:00:11. > :00:21.More bulletins throughout the night. A world of ice transformed into
:00:21. > :00:22.
:00:22. > :00:32.slush. The Arctic has melted to a record extent. Scientists are
:00:32. > :00:33.
:00:33. > :00:39.stunned. It is amazing as a scientist. It is unprecedented.
:00:39. > :00:47.polar wildlife is having to cope. But the implications could reach
:00:47. > :00:57.far from over. The global weather may be disrupted. Such is the scale
:00:57. > :01:03.
:01:03. > :01:09.of change. It is now beyond doubt that the Arctic is under Chiari
:01:09. > :01:14.extraordinary change. In the past decade, scientists who specialise
:01:14. > :01:24.in this region have been changing their assessments of what will
:01:24. > :01:25.
:01:25. > :01:33.happen. At the end of the century, we thought we would not see ice in
:01:33. > :01:43.the summer. Now they say it could happen much sooner. We are
:01:43. > :02:02.
:02:02. > :02:08.investigating to try and understand Our journey takes us to a group of
:02:08. > :02:15.islands in the High Arctic. This is the last of four flights from
:02:15. > :02:21.London. Below us is a remote and mountainous land. Through the
:02:21. > :02:29.clouds, we can see the glaciers. Their surfaces are scarred by
:02:29. > :02:36.crevasses. Our destination is the frontline of arctic science. A
:02:36. > :02:42.research station built as Paula central. Researchers are finding
:02:42. > :02:48.huge change. We have come to witness it. This is the sound to
:02:48. > :02:54.get when you arrive over millions of fragments of ice. Some of the
:02:54. > :03:04.pieces look small enough to hold. Some are the size of boulder. Some
:03:04. > :03:08.
:03:08. > :03:18.are miniaturised bricks. -- ice boat. This is where the ice splits
:03:18. > :03:28.away and falls into the ocean. We see the process for ourselves. It
:03:28. > :03:28.
:03:28. > :03:38.is a spectacular sight. Vast sections of the glacier break apart,
:03:38. > :03:45.
:03:45. > :03:52.right in front of us. We have to keep a safe distance. The ice can
:03:52. > :04:00.fly a long way. This glacier has retreated so far and so fast that
:04:00. > :04:05.the maps had to be changed. The Land Rover on the right was thought
:04:05. > :04:15.to be connected to the land on the left. But when the ice finished, it
:04:15. > :04:25.was revealed to be an island. How diagnosis area well. He worked on
:04:25. > :04:25.
:04:25. > :04:32.the BBC's television series frozen planet. The can see the -- you can
:04:32. > :04:42.see the difference every year. This used to be closed last winter, now
:04:42. > :04:45.
:04:45. > :04:51.it is will open. This year it has been nice free around the islands.
:04:51. > :04:57.I have stopped looking at them. There is nothing to study. It is
:04:57. > :05:00.just water. There is evidence of change all around us. The
:05:00. > :05:08.international director of the Norwegian Polar Institute says you
:05:08. > :05:18.cannot miss it. Tell us how this area has changed in recent years?
:05:18. > :05:19.
:05:19. > :05:26.You can seal the soil picking up. This was a solid piece of ice. It
:05:26. > :05:33.has increased by half a metre, maybe more. It has been melting
:05:33. > :05:43.away. Quite dramatically, I must say. It is something you see in all
:05:43. > :05:45.
:05:45. > :05:52.the clays used. -- last years. Overall, you're in a sport giving
:05:52. > :06:00.signs in an area that is going to a dramatic change. Yes. We are seen
:06:00. > :06:06.change. We are seeing accelerated change. The greatest transformation
:06:06. > :06:13.is out at sea. A cross the expense of the Arctic Ocean, this summer
:06:13. > :06:17.has triggered a record-breaking melt. This is a Norwegian ice-
:06:17. > :06:24.breaker. Part of a major international effort to investigate
:06:24. > :06:32.what has happened. The retreat of the Arctic ice has become one of
:06:32. > :06:39.the most urgent scientific questions of our time. Every summer,
:06:39. > :06:45.massive swathes of frozen ocean not. Ice is breaking up in a heavy swell.
:06:45. > :06:50.Windy winter comes, the waters will freeze again. But the past 30 years
:06:50. > :06:59.have seen the steady decline. We know that from satellite pictures.
:06:59. > :07:06.But there is other data as well. A helicopter lifts a hi-tech centre
:07:06. > :07:11.in the air. When the instrument is suspended below the helicopter and
:07:11. > :07:16.flown over the eyes, it emits an electromagnetic signal. This
:07:16. > :07:20.provides a crucial measurement for how thick the ice is. It is an
:07:20. > :07:28.indicator of how long it might last. All signs point to rid getting
:07:28. > :07:38.thinner and weaker. The results the to be defied. That is done the old
:07:38. > :07:38.
:07:38. > :07:44.fashioned way - a drilling. Teams go out onto the ice. They after the
:07:44. > :07:52.most accurate data they can get. It is tough and hazardous. But vital
:07:52. > :07:59.to building a picture. During a break, the ship calls in at the
:07:59. > :08:03.research station. It is a chance to get on board and speak to the
:08:03. > :08:13.scientists. These are cautious people. They do not jump to
:08:13. > :08:13.
:08:13. > :08:20.conclusions. The latest findings are explained. This is a record low.
:08:20. > :08:30.An extent that amazed all scientists. You can compare it to
:08:30. > :08:34.
:08:34. > :08:40.2012. It is much lower, even in the last. Much lower. It is amazing as
:08:40. > :08:45.a scientist. This is unprecedented. It is truly amazing. It is a
:08:45. > :08:55.dramatic change in the system. does it represent? What is
:08:55. > :08:56.
:08:56. > :09:03.happening? You are losing sea ice volume. It is becoming thinner. It
:09:03. > :09:11.is manifested in what we see here. If the fitness goes down to zero,
:09:11. > :09:18.the sea ice disappears. So the milk is far faster than predicted.
:09:18. > :09:22.Computer models have underestimated how rapidly things can change. The
:09:23. > :09:26.Arctic is warming faster than any other region on earth. The reason
:09:26. > :09:32.for that is when the race of the Sun Land on the bright white
:09:32. > :09:38.surface of the ice, most of the energy is reflected back into space.
:09:38. > :09:44.But when the ice retreats and melts, does raise fall in on the darker
:09:44. > :09:51.surface of the ocean. That is warming the ocean. It is melting
:09:51. > :10:01.the ice. A vicious cycle begins. It is an acceleration of this dramatic
:10:01. > :10:01.
:10:02. > :10:11.trend. The ice is sculpted into extraordinary shapes. Warm water
:10:11. > :10:18.and warm air take their toll. It will not vanish overnight. There
:10:18. > :10:23.will always be freezing conditions during the polar winter. But the
:10:23. > :10:33.days when the sun is here might be clear of ice and it is getting
:10:33. > :10:39.closer. It is a greater change than we could have imagined. Even ten
:10:39. > :10:49.years ago. It has taken us by surprise. We are trying to
:10:49. > :10:50.
:10:50. > :10:55.understand the system. We mustered just our feelings. -- must adjust.
:10:55. > :11:05.The little settlement plays a pivotal role in Polar Research. It
:11:05. > :11:06.
:11:06. > :11:12.is run by Norway. In its heart is a statue of a famous Norwegian. It is
:11:12. > :11:19.the first man to the south pole. Now his gaze is joined by another
:11:19. > :11:23.set of eyes. Those of a Chinese line. China is one of a dozen
:11:23. > :11:29.countries with an outpost here. There is growing international
:11:29. > :11:33.interest in the Arctic. Footholds in the name of science. This
:11:33. > :11:38.community, which is now dedicated to science, began life as a mining
:11:38. > :11:45.town. There is coal in these mountains. For much of the last
:11:45. > :11:51.century it was extracted and then ferry towards the shore line. It
:11:51. > :11:55.was waiting for a break in the ice. It is ironic that a place that was
:11:55. > :12:05.founded on the extraction of fossil fuels is now devoted to tracking
:12:05. > :12:05.
:12:05. > :12:09.their effect on the atmosphere. This place is all about data. Hard
:12:09. > :12:16.facts gathered care for Italy. Every day, a weather balloon is
:12:16. > :12:20.launched. -- gathered carefully. This is standard procedure.
:12:20. > :12:26.Gathering readings so that any change can be properly measured. So
:12:26. > :12:32.the consequences can be assessed. Tiny sea creatures are under a
:12:32. > :12:37.microscope. One major research effort looks into the ecology of
:12:37. > :12:47.the Arctic Ocean. The scientists want to know exactly what clubs
:12:47. > :12:50.
:12:50. > :12:57.here. How every level of the marine One experiment involves a
:12:57. > :13:01.collection of cramps. This study is into everything that lives on the
:13:01. > :13:08.seabed and insight of the sediment. Much of the Arctic ecology is still
:13:08. > :13:13.not known. This is a real chance to get a close look at it. Two German
:13:13. > :13:17.research students here for the summer explain what they are
:13:17. > :13:23.investigating. Basic work to understand what is going on down
:13:23. > :13:27.there. If you can understand what is lying on down there, you can
:13:27. > :13:32.detect changes and you can measure how climate change or view the
:13:32. > :13:38.warming of the water, icebergs growing or whatever, has an effect
:13:38. > :13:46.on the species and the composition of these species. This one should
:13:46. > :13:54.go back in the water. (LAUGHS). Higher up the food chain, a bearded
:13:54. > :14:02.seal rise on an ice floe for this animal is having a harder time with
:14:02. > :14:08.less eyes. Others are doing better. It is a complicated pattern. And at
:14:08. > :14:13.the top of the food chain, a poll that they filmed by the Norwegian
:14:13. > :14:18.scientists. Polar bears need the ice so they can hunt seals. How
:14:18. > :14:23.they might hunt and a doubt find out major questions. The impact of
:14:23. > :14:29.the warming will reach far beyond the Arctic. It could even affect
:14:29. > :14:34.the patterns of the weather. Compare the average summer not to
:14:34. > :14:39.how much ice is left at the end of this summer. That is bound to have
:14:39. > :14:46.repercussions and could even affect the jet stream, shifting its path,
:14:46. > :14:50.meaning wetter summers for Britain and other disruptions elsewhere.
:14:50. > :14:55.What we found was that in circumstances where the Arctic sea
:14:55. > :15:00.ice the juices in summer, and if they are warmer than average
:15:00. > :15:07.temperatures on the surface of the ocean, these will lead to heavy
:15:07. > :15:15.storms across the UK in summer. That leads to cooler summers. The
:15:15. > :15:19.connection between C Rice, water surface temperature, the
:15:19. > :15:24.composition of the jet stream is complicated. But we believe it will
:15:24. > :15:28.lead to a cooler summer. It is early days for the signs. There is
:15:28. > :15:33.a lot of researchers do not understand. But the role of the jet
:15:33. > :15:40.stream is known to be crucially important. The idea that Arctic
:15:40. > :15:45.melt could shift it is being taken seriously. The past summer in
:15:45. > :15:49.Britain was notorious. Storm after storm have made this the wettest
:15:49. > :15:54.summer for a 100 years. The consequences were serious with
:15:54. > :16:00.widespread flooding and damage to farm land. The reason for this was
:16:00. > :16:06.that the jet stream was further south than usual. Where it flows
:16:06. > :16:09.really matters. At the same time, the US was baking in a series of
:16:09. > :16:15.record-breaking droughts and heatwaves. Fields dried up and
:16:15. > :16:21.crops were ruined. Global food prices started to rise as a result.
:16:21. > :16:28.This was the opposite of Britain's weather but the jet stream was all
:16:28. > :16:36.they to blame, this time, flowing too far to the north. The effects
:16:36. > :16:41.of this change could be widespread. The entire atmosphere is connected.
:16:41. > :16:48.And the weather systems as we know them will shift with the wind. The
:16:48. > :16:58.wind is controlled by the temperature distribution on the
:16:58. > :17:00.
:17:00. > :17:05.surface. When there is no vice in the Arctic, -- ice in the Arctic,
:17:05. > :17:12.that change will influence wind systems and where the weather
:17:12. > :17:17.systems eye. That means northern Europe, Scandinavia, will probably
:17:17. > :17:24.get more precipitation. Southern Europe, the Mediterranean, will
:17:24. > :17:30.become drier. The scientists are assessing the consequences of the
:17:30. > :17:34.big melt. They are also investigating its probable causes.
:17:34. > :17:39.One part of the research is to investigate what is in the air -
:17:39. > :17:42.the greenhouse gases involved in climate change. To do that, they
:17:42. > :17:48.have set up right on top of this mountain to get away from any
:17:48. > :17:57.possible sources of local pollution. To get up there, we have to use of
:17:57. > :18:06.contraption - a miniature cable car. This is one of the most
:18:06. > :18:11.exhilarating minds up this side of any mountain. It will get us up to
:18:11. > :18:19.the top of the mountain where the laboratory is installed. The view
:18:19. > :18:27.from up here is stunning. Fiords and glaciers. Slightly slowing as
:18:27. > :18:31.we approach the destination. Here, there is some of the most sensitive
:18:31. > :18:38.equipment you can get. It is part of a network of monitoring stations
:18:38. > :18:44.around the world. We know that the sea ice is retreating, glaciers
:18:44. > :18:48.like this one are shrinking and the Arctic is warming. But what is
:18:48. > :18:54.causing all of this? Clearly, natural factors are at work. There
:18:54. > :18:59.are cycles through the ocean currents and the output of the Sun.
:18:59. > :19:04.But scientists are sure that on top of those, mankind is definitely
:19:04. > :19:08.having an effect. They say they know that because of what they are
:19:08. > :19:15.finding out here. His master gathers air and measures carbon-
:19:15. > :19:20.dioxide and other greenhouse gases building up in the atmosphere. --
:19:20. > :19:24.this measuring device. Inside, the instruments measure the levels of
:19:24. > :19:29.greenhouse gases. This is done the same way around the world and the
:19:29. > :19:37.results are brought together to produce a definitive picture. Here
:19:37. > :19:42.it is. This shows an obvious rise in carbon dioxide year after year.
:19:42. > :19:47.We always have warm years and cold years and natural variations but it
:19:47. > :19:55.is quite evident now that because of the man-made emissions, there is
:19:55. > :20:01.a huge impact on the global temperature change. Including in
:20:01. > :20:07.the Arctic? Especially in the Arctic. This does mark a shift in
:20:07. > :20:11.scientific opinion. The evidence of a human hand in Iraq to change,
:20:11. > :20:18.according to more and more researchers, is becoming more
:20:18. > :20:25.common. -- Arctic change. There is more evidence that the changes we
:20:25. > :20:34.see are being caused by mankind. The patterns in the changes are
:20:34. > :20:38.consistent with what the models say that greenhouse gas warming should
:20:38. > :20:46.give. And it is increasingly difficult to explain these changes
:20:46. > :20:51.has just coincident. A keen wind heralds the end of
:20:51. > :20:58.summer. Temperatures will come at once the poll that night approaches.
:20:58. > :21:03.During the filming of this programme, we have been filing news
:21:03. > :21:11.reports that have resulted in a range of reactions. People who say
:21:11. > :21:16.that global warming is a hoax have accused me of scaremongering. I am
:21:16. > :21:21.guided by the facts. The evidence gathered out on these waters by
:21:21. > :21:26.some very diligent scientists. What they are finding out points in one
:21:26. > :21:31.unmistakable direction - that the Arctic ice cap, a permanent feature
:21:31. > :21:35.of the planet throughout human history, is now set to become a