:00:00. > :00:36.They have got to use the bottom of the house as the stairs.
:00:37. > :00:41.Yes, it's been another winter of storms.
:00:42. > :00:49.But are the official excuses wearing a bit thin?
:00:50. > :00:55.This is the 13th flood we have had in two and a half months.
:00:56. > :00:57.Now new evidence suggests we may need to go back
:00:58. > :01:00.We are grossly underestimating the flooding.
:01:01. > :01:04.More lives, more properties and more livelihoods are at risk.
:01:05. > :01:06.There are huge challenges ahead, so why don't those in charge
:01:07. > :01:31.Flooding has brought misery to thousands across Britain
:01:32. > :01:32.with properties devastated, lives disrupted and a clean-up
:01:33. > :01:42.For some of us, it is a familiar story...
:01:43. > :01:45.They say as a journalist, the first thing you need is a good
:01:46. > :01:48.pair of shoes, but sometimes I've felt as if what I needed was a good
:01:49. > :02:04.They've carried me from one flood disaster to the next for 30 years.
:02:05. > :02:19.With the sea defences breached behind my .Mac
:02:20. > :02:22.It's a bit like Groundhog Day, with the nagging feeling you're not
:02:23. > :02:31.The big picture raises big questions.
:02:32. > :02:38.In 2005, a devastating flood took me to Carlisle.
:02:39. > :02:44.the pressure is growing to ensure that communities across the country
:02:45. > :02:50.do not have to face this kind of problem again.
:02:51. > :02:54.It's been 10 years and I can't quite believe it but I'm back in Carlisle.
:02:55. > :02:55.People were being told it wouldn't happen again.
:02:56. > :03:02.House after house is empty, house after house is being
:03:03. > :03:15.Again, after David Heath -- again, after devastating floods.
:03:16. > :03:23.Both her home and her bakery business were flooded out.
:03:24. > :03:26.The floodwater came up to here, you can see where it got to
:03:27. > :03:34.When I came here in 2005, I seem to remember people being told
:03:35. > :03:37.subsequently, "We won't allow this to happen again."
:03:38. > :03:44.We were told it was a once-in-a-lifetime event.
:03:45. > :03:46.Unprecedented. Yet, here we are again.
:03:47. > :03:55.Did flood defences do their job here then?
:03:56. > :03:59.I don't think the flood defences could have done any more.
:04:00. > :04:03.They were built to a certain height that the experts said they had to be
:04:04. > :04:09.ten years ago, and the water still came over.
:04:10. > :04:12.I don't think Carlisle could cope with it happening a third time,
:04:13. > :04:24.Flood defences like these costing ?38 million were meant
:04:25. > :04:31.They were supposed to have been built high enough to take climate
:04:32. > :04:35.But these blue ribbons show the flood water level was a half
:04:36. > :04:49.It feels like something is being missed.
:04:50. > :04:51.The answer could be hidden away in these hills
:04:52. > :04:54.A team of experts, headed by world-renowned geologist
:04:55. > :04:57.have been gathering information for decades.
:04:58. > :05:00.He took me to one location that could unlock the puzzle of why
:05:01. > :05:03.we are seeing such large floods events.
:05:04. > :05:10.We're standing on the south bank tributary of the Cambrian Mountains.
:05:11. > :05:13.This is the Nant Cwmdu and it's got a wonderful record
:05:14. > :05:19.These table-size boulders have been moved over the last 100 years
:05:20. > :05:32.Well, Mark, how do you read this landscape?
:05:33. > :05:34.These are significant, Tim, as they're a record
:05:35. > :05:43.That tells us they were moved here by a very
:05:44. > :05:46.large flood and as they move down, they tumble over
:05:47. > :05:55.That shape tells us it's been moved by water and that shape
:05:56. > :05:58.is essential because it tells us we are measuring a flood deposit
:05:59. > :06:08.The size of the boulders reveals the scale of the flood.
:06:09. > :06:10.And the scientists can work out when it happened thanks
:06:11. > :06:22.The growth rate of lichen on these boulders shows they were deposited
:06:23. > :06:28.In terms of flow depth, it would have just been
:06:29. > :06:44.I would have been swept down, so, yes, a very big flow of water,
:06:45. > :06:46.which we estimate to be at about 4 metres a second.
:06:47. > :06:51.What happens in the hills plays out further down in our river valleys.
:06:52. > :06:56.And this year, there were floods again in Wales.
:06:57. > :06:59.Well, the skies are clear, but it's been raining all night
:07:00. > :07:03.and look what it's done to this river.
:07:04. > :07:06.Conwy Valley's rising flood water has become a fact of life
:07:07. > :07:08.and for the people of Llanrwst, that makes them feel
:07:09. > :07:22.On Boxing Day, Llanrwst was hit by floods - again.
:07:23. > :07:25.Defences which were meant to protect part of the town didn't hold back
:07:26. > :07:49.Are you dry? Hello, I am Tim, nice to meet you.
:07:50. > :07:53.A very nicely decorated living room, put a lot of care and attention in
:07:54. > :07:55.and here we are with the furniture all piled up again.
:07:56. > :07:58.The council said this would never happen again in Conwy Terrace,
:07:59. > :08:01.It's your home and it's been flooded four times now.
:08:02. > :08:04.I checked the back drain, that is often a sign.
:08:05. > :08:06.Then I flushed the toilet and the water was staying up
:08:07. > :08:19.I said to Debbie, we'd better get the family down and start moving
:08:20. > :08:32.People on the street and were looking and coming down to help
:08:33. > :08:33.others. After flooding ten years ago,
:08:34. > :08:39.a new Dutch dam system was installed But on Boxing Day, flooding brought
:08:40. > :08:46.confusion and the barrier which might have helped
:08:47. > :08:50.wasn't put up in time. They were actually trying to get
:08:51. > :08:56.the plates off the road. With six inches of water on them,
:08:57. > :09:04.it was too late. Then water was coming
:09:05. > :09:07.into the houses next door. When that barrier was
:09:08. > :09:09.constructed, did you think, "We won't have to go
:09:10. > :09:13.through this again?" The only thing we can do now is move
:09:14. > :09:19.upstairs. We have to use the bottom of the
:09:20. > :09:28.house as a seller. Natural Resources Wales
:09:29. > :09:31.plans, builds and repairs Five years ago, it spent ?7 million
:09:32. > :09:34.to protect Llanrwst. It says it only spends money on such
:09:35. > :09:37.schemes after carrying out Despite this, locals
:09:38. > :09:40.are still left frustrated. I think the people particularly
:09:41. > :09:42.are angry that there was a preventative measure
:09:43. > :09:48.in place that wasn't used. When the scheme was first initiated,
:09:49. > :09:55.the idea was to take the wall down and waterproof it and rebuild it,
:09:56. > :10:01.and to raise higher the section, but when it was implemented,
:10:02. > :10:04.money could not be found for that, Presumably, an assessment was made
:10:05. > :10:18.that they could not afford to do it. We can't afford it and
:10:19. > :10:20.perhaps we don't need to. Oh, yes, the gentleman
:10:21. > :10:22.in Conway Terrace you've spoken And it will go on flooding
:10:23. > :10:28.unless something quite drastic is done to increase the height
:10:29. > :10:36.of that wall and improve that wall. Even though hundreds of millions
:10:37. > :10:40.have been spent on flood defences across the country, every year
:10:41. > :10:43.in recent years they fail somewhere. When that happens, one word
:10:44. > :10:57.is trotted out again and again... We are talking about the nature with
:10:58. > :11:02.the unprecedented rainfall. This is unprecedented.
:11:03. > :11:10.On Saturday night we saw an unprecedented amount of rainfall.
:11:11. > :11:16.I want to scream because it's not true.
:11:17. > :11:19.There were much bigger floods in the past and they need
:11:20. > :11:33.These are real floods that have happened in the past, not models.
:11:34. > :11:39.Across Wales, river levels are monitored by gauges like these.
:11:40. > :11:41.It's information used by Natural Resources Wales
:11:42. > :11:51.The NRW's flood map has a lot of information about the type
:11:52. > :11:55.of flood risk for those who live and work in vulnerable areas.
:11:56. > :11:59.But there is a fundamental problem because that information is almost
:12:00. > :12:01.all based on data gathered by river gauges, or instrumental records
:12:02. > :12:12.So it's a bit like reading a really good history book
:12:13. > :12:14.that ignores anything that happened before 1960.
:12:15. > :12:18.And according to the geologists at Aberystwyth University,
:12:19. > :12:21.it means that huge floods they have discovered on our rivers have not
:12:22. > :12:23.been included in the NRW's flood risk model.
:12:24. > :12:29.So crucially, they say the risk is being underestimated.
:12:30. > :12:42.We had, in the late 18th century, 20% to 30% larger floods
:12:43. > :12:44.than what we're seeing in the instrumental records.
:12:45. > :12:46.If you go further back to long-term sedimentary records,
:12:47. > :12:49.you're looking at floods 20% larger than that as well.
:12:50. > :12:52.So we're actually at flood magnitudes that may be approaching,
:12:53. > :12:57.in some areas, the Upper Severn to parts of Mid Wales,
:12:58. > :13:01.where flood magnitudes could be anywhere between 20%,
:13:02. > :13:03.and let's say, 40% higher than what we've seen
:13:04. > :13:13.We will need to re-think and re-map our flood plains to look
:13:14. > :13:20.Then we're going to put more properties and lives
:13:21. > :13:29.Natural Resources Wales says it doesn't accept
:13:30. > :13:32.that it is underestimating flood risk in Wales.
:13:33. > :13:36.It says it does use historic river gauge data where it exists,
:13:37. > :13:42.and it continues to update its flood maps as techniques improve.
:13:43. > :13:46.Wales might not have been affected as much as other parts of the UK
:13:47. > :13:48.this year, but those who've been flooded feel flooding
:13:49. > :13:52.In the Vale of Glamorgan, the owners of this pub feel
:13:53. > :13:55.they are running out of answers, as they are counting the cost
:13:56. > :14:04.of their fourth flood in seven years.
:14:05. > :14:12.We were closed for two weeks in December.
:14:13. > :14:27.Here, it's the River Ely that's the culprit.
:14:28. > :14:31.The NRW have been out and had a look but it's not cost effective to do
:14:32. > :14:34.any work, as I'm the only person affected.
:14:35. > :14:40.My hands are tied and before long, I won't be able to pay
:14:41. > :14:58.In Llanrwst, another business is suffering.
:14:59. > :15:00.Here one of the great old houses of Wales,
:15:01. > :15:02.which has undergone 20 years of restoration,
:15:03. > :15:10.could be destroyed if the floods persist.
:15:11. > :15:14.Judy and Peter are the owners the historic Tudor Gwydir Castle
:15:15. > :15:18.which they have opened to the public.
:15:19. > :15:20.This is the 13th flood we've had in two months,
:15:21. > :15:41.Are those people who are in a position to do something about it
:15:42. > :15:43.listening? We get political answers to our questions, it is very
:15:44. > :15:45.frustrating. Nothing is happening, we are talking, they just keep
:15:46. > :15:50.telling us they're going to review the situation but it doesn't help
:15:51. > :15:56.us. The Boxing Day Flood was just a foot of the top of the war, so the
:15:57. > :16:01.sellers were 7 feet underwater, so we were just about to evacuate the
:16:02. > :16:06.famous 17th-century dining room, brought back with public money from
:16:07. > :16:12.the New York Metropolitan Museum, 1 of the most famous rooms of its date
:16:13. > :16:17.from Wales and we were about to evacuate. We only weren't flooded
:16:18. > :16:26.because the embankment, the flood defence to the north of this point
:16:27. > :16:27.here, failed. Had that not failed, we would have been completely
:16:28. > :16:34.inundated. The NRW says there are no current
:16:35. > :16:38.plans to update the flood defences But if the flood risk plans
:16:39. > :16:41.are underestimating the real flood risk, then communities like Llanrwst
:16:42. > :16:44.could be living on borrowed time. It's not just geologists
:16:45. > :16:46.in Aberystwyth who are finding evidence that we're
:16:47. > :16:49.underestimating the risk. Just down the road from the college
:16:50. > :16:54.is the National Library of Wales. Within its walls are local papers
:16:55. > :17:09.going back to the 19 century - So while government ministers and
:17:10. > :17:14.heads of the environment agency have been talking about unprecedented
:17:15. > :17:23.floods, the Aberystwyth Observer was using the same expression in 1879.
:17:24. > :17:31.It says here, a storm of unprecedented severity... August 9
:17:32. > :17:40.netted 57, we are told a thunderstorm which swooped on Monday
:17:41. > :17:43.afternoon (Trail of havoc. But anyone who cares to look my history
:17:44. > :17:50.and report of today are readily available, showing major flooding
:17:51. > :17:53.between 1840 and 1957. Surprisingly, it is evident which is used by
:17:54. > :17:57.Natural Resources Wales when it decides how best to protect
:17:58. > :18:06.communities from flooding in the future. The report of destruction
:18:07. > :18:16.much the date of geological Flood data being gathered by Professor
:18:17. > :18:23.Macklin and his team. We need to aggregate the evidence in new ways,
:18:24. > :18:28.and I think it that is vitally important in protecting UK society
:18:29. > :18:35.as we move through the 21st century. The vocation of what is being
:18:36. > :18:42.claimed his huge -- the implication. It's not just the real level of risk
:18:43. > :18:45.faced by those already living on floodplains but it affects every
:18:46. > :18:51.decision we make on where we can safely build in future. Well today
:18:52. > :18:57.this valley looks benign enough, when it does Flood, the water comes
:18:58. > :19:01.here onto the floodplain which for centuries was left for that purpose.
:19:02. > :19:03.Today, the developers are moving in here and across the country, in the
:19:04. > :19:09.belief that man can defeat nature. in the belief that man
:19:10. > :19:15.can defeat nature. Four years ago, this flood plain
:19:16. > :19:19.lived up to its name and many newly Yet building continues
:19:20. > :19:28.in flood risk areas. In Colwinston in the
:19:29. > :19:31.Vale of Glamorgan, villagers were surprised how little
:19:32. > :19:33.official fuss was made about a new housing
:19:34. > :19:40.development there. This field is wet and it's known
:19:41. > :19:43.as pond field in old mats. The report said the said the NRW had
:19:44. > :19:49.not commented adversely Yes it does as I think a part
:19:50. > :20:00.of this field is down here does appear in the NRW flood
:20:01. > :20:02.map as a flooding risk. And if you look at the photographs
:20:03. > :20:10.that we provided to the council in responding to the planning
:20:11. > :20:12.application, that dip The community council decided
:20:13. > :20:19.to hire their own expert. A lecturer at UCL,Dr Harvey Rodda
:20:20. > :20:24.is also an independent hydrologist. Often called in to look
:20:25. > :20:28.at developers' plans, he's increasingly worried
:20:29. > :20:30.by the standard of checking carried The main frustration is I literally
:20:31. > :20:43.feel I am doing the job the EA or NRW should be doing in properly
:20:44. > :20:48.assessing these reports. Following Dr Rodda's report,
:20:49. > :20:50.the developer submitted a revised flood risk assessment and planning
:20:51. > :20:53.permission was granted last year. The council says this was done
:20:54. > :20:58.after consulting NRW. But the NRW say they no longer
:20:59. > :21:01.object to flood risk schemes But Dr Rodda says they should be
:21:02. > :21:05.involved in every case where there is any
:21:06. > :21:13.suggestion of flood risk. So based on my experience,
:21:14. > :21:20.I'm sure there are schemes that have been built where flooding hasn't
:21:21. > :21:22.properly been assessed There are going to be number
:21:23. > :21:27.of examples that already fallen through the net
:21:28. > :21:40.so to speak. We will provide our expert flood
:21:41. > :21:47.risk advice to the local authority and if necessary we will object. Any
:21:48. > :21:52.development on a floodplain is a seriously bad idea, isn't it? That
:21:53. > :21:56.is taking an extreme view. You need to look at the exact type of risk
:21:57. > :21:57.and you need to be able to see whether or not you can actually
:21:58. > :22:00.manage that. Natural Resources Wales says it
:22:01. > :22:03.continues to object to developments But homes are still being
:22:04. > :22:28.built on flood plains. Much of the development we see the
:22:29. > :22:35.place in the 80s and 90s in this period, as a consequence, we are
:22:36. > :22:40.turning to more frequent and larger flood events, that existing
:22:41. > :22:44.government is under threat and it in my view would be madness in terms of
:22:45. > :22:46.continued the government in areas which we now have a significant
:22:47. > :22:50.flood risk. This winter flooding has
:22:51. > :22:52.brought misery to homes, hit businesses, and disrupted
:22:53. > :22:57.our transport system. Even Natural Resources Wales'
:22:58. > :23:00.own river gauges show flood levels And that backs up the
:23:01. > :23:05.geologists' research. Natural Resources Wales said it's
:23:06. > :23:09.interested in Prof Macklin's data but believes there are uncertainties
:23:10. > :23:14.around techniques and estimates. They are not yet using it to assess
:23:15. > :23:18.flood risk in Wales. But some countries have been
:23:19. > :23:21.using the methodology It's an official report written
:23:22. > :23:27.in US about dam safety In it they are using geological
:23:28. > :23:34.flood methodology to work One of the authors is a Government
:23:35. > :23:40.official, the equivalent The report finds the data reliable,
:23:41. > :23:47.not that expensive to gather, and should be used as a matter
:23:48. > :23:52.of course to help "reduce the uncertainty in estimates
:23:53. > :24:00.of maximum flood potential." Many European countries, like Spain,
:24:01. > :24:02.also use this information And on the other side of the world,
:24:03. > :24:08.in New Zealand, Prof Macklin is currently busy gathering data
:24:09. > :24:11.that will be used to assess the real flood risk for thousands of people
:24:12. > :24:20.in the town of Lower Hutt. What frustrates me is over the last
:24:21. > :24:24.30 years, particularly 10 years - research groups I've been
:24:25. > :24:30.involved with in Newcastle, Leeds and Aber and also
:24:31. > :24:35.in New Zealand we have built up a very large database
:24:36. > :24:40.about of pre instrumental floods, both documentary
:24:41. > :24:43.and sedimentary . We can give precise and accurate
:24:44. > :24:45.estimates of flood magnitude that extend and pre date
:24:46. > :24:50.the instrumental records. If we just use the instrumental
:24:51. > :24:52.record, we are grossly Larger and more frequent floods
:24:53. > :25:03.that we haven't planned for will test defences,
:25:04. > :25:07.not only in Llanrwst and Aberyswyth, but every community
:25:08. > :25:11.in Wales - including the cities of Swansea,
:25:12. > :25:14.Newport and here in Cardiff. That has to be of major interest
:25:15. > :25:17.for those at the Welsh Government who have to finance future flood
:25:18. > :25:19.defences and decide where We wanted to speak to the Minister
:25:20. > :25:27.for Natural Resources, Carl Sargeant,
:25:28. > :25:31.but he declined our invitation. Instead, we had a statement
:25:32. > :25:39.in response to our many questions. They pointed out that December
:25:40. > :25:42.had been unprecedented. They said everybody knew the risk
:25:43. > :25:48.that they faced from flooding - They also say they're confident that
:25:49. > :25:54.correct data is being used to assess While the Government won't talk
:25:55. > :26:00.to us, it says it is trying But its critics say
:26:01. > :26:06.it has to do more. The implications are huge,
:26:07. > :26:10.the implications are absolutely huge.
:26:11. > :26:13.Financially and structurally and emotionally and psychologically
:26:14. > :26:17.for some of these people living There are practical questions
:26:18. > :26:21.about insurance levels for homes, mitigating measures that they,
:26:22. > :26:23.as individuals, should put in around their properties,
:26:24. > :26:26.for local government and ultimately It's a huge piece of work that
:26:27. > :26:31.would need to be undertaken, I think, to re-assess all the
:26:32. > :26:34.catchment areas in Wales, but really, if other countries
:26:35. > :26:36.are looking at this evidence and we are not, we should be
:26:37. > :26:44.asking - why not? So what about Natural
:26:45. > :26:45.Resources Wales? It's curious that the body
:26:46. > :26:48.responsible for protecting us from rising floods, refused to talk
:26:49. > :27:12.to us about flooding. Natural Resources Wales, this is the
:27:13. > :27:19.BBC. Many more people might need a boat in future!
:27:20. > :27:26.Your flood maps have sprung a leak! Help, we're sinking! Natural
:27:27. > :27:32.Resources Wales, please come and talk to us!
:27:33. > :27:41.Come and talk to us about flooding! This is Week in, Week out. I don't
:27:42. > :27:53.think they want to talk to us. The Welsh Conservatives
:27:54. > :27:55.are tabling a question tomorrow Meanwhile, those communities already
:27:56. > :28:00.dealing with the cost of flooding can only hope that
:28:01. > :28:12.warnings will be heard. What would your message be to the
:28:13. > :28:19.authorities? What would you take to the people responsible for defending
:28:20. > :28:28.this community? I wouldn't be able to say it on camera! I really feel
:28:29. > :28:32.strongly. It's very, very bad for the morale of the community. Living
:28:33. > :28:38.with this kind of constant threat is very exhausting. We need to bring
:28:39. > :28:43.even more pressure to bear to make them take proper account of the
:28:44. > :28:49.flood risk here. And if they don't? We will flood again and again and
:28:50. > :28:51.again. This is the 13th flood we have put in 2 1/2 months for sub I
:28:52. > :28:54.call that precedent it. Not unprecedented perhaps,
:28:55. > :28:55.but recent floods are So, is this, my Groundhog Flooding
:28:56. > :29:07.Day, coming to an end? A few minutes ago this water was a
:29:08. > :29:12.few inches deep and It's been said after these winter
:29:13. > :29:15.storms it's time to re-think how We can only hope for
:29:16. > :29:25.those on the front line, that the decision-makers
:29:26. > :29:27.are listening, but for now, I might
:29:28. > :29:31.just hang on to these.