > :41:04.today and that it was a big mistake for Marine Le Pen to actually follow
:41:05. > :41:11.that speaking about getting rid of the euro and so on. Do you agree
:41:12. > :41:16.with her? Yes. It came through very clearly in the debate last week
:41:17. > :41:20.between her and Macron. The economic policy was full of holes. And when
:41:21. > :41:24.she started being questioned about how would it work with the French
:41:25. > :41:30.franc for individuals and, you know, the euro for transactions, it did
:41:31. > :41:37.not make sense. One currency for this and one for that... She started
:41:38. > :41:40.talking less and less about this. The polls showed the majority of
:41:41. > :41:44.French people want to keep the euro anyway. I think that was a
:41:45. > :41:46.nonstarter. Thank you very much.