0:00:02 > 0:00:05This programme contains some strong language
0:00:05 > 0:00:08and scenes which some viewers may find upsetting from the start.
0:00:08 > 0:00:11The people of East Berlin broke through the walls of their prison...
0:00:11 > 0:00:13For years, the most potent symbol of the division of Europe.
0:00:13 > 0:00:17..March 12th, 1999, as the day the people of Hungary, the Czech Republic and Poland...
0:00:17 > 0:00:19- GEORGE W BUSH:- Bulgaria, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania,
0:00:19 > 0:00:21Romania, Slovakia and Slovenia,
0:00:21 > 0:00:23we welcome them into the ranks
0:00:23 > 0:00:26of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.
0:00:28 > 0:00:32The Russian military machine pouring across Russia's southern border
0:00:32 > 0:00:36into Georgia's rebellious enclave of South Ossetia.
0:00:42 > 0:00:45Ukrainian government forces say many Russian troops
0:00:45 > 0:00:47have been deployed in the east of the country,
0:00:47 > 0:00:50allowing separatists to make further advances.
0:00:50 > 0:00:53Ukraine is bleeding right now, Ukraine is weeping,
0:00:53 > 0:00:57and Europe is completely oblivious to this tragedy.
0:00:57 > 0:01:00Vladimir Putin completed his lightning
0:01:00 > 0:01:04and largely bloodless annexation with the stroke of a pen.
0:01:06 > 0:01:11I think that it's a very straightforward political comment,
0:01:11 > 0:01:16that basically sees Russia as a coming adversary of Nato,
0:01:16 > 0:01:19or an adversary that has returned from the cold.
0:01:30 > 0:01:32GUNFIRE
0:01:41 > 0:01:45- BARACK OBAMA:- As Nato allies, we have Article 5 duties
0:01:45 > 0:01:47to our collective defence.
0:01:53 > 0:01:56..in a newspaper interview that Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia
0:01:56 > 0:02:01are at risk, and Nato must be ready to repel Russian aggression.
0:02:03 > 0:02:05- OBAMA:- I've come here first and foremost to reaffirm
0:02:05 > 0:02:09the commitment of the United States to the security of Estonia.
0:02:09 > 0:02:12That is a commitment that is unbreakable.
0:02:12 > 0:02:14It is unwavering.
0:02:14 > 0:02:16It is eternal.
0:02:16 > 0:02:18Estonia will never stand alone.
0:03:12 > 0:03:14Good morning, everybody.
0:03:14 > 0:03:16Good morning, Chairman.
0:03:16 > 0:03:19So it's Estonia, as you may imagine.
0:03:21 > 0:03:23This is where I think we are this morning.
0:03:23 > 0:03:26The situation in the Baltic States has deteriorated.
0:03:31 > 0:03:34There has been heavy rioting in the Estonian capital Tallinn overnight,
0:03:34 > 0:03:38after scuffles broke out at the site of the former Soviet war memorial.
0:03:40 > 0:03:42They say it was a peaceful act of remembrance
0:03:42 > 0:03:45of Russians who died fighting the Nazis.
0:03:45 > 0:03:48Eye witnesses describe them as being attacked
0:03:48 > 0:03:50by masked men with Estonian flags.
0:03:53 > 0:03:57Six of the man charged with inciting violence are Russian citizens.
0:03:59 > 0:04:03Russians make up almost a quarter of the population of Estonia,
0:04:03 > 0:04:06and many of them have rallied round to condemn
0:04:06 > 0:04:11what they see as discrimination and brutality by the Estonian police.
0:04:13 > 0:04:16The Estonian interior minister today issued a statement
0:04:16 > 0:04:21openly accusing the Kremlin of orchestrating this violence.
0:04:21 > 0:04:24President Putin has condemned Estonia's treatment
0:04:24 > 0:04:27of ethnic Russians as disgraceful and has demanded...
0:04:27 > 0:04:30..nervousness in Nato that Putin could look to exploit
0:04:30 > 0:04:34the ethnic Russian population to stir up more violence.
0:04:36 > 0:04:38IN RUSSIAN:
0:04:58 > 0:05:00CHEERING
0:05:00 > 0:05:03Protests about the six Russian men arrested in Tallinn
0:05:03 > 0:05:05have now spread to the neighbouring country of Latvia.
0:05:05 > 0:05:08The province has a large population of ethnic Russians,
0:05:08 > 0:05:11and is one of the poorest areas of the European Union.
0:05:13 > 0:05:17If you come from Latgale or if you are Russian, you are a nobody.
0:05:17 > 0:05:19You are a second class citizen, you know?
0:05:19 > 0:05:23I've lived here for my whole life, but I don't have a right to vote.
0:05:23 > 0:05:26I don't have a passport. We have to change that.
0:05:26 > 0:05:28SHOUTING
0:06:02 > 0:06:05THEY CHANT: Ro-ssi-ya! Ro-ssi-ya! Ro-ssi-ya!
0:06:17 > 0:06:20The city's mayor Dimitri Vorslav has appealed for calm
0:06:20 > 0:06:23and promised he will listen to calls for a referendum...
0:06:29 > 0:06:30IN RUSSIAN:
0:06:34 > 0:06:36CHEERING
0:06:42 > 0:06:46CHEERING
0:06:47 > 0:06:49CHANTING:
0:06:57 > 0:07:02Such a referendum would be illegal and illegitimate.
0:07:02 > 0:07:07We believe Mr Vorslav is in the pay of the Kremlin.
0:07:07 > 0:07:10We will not accept interference in our state like this,
0:07:10 > 0:07:14and will take necessary steps to restore law and order in Daugavpils.
0:07:19 > 0:07:23I've just heard that we're going to have our Kremlin representative
0:07:23 > 0:07:28to Nato and Brussels coming over on the video conference.
0:07:28 > 0:07:29David.
0:07:29 > 0:07:32'However you read it, it's clear that this situation
0:07:32 > 0:07:34'is more serious than recent events in Estonia.'
0:07:34 > 0:07:37What evidence have they brought to the council,
0:07:37 > 0:07:38informally or formally, on this?
0:07:38 > 0:07:41'Well, they're talking a lot about what's going on at the border.
0:07:41 > 0:07:44'They're saying now the militia has control of a sizeable stretch of it
0:07:44 > 0:07:48'and that there are men and weapons pouring in unchecked from Russia.'
0:07:48 > 0:07:50Have you been able to take any soundings
0:07:50 > 0:07:52of other Nato representatives?
0:07:52 > 0:07:55'Yes, I think the Eastern states would be supportive if there was
0:07:55 > 0:07:58'an indication of Article 5, I'm not sure about the Germans.
0:07:58 > 0:08:00'I think if they were to push back,
0:08:00 > 0:08:03'then a number of other countries would tuck in behind, Spain, Italy.
0:08:03 > 0:08:06'I just can't read the French position at the moment.'
0:08:06 > 0:08:07OK, David, thanks very much.
0:08:07 > 0:08:10We will no doubt be calling on your wisdom and information...
0:08:10 > 0:08:13- 'We'll talk again. Thank you.' - ..in due course. Thank you.
0:08:13 > 0:08:18The big question is, is this an Article 5 situation,
0:08:18 > 0:08:21and what should we do about it? General?
0:08:21 > 0:08:25Article 5 is about responding to an armed attack.
0:08:28 > 0:08:32By the sounds of things, this is very firmly and armed attack.
0:08:32 > 0:08:34This is going to be, as we saw with Crimea,
0:08:34 > 0:08:37undermining the integrity of the state from within,
0:08:37 > 0:08:40manipulation of minorities, propaganda,
0:08:40 > 0:08:43potential use of special forces, border incursions,
0:08:43 > 0:08:46so I think what Nato would be wanting to do here
0:08:46 > 0:08:48is to get certainty, clarity of the situation.
0:08:48 > 0:08:52So surveillance, reinforce the Baltic air policing commitment,
0:08:52 > 0:08:54with additional aircraft.
0:08:54 > 0:08:57I think Nato would almost certainly want to put a maritime presence
0:08:57 > 0:08:59into the Baltic, and I think, also,
0:08:59 > 0:09:02Nato would be looking to start to move elements
0:09:02 > 0:09:05of a Very High Readiness Joint Task Force into Latvia.
0:09:05 > 0:09:07Kishwer?
0:09:07 > 0:09:10I think any assistance we can give them in terms of intel,
0:09:10 > 0:09:13but in terms of moving troops into the country,
0:09:13 > 0:09:16the Russians would interpret that as escalatory,
0:09:16 > 0:09:18but I also think it's extremely dangerous.
0:09:21 > 0:09:23Miscalculation can happen.
0:09:23 > 0:09:26The Russians might misunderstand that you're just moving them in
0:09:26 > 0:09:29as a show of solidarity. They may not see it that way.
0:09:29 > 0:09:30Let me press you on this, Kishwer.
0:09:30 > 0:09:37We cannot be, surely, too sensitive about Putin's sensitivities.
0:09:37 > 0:09:42So we're going to sleepwalk into, potentially, a war with Russia
0:09:42 > 0:09:45because we mustn't be too sensitive about their capabilities?
0:09:45 > 0:09:48- I'm wide awake, I don't know about you.- That's extraordinary.
0:09:48 > 0:09:50- I don't think this is sleepwalking. - I think the first thing is to move
0:09:50 > 0:09:53some troops into the country, not necessarily engage.
0:09:55 > 0:09:58But I think have a presence of a kind that
0:09:58 > 0:09:59acts as a warning to the Russians.
0:09:59 > 0:10:02This is a test of solidarity of the alliance.
0:10:02 > 0:10:04We have seen exactly what he did in the Ukraine
0:10:04 > 0:10:07in his hybrid form of warfare.
0:10:09 > 0:10:13We have warned him quite openly not to do that with the Baltic states,
0:10:13 > 0:10:16and I believe we need to have some form of ground forces,
0:10:16 > 0:10:18Nato ground forces,
0:10:18 > 0:10:21not to do that straightaway I think would be a terrible mistake.
0:10:21 > 0:10:23Chairman, if I may, cos I think we're getting way,
0:10:23 > 0:10:25way ahead of ourselves here.
0:10:25 > 0:10:29Just reflect a moment on the position you put Putin in
0:10:29 > 0:10:31if you start upping the military ante.
0:10:34 > 0:10:37The one thing that keeps you in power in Russia
0:10:37 > 0:10:39is a reputation for strength.
0:10:39 > 0:10:44If he finds himself confronted by a Nato challenge of that sort
0:10:44 > 0:10:49and backs down, he then loses domestically, politically.
0:10:49 > 0:10:52So warn them, signal all sorts of things,
0:10:52 > 0:10:55but moving troops seems to me to be a step too far.
0:10:55 > 0:10:57We are not starting from cold.
0:10:57 > 0:10:59We'll already have deployed troops there on exercise
0:10:59 > 0:11:02to warn the Russians post-Ukraine, they've come back out again.
0:11:02 > 0:11:04If it was starting from cold, I agree...
0:11:04 > 0:11:06This isn't Crimea, this is not Ukraine.
0:11:06 > 0:11:09I would agree entirely if we were starting from cold, but we're not.
0:11:09 > 0:11:12This is not Ukraine. It's a Nato country - Putin knows that.
0:11:12 > 0:11:16I think it is not a good idea to start deploying troops
0:11:16 > 0:11:18as though this is going to get worse.
0:11:21 > 0:11:28It's necessary to do whatever we can to deescalate this as a row.
0:11:28 > 0:11:31I think that a strong statement is necessary.
0:11:31 > 0:11:34At this stage in the crisis, the Russians have not admitted
0:11:34 > 0:11:38that they are doing anything or are directly involved.
0:11:39 > 0:11:41I think that's potentially useful for us.
0:11:41 > 0:11:44As soon as we turn this into a direct confrontation
0:11:44 > 0:11:47between Nato and Russia, we're on a very slippery slope.
0:11:47 > 0:11:48SHOUTING
0:11:57 > 0:12:00There were extraordinary scenes here earlier as the mayor,
0:12:00 > 0:12:03having declared his intent to hold a referendum,
0:12:03 > 0:12:06was in effect barred from his own city hall.
0:12:06 > 0:12:08The riot police were then overcome...
0:12:12 > 0:12:14Riga says a warrant for Mr Vorslav's arrest
0:12:14 > 0:12:16was issued on Sunday following the announcement
0:12:16 > 0:12:20that they would hold a referendum on greater autonomy...
0:12:33 > 0:12:35GUNSHOT
0:12:43 > 0:12:44GUNFIRE
0:12:51 > 0:12:54GUNFIRE
0:13:06 > 0:13:09Pro-Russian groups have consolidated their control
0:13:09 > 0:13:10of government buildings
0:13:10 > 0:13:13in a number of towns and cities in Eastern Latvia.
0:13:19 > 0:13:22A Latvian policeman has been killed and several others injured
0:13:22 > 0:13:24in violence around Daugavpils' town hall.
0:13:24 > 0:13:27The Latvian army has now been sent to restore order...
0:13:27 > 0:13:30Riga says the separatists are in control of some 20km
0:13:30 > 0:13:33of the border with Russia.
0:13:33 > 0:13:34Speaking to journalists earlier today,
0:13:34 > 0:13:38Latvia's Interior Minister Erik Jurdz left no doubt
0:13:38 > 0:13:42as to who they believe is arming and aiding the separatists.
0:13:42 > 0:13:46Our intelligence services have detected large numbers of Russians
0:13:46 > 0:13:50crossing the border illegally into Latvia with armaments.
0:13:54 > 0:13:58The evidence for Russian involvement in this is minimal at the moment.
0:13:58 > 0:13:59We have Latvian intelligence,
0:13:59 > 0:14:02who are neither very competent nor very impartial,
0:14:02 > 0:14:05telling us that there's infiltration taking place across the border.
0:14:05 > 0:14:08The only thing we know is happening
0:14:08 > 0:14:10is a major breakdown of civil order in Latvia,
0:14:10 > 0:14:14and to start sending off troops and all of that in response to that
0:14:14 > 0:14:16is massively disproportionate.
0:14:16 > 0:14:22If one looks at the continuum from Ukraine, Estonia, now Latvia -
0:14:22 > 0:14:25it's reminiscent, isn't it, slightly of the late '30s?
0:14:25 > 0:14:28People like this, you have to be quick and confront them quickly,
0:14:28 > 0:14:30and I believe there is a case for that.
0:14:30 > 0:14:33Let's have an attack on Russia
0:14:33 > 0:14:40which is not attributable to us, which would be a cyber attack.
0:14:40 > 0:14:46This would be my method of sending a message to Russia
0:14:46 > 0:14:50which would be seriously financially damaging, for example.
0:14:50 > 0:14:52GCHQ can do completely unattributable attacks
0:14:52 > 0:14:54to take things down,
0:14:54 > 0:14:56so, I mean, there are options that one can play with there.
0:14:56 > 0:14:59We've spent the last 50 years telling Russia
0:14:59 > 0:15:00we're a defensive alliance,
0:15:00 > 0:15:03so now we're going to launch a massive attack on them.
0:15:03 > 0:15:05Nobody's talked about attacking Russia,
0:15:05 > 0:15:08we're talking about putting forces into Latvia...
0:15:08 > 0:15:09A cyber attack, a cyber attack.
0:15:09 > 0:15:12OK, I'm expecting the National Security Advisor
0:15:12 > 0:15:15to come through to us, Laurel Feinstein.
0:15:15 > 0:15:18Laurel, what's going on at your end on this?
0:15:18 > 0:15:23'The President's pushing to deploy the Very High Readiness Task Force.
0:15:23 > 0:15:26'He feels that even though there's not a lot of evidence
0:15:26 > 0:15:28'of hardware going in,
0:15:28 > 0:15:32'we need to be there to dissuade the Russians,
0:15:32 > 0:15:35'we need to reinforce the borders, we need to contain this.'
0:15:35 > 0:15:37How near to hot war does this take us?
0:15:37 > 0:15:41'At the moment, we're talking about giving weapons and support
0:15:41 > 0:15:43'to the Latvians. Nato troops would be there
0:15:43 > 0:15:48'in a purely defensive role, excluding the Latvians of course.'
0:15:48 > 0:15:50OK, that's very helpful.
0:15:50 > 0:15:53I guess we're going to have a few more conversations like this.
0:15:53 > 0:15:57I would worry about the implications of encouraging Latvia
0:15:57 > 0:16:00to invoke Article 5 and then nothing following from that.
0:16:00 > 0:16:02I wonder what the Russians would read into that.
0:16:02 > 0:16:04I think they're just as likely to read into that
0:16:04 > 0:16:06- that Nato is divided and can't react.- Exactly.
0:16:06 > 0:16:09The foundation of Nato, Article 5, that strength of collective defence
0:16:09 > 0:16:13is something that is going to allow Nato
0:16:13 > 0:16:15to hold up that strong stop sign
0:16:15 > 0:16:17and that is the way to prevent war rather than weakness,
0:16:17 > 0:16:20which is the way to almost certainly stumble into war.
0:16:20 > 0:16:24Right. I don't think I can honestly say there is a consensus view
0:16:24 > 0:16:26on all these points around this table.
0:16:26 > 0:16:28We're going to have to have a vote.
0:16:28 > 0:16:33It is on whether or not we would support the American position
0:16:33 > 0:16:37to deploy the joint task force in a defensive role in Latvia.
0:16:39 > 0:16:41So let's go clockwise.
0:16:41 > 0:16:44You've got four on that side of the table. This side of the table?
0:16:44 > 0:16:47Provided it is then put to parliament.
0:16:47 > 0:16:51Five who are in favour of the proposition
0:16:51 > 0:16:54and one, two, three against.
0:16:54 > 0:16:56I'm not sure what you're going to say.
0:16:56 > 0:16:59No, I'm against here and now.
0:16:59 > 0:17:02The transmission of our decision to support the American position
0:17:02 > 0:17:05would be made at the North Atlantic Council.
0:17:06 > 0:17:09Nato's North Atlantic Council has voted to deploy
0:17:09 > 0:17:13the Very High Readiness Joint Task Force to Latvia.
0:17:13 > 0:17:16Britain contributes over 1,000 personnel to the task force.
0:17:16 > 0:17:17- DAVID CAMERON:- Over the next months,
0:17:17 > 0:17:20we're going to be deploying British service personnel
0:17:20 > 0:17:21to provide advice and a range of training,
0:17:21 > 0:17:23from tactical intelligence...
0:17:23 > 0:17:25Meanwhile, Russia has announced what it calls
0:17:25 > 0:17:28"routine military exercises" close to the Latvian border.
0:17:28 > 0:17:30- OBAMA:- Troops massing along that border,
0:17:30 > 0:17:32under the guise of military exercises.
0:17:32 > 0:17:35What we need right now to deescalate the situation
0:17:35 > 0:17:37would be for Russia to move back those troops.
0:17:43 > 0:17:45The Latvian Army began its ill-fated operation
0:17:45 > 0:17:49to retake Daugavpils International Airport just before dawn.
0:17:49 > 0:17:52They met stiff resistance from the pro-Russian separatists,
0:17:52 > 0:17:54who a Latvian officer told me
0:17:54 > 0:17:58clearly included well-trained, professional soldiers.
0:18:00 > 0:18:02IN RUSSIAN:
0:18:19 > 0:18:21SHOUTING
0:18:23 > 0:18:25..in the last few minutes.
0:18:25 > 0:18:27We're just hearing that four British soldiers
0:18:27 > 0:18:30have been captured by Pro-Russian militia
0:18:30 > 0:18:31in the town of Vandani.
0:18:31 > 0:18:33IN RUSSIAN:
0:19:21 > 0:19:23SHOUTING
0:19:27 > 0:19:30We understand the four men were apparently helping the Latvian Army
0:19:30 > 0:19:32with mentoring and intelligence.
0:19:35 > 0:19:38We were told we were going in to Latvia in a peacekeeping role,
0:19:38 > 0:19:39but when we got here,
0:19:39 > 0:19:43our orders were to fight alongside the Latvian army.
0:19:43 > 0:19:45And we were doing that even though Nato
0:19:45 > 0:19:48has denied killing Russian people in Latvia.
0:19:49 > 0:19:53I'm really sorry British soldiers are being ordered to do things
0:19:53 > 0:19:56that could hurt Russian people in Latvia.
0:19:56 > 0:20:00I think it's wrong and I hope the British Government will stop that.
0:20:03 > 0:20:05MEYER: The choice confronting us today
0:20:05 > 0:20:06is whether we mount a rescue attempt
0:20:06 > 0:20:10of our four boys held prisoner by pro-Russian militia
0:20:10 > 0:20:12or we leave them where they are.
0:20:13 > 0:20:15- FALKNER:- Have we spoken to the UN Secretary General?
0:20:15 > 0:20:17He's not going to be able to rescue them.
0:20:17 > 0:20:21Have we spoken to him? Have we internationalised the situation?
0:20:21 > 0:20:25I can't think of anything worse than internationalising the situation.
0:20:25 > 0:20:26I mean...
0:20:26 > 0:20:29Nato requires in Article 5 that you internationalise by...
0:20:29 > 0:20:31in conformance with the UN Charter.
0:20:31 > 0:20:33Well, we are now operating under Article 5.
0:20:33 > 0:20:36It seems to me extraordinary not to use the Good Offices
0:20:36 > 0:20:39of the UN Secretary General in a hostage situation.
0:20:39 > 0:20:42I have never known a Good Office of the UN Secretary General ever work.
0:20:42 > 0:20:44Actually, I'd quite like to have the general speak.
0:20:44 > 0:20:47Can we do this thing? If we decided here round this table
0:20:47 > 0:20:52to send in an extraction force as opposed to Ban Ki Moon,
0:20:52 > 0:20:55as Kishwer is suggesting.
0:20:55 > 0:20:57Erm... Could we do it?
0:20:57 > 0:21:00I think we would clearly want to look at the situation,
0:21:00 > 0:21:02understand the position. But the question you ask is
0:21:02 > 0:21:04"Could it be done?" Yes, it could be done.
0:21:04 > 0:21:07Come on, then, what's the record of success, do you think?
0:21:07 > 0:21:09Would you like, would you like to give us odds?
0:21:09 > 0:21:10- High.- I...- High - certainly the ones
0:21:10 > 0:21:12I was involved in were all successful.
0:21:12 > 0:21:13We've got a lot of assets there.
0:21:13 > 0:21:16There will be a lot... Because of the force that's gone in there,
0:21:16 > 0:21:18there will be a lot of intelligence assets working.
0:21:18 > 0:21:20We'll have a very good picture of what's going on,
0:21:20 > 0:21:24and therefore I'm sure they can come up with a plan and action it,
0:21:24 > 0:21:29and if it is really only locals doing it,
0:21:29 > 0:21:31then it should absolutely succeed.
0:21:31 > 0:21:33The Russians, I believe, are involved.
0:21:33 > 0:21:36It would be very interesting to see if they would do anything
0:21:36 > 0:21:38in terms of trying to counter that sort of thing,
0:21:38 > 0:21:39which would expose their hand.
0:21:39 > 0:21:41I agree.
0:21:41 > 0:21:42I think the question for us
0:21:42 > 0:21:47is whether we take the Russians at face value...
0:21:50 > 0:21:52..that, "It's not them, guv",
0:21:52 > 0:21:56and therefore they of course will welcome our boys being brought out.
0:21:56 > 0:22:00And do we tell them 30 seconds before we do it,
0:22:00 > 0:22:04that we're doing it, in order to avoid an escalation
0:22:04 > 0:22:05that we don't want,
0:22:05 > 0:22:08so we can contain this as a military action.
0:22:08 > 0:22:10We should not share that information or that plan
0:22:10 > 0:22:11with the Russians, in my opinion,
0:22:11 > 0:22:13because they may tip people off on the ground.
0:22:13 > 0:22:17If the Russians know this thing is happening and we don't tell them,
0:22:17 > 0:22:18but they can see that it's happening,
0:22:18 > 0:22:20will they just let it happen?
0:22:20 > 0:22:24My instinct is that they would let it happen,
0:22:24 > 0:22:25because they don't want...
0:22:25 > 0:22:27They're under instructions to be invisible,
0:22:27 > 0:22:29so I'm entirely with Alan and the others -
0:22:29 > 0:22:30we get our boys out.
0:22:47 > 0:22:48GUNFIRE IN DISTANCE
0:23:01 > 0:23:04Four British soldiers captured by separatists in Eastern Latvia
0:23:04 > 0:23:05have been rescued.
0:23:05 > 0:23:08The MOD said the operation was a "complete success",
0:23:08 > 0:23:11and the four men are understood to be on their way...
0:23:11 > 0:23:12Good afternoon.
0:23:12 > 0:23:15A Russian fighter jet has crashed a few hundred yards
0:23:15 > 0:23:17from the Latvian border, just inside Russia.
0:23:17 > 0:23:21President Putin called the incident "a grave provocation"
0:23:21 > 0:23:24and demanded an explanation from Nato.
0:23:24 > 0:23:27A Nato spokesman insisted they had not shot down the jet,
0:23:27 > 0:23:31suggesting it may have in fact crashed due to pilot error...
0:23:35 > 0:23:37CLATTERING
0:23:44 > 0:23:45The helicopter was shot down
0:23:45 > 0:23:48as it transported troops to a military base.
0:23:48 > 0:23:52The Latvian Army has confirmed that 15 of its soldiers were killed.
0:23:52 > 0:23:56Nato sources have told me that they believe the helicopter was shot down
0:23:56 > 0:23:59with a surface-to-air missile fired from inside Russia.
0:24:00 > 0:24:03'They're adamant that it's an S400 missile
0:24:03 > 0:24:06'that took out the helicopter, and it was fired from Russian soil.
0:24:06 > 0:24:08'Does that tally with your intelligence?'
0:24:08 > 0:24:11Yeah, absolutely. Absolutely.
0:24:11 > 0:24:14But...what does the rest of the council think about this?
0:24:14 > 0:24:16'Well, I think we can expect the Americans
0:24:16 > 0:24:17'to take a very hard line of this.
0:24:17 > 0:24:21'Poland of course and the other Balts are keen.
0:24:21 > 0:24:22'Germany is getting wobblier.
0:24:22 > 0:24:26'Now there's very grave concern here that if the airstrike is to happen,
0:24:26 > 0:24:29'and it is to be effective, it would have to be very comprehensive
0:24:29 > 0:24:31'and so we might easily find ourselves
0:24:31 > 0:24:33'being tipped over into a hot war.
0:24:33 > 0:24:35'What's the UK position?'
0:24:35 > 0:24:39Well, David, that is precisely what we've got to talk about here.
0:24:39 > 0:24:42I'll get back to you as soon as I can. Thank you.
0:24:44 > 0:24:50Well...a simple question, but full of complicated ramifications.
0:24:50 > 0:24:53Are we going to respond to the shooting down
0:24:53 > 0:24:56of the Latvian Nato helicopter
0:24:56 > 0:25:02by hitting this battery on Russian soil, yes or no? James?
0:25:02 > 0:25:04- Yes.- Would you like to start the ball rolling on this?
0:25:04 > 0:25:06It's quite simple - yes.
0:25:06 > 0:25:09They have shot down a Nato helicopter.
0:25:09 > 0:25:13I think that if we fail to respond,
0:25:13 > 0:25:18we will be allowing Russia to push forward
0:25:18 > 0:25:22in a way that leads to no end to aggression,
0:25:22 > 0:25:23and I think that's a bad thing.
0:25:23 > 0:25:26First of all, I agree that we need to respond.
0:25:26 > 0:25:29Second point, yes, a response is proportionate -
0:25:29 > 0:25:31ie, we don't nuke Moscow.
0:25:31 > 0:25:33But, thirdly, if such a thing exists,
0:25:33 > 0:25:37I would far rather find a target in Latvia than in Russia.
0:25:38 > 0:25:40But if it's not possible, it's not possible.
0:25:40 > 0:25:42You do something in Russia.
0:25:42 > 0:25:45I think the S400 might well have moved by now,
0:25:45 > 0:25:48and I think, therefore, what we probably have to do -
0:25:48 > 0:25:49and this is a bit soft for me
0:25:49 > 0:25:52cos I normally like hitting people who hit me -
0:25:52 > 0:25:55is make absolutely clear to the Russians through back channels
0:25:55 > 0:25:57and any channel, through official channels,
0:25:57 > 0:26:00that we know that this was fired from an S400 site,
0:26:00 > 0:26:02that we are now giving rules of engagement
0:26:02 > 0:26:04that will allow immediate reengagement -
0:26:04 > 0:26:07anything that is fired into the air over Latvia or Estonia or Lithuania
0:26:07 > 0:26:11with an immediate response, even though it is in Russian territory.
0:26:11 > 0:26:14The S400 is part of an exceptionally sophisticated,
0:26:14 > 0:26:17integrated air defence system.
0:26:17 > 0:26:21You are not in the business of just singling out a particular battery
0:26:21 > 0:26:23and deciding, "We're going to take that."
0:26:23 > 0:26:26Actually, in order to do that, you probably have to take down
0:26:26 > 0:26:28the whole integrated air defence system.
0:26:28 > 0:26:29So this is a big operation.
0:26:29 > 0:26:32Then, on top of that, what you're doing
0:26:32 > 0:26:34is attacking Russian sovereign territory,
0:26:34 > 0:26:38and the Russians could well say, "You're attacking the motherland.
0:26:38 > 0:26:41"We will use whatever we want to respond",
0:26:41 > 0:26:43and they would quite easily, quite happily,
0:26:43 > 0:26:46use one of their Iskander missiles, one of their many Iskander missiles,
0:26:46 > 0:26:48based up there in Kaliningrad.
0:26:48 > 0:26:51- Furthermore, if you then look... - Iskander, what is that?
0:26:51 > 0:26:53Iskander is a nuclear... It's a nuclear missile
0:26:53 > 0:26:55with a range of about 400km -
0:26:55 > 0:26:59so Warsaw, Berlin, Stockholm are all within range.
0:26:59 > 0:27:01He's absolutely right about the IADS.
0:27:01 > 0:27:03To actually fly aircraft over Russia,
0:27:03 > 0:27:05you have to take out the IADS,
0:27:05 > 0:27:08but taking out the IADS system is a major act of war.
0:27:09 > 0:27:13The remit of this committee is to take a decision today
0:27:13 > 0:27:18on whether or not we should retaliate by hitting the battery
0:27:18 > 0:27:21on Russian soil, yes or no?
0:27:21 > 0:27:23No, not on Russian soil.
0:27:23 > 0:27:25There is no consensus for that around this table,
0:27:25 > 0:27:29- therefore we can't recommend that this happens.- Agree.
0:27:29 > 0:27:32What we can do is send them a very clear warning
0:27:32 > 0:27:36that the next time there's the slightest hint of this happening,
0:27:36 > 0:27:39they would get a missile down their throats
0:27:39 > 0:27:41and to make it plain to them that we know
0:27:41 > 0:27:44that it was they who were responsible.
0:27:49 > 0:27:51The people of Daugavpils in Eastern Latvia
0:27:51 > 0:27:55woke up to a column of 300 Russian trucks this morning.
0:27:55 > 0:27:58President Putin says the column is a humanitarian mission...
0:27:58 > 0:28:02- JURDZ:- This is an invasion of Latvian soil by the Russian army,
0:28:02 > 0:28:06with the purpose of resupplying the Russian saboteurs
0:28:06 > 0:28:08already operating in Latgale.
0:28:09 > 0:28:11And if they do not leave,
0:28:11 > 0:28:15then the Latvian Army will begin operations against them.
0:28:17 > 0:28:20The fiercely pro-Moscow mayor of Daugavpils, Dimitri Vorslav,
0:28:20 > 0:28:24greeted the Russian soldiers on the convoy as heroes.
0:28:24 > 0:28:26There's been no independent verification
0:28:26 > 0:28:29of the contents of the 300 trucks in the column,
0:28:29 > 0:28:33but Riga claims the vehicles have brought arms and ammunition...
0:28:33 > 0:28:37We've got the President of Russia's National Security Advisor
0:28:37 > 0:28:39coming through.
0:28:39 > 0:28:44Grigori Ivanovich, we have an elite front line unit,
0:28:44 > 0:28:49one of the divisions of the Guards Air Assault riding on the convoy
0:28:49 > 0:28:54with heavy equipment, which can only be regarded as military.
0:28:54 > 0:28:56'Well, they are generators.
0:28:57 > 0:29:03'They are food supplies and baby formula and medical supplies.
0:29:03 > 0:29:06'It is a peaceful, humanitarian mission.
0:29:07 > 0:29:11'In fact, we hope for a possible solution to this crisis.
0:29:11 > 0:29:15'President Putin believes he can use his influence
0:29:15 > 0:29:17'to achieve a ceasefire.
0:29:17 > 0:29:20'He has sent a proposal to Riga
0:29:20 > 0:29:22'and we believe this could be basis for talks.'
0:29:24 > 0:29:27Well, we will take a look at this peace proposal.
0:29:28 > 0:29:30The main components are as follows -
0:29:30 > 0:29:33number one, all foreign powers
0:29:33 > 0:29:36should withdraw from Latvian territory.
0:29:36 > 0:29:39Second, the United Nations will take control
0:29:39 > 0:29:43of humanitarian and peace-keeping operations in the Latgale region.
0:29:45 > 0:29:51Three, all sides should respect the rights of Latgalian people
0:29:51 > 0:29:53to carry out free and fair referendum
0:29:53 > 0:29:56on greater autonomy from Riga.
0:29:58 > 0:30:03Lastly, Nato should recommit to not stationing any permanent troops
0:30:03 > 0:30:08in Latvia or other former Soviet republics.
0:30:09 > 0:30:14Tony, give us an expert's view of the worth of this proposal.
0:30:14 > 0:30:16Snap... Snap judgment.
0:30:16 > 0:30:19Snap judgment, it seems to be the basis for a discussion.
0:30:19 > 0:30:22Referendum on the autonomy is going to be the hard part, of course,
0:30:22 > 0:30:25because that's finally a judgment for the Latvian government.
0:30:25 > 0:30:29Erm, but if that is the way of preventing a major war in Europe,
0:30:29 > 0:30:31it may be worth doing, and the fourth point,
0:30:31 > 0:30:35we're simply being asked to recommit to something that we've committed ourselves to already.
0:30:35 > 0:30:38- No, we're not. - This is absolute rubbish.
0:30:38 > 0:30:41This actually is what Putin's overall aim has been.
0:30:41 > 0:30:44The next step is, does he do the same with Poland?
0:30:44 > 0:30:48You know, does he... I mean, this is part of Nato territory,
0:30:48 > 0:30:51I mean, it would be unbelievable for us to agree to those things,
0:30:51 > 0:30:54absolutely unbelievable, and completely let him feel
0:30:54 > 0:30:57he's done exactly what he wanted to do. This is his aim.
0:30:57 > 0:31:00- We've got Washington coming through. - Hi, everybody.
0:31:00 > 0:31:03There's too many soldiers on the ground for this to be what
0:31:03 > 0:31:06they say it is, and the President feels we've reached
0:31:06 > 0:31:10the moment of truth in terms of force as a response to this.
0:31:10 > 0:31:14We'd like to set a 72-hour deadline for the removal of all
0:31:14 > 0:31:16Russian personnel from Latvia.
0:31:16 > 0:31:20Latvia needs to be restored to full territorial integrity.
0:31:20 > 0:31:24Thank you very much for enlightening us on that.
0:31:24 > 0:31:28- We'll be talking to you again soon, Laurel.- All right, we'll talk to you soon.- Thank you.
0:31:28 > 0:31:31Do we, as Laurel was suggesting,
0:31:31 > 0:31:34do what the Americans are demanding, which is
0:31:34 > 0:31:38for Nato to set an ultimatum for the withdrawal of these trucks
0:31:38 > 0:31:45and if the Russians fail to do it be prepared to resort to force?
0:31:45 > 0:31:49In other words, if I can put it in a crude tabloid-y way,
0:31:49 > 0:31:53are we ready to die for Daugavpils?
0:31:53 > 0:31:55I think we absolutely need to give an ultimatum
0:31:55 > 0:31:59and we need to ensure that Nato's got the right sort of forces
0:31:59 > 0:32:01in place to be able to take military action.
0:32:01 > 0:32:03We also need to bear in mind,
0:32:03 > 0:32:05and I know this is a horrifying thought,
0:32:05 > 0:32:07but part of Russian doctrine is
0:32:07 > 0:32:10that if they do get involved in major fighting
0:32:10 > 0:32:12the use of tactical nuclear weapons, for example, is just
0:32:12 > 0:32:16a part of that, they don't see that as anything strange, and therefore
0:32:16 > 0:32:19I think we need to think very carefully of what is the readiness,
0:32:19 > 0:32:23and what level of readiness Nato has for its, er...its nuclear forces.
0:32:25 > 0:32:32General, say the ultimatum is 72 hours from midday today.
0:32:32 > 0:32:36What can we do when the ultimatum expires if the Russians haven't withdrawn?
0:32:36 > 0:32:39Nato could take military action, erm,
0:32:39 > 0:32:43but it's going to need to be overwhelmingly strong
0:32:43 > 0:32:48in order to snuff out any potential, er, reaction quickly.
0:32:48 > 0:32:53It's got to take account of the public-information perspective
0:32:53 > 0:32:58of being seen to support Latvians, erm, in dealing with
0:32:58 > 0:33:02supposedly humanitarians, but are they humanitarians?
0:33:02 > 0:33:04But if, as we think,
0:33:04 > 0:33:08they are members of the 76th Air Assault Division, well,
0:33:08 > 0:33:11there's only one way to do it, which is to be robust,
0:33:11 > 0:33:14to overmatch, and that means significant deployment of forces.
0:33:14 > 0:33:19So you think the joint task force with the Latvian Army
0:33:19 > 0:33:23is up to attacking the Guards Air Assault...
0:33:23 > 0:33:26the members of the Guards Air Assault Division,
0:33:26 > 0:33:28and actually overwhelming them?
0:33:28 > 0:33:32An operation like this is not the sort of thing that you put
0:33:32 > 0:33:35a potentially flaky multinational force in to do.
0:33:35 > 0:33:39I would like to see a single unified force,
0:33:39 > 0:33:42possibly from the Americans, coming in to just...
0:33:42 > 0:33:45put a fire blanket over this and snuff it out completely.
0:33:45 > 0:33:47That's quite worrying, what you've just said to us,
0:33:47 > 0:33:52because it suggests that the joint task force, Nato,
0:33:52 > 0:33:56within 72 hours could not carry out this threat.
0:33:56 > 0:33:59Latvia, if I remember correctly... Latvia's got about...
0:33:59 > 0:34:02roughly two million, just under two million people. Right?
0:34:02 > 0:34:06So we're seriously talking here about unleashing
0:34:06 > 0:34:12World War Three for half a dozen boroughs of a metropolitan city.
0:34:12 > 0:34:15I mean, it seems to me quite extraordinary that we're doing that
0:34:15 > 0:34:19at the time when we have a potential peace proposal on the table...
0:34:19 > 0:34:22- It destroys Nato. - We've been offered...
0:34:22 > 0:34:25- That peace proposal destroys the whole concept of Nato.- Can...
0:34:25 > 0:34:27Absolutely, it destroys the whole concept of Nato.
0:34:27 > 0:34:33Let me say to you...that just over 100 years ago there was a view
0:34:33 > 0:34:37that an alliance, and alliances were more important than
0:34:37 > 0:34:39security of the citizens of this continent.
0:34:39 > 0:34:43- The First World War...- Let's not use alliances as straightjackets.
0:34:43 > 0:34:48I do think that we need to preserve some multinationality.
0:34:50 > 0:34:54Because I do not think that the optics of the Americans rescuing
0:34:54 > 0:34:58the Europeans and the Europeans not taking part is good at all.
0:34:58 > 0:35:00I agree entirely with that.
0:35:00 > 0:35:04We had conniptions about the first humanitarian Russian convoy into Ukraine.
0:35:04 > 0:35:07We were wrong, it was a humanitarian convoy.
0:35:07 > 0:35:11There was all sorts of elaborate talk of Russian plots and so on
0:35:11 > 0:35:13and it was a humanitarian convoy.
0:35:13 > 0:35:16I do not want to go into World War Three
0:35:16 > 0:35:19while shooting down a humanitarian convoy.
0:35:19 > 0:35:21That puts us in the wrong in every single way,
0:35:21 > 0:35:24in terms of UK popular opinion, in terms of world opinion.
0:35:24 > 0:35:27- It would be a disaster.- These trucks are completely irrelevant.
0:35:27 > 0:35:29They've tabled a peace deal, OK?
0:35:29 > 0:35:32We need to respond to that formally, and our response to that
0:35:32 > 0:35:37should be completely to reject it, but we do need a deadline.
0:35:37 > 0:35:40It should be a deadline linked to our own military plans,
0:35:40 > 0:35:42and the Russian spokesman said
0:35:42 > 0:35:44President Putin thought he could get a ceasefire.
0:35:44 > 0:35:47That's what President Putin needs to help deliver.
0:35:47 > 0:35:49I would like to put to the committee,
0:35:49 > 0:35:52the simple question around which you have to say yes or no
0:35:52 > 0:35:56is, subject to parliamentary approval,
0:35:56 > 0:36:01would you agree to the American proposal for a 72-hour ultimatum
0:36:01 > 0:36:04for the withdrawal of Russian forces, which,
0:36:04 > 0:36:08- if they don't do that, would be met by the use of force by us.- Yes.
0:36:08 > 0:36:11- I want a vote now, please.- Yes.
0:36:11 > 0:36:15Who is in favour? That's four...five.
0:36:15 > 0:36:19- No.- Five.- Wrong tactics.- It would be madness.- I'm a... I'm a no.
0:36:19 > 0:36:24- Wrong tactics.- You're a no. We have five yeses, we have four noes.
0:36:24 > 0:36:27- I think we've got it, then. - The motion is supported.
0:36:31 > 0:36:34REPORTER: In the past hour, MPs have voted in favour of the UK using
0:36:34 > 0:36:38military force, if required, to restore Latvia's territorial
0:36:38 > 0:36:42integrity and fulfil Britain's obligations under Article 5.
0:36:42 > 0:36:45There's been a tense stand-off in the Baltic Sea today,
0:36:45 > 0:36:47with Nato's naval group pushing east
0:36:47 > 0:36:50and coming within two miles of the Russian Baltic Fleet.
0:36:50 > 0:36:54Our defence correspondent, Jonathan Beale, sent this report from on board HMS Ocean.
0:36:54 > 0:36:58It's the proof that Britain's stepping up the offensive.
0:36:58 > 0:37:02Four Apache helicopters ready to launch from a warship.
0:37:02 > 0:37:05President Putin says tactical nuclear weapons have now been
0:37:05 > 0:37:08deployed to Kaliningrad.
0:37:08 > 0:37:11Announcing the move, he warned that Moscow was ready to repel any
0:37:11 > 0:37:15aggression against Russian soil and Russian peoples.
0:37:17 > 0:37:20There's a lot of rhetoric coming out of Moscow from Putin himself
0:37:20 > 0:37:24about Russia's nuclear forces.
0:37:24 > 0:37:25The question is,
0:37:25 > 0:37:30how should we respond to this kind of nuclear posturing?
0:37:30 > 0:37:31General.
0:37:31 > 0:37:35Well, the answer to how do we respond to nuclear posturing
0:37:35 > 0:37:41is through deterrence, through raising the bar so high that Putin
0:37:41 > 0:37:46realises that it's simply not worth his while to try to cross that bar.
0:37:46 > 0:37:50Erm, and that means conventional capability as well as nuclear capability,
0:37:50 > 0:37:53and deterrence is all about capability,
0:37:53 > 0:37:56it's about credibility and it's about communicating that capability.
0:37:56 > 0:38:01Can we deploy...another submarine, nuclear submarine?
0:38:01 > 0:38:06- If...- In a kind of visible way which we could tell the Russians...
0:38:06 > 0:38:08They would know if we deployed another submarine.
0:38:08 > 0:38:12The other factor is that the Moscow criteria of destroying...
0:38:12 > 0:38:17Moscow, all of their command, all of their, er, government and everything,
0:38:17 > 0:38:20is probably not quite met by one boat.
0:38:20 > 0:38:23If we deployed a second boat, that has a message in itself.
0:38:23 > 0:38:26Having one boat is capable of just firing one missile
0:38:26 > 0:38:29and using it in a sense...tactically.
0:38:29 > 0:38:32- I mean, dangerous stuff, but... - Here's a rather elementary question.
0:38:32 > 0:38:35Are the missiles targeted at Russia now?
0:38:35 > 0:38:39We have set an example in the world by not targeting our missiles
0:38:39 > 0:38:42and they are at prolonged notice for fire, but at the moment...
0:38:42 > 0:38:45So they aren't targeted. How long does it take to...
0:38:45 > 0:38:49- As we speak they're not targeted. - How long would it... - It can be done very quickly.
0:38:49 > 0:38:50Kishwer.
0:38:50 > 0:38:53The idea that we've given them this very,
0:38:53 > 0:38:55very tight deadline...
0:38:55 > 0:38:58and asked them to come up with
0:38:58 > 0:39:03a humiliating climb-down on the back of this deadline,
0:39:03 > 0:39:09I really wonder whether... now we're talking nuclear weapons.
0:39:09 > 0:39:12I really wonder whether we know what we're doing.
0:39:12 > 0:39:14I don't like it one bit.
0:39:14 > 0:39:18I think somehow we've got to find some face-saving measure
0:39:18 > 0:39:20to extend the deadline.
0:39:20 > 0:39:23- The deadline was dumb...- Exactly. - ..not to say disastrous.
0:39:23 > 0:39:25We now need to find a way of backing away from it,
0:39:25 > 0:39:29launch a peace proposal, whatever you...publicly, and get some talks going.
0:39:29 > 0:39:32I'm worried about that because I think the signal that that sends
0:39:32 > 0:39:37to Putin is that he has in effect unilateral nuclear deterrence.
0:39:38 > 0:39:40You'd rather have a nuclear exchange?
0:39:40 > 0:39:42But the purpose of showing that
0:39:42 > 0:39:47we are ready for such an exchange is precisely to deter it, whereas
0:39:47 > 0:39:51if you make clear that what you're trying to do is to back away...
0:39:51 > 0:39:55- Ian, you are edging us further and further towards Armageddon. - Absolutely, we are not getting...
0:39:55 > 0:39:58Putin is edging us further and further towards Armageddon.
0:39:58 > 0:40:02- I mean...- We have choices. We have choices.- And so does he.
0:40:02 > 0:40:04We need to exercise those choices,
0:40:04 > 0:40:08and the choices that you're recommending to us just are Armageddon.
0:40:10 > 0:40:13I do believe that the 72-hour deadline must be kept
0:40:13 > 0:40:17and I think we can also say through back channels, "Look, this is all getting very dangerous now.
0:40:17 > 0:40:20"We are actually correcting things in Latvia,
0:40:20 > 0:40:24"let's not let this become anything... We're not attacking Russia..." You know...
0:40:24 > 0:40:29So, specifically and operationally, how do we respond?
0:40:29 > 0:40:33We bring our forces to, erm, 15-minute readiness to fire, which is what it was in the Cold War...
0:40:33 > 0:40:36- And do we tell him we're... - Yes.- ..we're targeting him?
0:40:36 > 0:40:40And I think probably, and this is why I wanted a debate... I think we should tell him.
0:40:40 > 0:40:44I think we are agreed that there should be an intensive
0:40:44 > 0:40:46diplomatic effort to try
0:40:46 > 0:40:50and bring this thing down from the potential nuclear clouds
0:40:50 > 0:40:53but at the same time we should respond to his nuclear blackmail
0:40:53 > 0:40:58and signal some key things to him, such as the targeting,
0:40:58 > 0:41:02so that he knows that if he's going to do this, we're serious.
0:41:05 > 0:41:08- REPORTER:- Nato's North Atlantic Council has been meeting
0:41:08 > 0:41:12in closed session for six hours, debating their next steps, now that
0:41:12 > 0:41:16the deadline for Russian withdrawal from Latvia has passed.
0:41:16 > 0:41:19Speaking in Brussels, the German Chancellor, Angela Merkel,
0:41:19 > 0:41:22said she believed a negotiated settlement was still possible
0:41:22 > 0:41:26and that she would push for the deadline to be extended.
0:41:27 > 0:41:30- Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. - Good morning.
0:41:30 > 0:41:35For rather obvious reasons Admiral West cannot be with us this morning.
0:41:35 > 0:41:41The German Chancellor is not ready to start an offensive operation.
0:41:41 > 0:41:45And our clear priority has to be in seeking a ceasefire
0:41:45 > 0:41:48and not to escalating this into a Third World War.
0:41:48 > 0:41:52It's not just the Germans, Christopher. I'm afraid I have no good news for you.
0:41:52 > 0:41:55The Belgians, the Danes, the Spanish, the Greeks,
0:41:55 > 0:41:58the Italians, they're all pushing for an extension to the deadline
0:41:58 > 0:42:00and increased diplomatic pressure.
0:42:00 > 0:42:02Let me tell you, if President Putin wanted to test Nato
0:42:02 > 0:42:06and see it fail, I think he's been doing a pretty good job.
0:42:06 > 0:42:12The Joint Chiefs still feel that retaking Daugavpils and the surrounding area would be
0:42:12 > 0:42:16a relatively short campaign, but only if we move right away.
0:42:16 > 0:42:19So right now we are talking about a coalition of the willing.
0:42:19 > 0:42:24So we're looking at the fragmentation of Nato...over this.
0:42:24 > 0:42:26If we do this thing we'll be in the company not only
0:42:26 > 0:42:31of the United States but of France, the three Baltic states and Poland.
0:42:31 > 0:42:35- Is this a workable coalition?- Very. - Can this be done?- Very workable.
0:42:35 > 0:42:36Very workable?
0:42:36 > 0:42:39I would be in favour of joining an American-led
0:42:39 > 0:42:40coalition of the willing.
0:42:40 > 0:42:42I think that joining that coalition
0:42:42 > 0:42:45gives us rights of consultation and of diplomacy.
0:42:45 > 0:42:48In other words, that this is not something where we are
0:42:48 > 0:42:51the passive recipients of orders from elsewhere.
0:42:51 > 0:42:54We should take Chancellor Merkel's idea that the deadline can be extended.
0:42:54 > 0:42:58She has already made it clear that she's unwilling for any military
0:42:58 > 0:43:01force to be used even inside Latvia, which is a fundamental mistake.
0:43:01 > 0:43:04It may have been understandable in the context of Ukraine, it is
0:43:04 > 0:43:07not understandable in the context of a Nato member state.
0:43:07 > 0:43:11- There is only one Western politician whom Putin listens to.- That's true.
0:43:11 > 0:43:15Give Merkel the right brief, she has a tremendous incentive to try
0:43:15 > 0:43:17and sort out a diplomatic deal.
0:43:17 > 0:43:20But she has no leverage, because she's rejected the leverage.
0:43:20 > 0:43:23No, no, no, but she does this on behalf of the West.
0:43:23 > 0:43:26The point is, back to the two tracks, yes, we go with
0:43:26 > 0:43:29the coalition of the willing but the condition is that there is time...
0:43:29 > 0:43:32- She had leverage in Ukraine. - If I may, if I may.- Yeah.
0:43:32 > 0:43:37There is time for Merkel actually to try and sort out another way out.
0:43:37 > 0:43:39Putin is a good Leninist,
0:43:39 > 0:43:42or at least he was before he became an even better capitalist.
0:43:42 > 0:43:46Erm, he knows that if you thrust in the bayonet
0:43:46 > 0:43:48and you meet nothing but mush
0:43:48 > 0:43:52you keep pushing, and what I think he would take from a discussion
0:43:52 > 0:43:55like this is that there's still plenty of mush in the West.
0:43:55 > 0:44:01We can demonstrate that that... ultimatum meant something
0:44:01 > 0:44:04by now starting to ramp up militarily.
0:44:04 > 0:44:07It doesn't mean we have to actually get out our guns
0:44:07 > 0:44:09and point them and start shooting.
0:44:09 > 0:44:13We can build up, as we are doing all these other things that we've talked about at the moment.
0:44:13 > 0:44:14The longer you leave it,
0:44:14 > 0:44:17the more difficult this nut is going to be to crack.
0:44:17 > 0:44:20We've got enough in Latvia from potentially
0:44:20 > 0:44:25Americans, British, French, other Baltic states, ie,
0:44:25 > 0:44:28members of the coalition of the willing. Which...
0:44:28 > 0:44:30And if you've got that, actually,
0:44:30 > 0:44:33you could probably do something like this pretty quickly.
0:44:33 > 0:44:35We'll have a vote now.
0:44:35 > 0:44:40Who agrees with the proposition that we join the American-led coalition?
0:44:40 > 0:44:43Well, this is plus all the diplomacy before it actually...
0:44:43 > 0:44:46- I have already set out...- OK, on those terms, yes.- ..the package.
0:44:46 > 0:44:50- What's the point of diplomacy if you'd already agreed a position in advance?- I've set...
0:44:50 > 0:44:53It's what is known in the trade as a twin-track position.
0:44:53 > 0:44:58- This is not twin-track, it's pre-emption.- By a majority of one, two, three, four, five...
0:44:58 > 0:45:00By a majority of seven to one,
0:45:00 > 0:45:03we are agreed to join the American-led coalition,
0:45:03 > 0:45:07and your objection will be recorded in the minutes of this meeting.
0:45:10 > 0:45:13- REPORTER:- British and American soldiers launched an offensive
0:45:13 > 0:45:16overnight to retake the city of Daugavpils.
0:45:16 > 0:45:18Several thousand troops are believed to have been involved
0:45:18 > 0:45:22in the operation, which began in the early hours of the morning.
0:45:25 > 0:45:28Just after midnight, the US began a massive
0:45:28 > 0:45:31helicopter deployment in these fields behind me.
0:45:31 > 0:45:35Several thousand Marines then advanced on Daugavpils...
0:45:35 > 0:45:38Coalition forces are in control of central Daugavpils.
0:45:39 > 0:45:44Pro-Russian separatists are believed to have taken heavy casualties.
0:45:44 > 0:45:47On the road to Vandani this morning I saw the bodies
0:45:47 > 0:45:50of two British infantrymen lying where they fell
0:45:50 > 0:45:53when their patrol was ambushed last night.
0:45:53 > 0:45:56The Ministry of Defence has confirmed that four soldiers
0:45:56 > 0:45:59were killed and another two injured in the attack...
0:46:13 > 0:46:17We're getting reports of a possible nuclear explosion in the Baltic Sea.
0:46:17 > 0:46:20Eyewitnesses described a blinding white light.
0:46:20 > 0:46:23The Iskander nuclear warhead appears to have been detonated
0:46:23 > 0:46:28nearly a kilometre in the air above HMS Ocean and USS America.
0:46:28 > 0:46:31Both ships would have been devastated immediately
0:46:31 > 0:46:34by the fireball from the blast.
0:46:34 > 0:46:36Over 800 Royal Marines
0:46:36 > 0:46:39and nearly 400 crew are believed to have been killed.
0:46:43 > 0:46:46This was an unintended strike.
0:46:46 > 0:46:50The commander exceeded his authority and will be dealt with.
0:46:50 > 0:46:54President Putin would like to convey to the UK that Russia does not
0:46:54 > 0:46:56want a nuclear war.
0:46:57 > 0:47:01All tactical and strategic weapons have been
0:47:01 > 0:47:04taken off the highest state of readiness.
0:47:04 > 0:47:09He deeply regrets the loss of life on boats of the naval group.
0:47:11 > 0:47:14Grigori, thank you for passing us that message,
0:47:14 > 0:47:16thank you for your condolences.
0:47:16 > 0:47:19This is something we will need to discuss.
0:47:19 > 0:47:23Clearly this is a very grave situation.
0:47:23 > 0:47:28There's been significant, massive loss of American and British lives.
0:47:28 > 0:47:33And...the world teeters on the edge of nuclear war here.
0:47:33 > 0:47:36The question here is whether we take this apology seriously.
0:47:36 > 0:47:40I think the message is, "Please don't retaliate." Erm...
0:47:40 > 0:47:44So I think that they are trying to stop us doing that. I think my...
0:47:44 > 0:47:48- Do you think it's a mistake?- I'm not sure I'm really interested in that.
0:47:48 > 0:47:51I don't rule it out, but I do think the fact that they're making...
0:47:51 > 0:47:53they've decided to play it like this,
0:47:53 > 0:47:56which is in itself pretty humiliating, erm, tells me
0:47:56 > 0:48:01something about their desire not to see, you know, the world go up.
0:48:01 > 0:48:04- Escalation.- Taking them to a lower stage of readiness.- Yes.
0:48:04 > 0:48:07I think we need some verification of that. Erm...
0:48:07 > 0:48:09I would be inclined to say that we should
0:48:09 > 0:48:11continue our operations on the ground,
0:48:11 > 0:48:14and I think that that's the important thing to do,
0:48:14 > 0:48:16and I think I'm rather attracted by the idea
0:48:16 > 0:48:18that for the moment we actually keep
0:48:18 > 0:48:22our political and diplomatic powder dry and get on with our operation.
0:48:22 > 0:48:26Our objective is to get the Russians out of Latvia.
0:48:26 > 0:48:28You're going to have the Sun and the Daily Mail saying,
0:48:28 > 0:48:30"We have let him get away with the murder of
0:48:30 > 0:48:34"1,200 British servicemen, why aren't we doing something about it?"
0:48:34 > 0:48:36And what are we going to say? So how do you deal with that?
0:48:36 > 0:48:40This is why the threat, a public threat of a retaliation if anything else happens,
0:48:40 > 0:48:42it's one of the reasons why it's important.
0:48:42 > 0:48:47There's going to be a lot of people out there thinking the world could end tonight or tomorrow.
0:48:47 > 0:48:49No, I think that's dangerous.
0:48:49 > 0:48:54That we say to them that we've notched up our alerts and that
0:48:54 > 0:48:59if anything more happens we will engage in a retalia... retaliatory strike.
0:48:59 > 0:49:02They've said they made a mistake.
0:49:02 > 0:49:05It's the miscalculation we've been talking about for weeks in this room.
0:49:05 > 0:49:08I certainly don't think we need to be saying now that
0:49:08 > 0:49:12"If you ever do this again we're standing by right...ready to respond."
0:49:12 > 0:49:16- Well, how many more rogue commanders has he got?- Hold on. Kishwer, hold on.
0:49:16 > 0:49:18- Laurel, hi, how are you?- Yeah, hi.
0:49:18 > 0:49:21I need to tell you that after much thought the President has
0:49:21 > 0:49:25come down on the side of a like-for-like, er,
0:49:25 > 0:49:30limited nuclear strike on a purely military target.
0:49:30 > 0:49:33And we're wondering what you feel about that.
0:49:33 > 0:49:37- I need to go back to the group and discuss this.- OK.
0:49:37 > 0:49:39- Thank you very much.- Thank you.
0:49:39 > 0:49:43- I think we should do everything we can to discourage the Americans from a like-to-like...- Yes.
0:49:43 > 0:49:45Is that the view of all?
0:49:45 > 0:49:47This gives us the opportunity to say to the Russians,
0:49:47 > 0:49:50"If you mean this, march out of Latvia now.
0:49:50 > 0:49:53"Drop your flags and you raise the white flag and get out of Latvia."
0:49:53 > 0:49:57- Well, I think we shouldn't go that far...- That doesn't give them a chance to climb down.
0:49:57 > 0:49:59Well, verify nuclear weapons,
0:49:59 > 0:50:02UN inspectors to look at all your nuclear weapons sites,
0:50:02 > 0:50:07and meanwhile we want an unconditional guarantee that
0:50:07 > 0:50:10you will not threaten your neighbours' territorial integrity.
0:50:10 > 0:50:14I think we have to threaten a retaliation if this happens again.
0:50:14 > 0:50:17If we approach this as a situation in which President Putin has
0:50:17 > 0:50:21to be humiliated and people have to start waving white flags,
0:50:21 > 0:50:22I think we will not get out...
0:50:22 > 0:50:26we will just end up killing ourselves and killing each other.
0:50:26 > 0:50:30- We have to give them a way out. - Pauline, you agree with this?
0:50:30 > 0:50:32Are you in the like-for-like camp?
0:50:32 > 0:50:34I'm very uneasy about it, I must admit.
0:50:34 > 0:50:39However, I think that, erm, our...threat to take action,
0:50:39 > 0:50:42you know, does have to have some credibility about it,
0:50:42 > 0:50:46so we do need to be prepared to strike.
0:50:46 > 0:50:50But I must say, I would in this instance argue with the Americans a bit first.
0:50:50 > 0:50:53Well, I think it would be grossly impertinent of us,
0:50:53 > 0:50:55they having lost a ship themselves,
0:50:55 > 0:50:58to tell the Americans not to do what they appear to be...
0:50:58 > 0:51:00Well, we, too, have lost a ship.
0:51:00 > 0:51:03We have lost a ship but we can make our decision
0:51:03 > 0:51:06but I think the United States is entitled to make their decision.
0:51:06 > 0:51:10But I would agree with what the General says, that the proof
0:51:10 > 0:51:14of what the Russians are saying is to be seen in
0:51:14 > 0:51:17whether they now withdraw from Latvia.
0:51:17 > 0:51:21If they do not it's clearly more Maskirovka,
0:51:21 > 0:51:24and then I think all bets are off and I think we really
0:51:24 > 0:51:28should be ready for an imminent nuclear strike.
0:51:28 > 0:51:32I thought, a couple of sessions ago, when we agreed that we would...
0:51:32 > 0:51:35when the rest of you agreed to support the Americans, I thought
0:51:35 > 0:51:39the tone of the meeting was that we have to be equal partners.
0:51:39 > 0:51:42We have to actually be there being listened to rather than just
0:51:42 > 0:51:44being their poodles.
0:51:44 > 0:51:48Yet now we're being told that we're being impertinent.
0:51:48 > 0:51:52- Well, excuse me... That was James's word.- I think the British public would be quite shocked at the idea
0:51:52 > 0:51:55that we might be impertinent in asking the Americans to hold back.
0:51:55 > 0:51:57I don't think we should get personal with...
0:51:57 > 0:52:01- We must recognise that the Americans may choose to take their own decision.- Precisely.- Yeah.
0:52:01 > 0:52:04Well, I think it is perfectly possible for the Russians to
0:52:04 > 0:52:08continue to fight in Latvia while sincerely regretting the fact
0:52:08 > 0:52:11that a nuclear weapon has been launched.
0:52:11 > 0:52:14- Possibly, but they have to do something to make amends.- Yes.
0:52:14 > 0:52:17I mean, for Putin actually to apologise,
0:52:17 > 0:52:19that's not something that he needs to do
0:52:19 > 0:52:22if he's using a nuclear weapon deliberately,
0:52:22 > 0:52:26and therefore I think it would be a big mistake for the Americans
0:52:26 > 0:52:29to launch a like-for-like strike, because actually that would then
0:52:29 > 0:52:33- tend to feed the logic of escalation again.- It wipes out...
0:52:33 > 0:52:36It wipes out the fact that he's gone beyond the rules,
0:52:36 > 0:52:39if you see what I mean, if we do retaliate straightaway, I think.
0:52:39 > 0:52:43- Yep.- It doesn't matter if Putin is lying. It doesn't matter at all. - No, I'm not interested in that.
0:52:43 > 0:52:46What matters is how we proceed from this situation in the way
0:52:46 > 0:52:49that best protects the British people and British interests.
0:52:49 > 0:52:52In a sense I'm with Tony here, that it's what we can now...
0:52:52 > 0:52:57to avoid the worst possible case of mutually assured destruction,
0:52:57 > 0:53:00but on the other hand to demonstrate strength,
0:53:00 > 0:53:03which is why I come back to unconditional surrender in Latvia.
0:53:03 > 0:53:06- You can't have that.- Why? - Unconditional surrender is...is...
0:53:06 > 0:53:08We can't use that kind of phraseology,
0:53:08 > 0:53:11- the entire room is against that.- All right... Whatever.
0:53:11 > 0:53:14Let's get the Russians to march out of Latvia
0:53:14 > 0:53:19and...be under no illusions that the threat of...
0:53:19 > 0:53:23- We will press the button if there's any sort of hint of a repeat.- Right.
0:53:23 > 0:53:26So I would now conclude that the sense of this meeting
0:53:26 > 0:53:31is that we are not with the Americans on like-for-like response,
0:53:31 > 0:53:35that we continue with our ground offensive in Latvia
0:53:35 > 0:53:39to get Russian troops out, that we say to the Russians,
0:53:39 > 0:53:45"Be in no doubt at all, if this happens again we will retaliate massively."
0:54:04 > 0:54:10The...Americans have decided not to take our advice
0:54:10 > 0:54:13and have used a tactical nuclear weapon
0:54:13 > 0:54:17to take out a target in Russia.
0:54:20 > 0:54:26Russian nuclear ICBMs are being readied for launch.
0:54:27 > 0:54:33If they launch, we will have just a few minutes to make a decision.
0:54:34 > 0:54:39Assuming that one or more of these missiles is targeted at London.
0:54:39 > 0:54:42And that decision will be, do we fire back?
0:54:44 > 0:54:45Or, more precisely,
0:54:45 > 0:54:52what...are the instructions that we give to our Trident commanders?
0:54:55 > 0:54:57General.
0:54:58 > 0:55:03Well, the military... advice can only be that...
0:55:05 > 0:55:09..er...to ready the Tridents, to...to
0:55:09 > 0:55:16reduce the notice to move, and to implement targeting procedures
0:55:16 > 0:55:19should the order, should the political order be to fire.
0:55:19 > 0:55:22I think we should publicly reiterate that our weapons are ready
0:55:22 > 0:55:25- for use and that they are targeted. - Yeah.
0:55:25 > 0:55:28I'm going to go round the room one by one on this,
0:55:28 > 0:55:31that if we get confirmation that they are launched
0:55:31 > 0:55:38and are targeted at London, do we say fire or do we say don't fire?
0:55:41 > 0:55:42I say don't fire.
0:55:44 > 0:55:46I would say fire.
0:55:47 > 0:55:51Well, the targeting that the UK chooses is military installations,
0:55:51 > 0:55:54it does not choose populations. I say fire.
0:55:54 > 0:55:55No. No, absolutely not.
0:55:55 > 0:55:58The whole point of having continuous at-sea deterrence is that
0:55:58 > 0:56:02we're not vulnerable. We've got a guaranteed second-strike capability.
0:56:02 > 0:56:06But if first strike is heading towards centres of population in the UK...
0:56:06 > 0:56:09And a decision to fire missiles from Trident submarines
0:56:09 > 0:56:11in the Atlantic, whether it's before or after,
0:56:11 > 0:56:13is not going to save those population centres.
0:56:13 > 0:56:15My answer to that question is no.
0:56:15 > 0:56:17No. Right. James.
0:56:19 > 0:56:23My answer to "do we retaliate" is yes.
0:56:23 > 0:56:26Given the...whole concept of deterrence,
0:56:26 > 0:56:31nuclear deterrence, is founded on the fear of retaliation, I think
0:56:31 > 0:56:37we certainly have to...give all the signals that we would retaliate.
0:56:37 > 0:56:39- You're dodging the question, actually.- I am. I am.
0:56:39 > 0:56:41- Can you give...- Because it's too horrible to contemplate.
0:56:41 > 0:56:44- Is it too difficult... - And for weeks I've tried to say
0:56:44 > 0:56:47- this is where we would end up, so I am...- I need your answer.- So...
0:56:47 > 0:56:50- I think deterrence... - I need to... I need to press you.
0:56:50 > 0:56:55OK, deterrence is based on a realistic pledge to retaliate.
0:56:55 > 0:56:57And so you would retaliate?
0:56:58 > 0:57:00I leave it at that.
0:57:00 > 0:57:02On the assumption that that deterrence has failed,
0:57:02 > 0:57:06on the assumption that millions of Brits are about to die,
0:57:06 > 0:57:11the choice that faces the British government is, do we pointlessly
0:57:11 > 0:57:16kill millions of Russians, our weapons having failed, or not?
0:57:16 > 0:57:20And the answer... In my mind, that's a no-brainer - you don't.
0:57:20 > 0:57:24- Pauline has confirmed that our missiles are not aimed at population centres.- Well, that's...
0:57:24 > 0:57:25They're aimed at military targets.
0:57:25 > 0:57:29I'm happy to take out a few tens of thousands of Russians but
0:57:29 > 0:57:34if we're talking about a massive Trident response, for no reason,
0:57:34 > 0:57:37given that we've failed to deter, then you don't do it.
0:57:37 > 0:57:41I'm not sure I can decide to use it without knowing that...
0:57:41 > 0:57:44- It's actually landed. - ..it's actually landed. - Can we have a yes or a no?
0:57:44 > 0:57:46Not until it landed.
0:57:47 > 0:57:50Who is in favour of giving instructions
0:57:50 > 0:57:54to our Trident commanders to fire, if launch is confirmed?
0:57:54 > 0:57:57Who would vote yes to instruct the Trident to fire?
0:58:04 > 0:58:05Three in favour.
0:58:07 > 0:58:12Who is in favour of NOT instructing the commanders to fire?
0:58:18 > 0:58:20Then the noes have it.