0:00:07 > 0:00:08Welcome to Planet Oil.
0:00:11 > 0:00:13Over the last 150 years,
0:00:13 > 0:00:17we've become more and more dependent on this extraordinary resource.
0:00:21 > 0:00:23Our use of oil defines us.
0:00:27 > 0:00:29It's not just transport.
0:00:29 > 0:00:32Oil helps us build and light our cities.
0:00:35 > 0:00:36It grows the food we eat.
0:00:38 > 0:00:41And it helps make the clothes we wear.
0:00:43 > 0:00:45But that comes at a high price.
0:00:48 > 0:00:49To satisfy our addiction,
0:00:49 > 0:00:53we've exploited fossil fuels on an industrial scale.
0:00:57 > 0:01:00As a professor of geoscience, I've taught many students
0:01:00 > 0:01:03who went on to earn big money as geologists
0:01:03 > 0:01:04in the oil and gas industries.
0:01:07 > 0:01:10Like many of my academic colleagues, I now face a dilemma...
0:01:12 > 0:01:14..whether the young geologists I'm training
0:01:14 > 0:01:16will become earth exploiters...
0:01:18 > 0:01:20..or earth stewards.
0:01:22 > 0:01:24Today, the spectre of climate change
0:01:24 > 0:01:27has forced many geologists, including myself,
0:01:27 > 0:01:31to confront the stark realities of one big question facing us all.
0:01:31 > 0:01:34And that is, given that there's loads of fossil fuels
0:01:34 > 0:01:36still in the ground,
0:01:36 > 0:01:39can we really afford to burn what's left?
0:01:48 > 0:01:51But just how did we get here?
0:01:53 > 0:01:56And is it really possible to kick our addiction?
0:02:13 > 0:02:15I grew up in the seventies,
0:02:15 > 0:02:18and I remember it as a decade plagued by energy crises.
0:02:21 > 0:02:24Back then, climate change wasn't on the radar.
0:02:25 > 0:02:28What gripped us was the lack of a reliable oil supply.
0:02:31 > 0:02:33Would the lights keep going out?
0:02:39 > 0:02:42Would there be enough fuel for our cars?
0:02:49 > 0:02:52Come the eighties, when I was a fresh-faced geology student,
0:02:52 > 0:02:55all that was about to change.
0:03:05 > 0:03:07Rather than a lack of oil,
0:03:07 > 0:03:09we were about to confront a world with too much of it.
0:03:15 > 0:03:17This is the Statfjord platform,
0:03:17 > 0:03:21which sits on one of the largest oilfields in the North Sea.
0:03:24 > 0:03:27The Norwegians have drilled it since 1979,
0:03:27 > 0:03:31but the huge revenues it produces is shared with the UK.
0:03:41 > 0:03:45Wow! So this is North Sea oil, crude.
0:03:45 > 0:03:47It's amazing to think that an hour or so ago,
0:03:47 > 0:03:51that was 3,000 metres down below us
0:03:51 > 0:03:53and had been sitting there very happily for, I don't know,
0:03:53 > 0:03:56150 million years, and look at it now.
0:03:56 > 0:03:58It's just pure liquid money.
0:03:58 > 0:04:01That's amazing!
0:04:05 > 0:04:08The discovery of oil from these waters was announced to the press
0:04:08 > 0:04:11in 1971 at Aberdeen airport.
0:04:11 > 0:04:14The announcement came from this BP representative
0:04:14 > 0:04:17who was wearing a tartan shirt, a hard hat,
0:04:17 > 0:04:19and holding a bottle of salad cream,
0:04:19 > 0:04:22filled with what seemed to be flat Guinness.
0:04:22 > 0:04:25And he said, "This is North Sea oil!"
0:04:26 > 0:04:28But the thing was, it wasn't any old oil.
0:04:28 > 0:04:32The field in question was the fabled Forties Field,
0:04:32 > 0:04:36with a whopping 1.8 billion barrels of oil.
0:04:36 > 0:04:39It's what's known in the business as an elephant field.
0:04:39 > 0:04:42The North Sea oil industry was born.
0:04:46 > 0:04:49Britain scrambled to extract the oil.
0:04:49 > 0:04:52And within a decade, we were enjoying the benefits.
0:04:52 > 0:04:56By 1985, the UK Treasury was earning a staggering
0:04:56 > 0:05:00£2.5 million per hour in revenues.
0:05:00 > 0:05:05Oil stimulated the economy and helped pull us out of recession.
0:05:06 > 0:05:08And in the late eighties, Britain was booming...
0:05:11 > 0:05:14..and still new reservoirs of oil were being discovered.
0:05:14 > 0:05:17Oil companies poured billions into developing
0:05:17 > 0:05:19yet more offshore facilities.
0:05:20 > 0:05:25Jim Cook, installation manager of Shell's Shearwater platform,
0:05:25 > 0:05:27was there during that North Sea bonanza.
0:05:27 > 0:05:32There was a huge sense of adventure, a huge sense of unknown.
0:05:32 > 0:05:35When you got on that helicopter, you didn't really know
0:05:35 > 0:05:38- what you were going into, and then you arrived.- Yeah.
0:05:40 > 0:05:42And the technology changes
0:05:42 > 0:05:44that was going on was extraordinary, wasn't it?
0:05:44 > 0:05:48It's huge. When you think back in the early days
0:05:48 > 0:05:50when we built some of the really big platforms,
0:05:50 > 0:05:52they were built on site.
0:05:52 > 0:05:55You know it was not unusual
0:05:55 > 0:05:59to have 2,000 guys living over three complex installations
0:05:59 > 0:06:02building everything out here.
0:06:02 > 0:06:05It was almost a mini Industrial Revolution.
0:06:05 > 0:06:08Was there any inkling in your minds and those around you at the time
0:06:08 > 0:06:10that it was going to grow this big?
0:06:10 > 0:06:13No. It was only supposed to last a few years.
0:06:13 > 0:06:15It was the golden years, it was a boom.
0:06:18 > 0:06:21But it was more than a boom. For a short time,
0:06:21 > 0:06:24the North Sea produced as much oil as Saudi Arabia.
0:06:26 > 0:06:30Around the same time, other huge discoveries were made in Alaska...
0:06:32 > 0:06:34..and the Gulf of Mexico.
0:06:37 > 0:06:40All this new oil meant the world was swimming in it.
0:06:43 > 0:06:47But as the world markets were hit by the deluge, prices plummeted.
0:06:51 > 0:06:54The world was flooded with oil.
0:06:54 > 0:06:56The financial press complained of an oil glut.
0:06:56 > 0:06:59In fact, there was so much oil that, at one point,
0:06:59 > 0:07:01the price of oil was cheaper than bottled water.
0:07:03 > 0:07:07You would think that cheap oil would be good news for all.
0:07:07 > 0:07:11While oil helped the UK claw its way out of an economic recession,
0:07:11 > 0:07:14for other nations, it would prove to be a disaster.
0:07:18 > 0:07:20The Soviet Union was rich in oil,
0:07:20 > 0:07:24and the Russians had been selling it to the West for nearly a century.
0:07:27 > 0:07:30When prices were high, the hard-dollar earnings from oil
0:07:30 > 0:07:34had helped pay for the Soviet nuclear arms programme
0:07:34 > 0:07:36and essentials like food and clothing imports.
0:07:38 > 0:07:41But when the price of oil dropped in the 1980s,
0:07:41 > 0:07:44the whole Soviet economy was threatened.
0:07:52 > 0:07:54This mural's a tribute to all those workers
0:07:54 > 0:07:57that toiled away in the Soviet oilfields.
0:07:57 > 0:08:01You get a sense there of just how much struggle every drop was.
0:08:01 > 0:08:05But despite upping production, by 1991,
0:08:05 > 0:08:08the Soviet Empire itself was bleeding to death.
0:08:08 > 0:08:11And what was helping to kill it was the price of oil.
0:08:15 > 0:08:18As the Soviet economy collapsed, rationing was introduced.
0:08:23 > 0:08:28Vera Neserova can remember living under the last days of Soviet rule.
0:08:28 > 0:08:31Can I ask, at what point did rationing come in,
0:08:31 > 0:08:34and were you surprised that it suddenly came in?
0:08:52 > 0:08:53Was there any warning?
0:08:53 > 0:08:56Was there any indication that something was going to come in?
0:09:13 > 0:09:16The person in charge of the Soviet Union at the time
0:09:16 > 0:09:18was President Mikhail Gorbachev.
0:09:18 > 0:09:21He came to power determined to modernise both the economy
0:09:21 > 0:09:24and the political system that suffocated it.
0:09:25 > 0:09:29But when the oil prices collapsed, so did his plan.
0:09:33 > 0:09:37The economic and political system in the Soviet Union was already broken.
0:09:39 > 0:09:41But when the price of oil collapsed,
0:09:41 > 0:09:45the great centrally-planned socialist economy
0:09:45 > 0:09:48could no longer adequately clothe and feed her people.
0:09:49 > 0:09:52Mikhail Gorbachev then took an extraordinary
0:09:52 > 0:09:54and unprecedented step.
0:09:56 > 0:09:59On Christmas Day, 1991,
0:09:59 > 0:10:02he went on TV to declare a state of national emergency.
0:10:28 > 0:10:30Six days later,
0:10:30 > 0:10:33Mikhail Gorbachev announced the dissolution of the Soviet Union.
0:10:33 > 0:10:37The mighty Soviet Empire had just gone bust.
0:10:41 > 0:10:44Cheap oil had helped to bring this mighty empire to its knees.
0:10:46 > 0:10:48As the Soviet Union crumbled,
0:10:48 > 0:10:52it left behind untold riches in land and natural resources...
0:10:53 > 0:10:55..all of which was now up for grabs.
0:11:00 > 0:11:02One of the empire's most precious resources
0:11:02 > 0:11:05were the oil reserves of the Caspian Sea.
0:11:08 > 0:11:11I'm in what I guess is best described as the town square,
0:11:11 > 0:11:14but the nearest dry land is 50 miles in that direction.
0:11:14 > 0:11:16And this place is just weird.
0:11:16 > 0:11:19You've got these holiday-style apartment blocks,
0:11:19 > 0:11:20you've got football pitches,
0:11:20 > 0:11:22telephone exchanges, museums, cafes.
0:11:22 > 0:11:26Inside there, you've got a restaurant, a sports centre.
0:11:26 > 0:11:28There's a mosque, there's a hospital.
0:11:30 > 0:11:32This is Neft Dashlari -
0:11:32 > 0:11:35an entire town built on the Caspian Sea.
0:11:37 > 0:11:41It was constructed by the Soviets towards the end of the 1940s.
0:11:41 > 0:11:44Thousands of workers lived out at sea,
0:11:44 > 0:11:47travelling along miles of road
0:11:47 > 0:11:50to extract oil from hundreds of wells.
0:11:57 > 0:11:59It grew to become one of the largest
0:11:59 > 0:12:01offshore oil facilities in the world.
0:12:07 > 0:12:10And when the Soviet Union collapsed in the early nineties,
0:12:10 > 0:12:15it fell into the hands of a newly-independent Azerbaijan.
0:12:17 > 0:12:20With the Soviets gone, everyone asked two questions -
0:12:20 > 0:12:23how much oil was left under the Caspian,
0:12:23 > 0:12:26and who would get their hands on it?
0:12:41 > 0:12:43It's no wonder that in the early nineties,
0:12:43 > 0:12:47Western oil companies flocked like vultures to the Caspian region
0:12:47 > 0:12:49to court Azerbaijan's new rulers.
0:12:53 > 0:12:57This could be the new Persian Gulf - an oily El Dorado.
0:13:01 > 0:13:03And the Azeris were ready to make a deal.
0:13:09 > 0:13:13In September, 1994, after months of negotiation,
0:13:13 > 0:13:16Azerbaijan's President Heydar Aliyev
0:13:16 > 0:13:18assembled this group of diplomats and oil executives
0:13:18 > 0:13:20in the capital, Baku.
0:13:20 > 0:13:2413 oil companies representing eight different nation states
0:13:24 > 0:13:27were gathered there to sign what was hailed as
0:13:27 > 0:13:29the deal of the century.
0:13:29 > 0:13:33What was at stake were billions of barrels of oil.
0:13:34 > 0:13:37Caspian oil was being opened up to the world.
0:13:45 > 0:13:48It probably doesn't seem like much, does it, but, actually, this is
0:13:48 > 0:13:51the most significant expression of that deal of the century?
0:13:52 > 0:13:56This pipeline marks a step change in Caspian oil production.
0:13:56 > 0:13:58You can actually feel it throbbing.
0:13:58 > 0:14:01That throb is the pulse of huge amounts of oil
0:14:01 > 0:14:05that's been drawn up from thousands of metres beneath the Caspian Sea,
0:14:05 > 0:14:08only to be sent underground again here, heading west.
0:14:13 > 0:14:15From here on the Caspian coast,
0:14:15 > 0:14:19the new pipeline travelled underground for 500 miles to Supsa,
0:14:19 > 0:14:21on the Black Sea.
0:14:21 > 0:14:24And from there, oil would be transported to Europe and beyond.
0:14:26 > 0:14:28The vast reserves of the Caspian Sea
0:14:28 > 0:14:30were being unleashed on a world
0:14:30 > 0:14:32that was already flooded with oil.
0:14:36 > 0:14:38But that was just the beginning,
0:14:38 > 0:14:40because the oil production of the Caspian
0:14:40 > 0:14:44had accelerated at a rate that no-one could have imagined.
0:14:50 > 0:14:52This is the Sangachal terminal.
0:14:52 > 0:14:57Run by BP, it's one of the largest oil and gas terminals in the world.
0:15:00 > 0:15:04Caspian oil was so abundant that the foreign oil companies decided
0:15:04 > 0:15:07that another bigger pipeline would be needed,
0:15:07 > 0:15:09along with this terminal to service it.
0:15:12 > 0:15:15The new pipeline would allow the oil companies to transport
0:15:15 > 0:15:18more oil out of Azerbaijan than ever before.
0:15:20 > 0:15:23So, what's going through here at the moment
0:15:23 > 0:15:27is in excess of 700,000 barrels of oil every day of the week.
0:15:27 > 0:15:31At any one point in time we've got something like
0:15:31 > 0:15:35ten million barrels of crude sitting in this pipeline.
0:15:35 > 0:15:38- So, how much would that be worth? - That's somewhere...
0:15:38 > 0:15:40At today's prices, that's in excess of a billion dollars.
0:15:44 > 0:15:46All that oil has had an extraordinary effect
0:15:46 > 0:15:48on Azerbaijan's capital, Baku.
0:15:50 > 0:15:53Often dubbed the Dubai of the Caucasus,
0:15:53 > 0:15:55Baku feels like a city in transition.
0:15:56 > 0:15:59It's a testament to the transformative power of oil.
0:16:02 > 0:16:06Traditional buildings rub shoulders with modern skyscrapers.
0:16:06 > 0:16:08Brand stores pop up on streets
0:16:08 > 0:16:12clogged with the proud owners of Western cars.
0:16:12 > 0:16:15And as the 20th century came to a close,
0:16:15 > 0:16:18a similar story was being played out across our planet.
0:16:18 > 0:16:22Oil was now being produced in Alaska, the Gulf of Mexico,
0:16:22 > 0:16:25South America, West Africa, the North Sea,
0:16:25 > 0:16:27the Caspian, and the Middle East.
0:16:35 > 0:16:38Meanwhile, developing nations looked with envy
0:16:38 > 0:16:41at the West's lifestyle, and were demanding the same.
0:16:42 > 0:16:48The burgeoning economies of South-East Asia, India and China
0:16:48 > 0:16:52were consuming more and more energy in the form of travel,
0:16:52 > 0:16:59plastics, clothes, food, electronics and housing.
0:17:00 > 0:17:02There might have been loads of oil,
0:17:02 > 0:17:06but, globally, we were guzzling it like never before.
0:17:09 > 0:17:11As global consumption escalated,
0:17:11 > 0:17:14questions were being asked about the coming century.
0:17:14 > 0:17:17Could supply possibly continue to match demand?
0:17:17 > 0:17:19What next for Planet Oil?
0:17:22 > 0:17:24As the 21st century dawned,
0:17:24 > 0:17:27the world's stock markets began to wake up to
0:17:27 > 0:17:30the unprecedented economic boom of the eighties and nineties.
0:17:32 > 0:17:36The scale of the hydrocarbon binge was breathtaking
0:17:36 > 0:17:40and some traders and speculators suspected it wasn't sustainable.
0:17:42 > 0:17:45Any further increase in demand, or reduction of supply,
0:17:45 > 0:17:46could only mean one thing...
0:17:50 > 0:17:51..a price rise.
0:17:52 > 0:17:55And that would be disastrous for us all.
0:17:55 > 0:17:57We'd become so reliant on oil,
0:17:57 > 0:17:59it now fuelled the modern global economy.
0:18:02 > 0:18:06A hike in oil prices would impact on every aspect of our lives.
0:18:08 > 0:18:10Ensuring a steady and secure supply
0:18:10 > 0:18:13had become crucial to keeping prices stable.
0:18:20 > 0:18:23One way the oil companies found to secure more oil
0:18:23 > 0:18:25was by using ships like this.
0:18:25 > 0:18:27It's called the Gryphon Alpha.
0:18:28 > 0:18:32You can't see them from the air, but beneath the waves,
0:18:32 > 0:18:37pipelines from nearby oil platforms snake their way across the seabed
0:18:37 > 0:18:39to feed this floating oil and gas facility.
0:18:43 > 0:18:45It allows companies to extract oil
0:18:45 > 0:18:49without building an expensive pipeline to take the oil ashore.
0:18:50 > 0:18:55It can separate oil and gas, store half a million barrels of oil,
0:18:55 > 0:18:58and then pump it onto waiting tankers
0:18:58 > 0:19:00that ship it to onshore refineries.
0:19:07 > 0:19:09The oil that Robert's sampling here
0:19:09 > 0:19:12has come off of pipelines about 100 metres below us on the seabed,
0:19:12 > 0:19:16coming up here through separators that take off the water and the gas
0:19:16 > 0:19:19and then leave the finished product.
0:19:19 > 0:19:21This...is Brent crude.
0:19:23 > 0:19:25The really important point is that
0:19:25 > 0:19:28it's this stuff that sets the global price of crude.
0:19:28 > 0:19:30So those commodity brokers
0:19:30 > 0:19:33that trade on the exchange floors in New York and London
0:19:33 > 0:19:36use Brent crude to set the worldwide oil price.
0:19:36 > 0:19:39And during the first decade of the 21st century,
0:19:39 > 0:19:41those prices were rising alarmingly.
0:19:43 > 0:19:45In the first years of the millennium,
0:19:45 > 0:19:48oil prices sat at around 25 per barrel,
0:19:48 > 0:19:51thanks, in part, to a plentiful supply.
0:19:52 > 0:19:56But as developing nations grew, demand for oil rose.
0:19:57 > 0:20:01By 2006, the world was demanding four times as much oil per day
0:20:01 > 0:20:03as it had in 2000.
0:20:06 > 0:20:09This sharp rise became known as the demand shock.
0:20:11 > 0:20:13Many started to voice concerns
0:20:13 > 0:20:16that the rate of consumption was becoming unsustainable,
0:20:16 > 0:20:21including oilman and President of the United States, George Bush.
0:20:23 > 0:20:27Keeping America competitive requires affordable energy,
0:20:27 > 0:20:29and here we have a serious problem -
0:20:29 > 0:20:31America is addicted to oil.
0:20:32 > 0:20:35As demand rose, the price of oil rocketed.
0:20:36 > 0:20:40By January 2008, the price broke the 100 per barrel barrier.
0:20:43 > 0:20:46And it didn't stop there,
0:20:46 > 0:20:48climbing to 130 in May,
0:20:48 > 0:20:51140 in July,
0:20:51 > 0:20:54peaking at a record-breaking 147 per barrel.
0:20:57 > 0:21:00To some, this could only mean one thing -
0:21:00 > 0:21:01demand had outstripped supply.
0:21:03 > 0:21:05Many in the financial markets
0:21:05 > 0:21:08assumed we were facing something called peak oil.
0:21:12 > 0:21:15To get a sense of just how quickly the world became
0:21:15 > 0:21:17gripped by the spectre of peak oil,
0:21:17 > 0:21:19you just need to look at
0:21:19 > 0:21:22these two front covers of the Economist Magazine.
0:21:22 > 0:21:26This one's from 1999, when oil was something like 10 a barrel
0:21:26 > 0:21:29and it proclaims that we're "drowning in oil".
0:21:29 > 0:21:33And yet, four years later, when demand shock forced up prices,
0:21:33 > 0:21:36the same magazine announced that it was all over.
0:21:38 > 0:21:41It was at this point that environmentalists and journalists
0:21:41 > 0:21:43recalled the predictions
0:21:43 > 0:21:46of an American scientist called Marion King Hubbert.
0:21:48 > 0:21:49In the mid 1950s,
0:21:49 > 0:21:53Hubbert had predicted that US oil would peak in 1970.
0:21:53 > 0:21:57The US will hit the peak of oil production
0:21:57 > 0:22:00in about 10 or 15 years from that date.
0:22:00 > 0:22:03In other words, the production of oil would reach a maximum peak,
0:22:03 > 0:22:06and then inevitably decline as reserves ran dry.
0:22:08 > 0:22:11The oil companies laughed this off,
0:22:11 > 0:22:14but when production did peak, Hubbert was hailed as a prophet.
0:22:17 > 0:22:20But he made a second and more disturbing prediction -
0:22:20 > 0:22:23that in the early decades of the 21st century,
0:22:23 > 0:22:25we would run out of oil all together.
0:22:29 > 0:22:32When oil prices spiked in 2008,
0:22:32 > 0:22:35some believed the price rise reflected a grim truth -
0:22:35 > 0:22:37we had reached peak oil
0:22:37 > 0:22:40and that, from now on, our oil reserves were in decline.
0:22:42 > 0:22:44It was looking like Hubbert was right.
0:22:44 > 0:22:46The threat of a looming energy crisis
0:22:46 > 0:22:49had sparked global panic buying.
0:22:49 > 0:22:51That demand shock had fuelled the belief that this was
0:22:51 > 0:22:55the beginning of the end, that peak prices meant peak oil
0:22:55 > 0:22:58and that, from now on, we were running out.
0:22:58 > 0:23:01So, have supplies peaked?
0:23:01 > 0:23:02Are we really running on empty?
0:23:06 > 0:23:09Just months after the sharp price rises of 2008,
0:23:09 > 0:23:12oil prices fell just as dramatically as they had rocketed.
0:23:15 > 0:23:17But the drop only went so far.
0:23:18 > 0:23:21While prices have fluctuated ever since,
0:23:21 > 0:23:24they're still higher than the average of 25 per barrel
0:23:24 > 0:23:27we enjoyed for much of the 20th century,
0:23:27 > 0:23:32and that's because the days of easy oil are over.
0:23:36 > 0:23:39The age of discovering vast new viable reserves
0:23:39 > 0:23:40like the North Sea has passed.
0:23:40 > 0:23:45We're now left with oil that's more difficult and expensive to extract.
0:23:48 > 0:23:53That huge price hike in the first decade of the 21st century
0:23:53 > 0:23:55had an unexpected benefit -
0:23:55 > 0:23:58the profits of the oil companies skyrocketed as well.
0:23:58 > 0:24:02And much of that was reinvested in ways to help geologists find
0:24:02 > 0:24:04ways to maximise recovery,
0:24:04 > 0:24:07or to extend the lives of the existing fields.
0:24:09 > 0:24:12The companies were trying to find new ways
0:24:12 > 0:24:14to extract the oil that we're so dependent on.
0:24:15 > 0:24:17And they continue to do so today.
0:24:34 > 0:24:37Just south of Abu Dhabi, in the United Arab Emirates,
0:24:37 > 0:24:39is a huge training facility.
0:24:41 > 0:24:43Here, a new generation of oil workers
0:24:43 > 0:24:45are trained in using new technology
0:24:45 > 0:24:48that's designed to recover as much oil as possible.
0:24:51 > 0:24:54The age of what we call easy oil is gone, right?
0:24:54 > 0:24:59We were almost in that state maybe 30 or 40 or 50 years ago
0:24:59 > 0:25:01when, in Saudi Arabia, you'd be able to drill a well
0:25:01 > 0:25:05without really looking too much and you'd get good production from it.
0:25:05 > 0:25:10But as oil wells age, right, they fill with water rather than oil,
0:25:10 > 0:25:13right, cos you pump water from the side, to push the oil out.
0:25:13 > 0:25:16So it gets very complicated.
0:25:16 > 0:25:18So, Clive, this looks like something
0:25:18 > 0:25:20that's kind of out of a sci-fi movie.
0:25:20 > 0:25:22What is this beast?
0:25:22 > 0:25:26This is a formation microimager, and it has around 200 buttons
0:25:26 > 0:25:29around those pads that you've just seen closing,
0:25:29 > 0:25:31and we'll open that in the well,
0:25:31 > 0:25:36so it'll give us an image, an electrical map, of the borehole,
0:25:36 > 0:25:40which will help geologists to describe the reservoir properly,
0:25:40 > 0:25:43and be able to know where to drill the next well, perhaps.
0:25:45 > 0:25:48This technology is essentially a science lab on a wire.
0:25:50 > 0:25:52It can perform a barrage of tests
0:25:52 > 0:25:54that allow geologists to see underground.
0:25:57 > 0:25:59So, Clive, is this the well?
0:25:59 > 0:26:02Yeah, so what we're seeing here is a graphical representation
0:26:02 > 0:26:05of that electrical image I was talking about.
0:26:05 > 0:26:08These are your eyes into the ground that you were referring to earlier.
0:26:08 > 0:26:11This is the lab, yeah. Lab on a wire, yeah.
0:26:11 > 0:26:15This technology is being used every day to help us
0:26:15 > 0:26:19extend the lives of the reservoirs, to make sure we get everything
0:26:19 > 0:26:22out of the reservoirs that we can do.
0:26:22 > 0:26:24Is it things like this that's essentially
0:26:24 > 0:26:28kind of, you know, putting paid to the idea of peak oil?
0:26:28 > 0:26:32You'll always be able to get more and more through better technology.
0:26:32 > 0:26:35If you look at the world oil reservoirs,
0:26:35 > 0:26:38some have produced 30, 40, 70%,
0:26:38 > 0:26:40some have only produced a few percent.
0:26:40 > 0:26:42So there's plenty of oil left in the ground,
0:26:42 > 0:26:45you just have to be cleverer in the way you extract it.
0:26:45 > 0:26:49While the age of easy oil might be behind us,
0:26:49 > 0:26:52new technologies are helping us find and extract
0:26:52 > 0:26:53ever more difficult sources.
0:26:55 > 0:26:59The prospect of peak oil, it seems, is being pushed back yet again.
0:27:06 > 0:27:09But it's not just that we've got smarter at getting oil.
0:27:09 > 0:27:12We've also found new ways to exploit fossil fuels.
0:27:16 > 0:27:20Titusville is a small town in western Pennsylvania.
0:27:20 > 0:27:23It was here, in 1859,
0:27:23 > 0:27:25that the world's first commercial drilling for oil began.
0:27:36 > 0:27:37Today, yet again,
0:27:37 > 0:27:40this region is at the forefront of an energy revolution.
0:27:43 > 0:27:48This is shale, a rock that underlies much of the Pennsylvanian region.
0:27:48 > 0:27:52It's just mud turned into stone. Sounds kind of boring really,
0:27:52 > 0:27:56but it's what's locked in with the mud that makes all the difference.
0:28:02 > 0:28:03Heating the liquid solution
0:28:03 > 0:28:06allows us to see what's trapped in the rock.
0:28:07 > 0:28:09Initially, not much happens.
0:28:09 > 0:28:11But after a few minutes,
0:28:11 > 0:28:14the heating makes gas trapped in the rock expand,
0:28:14 > 0:28:16and it bubbles to the surface.
0:28:18 > 0:28:21And energy companies have been racing to extract this gas
0:28:21 > 0:28:23in a process called fracking.
0:28:24 > 0:28:26Water is pumped under high pressure
0:28:26 > 0:28:29to crack the rock and release the gas.
0:28:32 > 0:28:35These tiny bubbles might not seem like much,
0:28:35 > 0:28:36but shale gas has made the US
0:28:36 > 0:28:40a major hydrocarbon-producing nation once again.
0:28:40 > 0:28:42Some experts even say that it might
0:28:42 > 0:28:44displace Russia and the Middle East
0:28:44 > 0:28:46as the world's biggest energy producer...
0:28:47 > 0:28:48..Saudi America.
0:28:52 > 0:28:55This success isn't just due to shale gas.
0:28:56 > 0:29:00Oil sources are also being exploited in new and unconventional ways.
0:29:02 > 0:29:05Heavy oil, tar sands, shale oil.
0:29:05 > 0:29:09Collectively known as "unconventional oil and gas",
0:29:09 > 0:29:11these resources stand in contrast
0:29:11 > 0:29:14to the conventional wells we've relied on.
0:29:16 > 0:29:19This has led to a period of optimism in the US.
0:29:19 > 0:29:22It's business as usual.
0:29:23 > 0:29:27With new technology extending the life of conventional wells,
0:29:27 > 0:29:29and unconventional resources being extracted,
0:29:29 > 0:29:31it seems like the Hydrocarbon Age
0:29:31 > 0:29:34will extend well into the 21st century.
0:29:37 > 0:29:41So, Steve, how important have the unconventional fossil fuels been?
0:29:41 > 0:29:47Unconventionals, today, make up about 7% of the global oil supply
0:29:47 > 0:29:50so they're important, but they're not the core of it.
0:29:50 > 0:29:5593% of the oil supply is still what was there in 2005, OK?
0:29:55 > 0:29:57So, the way to think about unconventionals
0:29:57 > 0:30:00is they're the icing on the cake, but not the cake itself.
0:30:00 > 0:30:04That cake, today, is smaller than it was in 2005,
0:30:04 > 0:30:08so that conventional... If we take out oil sands and shale oils,
0:30:08 > 0:30:13the conventional supply is actually smaller than it was in 2005.
0:30:13 > 0:30:15So, basically, we've got the conventional,
0:30:15 > 0:30:17the traditional oil supplies declining,
0:30:17 > 0:30:19the unconventionals are getting bigger,
0:30:19 > 0:30:22but they're dwarfed, really, by the conventionals?
0:30:22 > 0:30:24Correct, they're still very small,
0:30:24 > 0:30:26and we don't know how far they can run.
0:30:26 > 0:30:28Is it the case that the unconventionals -
0:30:28 > 0:30:31shale oil, shale gas - have kind of masked peak oil,
0:30:31 > 0:30:33essentially, masked the decline?
0:30:33 > 0:30:35They have masked it in terms of the press
0:30:35 > 0:30:38and in terms of the industry...narrative.
0:30:38 > 0:30:42The concern is not the volume of oil in the ground.
0:30:42 > 0:30:45There's plenty of oil in the ground, lots and lots and lots of oil.
0:30:45 > 0:30:47The question is, can we get to it,
0:30:47 > 0:30:49and can we do that in an economical way?
0:30:49 > 0:30:53MUSIC OVER SPEECH
0:30:53 > 0:30:57Since Hubbert raised the spectre of peak oil in the 1950s,
0:30:57 > 0:31:00experts like Steve have been debating if he was right,
0:31:00 > 0:31:02and when we might run out of oil.
0:31:03 > 0:31:05But it seems to me that there's no easy answer
0:31:05 > 0:31:07to the issue of peak oil...
0:31:08 > 0:31:11..because it's an issue that revolves around
0:31:11 > 0:31:13how much oil we consume, how much is left in the ground,
0:31:13 > 0:31:16and what price we're willing to pay.
0:31:20 > 0:31:22But it's not just about the cost of heating our homes
0:31:22 > 0:31:26or filling our cars. There could be much more at stake.
0:31:30 > 0:31:31While energy experts argue about
0:31:31 > 0:31:34whether Hubbert's peak oil prediction is right or wrong,
0:31:34 > 0:31:38the whole debate is fast becoming a bit academic.
0:31:38 > 0:31:41That's cos, in the last decade or so, a very different threat
0:31:41 > 0:31:44to our energy supplies has come to overshadow the world.
0:31:57 > 0:32:01In 1982, the BBC science series Horizon
0:32:01 > 0:32:05televised a United Nations sponsored debate on The State Of The Planet.
0:32:07 > 0:32:10Expert witnesses from around the world came together
0:32:10 > 0:32:14to examine the progress we'd made in protecting the world's environment.
0:32:17 > 0:32:19The speakers didn't pull any punches.
0:32:19 > 0:32:21They painted a pretty grim picture.
0:32:21 > 0:32:23Drought.
0:32:25 > 0:32:26Famine.
0:32:26 > 0:32:28Pollution.
0:32:28 > 0:32:29Breakneck population growth.
0:32:29 > 0:32:31Acid rain.
0:32:31 > 0:32:35Resource wars, deforestation, species extinction
0:32:35 > 0:32:38were paraded as our biggest challenges.
0:32:38 > 0:32:40No society today wants to live within
0:32:40 > 0:32:42the resources of its own environment.
0:32:42 > 0:32:45It wants resources from everywhere else.
0:32:45 > 0:32:48And in the process, nobody recognises what is
0:32:48 > 0:32:51being done to the environment because it has no interest.
0:32:51 > 0:32:53Back in the 1980s, we were just starting to get
0:32:53 > 0:32:56a sense of what would become known as global warming,
0:32:56 > 0:33:00which is why it gets barely a mention in this debate.
0:33:00 > 0:33:02But what I find fascinating about this film is that,
0:33:02 > 0:33:05while none of these issues have gone away,
0:33:05 > 0:33:09today it's climate change that dominates the environmental agenda.
0:33:09 > 0:33:14The answer as to why that is... is contained in this box.
0:33:22 > 0:33:26Since the 19th century, we've been on a fossil-fuel binge
0:33:26 > 0:33:30and the burning of hydrocarbons like coal, oil and gas
0:33:30 > 0:33:34has released carbon dioxide into the atmosphere at an unprecedented rate.
0:33:38 > 0:33:40As carbon dioxide builds up in the atmosphere,
0:33:40 > 0:33:42it creates this kind of invisible filter
0:33:42 > 0:33:45that traps more and more of the Earth's heat down here,
0:33:45 > 0:33:48rather than let it escape off into space.
0:33:48 > 0:33:51And that produces a net warming effect.
0:33:51 > 0:33:54Now, devices like this can actually measure the CO2 levels -
0:33:54 > 0:33:56the actual measuring device is in here -
0:33:56 > 0:33:59and you can see the numbers on this screen here.
0:33:59 > 0:34:00So, let's see what we get.
0:34:01 > 0:34:05Levels of carbon dioxide are measured in parts per million.
0:34:05 > 0:34:06In the 19th century,
0:34:06 > 0:34:09the level sat below 300 parts per million.
0:34:12 > 0:34:16In the 1950s, the levels were measured at 315 parts per million,
0:34:16 > 0:34:18rising to 350 by the mid-eighties.
0:34:21 > 0:34:24Since then, the levels of carbon dioxide have not only risen,
0:34:24 > 0:34:27they've accelerated rapidly.
0:34:27 > 0:34:28I know what you're thinking,
0:34:28 > 0:34:30you're thinking down here at street level,
0:34:30 > 0:34:33all this traffic and all these people breathing on it
0:34:33 > 0:34:36then this is going to be a really strange measurement,
0:34:36 > 0:34:38and, right enough, I mean, these measurements
0:34:38 > 0:34:41are pretty consistently over 400 parts per million.
0:34:41 > 0:34:43But the thing is, measurements like this get made, you know,
0:34:43 > 0:34:47every day, right across the world, and when they get averaged,
0:34:47 > 0:34:50to give you the kind of global mean, it turns out that
0:34:50 > 0:34:54that number is about 398 parts per million.
0:34:55 > 0:34:59The climate has changed many times in our planet's history,
0:34:59 > 0:35:03but, this time, much of that change is because of our behaviour.
0:35:05 > 0:35:09When we exceed 400 parts per million, we'll mark
0:35:09 > 0:35:12the highest levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide in human history.
0:35:14 > 0:35:17The concern is that, if levels continue to rise,
0:35:17 > 0:35:21we'll raise the global temperature to catastrophic levels.
0:35:23 > 0:35:25There might be lots of oil left in the ground,
0:35:25 > 0:35:29but the question is, can we really afford to burn it?
0:35:34 > 0:35:37Around 80% of the world's energy comes from fossil fuels
0:35:37 > 0:35:39and yet climate scientists are telling us
0:35:39 > 0:35:43that we've got a few decades at most to reduce our dependence on them
0:35:43 > 0:35:46and stave off dangerous climate change.
0:35:47 > 0:35:48But can we really do that?
0:35:48 > 0:35:52How easy is it to set course for a...for a low-carbon future?
0:35:56 > 0:36:00Achieving a low-carbon future means changing how we produce energy.
0:36:00 > 0:36:01We do have a range of options,
0:36:01 > 0:36:05perhaps the most obvious being renewable energy.
0:36:05 > 0:36:10All over the world, including the UK, governments are investing in
0:36:10 > 0:36:16the "renewable family" - solar, wind, hydroelectric, tidal.
0:36:18 > 0:36:20The idea of harnessing the power
0:36:20 > 0:36:24in the natural ebbs and flow of our planet is an attractive one,
0:36:24 > 0:36:28because it offers us a practically zero-carbon energy
0:36:28 > 0:36:30that doesn't rely on a finite resource.
0:36:32 > 0:36:34But for renewables to replace hydrocarbons,
0:36:34 > 0:36:38we'd need to increase their numbers massively.
0:36:38 > 0:36:40Despite years of investment,
0:36:40 > 0:36:43the entire renewable family only produces the UK
0:36:43 > 0:36:46with about 15% of all the electricity we consume.
0:36:48 > 0:36:52For some, renewables are a viable future option,
0:36:52 > 0:36:55but is seems unlikely they'll be enough on their own.
0:37:11 > 0:37:15In November 2013, a group of the world's top climate scientists
0:37:15 > 0:37:19wrote this open letter to international leaders.
0:37:19 > 0:37:21They said time is running out.
0:37:21 > 0:37:23Renewable energy supplies on their own
0:37:23 > 0:37:27won't be enough to head off the extremes of climate change.
0:37:27 > 0:37:30For them, in some shape or form,
0:37:30 > 0:37:32nuclear had to be part of the energy mix.
0:37:38 > 0:37:40Although the nuclear industry has a chequered history
0:37:40 > 0:37:43of radiation leaks and accidents like Fukushima,
0:37:43 > 0:37:47some climate scientists argue that the threat of global warming
0:37:47 > 0:37:49poses a much bigger risk to the planet.
0:37:54 > 0:37:55Here in Norway,
0:37:55 > 0:37:59research is taking place that might change the image of nuclear power,
0:37:59 > 0:38:02because they're trying an alternative to uranium fuel.
0:38:05 > 0:38:07Such a beautiful country, isn't it?
0:38:07 > 0:38:10From this hilltop you can see the port of Halden
0:38:10 > 0:38:12which is a couple of hours' drive south of Oslo,
0:38:12 > 0:38:16and then beyond that it's the... it's the fjords.
0:38:16 > 0:38:18It just doesn't seem like the kind of place
0:38:18 > 0:38:21to be testing a different kind of nuclear fuel.
0:38:21 > 0:38:25And yet what you can't see is what lies directly beneath my feet...
0:38:26 > 0:38:27..a nuclear reactor.
0:38:33 > 0:38:35Deep inside this hollowed-out mountain,
0:38:35 > 0:38:39a company called Thor Energy are conducting an experiment.
0:38:45 > 0:38:49A conventional nuclear power station is a bit like a giant kettle.
0:38:50 > 0:38:54Filled with uranium fuel pellets, fuel rods are placed in water.
0:38:56 > 0:38:58It's these pellets generate the heat
0:38:58 > 0:39:00that boils the water to create steam.
0:39:03 > 0:39:07And it's the steam which turns giant turbines to generate electricity.
0:39:09 > 0:39:13The uranium fuel pellets release huge amounts of energy,
0:39:13 > 0:39:16but the downside is that waste plutonium is produced,
0:39:16 > 0:39:18which is highly radioactive.
0:39:20 > 0:39:24The clever thing that Thor Energy are proposing to do
0:39:24 > 0:39:27is to use plutonium and mix this with an element called thorium,
0:39:27 > 0:39:30to make a new type of fuel pellet.
0:39:39 > 0:39:42So, what are the benefits of thorium?
0:39:43 > 0:39:44Many benefits of thorium.
0:39:44 > 0:39:47For a start, it's four times more plentiful than uranium,
0:39:47 > 0:39:49and we've probably got enough thorium on the planet
0:39:49 > 0:39:54to last us 10,000 years, which means it's a sustainable fuel.
0:39:54 > 0:39:57But on top of that, we can take the existing legacy waste,
0:39:57 > 0:39:59and we can use that as fuel.
0:39:59 > 0:40:04We can turn a liability, a real liability, into a real asset
0:40:04 > 0:40:06by mixing the waste that we've already got,
0:40:06 > 0:40:09from the last 50 years of nuclear power,
0:40:09 > 0:40:12with the thorium, and then burning that as fuel as well.
0:40:12 > 0:40:16So, we're generating less waste, and we're getting rid of existing waste.
0:40:18 > 0:40:22This process would not only help get rid of existing nuclear waste,
0:40:22 > 0:40:26it would generate a staggering amount of energy.
0:40:26 > 0:40:30Each pellet, like that,
0:40:30 > 0:40:34is equivalent to about 800 litres of diesel
0:40:34 > 0:40:36in terms of the energy that it can generate.
0:40:36 > 0:40:40That's a shedload of diesel. And how many of them would there be?
0:40:40 > 0:40:44In a full-scale reactor, generating electricity for the grid,
0:40:44 > 0:40:46about two million.
0:40:46 > 0:40:50I can't even do the maths! That's a lot of equivalent energy.
0:40:50 > 0:40:51A lot of equivalent energy.
0:40:51 > 0:40:54It's amazing to think that the future, or a future,
0:40:54 > 0:40:58one of the energy futures, is something the size of that.
0:40:58 > 0:41:02That's right, essentially, it's the energy for a household for a year.
0:41:02 > 0:41:05Energy for a household for a year? Wow!
0:41:05 > 0:41:07Better not swallow it. I'm going to give it back to you,
0:41:07 > 0:41:10What if I drop it! The energy of my house has just gone down that hole!
0:41:13 > 0:41:16'What Bob has handed to me seems like a magic bullet.
0:41:18 > 0:41:20'But there's a problem.
0:41:21 > 0:41:23'The tests at Halden are an attempt to prove
0:41:23 > 0:41:26'that thorium can be used on an industrial scale.
0:41:27 > 0:41:29'Initial results are positive
0:41:29 > 0:41:33'but to clear thorium for use in commercial nuclear reactors
0:41:33 > 0:41:36'will take even further tests and analysis.
0:41:38 > 0:41:42'That will take time, and investment,
0:41:42 > 0:41:45'meaning that thorium could take decades to implement.'
0:41:51 > 0:41:55But, in the meantime, our energy demands keep increasing.
0:41:55 > 0:41:59Globally, demand for electricity has doubled since 1980,
0:41:59 > 0:42:03and it's expected to double again by 2035.
0:42:04 > 0:42:06And Dubai is no exception.
0:42:09 > 0:42:14In less than a century, a sleepy fishing port has been transformed
0:42:14 > 0:42:17into one of the commercial capitals in the Gulf.
0:42:17 > 0:42:19That change has gone hand-in-hand
0:42:19 > 0:42:22with an insatiable demand for electricity.
0:42:25 > 0:42:26During peak times in Dubai,
0:42:26 > 0:42:3060% of all electricity is used for air conditioning.
0:42:34 > 0:42:36'And, after just a few minutes in the heat,
0:42:36 > 0:42:38'you can understand why.'
0:42:47 > 0:42:50You don't know how good this feels, so much better.
0:42:50 > 0:42:52I mean, basically everywhere inside around here
0:42:52 > 0:42:55is air-conditioned down to about 20 degrees.
0:42:55 > 0:42:58That's only possible because vast amounts of oil and gas
0:42:58 > 0:43:00mean abundant, cheap energy.
0:43:00 > 0:43:03So, this is the last place in the world
0:43:03 > 0:43:07that you'd expect to learn lessons about what's called the fifth fuel -
0:43:07 > 0:43:08energy efficiency.
0:43:10 > 0:43:14'Despite sitting on some of the biggest oil reserves in the world,
0:43:14 > 0:43:18'the United Arab Emirates is looking at new ways to use less energy.
0:43:19 > 0:43:24'At first glance, the parched desert landscape just outside Abu Dhabi
0:43:24 > 0:43:27'looks like the craziest place to build any city,
0:43:27 > 0:43:29'let alone a sustainable one.
0:43:30 > 0:43:33'But the vision here at Masdar City is to pioneer a new approach
0:43:33 > 0:43:36'in the way cities are designed and use energy.'
0:43:41 > 0:43:44This architecture is just beautiful, isn't it?
0:43:44 > 0:43:47- It's very elegant and distinctive. - Yeah.
0:43:47 > 0:43:50So what's the ethos about this place,
0:43:50 > 0:43:52and the kind of vision behind the whole thing?
0:43:52 > 0:43:55The whole idea is to design
0:43:55 > 0:43:57a city, engineer the city,
0:43:57 > 0:43:59so that, with very little energy,
0:43:59 > 0:44:01you can be comfortable
0:44:01 > 0:44:03even in the middle of summer.
0:44:03 > 0:44:07And every aspect of how a city is put together,
0:44:07 > 0:44:11of how a city is managed, goes towards that goal.
0:44:11 > 0:44:14So, why the emphasis on cities, or urban areas?
0:44:14 > 0:44:16Well, that's a very good point.
0:44:16 > 0:44:20If we are going to be concerned about global warming,
0:44:20 > 0:44:22and I think we should be,
0:44:22 > 0:44:27cities produce between 70 and 75% of CO2.
0:44:27 > 0:44:32So, Masdar City, as part of the Masdar ecosystem of companies,
0:44:32 > 0:44:36is particularly concerned about how cities should be designed,
0:44:36 > 0:44:39built and operated, to reduce CO2.
0:44:42 > 0:44:45'The buildings here are designed to reduce emissions
0:44:45 > 0:44:49'by making them more energy efficient in the hot desert climate.
0:44:53 > 0:44:57'And the people behind the Masdar project believe this is a principle
0:44:57 > 0:45:00'that can be applied to any building, anywhere in the world.'
0:45:04 > 0:45:09I'm intrigued by this dominating structure.
0:45:09 > 0:45:12- This is the wind tower.- Wind tower?
0:45:12 > 0:45:15In classical Arabian design,
0:45:15 > 0:45:20the idea was to catch the breeze higher up which is cooler,
0:45:20 > 0:45:23and funnel it down through the structure
0:45:23 > 0:45:28so that cooler air was where people were in courtyards and in houses.
0:45:28 > 0:45:34And traditionally, you used to cool the air by having damp cloths,
0:45:34 > 0:45:37or animal skins with water in them.
0:45:37 > 0:45:40Here, we use modern technology where we can cool it
0:45:40 > 0:45:43with misting, and it pushes it down.
0:45:43 > 0:45:47So, if we go into the middle, it'll get cooler, is that the theory?
0:45:47 > 0:45:49- Absolutely.- Can I try it?- Yeah.
0:45:49 > 0:45:52So, it's evaporative cooling, essentially, the science of it.
0:45:52 > 0:45:54That's exactly what it is.
0:45:54 > 0:45:56- So...- So...
0:45:56 > 0:45:59- Oh, yeah, yeah. As soon as you get in, you feel it.- Much better.
0:46:04 > 0:46:07'Similar tricks are used to keep the temperature down.
0:46:09 > 0:46:12'Narrow lanes and tall buildings ensure shade.
0:46:13 > 0:46:16'Windows are designed to break up hot sunlight.
0:46:23 > 0:46:25'The work extends to the transport.
0:46:26 > 0:46:29'Electric, driverless cars take you from one place to another.
0:46:32 > 0:46:35'It's tempting to be sceptical about Masdar City.
0:46:35 > 0:46:38'Just how likely is it that we'll see things like this in London,
0:46:38 > 0:46:41'Manchester or Glasgow?
0:46:41 > 0:46:44'But Masdar City hopes it will inspire others
0:46:44 > 0:46:47'to take energy efficiency seriously,
0:46:47 > 0:46:50'and to plan homes and cities with this in mind.
0:46:51 > 0:46:54'And Masdar's ambitions don't end there.
0:46:54 > 0:46:57'The company is also pioneering the use of renewable energy,
0:46:57 > 0:46:59'and not just here in Masdar City.'
0:47:06 > 0:47:10A couple of hours south of Abu Dhabi, the Masdar Project has built
0:47:10 > 0:47:13the biggest solar plant in the Middle East.
0:47:14 > 0:47:17In keeping with their green credentials, this solar plant
0:47:17 > 0:47:20can provide year-round power to 20,000 homes.
0:47:32 > 0:47:35As a geologist, I find it ironic that these solar panels,
0:47:35 > 0:47:38all quarter of a million of them, are sitting on top of
0:47:38 > 0:47:41the biggest oil and gas reserve on the planet.
0:47:42 > 0:47:44And that's the rub, really.
0:47:44 > 0:47:48I mean, it's perverse that we're so utterly dependent on those
0:47:48 > 0:47:51finite hydrocarbons deep beneath our feet
0:47:51 > 0:47:55rather than the kind of limitless, renewable energy up here.
0:47:57 > 0:48:01Masdar's vision is of cities that are designed for an environment
0:48:01 > 0:48:04and powered by renewables.
0:48:04 > 0:48:07Yet, critics would claim all these renewables are all well and good,
0:48:07 > 0:48:12but can't satisfy the gluttonous demands of our modern world.
0:48:16 > 0:48:18'Nuclear, renewables and energy efficiency
0:48:18 > 0:48:22'could all play a role in solving our future energy problems.
0:48:23 > 0:48:27'The difficulty we face is that it will take years, possibly decades,
0:48:27 > 0:48:31'until these energy sources exist on such a scale
0:48:31 > 0:48:33'that they can replace hydrocarbons.'
0:48:36 > 0:48:39In other words, it's going to take time.
0:48:40 > 0:48:42Time is something climate scientists
0:48:42 > 0:48:44are warning us we don't have.
0:48:46 > 0:48:49So, how can we reduce our carbon emissions
0:48:49 > 0:48:52while we wait for alternative energy sources to be ready?
0:48:55 > 0:48:58Over 60 miles off the Aberdeenshire coast,
0:48:58 > 0:49:00out in the wilds of the North Sea,
0:49:00 > 0:49:02one of the world's biggest energy producers
0:49:02 > 0:49:04is working on an innovative solution.
0:49:04 > 0:49:10Until 2011, Shell's Goldeneye platform used to suck natural gas
0:49:10 > 0:49:14from below the seabed, gas that was used to heat our homes.
0:49:16 > 0:49:19Today, Shell is developing one of the world's first
0:49:19 > 0:49:23commercial-scale carbon capture and storage projects, CCS.
0:49:23 > 0:49:26Iain, we are in a world that's going to need a lot more energy,
0:49:26 > 0:49:28and a lot less CO2.
0:49:28 > 0:49:31And CCS, Carbon Capture and Storage, is the one technology
0:49:31 > 0:49:35that is going to allow us to keep using the power plants,
0:49:35 > 0:49:38the heavy industry, without the CO2 emissions going up in the air.
0:49:38 > 0:49:43The new project proposes something deceptively simple -
0:49:43 > 0:49:47use the pipes that once extracted gas, and reverse the flow.
0:49:50 > 0:49:55Carbon dioxide emissions from a power station would be captured,
0:49:55 > 0:49:59and existing pipes would transport it along 60 miles of sea floor
0:49:59 > 0:50:01to the Goldeneye platform.
0:50:08 > 0:50:11There, the gas would travel down five wells,
0:50:11 > 0:50:15and start to fill the reservoir that once provided us with natural gas.
0:50:17 > 0:50:20So, is the idea that, in the UK, all the power stations would eventually
0:50:20 > 0:50:23have this? Are we thinking, a couple of decades down the road?
0:50:23 > 0:50:26I think it's probably going to be bigger than that.
0:50:26 > 0:50:29This is a technology that's going to be needed to be deployed
0:50:29 > 0:50:30across the world.
0:50:30 > 0:50:33It's a technology that can be applied in any country
0:50:33 > 0:50:35and across a number of industries.
0:50:35 > 0:50:38So, I think the vision of local is too small,
0:50:38 > 0:50:40I think we need a much bigger vision.
0:50:40 > 0:50:43You say CCS is an absolutely critical part
0:50:43 > 0:50:45of the low-carbon future?
0:50:45 > 0:50:48It's a critical part, it's all part of the mix.
0:50:48 > 0:50:52We're going to need almost twice the energy going forward by 2050
0:50:52 > 0:50:53that we're using today,
0:50:53 > 0:50:57and that means the mix has got to be as broad as possible,
0:50:57 > 0:51:01and yet the emissions, the CO2 emissions, need to come down.
0:51:01 > 0:51:05So, for the broad mix, CCS is a critical component.
0:51:07 > 0:51:13'CCS seems to offer us the chance to keep burning fossil fuels.
0:51:13 > 0:51:16'But there are questions over its viability.
0:51:16 > 0:51:20'Some fear that the stored carbon dioxide could leak.
0:51:20 > 0:51:23'Others point out that implementing this on an industrial scale
0:51:23 > 0:51:25'is possibly decades away.
0:51:28 > 0:51:30'CCS may be a part of our energy future,
0:51:30 > 0:51:33'but only alongside other energy sources.
0:51:36 > 0:51:39'And one of those will, undoubtedly, be hydrocarbons
0:51:39 > 0:51:43'because we rely on them for far more than energy.'
0:52:01 > 0:52:05Hydrocarbons create things we touch every single day.
0:52:10 > 0:52:14They've integrated their way into so many different facets of our lives.
0:52:18 > 0:52:20Modern life is utterly dependent upon them.
0:52:23 > 0:52:24'As one oilman put it,
0:52:24 > 0:52:27'"If oil didn't exist, we would have to invent it."'
0:52:37 > 0:52:41It seems to me we've reached a critical junction in our story,
0:52:41 > 0:52:43and we face a stark choice -
0:52:43 > 0:52:46do we continue to feed our addiction,
0:52:46 > 0:52:49suck Planet Oil dry,
0:52:49 > 0:52:51or do we go hell-for-leather for alternative energy sources,
0:52:51 > 0:52:53nuclear, renewables,
0:52:53 > 0:52:56and go from our fossil fuel past to a low-carbon future?
0:52:56 > 0:52:59In which case, how do we make that shift?
0:53:06 > 0:53:09'To make the switch to alternative energy sources will require
0:53:09 > 0:53:12'a serious investment and careful planning.
0:53:15 > 0:53:17'But according to Professor Mike Bowman,
0:53:17 > 0:53:21'no-one has a realistic plan to make this fundamental change.'
0:53:24 > 0:53:29We've become, as a globe, as a population, as a race,
0:53:29 > 0:53:34so kind of glib about hydrocarbons and taking it for granted,
0:53:34 > 0:53:36and actually what we need to do now
0:53:36 > 0:53:37is actually be very serious.
0:53:37 > 0:53:39We're at a really tough time,
0:53:39 > 0:53:41it's almost like a crossroads.
0:53:41 > 0:53:44And, actually, we need to be making sure
0:53:44 > 0:53:47that we're taking some of the profit from this oil and gas,
0:53:47 > 0:53:51and seriously reinvesting it in the future.
0:53:51 > 0:53:53So that's having a strategy,
0:53:53 > 0:53:56in the short term, realising that hydrocarbons are here,
0:53:56 > 0:53:58to shift across to the renewables
0:53:58 > 0:54:00in...what kind of time period are we talking about? Decades?
0:54:00 > 0:54:02I'm talking about 20, 25 years, I think.
0:54:02 > 0:54:05I think we've got to have a strategy now, and I don't see the strategy,
0:54:05 > 0:54:08I don't see it in the UK, and I don't see it globally.
0:54:08 > 0:54:13I think we've really got to have some energy strategies that have teeth,
0:54:13 > 0:54:14and that have real meaning,
0:54:14 > 0:54:19and that people understand what's going to happen as a result of it.
0:54:19 > 0:54:23But I think we do have an enormous responsibility for our children,
0:54:23 > 0:54:24and our children's children.
0:54:26 > 0:54:31There have been attempts to come up with a global strategy.
0:54:31 > 0:54:33Ever since the Rio summit in 1992,
0:54:33 > 0:54:36world leaders have gathered to discuss climate change
0:54:36 > 0:54:38and what to do about it.
0:54:38 > 0:54:40For over 20 years,
0:54:40 > 0:54:44we've had declarations, agreements and treaties.
0:54:45 > 0:54:46Despite this,
0:54:46 > 0:54:50there's still no legally binding international agreement
0:54:50 > 0:54:52to reduce carbon emissions.
0:54:54 > 0:54:58For some people, the time for talking is passed.
0:54:58 > 0:55:02In September 2014, 40,000 marchers took to the streets of London
0:55:02 > 0:55:04to protest against the lack of action.
0:55:06 > 0:55:08THEY CHANT
0:55:12 > 0:55:14What's brought you out on the street, then?
0:55:14 > 0:55:16To make people aware
0:55:16 > 0:55:19of the issues associated with burning fossil fuels.
0:55:19 > 0:55:21Clearly, that is climate change.
0:55:21 > 0:55:24It's really kicking in. We've known about it for 15 years.
0:55:24 > 0:55:28But the governments didn't listen to us 15 years ago.
0:55:28 > 0:55:30We need a solid international agreement to reduce emissions
0:55:30 > 0:55:32otherwise more people are going to die,
0:55:32 > 0:55:34and it's going to cause a lot of human suffering.
0:55:34 > 0:55:37Climate change is the most important problem we have at the moment.
0:55:37 > 0:55:40Everyone talks about the economy and this and that,
0:55:40 > 0:55:41but it's our planet, really.
0:55:44 > 0:55:47There's a really strong feeling in there
0:55:47 > 0:55:51that, in terms of political action, it's been a waste of time, really.
0:55:51 > 0:55:55Ever since those world leaders all got together in Rio in 1992,
0:55:55 > 0:55:56that nothing's really happened.
0:55:56 > 0:55:58And they've got a point.
0:55:58 > 0:56:01I mean, levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere are accelerating,
0:56:01 > 0:56:06they're not falling, and last year was another record high.
0:56:06 > 0:56:10What they're asking, what they're demanding seems quite simple -
0:56:10 > 0:56:14it's a cut in the level of carbon emissions.
0:56:18 > 0:56:22'On the same day, similar marches took place all over the world.
0:56:22 > 0:56:25'More than half a million people took to the streets
0:56:25 > 0:56:28'in over a dozen countries.
0:56:28 > 0:56:31'The organisers claim it was the biggest climate march in history.
0:56:34 > 0:56:39'The next climate summit is due to take place in Paris in 2015.
0:56:39 > 0:56:42'The protesters are demanding that world leaders
0:56:42 > 0:56:44'actually reach a deal this time -
0:56:44 > 0:56:48'a global agreement to slash carbon dioxide emissions
0:56:48 > 0:56:51'in the coming decades.
0:56:51 > 0:56:54'Collectively, these demonstrations point to one thing,
0:56:54 > 0:56:55'a demand for change.
0:56:55 > 0:56:59'They're expressing a fear that the lack of real progress
0:56:59 > 0:57:02'is taking us to the point of no return.'
0:57:03 > 0:57:08'If our politicians don't recognise the urgency of the situation,
0:57:08 > 0:57:12'and can't agree on an energy plan with meaning,
0:57:12 > 0:57:14'then it will all be too late.
0:57:20 > 0:57:24'Back in the fifties, Marion King Hubbert predicted
0:57:24 > 0:57:27'that we'd run out of oil in my lifetime.
0:57:27 > 0:57:30'But the likelihood is new technology will help us
0:57:30 > 0:57:35'to continue sucking Planet Oil dry, in order to feed our addiction.'
0:57:40 > 0:57:43You know, in the story of oil, the question that keeps on coming up is,
0:57:43 > 0:57:44"Are we running out?"
0:57:44 > 0:57:46But, actually, that's such a non-issue.
0:57:46 > 0:57:50The real issue is, how do we avoid burning the stuff we've already got,
0:57:50 > 0:57:53the stuff we know about?
0:57:53 > 0:57:57In fossil fuel terms, they seem like more of a liability.
0:57:58 > 0:58:02They're getting harder and more expensive to get out of the ground.
0:58:02 > 0:58:06They're pushing us and our climate into more unpredictable territory.
0:58:09 > 0:58:13And with the prospect of a renewable low-carbon future,
0:58:13 > 0:58:17it just seems that the writing's on the wall.
0:58:17 > 0:58:20You know, I may not outlive the age of Planet Oil,
0:58:20 > 0:58:23but I think my kids will.
0:58:23 > 0:58:27And, in that sense, it brings a much more interesting question of,
0:58:27 > 0:58:30"What will that planet look like?"