:00:08. > :00:17.It was up to my waist, in that room there. The storms keep raging. There
:00:18. > :00:22.is no end in sight. Can we afford to keep the sea out at all cost. If you
:00:23. > :00:26.invest three times what we do now, that is what is needed. Do you know
:00:27. > :00:30.what the cost is? We recognise the demand is going to grow. Stark plans
:00:31. > :00:35.have been drawn for another option, where some communities might have to
:00:36. > :00:40.be abandoned. The cost of defending this place would be too high. Who
:00:41. > :00:44.would buy a house in a flails they know didn't going to be there in 20
:00:45. > :00:49.years time. The shoreline is retreating. You can see it with your
:00:50. > :01:13.own eyes. Let's wake up and smell the coffee, as they say.
:01:14. > :01:19.NEWS REEL: With are having a wonderful time
:01:20. > :01:22.here. Wish you were here. Yesterday we went to see the little railway at
:01:23. > :01:34.Fairbourne. Fairbourne is famous for its light
:01:35. > :01:38.railway and happy holiday memories. A community of homes and businesses
:01:39. > :01:41.at the mouth of the Mawddach estuary. They're already working to
:01:42. > :01:45.get the main attraction ready for another busy season. It's not just
:01:46. > :01:49.the way railway that's in need of maintenance. Like other coastal
:01:50. > :01:58.communities, the winter storms have taken their toll. Sonia Norton moved
:01:59. > :02:02.to Fairbourne 14 years ago. Just liked the house. Looked at several,
:02:03. > :02:06.looked at Llanbedr and Dyffryn and various places. I just liked this
:02:07. > :02:11.house as soon as I came into it. When you have storms, how dramatic
:02:12. > :02:15.does it get? It's lovely. I go up on the top to see it. It's brilliant.
:02:16. > :02:20.It's lovely. Really stormy weather is really good to look at. January,
:02:21. > :02:25.the storm came much closer to home. This is from the front, the very
:02:26. > :02:30.first instant when it came over. It gradually got worse and worse as the
:02:31. > :02:35.morning went on. That's the bit between the two houses. It was like
:02:36. > :02:38.the sea, wasn't it? You're looking at it completely there. That's the
:02:39. > :02:45.bamboo there, look. That's how deep it was at that point. The flooding
:02:46. > :02:49.that you've just suffered? Yes. Did that come as a shock? I didn't
:02:50. > :02:52.think... I mean, I could see it splashing over at the other end of
:02:53. > :02:57.the road there. You could see it very clearly coming over there.
:02:58. > :03:00.We've had sprewn and things like that blowing over when the tide is
:03:01. > :03:06.high. I didn't really expect it to come over, no. When you think that
:03:07. > :03:10.those dragon's teeth and pill box have been there since the Second
:03:11. > :03:17.World War without any disturbance. It was a very, you know, one-off
:03:18. > :03:20.thing, I'm sure. Fairbourne isn't just threatened by the sea. It's
:03:21. > :03:24.also at risk from the river estuary and from water running off the
:03:25. > :03:28.mountains behind. ?6 million has been spent on defences, but as
:03:29. > :03:30.conditions deteriorate, what will it take to keep it and other coastal
:03:31. > :03:47.towns safe? Wales's coastal communities have
:03:48. > :03:51.taken a pounding. Before Christmas, in January, and again this month.
:03:52. > :04:10.After the storms, the clean-up. It's a nice day on the beach today,
:04:11. > :04:15.a month ago the coast of Wales was battered by some of the worst storms
:04:16. > :04:21.we've seen in years. Here in Aberystwyth, the clearing up goes
:04:22. > :04:30.on. As weather patterns change, the big question is - how are we going
:04:31. > :04:34.to defend our shores in future? There are hundreds of communities
:04:35. > :04:38.clustered around our coasts. For many, a home by the sea is the
:04:39. > :04:45.dream. According to National Resources Wales, more than 62,000
:04:46. > :04:47.homes are at risk of flooding. This winter, the risk became reality in
:04:48. > :05:03.Rhyl. This is Ivy and Barry Marson's
:05:04. > :05:06.temporary home. They have been here since Christmas because in early
:05:07. > :05:14.December their dream bungalow was flooded by the sea. Nice to meet
:05:15. > :05:19.you. It was a Thursday. We got up, my daughter took us shopping.
:05:20. > :05:26.Dropped us in Morrisons. My daughter's next door neighbour, Ali
:05:27. > :05:32.came, I said, "she is looking ever so worried, I wonder if something is
:05:33. > :05:41.the matter". She said "your bungalow is flooded." I says, "flooded has
:05:42. > :05:49.the washer gone?" He said "no, it's the sea." I said, "no, I can't
:05:50. > :05:53.believe that." We stood the opposite side of the road. When I saw... Did
:05:54. > :05:59.see it, I've never had such an experience in my life. I just had a
:06:00. > :06:04.cold, shakey feeling and I just couldn't stop crying. Did the issue
:06:05. > :06:08.about flooding ever come up at the time when you bought it? No. No-one
:06:09. > :06:14.mentioned flooding at all. It was never, never even thought about.
:06:15. > :06:18.Because they had built up some of the walls up and put all those rocks
:06:19. > :06:22.by the splash point. Whether that was going to do anything, I don't
:06:23. > :06:27.know. No, I was just so happy to be there, in a nice little bungalow, by
:06:28. > :06:37.the sea, which, to us, was a dream come true. Ivy's road is now full of
:06:38. > :06:39.skips. She can't bear to see it. The builders are in and home won't be
:06:40. > :06:50.home again until August. Ivy's daughter, Chrissie, was there
:06:51. > :06:55.when the house flooded. It was up to my waist in that room there. In
:06:56. > :07:00.here, I would imagine it was about to there. To there. It would have
:07:01. > :07:05.totally ruined everything in this room up to that height? Everything.
:07:06. > :07:10.Everything. It just creeped in. It got deeper and deeper. It just
:07:11. > :07:15.seemed to be going on and on in a matter of seconds. You must have
:07:16. > :07:18.been frantic? Frantic or adrenaline. We just wanted to try and save as
:07:19. > :07:23.much as we could, that we could pick up. We couldn't pick nothing up, it
:07:24. > :07:29.was all under water by then. It frightened you? Yes, certainly, it
:07:30. > :07:32.has. Because what if it had happened in the middle of the night? I
:07:33. > :07:45.wouldn't be here now. I would be in a wooden box in the cemetery.
:07:46. > :07:50.There are vulnerable communities all along the North Wales coast. One
:07:51. > :07:54.local councillor has been campaigning for years for more
:07:55. > :07:59.sophisticated defences to keep people safe. As far as the coast are
:08:00. > :08:04.concerned, people living here are in the front-line. If 's a rearguard
:08:05. > :08:10.action, armies don't leave their troops, they don't abond o --
:08:11. > :08:14.abandon them. The Government has to get behind our residents here and
:08:15. > :08:17.help them. We have seen what the sea is capable of doing. The indications
:08:18. > :08:21.are that it's only going to get worse. We have talked to the
:08:22. > :08:25.residents here, they don't want massively high defences here. The if
:08:26. > :08:28.you did that, of course, the consequences, if there is ever a
:08:29. > :08:32.breach, would be even more enormous. It's about creating space for water
:08:33. > :08:38.throughout to the sea, but also using that space in a creative way.
:08:39. > :08:42.In the the winter storms, North Wales was first to be hit, but there
:08:43. > :08:51.was plenty more to come. All around our coasts, sea defences have been
:08:52. > :08:57.battered. In Aberystwyth, Barmouth, Aberdovey, Newgale and here in
:08:58. > :09:00.Fairbourne. For Sonia Norton, it's the first real evidence of her
:09:01. > :09:06.vulnerability. So before you moved here, you lived up a mountain? Yes.
:09:07. > :09:12.How far up a mountain? 650 feet. When you decided to move here, what
:09:13. > :09:16.attracted you to Fairbourne? Flat land really, because Frank being
:09:17. > :09:20.ill. Yes. Husband? Yes. Better access, yes. That was, basically,
:09:21. > :09:26.it. He didn't think I could manage up on the mountain by myself. We
:09:27. > :09:30.knew it would be by myself, he was ill at that point. The issue of
:09:31. > :09:34.flooding or being at risk at all occur to you? No, not at that time.
:09:35. > :09:38.It didn't, no. Maybe I was putting my head in the sand. But, no, I had
:09:39. > :09:43.other things to think about at the time. Had you -- had you your time
:09:44. > :09:48.over, would you move here again, knowing what you know? Knowing what
:09:49. > :09:51.I know now, no, possibly not, now I'm here, I don't have any
:09:52. > :09:55.alternative. I'm not going to lose any sleep over it. There's no point.
:09:56. > :09:59.What is the point of worrying about it? Some people here, as elsewhere,
:10:00. > :10:05.comfort themselves with the thought that this was a rare, one-off. But
:10:06. > :10:09.the problem is, our climate is changing. Professor Mike Phillips
:10:10. > :10:15.has been studying sea levels in Wales and across the world. We know
:10:16. > :10:21.the sea levels are rising. That isn't a doubt. We know the climate
:10:22. > :10:28.is warming. That's not in doubt. The only debate is the cause of it. But,
:10:29. > :10:34.we have to adapt. One of the things that we're losing. We're losing the
:10:35. > :10:38.natural resilience of the coastline to respond to storms and sea level
:10:39. > :10:42.rise. We have been losing sand dune systems. We have been losing wetland
:10:43. > :10:54.areas, not just here, worldwide. And, by building on the coastline,
:10:55. > :10:59.we've caused the problem ourselves. Aberystwyth promenade, the town's
:11:00. > :11:03.main attraction, and at this point, it's only defence against the sea.
:11:04. > :11:11.Battered and torn to pieces, homes and businesses were also hit. Local
:11:12. > :11:19.people volunteered to help with the clean-up. Structural repairs are the
:11:20. > :11:25.problem of the county's engineers. It Rhodri Llwyd's job to supervise
:11:26. > :11:28.the clearup and understand why Aberystwyth suffered so badly. Was
:11:29. > :11:32.an inspection last November, what did that find? Very minor issues.
:11:33. > :11:36.You know, missing pointing here and there. Some missing stone work.
:11:37. > :11:40.Those were rectified in December. So, you know, it was a bit of a
:11:41. > :11:45.surprise when the scale of damage that we found in January then. You
:11:46. > :11:49.weren't looking at it as a sea wall, infect? As things stand at the
:11:50. > :11:55.moment it is the promenade. It was built in the 1920s and 1930s, as
:11:56. > :11:58.such it was built as a promenade. It provides some coastal defence
:11:59. > :12:05.function, it wasn't really built for that purpose. Even before the
:12:06. > :12:08.January events, we were looking at a scheme of coastal defence works for
:12:09. > :12:12.Aberystwyth. That's something we will be taking on into the future
:12:13. > :12:17.now. The race was on to repair the damage from January's storm. In
:12:18. > :12:22.time, for the February spring tides. They made it just in time. On
:12:23. > :12:23.February 1st, it all happened again, another storm brought waves crashing
:12:24. > :12:43.over the promenade. Many of the buildings on the
:12:44. > :12:47.promenade have been evacuated and students have been sent home. Until
:12:48. > :12:51.sea defences are put in place many people in Aberystwyth are bound to
:12:52. > :13:00.wonder how many more times they will have to go through this in future.
:13:01. > :13:12.Just a short distance to the north is Borth. And the January storm hit
:13:13. > :13:23.hard here too. We had various waves that were coming through the top and
:13:24. > :13:27.we had a series of waves coming from this crime and the water was meeting
:13:28. > :13:36.in the middle and getting higher by the minute. On the Monday morning at
:13:37. > :13:42.high tide we had one that actually hit the window sills across the back
:13:43. > :13:46.of the restaurant and that was the one way I really did hold my breath
:13:47. > :13:53.for a few seconds. I thought we were going to get severely flooded.
:13:54. > :13:57.You've got tables and benches. Luckily, I type them all together on
:13:58. > :14:02.the Thursday night. Some people thought I was crazy and that the let
:14:03. > :14:08.-- water would not get that high but it was a good job I did. Borth
:14:09. > :14:11.survived the storm because a new sea defence has just been built. Large
:14:12. > :14:23.boulders hold an artificial shingle beach in place which broke the power
:14:24. > :14:34.of the waves. Your house literally backs onto the beach. You can see
:14:35. > :14:37.all the rock. This has been imported to give you some sort of defence but
:14:38. > :14:45.what happened on the night of the storm? The storm pushed the shingle
:14:46. > :14:52.on the beach protecting the village up against the houses. The effect of
:14:53. > :14:59.that was quite staggering. The sea was powerful but on the other hand
:15:00. > :15:04.if we had not had this bank it might have been a lot worse. The top of
:15:05. > :15:07.the old defence is barely visible. Many people here believe it wouldn't
:15:08. > :15:14.have protected them. The new shingle defences were built just in time.
:15:15. > :15:19.The look of it is not that good and I sympathise with that view but on
:15:20. > :15:26.the other hand, it is a cost and benefit thing. If it does not look
:15:27. > :15:34.as nice and what was your before but it protects us better, I can live
:15:35. > :15:38.with that. Defences like this might be a solution for other communities
:15:39. > :15:41.in Wales. Japp Flikweert is an engineer with an international
:15:42. > :15:45.reputation, who's travelled the world dealing with the aftermath of
:15:46. > :15:48.disasters. He advised the US Army Corps how to build safer defences
:15:49. > :15:52.for New Orleans after Hurricane Katrina. Now his firm is heading a
:15:53. > :16:02.plan to rebuild beaches across North Wales. Where we are now, there is a
:16:03. > :16:09.benefit at looking at softer defences. Here, they have built up
:16:10. > :16:20.the beach to have both the flood defence benefit and the regeneration
:16:21. > :16:23.benefit. Having the beach in front of this really has an effect on the
:16:24. > :16:28.waves coming in and reduces the damage a storm would cause. But all
:16:29. > :16:32.defences come at the price. The Borth shingle beaches cost ?13.5
:16:33. > :16:36.million to build and an 18 month to construct. It's meant to move, but
:16:37. > :16:45.one big storm moved it all in one night. We were not expecting to be
:16:46. > :16:52.18 months after completing the scheme or that so much shingle would
:16:53. > :16:57.have moved in that time. That is on top of general maintenance. We were
:16:58. > :17:01.expecting to have a machine here for a couple of days but given the
:17:02. > :17:05.events in early January, we are here for a lot longer. Welsh Councils
:17:06. > :17:08.estimate it will cost them ?10.5 million just to clean up and repair
:17:09. > :17:11.their sea defences after the recent storms. So far they have been
:17:12. > :17:14.offered ?3.6 million by the Welsh Government. But the cost of
:17:15. > :17:19.defending our coasts in the long term is an even bigger challenge.
:17:20. > :17:24.For Wales in particular, there have been calculations done a few years
:17:25. > :17:28.ago which suggest that if you would invest three times as much as you do
:17:29. > :17:36.now, that is what would be needed to sustain the same level of risks. If
:17:37. > :17:44.you don't increase your investment, the risk would increase. If you
:17:45. > :17:51.increase your investment for times, you would get reduction of risk that
:17:52. > :17:57.the benefits of that would outstrip the costs. So if we want to stand
:17:58. > :18:02.still and maintain the defences we've got, we would have to spend
:18:03. > :18:08.three times more than we are doing? Yes, that's right. And if we don't
:18:09. > :18:16.match that figure, what is the consequence? More households at
:18:17. > :18:19.risk. More people at risk. The Welsh Government say flood defence is a
:18:20. > :18:27.priority, but can they afford to defend all communities in the
:18:28. > :18:32.future? The Minister the natural resources is Alun Davies. We are
:18:33. > :18:38.spending ?240 million across the whole of Wales. If you look at what
:18:39. > :18:42.we need we could spend that twice or three times over protecting homes
:18:43. > :18:47.and properties and businesses and communities across Wales. Do you
:18:48. > :18:54.have a global figure about what the cost is? The demand is going to grow
:18:55. > :18:59.in the future. The sort of investments we are making need to be
:19:00. > :19:05.far more resilient and robust than perhaps we would have assumed a
:19:06. > :19:10.decade ago. Financing sea defences is a problem is net? We already have
:19:11. > :19:15.a risk register and we have an investment plan which I will be
:19:16. > :19:19.revising later this year. The problem is the economics don't add
:19:20. > :19:23.up. Currently, the formula used to decide what should be spent in Wales
:19:24. > :19:28.is based on ?1 million worth of defence to protect ?6 million worth
:19:29. > :19:31.of property. And that means that in future, in financial terms, not
:19:32. > :19:36.every community will be worth defending. For some, the shore
:19:37. > :19:42.management plans for the whole of Wales make tough reading. Including
:19:43. > :19:49.here in Borth. We live in a vulnerable community and the future
:19:50. > :19:57.is uncertain. At least we are safeguarded for the time being
:19:58. > :20:01.however long that is, but a little further north where the golf courses
:20:02. > :20:06.and the dune system at, that is now a little more suspect and I'm not
:20:07. > :20:12.sure what will happen there in the near future. In the short term we
:20:13. > :20:17.are holding the lines and localise repairs but in the longer term, it
:20:18. > :20:23.would be about realignment and will have to have discussions to discuss
:20:24. > :20:29.the most sustainable way of defending this coastline. We don't
:20:30. > :20:38.foresee any major capital investment. It's not just golf
:20:39. > :20:46.courses that are at risk of losing their defences. It's communities
:20:47. > :20:50.too. Communities like Fairbourne. The Seawall here at Fairbourne is
:20:51. > :20:55.the front line of the argument. And from here it's clear to see how
:20:56. > :20:58.vulnerable this community is. But already, the authorities are being
:20:59. > :21:07.advised they cannot defend this community at all cost, because that
:21:08. > :21:16.cost is too high. In future, it will have to be abandoned. The Shoreline
:21:17. > :21:19.plan says after 2025 there will be no new or improved defences, and by
:21:20. > :21:25.2055 everyone will be expected to have gone. Deadlines may slip, but
:21:26. > :21:33.their initial assessment is it's a matter of when, not if, a critical
:21:34. > :21:36.threshold is reached. The enormity of what's being suggested hasn't
:21:37. > :21:42.been lost on the manager of the town's main attraction. I would hope
:21:43. > :21:47.that it would be a gradual process and that they will talk to the local
:21:48. > :21:52.residents and businesses in plenty of time before any kind of process
:21:53. > :21:56.takes place. Any kind of policy that declares there is a cut off point is
:21:57. > :22:05.inevitably going to make house values in the area drop. Could you
:22:06. > :22:09.get a mortgage? It is a difficult judgement call somebody is going to
:22:10. > :22:14.have to make because somebody is going to make themselves very
:22:15. > :22:20.unpopular by saying no more. Ten years will probably see me out. It
:22:21. > :22:27.is not good for Fairbourne as a thriving community because it.
:22:28. > :22:34.People buying in nearly. For the people who are already here, they
:22:35. > :22:37.will probably lasted out. -- last it out. One public meeting has been
:22:38. > :22:40.held in Fairbourne but few attended. Local councillors want people to be
:22:41. > :22:45.aware but may need convincing themselves. There are different
:22:46. > :22:49.opinions. Some people say we have survived the biggest storm surge in
:22:50. > :22:56.living memory and nothing happened. Nobody died, nobody is hurt and
:22:57. > :23:01.there are other people in the village who think, oh no, what is
:23:02. > :23:06.going to happen? We have to face facts. Sooner or later, whether it
:23:07. > :23:13.is 100 years from now or 50 years from now, something might have to
:23:14. > :23:23.happen and you might have to be prepared for that. Eventually the
:23:24. > :23:28.sea will reclaim this land. But it all depends on how the sea rises. I
:23:29. > :23:35.am not giving up the fight because it is all hypothetical. In the past
:23:36. > :23:43.hundred years of the sea has risen 100 millimetres. If that is the
:23:44. > :23:50.case, we will be here for the next 300 years. The shoreline management
:23:51. > :23:54.plan for this area has indicated that 360 millilitres which is a
:23:55. > :24:00.reasonable figure from research I have carried out personally, it
:24:01. > :24:07.means the cost of defending this place would be too high. After ten
:24:08. > :24:12.years the policy will switch to withdrawal. That will be a major
:24:13. > :24:16.problem for the people in the village. People have worked all
:24:17. > :24:23.their lives to buy a property and I don't know what their reaction to be
:24:24. > :24:27.if they had to walk away from it. We would protect our railway lines and
:24:28. > :24:35.other road systems and our high-value economic infrastructure.
:24:36. > :24:39.But communities like this? It is a difficult political decision because
:24:40. > :24:42.the properties that are built here then become blighted. Gwynedd
:24:43. > :24:53.Council adopted the Shoreline Management plan last year. The
:24:54. > :24:58.important thing is that we have an honest discussion and we tell people
:24:59. > :25:03.the facts and we face them and say this is the plan we have to deal
:25:04. > :25:10.with that. What is the plan? The plan is to try and sustain the
:25:11. > :25:14.position in the short-term but in that managed retreat and will have
:25:15. > :25:18.to look at the future of that community. I recognise people are
:25:19. > :25:21.going to be in a difficult position but we cannot leave them on their
:25:22. > :25:26.own and we have to support them in the future. That will mean looking
:25:27. > :25:33.at what the financial cases and looking at matters in terms of their
:25:34. > :25:38.homes and businesses. Are we talking about compensation of some sort? I
:25:39. > :25:43.am not going to come up with that sort of scheme here because it is a
:25:44. > :25:51.matter of detailed discussion with the Welsh Government but we will
:25:52. > :25:54.need to do that. There are 50 communities listed in the Shoreline
:25:55. > :25:57.Management plans for Wales which have been earmarked for some form of
:25:58. > :26:00.managed retreat. In Newgale, Pembrokeshire, that's already begun.
:26:01. > :26:03.Others like Fairbourne are due to begin in ten years, and 40 years
:26:04. > :26:13.from now, Borth and others are scheduled to follow suit. At the
:26:14. > :26:18.moment, managed retreat is not part of our policy. We want to manage
:26:19. > :26:24.shore defences in different ways. That is a big point. Manage retreat
:26:25. > :26:39.is not part of our long-term strategy. Is that the case? Yes. You
:26:40. > :26:42.can't do everything everywhere. What happens to those communities that
:26:43. > :26:58.will be blighted the moment it comes out they cannot be protected in the
:26:59. > :27:08.future? I am not buying the assumption you are making. It is a
:27:09. > :27:13.matter for local authorities. It means I am not buying your
:27:14. > :27:16.assumption on that issue. The Welsh Government has the final say on
:27:17. > :27:20.approval for Shoreline Management plans, but it's the councils and NRW
:27:21. > :27:26.that work on the detail. We understand they do not anticipate
:27:27. > :27:29.major changes. Winter storms are still battering our coastal
:27:30. > :27:33.communities. In many ways this could have been worse. But we're not out
:27:34. > :27:39.of the woods yet. Time perhaps for lessons to be learned. It is a good
:27:40. > :27:46.thing we are doing this now because that should give us the time to
:27:47. > :27:50.adapt society to this increasing risk. If you see it coming, use the
:27:51. > :27:58.time of a generation to make the change. They are communities which
:27:59. > :28:08.don't have much of a future. It is looking like it. This is a matter
:28:09. > :28:13.for the Minister and the Welsh Government cause it is not unique to
:28:14. > :28:16.this part of Wales. We have to come up with a vision of how we see the
:28:17. > :28:19.coastline communities in Wales for the future. The minister says he
:28:20. > :28:28.will announce his new plans later this year. But many on the front
:28:29. > :28:32.line say time is running out. Humanity cannot always go on doing
:28:33. > :28:39.what it thinks it can to hold any line anywhere. I think here they
:28:40. > :28:43.have provided an answer. How long it will last, I am not entirely sure.
:28:44. > :28:56.But hopefully it will last long enough. If they started saying you
:28:57. > :28:59.have to evacuate, you are not going to get any value on the house and
:29:00. > :29:03.you are not going to get compensation. You have to stick it
:29:04. > :29:11.out. Should we as a society defend coastal communities like this
:29:12. > :29:17.regardless of cost? That is a difficult one. Obviously, one would
:29:18. > :29:22.like to think they will but in the real world, I don't think they will.