0:00:11 > 0:00:15Scotland is close to a momentous decision about its future.
0:00:17 > 0:00:20The stakes could not be higher.
0:00:20 > 0:00:23Our country. Our Scotland.
0:00:23 > 0:00:26Our independence.
0:00:26 > 0:00:28CHEERING AND APPLAUSE
0:00:28 > 0:00:33It would break my heart to see our United Kingdom break apart.
0:00:33 > 0:00:36Scotland will vote to stay or quit the United Kingdom
0:00:36 > 0:00:38on September 18th.
0:00:38 > 0:00:41The campaign north of the border has been raging for months.
0:00:41 > 0:00:44What is plan B?
0:00:44 > 0:00:46What was logical and desirable last year
0:00:46 > 0:00:49isn't logical and desirable this year.
0:00:49 > 0:00:54But in much of the rest of the UK the silence has been deafening.
0:00:54 > 0:00:56If the Scots vote to quit the Union,
0:00:56 > 0:01:01what would it mean for the 55 million plus in the rest of the UK?
0:01:05 > 0:01:08Scottish independence could have far-reaching consequences
0:01:08 > 0:01:13for Britain's nuclear deterrent, its armed forces and its economy.
0:01:13 > 0:01:16It's a question of immense magnitude for the whole UK,
0:01:16 > 0:01:18and its place in the world,
0:01:18 > 0:01:21and the way it sees itself, the way it imagines itself.
0:01:21 > 0:01:26It's a question the Westminster elite has tried not to confront.
0:01:26 > 0:01:31The consequences are so huge it's very hard to get their minds
0:01:31 > 0:01:34around how big an issue this will be,
0:01:34 > 0:01:36and partly because they are terrified.
0:01:37 > 0:01:40The 300-year union between Scotland and England
0:01:40 > 0:01:43has always divided opinion.
0:01:43 > 0:01:46For some, it's been this great act of statesmanship.
0:01:46 > 0:01:47For other people, it's been
0:01:47 > 0:01:50a sordid sell-out of a country's nation.
0:01:53 > 0:01:56What would happen to Wales and Northern Ireland?
0:01:56 > 0:01:58Would it change England, too?
0:02:00 > 0:02:03One of the consequences of losing Scotland is England will become
0:02:03 > 0:02:05a more interesting place.
0:02:09 > 0:02:13Everybody agrees that independence has profound implications
0:02:13 > 0:02:14for Scotland.
0:02:14 > 0:02:18But it's a game-changer for the rest of the United Kingdom too.
0:02:29 > 0:02:31Further right.
0:02:31 > 0:02:33Out here.
0:02:35 > 0:02:37Operation Joint Warrior -
0:02:37 > 0:02:40one of the biggest military exercises in Europe involving
0:02:40 > 0:02:45British forces from all three armed services and our NATO allies.
0:02:45 > 0:02:49GUNFIRE
0:02:51 > 0:02:54It's a massive 18-day operation
0:02:54 > 0:02:57and the waters and wilds of Scotland...
0:02:57 > 0:02:59Literally just beyond that building.
0:02:59 > 0:03:02..are a perfect location for it.
0:03:02 > 0:03:04GO!
0:03:06 > 0:03:10The purpose is to measure our forces' ability to defend
0:03:10 > 0:03:13the United Kingdom and take on our enemies.
0:03:16 > 0:03:18Get on the ground!
0:03:19 > 0:03:21It's testing the readiness
0:03:21 > 0:03:26of the British Army's only very High Readiness force of over 2,000 troops.
0:03:26 > 0:03:30We're testing, validating, the preparedness of that force.
0:03:33 > 0:03:35Despite almost constant downsizing
0:03:35 > 0:03:39since the end of the Second World War and the withdrawal from Empire,
0:03:39 > 0:03:42Britain remains a significant military power,
0:03:42 > 0:03:48with well-trained forces armed with sophisticated and deadly armaments.
0:03:48 > 0:03:51Last known position of a D sub at 5-0-1,
0:03:51 > 0:03:5363 nautical miles to the south.
0:03:57 > 0:04:00If Scotland votes for independence, the Scottish Government would
0:04:00 > 0:04:05insist on taking with it a chunk of Britain's military might.
0:04:05 > 0:04:09For the UK's military establishment, this is not a happy prospect.
0:04:09 > 0:04:14It is inevitable that there will be a diminution of that
0:04:14 > 0:04:18defence capability given an independent Scotland.
0:04:18 > 0:04:23That landmass is no longer an integral whole
0:04:23 > 0:04:25of the mainland of Britain.
0:04:25 > 0:04:29The defence facilities which currently are in Scotland
0:04:29 > 0:04:33are, of course, on a union basis and are very important.
0:04:41 > 0:04:45The Nationalists say that an independent Scotland would be
0:04:45 > 0:04:48entitled to its fair share of Britain's military hardware.
0:04:50 > 0:04:54The Scottish Government's White Paper lays claim to
0:04:54 > 0:04:5712 RAF typhoon fighters, a helicopter squadron,
0:04:57 > 0:05:01six Hercules air transporters, two Royal Navy frigates,
0:05:01 > 0:05:04four mine hunters, various patrol boats
0:05:04 > 0:05:09and three infantry units fully equipped with UK assets.
0:05:11 > 0:05:14The SNP claim that will enable Scotland
0:05:14 > 0:05:17to set up a credible Scottish fighting force.
0:05:17 > 0:05:19GUNFIRE
0:05:19 > 0:05:20Within ten years of sovereignty,
0:05:20 > 0:05:23there will be 15,000 service personnel in Scotland.
0:05:23 > 0:05:27That's 4,000 more than the UK currently has in Scotland
0:05:27 > 0:05:30and, in equipment terms, we'll have a much broader range of capabilities
0:05:30 > 0:05:33to be able to do the things that are required
0:05:33 > 0:05:35of a northern European nation.
0:05:37 > 0:05:40But where would that leave the military capabilities
0:05:40 > 0:05:43of the rest of the United Kingdom?
0:05:43 > 0:05:48I don't disguise the fact that having to divide our military assets
0:05:48 > 0:05:52ceasing to have a whole of the United Kingdom approach to defence
0:05:52 > 0:05:58would be damaging to the residual UK as well as to Scotland.
0:05:58 > 0:06:01Do you think we could fill the gap left behind
0:06:01 > 0:06:02by an independent Scotland?
0:06:02 > 0:06:06The crucial thing to remember about the current defence of the UK
0:06:06 > 0:06:09is that there is no separate Scottish bit
0:06:09 > 0:06:13as the Nationalists sometimes try to suggest.
0:06:13 > 0:06:18It is organised on a whole UK basis and if we stop doing that,
0:06:18 > 0:06:22we would need a different mix of forces, a different construction,
0:06:22 > 0:06:24and that would take some time to work through.
0:06:27 > 0:06:30The Nationalists claim that, overall,
0:06:30 > 0:06:33the defence of the WHOLE of these islands would be enhanced.
0:06:35 > 0:06:37We live on the same island.
0:06:37 > 0:06:39It's in all of our interests that we continue to work together,
0:06:39 > 0:06:42operate together, train together, procure together.
0:06:42 > 0:06:43All of these things are possible
0:06:43 > 0:06:45and I'm confident will happen after a yes vote.
0:06:45 > 0:06:48What is good for Scotland in this regard
0:06:48 > 0:06:53in conventional, defence capability terms, is advantageous to...
0:06:53 > 0:06:57not just to Scotland, but to the rest of the UK and to our allies.
0:07:03 > 0:07:07Even so, for British defence planners it is a daunting prospect
0:07:07 > 0:07:12to contemplate what would be, in effect, a further 10% cut
0:07:12 > 0:07:16on top of the substantial cuts that have already been made.
0:07:16 > 0:07:19And that would leave the British Government with a stark choice.
0:07:22 > 0:07:25The rest of the UK would then have to decide if it was prepared
0:07:25 > 0:07:28to spend the several billion of pounds needed to make up the
0:07:28 > 0:07:33Scottish losses or accept a further reduction in British military
0:07:33 > 0:07:39capabilities and the consequent loss of power and influence.
0:07:39 > 0:07:43The bottom line is that what's left of the UK
0:07:43 > 0:07:46would be less secure
0:07:46 > 0:07:50than it is as part of the union?
0:07:50 > 0:07:55Measured in terms of the military capability, which will rest
0:07:55 > 0:08:01with a diminished United Kingdom, yes, it will be less.
0:08:04 > 0:08:07If Scottish independence is a daunting prospect
0:08:07 > 0:08:09for Britain's conventional armed forces,
0:08:09 > 0:08:14it could be terminal for the UK's independent nuclear deterrent.
0:08:20 > 0:08:23Faslane, 25 miles west of Glasgow,
0:08:23 > 0:08:27nestling on the banks of a typical placid Scottish sea loch,
0:08:27 > 0:08:32and home to the deadliest weapons system ever known to mankind -
0:08:32 > 0:08:35the British nuclear deterrent.
0:08:35 > 0:08:38This is where the four submarines at the heart of that deterrent come
0:08:38 > 0:08:40for rest and repair.
0:08:40 > 0:08:43Inside these hills on the other side of loch,
0:08:43 > 0:08:47Coulport, where they store the long range Trident missiles
0:08:47 > 0:08:50and their warheads of incredible destructive power.
0:08:53 > 0:08:55The British nuclear deterrent
0:08:55 > 0:08:58doesn't just give the country fearful weapons.
0:08:58 > 0:09:01Successive British governments, on the right and the left,
0:09:01 > 0:09:03have seen it as a major reason
0:09:03 > 0:09:05why Britain still matters in the world...
0:09:09 > 0:09:12..giving it power, status and influence.
0:09:15 > 0:09:18That's not how the Scottish Government sees it.
0:09:20 > 0:09:22It's long been a pillar of Scottish Nationalism
0:09:22 > 0:09:26that an independent Scotland would be a nuclear-free.
0:09:26 > 0:09:28So if Scotland votes yes in September, these submarines,
0:09:28 > 0:09:33their warheads, and their missiles would have to go and pronto.
0:09:33 > 0:09:36All of which presents London with perhaps its biggest
0:09:36 > 0:09:39post-independence headache.
0:09:39 > 0:09:43How to replicate Faslane and Coulport somewhere else in the UK
0:09:43 > 0:09:47by the SNP's deadline of 2020.
0:09:47 > 0:09:51Coulport and Faslane are not replicable
0:09:51 > 0:09:55without the most enormous amount of public expense and enormous
0:09:55 > 0:09:59quantity of time in the south, if indeed they're replicable at all.
0:09:59 > 0:10:01It's down effectively to Falmouth and Milford Haven, but even they
0:10:01 > 0:10:05won't work because just think of the planning permission for that narrow
0:10:05 > 0:10:09estuary in Falmouth because Coulport is the most enormous installation.
0:10:09 > 0:10:11There's enormous security around it -
0:10:11 > 0:10:13keeping nuclear warheads safe and stored well
0:10:13 > 0:10:16with all the top-of-the-range requirements you've got to have
0:10:16 > 0:10:18for that enormous amount of real estate.
0:10:18 > 0:10:22Milford Haven is now covered with oil and gas terminals -
0:10:22 > 0:10:24not the ideal place.
0:10:26 > 0:10:33For the life of me, it seems that to replicate those very high-tech
0:10:33 > 0:10:38facilities elsewhere south of the border,
0:10:38 > 0:10:42to do that in four years, seems to me virtually impossible.
0:10:42 > 0:10:48It is the unique facilities which the warhead establishment
0:10:48 > 0:10:52at Coulport gives, the storage and maintenance of the warheads,
0:10:52 > 0:10:54without which there is no deterrent.
0:10:59 > 0:11:02If the future of the UK's deterrent could be put in doubt
0:11:02 > 0:11:05by Scottish independence,
0:11:05 > 0:11:08you would expect Westminster to be thinking about alternatives.
0:11:08 > 0:11:10You would be wrong.
0:11:15 > 0:11:18Have you done any contingency planning for this?
0:11:18 > 0:11:22We are not planning for the contingency of Scottish independence
0:11:22 > 0:11:25because we think the likelihood of it occurring is low
0:11:25 > 0:11:30and, even if there were a yes vote, there would clearly be a period of
0:11:30 > 0:11:34what would be quite complex negotiations
0:11:34 > 0:11:36before any independence took effect.
0:11:38 > 0:11:41The future of Trident is the perhaps the single biggest issue
0:11:41 > 0:11:44raised by the referendum for the rest of the UK.
0:11:44 > 0:11:48But few in Westminster admit to doing any planning
0:11:48 > 0:11:51for what should happen if Scotland votes yes.
0:11:51 > 0:11:54I was amazed at this because we contingency plan for everything,
0:11:54 > 0:11:57quite rightly, that's what part of the things the state is for.
0:11:57 > 0:11:59They said, "Well, if we did start contingency planning,
0:11:59 > 0:12:02"the fact that we were would leak and Alec Salmond would then say,
0:12:02 > 0:12:06'Look, they are getting ready for it, it shows it's viable.'"
0:12:06 > 0:12:10And this shook me rigid because you cannot allow one politician,
0:12:10 > 0:12:13however gifted, however difficult to deal with,
0:12:13 > 0:12:17to make your own psychological weather down here to the point where
0:12:17 > 0:12:21you don't want to give him one glancing blow in a speech,
0:12:21 > 0:12:22"Look, they're getting ready for it,
0:12:22 > 0:12:25"therefore it's entirely practicable."
0:12:25 > 0:12:28It still takes my breath away that the edict went out
0:12:28 > 0:12:30there shall be no contingency planning.
0:12:32 > 0:12:36Some believe the speedy removal of the deterrent from Faslane
0:12:36 > 0:12:38could be its death knell.
0:12:38 > 0:12:41Stuart Crawford is the former army officer
0:12:41 > 0:12:43who wrote an influential paper
0:12:43 > 0:12:47on an independent Scotland's likely defence strategy.
0:12:48 > 0:12:52There is a very strong argument which suggest that
0:12:52 > 0:12:57if an independent Scotland were to insist on the removal of Trident
0:12:57 > 0:13:00from Scottish waters soon after independence,
0:13:00 > 0:13:04then it is effectively demanding the unilateral disarmament
0:13:04 > 0:13:07of the United Kingdom.
0:13:08 > 0:13:11Now, that is something that I find attractive, being a unilateralist,
0:13:11 > 0:13:14however, I don't think others would find it attractive.
0:13:14 > 0:13:18Westminster will certainly not find it attractive and, of course,
0:13:18 > 0:13:22the USA would find that very worrying indeed and would bring
0:13:22 > 0:13:26immense pressure on the government of an independent Scotland,
0:13:26 > 0:13:29through diplomacy and any other means they thought appropriate,
0:13:29 > 0:13:30to prevent this happening.
0:13:36 > 0:13:39But, for some, it can't come a moment too soon.
0:13:39 > 0:13:43This tree here I planted in 1985
0:13:43 > 0:13:46and, looking at the size of it, it makes me feel quite old.
0:13:50 > 0:13:54Jane Tallent has been campaigning for the removal of Trident
0:13:54 > 0:13:56from Scotland for 30 years.
0:13:56 > 0:14:00Like many unilateralists, she hopes that a yes vote could
0:14:00 > 0:14:04bring about the end, not just the removal, of the nuclear deterrent.
0:14:04 > 0:14:07She doesn't just want it gone from Faslane.
0:14:07 > 0:14:11Any part of England or Wales that's being asked to host it
0:14:11 > 0:14:14is going to start thinking, "Well, wait a minute,
0:14:14 > 0:14:18"the Scots don't want it, why on earth should we have it here?"
0:14:18 > 0:14:22The vast majority of people I know that are anti-Trident in England
0:14:22 > 0:14:23are just cheering us on.
0:14:23 > 0:14:25They see it the same way as we do,
0:14:25 > 0:14:28that it's a route to get rid of nuclear weapons.
0:14:28 > 0:14:30We want a yes vote because of this reason.
0:14:32 > 0:14:35The Scottish Nationalist position is unequivocal.
0:14:38 > 0:14:41Let me give this cast iron guarantee.
0:14:41 > 0:14:43A yes vote on September 18th
0:14:43 > 0:14:47is a vote to remove these weapons of mass destruction from Scotland
0:14:47 > 0:14:49once and for all.
0:14:49 > 0:14:52CHEERING AND APPLAUSE
0:14:52 > 0:14:55Despite the Nationalists insisting that removing Trident
0:14:55 > 0:14:58is non-negotiable, some in Westminster are adamant that
0:14:58 > 0:15:02a yes vote would not lead to the loss of Britain's nuclear deterrent.
0:15:05 > 0:15:10Would that lead to us abandoning our nuclear deterrent, as a result
0:15:10 > 0:15:12of force majeure by Scotland?
0:15:12 > 0:15:14No, of course it wouldn't. Not for a second.
0:15:14 > 0:15:17I'm not going to speculate about how we'd be able to achieve that,
0:15:17 > 0:15:22but I will just say without peradventure that, regardless
0:15:22 > 0:15:27of decisions made in Scotland, the rest of the United Kingdom
0:15:27 > 0:15:32would maintain its nuclear deterrent and its capability as long as
0:15:32 > 0:15:34the Westminster parliament determined that.
0:15:34 > 0:15:37So where would it be based then, the nuclear deterrent?
0:15:37 > 0:15:40I'm not an expert on this. I'm not going to speculate about it.
0:15:43 > 0:15:47Gus O'Donnell was once Britain's most senior civil servant.
0:15:47 > 0:15:50He believes that, even if the deterrent was retained,
0:15:50 > 0:15:54independence might mean it has to take another form.
0:15:54 > 0:15:58There are different ways of having a nuclear deterrent.
0:15:58 > 0:16:00You could go back to exploring those other options -
0:16:00 > 0:16:03airborne cruise missiles, all sorts of other possibilities,
0:16:03 > 0:16:07so, you know, you could be a nuclear power without necessarily
0:16:07 > 0:16:09being one that's based around Trident.
0:16:09 > 0:16:11So it could reopen the whole debate about Trident?
0:16:11 > 0:16:14I think it might well reopen the debate about Trident, yes.
0:16:16 > 0:16:20But finding an alternative to Trident would not be easy.
0:16:21 > 0:16:23Scotland could be the trigger
0:16:23 > 0:16:26for the unilateral nuclear disarmament of the United Kingdom.
0:16:26 > 0:16:28The United States doesn't want this.
0:16:28 > 0:16:31The United States is very, very keen for us to remain
0:16:31 > 0:16:32a nuclear weapon state.
0:16:32 > 0:16:35And the...
0:16:35 > 0:16:37It wouldn't...
0:16:37 > 0:16:39If you're going to cease to be a nuclear weapon state,
0:16:39 > 0:16:42you need a very long debate and it needs to be UK-wide
0:16:42 > 0:16:45and it needs to be thought through very, very carefully indeed.
0:16:53 > 0:16:56With nowhere else to relocate the deterrent south of the border,
0:16:56 > 0:17:00certainly not in the short term, if an independent Scotland stuck
0:17:00 > 0:17:04to its guns, it could be the end of Britain as a nuclear power,
0:17:04 > 0:17:07not because of a democratic decision taken by the rest of the UK,
0:17:07 > 0:17:12but as a consequence of the Scots voting for independence.
0:17:12 > 0:17:16In effect, an enforced unilateral nuclear disarmament.
0:17:19 > 0:17:21The next big question is this.
0:17:21 > 0:17:23If Scotland votes for independence,
0:17:23 > 0:17:27where does that leave the rest of the UK in the eyes of the world?
0:17:30 > 0:17:31Britain's place in the world
0:17:31 > 0:17:34is clearly much reduced from the height of Empire,
0:17:34 > 0:17:36when it was a global super power.
0:17:36 > 0:17:39But even after years of post-Imperial decline,
0:17:39 > 0:17:43it's still a country that matters on the world stage...
0:17:47 > 0:17:50a nuclear-armed power with formidable conventional forces,
0:17:50 > 0:17:53a permanent member of the UN Security Council,
0:17:53 > 0:17:56the second most important member of NATO,
0:17:56 > 0:18:00a key player in the European Union and the Commonwealth,
0:18:00 > 0:18:01America's special friend.
0:18:04 > 0:18:05The question is
0:18:05 > 0:18:09how much of all that would survive if Scotland leaves?
0:18:09 > 0:18:12Would the rest of the world not want to revaluate
0:18:12 > 0:18:16the real global significance of what was left of the UK?
0:18:19 > 0:18:22In June, the most powerful man in the world made what was taken to be
0:18:22 > 0:18:26a pointed reference to his position on the independence debate.
0:18:28 > 0:18:34We obviously have a deep interest in making sure that
0:18:34 > 0:18:39one of the closest allies that we will ever have
0:18:39 > 0:18:45remains a strong, robust, united and effective partner.
0:18:45 > 0:18:48But, ultimately, these are the decisions that are to be made
0:18:48 > 0:18:50by the folks there.
0:18:50 > 0:18:54MUSIC: "Land Of Hope And Glory"
0:18:54 > 0:18:56If Scotland votes for independence,
0:18:56 > 0:18:59the UK will lose over five million people
0:18:59 > 0:19:01and a third of its land mass.
0:19:03 > 0:19:05Would England, Wales and Northern Ireland
0:19:05 > 0:19:09carry less clout in the world, even with our closest allies?
0:19:10 > 0:19:12The United Kingdom will be smaller.
0:19:12 > 0:19:16It will have less voting power inside the European Union.
0:19:16 > 0:19:20Should the United Kingdom be continuing as a permanent member
0:19:20 > 0:19:23of the Security Council, will clearly gain new impetus
0:19:23 > 0:19:26from those of the BRIC countries, the developing world,
0:19:26 > 0:19:30those who would now regard themselves as the new kids on the block,
0:19:30 > 0:19:34saying, "Hang on, why is this old, now even diminished power,
0:19:34 > 0:19:36"still apparently having a crucial role?"
0:19:40 > 0:19:43The emerging powers like India, Brazil and China
0:19:43 > 0:19:47are already demanding a bigger say in global institutions,
0:19:47 > 0:19:50such as the International Monetary Fund and World Bank,
0:19:50 > 0:19:55where, for historic reasons, the UK retains disproportionate power.
0:19:55 > 0:19:58Scottish independence could be the trigger for the new giants
0:19:58 > 0:20:02of the 21st century to up their demands that Britain give up
0:20:02 > 0:20:05some of its power and prestige.
0:20:05 > 0:20:09There are already pressures on all of the international architecture,
0:20:09 > 0:20:14if you like, to reflect the changing economic weights of the world.
0:20:14 > 0:20:20You know, China's rise, taking over the US as number one in due course,
0:20:20 > 0:20:22but the UK, this will be, roughly, what,
0:20:22 > 0:20:26an 8 to 10% fall in our standing in terms of GDP?
0:20:26 > 0:20:30It would diminish our economic weight, most certainly.
0:20:34 > 0:20:38Others see this as an opportunity rather than a threat -
0:20:38 > 0:20:41independence might force a smaller United Kingdom
0:20:41 > 0:20:45to face up to the reality of its diminished power.
0:20:45 > 0:20:48I think the rest of the world doesn't give a damn.
0:20:48 > 0:20:50I really don't think it's going to make that much difference.
0:20:50 > 0:20:53I think we should use the opportunity of Scotland going
0:20:53 > 0:20:55as a way of basically cutting more out of defence.
0:20:55 > 0:20:57We're not defending Scotland,
0:20:57 > 0:21:01we shouldn't need whatever ships we're using to do so.
0:21:01 > 0:21:04We should retreat to fortress England and stop there.
0:21:06 > 0:21:07Even those who would regret
0:21:07 > 0:21:10the reduction of Britain's footprint on the global stage
0:21:10 > 0:21:14acknowledge that Scottish independence would be a time for
0:21:14 > 0:21:17the rest of the UK to do some soul-searching.
0:21:19 > 0:21:23There are those who say we've spent a great deal of money and effort
0:21:23 > 0:21:27and scientific resource on keeping up appearances in the world.
0:21:27 > 0:21:28Isn't this the moment to scale down
0:21:28 > 0:21:31and just become a modest little country,
0:21:31 > 0:21:34tucked up within a big regional organisation called the EU?
0:21:34 > 0:21:38It just adds to the Scottish question as a first-order question,
0:21:38 > 0:21:41a question of immense magnitude for the whole UK
0:21:41 > 0:21:43and its place in the world and the way it sees itself,
0:21:43 > 0:21:45the way it imagines itself.
0:21:48 > 0:21:51Power, influence, status on the global stage -
0:21:51 > 0:21:53these are intangible things.
0:21:53 > 0:21:56They probably matter more here in Westminster
0:21:56 > 0:21:58than they do on Acacia Avenue.
0:21:58 > 0:22:02But for a people used to belonging to a country that matters,
0:22:02 > 0:22:04the prospect that without Scotland
0:22:04 > 0:22:07the rest of the United Kingdom would not be as important,
0:22:07 > 0:22:11could be relegated from the top tables of power and influence,
0:22:11 > 0:22:13that could hurt.
0:22:18 > 0:22:21If Scotland does vote to quit the UK,
0:22:21 > 0:22:25that's not the end of the matter - in fact, it's just the start.
0:22:25 > 0:22:28The ties that bind Scotland and England have weakened
0:22:28 > 0:22:30since Edinburgh got its own parliament,
0:22:30 > 0:22:33but they're still deep, complex, historic.
0:22:33 > 0:22:37The folks here in Berwick upon Tweed know that better than most.
0:22:48 > 0:22:52Berwick sits right on the border between Scotland and England.
0:22:55 > 0:22:57Today, its residents are riding the bounds -
0:22:57 > 0:23:01an ancient tradition marking the town's boundaries
0:23:01 > 0:23:03and guarding against the marauding Scots.
0:23:09 > 0:23:12Over the centuries, this town has been fought over
0:23:12 > 0:23:15and passed back and forth between Scotland and England.
0:23:15 > 0:23:18Today it's in England, but it feels like it could be in Scotland.
0:23:18 > 0:23:20And even the football team, Berwick Rangers,
0:23:20 > 0:23:22plays in the Scottish League.
0:23:22 > 0:23:26Come here and you quickly realise how difficult,
0:23:26 > 0:23:30how complicated, it will be to disentangle these two countries.
0:23:33 > 0:23:37And that's likely to be a long and complex legal process.
0:23:38 > 0:23:42What we have to understand here is a vote in a referendum
0:23:42 > 0:23:45does not constitute independence.
0:23:45 > 0:23:48You need legislation in all sorts of area.
0:23:48 > 0:23:51So, there will need to be legislation passed by Parliament
0:23:51 > 0:23:54to make a reality of that.
0:23:54 > 0:23:58And this is the problem about people's reluctance to think about
0:23:58 > 0:24:02the consequences of a yes for the rest of the UK.
0:24:04 > 0:24:08We are, again, in unconstitutionally uncharted territory.
0:24:11 > 0:24:13The Scottish Government wants a swift separation.
0:24:13 > 0:24:16It says that if Scotland votes yes in September,
0:24:16 > 0:24:19it should be possible to conclude the talks in time for an
0:24:19 > 0:24:22independence day in March 2016.
0:24:22 > 0:24:26But that's a tight timetable when you consider all the thorny issues -
0:24:26 > 0:24:28the national debt, nuclear deterrent,
0:24:28 > 0:24:31conventional military forces, monetary union -
0:24:31 > 0:24:33that need to be resolved.
0:24:33 > 0:24:36It's even tighter if the negotiations turn acrimonious.
0:24:39 > 0:24:42Independence talks would dominate the governments of London
0:24:42 > 0:24:45and Edinburgh for months, if not years.
0:24:47 > 0:24:50The Scottish Government's negotiating position in
0:24:50 > 0:24:54the event of a yes vote is already a matter of public record,
0:24:54 > 0:24:57but there is no evidence the British government
0:24:57 > 0:25:02has done any thinking on what its negotiating position would be.
0:25:02 > 0:25:05If it has, it's not telling.
0:25:05 > 0:25:08That could further complicate what could be
0:25:08 > 0:25:10the trickiest set of negotiations
0:25:10 > 0:25:13any Westminster government has ever had to deal with.
0:25:17 > 0:25:20You divide up very big things, like the national debt,
0:25:20 > 0:25:23but you get down to things like individual fighter aircraft
0:25:23 > 0:25:26and even individual paintings,
0:25:26 > 0:25:30in terms of cultural heritage of the paintings in
0:25:30 > 0:25:31the National Gallery here in London,
0:25:31 > 0:25:34how many arguably are Scotland's patrimony
0:25:34 > 0:25:36and so should belong to an independent Scotland?
0:25:36 > 0:25:39And vice versa for the paintings in Edinburgh?
0:25:41 > 0:25:45The only recent example of two European nations going their own way
0:25:45 > 0:25:48is the Velvet Divorce of Czechoslovakia into
0:25:48 > 0:25:53the Czech Republic and Slovakia in the early 1990s.
0:25:53 > 0:25:57It was small beer compared to what the UK might face, even so
0:25:57 > 0:26:02disentangling the two nations required 31 separate treaties
0:26:02 > 0:26:05and some 12,000 legal agreements.
0:26:07 > 0:26:11Even in cases like the Velvet Divorce in Czechoslovakia,
0:26:11 > 0:26:15years and years on they're still arguing about certain assets
0:26:15 > 0:26:17as to who owns them.
0:26:17 > 0:26:19So it could take a very long time.
0:26:19 > 0:26:24That's not to say that you can't come to a point where you can reach
0:26:24 > 0:26:25the end of a deal on independence,
0:26:25 > 0:26:29but you'd still have lots and lots of issues unresolved at that point.
0:26:30 > 0:26:33Of course, there might be powerful, practical reasons
0:26:33 > 0:26:35to get a deal hammered out quickly.
0:26:37 > 0:26:42It's in the interest of neither side to prolong the negotiations
0:26:42 > 0:26:46because it will be very debilitating for citizens, for businesses,
0:26:46 > 0:26:50for the economy and for our international partners
0:26:50 > 0:26:52until we have certainty about the terms
0:26:52 > 0:26:54on which Scotland becomes independent.
0:26:54 > 0:26:58And the SNP is adamant that Westminster is overstating
0:26:58 > 0:27:00the difficulty of reaching a settlement.
0:27:02 > 0:27:05There is literally no other country in the world
0:27:05 > 0:27:08which has as much experience
0:27:08 > 0:27:13of transitioning parts of the world to sovereignty than the UK.
0:27:13 > 0:27:17There is no centre of government which has more experience
0:27:17 > 0:27:19in doing this than Whitehall.
0:27:23 > 0:27:27Others fear the negotiations could become much more fraught -
0:27:27 > 0:27:28divorces often are.
0:27:30 > 0:27:33If it was bitter, full of animus,
0:27:33 > 0:27:37full of mutual accusation of insincerity,
0:27:37 > 0:27:39Scotland running against England and all the rest of it,
0:27:39 > 0:27:42which is quite an ingrained habit in the Scottish politics,
0:27:42 > 0:27:44I regret to say.
0:27:44 > 0:27:46And the English being ever more resentful,
0:27:46 > 0:27:48"Who are you? There's only five and a half million of you.
0:27:48 > 0:27:50"You're screwing us up big time.
0:27:50 > 0:27:53"You've done nothing but whinge for generations." You can hear it,
0:27:53 > 0:27:55all we ever get is the drizzle of complaint.
0:27:55 > 0:27:59A Scottish drizzle could lead to an English torrent of complaint
0:27:59 > 0:28:03if independence provokes a rise of nationalism south of the border.
0:28:03 > 0:28:06I want us to hold the United Kingdom together,
0:28:06 > 0:28:11but I'm afraid that there is growing segment of English voters
0:28:11 > 0:28:13who have gone way beyond that position, and they say,
0:28:13 > 0:28:16"We see this man, Salmond, on the telly, we see his supporters,
0:28:16 > 0:28:19"they're rude about us, they don't like us,
0:28:19 > 0:28:21"they don't support our football team."
0:28:21 > 0:28:25And if that turned into a ball of resentments,
0:28:25 > 0:28:28of seething resentment and recriminations,
0:28:28 > 0:28:32that could sour the relationship between the two sovereign countries
0:28:32 > 0:28:33for a very long time indeed.
0:28:37 > 0:28:40Scottish independence could have a profound impact on
0:28:40 > 0:28:41the whole of the UK.
0:28:43 > 0:28:47The past provides a guide to how the different nations might react.
0:28:48 > 0:28:51England has always dominated these islands by virtue of its size,
0:28:51 > 0:28:53population and wealth.
0:28:55 > 0:28:59First it subjugated Wales, then turned Ireland into a colony.
0:28:59 > 0:29:01It had similar plans for Scotland.
0:29:03 > 0:29:06You've got to remember that England, Scotland, Wales
0:29:06 > 0:29:07and Ireland were
0:29:07 > 0:29:09the first British Empire,
0:29:09 > 0:29:10but it was an English Empire.
0:29:10 > 0:29:12It goes back to the Dark Ages,
0:29:12 > 0:29:13but it was an empire
0:29:13 > 0:29:14of the Anglo Saxons.
0:29:14 > 0:29:18And the Anglo Saxons and the Normans conquered the half of the country
0:29:18 > 0:29:20that remained Celtic when they arrived,
0:29:20 > 0:29:21or when they began to take over.
0:29:21 > 0:29:25And ever since they still treated those parts of the British Isles as,
0:29:25 > 0:29:27in some sense, second class citizens.
0:29:28 > 0:29:29Hold.
0:29:31 > 0:29:33Hold.
0:29:37 > 0:29:39Hold.
0:29:43 > 0:29:44Hold!
0:29:44 > 0:29:49William Wallace's late 13th century battle for Scottish independence
0:29:49 > 0:29:51portrayed in the film Braveheart
0:29:51 > 0:29:53is ingrained in Scottish consciousness.
0:29:56 > 0:29:58Now!
0:30:11 > 0:30:15Eventually Wallace ended up being hung, drawn and quartered.
0:30:18 > 0:30:20This tower near Stirling commemorates him,
0:30:20 > 0:30:22and his fighting spirit.
0:30:25 > 0:30:29Despite centuries of English military expeditions north of the border,
0:30:29 > 0:30:34England never succeeded in conquering the troublesome Scots for long.
0:30:39 > 0:30:41The cult of William Wallace was precisely
0:30:41 > 0:30:44the emphasis on Wallace's success in the medieval period
0:30:44 > 0:30:45in preserving Scottish independence
0:30:45 > 0:30:47that it enabled England and Scotland
0:30:47 > 0:30:49to sit down at the negotiating
0:30:49 > 0:30:51table in 1707 as equal partners.
0:30:59 > 0:31:02When Scotland did unite with England, it was peaceful.
0:31:02 > 0:31:06England's last great Tudor monarch, Elizabeth I, died childless.
0:31:06 > 0:31:08The next in line was James Stuart,
0:31:08 > 0:31:11who was already James VI of Scotland.
0:31:12 > 0:31:15He moved his court from Holyrood in Edinburgh to London
0:31:15 > 0:31:21and, in 1603, became James I of the new United Kingdom
0:31:21 > 0:31:24of Scotland, England and Wales.
0:31:27 > 0:31:30James' reason to try and cement the Union are primarily dynastic -
0:31:30 > 0:31:34he wants the Stuarts to be rulers of England and Scotland.
0:31:34 > 0:31:37For him this has to be a new country of Great Britain, and his family,
0:31:37 > 0:31:39the Stuarts, its leaders.
0:31:44 > 0:31:47Just over a century after the Union of the Crowns came
0:31:47 > 0:31:50the Union of the Parliaments.
0:31:50 > 0:31:52The Act of Union in 1707
0:31:52 > 0:31:56wouldn't meet today's standards of democratic decision-making.
0:31:57 > 0:32:04# We're bought and sold for English gold
0:32:06 > 0:32:12# Such a parcel of rogues in a nation. #
0:32:12 > 0:32:15And a fair amount of bribery was involved to oil
0:32:15 > 0:32:18the Scottish path to Union.
0:32:18 > 0:32:21But it happened without armies or battles -
0:32:21 > 0:32:24though not without controversy which survives to this day.
0:32:26 > 0:32:29The Unions always cast quite a long shadow backwards and forwards,
0:32:29 > 0:32:32I mean, it was bitterly divisive at the time.
0:32:32 > 0:32:34And that's actually divided historians ever since.
0:32:34 > 0:32:37For some people, it's been this great act of statesmanship,
0:32:37 > 0:32:40for other people, it's been a sordid, sell out
0:32:40 > 0:32:41of the country's nation.
0:32:49 > 0:32:52The manner in which Scotland and England came together
0:32:52 > 0:32:55was very different from how Wales was joined with England.
0:32:59 > 0:33:00The Scots, in the end,
0:33:00 > 0:33:04broadly united with England on their own terms, unlike the Welsh.
0:33:07 > 0:33:11The Welsh model was very much one of incorporation, annexation,
0:33:11 > 0:33:14joining England, extending England's models of governance,
0:33:14 > 0:33:16to an outlying Celtic province,
0:33:16 > 0:33:20fundamentally different in a Scottish context.
0:33:23 > 0:33:25Scotland never lost what made it distinctive
0:33:25 > 0:33:28even as it was absorbed into the Union -
0:33:28 > 0:33:30its legal system, schools, universities
0:33:30 > 0:33:34and Church all retained their distinct Scottish roots.
0:33:36 > 0:33:41But Wales only started to rediscover its identity in the 19th century.
0:33:41 > 0:33:43It still feels it's short-changed.
0:33:43 > 0:33:47There's a deathless line in Andrew Rawnsley's book on New Labour
0:33:47 > 0:33:50where he says, "That in Blair's Downing Street,
0:33:50 > 0:33:53"Wales was seen as Scotland's smaller, uglier sister."
0:33:53 > 0:33:55And you know,
0:33:55 > 0:33:58it's a hard thing for a Welshmen to read, but I suspect it's true.
0:33:58 > 0:34:01I mean, there's very, very little serious attention
0:34:01 > 0:34:02to what's going on in Wales.
0:34:04 > 0:34:07Ireland was the last part of the British Isles to join the Union.
0:34:07 > 0:34:09It had been an English colony for centuries,
0:34:09 > 0:34:11but it wasn't until 1801
0:34:11 > 0:34:15that it was absorbed into the rest of the British Isles to create
0:34:15 > 0:34:18the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Ireland.
0:34:19 > 0:34:24Ireland was also the first to leave the Union when, in 1921,
0:34:24 > 0:34:26a Britain exhausted by war
0:34:26 > 0:34:30could no longer resist Irish demands for independence.
0:34:31 > 0:34:34This is the biggest constitutional change facing the United Kingdom
0:34:34 > 0:34:36since the separation of Ireland,
0:34:36 > 0:34:39what is now the Republic of Ireland, back in the 1920s.
0:34:39 > 0:34:42That was the last occasion when the United Kingdom
0:34:42 > 0:34:45lost a significant chunk of its existing territory.
0:34:50 > 0:34:53But Northern Ireland stayed in the Union
0:34:53 > 0:34:56and the reasons are significant for today's politics.
0:34:56 > 0:34:59A majority were Scottish and Protestant in origin,
0:34:59 > 0:35:01religion and even culture.
0:35:01 > 0:35:04They saw themselves as British rather than Irish,
0:35:04 > 0:35:07thanks to that Scottish connection.
0:35:07 > 0:35:11There is a very close relationship between Northern Ireland
0:35:11 > 0:35:14and particularly the west of Scotland,
0:35:14 > 0:35:17and that's been there for centuries.
0:35:17 > 0:35:21But it was really accentuated very much in
0:35:21 > 0:35:24the 19th century when Glasgow and Belfast,
0:35:24 > 0:35:26both major ship building,
0:35:26 > 0:35:29grew closely together, a very, very close relationship.
0:35:29 > 0:35:31But if Scotland went independent,
0:35:31 > 0:35:34those historic and ethnic ties could be weakened.
0:35:34 > 0:35:37They'd be to a country that was no longer part of the Union.
0:35:37 > 0:35:41And that could give Irish nationalism renewed momentum.
0:35:42 > 0:35:46If there was a yes vote in Scotland, then it would mean that an issue,
0:35:46 > 0:35:50which in Northern Ireland is dormant -
0:35:50 > 0:35:53the question of whether there should be a united Ireland -
0:35:53 > 0:35:54would become a live issue
0:35:54 > 0:35:58and it would have a huge impact on the politics of the situation.
0:35:58 > 0:36:01Northern Ireland's not the only place it could have a huge impact.
0:36:01 > 0:36:03If Scotland quits the Union,
0:36:03 > 0:36:06it could reshape England's national identity too.
0:36:11 > 0:36:13It doesn't get more English than Broadstairs in Kent.
0:36:22 > 0:36:26They even dress up in Victorian costumes...
0:36:26 > 0:36:27Oh-h!
0:36:27 > 0:36:32..to celebrate the local connections of that very English author
0:36:32 > 0:36:34Charles Dickens.
0:36:34 > 0:36:39But there is a feeling here that Scotland is getting special treatment.
0:36:39 > 0:36:42We are pampering to them.
0:36:42 > 0:36:46And we should stop doing that because once you do that
0:36:46 > 0:36:48you have to keep it up
0:36:48 > 0:36:50and is not going to do them any good in the end.
0:36:50 > 0:36:54If they are going to be independent, that's what it means - independent.
0:36:54 > 0:36:57They are not the same as us anyway, so let them have their independence.
0:36:59 > 0:37:02To me, it's United Kingdom and I wouldn't like it.
0:37:03 > 0:37:05I hope they don't go.
0:37:08 > 0:37:12The English flag is something, when I was a boy,
0:37:12 > 0:37:15you literally never saw. You now drive down the country lanes of
0:37:15 > 0:37:18East Sussex and a lot of houses fly the cross of St George,
0:37:18 > 0:37:21so a sense of Englishness has grown.
0:37:21 > 0:37:24I think devolution has, of course, encouraged that.
0:37:24 > 0:37:26And there is a feeling,
0:37:26 > 0:37:29quite a legitimate one, I think, well, it's all well and good,
0:37:29 > 0:37:32isn't it, that Scottish nationalism and Irish nationalism
0:37:32 > 0:37:36and Welsh nationalism are almost regarded by the metropolitan elite
0:37:36 > 0:37:39and the media as being trendy, and really rather good,
0:37:39 > 0:37:41but anybody that stands up and asserts Englishness,
0:37:41 > 0:37:43Oh, dear, dear, dear, that's just awful.
0:37:44 > 0:37:47It's only when they're empty that you do that.
0:37:47 > 0:37:50An already growing sense of English identity could easily develop into
0:37:50 > 0:37:53a more assertive English nationalism
0:37:53 > 0:37:55if Scotland voted to leave the Union.
0:37:57 > 0:37:59We are standing up for the English voice.
0:37:59 > 0:38:02Now, that doesn't mean we're against the rest of the United Kingdom,
0:38:02 > 0:38:04far from it, we've actually got elected representation
0:38:04 > 0:38:07in all four corners of the United Kingdom,
0:38:07 > 0:38:12but I think one of the reasons that we've been growing in size is,
0:38:12 > 0:38:15we've recognised the perceived unfairness of the English position.
0:38:15 > 0:38:18Has it crossed your mind that the Scottish question
0:38:18 > 0:38:23could be as big a source of English votes for you as Europe is?
0:38:23 > 0:38:27Yes. And I think quietly bubbling away it already has been.
0:38:28 > 0:38:32This sense of unfairness is most acutely felt
0:38:32 > 0:38:34when it comes to public spending.
0:38:34 > 0:38:38Most folk south of the border think Scotland gets more public spending
0:38:38 > 0:38:40than the rest of the UK.
0:38:40 > 0:38:42They look north, they see free prescriptions,
0:38:42 > 0:38:45free university places, free care for the elderly
0:38:45 > 0:38:47and they wonder why are we subsiding
0:38:47 > 0:38:52the Scots to get all this free stuff that we don't enjoy ourselves?
0:38:52 > 0:38:55In so far as English people think about this subject at all,
0:38:55 > 0:38:57which I think is minimal, they'll probably think
0:38:57 > 0:39:00the Scots have been taking their money for decades,
0:39:00 > 0:39:01they'll save them money.
0:39:01 > 0:39:05They are fed up with this subject, they don't go to Scotland very much.
0:39:05 > 0:39:07It's a sort of foreign country to them.
0:39:07 > 0:39:12There's lots of evidence that the English public is resentful of
0:39:12 > 0:39:14levels of public spending in Scotland.
0:39:14 > 0:39:18The English perceive Scotland as getting a really good deal out of
0:39:18 > 0:39:21the Union, and certainly in Wales there's a sense that
0:39:21 > 0:39:24we are actually being unfairly treated here.
0:39:26 > 0:39:29And it's true, public spending is higher in Scotland than
0:39:29 > 0:39:31the average for the rest of the UK -
0:39:31 > 0:39:35at least 10% higher per head of population.
0:39:35 > 0:39:38So, wouldn't the rest of the UK be better off without Scotland -
0:39:38 > 0:39:42wouldn't independence for Scotland mean a tartan dividend for
0:39:42 > 0:39:44the rest of the country?
0:39:51 > 0:39:52Well, probably not.
0:39:52 > 0:39:55An independent Scotland would likely take most of
0:39:55 > 0:39:57the revenues from North Sea oil with it.
0:39:57 > 0:40:01The loss of that to the London Treasury could offset any gain
0:40:01 > 0:40:06from no longer financing higher public spending north of the border.
0:40:06 > 0:40:08There's not really a bonanza here for the rest of the UK,
0:40:08 > 0:40:11it's important to be clear about two countervailing effects.
0:40:11 > 0:40:15One is that, yes, spending in Scotland is higher than elsewhere
0:40:15 > 0:40:18and taxes are about the same, so you'd expect that to mean that would
0:40:18 > 0:40:23save the rest of us money, but oil revenues in Scotland,
0:40:23 > 0:40:25at least over the last several years,
0:40:25 > 0:40:27have more than made up for that.
0:40:27 > 0:40:32Going forward and actually this year or last, that's not been quite true.
0:40:32 > 0:40:35So going forward, they may make a marginally positive effect on
0:40:35 > 0:40:40the finances on the rest of the UK, but only marginal.
0:40:41 > 0:40:45So, the financial impact on the rest of the UK might be minimal,
0:40:45 > 0:40:49but the impact on its cultural identity could be profound.
0:40:52 > 0:40:56Some believe that even that most famous symbol of British nationhood
0:40:56 > 0:41:01and national identity - the Union Flag - might have to go.
0:41:01 > 0:41:04After all, it's a visual symbol of a Union of four nations
0:41:04 > 0:41:06that would no longer exist.
0:41:09 > 0:41:13It was meant to be royal blue...
0:41:13 > 0:41:15The birth of the Union Flag was controversial.
0:41:15 > 0:41:18There was a battle for dominance between
0:41:18 > 0:41:22the Scottish blue of St Andrew and the red cross of St George.
0:41:22 > 0:41:24St George won.
0:41:24 > 0:41:27In 1603, James I of England
0:41:27 > 0:41:31decided he wanted a flag to represent his ships.
0:41:31 > 0:41:34So, he created the first Union Flag
0:41:34 > 0:41:38which was a combination of the flag of St George for England
0:41:38 > 0:41:40and St Andrew for Scotland.
0:41:40 > 0:41:43And that was the beginning of our flag.
0:41:43 > 0:41:47When Ireland joined the Union, the flag changed again.
0:41:47 > 0:41:51In 1801, we had the Union with Ireland,
0:41:51 > 0:41:54and in order to represent Ireland in the flag
0:41:54 > 0:41:57the heralds had to come up with a symbol for Ireland,
0:41:57 > 0:42:02and they chose the Fitzgerald's Cross which they called
0:42:02 > 0:42:06St Patrick's Cross and incorporated it over the saltire of Scotland.
0:42:09 > 0:42:13There was a time when the Union Flag flew over a quarter of the globe,
0:42:13 > 0:42:17the Imperial symbol of an Empire on which the sun never set.
0:42:18 > 0:42:20If Scotland voted for independence,
0:42:20 > 0:42:25could it even remain as the national flag of the rest of the UK?
0:42:26 > 0:42:28The Union Flag would be dead.
0:42:28 > 0:42:32There's no way. St Patrick's gone, he's still there, miraculously.
0:42:32 > 0:42:35But if you take St Andrew out of it as well, I mean, it's in tatters.
0:42:35 > 0:42:37You've got this flag of St George,
0:42:37 > 0:42:39but what you going do about the Welsh?
0:42:39 > 0:42:42I mean, you know, stick a dragon in one of the corners?
0:42:42 > 0:42:45Someone's got to redesign that flag, and urgently.
0:42:47 > 0:42:50But it might not be that easy.
0:42:50 > 0:42:53There's no obvious straightforward alternative.
0:42:53 > 0:42:56We haven't even touched on multiculturalism,
0:42:56 > 0:42:59we've just assumed that you're going to go for the Christian saints
0:42:59 > 0:43:02and reorganise them, but if you're going to start talking about
0:43:02 > 0:43:07changing the flag, then what about all the ethnic minorities?
0:43:07 > 0:43:12Start from scratch and have a flag that represents what's left of
0:43:12 > 0:43:14the UK in the 21st century.
0:43:14 > 0:43:19Well, that's what South Africa did when they created their flag.
0:43:19 > 0:43:21The modern flag of South Africa bears no resemblance to
0:43:21 > 0:43:26the old flag of South Africa and they literally just started again.
0:43:30 > 0:43:34Losing a national flag that became a global symbol for everything
0:43:34 > 0:43:36British would be one thing,
0:43:36 > 0:43:39but it wouldn't just be a country without a flag -
0:43:39 > 0:43:41it could also be a country without a name.
0:43:43 > 0:43:46What do we call the rest of the United Kingdom?
0:43:46 > 0:43:48I think it should be called England.
0:43:49 > 0:43:51Have you run this past the Welsh and the Northern Irish?
0:43:51 > 0:43:53Well, you know, that's their decision.
0:43:53 > 0:43:56I mean, it will be called the United Kingdom, I'm sure,
0:43:56 > 0:43:59but you can't call it the United Kingdom of Britain
0:43:59 > 0:44:01and Northern Ireland, you just can't.
0:44:01 > 0:44:02I mean, Britain no longer exists.
0:44:02 > 0:44:06Of course, from a Welsh perspective, we don't really feature in
0:44:06 > 0:44:09the name or the flag of the current state.
0:44:09 > 0:44:12I'm not sure we're very confident that we'd feature in
0:44:12 > 0:44:15the name or the flag of any successor states.
0:44:15 > 0:44:18David Melding, the Conservative politician in Wales, has suggested
0:44:18 > 0:44:22"Little Britain" as the name for the remaining UK,
0:44:22 > 0:44:25which I think is tongue-in-cheek, but it might be appropriate.
0:44:26 > 0:44:29It's like that pop singer, the artist formerly know as Prince,
0:44:29 > 0:44:32the kingdom formerly know as the United Kingdom.
0:44:32 > 0:44:34I think the BBC should run a competition
0:44:34 > 0:44:35for what we'd be called afterwards.
0:44:38 > 0:44:42Unless and until Scotland votes for independence,
0:44:42 > 0:44:46Westminster politicians won't even admit to thinking about such matters
0:44:46 > 0:44:49much less talking about them. But there is one area,
0:44:49 > 0:44:51very important to the folks over in that building,
0:44:51 > 0:44:54that they are beginning to turn their minds to -
0:44:54 > 0:44:55should Scotland vote yes -
0:44:55 > 0:44:59the fall-out for how they do politics in Westminster.
0:45:00 > 0:45:04There are twice as many pandas in Edinburgh zoo, two,
0:45:04 > 0:45:08than Scottish Tory MPs in Westminster, one, so goes the joke.
0:45:08 > 0:45:11But David Cameron, who is proud of his Scottish ancestry,
0:45:11 > 0:45:15has made it clear this fight to save the Union is personal.
0:45:15 > 0:45:17It is an issue of the heart,
0:45:17 > 0:45:21and it would break my heart to see our United Kingdom break apart.
0:45:21 > 0:45:24So, yes, let's go through the arguments,
0:45:24 > 0:45:27the pounds, shillings and pence, but let's also remember
0:45:27 > 0:45:30what lies in here, about what we have done together.
0:45:31 > 0:45:34But having staked so much on keeping Scotland in the Union,
0:45:34 > 0:45:38could independence break not just his heart, but his premiership?
0:45:41 > 0:45:43On the day after, the votes come in
0:45:43 > 0:45:47and we discover that Scotland has voted for independence,
0:45:47 > 0:45:50does the Prime Minister have to resign?
0:45:51 > 0:45:54Gosh, that's his call, really.
0:45:54 > 0:45:58It will be a pretty humiliating point, let's put it that way.
0:45:58 > 0:46:00I mean, I don't want to make a call on what he's going to do,
0:46:00 > 0:46:03but it'll be a pretty humiliating point for any British Prime Minister
0:46:03 > 0:46:06to have lost a part of the Union. No doubt about that.
0:46:06 > 0:46:09A yes vote in Scotland would, as it were,
0:46:09 > 0:46:11destroy Cameron's place in the history books.
0:46:11 > 0:46:13He will become known as the Prime Minister
0:46:13 > 0:46:19who gambled on keeping Scotland in the Union and lost his gamble.
0:46:19 > 0:46:21Very, very difficult in those circumstances to...
0:46:21 > 0:46:24probably therefore to see how he could continue
0:46:24 > 0:46:28for any very great length of time.
0:46:33 > 0:46:36David Cameron has insisted he will not resign in
0:46:36 > 0:46:38the event of a yes vote in September.
0:46:38 > 0:46:41And the smart money in Westminster believes him.
0:46:41 > 0:46:44But having fought to save the Union and lost
0:46:44 > 0:46:46would leave a dark cloud hanging over him.
0:46:49 > 0:46:51But independence for Scotland wouldn't just leave
0:46:51 > 0:46:54David Cameron looking like the walking wounded,
0:46:54 > 0:46:57it could change the course of the 2015 General Election.
0:46:59 > 0:47:04That election would take place just as independence negotiations were gathering steam.
0:47:04 > 0:47:08By then, the rest of the UK would be thinking hard about
0:47:08 > 0:47:11its bargaining position with Edinburgh.
0:47:11 > 0:47:13The Scottish question will be a very big part in that
0:47:13 > 0:47:15general election following a yes vote.
0:47:15 > 0:47:18There'll be a bidding war, I think, amongst certainly
0:47:18 > 0:47:21the Conservative party and I suspect my own party too.
0:47:21 > 0:47:24I mean, we want to have a Union, but if they've said goodbye to us,
0:47:24 > 0:47:27I suspect that we will also be calling for
0:47:27 > 0:47:30quite tough separation terms.
0:47:30 > 0:47:32But much more than that,
0:47:32 > 0:47:35independence for Scotland could be a ticking time bomb
0:47:35 > 0:47:39under a Westminster parliament elected in 2015.
0:47:41 > 0:47:44Even if Scotland votes for independence in September,
0:47:44 > 0:47:46it won't have left the Union by the time of
0:47:46 > 0:47:48the general election next May.
0:47:48 > 0:47:51So, and here's a thing that will surprise many south of the border,
0:47:51 > 0:47:56Scotland would still send 59 MPs to the House of Commons in
0:47:56 > 0:47:58the 2015 General Election.
0:47:58 > 0:48:01But here's the thing, most of them are likely to be Labour -
0:48:01 > 0:48:06they could be the difference that puts Ed Miliband into Downing Street.
0:48:06 > 0:48:08But Scotland would be in the process of departing the UK,
0:48:08 > 0:48:12which means all Scottish MPs would exit Westminster
0:48:12 > 0:48:15sometime around the middle of the next Parliament.
0:48:15 > 0:48:18Prime Minister Miliband would be living on borrowed time.
0:48:18 > 0:48:21That must be a nightmare scenario for Ed Miliband
0:48:21 > 0:48:23and the Labour Shadow Cabinet.
0:48:23 > 0:48:26And if it's known that partway through the Parliament
0:48:26 > 0:48:28those Scottish MPs are bound to depart
0:48:28 > 0:48:33then that government will be seen as a transitional government,
0:48:33 > 0:48:36a lame-duck government right from the start.
0:48:36 > 0:48:41And people will know on independence day that it will lose its majority.
0:48:41 > 0:48:44And that will be a really, really difficult political position,
0:48:44 > 0:48:46I think, for that government to be in.
0:48:46 > 0:48:51To make it even more bizarre, that Labour government will then
0:48:51 > 0:48:56negotiate independence for Scotland and once those negotiations finish,
0:48:56 > 0:49:00they will almost be signing their death warrant.
0:49:00 > 0:49:01So, when you think about it,
0:49:01 > 0:49:05you begin to see what a big impact independence for Scotland would have
0:49:05 > 0:49:07on the rest of the UK's politics.
0:49:07 > 0:49:10It's huge. It's absolutely huge. And you're absolutely right,
0:49:10 > 0:49:13I don't think people have thought enough about this.
0:49:16 > 0:49:21Losing his majority midterm would be a real threat to any Miliband government.
0:49:21 > 0:49:23There would be demands for fresh elections,
0:49:23 > 0:49:27for a new country without Scotland, for the rest of the UK only.
0:49:27 > 0:49:31A whole new political landscape, less friendly to Labour -
0:49:31 > 0:49:34voting would be more dominated than ever by England -
0:49:34 > 0:49:35the Tory heartland.
0:49:35 > 0:49:38You would almost be able to hear the sound of the Tories
0:49:38 > 0:49:41licking their lips at the prospect of power again,
0:49:41 > 0:49:44perhaps after a few boundary changes for a generation.
0:49:47 > 0:49:51An independent Scotland would have changed the election result in 2010.
0:49:51 > 0:49:55There would have been no rose garden love-in, no coalition,
0:49:55 > 0:49:58instead a small overall Tory majority.
0:50:00 > 0:50:04So, are the Conservative likely to dominate what would be left of
0:50:04 > 0:50:07the UK post Scottish independence?
0:50:07 > 0:50:10It's often argued that indeed, if Scotland were to leave
0:50:10 > 0:50:13the United Kingdom that as a result, the rest of the United Kingdom
0:50:13 > 0:50:18would end up being as it were, a one party Conservative state.
0:50:18 > 0:50:22This is, I think, in truth, seriously exaggerated.
0:50:22 > 0:50:25Basically the Labour Party would need something like a 1%
0:50:25 > 0:50:29bigger swing to it, if it doesn't have Scottish MP's than if it did.
0:50:34 > 0:50:37So, Labour would run the risk of being in power less often,
0:50:37 > 0:50:40but they certainly wouldn't be locked out of Downing Street.
0:50:40 > 0:50:43In fact, under Tony Blair, even without Scotland,
0:50:43 > 0:50:46Labour would still have won in 1997,
0:50:46 > 0:50:52in 2001 and in 2005, albeit with reduced majorities.
0:50:52 > 0:50:54Independence for Scotland wouldn't change
0:50:54 > 0:50:57the result of every general election,
0:50:57 > 0:51:00but many believe it would shift the centre of political gravity
0:51:00 > 0:51:04in what remained of the United Kingdom.
0:51:04 > 0:51:07In the short term, there'd be difficulties.
0:51:07 > 0:51:13My own belief is that, however, what you'd see is a regrouping of
0:51:13 > 0:51:19the centre left inside England and Wales and longer term that you'd
0:51:19 > 0:51:23see Labour governments as often as you would have done within the UK.
0:51:23 > 0:51:28You would have a big realignment of politics and all of the parties
0:51:28 > 0:51:31would reassess their position where the centre of gravity, if you
0:51:31 > 0:51:35like, was, where the centre actually was positioned in the rest of the
0:51:35 > 0:51:39UK because it would have undoubtedly shifted somewhat to the right.
0:51:41 > 0:51:44There are those who think politics in the rest of the UK
0:51:44 > 0:51:47would be improved if Scotland went its own way...
0:51:55 > 0:51:59..that there would be a renaissance in the regions
0:51:59 > 0:52:01to challenge the dominance of London.
0:52:06 > 0:52:09I think one of the consequences of losing Scotland
0:52:09 > 0:52:11is England will become a more interesting place.
0:52:11 > 0:52:14Regional politics would be energised.
0:52:14 > 0:52:17You will have more of a sense of identity
0:52:17 > 0:52:20coming out of the West Country, coming out of Cumbria,
0:52:20 > 0:52:23coming out of the north-east, coming out of Yorkshire certainly.
0:52:23 > 0:52:26I think these will become more interesting places curiously.
0:52:26 > 0:52:29Because somehow or another just emotionally
0:52:29 > 0:52:31they feel squeezed between London and Edinburgh.
0:52:37 > 0:52:41For many on the left, like veteran radical songwriter Billy Bragg,
0:52:41 > 0:52:45Scotland leaving could reinvigorate English democracy.
0:52:47 > 0:52:50# Take down the Union Jack
0:52:50 > 0:52:54# It clashes with the sunset
0:52:54 > 0:52:59# And ask out Scottish neighbours if independence looks any good... #
0:52:59 > 0:53:02Well, it's true the people of England
0:53:02 > 0:53:04have not really looked closely at devolution,
0:53:04 > 0:53:05but you know how it is
0:53:05 > 0:53:09when your next-door neighbour gets a conservatory you look at it over
0:53:09 > 0:53:12the fence and you think, "That's handy," you look at your house
0:53:12 > 0:53:16and you think, "I wonder if we could have a conservatory."
0:53:16 > 0:53:22In those terms, it's to be able to see the benefits of devolution,
0:53:22 > 0:53:28independence, breaking away from the power of London.
0:53:28 > 0:53:35# To be an Anglo hyphen Saxon England dot co dot UK. #
0:53:35 > 0:53:39I think the arrogance of London will be questioned and challenged.
0:53:39 > 0:53:42London's grab on public expenditure for transport and so on,
0:53:42 > 0:53:44so it will be challenged.
0:53:44 > 0:53:47One of the reasons why I'm rather almost looking forward to it is,
0:53:47 > 0:53:49it'll make politics more interesting again.
0:53:52 > 0:53:55We've looked at what it might mean for the rest of the UK
0:53:55 > 0:53:57should Scotland vote for independence,
0:53:57 > 0:53:59what it might mean for Britain's position in the world,
0:53:59 > 0:54:02its militarily prowess, its diplomatic clout,
0:54:02 > 0:54:06even the way it does politics in Westminster and beyond.
0:54:06 > 0:54:10But if as the polls still suggest Scotland votes to stay in the Union,
0:54:10 > 0:54:12it's all irrelevant, isn't it?
0:54:12 > 0:54:15If Scotland votes no, it will be business as usual.
0:54:15 > 0:54:18Well, not quite.
0:54:19 > 0:54:22Vote no - that can mean further devolution,
0:54:22 > 0:54:25more power to the Scottish people and their Parliament,
0:54:25 > 0:54:28but with the crucial insurance policy that comes
0:54:28 > 0:54:30with being part of our United Kingdom.
0:54:33 > 0:54:36Tories, Labour and Lib Dems have all said that
0:54:36 > 0:54:39if Scotland stays in the Union there will be a further dose of
0:54:39 > 0:54:42devolution to the Scottish Parliament.
0:54:42 > 0:54:45There's talk of major tax-raising powers
0:54:45 > 0:54:47and even control of parts of the welfare state.
0:54:49 > 0:54:51The stronger the Scottish Parliament
0:54:51 > 0:54:54the more the English are likely to demand a reduction in
0:54:54 > 0:54:56Scottish power at Westminster,
0:54:56 > 0:54:58especially when it comes to English-only matters
0:54:58 > 0:55:00like schools or health.
0:55:02 > 0:55:07I've long taken the view that we need a slightly more federal answer,
0:55:07 > 0:55:10if you like, to the United Kingdom.
0:55:10 > 0:55:13There will be a strong call for the absolute minimum
0:55:13 > 0:55:16English votes on English measures.
0:55:16 > 0:55:19And it may well be stronger than that, it may well be going towards
0:55:19 > 0:55:22what Lord Forsyth once talked about,
0:55:22 > 0:55:27a two stage parliament that you sit for two days on UK matters
0:55:27 > 0:55:29and three days on English,
0:55:29 > 0:55:34or English and Welsh and Northern Irish matters.
0:55:34 > 0:55:39The English want a fair deal, and we cannot go on with Scottish,
0:55:39 > 0:55:41Welsh and Northern Irish MPs
0:55:41 > 0:55:44voting on English education,
0:55:44 > 0:55:46on fox hunting or anything else, a different deal is needed.
0:55:46 > 0:55:49If we get that deal right, the United Kingdom can survive.
0:55:53 > 0:55:55And if Edinburgh is to get more,
0:55:55 > 0:55:59we can be pretty sure Cardiff will want in on the act too.
0:56:00 > 0:56:03If there is a narrow no vote,
0:56:03 > 0:56:08and if that then frightens the horses in Westminster sufficiently
0:56:08 > 0:56:12to actually offer something much more generous to Scotland,
0:56:12 > 0:56:15I think there would then be a sense in Wales of,
0:56:15 > 0:56:19"Why are we being ignored in all of this?" And, interestingly, the
0:56:19 > 0:56:24Welsh First Minister, Carwyn Jones, has been very persistent in arguing
0:56:24 > 0:56:28there needs to be a constitutional convention for the whole of the UK.
0:56:34 > 0:56:36Change is coming to the rest of the UK
0:56:36 > 0:56:39however Scotland votes in September.
0:56:39 > 0:56:42If it's for independence, the global position
0:56:42 > 0:56:46and the domestic politics of what's left of the UK
0:56:46 > 0:56:50will never be quite the same again, for good or ill.
0:56:52 > 0:56:57You can see a long running quite serious constitutional
0:56:57 > 0:57:01transformation taking place in the UK over the next decade or two.
0:57:03 > 0:57:05Even if Scotland votes to stay in the Union,
0:57:05 > 0:57:08further devolution of power to Edinburgh
0:57:08 > 0:57:11will likely provoke a clamour for Wales, Northern Ireland
0:57:11 > 0:57:16even England to have more control over their domestic affairs.
0:57:16 > 0:57:19Why aren't all the benefits that devolution
0:57:19 > 0:57:22can bring to the Scottish people,
0:57:22 > 0:57:25why can't the English not benefit from those things as well?
0:57:27 > 0:57:31The possibilities are immense - more powerful assemblies,
0:57:31 > 0:57:34even parliaments, in Belfast and Cardiff,
0:57:34 > 0:57:39only English MPs voting on purely English matters in Westminster,
0:57:39 > 0:57:43rising demands from the great English cities of the Midlands
0:57:43 > 0:57:46and the North that London gives up some of its power.
0:57:46 > 0:57:50It would be a wake-up call for the Westminster establishment.
0:57:51 > 0:57:55London politics and London editions of the national newspapers
0:57:55 > 0:57:58have not given this Scottish question the attention it deserves.
0:57:58 > 0:58:01It is a first order question - the configuration
0:58:01 > 0:58:04and make-up of your own country is a first order question.
0:58:09 > 0:58:13All that is a constitutional revolution in the making,
0:58:13 > 0:58:17even if the Union survives on September 18th.