0:00:11 > 0:00:14We live in a world of relentless change.
0:00:17 > 0:00:21Huge migrations of people to new mega cities,
0:00:21 > 0:00:26filling soaring skyscrapers and vast slums.
0:00:27 > 0:00:31Ravenous appetites for fuel and food.
0:00:31 > 0:00:35Unpredictable climate change.
0:00:35 > 0:00:41And all this in a world where the population is still growing.
0:00:42 > 0:00:44Should we be worried?
0:00:44 > 0:00:46Should we be scared?
0:00:48 > 0:00:50How to make sense of it all?
0:00:58 > 0:01:02Seven billion people now live on this planet of ours.
0:01:02 > 0:01:04Isn't it beautiful?
0:01:04 > 0:01:09But when some people think about the world and its future, they panic!
0:01:09 > 0:01:12Others prefer not to think about it at all.
0:01:12 > 0:01:16But tonight, I'm going to show you how things really are.
0:01:16 > 0:01:19My name is Hans Rosling. I'm a statistician at... No, no, no!
0:01:19 > 0:01:20Don't switch off!
0:01:20 > 0:01:23- LAUGHTER - Because with the latest data from all countries,
0:01:23 > 0:01:25I'm going to show you the world in a new way.
0:01:25 > 0:01:28I'm going to tell you how world population is changing
0:01:28 > 0:01:33and what today's data tells us about how the future of the world will be.
0:01:33 > 0:01:38We undeniably face huge challenges,
0:01:38 > 0:01:42but the good news is that the future may not be quite as gloomy,
0:01:42 > 0:01:47and that mankind already is doing better than many of you think.
0:01:57 > 0:02:01Babies! Each one a blessing.
0:02:01 > 0:02:05But many people think population growth is out of control.
0:02:05 > 0:02:08Some even talk of a population bomb.
0:02:09 > 0:02:11- Are they right? - BABY WAILS
0:02:14 > 0:02:17So where are we with population today and how did we get here?
0:02:17 > 0:02:22I'm going to tell you a story about everyone who ever lived -
0:02:22 > 0:02:26well, at least during the last some thousand years. Here we go.
0:02:26 > 0:02:31I give you...two axes.
0:02:31 > 0:02:34This is time in years
0:02:34 > 0:02:39and this one here is world population in billions.
0:02:39 > 0:02:42In the year 10,000 BC,
0:02:42 > 0:02:45when the first people were becoming farmers,
0:02:45 > 0:02:47then the archaeologists estimate
0:02:47 > 0:02:52that the world population was only ten million.
0:02:52 > 0:02:55Imagine, ten million, that's like Sweden today,
0:02:55 > 0:02:58a world of only Swedes!
0:02:58 > 0:03:00LAUGHTER
0:03:00 > 0:03:03But then, as the millennia passed by,
0:03:03 > 0:03:05more farmers, food and people.
0:03:05 > 0:03:07And great empires could emerge,
0:03:07 > 0:03:10Egypt, China, India
0:03:10 > 0:03:12and, finally, Europe.
0:03:12 > 0:03:15And population continued to grow, but very slowly.
0:03:15 > 0:03:19And I stop here at the year 1800.
0:03:19 > 0:03:26Because 1800, that's when world population became one billion.
0:03:26 > 0:03:30Imagine, all that time the population growth
0:03:30 > 0:03:33was just with a tiny fraction of a percent
0:03:33 > 0:03:34through thousands of years.
0:03:34 > 0:03:38But here, 1800, with the Industrial Revolution,
0:03:38 > 0:03:41everything changed and population started to grow faster.
0:03:41 > 0:03:45In little more than 100 years it reached two billion.
0:03:45 > 0:03:50And then, you know, when I was at school, it was three billion.
0:03:50 > 0:03:54And many people said "the planet cannot support more people,"
0:03:54 > 0:03:56even experts said that.
0:03:56 > 0:04:00But what happens was this, you know, we became four billion,
0:04:00 > 0:04:04five billion, six billion, seven billion.
0:04:04 > 0:04:09Imagine, more than half of the world population
0:04:09 > 0:04:11has been added during my lifetime
0:04:11 > 0:04:14and the number is still rising.
0:04:16 > 0:04:19Most of the population growth in recent years
0:04:19 > 0:04:21has been in Asian countries,
0:04:21 > 0:04:24like here in Bangladesh, where the population
0:04:24 > 0:04:27has tripled during my lifetime
0:04:27 > 0:04:31from 50 to more than 150 million.
0:04:31 > 0:04:34HORN BLAST
0:04:34 > 0:04:39It's now one of the most densely populated countries in the world.
0:04:39 > 0:04:45Some 15 million already live in the very crowded capital Dhaka.
0:04:45 > 0:04:49People here, whether in the city or the countryside,
0:04:49 > 0:04:53are intensely concerned about the size of families.
0:04:53 > 0:04:54BIRDSONG
0:04:54 > 0:04:57But a new Bangladesh is emerging.
0:04:57 > 0:05:01Like the Khan family - mum Taslima,
0:05:01 > 0:05:04daughters Tanjina and little Sadia,
0:05:04 > 0:05:07and dad Hannan.
0:05:20 > 0:05:24Both Taslima and Hannan come from large families themselves,
0:05:24 > 0:05:27but they've decided to have just two children.
0:05:56 > 0:05:59Taslima and Hannan are part of a cultural shift
0:05:59 > 0:06:02away from big families.
0:06:02 > 0:06:06And for Taslima, it's also become a job.
0:06:06 > 0:06:09She works for the government Family Planning Service,
0:06:09 > 0:06:12which employs women like her in every village.
0:06:12 > 0:06:18She goes door to door to try to help others to have smaller families too.
0:06:37 > 0:06:40Taslima offers advice, moral support
0:06:40 > 0:06:43and, most importantly, a range of contraceptives.
0:06:43 > 0:06:45Condom.
0:07:23 > 0:07:26So how successful has Taslima and Bangladesh
0:07:26 > 0:07:29been in reducing fertility rate,
0:07:29 > 0:07:32that is number of babies born per woman?
0:07:32 > 0:07:35In Sweden we set up Gapminder Foundation
0:07:35 > 0:07:37to make the world's data available
0:07:37 > 0:07:40in a way that everyone can understand.
0:07:40 > 0:07:43So I can show you the situation in Bangladesh and what has happened.
0:07:43 > 0:07:47Here, a horizontal axis, babies per woman,
0:07:47 > 0:07:51all the way from 1-2 to 7-8.
0:07:51 > 0:07:53And here a vertical axis
0:07:53 > 0:07:56that is lifespan, life expectancy,
0:07:56 > 0:07:59how many years a newborn can expect to live,
0:07:59 > 0:08:02from 30 all the way up to 90.
0:08:02 > 0:08:06Now we start in 1972,
0:08:06 > 0:08:08a very important year for Bangladesh,
0:08:08 > 0:08:11the first full year of independence.
0:08:11 > 0:08:14That year Bangladesh was over there
0:08:14 > 0:08:17and they had on average seven babies per woman
0:08:17 > 0:08:21and lifespan was less than 50 years.
0:08:21 > 0:08:23So what has happened after independence?
0:08:23 > 0:08:26Has life become longer in Bangladesh?
0:08:26 > 0:08:29Have children become fewer? Here is the data.
0:08:29 > 0:08:30I start with Bangladesh.
0:08:30 > 0:08:34Indeed, life is getting longer and babies fewer.
0:08:34 > 0:08:35Six. Five.
0:08:35 > 0:08:37And life even longer. Four. Three.
0:08:37 > 0:08:39And they land now almost to two.
0:08:39 > 0:08:43It's 2.2 and the life span is 70.
0:08:43 > 0:08:45It's absolutely amazing!
0:08:45 > 0:08:49In 40 years, Bangladesh has gone
0:08:49 > 0:08:54from seven, six, five, four, three, two.
0:08:54 > 0:08:58It's a miracle that has happened in Bangladesh!
0:08:58 > 0:09:03But is it only in Bangladesh? Well, I'll show you the whole world.
0:09:03 > 0:09:08I will go back 50 years in time to 1963.
0:09:08 > 0:09:11Here are all the countries.
0:09:11 > 0:09:15These green ones is America, North and South.
0:09:15 > 0:09:19The yellow ones is Europe, East and West.
0:09:19 > 0:09:22And blue is Africa, north and south of the Sahara.
0:09:22 > 0:09:24And red is Asia.
0:09:24 > 0:09:27And we include Australia and New Zealand.
0:09:27 > 0:09:31The size of the bubble shows the size of the population.
0:09:31 > 0:09:33Look, the big ones over there
0:09:33 > 0:09:35are China and India
0:09:35 > 0:09:38and Bangladesh is just behind.
0:09:38 > 0:09:41In 1963, the average number of babies
0:09:41 > 0:09:44born per woman in the world was five.
0:09:44 > 0:09:47But it was a divided world, can you see that?
0:09:47 > 0:09:51These countries over here, the developed countries,
0:09:51 > 0:09:55they had small families and long lives.
0:09:55 > 0:09:58And then there were the developing countries over here,
0:09:58 > 0:10:01and they had large families and short lives.
0:10:01 > 0:10:03And very few were in between.
0:10:03 > 0:10:06But now we'll see what has happened.
0:10:06 > 0:10:09I start the world. Here we go!
0:10:09 > 0:10:12And you can see that China is getting the big bubble,
0:10:12 > 0:10:14it's getting better health.
0:10:14 > 0:10:17And then they start family planning, they move along to smaller families.
0:10:17 > 0:10:19And the big green... Look at Mexico!
0:10:19 > 0:10:20Mexico is coming there!
0:10:20 > 0:10:23And this is Brazil also. The green is Latin America.
0:10:23 > 0:10:25And here India is following! India is following!
0:10:25 > 0:10:28The big red bubbles are Asian countries going this way.
0:10:28 > 0:10:31Many Africans are still with many babies born per woman.
0:10:31 > 0:10:33And then Bangladesh over there
0:10:33 > 0:10:36overtakes India on its way to the small family.
0:10:36 > 0:10:38And now almost all go up to this bar.
0:10:38 > 0:10:40Even Africa now starts to move up. Oooh!
0:10:40 > 0:10:42That was the earthquake in Haiti.
0:10:42 > 0:10:46And now everyone ends up there. What a change we have!
0:10:48 > 0:10:53Today, you know, in the world the average is 2.5.
0:10:53 > 0:10:54Imagine!
0:10:54 > 0:10:58You know, it used to be, 50 years ago, five.
0:10:58 > 0:10:59And the world has changed.
0:10:59 > 0:11:05The average number of babies born per woman has gone from 5 to 2.5.
0:11:05 > 0:11:09And it's still decreasing. What a big change!
0:11:10 > 0:11:14People who think that Bangladesh and countries like that
0:11:14 > 0:11:17is some sort of epicentre of a population bomb,
0:11:17 > 0:11:19they couldn't be more wrong.
0:11:19 > 0:11:23To me, health workers like Mrs Taslima and their colleagues,
0:11:23 > 0:11:25who have taken their countries
0:11:25 > 0:11:29from this side all over in a few decades
0:11:29 > 0:11:33to much better health and small families,
0:11:33 > 0:11:35they are the heroes of our time!
0:11:35 > 0:11:38It's an amazing change that has happened!
0:11:38 > 0:11:41We no longer live in a divided world.
0:11:41 > 0:11:48But how much do people know about this amazing change?
0:11:48 > 0:11:51At Gapminder we not only show data,
0:11:51 > 0:11:56we also measure how much people know or don't know about the world.
0:11:56 > 0:12:00So we did a first survey in Sweden.
0:12:00 > 0:12:03- The results were depressing. - LAUGHTER
0:12:03 > 0:12:07So we did our second survey in Britain and we had high hopes,
0:12:07 > 0:12:10because the British have been all over the place, you know,
0:12:10 > 0:12:13so we thought we would get good results here.
0:12:13 > 0:12:15The first question we asked was -
0:12:18 > 0:12:20And we gave four alternatives -
0:12:25 > 0:12:28This is the result of the British survey.
0:12:34 > 0:12:39But you know the right answer, it's 2.5.
0:12:39 > 0:12:43Only 12% of the British got it right.
0:12:43 > 0:12:47So we thought that perhaps it was those with low education
0:12:47 > 0:12:49who dragged down the result.
0:12:49 > 0:12:53So we segmented those who had been to the fine British universities
0:12:53 > 0:12:55and had a university degree.
0:12:55 > 0:12:57And here they are.
0:12:57 > 0:12:59- This is the result. - LAUGHTER
0:13:03 > 0:13:06- If anything, worse! - LAUGHTER
0:13:06 > 0:13:08So now you may conclude
0:13:08 > 0:13:11that the British lack knowledge about the world.
0:13:11 > 0:13:12Uh-uh, uh-uh.
0:13:12 > 0:13:15What if I would have asked
0:13:15 > 0:13:17- this chap and his friends? - MONKEY CHITTERS
0:13:17 > 0:13:21I would have written the different answers on bananas
0:13:21 > 0:13:23and let them pick one banana each, you know.
0:13:23 > 0:13:25This result I would get.
0:13:26 > 0:13:29Of course, chimps know nothing about Bangladesh.
0:13:29 > 0:13:31LAUGHTER
0:13:35 > 0:13:36But by pure random,
0:13:36 > 0:13:39they will pick twice as many correct answers as the British.
0:13:39 > 0:13:41LAUGHTER
0:13:41 > 0:13:42And of the British,
0:13:42 > 0:13:47more than half of the British people think it's 4.5 or more.
0:13:49 > 0:13:54The problem here is not lack of knowledge, it's pre-conceived ideas.
0:13:54 > 0:13:58The British cannot even imagine, cannot even guess,
0:13:58 > 0:14:00that women in Bangladesh have 2.5.
0:14:00 > 0:14:03And you know it's really 2.2 already.
0:14:03 > 0:14:05This is what the Brits don't know,
0:14:05 > 0:14:08that Taslima and her family are the norm in Bangladesh today,
0:14:08 > 0:14:11the most common family size.
0:14:11 > 0:14:14And it's not only there, it's all over the world.
0:14:14 > 0:14:17In Brazil, two-child families.
0:14:17 > 0:14:20Vietnam, two-child families.
0:14:22 > 0:14:27And...even in India the most common family size is two children today.
0:14:27 > 0:14:30And also, if you go to the African continent,
0:14:30 > 0:14:32you go to the big cities, here Addis Ababa,
0:14:32 > 0:14:35you have less than two children per woman today in Addis Ababa.
0:14:35 > 0:14:40They can be Muslim, Buddhist, Hindu, Christian -
0:14:40 > 0:14:43there's not one religion, not one culture,
0:14:43 > 0:14:47not one continent where two-child families cannot happen.
0:14:47 > 0:14:51This change from big families down to two-child families
0:14:51 > 0:14:53is one of the most important things
0:14:53 > 0:14:57that has happened in the world during my lifetime.
0:14:57 > 0:14:59It's unprecedented in human history.
0:15:05 > 0:15:08Here we are back in Bangladesh.
0:15:08 > 0:15:13Let's find the reasons behind this historic and continuing shift
0:15:13 > 0:15:16from large to small families.
0:15:16 > 0:15:19Almost all girls in Muslim Bangladesh,
0:15:19 > 0:15:23like 15-year-old Tanjina, go to school today.
0:15:23 > 0:15:27The government now even pays families money
0:15:27 > 0:15:30to keep their daughters on at secondary level.
0:15:30 > 0:15:35At Tanjina's school boys are now outnumbered by girls.
0:15:46 > 0:15:49You could hardly miss the point of this lesson.
0:15:57 > 0:16:00Education is effective.
0:16:00 > 0:16:03And there are also new opportunities for Bangladeshi women.
0:16:03 > 0:16:06Despite continuing inequalities
0:16:06 > 0:16:10there are more jobs, and Tanjina is aiming high.
0:16:26 > 0:16:28More and more young women here
0:16:28 > 0:16:31are seeing how different things could be for them.
0:17:09 > 0:17:11It's wonderful to see Taslima
0:17:11 > 0:17:15so full of hope for a bright future for her two daughters.
0:17:15 > 0:17:21But one essential transformation underpins the change in Bangladesh.
0:17:21 > 0:17:24It's a dramatic improvement in child survival.
0:17:27 > 0:17:30MUSLIM CALL TO PRAYER
0:17:30 > 0:17:35It's Ramadan, the Muslim month of fasting and reflection.
0:17:35 > 0:17:37At this auspicious time,
0:17:37 > 0:17:42Hannan is helping his parents to tend the family graveyard.
0:17:46 > 0:17:51Three of Hannan's siblings died when they were very young.
0:17:51 > 0:17:54They're buried here.
0:18:08 > 0:18:12Back when Hannan's parents were a young couple,
0:18:12 > 0:18:14one in five children in Bangladesh
0:18:14 > 0:18:18died before they reached five years of age.
0:18:18 > 0:18:23All families lived with the constant fear of losing one or more children.
0:18:42 > 0:18:46In the last few decades, Bangladesh has made great progress
0:18:46 > 0:18:50in basic health, particularly in child survival.
0:18:50 > 0:18:53Vaccines, treatment of infections and better nutrition
0:18:53 > 0:18:57and hygiene have all saved the lives of millions of children.
0:18:57 > 0:19:02And as parents have come to see that all of their children are now likely
0:19:02 > 0:19:08to survive, the biggest obstacle to family planning has at last gone.
0:19:08 > 0:19:10Even in the slums of Dhaka,
0:19:10 > 0:19:13women now have, on average, just two children.
0:19:20 > 0:19:23Child survival drives everything.
0:19:23 > 0:19:25Let's go back into history.
0:19:25 > 0:19:30Why did the world population grow so slowly before 1800?
0:19:30 > 0:19:34Well, throughout history all historical records show us
0:19:34 > 0:19:40that, on average, two parents got more or less six children.
0:19:40 > 0:19:43But that looks as a very fast population growth.
0:19:43 > 0:19:48So why didn't it grow? Because one, two, three, four of the children
0:19:48 > 0:19:52died before growing up to become parents themselves.
0:19:52 > 0:19:58People in the past never lived in ecological balance with nature,
0:19:58 > 0:20:00they died in ecological balance with nature!
0:20:01 > 0:20:04It was utterly tragic.
0:20:06 > 0:20:09But with the Industrial Revolution, this changed.
0:20:09 > 0:20:12Better wages, more food, tapped water,
0:20:12 > 0:20:17better sanitation, soap, medical advances, you know.
0:20:17 > 0:20:20So why then from all these advances, why did population grow?
0:20:20 > 0:20:23Was it because they got more children? No.
0:20:23 > 0:20:271963, that year when I was at school,
0:20:27 > 0:20:29actually the number of children per woman
0:20:29 > 0:20:32had decreased a little in the world to five.
0:20:32 > 0:20:35And the reason for the fast population growth
0:20:35 > 0:20:38was the improved child survival.
0:20:38 > 0:20:41Four survived at that time.
0:20:41 > 0:20:45But still one out of five died, that was still terrible.
0:20:45 > 0:20:48So it's only in the recent decades
0:20:48 > 0:20:50that most of the countries
0:20:50 > 0:20:53have taken big leaps forward in child survival
0:20:53 > 0:20:58and in family planning, so that we are now approaching the new balance.
0:20:58 > 0:21:00And it's a nice balance.
0:21:00 > 0:21:04Two parents, on average, get two children that survive.
0:21:04 > 0:21:08We have families in a very happy balance.
0:21:08 > 0:21:12This is the most normal family situation in the world today.
0:21:12 > 0:21:15And what does this mean for the future here?
0:21:15 > 0:21:19I will show you the projection, the best projection into the future
0:21:19 > 0:21:22from the finest demographers we have
0:21:22 > 0:21:25at the Population Division of the United Nations.
0:21:25 > 0:21:29And it looks like this. It's going to continue first
0:21:29 > 0:21:33up to eight and then it goes up to nine and then it goes here.
0:21:33 > 0:21:35But, see, it's slowing down, it's slowing down!
0:21:35 > 0:21:39By the end of the century, it's becoming more flat there.
0:21:39 > 0:21:45And if I do a close-up on this, you can see that we are expecting
0:21:45 > 0:21:49a slowing down and the end of fast population growth.
0:21:51 > 0:21:53But, of course, this is a projection
0:21:53 > 0:21:55that has a certain degree of uncertainty.
0:21:55 > 0:21:58But we are sure that we are at the end
0:21:58 > 0:22:02of fast population growth within this century.
0:22:02 > 0:22:06It's all due to a remarkable effect of the falling fertility rate.
0:22:06 > 0:22:08Look here, if we go back into this.
0:22:08 > 0:22:12I'll show this by showing you the number of children in the world.
0:22:12 > 0:22:16The number of children from 0-15 years of age.
0:22:16 > 0:22:17Here they come.
0:22:17 > 0:22:21Look, the number of children there increased slowly,
0:22:21 > 0:22:23and then also it increased rapidly.
0:22:23 > 0:22:25So by the turn of the century here
0:22:25 > 0:22:28there were two billion children in the world.
0:22:28 > 0:22:31And to me that was an important year,
0:22:31 > 0:22:36because that was when Doris was born, that's my first grandchild.
0:22:36 > 0:22:41And she was born at a very special time for children in the world,
0:22:41 > 0:22:43because the specialists, the demographers,
0:22:43 > 0:22:46estimate that from this year
0:22:46 > 0:22:50the number of children in the world will continue like this.
0:22:50 > 0:22:53It will not increase any longer.
0:22:53 > 0:22:54By the end of the century,
0:22:54 > 0:22:58we will still have two billion children in the world.
0:22:58 > 0:23:00When Doris was born
0:23:00 > 0:23:06is when the world entered into the age of "peak child".
0:23:06 > 0:23:09The number of children are not increasing.
0:23:09 > 0:23:12Now...this will confuse you,
0:23:12 > 0:23:17because how can then the total population grow like this
0:23:17 > 0:23:19if the children doesn't increase?
0:23:19 > 0:23:22Where will all these adults come from?
0:23:22 > 0:23:26And to explain that I have to leave this fancy digital stuff
0:23:26 > 0:23:29and show you real powerful educational material
0:23:29 > 0:23:31we have developed.
0:23:31 > 0:23:33And it's here.
0:23:33 > 0:23:36I will show you the world population, ladies and gentlemen,
0:23:36 > 0:23:39in the form of foam blocks.
0:23:39 > 0:23:41LAUGHTER
0:23:41 > 0:23:44One block is one billion.
0:23:44 > 0:23:46One block is one billion.
0:23:46 > 0:23:50And that means that we have two billion children in the world.
0:23:50 > 0:23:55Then we have two billion between 15 and 30 years of age.
0:23:55 > 0:23:57These are rounded numbers.
0:23:57 > 0:24:00We have one billion 30-45.
0:24:00 > 0:24:04We have one billion 45-60.
0:24:04 > 0:24:05And then we have my block,
0:24:05 > 0:24:0760 years and older.
0:24:07 > 0:24:09We are here on top.
0:24:09 > 0:24:11This is the world population today.
0:24:11 > 0:24:16And you can see that there are three billions missing like here.
0:24:16 > 0:24:18Only a few of them are missing because they have died.
0:24:18 > 0:24:22Most of them are missing because they were never born.
0:24:22 > 0:24:25Because back then, you know, before 1980,
0:24:25 > 0:24:28there were much fewer children born in the world,
0:24:28 > 0:24:31because there were fewer women giving birth to children.
0:24:31 > 0:24:33So this is what we have today.
0:24:33 > 0:24:35Now what will happen in the future?
0:24:35 > 0:24:39Do you know what happens to old people like me?
0:24:39 > 0:24:41They die, yes.
0:24:41 > 0:24:43There is someone here who works in hospitals, yeah.
0:24:43 > 0:24:47- LAUGHTER - So they die.
0:24:47 > 0:24:52The rest, they grow 15 years older and have two billion children.
0:24:52 > 0:24:55These ones are now old, time to die.
0:24:55 > 0:24:58And then these ones grow 15 years older
0:24:58 > 0:25:00and they have two billion children.
0:25:00 > 0:25:03This one dies and the rest grow 15 years older
0:25:03 > 0:25:05and have two billion children.
0:25:05 > 0:25:08And without increasing the number of children,
0:25:08 > 0:25:11without increasing the length of life,
0:25:11 > 0:25:14we have three billion people more
0:25:14 > 0:25:17by this big inevitable fill-up of adults,
0:25:17 > 0:25:21which will happen just when the large young generations grow up.
0:25:21 > 0:25:23Now there is one more detail,
0:25:23 > 0:25:27which is good news for the older ones here like me,
0:25:27 > 0:25:31that it's estimated that the old people will live a little longer.
0:25:31 > 0:25:35So we have to add one billion more for the old here on top.
0:25:35 > 0:25:39And I'm desperately hoping that I will be part of that group,
0:25:39 > 0:25:42because then I can live long and read the annual statistics
0:25:42 > 0:25:45as they come reporting every year, you know.
0:25:45 > 0:25:48But when I talk to many fine environmental activists,
0:25:48 > 0:25:52who really have a good concern about the environment,
0:25:52 > 0:25:53they very often tell me,
0:25:53 > 0:25:56"We have to stop population growth at eight billion!"
0:25:57 > 0:25:59But when I then talk with them,
0:25:59 > 0:26:02first, they don't know that we have reached peak child,
0:26:02 > 0:26:04and then they are completely unaware
0:26:04 > 0:26:07that most of the remaining population growth
0:26:07 > 0:26:10is an inevitable fill-up of adults.
0:26:10 > 0:26:12So we will end up
0:26:12 > 0:26:15with more or less this amount of people.
0:26:15 > 0:26:19So we know how many billions there will be,
0:26:19 > 0:26:23but what about where they live... now and in the future?
0:26:27 > 0:26:29There you have the world
0:26:29 > 0:26:31and here are the seven billion.
0:26:32 > 0:26:34Now out of the seven billion,
0:26:34 > 0:26:36one live in the Americas,
0:26:36 > 0:26:39North and South together.
0:26:39 > 0:26:44One in Europe. One in Africa.
0:26:44 > 0:26:47And four in Asia.
0:26:47 > 0:26:50So this is now. But how to remember this?
0:26:50 > 0:26:52I have a very simple way of remembering this.
0:26:52 > 0:26:53I put up the numbers like this
0:26:53 > 0:26:57and then I say this is the PIN code of the world...1-1-1-4.
0:26:57 > 0:27:01Now, what will happen up to mid-century?
0:27:01 > 0:27:03That we know fairly well.
0:27:03 > 0:27:08Europe, no increase. In fact, the European population is decreasing.
0:27:08 > 0:27:10In America, a little more people,
0:27:10 > 0:27:12mainly retired people in Latin America,
0:27:12 > 0:27:16so it makes no difference, it's almost the same.
0:27:16 > 0:27:19In Asia we will have one billion more.
0:27:19 > 0:27:22And then the population growth in Asia is over.
0:27:22 > 0:27:25In Africa in the next 40 years,
0:27:25 > 0:27:28the population will double to two billion.
0:27:28 > 0:27:31Now to the end of the century.
0:27:31 > 0:27:33Well, we know quite well no more people in Europe,
0:27:33 > 0:27:35no more in America, no more in Asia,
0:27:35 > 0:27:39but Africa is set, as we have data today,
0:27:39 > 0:27:44for another doubling, so there will be four billion in Africa.
0:27:44 > 0:27:51In 2100...and probably the final PIN code will be 1-1-4-5.
0:27:52 > 0:27:56So in 2100, there will be quite a different world.
0:27:56 > 0:27:59The people who live in what I call the Old West,
0:27:59 > 0:28:01in West Europe and North America,
0:28:01 > 0:28:05will by then be less than 10% of the world population.
0:28:05 > 0:28:0980% of the world population will be living in Asia and Africa.
0:28:09 > 0:28:13But will there be resources enough to sustain them?
0:28:13 > 0:28:19Well, this will be a huge challenge, and nothing will come automatically.
0:28:19 > 0:28:23But my take is that it is possible
0:28:23 > 0:28:27for all these billions to live well together.
0:28:35 > 0:28:37Certainly it's easy to see the potential
0:28:37 > 0:28:42for a prosperous and peaceful Asia with five billion people.
0:28:42 > 0:28:46Japan, South Korea and others are already rich.
0:28:46 > 0:28:48Following them on the road to wealth
0:28:48 > 0:28:53are larger and larger parts of China, India, Indonesia,
0:28:53 > 0:28:55and many other Asian countries.
0:28:55 > 0:29:00Even in poorer Asian countries more and more are getting a decent life.
0:29:00 > 0:29:02HORNS BLARE
0:29:02 > 0:29:08But what about a future Africa of as much as four billion?
0:29:08 > 0:29:12Won't most of them be living in terrible poverty?
0:29:14 > 0:29:17I have seen extreme poverty in Africa.
0:29:17 > 0:29:2330 years ago, I spent the two most intense years of my life
0:29:23 > 0:29:25working as a medical doctor
0:29:25 > 0:29:27in one of the poorest countries,
0:29:27 > 0:29:31Mozambique on the east coast of Africa.
0:29:31 > 0:29:34Mozambique had just become independent
0:29:34 > 0:29:39after a long war against the colonial power Portugal.
0:29:39 > 0:29:43And my job was to be one of two doctors,
0:29:43 > 0:29:47we were born foreigners, for 300,000 people.
0:29:47 > 0:29:50And this was the hospital.
0:29:50 > 0:29:53My wife was also there working as a midwife.
0:29:53 > 0:29:56This is the entire staff of the hospital.
0:29:56 > 0:30:00Those with white coats had the chance during the colonial period
0:30:00 > 0:30:04to get a professional training of at least one year.
0:30:04 > 0:30:07The others, many of them couldn't even read and write,
0:30:07 > 0:30:12but they all worked with such dedication and motivation.
0:30:12 > 0:30:18But the patients came with the worst diseases of extreme poverty
0:30:18 > 0:30:21and our resources were often not enough.
0:30:21 > 0:30:25And especially my skills as a young doctor
0:30:25 > 0:30:28did not meet the needs of the patients.
0:30:28 > 0:30:31Mozambique is still today a very poor country,
0:30:31 > 0:30:36but things have improved immensely since I was there 30 years ago.
0:30:42 > 0:30:45For a start, there's now a brand-new hospital
0:30:45 > 0:30:48in the town where I worked 30 years ago.
0:30:50 > 0:30:52The new, much bigger hospital,
0:30:52 > 0:30:56has 15 doctors and 11 of them are Mozambicans.
0:30:56 > 0:30:59All the staff are now well trained.
0:31:01 > 0:31:06The director of the hospital is Dr Cashimo, the obstetrician.
0:31:15 > 0:31:18The transformation here is amazing to me.
0:31:30 > 0:31:34They routinely save women in childbirth with Caesareans,
0:31:34 > 0:31:37something that was impossible when I was there.
0:31:54 > 0:31:56Everything has improved so much.
0:31:57 > 0:32:02Those born in Mozambique today should have a much brighter future.
0:32:04 > 0:32:06BABY CRIES
0:32:06 > 0:32:11Not just because of better health, but a booming economy too,
0:32:11 > 0:32:13with busy ports and markets
0:32:13 > 0:32:17and new industries with lots of new jobs.
0:32:21 > 0:32:24I know you might be thinking that this good news
0:32:24 > 0:32:26is just about cities and towns.
0:32:26 > 0:32:29And it's true, the worst challenge
0:32:29 > 0:32:32is in the rural areas where most people live.
0:32:33 > 0:32:35But things are changing here too.
0:32:39 > 0:32:44Deep in rural northern Mozambique lies the district of Mogovolas.
0:32:46 > 0:32:50This is home for Olivia, Andre and their young family.
0:32:52 > 0:32:55Like so many other poor people in the world,
0:32:55 > 0:32:57Olivia and Andre are farmers,
0:32:57 > 0:33:00reliant on what they grow for what they eat.
0:33:06 > 0:33:10It's 4am and the day's tasks beckon.
0:33:12 > 0:33:18Andre heads straight to the fields. Olivia first goes to fetch water.
0:33:18 > 0:33:21Both have to walk miles to get anywhere.
0:33:39 > 0:33:44With no other means of transport, everything has to be carried.
0:33:49 > 0:33:52Olivia and Andre have eight children.
0:33:52 > 0:33:55Fertility rates are still high in much of rural Africa
0:33:55 > 0:34:00and it's the poorest families who have the most mouths to feed.
0:34:00 > 0:34:04Anything this family can spare, they'll sell.
0:34:23 > 0:34:28Yet, economic growth is slowly trickling into the countryside.
0:34:35 > 0:34:37Now Andre has set his sights
0:34:37 > 0:34:40on one thing he believes will change everything.
0:34:48 > 0:34:53Bicycles can make a huge difference to the lives of the rural poor.
0:34:53 > 0:34:58They save hours every day and get so much more done.
0:34:58 > 0:35:02With a bicycle, they can carry much heavier loads to the market
0:35:02 > 0:35:04and earn more money.
0:35:04 > 0:35:06They can travel to find work.
0:35:06 > 0:35:10And if they get sick, they can reach a health clinic in time.
0:35:23 > 0:35:27Andre and Olivia have been putting money away for two years.
0:35:27 > 0:35:30They haven't quite enough yet.
0:35:30 > 0:35:33Everything now depends on the sesame seeds
0:35:33 > 0:35:35which they are just harvesting.
0:35:35 > 0:35:39If they can get a good price, they might just make it.
0:35:42 > 0:35:46Andre and Olivia live in one of the poorest countries
0:35:46 > 0:35:48and they live in the rural area,
0:35:48 > 0:35:50which is the poorest part of that country.
0:35:50 > 0:35:54So how many people are there in the world living like them,
0:35:54 > 0:35:57and how many are there that are poorer?
0:35:57 > 0:35:59I'm going to show you this yardstick.
0:35:59 > 0:36:02Very simple - poor and rich.
0:36:02 > 0:36:05And here I have all the seven billions again.
0:36:05 > 0:36:08They are in a very simplified way
0:36:08 > 0:36:11lined up there from the poorest to the richest.
0:36:11 > 0:36:15Now, how much does the richest billion earn here,
0:36:15 > 0:36:17in dollars per day, right?
0:36:17 > 0:36:20Let's look here. Ooh!
0:36:20 > 0:36:23It's coming up! It's coming up! Ooh! Yoi-yoi! Yoi-yoi!
0:36:23 > 0:36:27- I can't even reach. 100 a day. - LAUGHTER
0:36:27 > 0:36:29Then, let's look at the middle billion,
0:36:29 > 0:36:32who is exactly in the middle, how much do they earn?
0:36:32 > 0:36:35It'll come. Yes, yes.
0:36:35 > 0:36:37Just 10.
0:36:37 > 0:36:40And then I go over here to the poorest billion.
0:36:40 > 0:36:41How much do they get?
0:36:41 > 0:36:45Well...just 1.
0:36:45 > 0:36:49This is the difference of the world today.
0:36:49 > 0:36:52And the economists draw a line,
0:36:52 > 0:36:56which they call the line for extreme poverty a little above 1,
0:36:56 > 0:36:59that's when you hardly can have enough food to feed the family.
0:36:59 > 0:37:02You cannot be sure that you have food all days.
0:37:02 > 0:37:05And one billion is clearly below that still.
0:37:05 > 0:37:09And the second billion is sort of divided by that line.
0:37:09 > 0:37:11And then the others are above it.
0:37:11 > 0:37:16Now, the poorest people, they can hardly afford to buy shoes.
0:37:16 > 0:37:18And when they get shoes
0:37:18 > 0:37:21the next thing they will save for is a bicycle.
0:37:21 > 0:37:23This is where Andre and Olivia is.
0:37:23 > 0:37:26And after a bicycle, you will go for the motorbike.
0:37:26 > 0:37:30And then after the motorbike, it's the car.
0:37:30 > 0:37:33And I remember when my family got its first car,
0:37:33 > 0:37:35it was a small, grey Volkswagen.
0:37:35 > 0:37:38The first thing we did was to go to Norway on holiday,
0:37:38 > 0:37:41because Norway is so much more beautiful than Sweden.
0:37:41 > 0:37:43- It was a fantastic trip. - LAUGHTER
0:37:43 > 0:37:48And now I'm in this group, I can go like the richest billion,
0:37:48 > 0:37:51we can go on holiday by airplanes.
0:37:51 > 0:37:52Of course, there are people
0:37:52 > 0:37:54who are much richer than the airplane people.
0:37:54 > 0:37:57Some are so rich, they are even contemplating
0:37:57 > 0:38:00that they should go as tourists out into space.
0:38:00 > 0:38:04And the difference in income from the airplane people
0:38:04 > 0:38:06to the very richest over there
0:38:06 > 0:38:11is almost as big as it is from the airplane people here, you know,
0:38:11 > 0:38:14all the way down to the poorest on that side.
0:38:14 > 0:38:20Now, the most important to remember from this yardstick is this.
0:38:20 > 0:38:23And to show you this, I need my stepladder.
0:38:23 > 0:38:29- Sometimes you need some old well-functioning technology also. - LAUGHTER
0:38:29 > 0:38:30Here.
0:38:35 > 0:38:39I can only reach up... Here they are, now I'm at the top.
0:38:39 > 0:38:44The problem for us living on 100 a day
0:38:44 > 0:38:49is that when we look down on those who have 10 or 1,
0:38:49 > 0:38:51they look equally poor.
0:38:51 > 0:38:53We can't see the difference.
0:38:53 > 0:38:56It looks as if everyone is living on the same amount of money.
0:38:56 > 0:38:59And they say, "Oh, they are all poor."
0:38:59 > 0:39:01No! I can assure you,
0:39:01 > 0:39:05because I've met and talked with people who live down here,
0:39:05 > 0:39:10and I can assure you that the people down here,
0:39:10 > 0:39:14they know very well how much better life would be
0:39:14 > 0:39:19if they would move from 1 to 10 - ten times as much income.
0:39:19 > 0:39:21This is a huge difference.
0:39:21 > 0:39:25And to understand this,
0:39:25 > 0:39:29this is what Olivia and Andre are trying to do now.
0:39:29 > 0:39:33Each little step they take along this line here,
0:39:33 > 0:39:36from the shoes towards the bicycle,
0:39:36 > 0:39:40small as it may seem from a far distance,
0:39:40 > 0:39:42makes a huge difference in their life.
0:39:42 > 0:39:46And if Andre and Olivia would get that bicycle,
0:39:46 > 0:39:49it would speed them along to a better life
0:39:49 > 0:39:52and better wealth up in this end.
0:39:53 > 0:39:57Today, Andre and Olivia are preparing to sell the sesame crop
0:39:57 > 0:39:59they've been growing for many months.
0:40:11 > 0:40:14But Andre and Olivia will have to be careful
0:40:14 > 0:40:18if they are to get paid the proper price.
0:40:41 > 0:40:44Andre is going to do the selling.
0:40:44 > 0:40:47And for the last time, he hopes,
0:40:47 > 0:40:50he has to get help to transport the crop to market.
0:40:54 > 0:40:57Andre now needs to keep his wits about him.
0:41:04 > 0:41:08The deal is done and Andre's happy with the price he's got.
0:41:15 > 0:41:16BELL RINGS
0:41:16 > 0:41:20It's the moment the family have worked so hard for.
0:41:39 > 0:41:43Andre's journey to market took all morning to walk.
0:41:43 > 0:41:47Now, in less than an hour, he can ride home.
0:41:50 > 0:41:52BELL RINGS
0:42:05 > 0:42:08ALL SING
0:42:08 > 0:42:11The bicycle is put to use at once.
0:42:11 > 0:42:14The children fetch water with it.
0:42:14 > 0:42:18Andre carries more crops to the market.
0:42:18 > 0:42:20And, just as importantly, Olivia and Andre
0:42:20 > 0:42:23can now easily reach their lessons for adults,
0:42:23 > 0:42:27so they can learn better maths and how to read and write.
0:42:36 > 0:42:38SHE LAUGHS
0:42:45 > 0:42:48It's so great to see Olivia and Andre
0:42:48 > 0:42:52pedalling their way out of extreme poverty.
0:42:52 > 0:42:55And they use the bicycle to go to literacy classes.
0:42:55 > 0:43:01Education is so important for the progress of people and nations.
0:43:01 > 0:43:03But how many know
0:43:03 > 0:43:06what has really happened with education in the world?
0:43:06 > 0:43:11Time for the great British ignorance survey again. Here we go.
0:43:11 > 0:43:13We asked...
0:43:15 > 0:43:18Can read and write?
0:43:18 > 0:43:19Can I ask the audience?
0:43:19 > 0:43:23How many guessed 20%? Hands up.
0:43:24 > 0:43:2640%?
0:43:26 > 0:43:2960%?
0:43:29 > 0:43:32And 80%? Ahh!
0:43:32 > 0:43:33- Ja! Ja! - LAUGHTER
0:43:33 > 0:43:35This is the result of the British sample.
0:43:42 > 0:43:46By now, you can use the result of the British survey
0:43:46 > 0:43:49to find out what the right answer is, isn't it?
0:43:49 > 0:43:53Of course, it's 80%. That is the right answer.
0:43:53 > 0:43:56At least you were clearly better than the British average.
0:43:56 > 0:44:01Yes, 80% of the population in the world can read and write today.
0:44:01 > 0:44:06Literacy is 80%. Actually, the last figure is a little higher.
0:44:06 > 0:44:10So if I would have compared that with the chimps again, you know,
0:44:10 > 0:44:13so once more you only get random results from the chimps.
0:44:13 > 0:44:17But you get three times as many correct answers
0:44:17 > 0:44:19than you get from the British.
0:44:19 > 0:44:21And now the university people.
0:44:23 > 0:44:26Perhaps they know this. Oh, even worse.
0:44:26 > 0:44:30What on earth are they teaching at British universities?!
0:44:30 > 0:44:34The common view about the world is outdated by several decades.
0:44:34 > 0:44:37The media have missed to communicate it.
0:44:37 > 0:44:41But perhaps this is because the world is changing so fast.
0:44:41 > 0:44:43Ladies and gentlemen,
0:44:43 > 0:44:47I'm going to give you my all-time favourite graph.
0:44:47 > 0:44:52I'm going to show you the history of 200 countries during 200 years
0:44:52 > 0:44:55in less than one minute.
0:44:55 > 0:44:58I have an axis...for income.
0:44:58 > 0:45:01I have an axis for life span.
0:45:01 > 0:45:05I start in 1800 and there are all the countries.
0:45:05 > 0:45:07And back in 1800,
0:45:07 > 0:45:10everyone was down in the poor and sick corner, can you see?
0:45:10 > 0:45:12Low life span, little money.
0:45:12 > 0:45:15And here comes the effect of the Industrial Revolution.
0:45:15 > 0:45:19Of course, the countries in West Europe are coming to better wealth,
0:45:19 > 0:45:21but they're not getting much healthier in the beginning.
0:45:21 > 0:45:25And those under colonial domination doesn't benefit anything in there,
0:45:25 > 0:45:27they remain there in the second poor corner.
0:45:27 > 0:45:30And now health is improving, health is slowly improving here,
0:45:30 > 0:45:33it's getting up here and we are coming into the new century.
0:45:33 > 0:45:35And the terrible First World War!
0:45:35 > 0:45:38And then the economic recession after that.
0:45:38 > 0:45:40And then the Second World War.
0:45:40 > 0:45:42Ooh! And now independence.
0:45:42 > 0:45:45And with independence health is improving
0:45:45 > 0:45:47faster than it ever did in other countries here.
0:45:47 > 0:45:51And now starts the fast economic catch-up of China
0:45:51 > 0:45:53and other Latin American countries.
0:45:53 > 0:45:57They come on here, you know. And India is following there.
0:45:57 > 0:45:59And the African countries are also following.
0:45:59 > 0:46:02It's an amazing change that has happened in the world.
0:46:02 > 0:46:06You know, in the front here, we have now the US and UK,
0:46:06 > 0:46:09but they're not moving so fast any longer.
0:46:09 > 0:46:11The fast movers are here in the middle.
0:46:11 > 0:46:14China is moving very fast to catch up.
0:46:14 > 0:46:17And Bangladesh... Look, Bangladesh is already here,
0:46:17 > 0:46:20now quite healthy and now starting with fast economic growth.
0:46:20 > 0:46:23And Mozambique? Yes, Mozambique is back there,
0:46:23 > 0:46:26but they are now moving fast in the right direction.
0:46:26 > 0:46:30But all this I show you is country averages.
0:46:30 > 0:46:33What about people?
0:46:33 > 0:46:35Have people also got a better life?
0:46:35 > 0:46:36I'm now going to show you
0:46:36 > 0:46:40something which makes me very excited as a statistician.
0:46:40 > 0:46:42I'm going to show you income distribution,
0:46:42 > 0:46:44the difference between people.
0:46:44 > 0:46:48And to do that, I take the bubbles back 50 years
0:46:48 > 0:46:51and then we are going to look only at money.
0:46:51 > 0:46:55And to do that we have to expand and adjust the axis,
0:46:55 > 0:46:58because the richest is so rich and the poorest is so poor,
0:46:58 > 0:47:01so this will be a bigger difference than between the countries.
0:47:01 > 0:47:04And what we do now is that we let the country fall down here,
0:47:04 > 0:47:06this is United States,
0:47:06 > 0:47:09and spread to show the range within the country.
0:47:09 > 0:47:12And I take down all the countries in the Americas.
0:47:12 > 0:47:16And now you can see from the richest person to the poorest person.
0:47:16 > 0:47:21And the height here shows you how many there are on each income level.
0:47:21 > 0:47:23And now let's take down Europe.
0:47:24 > 0:47:27And on top of that I'm going to put Africa.
0:47:29 > 0:47:35And finally, the region with most people, on top of everything, Asia.
0:47:36 > 0:47:42Now, in 1963, the world was constituted by two humps.
0:47:42 > 0:47:46First, the richest hump. It's like a camel, isn't it?
0:47:46 > 0:47:50The first hump here with the richest is mainly Europe and the Americas.
0:47:50 > 0:47:55And the poorest hump over here is mainly Asia and Africa.
0:47:55 > 0:47:58And the poverty line was there.
0:47:58 > 0:48:00Can you see how many people
0:48:00 > 0:48:04there were in extreme poverty 50 years ago?
0:48:04 > 0:48:06And most of them were in Asia.
0:48:06 > 0:48:08And people were saying, "Asia will never get out of poverty."
0:48:08 > 0:48:12Exactly as some people are still saying about Africa today.
0:48:12 > 0:48:15Now, what has happened? I start the world.
0:48:15 > 0:48:18And you can see that many people are born into poverty here,
0:48:18 > 0:48:21but Asia goes towards higher income
0:48:21 > 0:48:25and one billion goes out of extreme poverty this way.
0:48:25 > 0:48:28And the whole shape of the world changes
0:48:28 > 0:48:30and the camel is dead.
0:48:30 > 0:48:32It's reborn as a dromedary!
0:48:32 > 0:48:34LAUGHTER
0:48:34 > 0:48:39And what you can see here, you know, is the variation from the richest,
0:48:39 > 0:48:42that it's most people in the middle,
0:48:42 > 0:48:45and there's a much smaller proportion of the world
0:48:45 > 0:48:47now in extreme poverty.
0:48:47 > 0:48:49But, be careful, it's still a lot of people,
0:48:49 > 0:48:52more than one billion people in extreme poverty.
0:48:52 > 0:48:57Now the question is, can this move out of extreme poverty
0:48:57 > 0:49:00now continue for those in Africa
0:49:00 > 0:49:03and even for the new billions in Africa?
0:49:06 > 0:49:08I think it's possible, even probable,
0:49:08 > 0:49:12that most countries in Africa will rise out of poverty too.
0:49:12 > 0:49:18It will need wise action and huge investment, but it can happen.
0:49:20 > 0:49:25The many countries of Africa are not all advancing at the same pace.
0:49:25 > 0:49:30A few are moving very fast, others are stuck in conflict.
0:49:30 > 0:49:34But most, like Mozambique, are now making steady progress.
0:49:37 > 0:49:41And what about feeding all the new African people in the future?
0:49:41 > 0:49:46Yes, there are shortages today, but there is also much potential here.
0:49:48 > 0:49:50Agricultural yields in Africa
0:49:50 > 0:49:54are just a fraction of what they could be with better technology.
0:49:58 > 0:50:03And Africa's rivers are barely tapped for irrigation.
0:50:03 > 0:50:08One day, Africa could hum with combine harvesters and tractors
0:50:08 > 0:50:11and grow food for many more billions.
0:50:12 > 0:50:17And, please, don't imagine it's just me who thinks Africa can make it.
0:50:17 > 0:50:22The United Nations is about to set itself a new official goal -
0:50:22 > 0:50:26eliminating extreme poverty within 20 years.
0:50:26 > 0:50:29Everyone understands it's a huge challenge,
0:50:29 > 0:50:32but I seriously believe it's possible.
0:50:34 > 0:50:36Imagine if that would happen.
0:50:36 > 0:50:40Now, what we have seen so far is that the rich end, it moves.
0:50:40 > 0:50:44And the middle, it moves.
0:50:44 > 0:50:47But this poorest end is stuck.
0:50:47 > 0:50:52It's here in extreme poverty we find almost all the illiteracy.
0:50:52 > 0:50:55Here we find high child mortality
0:50:55 > 0:50:57and still many babies born per woman.
0:50:57 > 0:51:05It's like extreme poverty reproduces itself if you don't end it swiftly.
0:51:05 > 0:51:07But Andre and Olivia and people like them,
0:51:07 > 0:51:11they work so hard to get away from it.
0:51:11 > 0:51:15And if they only can get the right help from their government
0:51:15 > 0:51:20and from the world at large with things like school, health,
0:51:20 > 0:51:25vaccines, roads, electricity, contraceptives,
0:51:25 > 0:51:26then they will manage,
0:51:26 > 0:51:31but they will mainly manage by their own hard work.
0:51:31 > 0:51:37Here we go, you know, go on, follow Andre and Olivia across the line!
0:51:37 > 0:51:41It is possible within some decades? Yes!
0:51:41 > 0:51:47But getting out of poverty is just the beginning.
0:51:47 > 0:51:52People want to continue along this line to a good life.
0:51:52 > 0:51:54But what does a good life mean?
0:51:56 > 0:52:00For most people in the world, the good life they are striving for
0:52:00 > 0:52:04will mean more machines and much more use of energy.
0:52:04 > 0:52:05So there's a problem.
0:52:05 > 0:52:10Because all this adds to one of the great threats for the future -
0:52:10 > 0:52:12severe climate change.
0:52:13 > 0:52:1880% of the energy the world uses is still fossil fuels.
0:52:18 > 0:52:20And the science shows
0:52:20 > 0:52:23that the climate may change dramatically in the future
0:52:23 > 0:52:25because of the carbon dioxide emissions
0:52:25 > 0:52:29from continuing to burn all these fossil fuels.
0:52:32 > 0:52:37I'm not the best person to tell you how bad climate change will be,
0:52:37 > 0:52:40nor am I a specialist on how to prevent it.
0:52:40 > 0:52:44What I can do is to show you data to make you understand
0:52:44 > 0:52:48who is the one that emits the carbon dioxide.
0:52:48 > 0:52:50I will show this.
0:52:50 > 0:52:52You remember the yardstick
0:52:52 > 0:52:55from the poorest billion to the richest billion,
0:52:55 > 0:52:57from the one who hardly can afford shoes
0:52:57 > 0:53:00to the one who flies with airplanes.
0:53:00 > 0:53:06Now, this shows the total amount of fossil fuel
0:53:06 > 0:53:08used in the world during one year.
0:53:08 > 0:53:11Coal, oil and natural gas.
0:53:11 > 0:53:15And it represents more or less the total emission of carbon dioxide.
0:53:15 > 0:53:18Now, how much of that is used by the richest billion?
0:53:18 > 0:53:20HE GASPS
0:53:20 > 0:53:22Half of it!
0:53:22 > 0:53:23Now the second richest billion?
0:53:25 > 0:53:28Half of what's left.
0:53:28 > 0:53:31And you understand what the third use...half of what's left.
0:53:31 > 0:53:34And the others use hardly anything.
0:53:34 > 0:53:37This is rounded numbers, but it clearly shows, you know,
0:53:37 > 0:53:40that almost all the fossil fuel
0:53:40 > 0:53:44is used here by the one, two, three richest billions,
0:53:44 > 0:53:46more than 85% they use.
0:53:46 > 0:53:51Now, the richest billion here at least have stopped increasing,
0:53:51 > 0:53:53but we are yet to see whether they will decrease.
0:53:53 > 0:53:58And in the coming decades, it's the economic growth of these two
0:53:58 > 0:54:01that will increase the fossil fuel used
0:54:01 > 0:54:03and the carbon dioxide emissions.
0:54:03 > 0:54:07Even if these ones over here come out of extreme poverty
0:54:07 > 0:54:09and get richer all the way to the motorbike,
0:54:09 > 0:54:13that doesn't contribute much to the emission of carbon dioxide.
0:54:13 > 0:54:18And regarding population growth, most of the additional billions
0:54:18 > 0:54:21in the next 40 years will be in this group here.
0:54:21 > 0:54:24But still, if you ask people in the richest end
0:54:24 > 0:54:26they seem to get everything wrong.
0:54:26 > 0:54:29They look down on the world from their very high emissions
0:54:29 > 0:54:32and then they say, "Oh, those over there!"
0:54:32 > 0:54:36"You cannot live like us, you will destroy the planet!!"
0:54:36 > 0:54:41You see, I find the argument from the people here catching up
0:54:41 > 0:54:44to be much more correct and logic.
0:54:44 > 0:54:49They say, "Huh! Who are you to tell us that we can't live like you?!
0:54:49 > 0:54:54"You'd better change first if you want us to do it differently."
0:54:54 > 0:54:56CHATTER
0:54:56 > 0:54:59There are many essentials to having a good life
0:54:59 > 0:55:02that billions in the world do not yet have.
0:55:02 > 0:55:04Andre's village and house
0:55:04 > 0:55:08and so many like them don't even have electricity.
0:55:09 > 0:55:12Mozambique has huge coal reserves,
0:55:12 > 0:55:15and if it and the other poorest countries
0:55:15 > 0:55:17build affordable new power stations
0:55:17 > 0:55:20burning coal for electricity and industry,
0:55:20 > 0:55:24I don't think anyone who emits more carbon should interfere.
0:55:25 > 0:55:29Now, what I'm going to do is ask you two questions
0:55:29 > 0:55:32that I often ask my Swedish students.
0:55:32 > 0:55:34The first one is this.
0:55:34 > 0:55:38How many of you have not travelled by an airplane this year?
0:55:40 > 0:55:44Ah-ha. Quite a few can do without flying.
0:55:44 > 0:55:46So the next question is, how many of you
0:55:46 > 0:55:49have stayed away from washing machines
0:55:49 > 0:55:52and you have hand-washed all bed sheets,
0:55:52 > 0:55:55clothes and laundry during the last year?
0:55:55 > 0:55:58- LAUGHTER - I thought so, no-one.
0:55:58 > 0:56:01Everyone who can afford to use a washing machine,
0:56:01 > 0:56:05even the hard core in the environmental movement.
0:56:05 > 0:56:09And I still remember the day when my family got the washing machine,
0:56:09 > 0:56:13it was the 1st of November, 1952.
0:56:13 > 0:56:17Grandma was invited to be the first to load the machine.
0:56:17 > 0:56:21She had hand-washed her entire life for a family of nine.
0:56:21 > 0:56:25And when she loaded the machine, she sat down on a footstool
0:56:25 > 0:56:28and she watched the entire programme
0:56:28 > 0:56:30- during one hour. - LAUGHTER
0:56:30 > 0:56:32She was absolutely mesmerised.
0:56:32 > 0:56:38For my mother it also meant a lot of more free time to do other things.
0:56:38 > 0:56:42She could read books for me, I think that's what made me a professor.
0:56:42 > 0:56:46No wonder we said, "Thank you, steel mill!
0:56:46 > 0:56:49"Thank you, washing-powder factory!
0:56:49 > 0:56:51Thank you, electrical power station!"
0:56:51 > 0:56:53LAUGHTER
0:56:53 > 0:56:59Now...when thinking about where all this leaves us,
0:56:59 > 0:57:03I have just one little humble advice for you -
0:57:03 > 0:57:06beside everything else, look at the data.
0:57:06 > 0:57:09Look at the facts about the world.
0:57:09 > 0:57:13And you will see where we are today and how we can move forward
0:57:13 > 0:57:16with all these billions on our wonderful planet.
0:57:18 > 0:57:22The challenges of extreme poverty have been greatly reduced
0:57:22 > 0:57:25and it's for the first time in history
0:57:25 > 0:57:27within our power to end it for good.
0:57:28 > 0:57:33The challenge of population growth is, in fact, already being solved -
0:57:33 > 0:57:36the number of children has stopped growing.
0:57:37 > 0:57:40And for the challenge of climate change,
0:57:40 > 0:57:43we can still avoid the worst.
0:57:43 > 0:57:47But that requires that the richest,
0:57:47 > 0:57:50as soon as possible,
0:57:50 > 0:57:55find a way to set their use of resources and energy
0:57:55 > 0:57:57at a level that, step by step,
0:57:57 > 0:58:00can be shared by 10 billion or 11 billion
0:58:00 > 0:58:03by the end of this century.
0:58:04 > 0:58:07I've never called myself an optimist,
0:58:07 > 0:58:09but I do say I'm a possibilist.
0:58:09 > 0:58:14And I also say...the world is much better than many of you think.
0:58:14 > 0:58:17- Thank you very much. - APPLAUSE
0:58:23 > 0:58:26To test your own assumptions about the world
0:58:26 > 0:58:29and to explore the issues behind the numbers, go to...
0:58:33 > 0:58:36..where you will find links to the Open University's
0:58:36 > 0:58:38free learning website - Open Learn.
0:58:38 > 0:58:41You'll also find links to Gapminder
0:58:41 > 0:58:44where you can explore all the data and its sources.
0:58:44 > 0:58:47Subtitles by Red Bee Media Ltd