:00:15. > :00:22.It is the dead of night on the choppy waters of the south coast. I
:00:23. > :00:29.am setting out to solve a political mystery. My journey, like so many
:00:30. > :00:35.before me, begins on a voyage to Britain. For decades, whether by sea
:00:36. > :00:41.or by air, millions have come to our shores, making as a nation of
:00:42. > :00:45.immigrants. But our anxiety about the next wave of arrivals has
:00:46. > :00:53.reached an all-time high. The question is why. The government is
:00:54. > :01:00.eager to be seen to be cracking down. Illegal immigrants are being
:01:01. > :01:08.told to go home. What nationality are you? Politicians are competing
:01:09. > :01:13.to talk tough. Immigration is too high and I wanted to cut. We need to
:01:14. > :01:18.have a cap on migration and make sure people who do come here work
:01:19. > :01:28.hard and play by the rules. Do you want to go back home? No, I don't.
:01:29. > :01:32.Britain must control its borders. The arrival of people from all over
:01:33. > :01:39.the world has changed the face of Britain for ever. Polish people came
:01:40. > :01:45.here to work. They wanted a decent life. Was it part of some secret
:01:46. > :01:49.plan for Britain. They have deliberately embarked on a policy of
:01:50. > :01:53.mass migration into this country without asking the people or their
:01:54. > :01:58.consent and without telling them it was going to happen. Was it a
:01:59. > :02:03.miscalculation? Addictions were catastrophic and they were wrong by
:02:04. > :02:06.a factor of ten. There were more predictions of another invasion by
:02:07. > :02:13.Romanians and Bulgarians, but it is yet to materialise. Some said
:02:14. > :02:19.Britain has a history of unnecessary panic about immigration. Letting
:02:20. > :02:22.those panics get out of control, is that it poisons the atmosphere in
:02:23. > :02:28.the UK and you get generalised prejudice direct it at people from
:02:29. > :02:33.overseas. Immigrants have helped make Britain wealthy, so could a
:02:34. > :02:37.backlash damaged the country? They have jobs, work and pay taxes. We
:02:38. > :02:43.should not fear it, we should welcome it. We should not fear it.
:02:44. > :02:47.In the past decade people have come to these shores in vast,
:02:48. > :02:53.unprecedented numbers. It is the greatest movement of people in our
:02:54. > :02:59.nation's history. How is it a subject that was once Tabuk is now
:03:00. > :03:06.on every politician's lips. Why is it the doors to Britain were flung
:03:07. > :03:11.over, and what are the benefits that the perils are now seeking to close
:03:12. > :03:24.them. What is The Truth About Immigration.
:03:25. > :03:34.Kick off down the local park. A crunch match in the league. What
:03:35. > :03:46.could be more British? The answer is quite a lot. This may be the Garden
:03:47. > :03:53.of England, but the players on these teams come from Romania or Bulgaria.
:03:54. > :04:00.Here in Kent, there is a whole league of teams like this. 160,000
:04:01. > :04:10.Romanians and Bulgarians were in Britain before the borders were
:04:11. > :04:16.fully opened a few days ago. Many came to pick fruit at farms like
:04:17. > :04:22.this one near Faversham. 140 East Europeans work here. I like the job
:04:23. > :04:31.here. I like to be outside on the field. People who don't know
:04:32. > :04:38.Romania, how much better is the money here to the money back at
:04:39. > :04:43.home? It is much better. You are an accountant and you are here picking
:04:44. > :04:50.strawberries in England? I make more money here than in Bulgaria. They
:04:51. > :04:57.own ?150 a month and what do you learn? ?150 a week. No wonder you
:04:58. > :05:02.are here. The farm is run by Alistair Brooks, he has hired his
:05:03. > :05:06.workers from abroad for years. Whenever he has tried to advertise
:05:07. > :05:11.locally, he has been disappointed. The last time we ran an advert at
:05:12. > :05:15.the beginning of the season, we got 25 applications and 11 turned up. At
:05:16. > :05:20.the end of the week we had five left, two of which were Polish and
:05:21. > :05:29.three were Slovakians. Not one Britain? Not one Britain. Where have
:05:30. > :05:32.they gone? Some of them did not turn up after the second day, some
:05:33. > :05:41.thought it was a bit hard. They won't come? No, they won't. These
:05:42. > :05:45.Bulgarians and Rumanian 's came here as part of a special agricultural
:05:46. > :05:50.scheme and for only six months a year. Now they and all their fellow
:05:51. > :05:55.countrymen are free to get permanent, better paid jobs. Not,
:05:56. > :05:59.they insist, something you need to worry about. Do you think
:06:00. > :06:08.immigration is good for the economy? It is, we have lorries coming every
:06:09. > :06:14.day, three and four lorries British farmers. They go into the
:06:15. > :06:20.supermarket. Then they get displayed on the shelf. Who is selling the
:06:21. > :06:27.fruit, it is the British. That in a nutshell, is the classic case for
:06:28. > :06:34.what immigrants bring to Britain. Their hard work makes all of us
:06:35. > :06:44.richer. But it does not look that clear-cut if mass immigration
:06:45. > :06:53.suddenly comes to your town. This is Sheffield's Page Hall district. It
:06:54. > :06:55.has hit the headlines thanks to tension caused by in influx of
:06:56. > :07:06.hundreds of Roma families from Slovakia. Locals complain about
:07:07. > :07:13.rubbish being dumped in the street, crime and anti-social behaviour. One
:07:14. > :07:21.Sheffield MP even warned of the dangers of an explosion. It is as if
:07:22. > :07:28.we have been overtaken. It is out of our control. When Asians moved in we
:07:29. > :07:31.did not have sofas dumped on the streets, mattresses dumped on the
:07:32. > :07:36.street, rubbish dumped on the street, televisions dumped on the
:07:37. > :07:40.street. Some of the things she has highlighted, I don't think the
:07:41. > :07:45.Pakistani community did that. They did come in large numbers about 30
:07:46. > :07:54.years ago. My father came here to work. If you got a lot of people
:07:55. > :07:59.here from Westminster, they say immigration is good for the country,
:08:00. > :08:04.we all get wealthier. Show me the books. How much do the schools cost,
:08:05. > :08:12.maternity especially. If I am wrong, it would be a pleasure to eat my
:08:13. > :08:15.words. Part of the problem is a culture clash. Many Roma have a
:08:16. > :08:20.tradition of gathering on street corners at night, which some
:08:21. > :08:23.long-term residents find intimidating. Ivan came here from
:08:24. > :08:29.Slovakia five years ago. Some people say there will be trouble here
:08:30. > :08:35.between the Slovaks and everybody else? What is the problem in this
:08:36. > :08:43.area? Some people don't respect English people. We have respect for
:08:44. > :08:50.the English people. Please respect English people. But many Roma feel
:08:51. > :08:54.they have been unfairly demonised. They have come from one of the
:08:55. > :09:02.poorest communities in Europe, looking for a better life. Here you
:09:03. > :09:09.can get maybe a job? Job, tax credits, child benefit. Housing
:09:10. > :09:15.benefit. It is OK, people are happy. Much more than in Slovakia? Yes, it
:09:16. > :09:19.is good here. Although there are tensions, if you think all the
:09:20. > :09:24.locals oppose immigration, think again. Most here are proud of the
:09:25. > :09:28.way immigrants have always blended in. I feel sure if we give time and
:09:29. > :09:35.these people would come to meetings with us, we could get them to
:09:36. > :09:42.integrate. It can be a good thing. Immigration can be? Of course it
:09:43. > :09:50.can, I am not anti-immigration, I am not against anybody. Come here into
:09:51. > :09:52.an area where the headlines of warned of an explosion between
:09:53. > :09:57.different racial groups, you would not imagine you would hear people
:09:58. > :10:02.demanding an end to immigration. But people here know it is a false
:10:03. > :10:08.choice between immigration good, and immigration bad. They probably know
:10:09. > :10:14.also, that for years, a grown-up debate about this has proved almost
:10:15. > :10:20.impossible to have. Impossible, thanks in large part to a single
:10:21. > :10:28.speech by a single politician, made 45 years ago after the last big wave
:10:29. > :10:37.of immigration. We must be mad. Literally mad, as a nation. To be
:10:38. > :10:44.permitting the annual inflow of some 50,000 dependents. The political
:10:45. > :10:53.elite was completely shocked by the resonance that his speech, rivers of
:10:54. > :10:58.blood speech had. It is like watching a nation busily engaged in
:10:59. > :11:06.heaping up its own funeral pyre. Secondly, what he did was to cast
:11:07. > :11:11.discussion about immigration purely in racial terms. And that is why it
:11:12. > :11:18.has been difficult to get a proper discussion about immigration for
:11:19. > :11:24.nearly half a century. For years, the fear of conflict, anger and even
:11:25. > :11:29.violence held back debate. Those who spoke out found a single phrase
:11:30. > :11:35.could ignite a political explosion. People are rather afraid this
:11:36. > :11:40.country might be swamped by people of a different culture. It is
:11:41. > :11:49.putting fear into people 's minds. She has created more violence.
:11:50. > :11:56.Political rows often focused on pandering to racism as this poster
:11:57. > :12:02.graphically shows. If you raise the question of immigration and you are
:12:03. > :12:07.accused of being racist. There was a deliberate attempt to make it a no
:12:08. > :12:09.go area. Whether on the right or the left, those who have set out to
:12:10. > :12:16.limit immigration have found themselves accused of being
:12:17. > :12:21.inheritors of Enoch Powell's mantel. Immigration was a nightmare. It got
:12:22. > :12:28.more and more difficult. But now politicians on all sides want to
:12:29. > :12:33.appear to be getting tough. I think what people have seen is a concern
:12:34. > :12:36.about the pressures of the number of people coming into the country. It
:12:37. > :12:39.is those pressures that have led people to feel immigration is an
:12:40. > :12:46.issue that all additions should be addressing that has not been in the
:12:47. > :12:50.past. The level and the pace of migration has been too high. It is
:12:51. > :12:56.important to look at different kinds of migration and the impact they
:12:57. > :12:59.have as well. One politician claims vindication for daring to go where
:13:00. > :13:05.others once feared to tread. They tried to say anybody that dared talk
:13:06. > :13:11.about the subject was a bad person and racist. That is what they tried
:13:12. > :13:14.to do and this has been going on since Enoch Powell's speech. He was
:13:15. > :13:17.wrong in the sense that he felt black and white would find it
:13:18. > :13:23.difficult to mix. But he has been proved to be right because the
:13:24. > :13:28.numbers coming into Britain have led to segregation, ghettoisation and
:13:29. > :13:34.significant parts of our cities where people don't even speak
:13:35. > :13:38.English. Steaming into Southampton harbour is a reminder that Britain
:13:39. > :13:44.has a long history as a migration nation. Not exactly the Statue of
:13:45. > :13:49.Liberty, is it? Written does not have a monuments, we don't have the
:13:50. > :13:58.next script and saying, " bring us your huddled masses". Yet migrants
:13:59. > :14:02.have settled here, they have prospered and become the new
:14:03. > :14:08.Britons. Now people are asking if the tide of people coming needs to
:14:09. > :14:16.be slowed, halted even. They are beginning to ass, is this crowded
:14:17. > :14:21.island simply full up? In the ten years to 2012, net immigration to
:14:22. > :14:27.the UK was about 2.5 million people. That influx is roughly equivalent to
:14:28. > :14:41.ten times the population of Southampton. Like so many cities,
:14:42. > :14:54.Southampton has been transformed over the past decade. The number
:14:55. > :15:00.living here who were born abroad has doubled from 20,000, to around
:15:01. > :15:07.40,000. In one in 12 households, no one speaks English as their main
:15:08. > :15:16.language. And nowhere illustrates the change more vividly than St
:15:17. > :15:19.Mark's Primary School. They call themselves an international school,
:15:20. > :15:25.because only four out of ten of the children are white British. They
:15:26. > :15:32.speak 42 different languages, including two Zulu dialects. It is
:15:33. > :15:41.an extra challenges for teachers. But it is a successful school. This
:15:42. > :15:45.is probably 60% children with additional languages. 60% to 70%?
:15:46. > :15:54.It's a very, very challenging year group. There are, of course, many
:15:55. > :15:58.Polish children. So many, in fact, that the school employs
:15:59. > :16:11.Polish-speaking staff to translate for them.
:16:12. > :16:16.Demand for places from immigrant families has meant the school's
:16:17. > :16:22.almost doubled if size in just three years. It's now having to use
:16:23. > :16:28.temporary classrooms. If somebody said to you this has gone too far,
:16:29. > :16:31.we can't take this many people, the country's overcrowded how would you
:16:32. > :16:35.respond? I think it's a tricky question, because I'm not in
:16:36. > :16:39.Government. As a headteacher I get what comes through the door. We are
:16:40. > :16:43.full and I think parents coming into the city now need to appreciate that
:16:44. > :16:46.they can't pick and choose any more. That schools in the city are full to
:16:47. > :17:01.bursting. That's a warning the local Labour MP
:17:02. > :17:08.asked his own Government to listen to, even though he says the city's
:17:09. > :17:12.absorbed immigrants for centuries. Refugees came from France in the
:17:13. > :17:17.16th century and they lived in a part of town that is still known at
:17:18. > :17:21.French Street. John Denham wrote to Gordon Brown in 2006 to spell out
:17:22. > :17:24.how immigration was affecting Southampton. It had an impact in
:17:25. > :17:30.construction. Wages fell dramatically. In the Health Service
:17:31. > :17:35.the newer migrants who weren't used to having GPs tended to turn up at
:17:36. > :17:40.hospitals with minor ailments and colds, so a big impact. In private
:17:41. > :17:45.housing, it meant a lot of family housing was turned into renting
:17:46. > :17:49.houses often for several adults at a time. Across the city there was a
:17:50. > :17:52.sense of rapid change and the community feeling and sounding
:17:53. > :18:12.different to the way it had done before. The sound of Poland. Listen
:18:13. > :18:22.to this, Southampton's very own Polish punk show. There are now
:18:23. > :18:28.8,000 potential listeners in the city. An increase of 30-fold in the
:18:29. > :18:35.last ten years. One of the presenters Sheple came here -- Shem
:18:36. > :18:42.came here in 2006. They often say that Polish people have an easy life
:18:43. > :18:46.and they have benefit and a house. It's not - there are not many
:18:47. > :18:49.benefit takers. Poelds came here to work, because even if they work for
:18:50. > :18:58.the lowest wage they have a decent life. Walk in Southampton streets,
:18:59. > :19:03.it's clear it's not just Kop poles whocked -- -- it's not just Poles
:19:04. > :19:09.who flocked here, the city's Muslim population has more than doubled.
:19:10. > :19:21.This city, this country, doesn't look or sound as it once did.
:19:22. > :19:29.This is the country some remember and some still yearn for. The New
:19:30. > :19:34.Forest Show takes place just outside Southampton, but it feels a world
:19:35. > :19:42.away. Opposition to immigration is often rooted in a fear that things
:19:43. > :19:48.are change g too fast. I wanted to see if people here had an appetite
:19:49. > :19:52.for the facts. Ladies and gentlemen, can I gather you round? I have a
:19:53. > :19:59.question to ask you about the country. If I were to ask you how
:20:00. > :20:05.many immigrants are there in Britain as a proportion of the whole, is it
:20:06. > :20:10.a half? Is it more than a half, say three quarters? Is it about one
:20:11. > :20:14.third? Which is it? Who is going to step up first and just tell me what
:20:15. > :20:19.they think. I'll do the cutting. I think it might be a third. You think
:20:20. > :20:24.it might be a third. OK. You have that third. Thank you. Sir. You
:20:25. > :20:29.think? I'll go with the eighth. I think objectively it's not as much
:20:30. > :20:36.as people think. That's about an eighth. 25%. You think about a
:20:37. > :20:41.quarter of the British population were brorn abroad, that's what we
:20:42. > :20:52.mean? A quarter. Anyone want more than that? 75% of the population.
:20:53. > :20:59.North of Birmingham! You get 75%. That goes in there. There we are.
:21:00. > :21:06.That's yours. I can now announce the results. Who got closest to the
:21:07. > :21:14.immigrant population of Britain on our pie chart, Peter Snow eat your
:21:15. > :21:20.heart out. The answer is well done, Sir, an eighth.
:21:21. > :21:27.APPLAUSE The immigrant population of the UK
:21:28. > :21:31.is about 13%. Opinion polls show that most of us overestimate the
:21:32. > :21:38.numbers and think the answer is one third. Public concern should,
:21:39. > :21:43.though, not be underestimated. I remember Enoch Powell and I remember
:21:44. > :21:48.what his words were and I have thought about that all my life. I
:21:49. > :21:52.wouldn't want to see my more immigration. There's no jobs for
:21:53. > :21:58.English people. I don't have a problem that anyone that works and
:21:59. > :22:01.pays their way. My brother studies for ages to get a job and when a
:22:02. > :22:08.foreign person can come here and walk straight into a job. Those are
:22:09. > :22:16.views commonly held, but for a long time not listened to. According to
:22:17. > :22:22.to new research over three quarters of people want immigration to be
:22:23. > :22:27.cut. It's higher still among those with few qualifications. Well over
:22:28. > :22:32.half of the population want immigration to be cut by a lot. The
:22:33. > :22:39.highest figure since the question was first asked in the mid-1990s.
:22:40. > :22:43.The truth is, anyone who lives here has no clue whether there are ten
:22:44. > :22:46.million, one million or 1,000 immigrants. Today, of course, what
:22:47. > :22:51.has happened is there are more of them, we are meeting them as
:22:52. > :22:56.neighbours. We are meeting them as parents at our school and their
:22:57. > :23:00.children are sitting next to our children. We are meeting them in the
:23:01. > :23:05.doctors' surgeries and of course, we are meeting them as competitors for
:23:06. > :23:13.jobs. It all adds up to an awful lot of change. And that's led to an
:23:14. > :23:18.awful lot of unease. What's at the root of that public ank site is a
:23:19. > :23:22.single decision taken here with Westminster with remarkably little
:23:23. > :23:26.public debate and taken in Downing Street without, it seems, much
:23:27. > :23:30.thought. In 15 or 100 years time, historians are likely to say it's
:23:31. > :23:36.among the most significant taken since the Second World War. So what
:23:37. > :23:41.did they take it? Well, it's a remarkable story, a mixture of good
:23:42. > :23:51.intentions and wishful thinking and an awful lot of miscalculation. The
:23:52. > :23:58.story begins with the smashing of the barriers which divided Europe.
:23:59. > :24:05.After the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989 people from the East were free
:24:06. > :24:09.to move as never before. Britain's Tory government dreamed of them
:24:10. > :24:15.joining the EU too. Perhaps weakening Brussels at the same time.
:24:16. > :24:22.One man was in the room for the crucial decisions over the next 20
:24:23. > :24:27.years. Top Mandarin, Gus O'Donnell. I remember working with Sir John
:24:28. > :24:32.Major when he was saying we wanted a broader, not a deeperure, so we
:24:33. > :24:34.wanted to bring in Poland, the central and Eastern European
:24:35. > :24:40.countries and the truth is that there wasn't an enormous amount of
:24:41. > :24:44.discussion about what does that mean for the flow of migrants to the UK.
:24:45. > :24:49.When Labour took power, they were just as keen as welcoming the east.
:24:50. > :24:56.Tony Blair travelled to Poland to call for EU expansion to grow faster
:24:57. > :25:00.and wider. Tony Blair took a clear view, didn't he? He did, driven by
:25:01. > :25:04.the politics of wanting to give a clear message to countries like
:25:05. > :25:07.Poland, that actually we wanted them in. They're an important country and
:25:08. > :25:14.close ally and we wanted them playing a full part in Europe. In
:25:15. > :25:19.2004, Tony Blair got what he wanted. Britain didn't just welcome Poland
:25:20. > :25:23.and seven other countries into the EU. The British Government took
:25:24. > :25:28.another dramatic decision to welcome all their people to come here and
:25:29. > :25:32.work from the very day their countries joined. Unlike the
:25:33. > :25:39.governments of Germany, France, Italy, indeed most of the EU. One
:25:40. > :25:47.reason - a massive miscalculation about how many people would come.
:25:48. > :25:54.One of those who did come was Shemslav. When he's not playing punk
:25:55. > :25:58.rock on his Polish radio show, he works at a glass blower, making
:25:59. > :26:01.precision instruments at Southampton University. When Britain opened its
:26:02. > :26:07.doors to eastern Europeans, it was an opportunity that proved hard to
:26:08. > :26:11.resist. How many more do you earn as a glass blower here than you would
:26:12. > :26:19.in Poland? Six times. Six times more? Yep. And that's the standard
:26:20. > :26:23.of living? I never realised before I come here how difficult the life is
:26:24. > :26:29.in Poland. I just said, well, that's how it is, how it's supposed to be,
:26:30. > :26:35.but no, no, it hasn't got to be that way. And there were plenty of people
:26:36. > :26:40.thinking what he was thinking. Day and night, east European workers
:26:41. > :26:44.came by plane, boat, and coach-load, all eager to improve their standard
:26:45. > :26:49.of living. And as their numbers mounted, so too did the political
:26:50. > :26:54.temperature about letting in so many people so quickly. I raised this
:26:55. > :26:59.question repeatedly at Prime Minister's questions and I was told
:27:00. > :27:03.that I was scaremongering. Most other countries have already imposed
:27:04. > :27:08.controls. Why haven't the British government? It's precisely for that
:27:09. > :27:14.reason... He said we've had estimates and they were in the low
:27:15. > :27:19.thousands. That always seemed to be complete nonsense. The Home Office
:27:20. > :27:25.researchers concluded there was likely to be net migration of about
:27:26. > :27:30.13,000 people a year looking forward over the following ten years. How
:27:31. > :27:33.good were those predictions? The predictions were completely
:27:34. > :27:38.catastrophic. They were wrong by a factor of ten, in other words it
:27:39. > :27:51.wasn't 13,000, but something like 130,000. A year. About one million
:27:52. > :27:55.over ten years? Yes. It suits some politicians to blame the
:27:56. > :27:59.forecasters, for the choice they made to open the door to east
:28:00. > :28:04.Europeans. In truth, though, the decision had been taken effectively
:28:05. > :28:10.long before the final forecasts were in. At the time, there was another
:28:11. > :28:18.priority, how to find the people to fill the jobs in a booming economy.
:28:19. > :28:23.A new century brought with it renewed belief. We celebrated the
:28:24. > :28:30.Queen's Golden Jubilee. We spent and spent and spent. Symbols of our new
:28:31. > :28:35.prosperity sprung up. But worries were rising too. Without more
:28:36. > :28:46.workers might boom be followed by bust? Did Britain need immigrants to
:28:47. > :28:52.keep our economy growing? This is the man who gave Tony Blair the
:28:53. > :28:58.answer to that question. Jonathan PortaS was a economist working at
:28:59. > :29:02.Number Ten in the year 2000 he and a team of Civil Servants wrote a
:29:03. > :29:05.report examining the impact of immigration. Published with little
:29:06. > :29:12.fanfare it helped change the face of Britain. We found that immigrants on
:29:13. > :29:17.the whole made a positive contribution to the public finances.
:29:18. > :29:23.Certainly, enabled growth to carry on. It also met the concerns from
:29:24. > :29:33.quite a lot of businesses that they were face skill shortages in
:29:34. > :29:36.particular. Was there not also something where business, the
:29:37. > :29:40.Treasury and the Bank of England were worried that inflation would
:29:41. > :29:45.take off when growth was high and immigration was a way keeping the
:29:46. > :29:49.lid on wages? I'm sure the Treasury viewed immigration as potentially
:29:50. > :29:55.helpful in that way. And big business? And big business. And the
:29:56. > :29:58.Bank of England? Yes. They welcomed the report's conclusion at the
:29:59. > :30:03.Treasury. There is little evidence, it said, that native workers are
:30:04. > :30:06.harmed by migration. Any worries about negative impacts were trumped
:30:07. > :30:15.by the prospect of real economic benefits.
:30:16. > :30:25.With hindsight we might have wanted to slow it down but Polish people
:30:26. > :30:30.filled a gap. So nobody said 70 million people whose income is
:30:31. > :30:36.averaging a fifth of that in the UK, would not want to come here? That
:30:37. > :30:41.issue was put, but when they come they will be doing jobs UK people do
:30:42. > :30:47.not want to do and they will be meeting and filling our skill gap.
:30:48. > :30:52.So it was not seen as a threat, but an opportunity. Immigration was
:30:53. > :30:57.supposed to benefit us all, and the better off noticed. They noticed the
:30:58. > :31:04.cheaper Polish plumber or decorator and enjoyed the new delicatessen and
:31:05. > :31:08.down the road. But the worse off in society noticed something different,
:31:09. > :31:13.they thought their job was at risk, they thought their wages were being
:31:14. > :31:20.undercut and thought their identity was threatened. A big choice had
:31:21. > :31:22.been made by the politicians. But they had scarcely bothered to
:31:23. > :31:27.consult the public. Where people told, was the debate specifically
:31:28. > :31:33.about the decisions on Eastern Europe? We never cease to debate it
:31:34. > :31:37.in the House of Commons, the Conservatives used to grumble we had
:31:38. > :31:43.too many immigration bills. We did not spell out words in one syllable
:31:44. > :31:46.of what was happening, partly because of a fear of racism. The
:31:47. > :31:50.people of the country were not ass about it or told about it. I don't
:31:51. > :31:57.think that is the way in which Holler ticks in a democratic company
:31:58. > :32:01.-- country should be conducted. The public should have been told? Yes.
:32:02. > :32:07.At the time, ministers were afraid of what they now called the
:32:08. > :32:14.immigration tinderbox. Ministers now say it was a mistake. We should have
:32:15. > :32:16.had more of a debate, a sensible response to people's concerns but
:32:17. > :32:23.also listening to what those concerns were. People were worried
:32:24. > :32:27.about jobs, wages or the pace of change. And to have that debate
:32:28. > :32:33.about it rather than simply thinking, we cannot talk about it
:32:34. > :32:37.for fear that might be the politics of the right. The then Home
:32:38. > :32:40.Secretary says if East Europeans were not allowed to come here
:32:41. > :32:47.legally, they would have come anyway. I am unapologetic because if
:32:48. > :32:53.you don't have legal, managed migration and people don't sign up
:32:54. > :32:58.to pay national insurance and tax, they work illegally. Although we did
:32:59. > :33:02.not get everything right about this issue, we were on the side of the
:33:03. > :33:10.angels. Is Labour right to apologise? Personally I am sceptical
:33:11. > :33:18.about apologies, other than personal apologies. It debases the currency
:33:19. > :33:26.of the language. It is right to say we got it wrong and we deeply regret
:33:27. > :33:32.it. Why do you regret it? It undermines trust in government if
:33:33. > :33:38.you are that wrong. Mistake or not, this is a policy that unlike most
:33:39. > :33:42.politicians take, is irreversible. Many immigrants came and then
:33:43. > :33:51.returned home. But many more like this man, are here to stay. Polls
:33:52. > :34:00.are blending in. You cannot see them much, they just work. Home, work,
:34:01. > :34:06.home. They will be Polish to the end of their lives, like I will be, but
:34:07. > :34:18.my children will be English. The next generation Polish people will
:34:19. > :34:25.be English. Southampton's festival is proof of Britain's genius for
:34:26. > :34:30.absorbing immigrants. This is a celebration of the city's Asian
:34:31. > :34:36.community, which took root when Sikhs came to fight for Britain in
:34:37. > :34:40.the First World War. Today, those enjoying the music are often the
:34:41. > :34:47.children and grandchildren of immigrants, a first and foremost
:34:48. > :34:52.Brits. I don't feel I am in immigrants, this is where my roots
:34:53. > :34:57.are, my children are here, my family is here. And I have been here are
:34:58. > :35:01.very, very long time. This festival is also a reminder of something
:35:02. > :35:07.else. Even in the last decade, mass immigration did not only come from
:35:08. > :35:15.Eastern Europe. In fact, more than half came from outside the EU. The
:35:16. > :35:18.concern is here also, the British Social Attitudes Survey showed 60%
:35:19. > :35:23.of first and second generation immigrants want to see a cut in the
:35:24. > :35:29.numbers following them here. I don't think it is therefore the locals who
:35:30. > :35:35.have established themselves and are trying to set up as Mrs, trying to
:35:36. > :35:39.work, with somebody coming over from Eastern Europe or any part of the
:35:40. > :35:43.world and setting up a similar and rival business and undercutting
:35:44. > :35:51.them. And that is from my own business. The frustrating thing
:35:52. > :35:56.about it, our communities, our British-born cannot get jobs. The
:35:57. > :36:04.Eastern European communities can get the job. It is causing great
:36:05. > :36:10.faculties in Southampton. The worries here, as in many parts of
:36:11. > :36:26.Britain, are real. No wonder politicians feel they have two act.
:36:27. > :36:31.-- to act. After the huge flows of people in recent years after the
:36:32. > :36:36.mistakes and miscalculations, a promise from a politician was
:36:37. > :36:40.unlikely to convince voters immigration was finally coming under
:36:41. > :36:47.control. David Cameron came up with the idea of something more concrete,
:36:48. > :36:50.more tangible, more measurable. A target to cut net migration from
:36:51. > :36:58.hundreds of thousands a year to tens of thousands. A cut of well over a
:36:59. > :37:10.half. Easy to say, harder, as it turns out, to deliver. Here is one
:37:11. > :37:16.way they are trying to hit that target. These are the pictures the
:37:17. > :37:22.government wants you to see. A crackdown. A raid on rough sleepers
:37:23. > :37:24.in central London carried out by immigration officers looking for
:37:25. > :37:32.those here illegally who can be sent home. Hello, mate. We are
:37:33. > :37:39.immigration officers. What nationality are you? Slovakian. What
:37:40. > :37:45.is your name? Have you been in the UK long, Jack? If migrants have no
:37:46. > :37:51.prospect of income or work, they cannot stay wherever they come from.
:37:52. > :37:56.Until recently, seems like this were unthinkable. Officers left Eastern
:37:57. > :38:04.European is alone, but not now. Do you want to go back home? Now I
:38:05. > :38:09.don't. It is a raft of initiatives to reassure voters the rules are
:38:10. > :38:15.being implemented and tightened. But it is not enough to ensure the
:38:16. > :38:20.government gets net migration below it 100,000 target. The latest
:38:21. > :38:22.figures were not far off double that. How likely is it the
:38:23. > :38:28.government can meet its net migration target? That remains are
:38:29. > :38:34.aimed by the end of the Parliament. Can we meet it? My job is to look at
:38:35. > :38:39.every aspect of immigration and make sure we are making the changes we
:38:40. > :38:42.need to do. In reality aren't you saying to the country, if, maybe,
:38:43. > :38:49.perhaps? If we are lucky we might meet the target? I don't want to
:38:50. > :39:00.predict what we will do. That is my target and I want to get on with the
:39:01. > :39:05.job of working towards that target. The government's target is in
:39:06. > :39:09.truth, a funny sort of target. It includes all sorts of things
:39:10. > :39:14.ministers simply cannot control. First of all, people coming here
:39:15. > :39:21.from the EU. Anyone can come from any country, it is their legal white
:39:22. > :39:26.and our legal right to live where we choose. This target is for what is
:39:27. > :39:30.called net migration, the difference between two very big numbers. The
:39:31. > :39:38.number of people coming into the country and the number choosing to
:39:39. > :39:44.leave these shores. The bizarre thing, is that if people stop
:39:45. > :39:50.choosing to lose Britain, the figure for net migration goes up, the
:39:51. > :39:53.government misses its target. And with so much beyond the
:39:54. > :39:59.government's control, it is hardly surprising it is proving difficult
:40:00. > :40:04.to hit. Even some members of the Cabinet have little faith in it.
:40:05. > :40:09.Setting and arbitrate is not helpful. It will not achieve the
:40:10. > :40:12.below 100,000 level the Conservatives are setting anyway.
:40:13. > :40:18.The government's target is a nonsense then isn't it? I would not
:40:19. > :40:23.use the word nonsense, but the idea it should come down to 100,000 is
:40:24. > :40:28.something the Liberal Democrats have never signed up to because we know
:40:29. > :40:31.it isn't practical. Another truth about immigration politicians have
:40:32. > :40:38.kept to themselves, their scope for decisive action is limited. Given
:40:39. > :40:41.they cannot control everything, ministers end up looking for things
:40:42. > :40:48.they can target, and they often come with a catch. Take students from
:40:49. > :40:53.overseas, people coming here to study made up the biggest share of
:40:54. > :40:59.the immigration statistics until the recent crack down. Fewer overseas
:41:00. > :41:04.students equals less immigration, equals success. Or does it? Not if
:41:05. > :41:18.you are a top university like Southampton.
:41:19. > :41:27.A quarter of the students here are from overseas. They pay higher fees
:41:28. > :41:32.and British students, helping universities to cope with funding
:41:33. > :41:35.cuts. And they bring much-needed foreign cash into Britain, higher
:41:36. > :41:44.education is a great British exports. But the student Visa system
:41:45. > :41:49.was being abused by applications for bogus colleges. The reason for this
:41:50. > :41:55.interview is to ask questions about your student application. The
:41:56. > :42:00.government are trying to weed out people who are really coming here to
:42:01. > :42:07.work. Why did you decide to come to the UK to study? This centre opened
:42:08. > :42:12.last spring and has vetted about 100,000 applicants around the world.
:42:13. > :42:17.In theory, those pretending to be students are vetoed, real scholars
:42:18. > :42:23.are approved. What will you do at the end of your cause? I will come
:42:24. > :42:31.back to my country to look for a job. Schools and phantom colleges
:42:32. > :42:38.have closed. Over, applications study at further education colleges
:42:39. > :42:44.have almost halved. That is the end of the interview, so you are free to
:42:45. > :42:52.leave. But leading universities are worried. They fear the Visa crack
:42:53. > :42:57.down has sent out a disastrous message, that if you are a foreign
:42:58. > :43:03.students, Britain does not really want you. It is quite damaging and
:43:04. > :43:08.could have long-term reputational effects for the UK and higher
:43:09. > :43:16.education as a whole. Potential students are saying to you, we are
:43:17. > :43:19.not sure we welcome? Absolutely. It is beginning to feel like the
:43:20. > :43:25.British don't really want students there and we don't understand why.
:43:26. > :43:29.It is not just a problem for them and universities, it is a problem
:43:30. > :43:34.for you and me. Foreign students don't just come here to study, they
:43:35. > :43:39.often stay and create wealth, or go home and are a link with growing
:43:40. > :43:42.economies. The government's immigration clamp-down has led to
:43:43. > :43:48.applications plummeting from some of the world's powerhouses, like India.
:43:49. > :43:54.Thousands of Indians are not coming to Britain to study at university,
:43:55. > :43:59.who would be. They are going to France and America, is this bad for
:44:00. > :44:04.the British economy? The overall number of foreign students has gone
:44:05. > :44:08.up. We have all been saying universities are saying, we do want
:44:09. > :44:15.to see the brightest and the best coming here and students coming here
:44:16. > :44:18.genuinely to study. But as so often with immigration there are no simple
:44:19. > :44:22.answers. The downside of cracking down on the number of foreign
:44:23. > :44:28.students has pitted one minister against another. This is a type of
:44:29. > :44:32.immigration and is one of the largest categories of immigration is
:44:33. > :44:36.which is very good for the UK economy and indeed for universities
:44:37. > :44:40.in general. The fact there was a big drop in the number of Indian
:44:41. > :44:50.students is bad for Britain and the economy? Almost certainly so. The
:44:51. > :44:53.idea of stopping bogus students whilst only allowing in people who
:44:54. > :44:59.are serious about getting the qualification is the sort of idea
:45:00. > :45:04.most people would agree on over a coffee or their Saturday night
:45:05. > :45:06.curry. So to the idea of allowing those in with high skills or
:45:07. > :45:13.blocking those with low or no skills at all. It is popular, and sound
:45:14. > :45:24.easy enough, but in truth it is anything but, which takes us back to
:45:25. > :45:31.that curry. Meet the nation's curry king. Born in Bangladesh, this man
:45:32. > :45:36.is a man who loves Britain and has made it his life's work to persuade
:45:37. > :45:48.his adoptive homeland to love curry just as much. It's not vindaloo here
:45:49. > :45:53.washed down with a pint of lager. You call this British curry? Yes.
:45:54. > :45:57.Rather than Indian? Absolutely. It's British curry because of the way
:45:58. > :46:04.it's presented, the way all the process is done. It's regarded as a
:46:05. > :46:09.British kauRy. British cuisine. -- curry. British cuisine. He calls it
:46:10. > :46:13.British, but it's cooked by foreign shelves, who like him come from
:46:14. > :46:19.Bangladesh. There's a crisis simmering here and in the kitchens
:46:20. > :46:23.of the nation's curry houses. Under new immigration rules, work permits
:46:24. > :46:29.are only given to those classified as highly skilled, earning about
:46:30. > :46:38.?30,000 a year and who can speak English. In Bangladesh you apply for
:46:39. > :46:45.and advertise in the newspaper and you interview them and you apply
:46:46. > :46:50.them. Because? Because his English may be weak or the certificate is
:46:51. > :46:53.provided and it's not good. Does it matter whether chefs can speak
:46:54. > :46:58.English? Yes, that's what they're saying. Does it matter to you? No,
:46:59. > :47:02.because I'm looking for someone who can cook curry. I'm not looking for
:47:03. > :47:08.someone to come into the kitchen lecturing English. He's not above a
:47:09. > :47:13.bit of lecturing himself. He founded the British Curry Awards, the Oscars
:47:14. > :47:18.of this hot and spicy industry and yes, curry is an industry, with a
:47:19. > :47:28.turnover of ?4.5 billion a year and it employs 72,000 people. An
:47:29. > :47:34.industry under threat. Tory-supporting Enam tells his guest
:47:35. > :47:37.of honour. I look forward to working closely with the Government on the
:47:38. > :47:45.issue that affected our industry, the industry that we are celebrating
:47:46. > :47:49.tonight. I know there have been questions on immigration and getting
:47:50. > :47:54.chefs with the necessary experience. So, let me promise you think - we'll
:47:55. > :48:00.work through this together. We'll continue to help you to get the
:48:01. > :48:05.skilled Asian chefs that you need and we will also work with you to
:48:06. > :48:10.train up the next generation of home-grown chefs, backing pup... It
:48:11. > :48:14.may sound smoothing but the real message was blunt, stop relying on
:48:15. > :48:23.foreign chefs and train some born in Britain. But even in the shadow of
:48:24. > :48:29.Brick Lane, London's curry mile, it's clear that won't be easy. This
:48:30. > :48:32.is where thousands of Bangladeshis and other immigrants have settled,
:48:33. > :48:45.and where many struggle to find work. This centre helps young people
:48:46. > :48:51.into jobs, but few want to do what their parents often strife to
:48:52. > :48:55.escape. Working in the restaurant is degrading. If you work in a
:48:56. > :48:59.restaurant you get looked down on? From the community. Why? Because you
:49:00. > :49:05.can do more than working in the restaurant. Work ing in a restaurant
:49:06. > :49:10.seems like a low job? Yes. If my son was to say he works in a restaurant,
:49:11. > :49:15.regardless of how glamorous being a chef can be, it's frowned upon
:49:16. > :49:20.because you should be aiming for an accountancy job or law job or even
:49:21. > :49:26.things like the media, which isn't so common. It's not frowned upon,
:49:27. > :49:31.because it's got a title. If Brits don't want to learn to cook curry,
:49:32. > :49:35.either chefs' wages will go up and with them the price of your meal, or
:49:36. > :49:40.we may need more immigrants after all. This, though, is about much
:49:41. > :49:44.more than cooking. To get the best designers, programmers and
:49:45. > :49:47.scientists, we may need to bring in workers from all over the world, or
:49:48. > :49:52.should we listen to those worried about the imfact of immigration? We
:49:53. > :49:58.will be shooting ourselves in the foot if we actually restrict one of
:49:59. > :50:02.the main sources of growth, which is to allow migrants in, who are
:50:03. > :50:05.innovative and who bring skills that we haven't otherwise got. I can
:50:06. > :50:12.imagine someone listening to this and saying, "It's all right for
:50:13. > :50:17.you." They could say, "It's my child not getting a job or whose wages are
:50:18. > :50:20.depressed. It's all right for the establishment to tell me open the
:50:21. > :50:25.borders, but it's us that gets hurt." I would say what I want for
:50:26. > :50:32.your child is for your child to have a prosperous and good education and
:50:33. > :50:36.to come up and grow up in a society that creates great opportunities for
:50:37. > :50:42.them. We do need to be open. Yes, it will be more competitive, but that's
:50:43. > :50:51.the world we're in. You can't hide way from that. When it comes to
:50:52. > :50:56.debating immigration, economics has pretty much always trumped politics.
:50:57. > :51:00.The consensus here has been however anxious some people may get,
:51:01. > :51:05.immigration has made us all richer. The people who come here have tended
:51:06. > :51:12.to work hard and pay taxes and you know what, to claim rather less in
:51:13. > :51:16.benefits. Yet that idea is now coming under attack. Not just in
:51:17. > :51:22.Westminster, but in the country as a whole. As a result, there is a
:51:23. > :51:32.mighty struggle ensuing about which approach is right for Britain's
:51:33. > :51:39.future. Back at the New Forest Show, time to quiz the public. What price
:51:40. > :51:43.would they pay to cut immigration? Britain's official economic
:51:44. > :51:48.forecasters say less immigration means more cost for the rest of us.
:51:49. > :51:52.The Office for Budget Responsibility says if you cut immigration it will
:51:53. > :51:57.take us longer to pay the national debt off. If it meant higher taxes
:51:58. > :52:04.in order to cut immigration will you pay? I would pay, yes. You want to
:52:05. > :52:09.see a cut? Yes. You need to give me some money. Why do you feel all that
:52:10. > :52:17.strongly? I think it should have been curbed 30 years ago. Is the
:52:18. > :52:22.credit card easier? Now, this may be unscientific research, but one
:52:23. > :52:28.political leader echoes those views. Are you saying, "I accept, we could
:52:29. > :52:32.be poorer, but so be it." ? I don't want to live in a country who's
:52:33. > :52:36.population is heading to 75 million people. There are some things in a
:52:37. > :52:41.society and community that matter more than just money, quality of
:52:42. > :52:46.life, overcrowded Britain, lack of social housing. Youth unemployment.
:52:47. > :52:51.These are real issues. Almost certainly there would be an economic
:52:52. > :52:54.price to play if immigration controls were applied in very harsh
:52:55. > :52:59.ways. Of course, there would be control and you need to balance the
:53:00. > :53:04.social consequences, but we do need a certain kind of immigrants for the
:53:05. > :53:11.British economy. Many of the public simply don't accept that. According
:53:12. > :53:16.to the British social attitude survey, almost half of us think
:53:17. > :53:21.imbraGS is bad for the -- immigration is bad for the economy.
:53:22. > :53:25.That has dropped in recent years. Those who think it's good number
:53:26. > :53:33.31%. Even half of them still want to see immigration cut. Some
:53:34. > :53:39.politicians at Westminster have clocked that and they're changing
:53:40. > :53:42.tack. Both Labour and the Tories now argue immigration's good for some,
:53:43. > :53:46.but not for all. I think the problem in the past has been this general
:53:47. > :53:49.assumption that immigration was always good for the economy. I don't
:53:50. > :53:53.think people have looked at it sufficiently closely to be able to
:53:54. > :53:57.recognise the impact it has on members of the public. The real
:53:58. > :54:00.difference in our approach now is to say, look at the different impact
:54:01. > :54:05.and make sure that it's fair, because actually it hasn't been fair
:54:06. > :54:09.on the impact it's had on different parts of the population. But the
:54:10. > :54:14.economists insist that our leaders should be brave enough to tell us
:54:15. > :54:19.the brutal truth. Even if it does hurt some, immigration is good for
:54:20. > :54:23.most of us. Are you saying politicians need to be blunter with
:54:24. > :54:28.people and say, "You're right. You may have to cut your wages and you
:54:29. > :54:32.may even lose your job, but overall Britain's better off and you're
:54:33. > :54:37.going to have to live with that." ? I think that's correct. If we say
:54:38. > :54:40.that on average immigration makes us more prosperous then politicians do
:54:41. > :54:44.have to say to individuals who are negatively effected, and there will
:54:45. > :54:48.be some, "Yes, we are doing this for the good of the country and you may
:54:49. > :54:53.lose out, but ultimately we have to do this." Just as we said to the
:54:54. > :54:57.coal miners 30 years ago, "Sorry, we can get the coal cheaper abroad and
:54:58. > :55:02.can't afford to keep on propping you up." Broadly, I'm afraid, I think
:55:03. > :55:09.it's probably the riT thing to do. -- right thing to do. No matter
:55:10. > :55:15.where you look, there are stark chooses between hard-nose economics
:55:16. > :55:21.and the politics of listening to the public's worries. The latest
:55:22. > :55:25.battlefield is over EU immigration. Remember those fruit pickers in
:55:26. > :55:30.Kent? The Bulgarians and Romanians who filled the fields are now free
:55:31. > :55:34.to take any job, anywhere in Britain and to stay as long as they like.
:55:35. > :55:39.Their boss wants to be able to look elsewhere to replace them. In order
:55:40. > :55:44.to stay in business I need a core workforce that's going to turn up.
:55:45. > :55:48.If you're not getting them if Bulgaria and Romania, where will you
:55:49. > :55:53.get them from? We've had them from Belarus and Russia and the sort of
:55:54. > :55:59.countries around the fringes of the EU. But the Government's got other
:56:00. > :56:04.ideas. It's scrapping the scheme that gives work permits to foreign
:56:05. > :56:07.agricultural workers. Was more, David Cameron says he wants to cap
:56:08. > :56:12.the numbers who can come here from within the E. At the moment that
:56:13. > :56:17.would be illegal. The Government would have to persuade other
:56:18. > :56:23.countries to tear up one of the EU's founding principles. I think we need
:56:24. > :56:27.to look at the question of when new countries come in of what is right
:56:28. > :56:32.to say to them about when they can have full access to that free
:56:33. > :56:36.movement concept. If the rest of Europe says forget it, isn't it the
:56:37. > :56:41.case if there's no change in the rules of the EU, there's precious
:56:42. > :56:47.little you can do to control overall numbers and the E you gets bigger --
:56:48. > :56:52.EU gets bigger? I've been talking about this for three-and-a-half
:56:53. > :56:55.years since I've been Home Secretary and opposite numbers across the
:56:56. > :57:01.union are saying there's an issue and we need to do something about
:57:02. > :57:04.it. But any attempt to limit the number of immigrants coming from
:57:05. > :57:11.poorer countries could spell trouble for this business. I think what will
:57:12. > :57:15.happen in the UK, the very labour intensive horticultural jobs would
:57:16. > :57:21.probably go abroad. Simple, if you can't get new immigrants to work the
:57:22. > :57:26.fields, strawberries will be grown somewhere else? Yeah. Strawberries,
:57:27. > :57:31.curries, students, all pose difficult choices for policy makers.
:57:32. > :57:33.As pour Romanians and Bulgarians arrive here, the argument over
:57:34. > :57:44.immigration will only hot up. For years, in Britain, we have
:57:45. > :57:51.perhaps failed to properly discuss the downsides of people heading to
:57:52. > :58:01.our shores. Are we now in danger of ignore the upsides? The truth about
:58:02. > :58:04.immigration is that it's a debate that's scarcely been had. An
:58:05. > :58:08.argument that's been feared and a series of choices made largely in
:58:09. > :58:14.private. Few would now defend the huge increase in numbers, which has
:58:15. > :58:18.come in in the last few years. Few, though, would admit that there are
:58:19. > :58:23.real limits on the controls that any government can have, or to concede
:58:24. > :58:30.that there are costs as well as benefits. That's in trying to shut
:58:31. > :58:34.the door. Perhaps it's now time for that frank, honest and open
:58:35. > :58:36.discussion we've really never had.