0:00:02 > 0:00:05In three weeks, we all have to make a massive decision.
0:00:05 > 0:00:07Let's get out. Let's get out.
0:00:07 > 0:00:09Let's stop these faceless bureaucrats
0:00:09 > 0:00:10from telling us what to do.
0:00:10 > 0:00:13I say stay with what we've got, we're doing all right.
0:00:13 > 0:00:16Let's get on with it.
0:00:16 > 0:00:18But our choice about the European Union
0:00:18 > 0:00:20could be an economic gamble.
0:00:20 > 0:00:23I'm going to do each way on Sacred Trust.
0:00:23 > 0:00:25You're being asked to choose
0:00:25 > 0:00:28between a hypothetical universe outside the European Union,
0:00:28 > 0:00:33or staying in something that is already changing.
0:00:33 > 0:00:37The big names want to get you on their side.
0:00:37 > 0:00:38We are a great country.
0:00:38 > 0:00:42We can flourish if we stand on our own two feet.
0:00:42 > 0:00:45It will be the ordinary working people of this country
0:00:45 > 0:00:47who see their jobs threatened,
0:00:47 > 0:00:49who see the value of their family home go down,
0:00:49 > 0:00:51who see their wages hit.
0:00:53 > 0:00:57What should we make of all the warnings of trouble if we leave?
0:00:57 > 0:01:01I would be concerned about the immediate market consequences.
0:01:01 > 0:01:07Frankly, I would be concerned about the outcome for the British people.
0:01:07 > 0:01:10Businesses freeze up, confidence drains,
0:01:10 > 0:01:15uncertainty clouds over, and an economic shock shakes our nation.
0:01:15 > 0:01:18It's not going to happen. They're just talking bollocks.
0:01:20 > 0:01:23Could breaking away set Britain free?
0:01:25 > 0:01:27I'm really, really excited.
0:01:27 > 0:01:29You know, we're the fifth-biggest trading nation.
0:01:29 > 0:01:33Why can't we do this on our own?
0:01:35 > 0:01:38Let's say knickers to the pessimists!
0:01:38 > 0:01:42So if we leave, would we be richer or poorer?
0:02:04 > 0:02:07'The headlines this morning. Britain has voted for Brexit.
0:02:07 > 0:02:10'We're now going to go live to Downing Street
0:02:10 > 0:02:13'to hear from the Prime Minister, David Cameron.'
0:02:15 > 0:02:17- CAMERON:- 'Good morning.
0:02:17 > 0:02:20'The people have spoken, and it is a clear result.
0:02:24 > 0:02:27'Now the debate has been settled for a generation.
0:02:27 > 0:02:29'Perhaps for a lifetime.
0:02:32 > 0:02:36'It means pressure on the pound, it means jobs being lost.
0:02:36 > 0:02:40'It means mortgage rates might rise, it means businesses closing.
0:02:40 > 0:02:43'It means hard-working people losing their livelihood.'
0:02:53 > 0:02:57But, hang on, would it really be doom and disaster
0:02:57 > 0:02:58if we leave the EU?
0:03:01 > 0:03:03# Good morning
0:03:03 > 0:03:05# Good morning
0:03:05 > 0:03:07# We've talked the whole night through
0:03:07 > 0:03:08# Good morning
0:03:08 > 0:03:10# Good morning to you... #
0:03:10 > 0:03:11Morning.
0:03:11 > 0:03:14Or could it be a bright new dawn?
0:03:14 > 0:03:16# ..It's great to stay up late
0:03:16 > 0:03:17# Good morning
0:03:17 > 0:03:19# Good morning to you... #
0:03:19 > 0:03:21- BORIS JOHNSON:- 'Thanks to the referendum,
0:03:21 > 0:03:25'we find that a door has magically opened in our lives.
0:03:25 > 0:03:28'We can see the sunlit meadows beyond.'
0:03:28 > 0:03:30# ..Sunbeams will soon smile through
0:03:30 > 0:03:31# Good morning
0:03:31 > 0:03:33# Good morning to you
0:03:33 > 0:03:34# And you and you and you... #
0:03:34 > 0:03:37Of course, life is rarely that black and white.
0:03:37 > 0:03:43It's impossible to be as sure about all of this as the two sides claim.
0:03:43 > 0:03:48In reality, leaving the EU probably wouldn't be paradise or a disaster.
0:03:48 > 0:03:51But what we do know is that money talks.
0:03:51 > 0:03:54How we all make our living really matters
0:03:54 > 0:03:56when it comes to this decision.
0:04:05 > 0:04:08Politicians will do anything right now to grab your attention.
0:04:08 > 0:04:10Well, it's David Cameron calling.
0:04:10 > 0:04:13I'm calling from the Stronger In Campaign.
0:04:13 > 0:04:17And they're making big, bold claims about your cash.
0:04:18 > 0:04:23Leaving the EU is a one-way ticket to a poorer Britain.
0:04:23 > 0:04:27Great British companies like this could in fact do even better
0:04:27 > 0:04:32if we took back control of our economy and our democracy...
0:04:32 > 0:04:35There's been a barrage of so-called facts and figures,
0:04:35 > 0:04:37but can you believe them all?
0:04:37 > 0:04:40You know what they say about statistics!
0:04:42 > 0:04:45- Vote Leave.- Vote Leave. - Vote Leave.- Vote Leave.
0:04:46 > 0:04:49The Out Campaign keep pushing one figure
0:04:49 > 0:04:52that's been impossible to ignore.
0:04:52 > 0:04:55They've made it in steel...
0:04:57 > 0:04:59..put it on the side of their bus...
0:05:02 > 0:05:04..and even pretended to burn it.
0:05:08 > 0:05:13We can take back control of £350 million a week.
0:05:13 > 0:05:17But £350 million isn't quite the full story
0:05:17 > 0:05:19about what we send to Brussels.
0:05:19 > 0:05:22Some of the money never makes it in the first place
0:05:22 > 0:05:24because of what's called the rebate,
0:05:24 > 0:05:29and much of the rest of it is spent in the UK anyway.
0:05:29 > 0:05:34You're claiming that £350 million goes to Brussels every week
0:05:34 > 0:05:35and if we vote to leave,
0:05:35 > 0:05:38somehow we will be able to control all of that money.
0:05:38 > 0:05:40Now you know, saying again and again,
0:05:40 > 0:05:42"We just send £350 million to Brussels a week,"
0:05:42 > 0:05:44is not telling people the full story,
0:05:44 > 0:05:47- because much of that money comes back.- Well, I agree. I know.
0:05:47 > 0:05:51But I go into a long account of what I think the full story is.
0:05:51 > 0:05:54Actually, it's about 365 million all in,
0:05:54 > 0:05:58if you look at the recent ONS figures, I think.
0:05:58 > 0:06:02What that comprises is, as you know and I know, is the abatement
0:06:02 > 0:06:05and of course the money we get back in investment.
0:06:05 > 0:06:08So you've just admitted, Boris Johnson,
0:06:08 > 0:06:10that much of that money comes back,
0:06:10 > 0:06:12yet every day you're driving around the country with a bus
0:06:12 > 0:06:15that says on the side, posters all over the land saying,
0:06:15 > 0:06:17- "We send £350 million a week." - Yes, but, Laura... We do.
0:06:17 > 0:06:20You are asking people to make a momentous decision.
0:06:20 > 0:06:24Don't you owe it to them to be completely clear about the facts?
0:06:24 > 0:06:25Completely clear.
0:06:25 > 0:06:29Yes. I genuinely have been many, many times on this very point.
0:06:29 > 0:06:32The reason, I think, that it is legitimate
0:06:32 > 0:06:35to use the £350 million figure
0:06:35 > 0:06:39is because that is the sum that we do send to Brussels
0:06:39 > 0:06:42and over which we have no control, because after all,
0:06:42 > 0:06:47what happens is about half of that disappears, never to be seen again.
0:06:47 > 0:06:49Some of it goes to Greek tobacco farmers,
0:06:49 > 0:06:52some of it goes to support Spanish bullfighting or heaven knows what.
0:06:52 > 0:06:55We don't know what happens to it.
0:06:55 > 0:06:59The actual amount we send to Europe is somewhere between £250 million
0:06:59 > 0:07:03and £275 million a week, because we get a rebate back.
0:07:03 > 0:07:06Then, on top of that, we get additional money back to pay
0:07:06 > 0:07:09to farmers, to pay to poorer regions,
0:07:09 > 0:07:13so our net contribution after all of that is about £150 million a week.
0:07:17 > 0:07:18Good morning.
0:07:18 > 0:07:21But on the other side, the Remainers haven't shied away
0:07:21 > 0:07:25from using figures that could do with some explaining too.
0:07:25 > 0:07:30Britain would be poorer by £4,300 per household.
0:07:30 > 0:07:33This could cost families £4,300.
0:07:33 > 0:07:37That is £4,300 worse off every year.
0:07:37 > 0:07:42A bill paid year after year by the working people of Britain.
0:07:42 > 0:07:45You should know that statistic is a forecast.
0:07:45 > 0:07:49It's an educated guess for 15 years from now.
0:07:49 > 0:07:54That's quite a big number. Two things are important to be aware of.
0:07:54 > 0:07:58First, that's not £4,000 a year worse off than you are today,
0:07:58 > 0:08:01it's £4,000 worse off than you would be in the future.
0:08:01 > 0:08:05Secondly, there's significant uncertainty around it.
0:08:05 > 0:08:09When it comes to statistics, like the £4,300 number,
0:08:09 > 0:08:14can we just be clear - that is an educated guess. That is not a fact.
0:08:14 > 0:08:17So when you and the Prime Minister stand in front of banners, posters,
0:08:17 > 0:08:22that use that figure, that's a guess, not a cast-iron fact.
0:08:22 > 0:08:26If you take the £4,300 number, that's how much
0:08:26 > 0:08:30the country would be poorer per household if we left the EU.
0:08:30 > 0:08:34- That's a central estimate.- It's an estimate, that's exactly the point.
0:08:34 > 0:08:35It's a guess.
0:08:35 > 0:08:39No, it's based on solid economic research,
0:08:39 > 0:08:42it's backed up by what the IMF is telling us,
0:08:42 > 0:08:46the Institute of Fiscal Studies, you know, these are organisations
0:08:46 > 0:08:49that aren't in the control of the British Government.
0:08:49 > 0:08:52You're not really treating voters with that much respect, are you?
0:08:52 > 0:08:54These are educated guesses, but they are guesses.
0:08:54 > 0:08:57Well, I think the British people want as much information as possible
0:08:57 > 0:08:59before they make this huge decision.
0:08:59 > 0:09:02It's probably the biggest decision any of us will be asked to take
0:09:02 > 0:09:05as citizens of the United Kingdom in our lifetimes.
0:09:05 > 0:09:08They need to know that the Treasury forecasts show
0:09:08 > 0:09:09the country will be worse off,
0:09:09 > 0:09:11that almost everyone else's forecasts show
0:09:11 > 0:09:13the country will be worse off.
0:09:13 > 0:09:15The individual businesses have told us that they
0:09:15 > 0:09:19will either not take on new people or cancel investments
0:09:19 > 0:09:22if we leave the EU. Those are all facts.
0:09:27 > 0:09:29So be careful.
0:09:29 > 0:09:32Inevitably, the politicians are using the statistics
0:09:32 > 0:09:34that suit their side,
0:09:34 > 0:09:38but what about those who really know about the bottom line -
0:09:38 > 0:09:42the men and women who run the businesses that make up our economy
0:09:42 > 0:09:44and provide our jobs?
0:09:46 > 0:09:50Tucked away in Somerset is Wyke Farms dairy.
0:09:50 > 0:09:54The family have been making cheese here for 150 years.
0:09:54 > 0:09:57We're still using my grandmother's farmhouse Cheddar recipe.
0:09:57 > 0:10:01Cheese-making and farming is in the family's blood.
0:10:01 > 0:10:04- Smells nice.- Smells good.
0:10:04 > 0:10:05Smashing.
0:10:08 > 0:10:12But guess where this most tasty, most British product
0:10:12 > 0:10:14has found new fans?
0:10:15 > 0:10:17Europe is a very big customer for us.
0:10:17 > 0:10:21The French really like strong, mature Cheddars.
0:10:21 > 0:10:24They quite like to get sort of intimate with their food,
0:10:24 > 0:10:27so they like to try it on the delis and smell it and taste it.
0:10:27 > 0:10:29Then, if they like it,
0:10:29 > 0:10:31they'll buy it and they'll cook with it or they'll serve
0:10:31 > 0:10:35it on a cheeseboard, so it's really growing in popularity,
0:10:35 > 0:10:37English cheese in France.
0:10:40 > 0:10:43Beating the French at their own game
0:10:43 > 0:10:46has helped Richard to hire more staff.
0:10:49 > 0:10:53They've all got something to say about the European Union.
0:10:54 > 0:10:58I've been living with the EU all my life. I've had a good life.
0:10:58 > 0:11:02I don't see why we should break the status quo.
0:11:02 > 0:11:05My children, if they can carry on the same way as we have,
0:11:05 > 0:11:08then it's great. A lot of good things come out of the EU,
0:11:08 > 0:11:11so, yeah, I'd certainly vote to stay in.
0:11:11 > 0:11:15Possibly the power that we've got at the moment is being taken away,
0:11:15 > 0:11:18gradually being eroded over the years.
0:11:18 > 0:11:23I think, you know, going independent wouldn't necessarily be a bad thing.
0:11:23 > 0:11:28We know where we are. I think we're dealing with a known.
0:11:28 > 0:11:31If it's not broke, don't fix it. I don't think it's broken.
0:11:31 > 0:11:34It can perform better - by far it can perform better.
0:11:34 > 0:11:38I think we'll be better off, more stability for the future.
0:11:40 > 0:11:43We employ about 250 people in the region.
0:11:43 > 0:11:46Obviously, for me, the most important thing
0:11:46 > 0:11:48is keeping people's jobs safe
0:11:48 > 0:11:52and, you know, looking after the farmers in the region.
0:11:53 > 0:11:59And he puts much of their success down to being in the EU.
0:11:59 > 0:12:01The Single Market works for us
0:12:01 > 0:12:03and it is absolutely critical
0:12:03 > 0:12:08in terms of exporting products to multiple countries within the EU.
0:12:10 > 0:12:13The Single Market means Richard's cheese can go from Somerset
0:12:13 > 0:12:18to France's croque monsieurs virtually uninterrupted.
0:12:18 > 0:12:23Nearly half of all of Britain's exports go to the EU
0:12:23 > 0:12:27and don't meet any extra taxes or tariffs.
0:12:27 > 0:12:31When it works, it makes it easier for British companies
0:12:31 > 0:12:33to trade and create jobs.
0:12:36 > 0:12:39That was precisely the dream -
0:12:39 > 0:12:43a vast area where Europeans could trade freely.
0:12:43 > 0:12:46- REPORTER:- With communication between countries half a world apart
0:12:46 > 0:12:48nowadays no more than a matter of hours...
0:12:48 > 0:12:52Most experts believe it's helped, not hindered.
0:12:52 > 0:12:56The country is more prosperous since we joined the Common Market in 1973.
0:12:56 > 0:12:58No less than 80% of British industry
0:12:58 > 0:13:01believes the European free-trade area
0:13:01 > 0:13:04will bring home the bacon of increased prosperity.
0:13:04 > 0:13:09So what would happen if we left the EU and the Single Market?
0:13:09 > 0:13:11I believe that if we leave Europe,
0:13:11 > 0:13:14it'll be really bad for this business,
0:13:14 > 0:13:18and for me, to leave would present an unacceptable level of risk
0:13:18 > 0:13:21to those jobs, and businesses like ours,
0:13:21 > 0:13:25that are working in Europe and trying to grow within Europe.
0:13:35 > 0:13:38But in Kent, here's a very different kind of business.
0:13:41 > 0:13:44Russ Pullen runs the British Hovercraft Company...
0:13:47 > 0:13:50So, Christian, that can be in for trim on Monday.
0:13:50 > 0:13:53..working with his wife Emma.
0:13:53 > 0:13:55Are we going to have to change the mould with this?
0:13:55 > 0:13:58That'll need to have a bigger base plate at the bottom, isn't it?
0:14:00 > 0:14:05They've been in business for 20 years and employ 15 people...
0:14:07 > 0:14:10..and don't forget the dog, Pebbles.
0:14:10 > 0:14:12But they fall foul of a European directive,
0:14:12 > 0:14:16a rule that makes it hard to sell their hovercrafts
0:14:16 > 0:14:18in the European Union.
0:14:18 > 0:14:21There is nothing we can do to change the EU directives, unfortunately,
0:14:21 > 0:14:24so we constantly feel like we're bashing our heads against a brick wall.
0:14:24 > 0:14:27We've been told, "Give up, don't worry, do something else."
0:14:27 > 0:14:30For as long as we're in the Single Market,
0:14:30 > 0:14:33it's down to the EU to work out how we do business
0:14:33 > 0:14:35with the rest of the world.
0:14:35 > 0:14:37Exporting to growing countries
0:14:37 > 0:14:38is a massive problem for us.
0:14:38 > 0:14:41For instance, Brazil - we had a guy come over,
0:14:41 > 0:14:43a businessman from Brazil, wanting to buy
0:14:43 > 0:14:45a large number of hovercraft from us.
0:14:45 > 0:14:47Unfortunately, didn't go ahead with the deal
0:14:47 > 0:14:49because the duty rate was so high,
0:14:49 > 0:14:52so we lost a £50,000 deal with this guy,
0:14:52 > 0:14:54who wanted to buy five craft from us,
0:14:54 > 0:14:56because he would have had to pay an additional £50,000
0:14:56 > 0:14:58to take it into his country,
0:14:58 > 0:15:00because there hasn't been a trade deal agreed
0:15:00 > 0:15:02between the EU and Brazil yet.
0:15:02 > 0:15:05That's one of five countries I can think of off the top of my head
0:15:05 > 0:15:07that I've had inquiries from that I can't deal with.
0:15:07 > 0:15:10We're the fifth-biggest trading nation.
0:15:10 > 0:15:14Why can't we do this on our own?
0:15:14 > 0:15:17I don't understand - we've been brilliant for so many years
0:15:17 > 0:15:20and we had an exporting empire that spanned the globe.
0:15:20 > 0:15:22I want to be able to sell to Australia easier,
0:15:22 > 0:15:24I want to be able to sell to America easier,
0:15:24 > 0:15:27I want to be able to sell to these countries that I can do,
0:15:27 > 0:15:30and what we produce here is hand built, British made,
0:15:30 > 0:15:33and people really respect the British quality.
0:15:33 > 0:15:35Pebbles! Heel!
0:15:35 > 0:15:39Most of the workers here are right behind the boss.
0:15:39 > 0:15:41Let's get out. Let's get out.
0:15:41 > 0:15:42Let's stop these faceless bureaucrats
0:15:42 > 0:15:44from telling us what to do.
0:15:44 > 0:15:47Let's make our own laws and get on with life and be happy with it.
0:15:47 > 0:15:49We never voted for anybody,
0:15:49 > 0:15:52so let's stick with the people we vote for to make our laws
0:15:52 > 0:15:54and have done with it.
0:15:54 > 0:15:57It all seems to be about how it's good for big business
0:15:57 > 0:15:59and not the individual, so how does it affect me?
0:15:59 > 0:16:01That's what I want to know.
0:16:01 > 0:16:05We've got to take control. We've got to take our country back.
0:16:05 > 0:16:07I'm so proud of my country. I genuinely am.
0:16:07 > 0:16:09I get really emotional about this
0:16:09 > 0:16:14because I don't want to see us as just a puppet state of the EU,
0:16:14 > 0:16:16and that's what we're becoming.
0:16:16 > 0:16:19So, two businesses, two very different views
0:16:19 > 0:16:23of how the EU does - or doesn't - work.
0:16:23 > 0:16:26It's a tiny taste of the big arguments.
0:16:31 > 0:16:34It's the biggest decision for a generation.
0:16:34 > 0:16:37Does the EU help our economy...
0:16:39 > 0:16:40..or not?
0:16:42 > 0:16:45Our economy would take a hit if we leave.
0:16:45 > 0:16:47If the economy takes a hit, tax revenues take a hit,
0:16:47 > 0:16:49and if tax revenues take a hit,
0:16:49 > 0:16:53you've got less money to spend on the things that we need.
0:16:56 > 0:16:57For Britain, voting to leave
0:16:57 > 0:17:01will be a galvanising, liberating, empowering moment
0:17:01 > 0:17:02of patriotic renewal.
0:17:06 > 0:17:10The Single Market brings extraordinary economic benefits
0:17:10 > 0:17:11to the United Kingdom.
0:17:11 > 0:17:14Let's say knickers to the pessimists...
0:17:26 > 0:17:31This is about who we want to be, not just how we pay our way.
0:17:31 > 0:17:35Sometimes, it's like the grey suits of the Establishment
0:17:35 > 0:17:37are warning us we'd go broke if we leave,
0:17:37 > 0:17:40and on the other side, rebels with a cause
0:17:40 > 0:17:43just promise it would all be fine.
0:17:43 > 0:17:47At the heart of this battle is a big question -
0:17:47 > 0:17:52how would we trade with the rest of the EU if we leave?
0:17:52 > 0:17:55And no-one's more worried about that
0:17:55 > 0:17:58than what is, once more, one of our biggest industries.
0:18:03 > 0:18:07Once upon a time, British cars were loved all over the world.
0:18:08 > 0:18:11The Mini. Cheap on petrol - boop-boop!
0:18:11 > 0:18:13British made - boop-boop-boop!
0:18:16 > 0:18:19Yet by the '70s, it was a disaster -
0:18:19 > 0:18:21strikes, bailouts,
0:18:21 > 0:18:25and some motors, frankly, best forgotten.
0:18:32 > 0:18:35But people who support our membership of the EU
0:18:35 > 0:18:39say it's been a big part of bringing this trade back to life.
0:18:41 > 0:18:43I worked in the UK car industry.
0:18:43 > 0:18:46I saw its decline, and I've been part -
0:18:46 > 0:18:50a small part, admittedly - of its continuing success.
0:18:50 > 0:18:53I want to see that continue.
0:18:53 > 0:18:57Ian Robertson is the Brit who sits on the board of BMW,
0:18:57 > 0:19:01one of the foreign giants behind a revival that sees the industry
0:19:01 > 0:19:07produce 1.5 million cars a year and employs 800,000 people.
0:19:07 > 0:19:10He fears if we're not part of the EU,
0:19:10 > 0:19:14trade barriers and costs could pile up.
0:19:14 > 0:19:18In the situation where the UK was not in the EU,
0:19:18 > 0:19:19then there could -
0:19:19 > 0:19:22and I stress "could", because this is all hypothetical -
0:19:22 > 0:19:25there could be tariffs put in place which would make
0:19:25 > 0:19:27competitiveness more difficult.
0:19:27 > 0:19:30And as a result, you know, in our operations here,
0:19:30 > 0:19:34we'd have to work very, very hard to try and avoid the risk
0:19:34 > 0:19:36of having more cost that, ultimately,
0:19:36 > 0:19:38gets passed on to a consumer.
0:19:38 > 0:19:40So cars could become more expensive,
0:19:40 > 0:19:44because you might have to pay more to do business.
0:19:44 > 0:19:46That could be one of the outcomes and, of course,
0:19:46 > 0:19:49in our business, it's a very competitive industry.
0:19:49 > 0:19:52Isn't the reality businesses on mainland Europe
0:19:52 > 0:19:55would be banging down the doors of European politicians,
0:19:55 > 0:19:57saying, "We want to sell to the UK"?
0:19:57 > 0:19:59They don't want to lose their markets here, either.
0:19:59 > 0:20:01I think you make a valid point,
0:20:01 > 0:20:04but it would take 28 member states to agree
0:20:04 > 0:20:07and, even in the most optimistic scenario,
0:20:07 > 0:20:09that would take several years.
0:20:16 > 0:20:18MARKET TRADERS CALL
0:20:18 > 0:20:21Talking about tariffs and trade barriers
0:20:21 > 0:20:23might sound a bit academic,
0:20:23 > 0:20:27but it really does make a difference to the pound in your pocket.
0:20:30 > 0:20:33Do you think, if we leave the EU, would we be better off or worse off?
0:20:33 > 0:20:35What's your opinion?
0:20:35 > 0:20:37- That is the million-dollar question, isn't it?- It is.
0:20:37 > 0:20:39Yeah, might be poorer, to begin with,
0:20:39 > 0:20:41but I think it'll work out in the long run.
0:20:41 > 0:20:44We were doing all right before we joined the EU.
0:20:44 > 0:20:49If leaving the EU made it harder to sell British goods
0:20:49 > 0:20:53to the rest of Europe, we all might pay a price.
0:20:53 > 0:20:55All sorts of people are saying,
0:20:55 > 0:20:57"There could be significant trade barriers."
0:20:57 > 0:20:59Now, can you be straight with people
0:20:59 > 0:21:02and say, despite your faith in Britain's ability to trade,
0:21:02 > 0:21:05you can't guarantee any of it, can you?
0:21:05 > 0:21:10Well, of course, no-one can prophesy or guarantee the future
0:21:10 > 0:21:13and I think it's got to be vanishingly unlikely
0:21:13 > 0:21:15that the EU would want to discriminate
0:21:15 > 0:21:18against British products and services,
0:21:18 > 0:21:21given the massive balance in their favour
0:21:21 > 0:21:25at the moment, in trade - probably about £80 billion.
0:21:25 > 0:21:28Why would they do it? It doesn't make any sense.
0:21:28 > 0:21:32Well, I don't understand why any European country
0:21:32 > 0:21:36would give to Britain a better deal than they give to themselves.
0:21:36 > 0:21:41Why would they allow Britain to trade freely with Europe,
0:21:41 > 0:21:44and all the jobs that that brings, if, at the same time,
0:21:44 > 0:21:47we're not paying into the European Union budget
0:21:47 > 0:21:49and accepting the free movement of people?
0:21:49 > 0:21:51They couldn't possibly do that. That defies logic,
0:21:51 > 0:21:54and you've heard very clearly from all these governments
0:21:54 > 0:21:56that that wouldn't be the case.
0:21:56 > 0:21:59So you can't have the benefits of being in the EU
0:21:59 > 0:22:01without any of the costs,
0:22:01 > 0:22:03and I think that's an unreal argument,
0:22:03 > 0:22:04from the other side.
0:22:06 > 0:22:08We're all just trying to figure it out.
0:22:10 > 0:22:13I say stay with what we've got, we're doing all right,
0:22:13 > 0:22:15and let's get on with it.
0:22:15 > 0:22:19They'll still want to shop with us. They'll still want to buy off us.
0:22:19 > 0:22:21We'll still want to buy off them.
0:22:21 > 0:22:24They need our money, we need their money,
0:22:24 > 0:22:26so it'll still be the same.
0:22:26 > 0:22:28I've not made up my mind.
0:22:28 > 0:22:31I'm still asking for divine inspiration.
0:22:34 > 0:22:38The Remain camp might not have been able to call on God -
0:22:38 > 0:22:39at least, not yet -
0:22:39 > 0:22:44but they have had support from some friends in pretty high places.
0:22:49 > 0:22:51A casual visit from the American President...
0:22:51 > 0:22:57If one of our best friends is in an organisation
0:22:57 > 0:23:00that enhances their influence and enhances their power
0:23:00 > 0:23:04and enhances their economy, then I want them to stay in it.
0:23:04 > 0:23:08..serious tones from the Governor of the Bank of England...
0:23:08 > 0:23:11The recent behaviour of the foreign exchange market suggests that,
0:23:11 > 0:23:13were the UK to vote to leave the EU,
0:23:13 > 0:23:17sterling's exchange rate would fall further, perhaps sharply.
0:23:17 > 0:23:19..and then Christine Lagarde,
0:23:19 > 0:23:23the head of the International Monetary Fund.
0:23:23 > 0:23:26If Britain chooses to leave the EU,
0:23:26 > 0:23:29what do you think the consequences would be for the economy?
0:23:29 > 0:23:34Well, if you assume that growth is most likely going to be down,
0:23:34 > 0:23:38it means less jobs, less income,
0:23:38 > 0:23:39higher prices.
0:23:39 > 0:23:43That's the sort of immediate consequences that people
0:23:43 > 0:23:46will perceive in the rather short term.
0:23:48 > 0:23:52So that's why we're saying that it's going to be negative.
0:23:52 > 0:23:54Now, how long it will be negative
0:23:54 > 0:23:57will be a factor of the negotiations.
0:23:58 > 0:24:01The longer the negotiations,
0:24:01 > 0:24:03the more negative the impact will be.
0:24:03 > 0:24:06Are you meaning two years, five years, ten years,
0:24:06 > 0:24:08when it might really hurt families?
0:24:08 > 0:24:11I think the hurting would come pretty soon,
0:24:11 > 0:24:14but when I'm talking about a protracted period of time,
0:24:14 > 0:24:18I'm talking about the time it will take to negotiate
0:24:18 > 0:24:20those agreements with the rest of the world.
0:24:20 > 0:24:23You're making a very strong warning today,
0:24:23 > 0:24:25but the IMF's forecasts have been wrong before -
0:24:25 > 0:24:27they've been wrong about other countries.
0:24:27 > 0:24:30They've been wrong about what would happen in this country.
0:24:30 > 0:24:31Why should people listen now?
0:24:31 > 0:24:34First of all, everybody makes mistakes.
0:24:34 > 0:24:37Second, we have probably got it right
0:24:37 > 0:24:40much more often than we have got it wrong.
0:24:40 > 0:24:45In the case of the negative consequences of Brexit,
0:24:45 > 0:24:46if we were wrong,
0:24:46 > 0:24:50there would be a vast majority of economists around
0:24:50 > 0:24:51that would be wrong, too,
0:24:51 > 0:24:55and when I look at all the assessments around...
0:24:56 > 0:24:59..I don't see any positive. I see a lot of negative.
0:25:05 > 0:25:07Hi, how are you doing, all right?
0:25:07 > 0:25:09Very nice to see you again.
0:25:09 > 0:25:11But like in many pubs across the country,
0:25:11 > 0:25:14the landlord here is having none of it.
0:25:15 > 0:25:18I wasn't planning on having one till this evening.
0:25:18 > 0:25:22Are the Bank of England, much of the big business world,
0:25:22 > 0:25:26the Treasury, the International Monetary Fund,
0:25:26 > 0:25:28are they all just plain wrong?
0:25:28 > 0:25:30They're just talking bollocks.
0:25:30 > 0:25:31SHE LAUGHS
0:25:31 > 0:25:34We had the same thing with the euro, you have to remember,
0:25:34 > 0:25:38where the great and the good were very much in favour of it.
0:25:38 > 0:25:40Did they understand it? No.
0:25:40 > 0:25:44Were they right? No. Are they right now? No.
0:25:44 > 0:25:48Tim Martin's not exactly your typical landlord.
0:25:48 > 0:25:52He built up Wetherspoon's pub chain from scratch.
0:25:52 > 0:25:55Now it turns over more than £1 billion a year
0:25:55 > 0:25:58and has 35,000 staff.
0:25:58 > 0:26:04He's given 200 grand of his own cash to the Vote Leave campaign.
0:26:04 > 0:26:09How can you be sure that Britain out of the EU
0:26:09 > 0:26:11would be able to keep access
0:26:11 > 0:26:13to the rest of the European Union to trade with?
0:26:13 > 0:26:16Because one of the things they don't teach you
0:26:16 > 0:26:21at Harvard Business School comes into play - common sense.
0:26:21 > 0:26:26We buy a lot more from Europe than we sell to Europe.
0:26:26 > 0:26:28I know, from running a business,
0:26:28 > 0:26:32that that means that we can do a hell of a good deal.
0:26:32 > 0:26:37But if, by any chance, we can't buy BMWs from Germany
0:26:37 > 0:26:40because, on a point of principle,
0:26:40 > 0:26:43they don't want to sell to one of their biggest customers,
0:26:43 > 0:26:45we'll just have to buy a Lexus from Japan,
0:26:45 > 0:26:47or a Volvo from Sweden.
0:26:47 > 0:26:49I drive one myself, it's very good.
0:26:49 > 0:26:55But common sense, as you suggest, is not the same as a guarantee
0:26:55 > 0:26:59that our important trading relationships
0:26:59 > 0:27:01would still be in place.
0:27:01 > 0:27:04You can't guarantee that, can you?
0:27:04 > 0:27:08We can guarantee within an independent Britain that we
0:27:08 > 0:27:09can make our own laws.
0:27:09 > 0:27:11That's a guarantee.
0:27:11 > 0:27:14With Europe, with laws being made that we have no or very
0:27:14 > 0:27:19little control over, that's the danger.
0:27:19 > 0:27:23Do his regulars think he's right, though?
0:27:23 > 0:27:26My view is, always, it's best to be on the inside,
0:27:26 > 0:27:29trying to influence things, than it is to be outside and be able
0:27:29 > 0:27:33to look at it and say, "I wish we could still have some say."
0:27:33 > 0:27:35So, I'm very believing - the devil you know,
0:27:35 > 0:27:38and I'm definitely a staying in person.
0:27:38 > 0:27:40I think we'd be better off without.
0:27:40 > 0:27:43I think we're strong enough to sustain ourselves,
0:27:43 > 0:27:46without having to worry about other countries
0:27:46 > 0:27:49and bailing Greece out or helping out these people.
0:27:49 > 0:27:52We're fine now. We're fully functional on our own.
0:27:59 > 0:28:03And that's the instinct that could take us out.
0:28:03 > 0:28:06Britain on her own, great again,
0:28:06 > 0:28:10escaping a failing European Union that's simply had its day.
0:28:10 > 0:28:14So could leaving be the start of something big?
0:28:22 > 0:28:26So why couldn't we just leave and be free, rediscover some of our
0:28:26 > 0:28:31buccaneering trading traditions and head out into the big, wide world?
0:28:31 > 0:28:35Those campaigning to leave say if we've got the guts to go,
0:28:35 > 0:28:38Britain could get its mojo back.
0:28:41 > 0:28:45This is the launch of a campaign for freedom.
0:28:45 > 0:28:48And it's a chance for us to believe in ourselves.
0:28:48 > 0:28:51Our country has tremendous, untapped potential,
0:28:51 > 0:28:53which independence would unleash.
0:28:55 > 0:28:59For some British entrepreneurs, leaving the EU would mean
0:28:59 > 0:29:03saying goodbye to hassle and hello to new prosperity.
0:29:04 > 0:29:08Instead of looking at the fear of, oh, we can't do a change, or we're
0:29:08 > 0:29:11going to be little Englanders - no, we're going to be Great Britainers.
0:29:11 > 0:29:14We will be Great Britain with all of the world.
0:29:14 > 0:29:16That could be the east or the west, the north and the south,
0:29:16 > 0:29:18the whole lot.
0:29:19 > 0:29:24Pete Chadha deals in data. His IT business in Surrey has 30 staff.
0:29:24 > 0:29:29He reckons EU rules just can't keep up with his business,
0:29:29 > 0:29:31that's changing all the time.
0:29:33 > 0:29:37There is a proposed new directive in my area, on data protection,
0:29:37 > 0:29:42which will affect £15 billion of extra burden on the UK economy,
0:29:42 > 0:29:46as said by Deloitte, not by me, that's a Deloitte prediction.
0:29:46 > 0:29:49I think, outside of the EU, we'll be free of the red tape
0:29:49 > 0:29:51and smaller businesses can be more agile
0:29:51 > 0:29:53without the burden of thinking,
0:29:53 > 0:29:55"Oh, what does Brussels want us to do next?"
0:29:55 > 0:29:58We'll form new relationships with Europe itself, but around the world,
0:29:58 > 0:30:02with India, with China, with countries in Africa,
0:30:02 > 0:30:05with the States and Canada. We can do it all in this country.
0:30:07 > 0:30:11And the boss of one of Britain's most iconic brands feels
0:30:11 > 0:30:13exactly the same.
0:30:15 > 0:30:18Tate & Lyle Sugars have been refining by the Thames
0:30:18 > 0:30:21for more than 130 years.
0:30:25 > 0:30:28But our membership of the EU costs them dear.
0:30:31 > 0:30:35For most ships that bring their raw cane sugar to the
0:30:35 > 0:30:40dock from outside the EU, they have to pay a handsome fee.
0:30:40 > 0:30:43The EU is the biggest drag on our business's competitiveness
0:30:43 > 0:30:45because of the way it regulates us.
0:30:45 > 0:30:49The last boat that was here, we paid around 3.5 million euros
0:30:49 > 0:30:53on import tariffs to the European Union to bring that sugar in.
0:30:53 > 0:30:57In contrast, our competitors, the beet sugar producers in Europe,
0:30:57 > 0:31:00get around 160 million euros a year in subsidy.
0:31:00 > 0:31:03It's almost as if we send the money to Brussels
0:31:03 > 0:31:06and they redistribute it to subsidise our competitors.
0:31:06 > 0:31:08Britain is a member of the EU.
0:31:08 > 0:31:11We can, in theory, make a difference to those decisions.
0:31:11 > 0:31:12We can get our way,
0:31:12 > 0:31:15we can persuade other people to see our point of view.
0:31:15 > 0:31:1812 years ago, before I started working in the cane sugar industry,
0:31:18 > 0:31:21that's what I thought, but what you realise is that
0:31:21 > 0:31:25if your issue is in the minority in Europe, you can never win.
0:31:25 > 0:31:28So, for instance, there are 19 countries in Europe that grow
0:31:28 > 0:31:31beet sugar and only really two or three that produce cane sugar.
0:31:31 > 0:31:35So every time any type of British government has gone to
0:31:35 > 0:31:38fight our corner in Brussels, no matter how hard they try,
0:31:38 > 0:31:42they always lose, because the numbers are against them.
0:31:42 > 0:31:45That's fine for British sugar beet producers in other
0:31:45 > 0:31:47parts of the country,
0:31:47 > 0:31:51but Tate & Lyle thinks it might risk the whole refinery's future.
0:31:51 > 0:31:54I'm really worried for the jobs and the livelihoods
0:31:54 > 0:31:57and the families of the 850 people that work here in this plant.
0:31:57 > 0:32:00We need Europe to see that this is unfair
0:32:00 > 0:32:03and to do something about it before we get to that point.
0:32:03 > 0:32:06What would you say to people who might suggest that you're
0:32:06 > 0:32:09just complaining about the rule that hits your business,
0:32:09 > 0:32:12and basically everybody's got to deal with that kind of red tape,
0:32:12 > 0:32:13that's just how the world is?
0:32:13 > 0:32:16What I'd say to that is that I accept this is a very
0:32:16 > 0:32:20specific piece of regulation that affects us and the 850 people here
0:32:20 > 0:32:24in a very specific way, but it's really important that people hear
0:32:24 > 0:32:28examples of regulation like this from Europe, good and bad, so that
0:32:28 > 0:32:32they know what to do when they go to the ballot box on June 23rd.
0:32:32 > 0:32:35I'm not naive. I know that people in the UK aren't going to
0:32:35 > 0:32:38vote on the Tate & Lyle Sugars question, but I do think it's
0:32:38 > 0:32:42really important people hear specific examples like this.
0:32:45 > 0:32:49Brussels' rules and regulations clearly cost Tate & Lyle dear...
0:32:51 > 0:32:55..but is it fair to say Brussels' bureaucrats hold the whole
0:32:55 > 0:32:56economy back?
0:32:59 > 0:33:03Justin King ran the supermarket Sainsbury's for a decade.
0:33:03 > 0:33:07I think quite a lot is laid at the door of Europe which isn't
0:33:07 > 0:33:10really their fault, and much of the regulation
0:33:10 > 0:33:13and so-called red tape is necessary.
0:33:13 > 0:33:15Why should we fight against regulation that makes
0:33:15 > 0:33:18products that we make and sell safer?
0:33:18 > 0:33:20That's something that Europe does a lot about.
0:33:20 > 0:33:24If you look at my own history in food, the packaging regulation
0:33:24 > 0:33:28and how the ingredients of food and allergens are communicated.
0:33:28 > 0:33:31That's all European regulation.
0:33:31 > 0:33:34I really struggle to see that that's bad news for consumers.
0:33:34 > 0:33:40So I think this idea that, uniquely, Europe does bad regulation
0:33:40 > 0:33:43and that Westminster would do good regulation,
0:33:43 > 0:33:46well, there's no evidence to support that, in my view.
0:33:46 > 0:33:53And one man's pernickety rule is another political opportunity.
0:33:53 > 0:33:56It is absurd that we are told that you cannot sell
0:33:56 > 0:34:00bananas in bunches of more than two or three bananas.
0:34:00 > 0:34:04You cannot sell bananas with abnormal curvature of the fingers.
0:34:04 > 0:34:05Why should they tell us...
0:34:05 > 0:34:09Why should they tell us how powerful our vacuum cleaners should be?
0:34:14 > 0:34:16Can I have this very big bunch, please?
0:34:18 > 0:34:20Lovely. Thank you.
0:34:20 > 0:34:22As you'll know if you've done the weekly shop
0:34:22 > 0:34:24at any time in living memory,
0:34:24 > 0:34:27you can buy very big bunches of bananas,
0:34:27 > 0:34:29but the reason... Thank you.
0:34:29 > 0:34:33..these have become an unlikely political symbol in this whole scrap
0:34:33 > 0:34:37is that there are regulations about bananas for wholesalers
0:34:37 > 0:34:41and they are exactly the kind of rule and regulation
0:34:41 > 0:34:45that the out campaign would love to get rid of.
0:34:45 > 0:34:48The UK, at the moment, inside the EU,
0:34:48 > 0:34:52is one of the least regulated economies in the world.
0:34:52 > 0:34:54I know that there are some areas, some sectors
0:34:54 > 0:34:57in which EU regulation can be burdensome
0:34:57 > 0:35:01but, overall, the UK is a relatively low regulation economy
0:35:01 > 0:35:03and I think it's inevitable that, if the UK wants
0:35:03 > 0:35:07to have close trade relations with the EU, which we surely would,
0:35:07 > 0:35:11then we still have to accept a substantial amount of EU regulation
0:35:11 > 0:35:14in the same way that Norway and Switzerland,
0:35:14 > 0:35:16other countries that do quite a lot of trade with the EU,
0:35:16 > 0:35:18continue to do so.
0:35:18 > 0:35:21So I don't really see this future for the UK
0:35:21 > 0:35:24as a much less regulated economy than it is now.
0:35:24 > 0:35:26That would be a hard one to manage.
0:35:26 > 0:35:28Godspeed, John Glenn.
0:35:34 > 0:35:37And some of the biggest businesses in the world
0:35:37 > 0:35:41say the EU does the opposite of hold them back.
0:35:41 > 0:35:43It's about freedom.
0:35:43 > 0:35:45Pardon the gag -
0:35:45 > 0:35:49freedom to boldly go where none have gone before.
0:35:49 > 0:35:51Welcome to Mars.
0:35:57 > 0:36:00Well, OK, it's actually a warehouse in Stevenage, in Hertfordshire,
0:36:00 > 0:36:04but this is Bruno, the ExoMars planetary rover,
0:36:04 > 0:36:08designed to hunt for signs of life on Mars.
0:36:08 > 0:36:09It's been made by Airbus,
0:36:09 > 0:36:14a company that's based in France but that has 15,000 staff in the UK,
0:36:14 > 0:36:19and right in the middle of all of this is one big question -
0:36:19 > 0:36:23would these kinds of investments still come to the UK
0:36:23 > 0:36:25if we left the European Union?
0:36:32 > 0:36:35Airbus builds almost everything that can fly,
0:36:35 > 0:36:38from mighty A380s
0:36:38 > 0:36:39to satellites,
0:36:39 > 0:36:42and they're so worried about leaving the EU
0:36:42 > 0:36:47they wrote individual letters to all of their staff to say so.
0:36:47 > 0:36:50Our large aircraft, they're built all around the world
0:36:50 > 0:36:53and they're all brought together in Toulouse,
0:36:53 > 0:36:56and the EU really helps us to do that
0:36:56 > 0:36:59in a seamless way throughout Europe
0:36:59 > 0:37:02and so anything which detracts from that is bad news.
0:37:02 > 0:37:06And how worried would you be, or how worried are you, about the business
0:37:06 > 0:37:07if we leave the EU?
0:37:07 > 0:37:10It will certainly be... It's certainly harder to do business
0:37:10 > 0:37:12when you're crossing the EU boundary.
0:37:12 > 0:37:15We benefit from that free movement of labour,
0:37:15 > 0:37:17of goods, of capital, of ideas
0:37:17 > 0:37:20by being able to work together inside the EU.
0:37:20 > 0:37:22As soon as you go outside of the EU,
0:37:22 > 0:37:25then, by definition, there's going to be changes to that
0:37:25 > 0:37:27and that will affect our future decisions.
0:37:27 > 0:37:29So, to really spell it out, you are clear
0:37:29 > 0:37:33that leaving the EU could see jobs go from the UK
0:37:33 > 0:37:34to other parts of the world?
0:37:34 > 0:37:37Well, next time there's a big decision,
0:37:37 > 0:37:40we really have to have that investment
0:37:40 > 0:37:43and without that investment, the jobs go elsewhere.
0:37:49 > 0:37:54Britain's membership of the EU is one but far from the only reason
0:37:54 > 0:37:58that investors want to spend their cash here.
0:37:58 > 0:38:01Brits are good at some pretty clever stuff,
0:38:01 > 0:38:04our language, our time zone, the people,
0:38:04 > 0:38:08it's a pretty nice place to do business,
0:38:08 > 0:38:12but even some of those who want us to leave the EU
0:38:12 > 0:38:16acknowledge it could be pretty bumpy to begin with.
0:38:18 > 0:38:20There's absolutely no doubt that Brexit
0:38:20 > 0:38:23is positive for the economy, for jobs and investment
0:38:23 > 0:38:26but there's always the possibility, given what's been said,
0:38:26 > 0:38:28that there could be some near-term uncertainty.
0:38:28 > 0:38:31The best way to think of that is a Nike swoosh
0:38:31 > 0:38:34in the sense there might be some uncertainty where confident is hit,
0:38:34 > 0:38:36it doesn't mean jobs are lost,
0:38:36 > 0:38:38and that's the sort of downward part of the swoosh.
0:38:38 > 0:38:40Before then, confidence returns,
0:38:40 > 0:38:44people see that Britain is better able to position itself globally
0:38:44 > 0:38:47and the economy picks up the further ahead one looks.
0:38:49 > 0:38:52But here's one big catch -
0:38:52 > 0:38:56what we make and sell matters,
0:38:56 > 0:38:59but what we do and sell matters even more.
0:38:59 > 0:39:04Services like banking, accountancy, advertising,
0:39:04 > 0:39:07that's where the country really makes its money.
0:39:07 > 0:39:10They're more than three-quarters of the economy
0:39:10 > 0:39:12and if we leave the EU,
0:39:12 > 0:39:16selling to the rest of the market could be tricky.
0:39:18 > 0:39:22Come with me to one of the City's greatest institutions
0:39:22 > 0:39:25and one of its most famous buildings.
0:39:25 > 0:39:30This lot have been trading for more than 300 years.
0:39:32 > 0:39:34This is Lloyd's of London,
0:39:34 > 0:39:39where brokers offered risks for underwriters to insure,
0:39:39 > 0:39:41and these men, members of Lloyd's,
0:39:41 > 0:39:44are still brokers and underwriters.
0:39:48 > 0:39:51Lloyd's are in the risk business
0:39:51 > 0:39:57and they fear, if we leave, the odds for the economy don't look good.
0:39:57 > 0:40:01The continental European insurance market is really important
0:40:01 > 0:40:03and as a whole trading block,
0:40:03 > 0:40:07it actually makes up the world's largest insurance market.
0:40:07 > 0:40:11It provides us one regulatory regime where we can easily do business
0:40:11 > 0:40:14in all of the other European countries.
0:40:14 > 0:40:16So you're saying, at the moment,
0:40:16 > 0:40:18you have one set of rules and regulations
0:40:18 > 0:40:20and, if we left the EU,
0:40:20 > 0:40:23- there might be 27 more sets of rules and regulations.- Yes.
0:40:23 > 0:40:26So, if the UK were to leave the EU, for Lloyd's,
0:40:26 > 0:40:30we would have to individually negotiate with each country
0:40:30 > 0:40:32how we could trade in that country.
0:40:32 > 0:40:36That means there could be numerous different types of regimes
0:40:36 > 0:40:38we have to operate in,
0:40:38 > 0:40:40different regulations we have to comply with,
0:40:40 > 0:40:43different standards we have to comply with.
0:40:43 > 0:40:45A very costly way of doing business.
0:40:45 > 0:40:48Is it, though, something that's an inconvenience for a few years
0:40:48 > 0:40:50or a fundamental threat to your business?
0:40:50 > 0:40:53A potential departure from the EU
0:40:53 > 0:40:56is a fundamental threat to the Lloyd's market.
0:40:56 > 0:41:00We're in the risk business so we're obviously making contingency plans
0:41:00 > 0:41:02should there be a vote to leave,
0:41:02 > 0:41:06but it is a serious risk to our business right now.
0:41:09 > 0:41:12Many of the City's big names believe we'd be crazy
0:41:12 > 0:41:14to take the risk of leaving the EU,
0:41:14 > 0:41:17from HSBC to Goldman Sachs.
0:41:18 > 0:41:23But there are some who refuse to join the herd.
0:41:23 > 0:41:25There's absolutely no doubt
0:41:25 > 0:41:28that London will remain the financial centre of Europe.
0:41:28 > 0:41:33London's competition is no longer Frankfurt, Paris or Amsterdam,
0:41:33 > 0:41:35as it used to be in the past.
0:41:35 > 0:41:38London's competition is New York, Singapore, Hong Kong.
0:41:38 > 0:41:42London and the City needs to position itself globally.
0:41:45 > 0:41:48But if the majority view in the City is right,
0:41:48 > 0:41:51earnings would shrink if we left the EU.
0:41:51 > 0:41:55You might be happy to say goodbye to a few bankers
0:41:55 > 0:41:59but, if it happened, the whole country would be worse off.
0:41:59 > 0:42:01At the moment,
0:42:01 > 0:42:04the UK is the business and financial services centre of Europe
0:42:04 > 0:42:08and that has spread prosperity throughout the UK.
0:42:08 > 0:42:10It's not just the people who work in that industry,
0:42:10 > 0:42:12but it's the spending which they do.
0:42:12 > 0:42:14The spending in shops, the spending in restaurants,
0:42:14 > 0:42:16the houses which they buy
0:42:16 > 0:42:18that spreads incomes and jobs across the UK
0:42:18 > 0:42:22and if that industry shrinks, and I think it would if the UK leaves EU,
0:42:22 > 0:42:25then the economy as a whole would be weaker,
0:42:25 > 0:42:27not just those who work in that industry
0:42:27 > 0:42:30but quite widely across the UK.
0:42:35 > 0:42:36Business isn't the only thing
0:42:36 > 0:42:39that can move freely around the EU, though.
0:42:39 > 0:42:41So can people.
0:42:41 > 0:42:44Under what's called the free movement of labour,
0:42:44 > 0:42:47we can work anywhere we want in the union
0:42:47 > 0:42:53and people from all the other 27 countries can do the same here,
0:42:53 > 0:42:54and they have...
0:42:54 > 0:42:55in huge numbers.
0:42:58 > 0:43:01In his Somerset dairy packing plant,
0:43:01 > 0:43:05around one in eight of Richard Clothier's workforce are immigrants,
0:43:05 > 0:43:08many from Eastern Europe.
0:43:08 > 0:43:11I worry because I've been in here, like, 12 years
0:43:11 > 0:43:15so I'm a citizen of the UK but I haven't got a British passport
0:43:15 > 0:43:17so I don't know what's going to happen.
0:43:17 > 0:43:20If the UK will step out of the EU,
0:43:20 > 0:43:22it could be worse for people like me, myself.
0:43:22 > 0:43:24So, yeah, I do worry about it.
0:43:24 > 0:43:29It depends what's going to happen to people like me.
0:43:29 > 0:43:30You're talking about operations
0:43:30 > 0:43:34that have to run 24 hours a day, seven days a week,
0:43:34 > 0:43:38and when you've got very low levels of population in rural areas,
0:43:38 > 0:43:41it's very difficult to find people that want to work
0:43:41 > 0:43:45outside of nine to five, five days of the week.
0:43:45 > 0:43:47So, without migrant workers, you know,
0:43:47 > 0:43:50the lines would stop, unfortunately.
0:43:53 > 0:43:55At their hovercraft firm,
0:43:55 > 0:44:00Emma and Russ Pullen also employ a couple of Eastern Europeans,
0:44:00 > 0:44:02but Emma would much rather see Brits in work.
0:44:02 > 0:44:06I'm hoping, and we all hope, that, coming out of the EU,
0:44:06 > 0:44:08we can spend more money on apprenticeships
0:44:08 > 0:44:10and get more people that are out there
0:44:10 > 0:44:12into the jobs where they're needed.
0:44:12 > 0:44:14Let's see if we can train our own workforce up
0:44:14 > 0:44:16to get back into roles that we can fill.
0:44:16 > 0:44:20At the same time, we're not going to go open the door on the 24th
0:44:20 > 0:44:23and kick everyone out across the Channel.
0:44:23 > 0:44:27But even Christian from Poland, who's made Kent his home,
0:44:27 > 0:44:30wants out of the EU.
0:44:30 > 0:44:32We should leave united Europe
0:44:32 > 0:44:36just because there's too much immigration and not legal
0:44:36 > 0:44:39and I think it's enough, to be honest.
0:44:39 > 0:44:42I mean, as an immigrant, as well.
0:44:42 > 0:44:46So, if we allow to take more people in UK,
0:44:46 > 0:44:49we're going to be in big trouble, to be honest.
0:44:54 > 0:44:56In the big picture,
0:44:56 > 0:45:00most experts believe immigration has been good for the economy,
0:45:00 > 0:45:04but there is some evidence that it's held wages down
0:45:04 > 0:45:06for some of the lowest paid
0:45:06 > 0:45:09and, broadly, the less well-off you are,
0:45:09 > 0:45:12the more likely you are to want to leave.
0:45:12 > 0:45:15With immigration at the front of many voters' minds,
0:45:15 > 0:45:18the Leave campaign wants you to see this
0:45:18 > 0:45:21as a fight between haves and have-nots.
0:45:21 > 0:45:23They claim the EU's been good for fat cats
0:45:23 > 0:45:26but has left many people behind.
0:45:26 > 0:45:29Win that argument and, when it comes to the vote,
0:45:29 > 0:45:31all bets are off.
0:45:31 > 0:45:33You've characterised this as a battle
0:45:33 > 0:45:36between the elites and the ordinary man.
0:45:36 > 0:45:38You're part of the elite, though, aren't you?
0:45:38 > 0:45:41It is, in a sense, a struggle
0:45:41 > 0:45:46between people who want to take back control
0:45:46 > 0:45:47and a small group of people
0:45:47 > 0:45:51who do very well out of the current system
0:45:51 > 0:45:52and who are able...
0:45:52 > 0:45:56And who know Christine Lagarde and can go mwah-mwah with her on...
0:45:56 > 0:45:58you know, at Davos or whatever it happens to be.
0:45:58 > 0:46:02Of course they're going to be in favour of the system,
0:46:02 > 0:46:04but there are plenty of people
0:46:04 > 0:46:07who want to see proper democratic control,
0:46:07 > 0:46:10who want the democracy of their country restored,
0:46:10 > 0:46:14and feel it's weird that it is simply being given away
0:46:14 > 0:46:16for no particular gain.
0:46:16 > 0:46:19Boris Johnson told us it's a struggle between the ordinary man
0:46:19 > 0:46:22and people who go to Davos and know Christine Lagarde,
0:46:22 > 0:46:25who greet her saying mwah-mwah, kissing on both cheeks.
0:46:25 > 0:46:28Well, look, as I say, the people who are the Leave campaigners
0:46:28 > 0:46:32are not going to be the people who pay the economic price if we leave.
0:46:32 > 0:46:35It will be the ordinary working people of this country
0:46:35 > 0:46:37who see their jobs threatened,
0:46:37 > 0:46:39who see the value of their family home go down,
0:46:39 > 0:46:40who see their wages hit,
0:46:40 > 0:46:44who don't have the certainty of living in a country
0:46:44 > 0:46:45that's trading with the world.
0:46:45 > 0:46:47They are the people who are going to pay the price,
0:46:47 > 0:46:49the working people of Britain,
0:46:49 > 0:46:51if we vote to leave and the economy suffers.
0:46:51 > 0:46:54There is some evidence some people's wages have suffered
0:46:54 > 0:46:56as a result of immigration.
0:46:56 > 0:46:58Aren't they entitled to be a bit fed up about that?
0:46:58 > 0:47:01Well, of course, when it comes to immigration,
0:47:01 > 0:47:04there are very understandable concerns that people have
0:47:04 > 0:47:07and that's why we want to have immigration controls
0:47:07 > 0:47:09so you can't just come to this country
0:47:09 > 0:47:10and get welfare payments and the like,
0:47:10 > 0:47:13you have to put in before you get out,
0:47:13 > 0:47:16but you don't control immigration by wrecking the economy.
0:47:16 > 0:47:19I mean, that would be a crazy approach to take.
0:47:21 > 0:47:25And in the last week, David Cameron and George Osborne
0:47:25 > 0:47:29have gone to DEFCON 1 with their warnings of the economic shock
0:47:29 > 0:47:32we'd face if we choose to go.
0:47:32 > 0:47:35The shock to our economy after leaving Europe
0:47:35 > 0:47:38would tip the country into recession.
0:47:38 > 0:47:44House prices would be hit by at least 10% and as much as 18%.
0:47:44 > 0:47:48The stakes couldn't be higher. The risks couldn't be greater.
0:47:48 > 0:47:51It would be a DIY recession.
0:47:51 > 0:47:56Across Britain, as many as 820,000 jobs could be lost.
0:47:56 > 0:47:59It is the self-destruct option.
0:47:59 > 0:48:01If you believed it would be a catastrophe,
0:48:01 > 0:48:04surely it was terribly irresponsible,
0:48:04 > 0:48:06if it really would hit people as badly as you suggest,
0:48:06 > 0:48:08to offer this vote in the first place.
0:48:08 > 0:48:12It's not irresponsible to ask the British people for their opinion.
0:48:12 > 0:48:14It's not irresponsible to trust the people
0:48:14 > 0:48:16with the future of this country
0:48:16 > 0:48:20and I think the British people will take a mature and sensible judgment
0:48:20 > 0:48:23that we are better off remaining in this reformed European Union,
0:48:23 > 0:48:25that we don't want to take a leap in the dark,
0:48:25 > 0:48:28that we don't want all the uncertainty and the risk
0:48:28 > 0:48:31and the economic cost that would come from leaving the EU.
0:48:31 > 0:48:34Donnez-moi un break, as we say in Brussels.
0:48:34 > 0:48:38Here we are now with the most extraordinary avalanche
0:48:38 > 0:48:43of scaremongering, a sort of Himalayan snow job of statistics
0:48:43 > 0:48:45about how things are going to go wrong.
0:48:45 > 0:48:47If that's what you think,
0:48:47 > 0:48:49how will you be able to trust your colleagues in future?
0:48:49 > 0:48:52Look, I think we've got to be very clear what's going on here, Laura.
0:48:52 > 0:48:56They are obviously determined to try to win this referendum
0:48:56 > 0:48:58by one means or another.
0:48:58 > 0:49:01And I think that the means they have chosen,
0:49:01 > 0:49:04because the focus groups and the polling seem to indicate that
0:49:04 > 0:49:08that's the most productive line of attack, is to escalate the risk.
0:49:11 > 0:49:14And not so long ago, the Prime Minister
0:49:14 > 0:49:17was rather more relaxed about it all.
0:49:17 > 0:49:19Now, I'm not saying for one moment
0:49:19 > 0:49:21that Britain couldn't survive
0:49:21 > 0:49:22outside the European Union.
0:49:22 > 0:49:25Of course we could. We are a great country.
0:49:25 > 0:49:28The question is whether we'd be more successful in than out.
0:49:28 > 0:49:32Whether being in the European Union adds to our economic security
0:49:32 > 0:49:34or detracts from it.
0:49:34 > 0:49:36Ultimately, it will be the judgment of the British people
0:49:36 > 0:49:38in the referendum I promised.
0:49:38 > 0:49:42The politicians disagree on the risks and the statistics.
0:49:42 > 0:49:44They always do.
0:49:44 > 0:49:49But the balance of evidence from the economists and number-crunchers
0:49:49 > 0:49:54does suggest that leaving the EU would cost the British economy.
0:49:54 > 0:49:56In the longer run,
0:49:56 > 0:49:58we will be a bit worse off than we otherwise would be.
0:49:58 > 0:50:00Now, we're a rich country,
0:50:00 > 0:50:04we can afford to grow a bit more slowly than we otherwise would.
0:50:04 > 0:50:08Most forecasts don't expect there to be a very big
0:50:08 > 0:50:11and very prolonged recession, this is something that's survivable.
0:50:11 > 0:50:14This is something that's not disastrous.
0:50:14 > 0:50:16But it is something that I think's important to take into account
0:50:16 > 0:50:20when making the choice about our future in the EU
0:50:20 > 0:50:23and whether that cost is worth the benefits
0:50:23 > 0:50:25that might accrue in other parts of the debate.
0:50:31 > 0:50:34With it all so uncertain, the way you choose to vote
0:50:34 > 0:50:38might depend on how you feel about taking a risk.
0:50:38 > 0:50:39What would you like?
0:50:39 > 0:50:43Right, OK. Well, I like the sound of Sacred Trust.
0:50:43 > 0:50:47'Whichever way we go, it could be a bit of a gamble.'
0:50:47 > 0:50:49Do you think it's a risk?
0:50:49 > 0:50:52Well, nobody knows one way or the other, do they?
0:50:52 > 0:50:55You pays your money, you takes your choice.
0:50:55 > 0:50:58- All right, I'm going to do each way on Sacred Trust.- Each way.
0:50:58 > 0:51:00- Yeah.- 250 each way, he's sixth.
0:51:09 > 0:51:13'The Remain side want you to think coming out is an almighty gamble...'
0:51:15 > 0:51:18- TANNOY:- Outside line, Sacred Trust...
0:51:19 > 0:51:21Come on!
0:51:21 > 0:51:26'..a gamble with your job, your mortgage, your future.'
0:51:26 > 0:51:27Oh!
0:51:29 > 0:51:30Nearly, nearly.
0:51:34 > 0:51:37'But what if staying in the EU was a gamble, too?'
0:51:43 > 0:51:45The EU is in trouble.
0:51:47 > 0:51:51Some believe its economic problems are so fundamental,
0:51:51 > 0:51:53the euro may yet collapse.
0:51:53 > 0:51:55Hi, good afternoon.
0:51:55 > 0:51:58Well, we've got some important work to do today and tomorrow
0:51:58 > 0:51:59and it's going to be hard.
0:52:02 > 0:52:04Part of the plan to keep the currency together is
0:52:04 > 0:52:07tighter common controls on their economies -
0:52:07 > 0:52:10moving closer together, not further apart.
0:52:13 > 0:52:17We're not in the euro, but we can't escape its effects.
0:52:18 > 0:52:21The EU is moving in fundamentally the wrong direction.
0:52:21 > 0:52:24As you know, the euro is in dire trouble.
0:52:24 > 0:52:26They're trying to prop it up.
0:52:26 > 0:52:29What's happening in Greece is by no means solved.
0:52:29 > 0:52:31The Italian banks are basically bust.
0:52:31 > 0:52:33They're going to have to go forward with measures
0:52:33 > 0:52:35to lock Europe together ever tighter.
0:52:35 > 0:52:38It's been clear that we can't get out from under
0:52:38 > 0:52:40the consequences of that.
0:52:40 > 0:52:43They are going to want to create a fiscal union
0:52:43 > 0:52:47in which the Single Market institutions would be used,
0:52:47 > 0:52:50Britain could not escape and could not escape paying for it.
0:52:50 > 0:52:54Do you accept there are some risks of staying in the EU?
0:52:54 > 0:52:55No, I don't.
0:52:55 > 0:52:57I think Britain has the best of both worlds.
0:52:57 > 0:53:00We're in the Single Market, that's the crucial free-trade zone
0:53:00 > 0:53:03that supports a lot of jobs in Britain.
0:53:03 > 0:53:06But we are not in the euro single currency.
0:53:06 > 0:53:09We're not in the single border area that have caused these problems
0:53:09 > 0:53:10on the continent of Europe.
0:53:10 > 0:53:14It's a complete illusion to think that we would somehow
0:53:14 > 0:53:16protect ourselves by cutting ourselves off
0:53:16 > 0:53:18from the continent of Europe.
0:53:18 > 0:53:21A huge amount of our jobs and prosperity depends on that.
0:53:21 > 0:53:23I'd rather do what Britain has always done,
0:53:23 > 0:53:25which is get stuck in, fight our corner,
0:53:25 > 0:53:27win our arguments, win our battles.
0:53:27 > 0:53:30We should have self-confidence in our country's ability to shape
0:53:30 > 0:53:32the world and shape our continent,
0:53:32 > 0:53:34rather than pulling up the drawbridge.
0:53:34 > 0:53:37That's always been a disaster for Britain when we've done that
0:53:37 > 0:53:39in the past, and we shouldn't do it in the future.
0:53:41 > 0:53:43Are you willing to take a punt on leaving?
0:53:43 > 0:53:45I'm very much like that.
0:53:45 > 0:53:48It's a hard decision to make. It's been really tough.
0:53:48 > 0:53:50Why do you think it's difficult?
0:53:50 > 0:53:52Because you get so many scare stories from each side
0:53:52 > 0:53:57and it's a decision, if you get it wrong, both sides say
0:53:57 > 0:54:00the implications if you get it wrong are huge.
0:54:02 > 0:54:04What's difficult about this decision,
0:54:04 > 0:54:06that we have to be honest about,
0:54:06 > 0:54:09is that it is all a bit of a gamble.
0:54:09 > 0:54:12You're being asked to choose between a hypothetical universe
0:54:12 > 0:54:15outside the European Union
0:54:15 > 0:54:19or staying in something that is already changing.
0:54:19 > 0:54:23There is a lot that no politician and no expert can tell you.
0:54:23 > 0:54:26There's a lot that we just don't know.
0:54:32 > 0:54:37So without certainty, you're left with a choice between two visions...
0:54:38 > 0:54:41..of how we might win or lose.
0:54:42 > 0:54:45Well, if we vote to leave the EU, the country will be poorer
0:54:45 > 0:54:48and the families in the country will be poorer.
0:54:48 > 0:54:51In the short term, we'd tip into recession
0:54:51 > 0:54:54and half a million jobs or more would be lost.
0:54:54 > 0:54:56And in the longer term,
0:54:56 > 0:54:59families would be worse off because we'd be trading less and
0:54:59 > 0:55:02doing less business with the rest of the world, and the overwhelming
0:55:02 > 0:55:06consensus is that Britain would be worse off if we left the EU.
0:55:06 > 0:55:09I think we'd be richer, I think we'd be more prosperous,
0:55:09 > 0:55:11we'd be a more dynamic economy.
0:55:11 > 0:55:14And there's all sorts of ways in which the EU holds us back.
0:55:14 > 0:55:16And it would be a massive opportunity for us
0:55:16 > 0:55:19to reorientate Britain.
0:55:19 > 0:55:22I think it's almost inevitable that in the near term,
0:55:22 > 0:55:27the first two, three years or so, that the UK would be poorer.
0:55:27 > 0:55:30The economy would be weaker if we leave the EU.
0:55:30 > 0:55:32But if you look ahead ten, 20 or 30 years,
0:55:32 > 0:55:36it would depend much more on what policies the UK puts in place,
0:55:36 > 0:55:39either inside the EU or if we're outside the EU.
0:55:39 > 0:55:43It's quite possible for the UK economy to prosper outside the EU
0:55:43 > 0:55:45if we manage our affairs well.
0:55:49 > 0:55:50In just over three weeks,
0:55:50 > 0:55:54we'll wake up and the choice will have been made.
0:55:54 > 0:55:57Our decision will shape not just our own futures,
0:55:57 > 0:56:00but our children's and grandchildren's, too.
0:56:00 > 0:56:05If you wake up on June 24th and we've voted to leave the EU,
0:56:05 > 0:56:07what will you feel?
0:56:07 > 0:56:09I'll feel good.
0:56:09 > 0:56:14I'd quote Norman Lamont from leaving the exchange rate mechanism in 1992,
0:56:14 > 0:56:16"I'll be singing in the bath."
0:56:16 > 0:56:19- What will you sing? - Well, La Marseillaise?
0:56:23 > 0:56:27If we vote to leave, and I hear it on the radio in the morning,
0:56:27 > 0:56:32my gut reaction will be, you know, a bit of fear, uncertainty
0:56:32 > 0:56:34and quite worried, to be honest.
0:56:38 > 0:56:41On the 24th, I hope I wake up with a really big headache
0:56:41 > 0:56:44and I hope that we are having... You know, there should be
0:56:44 > 0:56:47parties on the streets because it's our independence day.
0:56:49 > 0:56:54Personally, independent from any, you know, economic analysis
0:56:54 > 0:56:57and financial consequences, I would be sad.
0:57:00 > 0:57:03How would you celebrate?
0:57:03 > 0:57:08With some...some produce from our friends and partners
0:57:08 > 0:57:10- over the Channel.- French Champagne?
0:57:10 > 0:57:14Probably. Which will be just as cheap as it is now.
0:57:14 > 0:57:16Obviously I'd be very disappointed
0:57:16 > 0:57:20and very anxious about what the country faced,
0:57:20 > 0:57:22the enormous uncertainty which would, of course,
0:57:22 > 0:57:26would hit within hours of us voting to leave the EU.
0:57:26 > 0:57:30And, unfortunately, there will be a heavy price to be paid for that.
0:57:35 > 0:57:39Any election is asking you to take a punt about the future.
0:57:39 > 0:57:43In this campaign, claims of disaster or opportunity,
0:57:43 > 0:57:45well, they're punts, too.
0:57:45 > 0:57:51Guesses made by very smart people, but guesses nonetheless.
0:57:51 > 0:57:55It's true most of the evidence suggests we'd be worse off
0:57:55 > 0:57:58in the short term if we choose to leave.
0:57:58 > 0:58:01But when it comes to the years and decades ahead,
0:58:01 > 0:58:03it's much harder to predict.
0:58:03 > 0:58:08How we earn our living as a country is important, of course,
0:58:08 > 0:58:11but it's up to all of us to mull that over
0:58:11 > 0:58:14with the other parts of being in the European club.
0:58:14 > 0:58:18Not just whether we're richer or poorer,
0:58:18 > 0:58:21but who we are and who's in charge.