0:00:25 > 0:00:29Famously, the British weather is a national obsession.
0:00:31 > 0:00:33Could you give me a wind speed and direction, please?
0:00:33 > 0:00:36Five gusting seven from the west.
0:00:36 > 0:00:39For some, it provides vital information for the day ahead.
0:00:41 > 0:00:44..Cromarty, Forth.
0:00:44 > 0:00:48For millions of others, the forecast is a little piece of prediction
0:00:48 > 0:00:51that can make us smile...
0:00:51 > 0:00:52or frown...
0:00:52 > 0:00:55She heard that there's a hurricane on the way.
0:00:55 > 0:00:57If you're watching, don't worry, there isn't.
0:00:57 > 0:00:59This is Britain.
0:00:59 > 0:01:02This is what we normally call bad weather.
0:01:02 > 0:01:06Forecasting the weather is complicated.
0:01:06 > 0:01:10It may never be possible to make perfect predictions.
0:01:10 > 0:01:12It doesn't comb its hair and polish its shoes.
0:01:12 > 0:01:14It doesn't do what it's supposed to.
0:01:14 > 0:01:17British weather is very complicated.
0:01:17 > 0:01:21- The weather never stands still, you know.- I don't suppose it does.
0:01:21 > 0:01:23This is the story of the weather itself
0:01:23 > 0:01:27and about some of the people who have forecast it
0:01:27 > 0:01:29and those who depend on it.
0:01:41 > 0:01:43Here's a gale warning. Attention all shipping.
0:01:43 > 0:01:46The Met Office issued the following gale warning to shipping
0:01:46 > 0:01:48at 0450 GMT today.
0:01:49 > 0:01:51There have been weather forecasts
0:01:51 > 0:01:54since the earliest days of broadcasting.
0:01:54 > 0:01:57The shipping forecast began on radio in 1924...
0:01:57 > 0:02:01The gale is likely to be severe on the south-west coasts
0:02:01 > 0:02:04and in the English Channel.
0:02:04 > 0:02:08..followed in 1936 by the first television forecasts,
0:02:08 > 0:02:11a disembodied hand drawing isobars on a map.
0:02:13 > 0:02:17But the next major advance in presenting the weather
0:02:17 > 0:02:20was not brought about by new broadcasting technology.
0:02:20 > 0:02:23It was the weather itself that made it happen.
0:02:27 > 0:02:30Several key weather events at the beginning of the 1950s
0:02:30 > 0:02:32soaked into the national psyche.
0:02:32 > 0:02:37The Lynmouth flood disaster of 1952 took 34 lives
0:02:37 > 0:02:40and devastated a Devon community.
0:02:41 > 0:02:44The great storm swept away all our boats,
0:02:44 > 0:02:47and as we watched further we saw a row of cottages near the river
0:02:47 > 0:02:51and the flashes of lightning because it was dark by this time,
0:02:51 > 0:02:56in the flashes we saw these houses fold up like a pack of cards.
0:02:56 > 0:02:59They were swept out with the river with the agonising screams
0:02:59 > 0:03:03of some of the local inhabitants, who I knew very well.
0:03:03 > 0:03:07It began to be asked if the damage could have been prevented.
0:03:11 > 0:03:14The following year three million people attending
0:03:14 > 0:03:17the Queen's Coronation got a right royal soaking,
0:03:17 > 0:03:21something they could have been better prepared for with a little forewarning.
0:03:21 > 0:03:23Then it started to rain,
0:03:23 > 0:03:27but the thousands didn't give in. Somehow the wet and the cold
0:03:27 > 0:03:29made them even more determined to stay on,
0:03:29 > 0:03:33to hold on to the places they had so diligently sought out.
0:03:33 > 0:03:35The lines of newcomers never stopped.
0:03:35 > 0:03:37They all made the best of it.
0:03:37 > 0:03:39Up went the umbrellas, on went the raincoats,
0:03:39 > 0:03:43and under the shelter of blankets and newspapers they stuck it out.
0:03:46 > 0:03:49And most devastating of all, that same year,
0:03:49 > 0:03:52a freak storm tide hit the East coast of England
0:03:52 > 0:03:55resulting in some of the worst flooding the country has ever seen.
0:03:57 > 0:04:02January 31st this year, the east coast of England.
0:04:02 > 0:04:06The sea wall was breached in over 1,000 places, from the East Riding
0:04:06 > 0:04:08right down to Kent.
0:04:08 > 0:04:11More than 20,000 houses were flooded.
0:04:11 > 0:04:15The total cost of the damage - about £50 million.
0:04:17 > 0:04:21More than 300 people died, there was thousands of homes destroyed
0:04:21 > 0:04:24because of the weather, and no-one really saw it coming.
0:04:24 > 0:04:27They didn't see it coming in time, because as places were being flooded
0:04:27 > 0:04:30on the east coast, the phone lines were down,
0:04:30 > 0:04:33so no-one could even ring ahead to people further down the coast
0:04:33 > 0:04:35and say "There's a big storm coming, you want to get out."
0:04:41 > 0:04:45But very soon the whole nation was asking one question.
0:04:48 > 0:04:51In the face of growing criticism, the BBC responded
0:04:51 > 0:04:54with the help of the Met Office.
0:04:55 > 0:04:57Televisions were now part of life.
0:04:57 > 0:05:0120 million viewers had tuned in to watch the Coronation.
0:05:01 > 0:05:04It was the ideal medium for weather forecasts
0:05:04 > 0:05:06but they needed to be more engaging.
0:05:06 > 0:05:09What the weather needed was a face.
0:05:09 > 0:05:12Someone to tell the audience, night after night,
0:05:12 > 0:05:15what the weather was going to do the next day.
0:05:15 > 0:05:20In 1954, a year before the first news presenters appeared on screen,
0:05:20 > 0:05:25the BBC appointed 32-year-old George Cowling from the Met Office
0:05:25 > 0:05:28as their first weather forecaster.
0:05:34 > 0:05:38At 7.55pm on Monday, January 11th, 1954,
0:05:38 > 0:05:43Cowling prepared for his debut live broadcast.
0:05:43 > 0:05:45As a Met Office man, he had to travel across London
0:05:45 > 0:05:49to the Lime Grove studios with a large bundle of rolled-up
0:05:49 > 0:05:52weather charts that he'd drawn himself.
0:05:52 > 0:05:54With a long five minutes to fill,
0:05:54 > 0:05:56Cowling decided to ad lib a little.
0:05:58 > 0:06:03Something which didn't go down too well with the Met Office.
0:06:03 > 0:06:06George Cowling got into a little bit of hot water
0:06:06 > 0:06:08when he ended it by saying tomorrow would be a good day
0:06:08 > 0:06:12to hang out the washing. Nothing like this has ever been said
0:06:12 > 0:06:14on British TV before.
0:06:14 > 0:06:17It went down a storm with the national press
0:06:17 > 0:06:20but that didn't impress his employer.
0:06:20 > 0:06:25He was rebuked by the Met Office for stepping outside his brief.
0:06:25 > 0:06:28He was not doing what he was tasked to do, which was simply to give
0:06:28 > 0:06:31a synoptic picture of the weather over the next few hours.
0:06:39 > 0:06:42Cowling was not the first meteorologist
0:06:42 > 0:06:44to feel the wrath of the Met Office.
0:06:44 > 0:06:46Founded in 1854 by the Board of Trade,
0:06:46 > 0:06:49it was an organisation that prided itself
0:06:49 > 0:06:51on its scientific credentials.
0:06:51 > 0:06:55Its first director was Robert Fitzroy
0:06:55 > 0:06:58who was already famous. He'd come back from the voyage of the Beagle.
0:06:58 > 0:07:02He was Darwin's ship's commander on the Beagle,
0:07:02 > 0:07:05but he'd always been interested in weather.
0:07:05 > 0:07:09He felt that if you had a network of observers
0:07:09 > 0:07:11stationed around the coasts,
0:07:11 > 0:07:15you could track what we would now call weather systems,
0:07:15 > 0:07:16and he was right.
0:07:16 > 0:07:21Fitzroy began to imagine he could offer public weather forecasts.
0:07:21 > 0:07:28In 1861, he issues the first newspaper weather forecast,
0:07:28 > 0:07:31which as it happens was correct.
0:07:31 > 0:07:34This was 1st August, 1861, and he said -
0:07:34 > 0:07:37it was a very short bulletin, very vague, but he said -
0:07:37 > 0:07:41there would be a moderate westerly wind and it would be fine.
0:07:41 > 0:07:44He was absolutely right.
0:07:48 > 0:07:51Now in some ways, in retrospect, he should have stopped there.
0:07:51 > 0:07:54But Fitzroy didn't stop there.
0:07:54 > 0:07:58He continued issuing unauthorised newspaper forecasts
0:07:58 > 0:08:01which were wrong more often than they were right.
0:08:03 > 0:08:07They were hopelessly inaccurate. He didn't have enough observers.
0:08:07 > 0:08:11He didn't have enough data and he, sort of, rushed it.
0:08:15 > 0:08:19Fitzroy tried to limit the damage of getting weather predictions wrong
0:08:19 > 0:08:23by inventing the term "weather forecast".
0:08:23 > 0:08:27He hoped this emphasised that he was dealing in probabilities
0:08:27 > 0:08:29and not hard facts.
0:08:29 > 0:08:32But, for the Victorians, inaccurate weather forecasts
0:08:32 > 0:08:35were too much like the black art of prophecy.
0:08:35 > 0:08:38The newspaper weather forecasts were discontinued
0:08:38 > 0:08:42and Fitzroy's reputation was in tatters.
0:08:45 > 0:08:49Pressures of work, combined with this very public rebuke,
0:08:49 > 0:08:55and an underlying depressive illness, led to his suicide in 1865.
0:08:55 > 0:08:59The investigation into that suicide, it was a huge story
0:08:59 > 0:09:02and it was almost the Victorian equivalent
0:09:02 > 0:09:03of the death of David Kelly.
0:09:04 > 0:09:06DOOR CREAKS
0:09:08 > 0:09:12Fitzroy's death cast a shadow over weather forecasting.
0:09:12 > 0:09:16There were no more newspaper forecasts for another decade.
0:09:18 > 0:09:22And when they did begin again in 1875,
0:09:22 > 0:09:25the science of meteorology had begun a period of change
0:09:25 > 0:09:27that would revolutionise forecasting.
0:09:29 > 0:09:31The invention of isobars,
0:09:31 > 0:09:34which are lines of equal pressure drawn on weather maps,
0:09:34 > 0:09:37changed how weather was visualised.
0:09:37 > 0:09:41And in the 20th century, the introduction of wireless telegraphy
0:09:41 > 0:09:44made it easier to collect weather readings.
0:09:44 > 0:09:49This, for the first time, made it possible for data,
0:09:49 > 0:09:54collected in different places to be delivered to a central
0:09:54 > 0:09:57organising point, immediately.
0:09:57 > 0:10:02This was the key to, sort of, scientific weather forecasting.
0:10:04 > 0:10:09The science of meteorology continued to improve and, by the 1950s,
0:10:09 > 0:10:13more accurate weather readings meant more confident weather forecasts.
0:10:13 > 0:10:17The basis of our method is to look at the month of November
0:10:17 > 0:10:20that we've just had and then examine our records
0:10:20 > 0:10:23for the past 90 years to see if we can find a similar occasion.
0:10:23 > 0:10:26When we've located one, we look at the December which followed
0:10:26 > 0:10:29and this gives us one clue for the coming month.
0:10:31 > 0:10:34The Met Office was at the cutting edge of forecasting.
0:10:34 > 0:10:36An associated trough of low pressure will later move
0:10:36 > 0:10:41south-east across Scotland into Northern Ireland and England.
0:10:41 > 0:10:45It was the obvious body to supply the BBC with weather forecasts
0:10:45 > 0:10:48and the meteorologists to present them.
0:10:48 > 0:10:51Each one facing the daily challenge of correctly predicting
0:10:51 > 0:10:55what the weather will do and broadcasting that to the public.
0:10:58 > 0:11:00The cloud will soon start to thicken and then the rain,
0:11:00 > 0:11:03which is already over Northern Ireland, will move eastwards
0:11:03 > 0:11:06into Western Scotland and North West England and then to remain...
0:11:09 > 0:11:13For some, knowing with any certainly what the weather is about to do,
0:11:13 > 0:11:15would make life much easier.
0:11:18 > 0:11:19Tomorrow I'm getting married.
0:11:22 > 0:11:26And, I'm really, really hoping for good weather.
0:11:26 > 0:11:29But we can't really guarantee anything.
0:11:31 > 0:11:34I have been planning this wedding for a year
0:11:34 > 0:11:37so it's a long time in the making.
0:11:37 > 0:11:40And we've been checking the weather all week,
0:11:40 > 0:11:42everything stops for the weather forecast, really.
0:11:42 > 0:11:45Everyone has to be quiet, you know, no-one answers the phone.
0:11:45 > 0:11:48You just kind of sit there and take it all in.
0:11:54 > 0:11:59It looks like it's, kind of, a mixture of rain and sun,
0:11:59 > 0:12:01which, kind of, isn't that bad
0:12:01 > 0:12:04but it depends when it rains, I guess.
0:12:05 > 0:12:08My mum has been quite neurotic about the weather for the weekend.
0:12:08 > 0:12:11She has been checking it every opportunity.
0:12:11 > 0:12:15Erm, yeah, she's been a little bit over the top about it.
0:12:19 > 0:12:22At the moment, I can see the sun breaking through here
0:12:22 > 0:12:25which is lovely, casting some lovely shadows.
0:12:25 > 0:12:30A gentle breeze, the weeping willow is just moving beautifully.
0:12:30 > 0:12:34It does make a difference but the wedding will go ahead,
0:12:34 > 0:12:37come rain, come shine.
0:12:38 > 0:12:40THUNDER CRASHES
0:12:40 > 0:12:43Last night the weather took a turn for the worst.
0:12:43 > 0:12:46There was a massive clap of thunder, a flash of lightning
0:12:46 > 0:12:48and I was really, really scared.
0:12:48 > 0:12:51I was just like, "Oh, it's my wedding tomorrow
0:12:51 > 0:12:53"and I can just hear the rain pouring down."
0:12:55 > 0:12:58At the moment, it doesn't look too bad
0:12:58 > 0:13:01but it's that kind of weather that's threatening to rain a bit.
0:13:01 > 0:13:03It could go either way.
0:13:05 > 0:13:06Oh...
0:13:06 > 0:13:08Is it too early?
0:13:12 > 0:13:14Hurray!
0:13:21 > 0:13:24I was prepared for rain so it was the nicest surprise, ever,
0:13:24 > 0:13:27to have the sun on the big day.
0:13:31 > 0:13:32APPLAUSE
0:13:34 > 0:13:38To be able to look out of the windows where we were being married
0:13:38 > 0:13:41and just see the lakes and the grass
0:13:41 > 0:13:44and the gardens in such beautiful sunlight. It was amazing.
0:13:57 > 0:13:59This is BBC television...
0:13:59 > 0:14:02WIND HOWLS
0:14:07 > 0:14:11The wind was so cold that the sea froze on the Essex coast.
0:14:12 > 0:14:15The weather forecasters did not have much good news to impart
0:14:15 > 0:14:19at the beginning of the 1960s.
0:14:19 > 0:14:21By the time this blizzard had finally blown itself out,
0:14:21 > 0:14:25200 main roads were impassable and 95,000 miles of roads
0:14:25 > 0:14:26were snowbound.
0:14:26 > 0:14:30The big freeze of 1962-3 lasted three months
0:14:30 > 0:14:35and was the coldest winter since 1740.
0:14:35 > 0:14:37After five days battling, milkroundsmen
0:14:37 > 0:14:39had to take the day off from exhaustion
0:14:39 > 0:14:42and 15,000 London housewives went without milk.
0:14:49 > 0:14:52A new face was introduced to the weather line-up
0:14:52 > 0:14:54at the end of this cold snap.
0:14:54 > 0:14:57Hello there, and if you got wet today,
0:14:57 > 0:14:59well, you were decidedly unlucky.
0:14:59 > 0:15:02Bert Foord began his BBC career in 1963
0:15:02 > 0:15:05delivering simple, instructive forecasts.
0:15:05 > 0:15:08..the British Isles but the cold front fairly lethargic,
0:15:08 > 0:15:10quite slow-moving, eastwards.
0:15:10 > 0:15:14As a Met Office employee of 16 years standing,
0:15:14 > 0:15:17Bert Foord was more civil servant than television presenter.
0:15:17 > 0:15:20..just moving across south-eastern districts.
0:15:20 > 0:15:22When the Met Office was founded in the 1850s,
0:15:22 > 0:15:26it was very much part of the military wing of government.
0:15:26 > 0:15:30Met Office employees are effectively MoD employees
0:15:30 > 0:15:33and they hold ranks and pension arrangements equivalent
0:15:33 > 0:15:36to ranks and pension arrangements in the Armed Forces.
0:15:36 > 0:15:39..on this front, otherwise dry and fairly mild.
0:15:39 > 0:15:41Now over to the National summary chart.
0:15:41 > 0:15:44By now, the weather maps were professionally produced
0:15:44 > 0:15:47and the forecaster did not need his crayon.
0:15:47 > 0:15:50The weather was an established part of the television schedule
0:15:50 > 0:15:54and complaints about the weather, a part of the forecaster's life.
0:15:57 > 0:15:58Hello, weather centre?
0:15:59 > 0:16:03Well, Bert, I think it's the general opinion of most citizens
0:16:03 > 0:16:06that weather forecasting is not an exact science.
0:16:06 > 0:16:09Do people ring up and complain and threaten to sue
0:16:09 > 0:16:11and all the rest of it?
0:16:11 > 0:16:12Well, yes, certainly.
0:16:12 > 0:16:15We would expect to have the complaint put back to us
0:16:15 > 0:16:20and in fact, if only to explain the reason for the error.
0:16:27 > 0:16:32This was a decade of mind-blowing changes in the science of the skies.
0:16:33 > 0:16:35Computers arrived at the Met Office
0:16:35 > 0:16:39and now mathematical equations were used to make forecasts.
0:16:41 > 0:16:43It was computer-generated equations
0:16:43 > 0:16:47that enabled meteorologist Edward Lorenz to develop
0:16:47 > 0:16:50one of the big ideas of the 20th century.
0:16:50 > 0:16:54Chaos theory, which says that weather is totally unpredictable.
0:16:58 > 0:17:01The chaos theory, as applied to weather, you know,
0:17:01 > 0:17:04man stands on a stage, drops a golf ball,
0:17:04 > 0:17:06it lands in the same place,
0:17:06 > 0:17:09drops a piece of paper, it never lands in the same place,
0:17:09 > 0:17:11it flutters around.
0:17:11 > 0:17:14The science of meteorology is the piece of paper.
0:17:15 > 0:17:18Suddenly forecasters had to accept the idea
0:17:18 > 0:17:21that any imperfections in their weather data, however small,
0:17:21 > 0:17:25would eventually lead to huge errors down the line.
0:17:25 > 0:17:28Ultimately, what it meant is that no weather forecast
0:17:28 > 0:17:29can ever be perfect.
0:17:29 > 0:17:33Any error that we have in unusual conditions will always limit
0:17:33 > 0:17:37the accuracy of our forecasts, in the future.
0:17:37 > 0:17:40That's popularly known as this idea of a butterfly
0:17:40 > 0:17:43flapping its wings in Brazil causing a tornado in Texas.
0:17:43 > 0:17:45Five... Four... Three...
0:17:45 > 0:17:46Two... One...
0:17:46 > 0:17:49Zero!
0:17:50 > 0:17:53It wasn't the only new way of looking at the weather.
0:17:53 > 0:17:55The first weather satellites were launched,
0:17:55 > 0:17:58sending back images of the Earth's atmosphere
0:17:58 > 0:18:01with the weather visible in a new and exciting way.
0:18:01 > 0:18:04That was really important to meteorologists to get this
0:18:04 > 0:18:08very large, global overview of what was going on,
0:18:08 > 0:18:11but they'd only been able to see by plotting things like maps
0:18:11 > 0:18:14of isobars, or measurements from weather balloons to that point.
0:18:14 > 0:18:17These images were a revelation.
0:18:17 > 0:18:21Suddenly the entire world's weather was visible to the forecaster.
0:18:21 > 0:18:25Since we've had satellites, no-one has missed any tropical
0:18:25 > 0:18:29cyclones, any hurricanes over that period.
0:18:29 > 0:18:32Before if a tropical cyclone didn't hit land, we won't aware of it.
0:18:32 > 0:18:35If it didn't affect any shipping, we didn't know it existed.
0:18:35 > 0:18:37It enabled us to do much more detailed study,
0:18:37 > 0:18:40I suppose, in a way, the general public has perhaps been
0:18:40 > 0:18:44more aware of that global perspective, as well.
0:18:44 > 0:18:47# Where are the next of kin?
0:18:49 > 0:18:51# To the wayward wind... #
0:18:51 > 0:18:53The global perspective is one thing
0:18:53 > 0:18:58but weather is a local business and, in Britain, rain is never far away.
0:18:58 > 0:19:02For decades, the umbrella has been an essential piece of kit.
0:19:02 > 0:19:05So perhaps it's surprising how little we value
0:19:05 > 0:19:08this humble piece of weather proofing.
0:19:08 > 0:19:11There will be some showers, here and there developing.
0:19:11 > 0:19:14So far, they have been occurring in Western Scotland
0:19:14 > 0:19:16and parts of Ireland, too.
0:19:16 > 0:19:17They could occur in other districts.
0:19:21 > 0:19:23At London Transport's Lost Property Office,
0:19:23 > 0:19:27umbrellas have been filling the shelves for decades.
0:19:29 > 0:19:31If you've lost an individual item,
0:19:31 > 0:19:32you think there might be a few dozen,
0:19:32 > 0:19:37but we get on average between 1,100 to 1,300 items
0:19:37 > 0:19:38of property every day.
0:19:39 > 0:19:43That's, you know, 100 mobile phones every day.
0:19:43 > 0:19:48It's 300 books, bags, travel tickets, everyday.
0:19:48 > 0:19:51Last year we had just over 12,000 umbrellas came through to us.
0:19:55 > 0:19:58Every one that arrives here is labelled and stored
0:19:58 > 0:20:02in the vaults for three months, waiting to be claimed.
0:20:02 > 0:20:04When you had that spell of bad weather,
0:20:04 > 0:20:07it's really easy to tell within a space of a week,
0:20:07 > 0:20:10your umbrella stocks can go up by 1,000, quite easily.
0:20:10 > 0:20:13You can almost relate that back to the week or two weeks
0:20:13 > 0:20:14where the weather was inclement.
0:20:16 > 0:20:19Of the 12,000 umbrellas that arrive here annually,
0:20:19 > 0:20:23only about 300 are reunited with their original owners,
0:20:23 > 0:20:26the rest are sold, or donated to charity.
0:20:29 > 0:20:32You can pick what season it is, based on the type of property
0:20:32 > 0:20:35we have coming through. This summer was a perfect example.
0:20:35 > 0:20:40We had one of the largest heatwaves that London has had in a long time.
0:20:43 > 0:20:46We are preparing, right now, the beginning of autumn,
0:20:46 > 0:20:48for the onslaught of the gloves.
0:21:01 > 0:21:06By the 1970s, the weather forecast was in glorious Technicolor.
0:21:06 > 0:21:08Good afternoon, for most parts of the country,
0:21:08 > 0:21:10it's another rather cold day with showers.
0:21:10 > 0:21:13And Britain's first weather woman, Barbara Edwards,
0:21:13 > 0:21:15had arrived in front of the cameras.
0:21:15 > 0:21:19With the radio, one hasn't had to worry about what one's wearing,
0:21:19 > 0:21:20nobody sees you. This is quite a change.
0:21:20 > 0:21:23But you are giving your wardrobe some careful thought?
0:21:23 > 0:21:25Oh, I certainly am, yes.
0:21:25 > 0:21:29But her arrival was eclipsed by some other new kids on the block.
0:21:29 > 0:21:33The '70s saw an influx of new male weather forecasting talent.
0:21:33 > 0:21:35Amongst them were Bill Giles...
0:21:36 > 0:21:37Ian McCaskill...
0:21:38 > 0:21:40Hello, there you are.
0:21:40 > 0:21:41..and Michael Fish.
0:21:41 > 0:21:44There we are, I think that'll hold. Thank you very much.
0:21:44 > 0:21:46They soon became household names.
0:21:48 > 0:21:51For though each of them had served for many years in the backrooms
0:21:51 > 0:21:56of the Met Office, they all took to screen life with relish.
0:21:56 > 0:21:58Well, I said the weather is very changeable
0:21:58 > 0:22:01and one look at my weather chart will show you why.
0:22:01 > 0:22:03Good evening. A much quieter look to the weather,
0:22:03 > 0:22:05especially after the gales of last night.
0:22:05 > 0:22:08Indeed, I think most places will probably have a fine and dry night,
0:22:08 > 0:22:09if rather a chilly one.
0:22:09 > 0:22:12There will be one or two showers coming through,
0:22:12 > 0:22:14chiefly in north-western parts.
0:22:14 > 0:22:17Between them, they had more front than the weather map.
0:22:17 > 0:22:21And it was the weather map that was next in line for a makeover.
0:22:21 > 0:22:24As the day goes on, I think you're going to find these showers
0:22:24 > 0:22:25will tend to become heavy...
0:22:25 > 0:22:29Zippy new magnetic symbols came some new technical challenges.
0:22:29 > 0:22:31..fairly thundery with some...
0:22:31 > 0:22:33Oh, dear, these BLEEP! Let's do it again.
0:22:33 > 0:22:36What I think is likely to happen, is these frontal systems...
0:22:36 > 0:22:38These front men of weather science appeared night after night
0:22:38 > 0:22:40on prime time television.
0:22:40 > 0:22:44Unsurprisingly, their jumpers, ties and facial hair
0:22:44 > 0:22:47became the stuff of everyday gossip.
0:22:47 > 0:22:50People would tune into the BBC weather forecast
0:22:50 > 0:22:53to see what jumper Michael Fish was wearing.
0:22:53 > 0:22:56It seemed frivolous, you know.
0:22:56 > 0:23:01It seemed a kind of jokey way of absolving yourself
0:23:01 > 0:23:04the fact that your forecast wasn't always right.
0:23:04 > 0:23:07"It doesn't matter because I'm a joker wearing a nice jumper."
0:23:07 > 0:23:11But it was a weather event that really made them news.
0:23:11 > 0:23:15The devastating drought of 1976 seared the weather
0:23:15 > 0:23:17into the nation's consciousness.
0:23:17 > 0:23:20This country is now in one of the worst periods of drought
0:23:20 > 0:23:23since records began 200 years ago.
0:23:23 > 0:23:26Lasting from May until August,
0:23:26 > 0:23:29the drought put the country into a state of emergency.
0:23:29 > 0:23:33People needed the forecast in a way they never had before.
0:23:39 > 0:23:42The anticyclone there looks fairly well anchored now
0:23:42 > 0:23:45and that's going to continue to keep the dry,
0:23:45 > 0:23:47warm weather running in southern parts of the country.
0:23:59 > 0:24:03We all know that our taste in food depends upon the weather.
0:24:07 > 0:24:11For some, a long, hot summer is good for business.
0:24:15 > 0:24:17Luca's ice cream parlour in Musselburgh,
0:24:17 > 0:24:20on the east coast of Scotland, has been counting on good weather
0:24:20 > 0:24:23since 1908.
0:24:24 > 0:24:26I watch the weather forecast every single morning
0:24:26 > 0:24:29before I come to work. I'm up at six in the morning
0:24:29 > 0:24:31and that's the first thing I do,
0:24:31 > 0:24:34TV on, weather forecast so that I've enough idea
0:24:34 > 0:24:37what my day is going to be like and what uniforms we are going to need.
0:24:41 > 0:24:44It gives us a rough idea of how busy we expect we're going to be.
0:24:44 > 0:24:46We can be in here for nine hours
0:24:46 > 0:24:50and never see the end of the queue till we walk past it going home.
0:24:50 > 0:24:53The queues are frightening, they're really frightening.
0:25:00 > 0:25:03Luca's manufacture their own ice cream.
0:25:03 > 0:25:08Each 100 gallon batch contains milk, sugar, double cream
0:25:08 > 0:25:10and 25kgs of butter.
0:25:12 > 0:25:16As far as flavours go, the latest trend is Nutella ice cream.
0:25:16 > 0:25:19We used to sell a lot of coffee but for some reason,
0:25:19 > 0:25:23nobody wants coffee ice cream now or there's very little.
0:25:23 > 0:25:25Nutella, mint chocolate chip
0:25:25 > 0:25:27and we do another one called toffee fudgy wudgy,
0:25:27 > 0:25:32which is probably one of our best sellers, not to forget the sorbets.
0:25:32 > 0:25:36Irn Bru sorbet is also a Scottish thing.
0:25:38 > 0:25:41So at nine o'clock this morning, I think,
0:25:41 > 0:25:43the cloud will be in this position
0:25:43 > 0:25:45with just some little bits of fine rain,
0:25:45 > 0:25:48a bit of sea fog and a bit of cloud.
0:25:48 > 0:25:5012 o'clock, looking like that.
0:25:50 > 0:25:53Three o'clock in the afternoon, sweltering hot with patchy cloud.
0:25:53 > 0:25:57Six o'clock, an isolated thunderstorm as there was yesterday.
0:25:57 > 0:25:59# Pump up the volume Pump up the volume
0:25:59 > 0:26:02# Pump up the volume Dance, dance... #
0:26:02 > 0:26:06Into the 1980s, television forecasts embraced the computer age.
0:26:07 > 0:26:10Now it's time to get the mouse out of its cage. This is the mouse.
0:26:10 > 0:26:12It's a piece of equipment which allows me
0:26:12 > 0:26:15to move a pointer around the screen
0:26:15 > 0:26:17and select any piece of information I want to
0:26:17 > 0:26:20and put it anywhere on my map.
0:26:20 > 0:26:24It was also the decade that saw the final erosion of any barrier
0:26:24 > 0:26:26between the forecasters and their audience.
0:26:26 > 0:26:30Here they come now, wet, windy and a deep depression, north eastern.
0:26:30 > 0:26:33CHEERING AND APPLAUSE
0:26:39 > 0:26:42By now they were public property.
0:26:43 > 0:26:46So there was suddenly this flowering of people coming
0:26:46 > 0:26:49out from the little niches, in their little boxes.
0:26:51 > 0:26:54# I'm singing in the rain... #
0:26:54 > 0:26:57You suddenly thought, "Actually they are humans.
0:26:57 > 0:26:59"They've got legs, they're not just from the waist up.
0:26:59 > 0:27:01The weather forecasters had become so big,
0:27:01 > 0:27:04they even inspired some tribute acts.
0:27:04 > 0:27:06LAUGHTER
0:27:06 > 0:27:07No...
0:27:07 > 0:27:10Yes. What, yeah, mm.
0:27:10 > 0:27:12It's going to be very nippy!
0:27:12 > 0:27:14Yes, Oh, yes.
0:27:14 > 0:27:16Got to wrap up warm, mmm, yeah.
0:27:16 > 0:27:19Plenty of woollies, you can't be too...
0:27:19 > 0:27:21I say, you can't be too careful!
0:27:21 > 0:27:24It's getting colder these days, don't you think?
0:27:24 > 0:27:27Much colder, yes. Well, bye-bye!
0:27:27 > 0:27:28# Here's the weather man
0:27:28 > 0:27:29# John Kettley is a weather man
0:27:29 > 0:27:31# A weather man
0:27:31 > 0:27:33# John Kettley is a weather man
0:27:33 > 0:27:34# And so is Michael Fish!
0:27:34 > 0:27:36# And so is Billy Giles!
0:27:36 > 0:27:40# And so is Ian McCaskill!
0:27:40 > 0:27:43..and these little ripples, far to the west of us, here.
0:27:43 > 0:27:45# It's windy and coldish
0:27:45 > 0:27:47# I wish, I wish
0:27:47 > 0:27:50# Because I like Michael Fish
0:27:50 > 0:27:52# I wish, I wish, I wish, I wish! #
0:27:54 > 0:27:57APPLAUSE
0:27:57 > 0:28:00- How does it feel to be a hunk? - Uh, wonderful, wonderful.
0:28:00 > 0:28:02But just as weather presenters were getting more fun,
0:28:02 > 0:28:06the weather itself was taking a sinister turn.
0:28:06 > 0:28:10The disturbance in the equilibrium of the Antarctic's atmosphere
0:28:10 > 0:28:13is almost certainly caused by human activity.
0:28:13 > 0:28:15There were lots of ideas around
0:28:15 > 0:28:19about ways in which man was affecting the environment,
0:28:19 > 0:28:23some of that started in the '70s, but certainly in the '80s
0:28:23 > 0:28:26they became very clear in the public consciousness,
0:28:26 > 0:28:29with things like ozone depletion and acid rain.
0:28:29 > 0:28:32The major cause of acid rain is sulphur dioxide,
0:28:32 > 0:28:34it can kill trees and poison lakes.
0:28:36 > 0:28:40And worse, nuclear fallout felt to many like a genuine threat.
0:28:40 > 0:28:42"When the wind blows" was a phrase
0:28:42 > 0:28:45that took on a whole new, dark meaning.
0:28:45 > 0:28:48The idea took hold that human activity
0:28:48 > 0:28:50might be destroying the planet.
0:28:50 > 0:28:53Just as the weather forecasters got less serious,
0:28:53 > 0:28:57the weather itself seemed to be getting darker and more threatening.
0:28:57 > 0:29:01No-one knew it, but a storm was brewing.
0:29:02 > 0:29:03Good afternoon to you.
0:29:03 > 0:29:05Earlier on today, apparently a woman rung the BBC
0:29:05 > 0:29:08and said she heard that there was a hurricane on the way.
0:29:08 > 0:29:10Well, if you're watching, don't worry, there isn't.
0:29:10 > 0:29:14Michael Fish's notorious "no hurricane" forecast
0:29:14 > 0:29:17is still remembered 25 years on.
0:29:17 > 0:29:19Not because he was factually incorrect,
0:29:19 > 0:29:21he wasn't, there was no hurricane,
0:29:21 > 0:29:25this was a very surprising storm that came up from the Bay of Biscay
0:29:25 > 0:29:27which hadn't been forecast.
0:29:27 > 0:29:31His misdemeanour was his tone of voice because it came across
0:29:31 > 0:29:36as an expert talking down to the little people, the lay people.
0:29:36 > 0:29:40And the fact that he was then, as it were,
0:29:40 > 0:29:45proved wrong by the weather that night showed that the weather is,
0:29:45 > 0:29:47as it were, not on the side of the experts,
0:29:47 > 0:29:51it's on the side of the lay people. You know, we got him.
0:29:56 > 0:29:58Or had we?
0:29:58 > 0:30:01The forecasters closed ranks and stood firm on the fact
0:30:01 > 0:30:05that the weather forecast had been technically correct.
0:30:05 > 0:30:07Experts today defended the Met Office.
0:30:07 > 0:30:09They said it wasn't really their fault
0:30:09 > 0:30:11they didn't see what was coming.
0:30:11 > 0:30:13This type of depression is notoriously difficult
0:30:13 > 0:30:15to forecast accurately.
0:30:15 > 0:30:18If you look at that agonising performance by poor Ian McCaskill
0:30:18 > 0:30:23the following day...he was...
0:30:23 > 0:30:26unable to say, "We got it completely wrong."
0:30:26 > 0:30:33But under the most intense interrogation, he nearly broke.
0:30:33 > 0:30:35Are you weathermen just shrugging your shoulders
0:30:35 > 0:30:36- as a result of all this?- No.
0:30:36 > 0:30:39Or is there in inquest going on down there at the weather centre?
0:30:39 > 0:30:42At this very minute, and it will be for the next several months,
0:30:42 > 0:30:43we are getting better and better.
0:30:43 > 0:30:46This one just stronger than we thought.
0:30:46 > 0:30:47No kidding.
0:30:47 > 0:30:50I mean, if you can't forecast the worst storms for several centuries
0:30:50 > 0:30:53three hours before they happen, what are you doing?
0:30:55 > 0:30:58And now the Shipping Forecast issued by the Met Office on behalf of
0:30:58 > 0:31:00the Maritime and Coastguard Agency.
0:31:00 > 0:31:04There are warning of gales in Fitzroy, Shannon and Rockall.
0:31:07 > 0:31:11Well, even though Michael Fish did say that there was going to be strong
0:31:11 > 0:31:15winds on their way, if you'd been listening to the Shipping Forecast
0:31:15 > 0:31:19on that night in October 1987, you'd have had a much clearer picture.
0:31:19 > 0:31:24An unambiguous gale warning, severe gale warning for southern England.
0:31:24 > 0:31:28There are warnings of gales in Thames, Dover, Wight, Portland,
0:31:28 > 0:31:30Plymouth, Biscay, Fitzroy,
0:31:30 > 0:31:35Sole, Lundy, Fastnet, Irish Sea, Shannon...
0:31:35 > 0:31:38The Shipping Forecast has remained almost exactly the same
0:31:38 > 0:31:43since the Met Office prepared the first one back in 1924,
0:31:43 > 0:31:46although there is one notable exception.
0:31:46 > 0:31:51In 2002, the sea area Finisterre was renamed Fitzroy
0:31:51 > 0:31:56in belated recognition of Robert Fitzroy's founding work at the Met Office.
0:31:56 > 0:31:59Shannon west or northwest, 4 or 5,
0:31:59 > 0:32:02becoming cyclonic gale 8 to storm 10 later.
0:32:02 > 0:32:07The forecast, which has a word limit of 350 words
0:32:07 > 0:32:13is broadcast everyday on Radio 4 long wave at 00:48, 05:20,
0:32:13 > 0:32:1712:01 and 17:54.
0:32:21 > 0:32:25And it has this incredible brevity, incredible concision.
0:32:25 > 0:32:30Every term used, such as imminently, later, good,
0:32:30 > 0:32:33have a absolutely precise definition.
0:32:33 > 0:32:36And once you've learnt what those definitions are,
0:32:36 > 0:32:41this is the most calibrated way of listening to the weather information.
0:32:43 > 0:32:47Viking. North Utsire.
0:32:47 > 0:32:50South Utsire. Forties.
0:32:50 > 0:32:52Cromarty. Forth.
0:32:52 > 0:32:53There's a poetry about it,
0:32:53 > 0:32:55there's a real sense of history about it,
0:32:55 > 0:32:57the fact that it's so unchanging
0:32:57 > 0:32:59and this iron horse of the broadcasting schedule,
0:32:59 > 0:33:02- it's always there. - Tyne. Dogger.
0:33:02 > 0:33:03Fisher. German Bight.
0:33:03 > 0:33:06Most people who listen to the Shipping Forecast
0:33:06 > 0:33:09have no need of it, but it is this kind of national lullaby,
0:33:09 > 0:33:13it's a walk around the perimeter of the British Isles before bedtime.
0:33:13 > 0:33:16Dover. Wight.
0:33:16 > 0:33:18Portland. Plymouth.
0:33:18 > 0:33:21Biscay. Trafalgar.
0:33:21 > 0:33:26And so we go on that tour and it stabilises us,
0:33:26 > 0:33:28but also, of course, it's a tour
0:33:28 > 0:33:32of places which feel to us dark and unknown,
0:33:32 > 0:33:38and so again we have that extraordinary fusion of a ritual
0:33:38 > 0:33:40that keeps us calm.
0:33:40 > 0:33:45It's a lullaby, but at the same time it reminds us of what is unknowable
0:33:45 > 0:33:50and frightening and the dark waves which might toss up anything.
0:33:50 > 0:33:53Fitzroy. Sole.
0:33:53 > 0:33:57Lundy. Fastnet.
0:33:57 > 0:34:00Irish Sea. Shannon.
0:34:00 > 0:34:02Rockall. Malin.
0:34:02 > 0:34:05The Shipping Forecast is there to save lives,
0:34:05 > 0:34:06and that's why it has to be there at
0:34:06 > 0:34:08the same time every day, read in the same way
0:34:08 > 0:34:10and can't be shifted in the schedule,
0:34:10 > 0:34:13so they've really got to be specific and get it right,
0:34:13 > 0:34:17and it's got to be heard in a way that people in a wheelhouse
0:34:17 > 0:34:19being washed over by massive waves can still hear it coming
0:34:19 > 0:34:21through on the crackly radio.
0:34:21 > 0:34:23- RADIO TRANSMISSION:- All stations. All stations.
0:34:23 > 0:34:28Occasional rain or drizzles for a time. Visibility moderate, good.
0:34:28 > 0:34:31Occasionally poor for a time.
0:34:31 > 0:34:34The Shipping Forecast is still vital for many fishermen
0:34:34 > 0:34:35up and down the country.
0:34:36 > 0:34:39Tim Courtis is a Cornish scalloper.
0:34:39 > 0:34:43He needs to spend 200 days at sea every year
0:34:43 > 0:34:44if he's to make ends meet.
0:34:51 > 0:34:55The scalloping is very weather dependant, we need fine weather.
0:34:55 > 0:34:59If there's a lot of swell, then out capture rate goes down by half.
0:34:59 > 0:35:04Anything over force four, like onshore wind, then we can't go,
0:35:04 > 0:35:09it's the swell in the water means the dredges are sort of jumping up
0:35:09 > 0:35:12and down on the bottom and we're just wasting fuel then.
0:35:12 > 0:35:15So it's uneconomic to go, so we work as hard as we can
0:35:15 > 0:35:18when the weather's fine and stay in when it's poor.
0:35:24 > 0:35:27For Tim, the shipping forecast is essential to his business.
0:35:29 > 0:35:32It can make the difference between a day in the harbour...
0:35:34 > 0:35:37..or a dawn heading out into open waters.
0:35:42 > 0:35:45We check the weather every day, multiple times a day,
0:35:45 > 0:35:50and we listen to the coastguard reports, we access the internet,
0:35:50 > 0:35:53television on the boat.
0:35:53 > 0:35:56Usually we know the day before whether we're going the next day
0:35:56 > 0:36:00and then it's a final visual check in the morning before we go.
0:36:00 > 0:36:02Viking. North Utsire. South Utsire.
0:36:02 > 0:36:06Southeast, 4 or 5, increasing 6 or 7.
0:36:06 > 0:36:10Perhaps gale 8 later then veering south-westerly 5 or 6.
0:36:10 > 0:36:13Occasional rain, moderate or good. Occasionally poor.
0:36:15 > 0:36:18Bad weather can do more than stop boats going out.
0:36:19 > 0:36:21Storms have nearly destroyed Polperro Harbour
0:36:21 > 0:36:23which Tim works out of.
0:36:25 > 0:36:28Polperro is tucked away on the Cornish coast.
0:36:30 > 0:36:33Its very existence is due to the weather, partially shielded from
0:36:33 > 0:36:36the prevailing south westerly winds.
0:36:36 > 0:36:40The community was and still is dependent on the sea.
0:36:47 > 0:36:50Acting harbour master Olly Puckey
0:36:50 > 0:36:52keeps a constant watch on the weather.
0:36:54 > 0:37:00Everybody involved with the sea listens to the weather forecast.
0:37:00 > 0:37:04It's like everything stops, "The weather's on, drop everything
0:37:04 > 0:37:05"and go and listen to it."
0:37:07 > 0:37:10A storm gate protects the harbour
0:37:10 > 0:37:13so when the forecast predicts bad weather, the community can act.
0:37:16 > 0:37:18This harbour is very exposed
0:37:18 > 0:37:22and reliant on the storm gate we have here.
0:37:25 > 0:37:28It's surprising how quickly the sea can build up here.
0:37:29 > 0:37:33In the middle of the night if the wind does pick up,
0:37:33 > 0:37:36somebody is there on hand to save the harbour.
0:37:41 > 0:37:44The satellite picture sets the scene, it shows the British Isles,
0:37:44 > 0:37:47in fact, it's underneath there somewhere, a lot of cloud,
0:37:47 > 0:37:49and indeed a lot of rain too to the south,
0:37:49 > 0:37:51another band of wet weather further north as well.
0:37:53 > 0:37:57Despite a freezing start, the 1990s were a mild decade
0:37:57 > 0:38:00with winters one degree warmer on average
0:38:00 > 0:38:03than the winters of the 1960s.
0:38:03 > 0:38:06The Met Office opened a centre for research into the earth's climate
0:38:06 > 0:38:11just as questions about possible climate change were being raised.
0:38:11 > 0:38:15In the coming years, sales of sun cream would go through the roof
0:38:15 > 0:38:19and worries about global warming engulf previous concerns
0:38:19 > 0:38:22about acid rain and the ozone layer.
0:38:22 > 0:38:24It's very clear that climate is changing
0:38:24 > 0:38:29and that we have a lot of confidence that a lot of that change
0:38:29 > 0:38:33is to do with the release of greenhouse gasses by society.
0:38:33 > 0:38:37What's difficult to know is exactly how they'll change climate
0:38:37 > 0:38:41and weather on very small scales that really affect people.
0:38:42 > 0:38:45Chaos theory had taught meteorologists
0:38:45 > 0:38:48that the weather was never going to be 100% predictable.
0:38:48 > 0:38:52Now climate change brought another idea of unpredictability -
0:38:52 > 0:38:56that the weather might change in all sorts of unknowable ways.
0:38:56 > 0:38:58South westerly winds.
0:38:58 > 0:39:01These are already into the West Country, they'll be pushing
0:39:01 > 0:39:05their way across bringing clearer weather and colder weather too.
0:39:05 > 0:39:08Someone who has been keeping an eye on the volatility of weather
0:39:08 > 0:39:10is wine producer Bob Lindo.
0:39:10 > 0:39:13He has been growing grapes for the past 14 years
0:39:13 > 0:39:16on the lush slopes of his Cornish vineyard.
0:39:16 > 0:39:21Vineyards springing up is a sign of global warming in itself,
0:39:21 > 0:39:24there's no doubt about it. There is no doubt about it.
0:39:24 > 0:39:27I can tell you that it's a polytunnel warmer here than it was
0:39:27 > 0:39:30when we started, cos when we started we had polytunnels.
0:39:30 > 0:39:34I can be more than anecdotal, we've analysed the weather data
0:39:34 > 0:39:40and we compiled a ten-year rolling average of temperatures
0:39:40 > 0:39:44over ten years and there's a definite increase over ten years.
0:39:44 > 0:39:47And it has been for 20 years.
0:39:47 > 0:39:51It's not open to debate, those figures are recorded
0:39:51 > 0:39:56and it's the same everywhere you look in Britain.
0:39:56 > 0:40:00But it's still a challenge to grow grapes in the British climate.
0:40:00 > 0:40:03I don't think I'm ever not checking them over, really.
0:40:04 > 0:40:07Cos if we get a late frost in Eastertime,
0:40:07 > 0:40:09that wipes a whole year out.
0:40:09 > 0:40:13Only two days ago the forecast was wall-to-wall sunshine
0:40:13 > 0:40:15and suddenly they started to talk about it turning colder
0:40:15 > 0:40:18and then they start to talk about hints of frost
0:40:18 > 0:40:20and then you see on the weather pictures
0:40:20 > 0:40:22that it's starting to get light winds over the west here,
0:40:22 > 0:40:23so we could get a night frost.
0:40:23 > 0:40:26If you get a night frost, that's the end of the ripening.
0:40:26 > 0:40:29You can still pick the grapes if you pick them all straightaway,
0:40:29 > 0:40:31but you can't ripe them any more without the leaves.
0:40:31 > 0:40:33The leaves are the sugar factory.
0:40:33 > 0:40:38Bob has learned to encourage extra leaves to grow around the grapes
0:40:38 > 0:40:41which act as a blanket and allow the fruit to ripen.
0:40:41 > 0:40:43We tried all sorts of ways to conquer the weather
0:40:43 > 0:40:46and in the end you tend to try and live with it,
0:40:46 > 0:40:49for example, with frost, we started early on, we got up at night
0:40:49 > 0:40:51and lit straw bales to try and keep the frost away.
0:40:51 > 0:40:53That didn't work.
0:40:53 > 0:40:56And then people will invent magic sprays and you try them
0:40:56 > 0:40:57and then they don't work.
0:40:57 > 0:41:02And then we actually bought a machine, it was like a flame thrower
0:41:02 > 0:41:07that put round a 100 foot jet, a 100m jet of hot air, that didn't work.
0:41:07 > 0:41:08None of these things really work.
0:41:08 > 0:41:10It's better to try and go with the weather,
0:41:10 > 0:41:13with nature if you like, than it is to try and beat it.
0:41:15 > 0:41:18The weather really influences the quantity
0:41:18 > 0:41:20that we're going to get really,
0:41:20 > 0:41:23that's the main effect for the weather.
0:41:23 > 0:41:26In terms of the flavours, really for the vines, even when it's warm,
0:41:26 > 0:41:29we think it's warm, it's still very cold for the vine,
0:41:29 > 0:41:32so we still always get these really light delicate English flavours
0:41:32 > 0:41:35that you associate with England like strawberries,
0:41:35 > 0:41:38raspberries, gooseberries, elderflowers, pears, apples,
0:41:38 > 0:41:40you always get those flavours
0:41:40 > 0:41:42because it's always cold for the vines.
0:41:47 > 0:41:49For this morning, then,
0:41:49 > 0:41:52our band of rain that we've just seen coming in to the west
0:41:52 > 0:41:54will steadily start to push over towards the east.
0:41:56 > 0:41:59The new millennium saw the beginning of weather that seemed
0:41:59 > 0:42:02difficult to categorize.
0:42:02 > 0:42:08There were floods, droughts and even a tornado.
0:42:08 > 0:42:12The damage is extreme and localised, dozens of streets,
0:42:12 > 0:42:18and speeds reaching 130mph. Little could withstand such power.
0:42:19 > 0:42:24Erratic weather was matched by some unusual forecasts when in 2005,
0:42:24 > 0:42:28Jeremy Paxman was told to read the weather at the end of Newsnight.
0:42:28 > 0:42:30Here it is, shorn of the usual folksy nonsense
0:42:30 > 0:42:34about clouds bubbling up and advice about wearing woolly socks.
0:42:34 > 0:42:37Eastern parts will mainly avoid the rain except for those that don't.
0:42:37 > 0:42:40And there will be bright or sunny intervals.
0:42:40 > 0:42:42Western areas will be cloudy with rain
0:42:42 > 0:42:44except in those places that don't have rain.
0:42:44 > 0:42:46Temperatures will be near normal.
0:42:48 > 0:42:51But the forecasts on Newsnight were soon forgotten
0:42:51 > 0:42:55when the BBC proudly unveiled their new look weather map,
0:42:55 > 0:42:58designed to cope with the vagaries of the ever-changing weather.
0:42:58 > 0:43:01Fantastic new graphics, just a shame it's the same old weather.
0:43:01 > 0:43:03The colder air coming in behind this thicker cloud
0:43:03 > 0:43:06that's in the south, it's giving some light and patchy rain,
0:43:06 > 0:43:08it's just nudging its way towards the southwest.
0:43:08 > 0:43:11Here's the clearer skies, you can see the change in colour,
0:43:11 > 0:43:14that's clearer skies, and with light winds it's going to be really cold.
0:43:14 > 0:43:15As we come closer in,
0:43:15 > 0:43:18this cloud in the south is giving a few spots of rain.
0:43:18 > 0:43:22The new three dimensional animated map was record breaking -
0:43:22 > 0:43:25it cost over £1 million to produce
0:43:25 > 0:43:29and it drew 400,000 complaints as soon as it appeared.
0:43:30 > 0:43:33There seems to be nowhere between Norwich and Manchester,
0:43:33 > 0:43:36it's like the whole of middle England doesn't exist.
0:43:36 > 0:43:38The new format looks rather like a poor video game
0:43:38 > 0:43:41superimposed on a coffee-stained dishcloth.
0:43:41 > 0:43:44I don't like the map very much, I think it looks like
0:43:44 > 0:43:47Weetabix has been left in the milk too long.
0:43:47 > 0:43:49Not everyone disliked the map,
0:43:49 > 0:43:53but complaints rained down about the camera swooping across the country,
0:43:53 > 0:43:56about the lack of place names,
0:43:56 > 0:43:59in fact about every aspect of the new visuals.
0:43:59 > 0:44:04The viewing public is very quick to complain and take notice
0:44:04 > 0:44:09of any kind of change in how the weather is presented.
0:44:09 > 0:44:13It's a very comforting ritual, an evening ritual,
0:44:13 > 0:44:16and people are very upset when this ritual is changed.
0:44:16 > 0:44:19That's it from me.
0:44:19 > 0:44:21I think it's a collective ownership of the way that,
0:44:21 > 0:44:24and as a result, we feel like we've got a collective ownership
0:44:24 > 0:44:26of the weather forecast as well.
0:44:26 > 0:44:29But the changes were not just superficial,
0:44:29 > 0:44:33one of them in particular appeared to some to be politically motivated.
0:44:49 > 0:44:51The map was tilted away from the viewer,
0:44:51 > 0:44:56making Scotland look about ten times smaller than England and Wales,
0:44:56 > 0:44:58when in fact it's half the size.
0:44:58 > 0:45:02Angus Brendan MacNeil, the SNP MP for the Western Isles
0:45:02 > 0:45:05raised questions in the House of Commons,
0:45:05 > 0:45:09saying that this was... That if it had been tilted the other way...
0:45:09 > 0:45:13then Barra would look larger than London.
0:45:13 > 0:45:16A fortnight after the rebranded weather had appeared
0:45:16 > 0:45:19the BBC bowed to pressure and undid some of the changes.
0:45:19 > 0:45:24Most significantly, it gave Scotland its landmass back.
0:45:24 > 0:45:27Fingers crossed for a few sunny spells towards the southeast.
0:45:27 > 0:45:31And here then we're looking at a top temperature of 21 or 22.
0:45:34 > 0:45:37But forecasting had moved on and the map had to keep up.
0:45:42 > 0:45:46These days, the BBC Weather Centre meteorologists have cutting-edge
0:45:46 > 0:45:50technology to help them compile forecasts for the days ahead.
0:45:50 > 0:45:52It's an incredibly complex process.
0:45:52 > 0:45:55You take millions of observations from around the world,
0:45:55 > 0:45:57put that into a supercomputer
0:45:57 > 0:46:00which has got more than a million lines of code,
0:46:00 > 0:46:02doing trillions of calculations
0:46:02 > 0:46:04and with all of that, you churn out the forecast
0:46:04 > 0:46:08that you see on the television. Ultimately that is the end result.
0:46:09 > 0:46:12Duty meteorologist Laura Gilchrist has Met Office technology
0:46:12 > 0:46:16at her fingertips to help her prepare the television weather maps.
0:46:16 > 0:46:21Here is my Met Office computer which I can use to view
0:46:21 > 0:46:23weather observations from all around the globe.
0:46:23 > 0:46:26At the moment, I'm showing a map of the UK, as you can see,
0:46:26 > 0:46:29and it has overlaid the visible satellite imagery
0:46:29 > 0:46:31which we can receive from space,
0:46:31 > 0:46:34this is how it would look to people on the International Space Station,
0:46:34 > 0:46:36so we can see a lot of cloud over here.
0:46:36 > 0:46:41Over the top is radar, which is rainfall.
0:46:41 > 0:46:44And basically that's showing this rain is what we had last night,
0:46:44 > 0:46:47that's clearing away. There's a few showers around,
0:46:47 > 0:46:50but both the radar and the satellite is showing me right now
0:46:50 > 0:46:52is that there's a good deal or really nice weather
0:46:52 > 0:46:54down in the southwest at the moment which is going to move
0:46:54 > 0:46:56across this afternoon and give us quite a nice day.
0:46:58 > 0:47:02The most recent IBM computer they had installed
0:47:02 > 0:47:06can process 125 billion pieces of information per second.
0:47:06 > 0:47:11That's more than there are human beings on the planet every second.
0:47:11 > 0:47:14Super computers have done what humans alone could never do.
0:47:14 > 0:47:17A four-day forecast today is as accurate as
0:47:17 > 0:47:20a one-day forecast 30 years ago.
0:47:20 > 0:47:24In pre-computer days, there was one meteorologist who,
0:47:24 > 0:47:25as almost as a joke,
0:47:25 > 0:47:30calculated that it would require 64,000 people working simultaneously
0:47:30 > 0:47:34on the data to produce an accurate weather forecast.
0:47:37 > 0:47:39Even with all this advanced technology,
0:47:39 > 0:47:42the weather can still evade the forecaster.
0:47:46 > 0:47:49So, remember that barbecue summer we were told to expect?
0:47:49 > 0:47:51Well, guess what? It's not going to happen.
0:47:51 > 0:47:54I'm fact, the Met Office says it never actually promised us one
0:47:54 > 0:47:57in the first place, they just said we were odds-on for hot weather.
0:47:57 > 0:48:02Welcome to the barbecue summer at Keswick in the Lake District.
0:48:02 > 0:48:08It remains a very imprecise, very inexact science,
0:48:08 > 0:48:10so that when surprising events happen,
0:48:10 > 0:48:14as happened in 2012, when a drought that had been predicted
0:48:14 > 0:48:17to last all summer was immediately
0:48:17 > 0:48:19followed by the heaviest rains on record,
0:48:19 > 0:48:24this is beyond the capacity of even the biggest computer.
0:48:24 > 0:48:28Recently, a conference was held at the Met Office headquarters
0:48:28 > 0:48:32in Exeter discuss this unusual sequence of weather events.
0:48:34 > 0:48:38Looking into the future, the weather will become even more varied
0:48:38 > 0:48:41and potentially even more extreme as well.
0:48:41 > 0:48:43So you will have more extremes of rainfall,
0:48:43 > 0:48:44already that's happening
0:48:44 > 0:48:48if you look at the records, we're getting four days of extreme
0:48:48 > 0:48:51rainfall in a year compared to what was three days before.
0:48:51 > 0:48:55And because the weather is very varied in the UK,
0:48:55 > 0:48:56perhaps we'll notice those extremes more
0:48:56 > 0:48:59and they'll have more of an impact.
0:48:59 > 0:49:03Everyday, over 350 weather reports are broadcast,
0:49:03 > 0:49:08with the on-duty forecasters having to negotiate this uncertainty.
0:49:08 > 0:49:11On top of that, they must try and deliver the science
0:49:11 > 0:49:13in the clearest possible way.
0:49:13 > 0:49:16Meteorologist Carol Kirkwood has been presenting the weather
0:49:16 > 0:49:19at the BBC for 20 years.
0:49:19 > 0:49:20It's a science,
0:49:20 > 0:49:23and there's no point going on air talking about sympathetic troughs
0:49:23 > 0:49:26or PVAs cos nobody would know what we were talking about.
0:49:26 > 0:49:29What we have to do is translate that meteorological information
0:49:29 > 0:49:31into everyday language,
0:49:31 > 0:49:35and if you don't do that, in my opinion, you have failed.
0:49:35 > 0:49:37There is a level of entertainment in it
0:49:37 > 0:49:40because you have to keep somebody engaged and somebody watching.
0:49:40 > 0:49:42If you talk in a monotone voice all the time like,
0:49:42 > 0:49:44"Good morning, it's going to be wet and windy today,
0:49:44 > 0:49:47"but it will be sunny across Northern Ireland,"
0:49:47 > 0:49:49it's like, "What happened there?"
0:49:49 > 0:49:51I get accused a lot of smiling,
0:49:51 > 0:49:53but I can't help it because I love my job,
0:49:53 > 0:49:56I don't deliberately set out to smile, I will at the beginning
0:49:56 > 0:49:59and the end, but when I'm doing it, it's enthusiasm,
0:49:59 > 0:50:03it's our subject, it's meteorology, we're fascinated by it as well.
0:50:03 > 0:50:08So you try and deliver it in the best form
0:50:08 > 0:50:10that is appropriate for that weather.
0:50:10 > 0:50:12And you can see, temperature-wise, again,
0:50:12 > 0:50:15that cool field coming across Scotland, Northern Ireland
0:50:15 > 0:50:18and northern England, but still, in comparison,
0:50:18 > 0:50:20relatively mild in the southeast.
0:50:29 > 0:50:33Expectations are high. There is enormous pressure on the Met Office
0:50:33 > 0:50:36to get the forecasts right and on the weather presenters
0:50:36 > 0:50:39to communicate them clearly and concisely.
0:50:39 > 0:50:42The weird thing about weather forecasting is it has
0:50:42 > 0:50:43a language all of its own.
0:50:43 > 0:50:48Forecasters on a daily basis use expressions that are never used
0:50:48 > 0:50:51in any other walk of life.
0:50:51 > 0:50:55Thunder only ever comes in odd rumbles.
0:50:57 > 0:50:59And as with all things weather related,
0:50:59 > 0:51:01people like complaining about it.
0:51:01 > 0:51:05Sometimes I laugh with the ridiculous phrases that are used.
0:51:05 > 0:51:08I could give you some examples.
0:51:08 > 0:51:12Cloud bubbling up, for instance. Bits and pieces of rain.
0:51:12 > 0:51:15We have a weather front sitting down.
0:51:15 > 0:51:19We're going to have a sandwich of weather today.
0:51:19 > 0:51:22A little ribbon of cloud flirting with the southwest.
0:51:22 > 0:51:25Sharp showers. Why should showers be sharp?
0:51:25 > 0:51:27Knives are sharp.
0:51:27 > 0:51:32A squally band moving currently through Kent, Essex and Suffolk.
0:51:32 > 0:51:35It has always been true that weather forecasters must cater
0:51:35 > 0:51:37for a large and varied audience.
0:51:37 > 0:51:41Pleasing all the people all of the time, is no easy matter.
0:51:41 > 0:51:44So you certainly can't describe the weather as dull over
0:51:44 > 0:51:46the next couple of days.
0:51:46 > 0:51:51It will keep us interested even as we get wet. Thanks very much.
0:51:51 > 0:51:56This ambiguity of tone between being a scientist on one hand
0:51:56 > 0:51:58and being a television personality on the other,
0:51:58 > 0:52:01this has been an issue over the last 60 years.
0:52:04 > 0:52:06With the weather becoming more extreme,
0:52:06 > 0:52:09the forecast is more important than ever,
0:52:09 > 0:52:12especially in places that are vulnerable to the elements.
0:52:12 > 0:52:13All the way, you'll notice the isobars,
0:52:13 > 0:52:15especially further south start to slacken,
0:52:15 > 0:52:18so it's not going to be as windy through the afternoon.
0:52:18 > 0:52:225 gust 7 from the west.
0:52:24 > 0:52:27At the Forth Road Bridge on the east coast of Scotland,
0:52:27 > 0:52:29maintenance supervisor George Hamilton
0:52:29 > 0:52:32is always worrying about the conditions.
0:52:32 > 0:52:36As far as my job's concerned, I live with the weather,
0:52:36 > 0:52:39as soon as I get in, the first thing I do is get a weather report.
0:52:41 > 0:52:44Tommy, could you give me a wind speed and direction, please.
0:52:46 > 0:52:495 gust and 7 from the west.
0:52:51 > 0:52:54I've seen myself out there with the boys working
0:52:54 > 0:52:58and all of a sudden you can actually see it coming from the west,
0:52:58 > 0:53:02the black cloud and the wind, and you don't have much time to get off,
0:53:02 > 0:53:06the wind just catches you, so you've got to be very aware if you like.
0:53:08 > 0:53:11High winds affect the road traffic too.
0:53:11 > 0:53:14The weather at the bridge is monitored 24 hours a day
0:53:14 > 0:53:16from the control centre
0:53:16 > 0:53:20and speed restrictions are put in place if winds become too strong,
0:53:20 > 0:53:23but not everyone heeds those warnings.
0:53:24 > 0:53:28In extreme wind conditions, if you look out there at the mid-span,
0:53:28 > 0:53:32it can actually go east to west between 6m and 7m.
0:53:32 > 0:53:34That's an awful lot of movement
0:53:34 > 0:53:37and, things like that, the bridge would be closed and that.
0:53:38 > 0:53:42Every day, George is utterly reliant on the weather forecast.
0:53:42 > 0:53:46Every morning, I listen to Carol Kirkwood on BBC.
0:53:46 > 0:53:48She's my queen, you know,
0:53:48 > 0:53:51so I've got to listen to her before I come out in the morning.
0:53:51 > 0:53:55I listen to everything she tells us because she's pretty good.
0:53:58 > 0:54:01The Forth Road Bridge is very high-maintenance.
0:54:01 > 0:54:05Every inch needs to be constantly checked and weather proofed.
0:54:07 > 0:54:09You're always thinking about the weather,
0:54:09 > 0:54:13at the moment I've got the painters, you can look at the suspender wires
0:54:13 > 0:54:16that's holding the bridge up. We're painting them,
0:54:16 > 0:54:19we need the weather for that and the wind, the rain's not good.
0:54:19 > 0:54:23And that's ongoing, it will take us six years to finish that,
0:54:23 > 0:54:26but as soon as we're finished that we're back at the first one again
0:54:26 > 0:54:29because you get quite a bit of corrosion.
0:54:29 > 0:54:33So, it is ongoing, it's never-ending.
0:54:33 > 0:54:35I hate the weather.
0:54:46 > 0:54:48Over the last 60 years,
0:54:48 > 0:54:50weather forecasting has gone from this...
0:54:50 > 0:54:51to this.
0:54:58 > 0:55:01Perfect predictions are a dream we persist with,
0:55:01 > 0:55:06- despite all the evidence that they will never be possible.- Oh, no!
0:55:06 > 0:55:08We all now can see weather forecasts information on our phones,
0:55:08 > 0:55:13we all use apps and we all expect those weather apps to tell us that
0:55:13 > 0:55:17whether it's going to rain for us in the exact location that we are,
0:55:17 > 0:55:20whether we can really do it down to the postcode scale that people
0:55:20 > 0:55:23expect I think is...probably a matter for debate
0:55:23 > 0:55:25and probably we can't right now.
0:55:25 > 0:55:28But I think that's probably where weather forecasting is going
0:55:28 > 0:55:32to this very hyper local idea.
0:55:32 > 0:55:35For all the gadgets and new technologies,
0:55:35 > 0:55:38many still want some human engagement.
0:55:38 > 0:55:42Watching the weather forecast is a daily ritual for millions.
0:55:42 > 0:55:47There's an interesting social science research recently which showed
0:55:47 > 0:55:51that huge numbers of people watch the weather forecast after the news.
0:55:51 > 0:55:55But when interviewed afterwards, most of them, about 70% of them,
0:55:55 > 0:55:58couldn't remember at all what was said about the weather.
0:55:58 > 0:56:01They were allowing it to sort of glide over them
0:56:01 > 0:56:04as a kind of national conversation about the weather.
0:56:04 > 0:56:07And part of the national conversation about the weather
0:56:07 > 0:56:10will always be about problems with the forecast.
0:56:10 > 0:56:13I'm quite reassured in a way that the weather forecast is wrong
0:56:13 > 0:56:15because it means there are still mysteries.
0:56:15 > 0:56:17The meteorologists today will be the first to admit
0:56:17 > 0:56:22"We can't control it. We can predict it to the best of our abilities, but the default position is,
0:56:22 > 0:56:25"we don't know what it's going to do. This is the best we can do,"
0:56:25 > 0:56:27and it think that's very healthy.
0:56:27 > 0:56:29It's important to remember that the weather forecast is
0:56:29 > 0:56:34a triumph of technology in a science still very much in its infancy.
0:56:34 > 0:56:38I think our forecasting skills are going to become even better
0:56:38 > 0:56:41than they currently are with the evolution of technology
0:56:41 > 0:56:43and the information available to us,
0:56:43 > 0:56:46the satellites that we have orbiting the earth. It can only get better,
0:56:46 > 0:56:49the computers are getting faster and faster all the time,
0:56:49 > 0:56:52as is the knowledge that we have of our climate.
0:56:52 > 0:56:55The weather forecast has become a touchstone,
0:56:55 > 0:57:00a moment of calm in our stormy, uncertain times.
0:57:00 > 0:57:04I think our relationship with the weather triggers
0:57:04 > 0:57:08all our fears about flux and chaos,
0:57:08 > 0:57:13and because of that, triggers our deepest investment in ordering,
0:57:13 > 0:57:16in ritual, in trying to tell the future.
0:57:16 > 0:57:20And the weather forecast, just those few minutes after the news,
0:57:20 > 0:57:24somehow manages to condense all of that into our daily lives.