0:00:05 > 0:00:10Theresa May is about to press the button on Brexit...
0:00:10 > 0:00:12and head off on a mission.
0:00:15 > 0:00:18The United Kingdom is leaving the European Union.
0:00:18 > 0:00:22And my job is to get the right deal for Britain as we do.
0:00:22 > 0:00:26I can't think of a more complex negotiation
0:00:26 > 0:00:29in modern diplomatic history.
0:00:32 > 0:00:36Outnumbered, facing 27 different countries.
0:00:36 > 0:00:37across the negotiating table.
0:00:39 > 0:00:42Don't believe that this is not going to hurt you - it will hurt you.
0:00:42 > 0:00:47And that's why it is such a stupid decision to take.
0:00:47 > 0:00:52For Brexiteers, the dream is a quickie divorce.
0:00:52 > 0:00:55I am genuinely optimistic, I really am.
0:00:55 > 0:00:58I think we should aim to put a bit of a tiger in the tank.
0:00:58 > 0:01:02ENGINE ROARS
0:01:02 > 0:01:04But there is political danger all around.
0:01:04 > 0:01:06From Westminster...
0:01:06 > 0:01:09If she doesn't deliver what they want, they will stab her in the back
0:01:09 > 0:01:14just as they did with Major, and, in effect, with DC, with Cameron.
0:01:14 > 0:01:17..to Scotland.
0:01:17 > 0:01:19I've, you know, been very clear. I think our
0:01:19 > 0:01:22second independence referendum is highly likely.
0:01:24 > 0:01:27The truth - no-one knows where this will end up.
0:01:29 > 0:01:33My anxiety is that the gain is very small
0:01:33 > 0:01:36and the pain is going to be very large.
0:01:36 > 0:01:41I think we should be confident, optimistic, pragmatic, open-minded.
0:01:45 > 0:01:50It sounds like a diplomatic mission from hell. A nightmare.
0:01:50 > 0:01:51I think it is!
0:01:51 > 0:01:54But it's one that the people have voted for,
0:01:54 > 0:01:56so it has to be carried out.
0:01:59 > 0:02:01When the Prime Minister packs her bags for Brussels,
0:02:01 > 0:02:04how hard is it going to be?
0:02:04 > 0:02:08Is she ready? Is the country ready to do the deal?
0:02:25 > 0:02:29I had a secret wish to make a joyful building.
0:02:31 > 0:02:34To make a building that would relax people coming in and, you know,
0:02:34 > 0:02:38this is a very limited but still a power in architect,
0:02:38 > 0:02:41is to influence the mood of people.
0:02:42 > 0:02:46Welcome to the brand-new HQ of the European Council,
0:02:46 > 0:02:48where Brussels' power lies.
0:02:52 > 0:02:56This is where the Brexit talks will take place.
0:02:58 > 0:03:02I hope that it will help people respect each other
0:03:02 > 0:03:05and to have joyful meetings.
0:03:05 > 0:03:08I want to give them a homely space,
0:03:08 > 0:03:14a space where their deep talents can be expressed, like poets.
0:03:17 > 0:03:20But Brexit might mean more stern words than poetry.
0:03:22 > 0:03:27This has got to be clear. I'm leaving you for good and all.
0:03:27 > 0:03:31Council, if you'll prepare a judgment of divorce in this matter.
0:03:31 > 0:03:33And you've got to divorce me.
0:03:35 > 0:03:37But divorce is messy.
0:03:37 > 0:03:40Breaking up is hard to do.
0:03:41 > 0:03:44Britain wants out of the EU,
0:03:44 > 0:03:49but we've been in for more than 40 years, with our countries,
0:03:49 > 0:03:51our systems becoming more and more tangled up with each other,
0:03:51 > 0:03:53more and more enmeshed.
0:03:53 > 0:03:58And we only have two years to hammer out a divorce deal.
0:03:58 > 0:04:01British ministers are also all too aware that with a series
0:04:01 > 0:04:04of elections right around the continent,
0:04:04 > 0:04:09it could be months before they get down to any serious talking.
0:04:09 > 0:04:13So, straightaway, the clock is ticking.
0:04:13 > 0:04:18This is the most complex divorce ever, in history.
0:04:18 > 0:04:22The number of assets and income streams and expenditures that have
0:04:22 > 0:04:24to be separated from each other,
0:04:24 > 0:04:27and I think people don't always realise that,
0:04:27 > 0:04:30that we have become, over more than 40 years,
0:04:30 > 0:04:33very integrated into the European Union,
0:04:33 > 0:04:37so no-one should underestimate the complexity of this task.
0:04:37 > 0:04:40There's no real precedent for this other than Greenland.
0:04:40 > 0:04:44Now, Greenland is part of Denmark, which has about 60,000 people,
0:04:44 > 0:04:47and decided to leave the European Union and, actually,
0:04:47 > 0:04:49the main industry in Greenland is fish.
0:04:49 > 0:04:53And it took three years for the negotiation to be completed.
0:04:53 > 0:04:55Now, in the case of the UK you're talking about
0:04:55 > 0:04:59the second-biggest economy in Europe, with 60 million people.
0:04:59 > 0:05:01So it is significantly a bigger challenge.
0:05:01 > 0:05:03And we've got a lot more to worry about than herring and cod.
0:05:03 > 0:05:06We've got a lot more than fish to deal with.
0:05:06 > 0:05:08It's going to be the mother of all divorces.
0:05:08 > 0:05:11Some people will do well - lawyers and accountants.
0:05:14 > 0:05:18The bean counters could have a field day.
0:05:19 > 0:05:22Because the EU is likely to try and make us pay.
0:05:22 > 0:05:26Money - a lot of money - is on the table.
0:05:26 > 0:05:30One of the first things the EU might well do is slap down a bill
0:05:30 > 0:05:34of as much as £50 billion for Britain to pay
0:05:34 > 0:05:36in order just to get out.
0:05:38 > 0:05:41That potentially massive bill is for Britain's share
0:05:41 > 0:05:44of existing EU spending commitments,
0:05:44 > 0:05:47like the pensions of EU officials.
0:05:49 > 0:05:51And if we don't pay,
0:05:51 > 0:05:53the other countries will have to stump up.
0:05:56 > 0:06:00There are some liabilities there.
0:06:00 > 0:06:03It will be very hard to settle what they are, and of course,
0:06:03 > 0:06:04whenever you get into money,
0:06:04 > 0:06:06as in any negotiation in life,
0:06:06 > 0:06:11that is one of the most vexing and controversial things.
0:06:11 > 0:06:15Given the sensitivity in the UK to being, for many years,
0:06:15 > 0:06:19the second-biggest contributor into the EU budget and then the anger
0:06:19 > 0:06:23that was felt by people about that in the referendum campaign,
0:06:23 > 0:06:26any such question will be extremely sensitive.
0:06:28 > 0:06:30But hang on - remember this?
0:06:30 > 0:06:35We can take back control of £350 million a week!
0:06:37 > 0:06:41Wasn't the campaign based on getting money BACK from Brussels?
0:06:44 > 0:06:48What would WE all make of an exit bill?
0:06:49 > 0:06:53So we have a cheque here for 50 billion to the European Union
0:06:53 > 0:06:57that UK taxpayers might have to pay to the rest of the EU to get out.
0:06:57 > 0:06:59- We've been lied to. - Is that what you feel?- Yeah.
0:06:59 > 0:07:01I don't think anybody was explained to enough
0:07:01 > 0:07:04what was actually going to happen.
0:07:04 > 0:07:08Can't believe it. People had heard about that before, surely.
0:07:08 > 0:07:11Cheap at the price. To get out of Brexit, yes.
0:07:15 > 0:07:17Who are we going to pay the money to?
0:07:17 > 0:07:20- The European Commission in Brussels...- Exactly. Well, sod 'em.
0:07:20 > 0:07:23- Sod 'em?- Yes. And Gomorrah.
0:07:23 > 0:07:24- LAURA LAUGHS - All right?
0:07:24 > 0:07:28We should never, ever have given us a referendum.
0:07:28 > 0:07:32None of us are educated enough to vote on something so serious.
0:07:32 > 0:07:36We just need to be tough. Same as any business deal.
0:07:36 > 0:07:40I voted Out, so it's all my fault, I apologise.
0:07:40 > 0:07:42THEY LAUGH
0:07:49 > 0:07:52You were the chair of the Vote Leave campaign,
0:07:52 > 0:07:54you gave people a sense of expectation we were going to
0:07:54 > 0:07:56get money back.
0:07:56 > 0:07:59Won't it be rather embarrassing for you if instead we end up
0:07:59 > 0:08:02being asked to shell out to get out of the thing?
0:08:02 > 0:08:04We will get money back. There's always a chance.
0:08:04 > 0:08:09Always a...uh, potential that we'll pay a one-off leaving fee.
0:08:09 > 0:08:12But that one-off fee having been paid,
0:08:12 > 0:08:16what will happen is that for years to come, money that we would
0:08:16 > 0:08:19have given the European Union we'll now be able to spend ourselves.
0:08:19 > 0:08:22But if we have to pay a one-off fee of some billions,
0:08:22 > 0:08:26won't some voters who were persuaded by your arguments have every right
0:08:26 > 0:08:28to feel pretty cross with you?
0:08:28 > 0:08:32Well, I think that we won't be paying the enormous sums that
0:08:32 > 0:08:37have been talked of. In fact, in my view, we should actually
0:08:37 > 0:08:38be due a rebate.
0:08:38 > 0:08:41But we will see what happens in those negotiations.
0:08:41 > 0:08:43What does the British Government say if Michel Barnier,
0:08:43 > 0:08:46the lead negotiator, slaps down a bill for £50 billion?
0:08:46 > 0:08:48I think, uh...
0:08:48 > 0:08:53I think we have, uh...illustrious precedent in this matter.
0:08:53 > 0:08:57You will doubtless recall the 1984 Fontainebleau summit in which
0:08:57 > 0:09:00Mrs Thatcher said she wanted her money back,
0:09:00 > 0:09:03and I think that is exactly what we will get.
0:09:03 > 0:09:05That we will say no, that is what you're saying.
0:09:05 > 0:09:11It is not reasonable, I don't think, for the UK, having left the EU,
0:09:11 > 0:09:15to continue to make vast budget payments.
0:09:15 > 0:09:20I think everybody understands that and that's the reality.
0:09:20 > 0:09:25I can't see at this moment in time the constructive approach
0:09:25 > 0:09:30on either side, how do we make the best of this, you know?
0:09:30 > 0:09:33This is very much now a fight.
0:09:36 > 0:09:39Are we hurtling along on a collision course?
0:09:39 > 0:09:42If the EU tries to insist the cash is agreed up front...
0:09:45 > 0:09:50..could the whole deal be derailed before it's even begun?
0:09:50 > 0:09:55I believe it will be a very tough negotiation and it could very well
0:09:55 > 0:09:58be that after a couple of weeks, everything breaks down because there
0:09:58 > 0:10:03is no agreement on the principal itself of a cheque to be paid.
0:10:03 > 0:10:07I think the EU will indeed deliver that bill and I'll tell you
0:10:07 > 0:10:09what I think will happen.
0:10:09 > 0:10:13In that event, part of the media will whip up even more
0:10:13 > 0:10:19a storm of anti-EU feeling and so even more people will come to
0:10:19 > 0:10:22the conclusion the sooner we are rid of this ghastly bunch of people,
0:10:22 > 0:10:28the better. And that will drive the cliff-edge scenario.
0:10:28 > 0:10:31"Because they're unreasonable, you can't do business with them,"
0:10:31 > 0:10:34it'll be whipped up. "And you can't get a deal..."
0:10:34 > 0:10:37And the sooner we're out, the better.
0:10:39 > 0:10:44But as everyone knows, divorce isn't only about cold, hard cash.
0:10:45 > 0:10:49Even if the money is settled, the deal means
0:10:49 > 0:10:54disentangling ourselves from the hidden ways we're bound together.
0:10:54 > 0:10:57The EU and the UK have been intertwined for more
0:10:57 > 0:11:02than 40 years, and that will take a lot of unravelling.
0:11:02 > 0:11:08If you like, you could picture it as a huge Jenga tower and the task here
0:11:08 > 0:11:13is to remove or replace the elements that connect to the EU
0:11:13 > 0:11:18without having the whole fall apart.
0:11:18 > 0:11:22It's going to require a lot of concentration, a lot of skill,
0:11:22 > 0:11:25and it's going to need a real appreciation
0:11:25 > 0:11:28of how the two interconnect.
0:11:31 > 0:11:35Since 1973, much in our daily lives
0:11:35 > 0:11:38has been governed by EU law.
0:11:40 > 0:11:42The quality of the water we drink...
0:11:45 > 0:11:48..the farms where our food is grown.
0:11:50 > 0:11:52And what happens to the law?
0:11:52 > 0:11:55All the rules and regulation - it all has to be worked out
0:11:55 > 0:11:57in a two-year deadline.
0:11:59 > 0:12:02One good example is the European Medicines Agency...
0:12:04 > 0:12:07..which supervises the safety standards for all medicines
0:12:07 > 0:12:09that are available within the EU.
0:12:09 > 0:12:12I'm going to give you something new that we use with good results.
0:12:12 > 0:12:14You'll be all right in a few days.
0:12:14 > 0:12:16Once UK has left the EU,
0:12:16 > 0:12:20there will need to be something in place of that
0:12:20 > 0:12:24to make sure that the products available in the UK
0:12:24 > 0:12:26meet requisite standards.
0:12:31 > 0:12:35Even the way we do our air traffic control is now on an EU basis,
0:12:35 > 0:12:39you have to separate that out so that you know when aircraft
0:12:39 > 0:12:44can land, where people can fish, how farm subsidies are paid,
0:12:44 > 0:12:48and you could imagine talking for months about each of them.
0:12:48 > 0:12:51It sounds like a diplomatic mission from hell.
0:12:51 > 0:12:54- A nightmare.- I think it is!
0:12:54 > 0:12:57But it's one that the people have voted for,
0:12:57 > 0:12:58so it has to be carried out.
0:13:02 > 0:13:04Our skies right now are governed by the EU,
0:13:04 > 0:13:08with a myriad of European legislation.
0:13:12 > 0:13:14It's in both sides' interests to sort it out,
0:13:14 > 0:13:18but it will take a lot of officials a lot of time.
0:13:21 > 0:13:24It's the sheer scale that will be so difficult to manage,
0:13:24 > 0:13:28because there may be some tasks that in themselves are not
0:13:28 > 0:13:33particularly difficult, but when you add it to the huge to-do list
0:13:33 > 0:13:37that the Government will have, to make sure that Brexit runs smoothly,
0:13:37 > 0:13:40then it becomes in itself a real challenge.
0:13:44 > 0:13:47The lights in Whitehall are burning later than usual,
0:13:47 > 0:13:49with two new departments to cope.
0:13:51 > 0:13:55Government lawyers are right now trawling through thousands of pieces
0:13:55 > 0:13:58of legislation to work out what's next.
0:14:01 > 0:14:04Enough to make even the most brilliant minds boggle.
0:14:04 > 0:14:08I deal with tough mathematical questions every day
0:14:08 > 0:14:12but please don't ask me to help with Brexit.
0:14:12 > 0:14:14LAUGHTER
0:14:20 > 0:14:24Remember, Theresa May doesn't just have to sort out the money
0:14:24 > 0:14:26and, well, the whole legal system...
0:14:28 > 0:14:30..but the hardest thing of all is how do we do
0:14:30 > 0:14:31business with Europe in the future?
0:14:34 > 0:14:37And for months, she dodged the question.
0:14:37 > 0:14:43Brexit means Brexit and we're going to make a success of it.
0:14:43 > 0:14:46People talk about the sort of Brexit that there is going to be -
0:14:46 > 0:14:48is it hard, soft, grey, white?
0:14:48 > 0:14:50Actually, we want a red, white and blue Brexit.
0:14:50 > 0:14:54That is the right Brexit for the United Kingdom.
0:14:54 > 0:14:58Are we going to get a detailed plan, Prime Minister?
0:15:01 > 0:15:03Finally, in January,
0:15:03 > 0:15:07she laid out her vision of what the referendum result really meant,
0:15:07 > 0:15:11and what kind of deal that would entail.
0:15:11 > 0:15:14The United Kingdom is leaving the European Union
0:15:14 > 0:15:18and my job is to get the right deal for Britain as we do.
0:15:18 > 0:15:21But the message from the public before and during
0:15:21 > 0:15:24the referendum campaign was clear -
0:15:24 > 0:15:28Brexit must mean control of the number of people who come to Britain
0:15:28 > 0:15:32from Europe, and that is what we will deliver.
0:15:32 > 0:15:36Gaining control over our borders and our laws
0:15:36 > 0:15:39meant losing something else.
0:15:39 > 0:15:42We want to buy your goods and services, sell you ours,
0:15:42 > 0:15:45trade with you as freely as possible.
0:15:45 > 0:15:47But I want to be clear.
0:15:47 > 0:15:52What I am proposing cannot mean membership of the single market.
0:15:56 > 0:16:00In one phrase, undoing nearly three decades of British history.
0:16:03 > 0:16:06Since 1992, we've done business in Europe
0:16:06 > 0:16:08largely without tariffs or barriers,
0:16:08 > 0:16:12in the single market. Remember who used to think it was a good idea?
0:16:12 > 0:16:18The combination of the single market in 1992 and the Channel Tunnel
0:16:18 > 0:16:25in 1993 is going to make a historic difference to the future of
0:16:25 > 0:16:30the whole of Europe and its place in the world and our place in Europe.
0:16:31 > 0:16:33For many big British businesses,
0:16:33 > 0:16:36the single market has been hugely beneficial.
0:16:38 > 0:16:42We are walking away from the biggest trade partnership that exists.
0:16:42 > 0:16:46- Will you admit there will be losers as well as winners?- No, because...
0:16:46 > 0:16:49We cannot get a deal that is going to be as good as our
0:16:49 > 0:16:51current relationships inside the single market.
0:16:51 > 0:16:54Well, with great respect, I think it'll be considerably better.
0:16:54 > 0:16:58I don't want to pretend that there won't be difficult questions,
0:16:58 > 0:17:01because there will be challenges.
0:17:01 > 0:17:04By the way, I don't want to pretend that this country doesn't
0:17:04 > 0:17:07have economic challenges.
0:17:07 > 0:17:09Of course we have challenges.
0:17:09 > 0:17:11But we can meet all those challenges,
0:17:11 > 0:17:13and I think the Government is setting out
0:17:13 > 0:17:15a very positive programme for doing so.
0:17:15 > 0:17:18And we can do a great free-trade deal with our partners.
0:17:22 > 0:17:27So, what would a free-trade deal with the EU look like?
0:17:27 > 0:17:30If you have a look at a free-trade agreement -
0:17:30 > 0:17:33although I wouldn't necessarily wish it on anybody -
0:17:33 > 0:17:37you'll see at the back of the agreement there are schedules,
0:17:37 > 0:17:41and the schedules have, in minute detail, every different sort
0:17:41 > 0:17:45of product in every different form that that product might come in.
0:17:45 > 0:17:49And there is detail as to what tariff will apply in that case,
0:17:49 > 0:17:54and it's line by line for literally hundreds, thousands of pages.
0:17:58 > 0:18:01So, Theresa May has set herself a huge task.
0:18:02 > 0:18:08Any new trade deal will require the agreement of 27 other nations
0:18:08 > 0:18:13and to be approved by 38 different national and regional parliaments.
0:18:17 > 0:18:22But Britain is isolated. In Brussels, it didn't start well.
0:18:24 > 0:18:30The brutal truth is that Brexit will be a loss for all of us.
0:18:30 > 0:18:33There will be no cakes on the table,
0:18:33 > 0:18:35for anyone.
0:18:35 > 0:18:39There will be only salt and vinegar.
0:18:39 > 0:18:41IN FRENCH:
0:18:46 > 0:18:49The mood is a little bit like you're having a divorce, you know?
0:18:49 > 0:18:52They feel betrayed, this is not proper,
0:18:52 > 0:18:55you know - that's the mood in Brussels at this moment in time.
0:18:55 > 0:18:58And nobody's showing any flexibility.
0:18:59 > 0:19:01She knows Europe's leaders feel
0:19:01 > 0:19:04the survival of their union is at stake.
0:19:04 > 0:19:09They fear good a deal for us would tempt others to leave.
0:19:09 > 0:19:14I hope the Continental EU 27 negotiations will do everything
0:19:14 > 0:19:18in their power to make it a friendly process - although it's going
0:19:18 > 0:19:20to be very difficult.
0:19:20 > 0:19:25But I think those who imagine that Britain will be able to dictate
0:19:25 > 0:19:29to the rest of the European Union will be disappointed
0:19:29 > 0:19:32and they might find it humiliating.
0:19:41 > 0:19:44The strategy in Brussels is clear -
0:19:44 > 0:19:48for every single one of the 27 EU member states, apart from Britain,
0:19:48 > 0:19:51to stick together along with the European Council
0:19:51 > 0:19:54and the European Commission.
0:19:54 > 0:19:58But Britain knows they all have some different interests
0:19:58 > 0:20:04and some different agendas, so the British strategy - pick them off.
0:20:04 > 0:20:06Divide and conquer.
0:20:11 > 0:20:15That means working not just with national governments,
0:20:15 > 0:20:18but powerful groups inside their countries, too -
0:20:18 > 0:20:21and using them to apply pressure for a deal.
0:20:26 > 0:20:28Our fancy tastes might help.
0:20:31 > 0:20:32We drink more Prosecco from Italy
0:20:32 > 0:20:36and more Champagne from France than anyone else.
0:20:38 > 0:20:40Surely the EU won't want tariffs on those?
0:20:44 > 0:20:46Even more importantly,
0:20:46 > 0:20:50Britain is the biggest export market for Germany's mighty car industry.
0:20:52 > 0:20:55The UK needs to identify very quickly every single nation's
0:20:55 > 0:20:57real stake in this game.
0:20:57 > 0:21:01And the number one thing that politicians react to...
0:21:01 > 0:21:03is jobs.
0:21:03 > 0:21:06What happens when that million car workers in Bavaria,
0:21:06 > 0:21:09whose jobs rely on British exports,
0:21:09 > 0:21:13that's one million people who are in work because they sell
0:21:13 > 0:21:15a large number of cars to the UK,
0:21:15 > 0:21:17what happens when they start saying, "Hang on a second,
0:21:17 > 0:21:22"are you saying that my job will go because you will refuse
0:21:22 > 0:21:25"to have an arrangement with the United Kingdom because you think,
0:21:25 > 0:21:27"for political purposes, that's best?"
0:21:27 > 0:21:30We should be talking and will be talking to the very people
0:21:30 > 0:21:35that make things and get people jobs and they pay their taxes,
0:21:35 > 0:21:37because that's where politics really sits.
0:21:42 > 0:21:45And then there's the City of London.
0:21:46 > 0:21:49Britain has one of the most highly developed
0:21:49 > 0:21:52banking and financial systems in the world.
0:21:52 > 0:21:54The UK will also try to persuade the EU that
0:21:54 > 0:21:56it's in everyone's interests
0:21:56 > 0:21:59to give London's massive financial services industry
0:21:59 > 0:22:01a special status in any deal.
0:22:03 > 0:22:05I'm quite clear, I'm pragmatic.
0:22:05 > 0:22:08I'm trying to work with the Government to ensure,
0:22:08 > 0:22:11when it comes to them doing a deal with the European Union,
0:22:11 > 0:22:13it doesn't make us poorer.
0:22:13 > 0:22:16That means, for example, recognising the importance
0:22:16 > 0:22:18of privileged access to a single market.
0:22:18 > 0:22:21That means recognising the importance
0:22:21 > 0:22:22of our ability to attract talent.
0:22:22 > 0:22:26I think the reality of a so-called hard Brexit is we would lose,
0:22:26 > 0:22:29so would the EU because the jobs that would leave London
0:22:29 > 0:22:32wouldn't go to Paris, Madrid, Brussels, Frankfurt.
0:22:32 > 0:22:35They'd go to Singapore, Hong Kong or New York.
0:22:35 > 0:22:38A so-called hard Brexit means we lose as a city,
0:22:38 > 0:22:41our country loses, but so does Europe.
0:22:41 > 0:22:43It's certainly the case that if the current negotiators on behalf
0:22:43 > 0:22:47of the European Union try to penalise the City of London,
0:22:47 > 0:22:51they would actually be penalising themselves, because the depth
0:22:51 > 0:22:53and breadth of the capital market that is the City of London
0:22:53 > 0:22:55helps sustain European industries.
0:22:55 > 0:22:57So, we should ignore sabre-rattling
0:22:57 > 0:22:59from European capitals at the moment, should we?
0:22:59 > 0:23:04I think we should be confident, optimistic, pragmatic, open-minded.
0:23:04 > 0:23:06Aren't you gambling
0:23:06 > 0:23:11that the European Union will put economics ahead of politics?
0:23:11 > 0:23:13I mean, when has the European Union
0:23:13 > 0:23:16EVER put economics ahead of politics?
0:23:16 > 0:23:23Well, the answer to that is that I think the EU leaders
0:23:23 > 0:23:26will be very responsive to their electorates
0:23:26 > 0:23:29and to their business communities,
0:23:29 > 0:23:35who can see the advantage of striking a deal with the UK,
0:23:35 > 0:23:40where you have a strong EU supported by a strong, independent UK,
0:23:40 > 0:23:43but where you maximise trade between them.
0:23:43 > 0:23:46I know there is the view in the UK with many
0:23:46 > 0:23:50that economics ultimately trumps politics.
0:23:51 > 0:23:55I wouldn't rely too much on that.
0:23:57 > 0:23:59Britain, on the 23rd of June,
0:23:59 > 0:24:04the economic argument for staying was overwhelming,
0:24:04 > 0:24:10and yet it was the political set of arguments, however disorderly,
0:24:10 > 0:24:14which trumped the rather clear economic arguments.
0:24:17 > 0:24:20And a key ally of Angela Merkel warns we cannot
0:24:20 > 0:24:23have it all our own way.
0:24:24 > 0:24:27Cherry-picking - that cannot really be an option.
0:24:27 > 0:24:32A state which isn't a member of the European Union and which isn't
0:24:32 > 0:24:35a member of a single market can't be better off
0:24:35 > 0:24:41than a member state of the European Union, so whatever the new relation,
0:24:41 > 0:24:45the new agreement between the European Union and the UK will be,
0:24:45 > 0:24:48it will have to be less
0:24:48 > 0:24:51than the current EU membership of the European Union.
0:24:53 > 0:24:57But the real Brexit enthusiasts believe the costs of leaving
0:24:57 > 0:25:00will be swept away by the trading opportunities
0:25:00 > 0:25:04with the rest of the world.
0:25:04 > 0:25:07You've then got the FTAs, the free-trade agreements
0:25:07 > 0:25:10with the rest of the world, that we will now be able to do.
0:25:10 > 0:25:13We've got an embarrassment of choice,
0:25:13 > 0:25:16because a lot of people want to do a free-trade deal,
0:25:16 > 0:25:21and so the task will be "How do we prioritise?"
0:25:21 > 0:25:25If you look at other countries which have been outside the single market,
0:25:25 > 0:25:28they've managed to secure for themselves not just trade deals
0:25:28 > 0:25:30worth far more than the European Union
0:25:30 > 0:25:32has been capable of negotiating for itself,
0:25:32 > 0:25:34they've also been able to pursue economic policies
0:25:34 > 0:25:37which have fostered growth, creativity and innovation.
0:25:43 > 0:25:45Before any new deals can happen,
0:25:45 > 0:25:49we have to tie up the arrangements with the European Union.
0:25:53 > 0:25:57And it's even more daunting, because there's a deadline.
0:25:57 > 0:26:00Can we really move that fast?
0:26:01 > 0:26:05How long do you think it will actually take?
0:26:05 > 0:26:09The average accession negotiation to join the EU, for example,
0:26:09 > 0:26:12is about seven years, and if you look at the negotiation
0:26:12 > 0:26:16of the trade agreement between the European Union and Canada,
0:26:16 > 0:26:18that took about seven years to negotiate.
0:26:18 > 0:26:22So, I think the quickest one the EU has ever agreed
0:26:22 > 0:26:24has been within a period of about four years.
0:26:24 > 0:26:27Typically, 8-11 years is not uncommon
0:26:27 > 0:26:29for negotiating a trade deal.
0:26:32 > 0:26:34But couldn't we just put our foot down?
0:26:39 > 0:26:43Lawrence Tomlinson owns a string of businesses, including Ginetta cars.
0:26:43 > 0:26:46He's a man used to doing deals.
0:26:49 > 0:26:52You might just remember him from the referendum campaign.
0:26:58 > 0:27:01Well, actually, Boris took me out for a spin to start with,
0:27:01 > 0:27:03which was quite disconcerting, but I was really surprised,
0:27:03 > 0:27:05he drove it very well and then we brought him back
0:27:05 > 0:27:07and we did a few doughnuts and it seemed
0:27:07 > 0:27:10to catch the imagination of the campaign.
0:27:10 > 0:27:12And now around here, you call it the Borismobile.
0:27:12 > 0:27:14We do, we call this old girl the Borismobile.
0:27:14 > 0:27:16- CAMERAS CLICK - We're taking back control.
0:27:16 > 0:27:18LAUGHTER
0:27:18 > 0:27:21In terms of the length of time it's going to take,
0:27:21 > 0:27:23some people say this might take as long as a decade,
0:27:23 > 0:27:27it's going to be very complicated and that delay
0:27:27 > 0:27:31is going to mean uncertainty and that can be really damaging.
0:27:31 > 0:27:33I think the Government will just plough straight on.
0:27:33 > 0:27:35I mean, it's just utter bollocks that it should take ten years.
0:27:35 > 0:27:39- Why?- Well, World War II took just over five years and, in fact,
0:27:39 > 0:27:42I think it shows the reasons why we should leave, you know,
0:27:42 > 0:27:45that things like this could perceivably take ten years.
0:27:45 > 0:27:48It's ridiculous, so let's get on,
0:27:48 > 0:27:51let's get a nice, clean hard Brexit and let's dictate it.
0:27:51 > 0:27:54MUSIC: Take Me Out by Franz Ferdinand
0:28:00 > 0:28:03That's it, more gas.
0:28:03 > 0:28:05SHE YELPS
0:28:05 > 0:28:08'The Government wants to get cracking.
0:28:08 > 0:28:10'They've set themselves a target
0:28:10 > 0:28:13'of negotiating a new trade deal in two years...'
0:28:18 > 0:28:20We did it!
0:28:20 > 0:28:22'..on top of all that tricky divorce.'
0:28:22 > 0:28:23SHE LAUGHS AND SIGHS
0:28:25 > 0:28:28Every European diplomat, pretty much every expert,
0:28:28 > 0:28:30is very cynical about this being done within two years.
0:28:30 > 0:28:32Why are you sure it can be done?
0:28:32 > 0:28:34Well, it certainly can be done in two years
0:28:34 > 0:28:36and there's no reason why it shouldn't be.
0:28:36 > 0:28:40I think we should aim to put a bit of a tiger in the tank.
0:28:40 > 0:28:45As I say, the deal with the EU, that negotiation, I think,
0:28:45 > 0:28:50should be fairly straightforward because we are in line
0:28:50 > 0:28:53with the rest of the EU when it comes to our standards
0:28:53 > 0:28:56and our trade arrangements.
0:28:56 > 0:28:59We just need to perpetuate that agreement.
0:28:59 > 0:29:03What do you say to many supporters of leaving the EU who say,
0:29:03 > 0:29:05"Look, we could do this another way.
0:29:05 > 0:29:08"We could just repeal the act, we could just walk out.
0:29:08 > 0:29:10"It could all be done in a couple of years"?
0:29:10 > 0:29:12My answer to that is you could do that,
0:29:12 > 0:29:14but you need to think about what you're left with,
0:29:14 > 0:29:16and if you're left with not a very good relationship
0:29:16 > 0:29:19with other European countries and no clarity
0:29:19 > 0:29:23about the future arrangements in our biggest market because, after all,
0:29:23 > 0:29:26almost half of our trade is with the European Union,
0:29:26 > 0:29:29then I don't think that's a very satisfactory position to end up in.
0:29:29 > 0:29:31So, it's a kind of crash and burn.
0:29:31 > 0:29:34You could do it fast, but we'd burn ourselves on the way out.
0:29:34 > 0:29:35So, you could do a quick deal.
0:29:35 > 0:29:38The question is, "Could you do a good quick deal?"
0:29:50 > 0:29:55Everybody agrees that getting it done in record time is a challenge
0:29:55 > 0:29:57of historic proportions.
0:30:00 > 0:30:02This is Down Street Station,
0:30:02 > 0:30:06hundreds of feet below the posh streets of London's Mayfair
0:30:06 > 0:30:07and, during World War II,
0:30:07 > 0:30:11the Government used to come down here for secret meetings.
0:30:11 > 0:30:14Churchill used to spend time in these warrens,
0:30:14 > 0:30:16trying to decide what to do in the war.
0:30:18 > 0:30:20There's a bath!
0:30:23 > 0:30:26Some people compare it to the biggest job for any leader
0:30:26 > 0:30:30since the Second World War.
0:30:30 > 0:30:34For you, is it right to compare this to a challenge
0:30:34 > 0:30:36as great as the Second World War?
0:30:36 > 0:30:39In its complexity, it is right to compare it.
0:30:39 > 0:30:44This is nothing like as grave a challenge as the Second World War.
0:30:44 > 0:30:47It's not even the gravest moment since the Second World War,
0:30:47 > 0:30:50but it is the most complex. That is certainly true.
0:30:50 > 0:30:55I don't think ever before has a government had to negotiate
0:30:55 > 0:31:02over so many subjects with such a complex set of negotiating partners
0:31:02 > 0:31:08on the other side and so many competing demands on their own side.
0:31:08 > 0:31:10I can't think of any parallel to that
0:31:10 > 0:31:12for any British Government in history.
0:31:16 > 0:31:21Are ministers being straight with us about how hard it might be?
0:31:21 > 0:31:24One former Prime Minister doesn't think so.
0:31:26 > 0:31:29I've watched with growing concern as the British people have been
0:31:29 > 0:31:35led to expect a future that seems to be unreal and over-optimistic.
0:31:35 > 0:31:39Obstacles are brushed aside as if of no consequence,
0:31:39 > 0:31:44whilst opportunities are inflated beyond any reasonable expectation.
0:31:44 > 0:31:47My own experience of international negotiations
0:31:47 > 0:31:52makes me doubt the rosy confidence being offered to the British people.
0:31:52 > 0:31:55Should you not just level with people
0:31:55 > 0:31:57and manage their expectations?
0:31:57 > 0:31:59Because it's one thing saying, "It might be a bit difficult,
0:31:59 > 0:32:02"there might be some bumps in the road," but there are millions
0:32:02 > 0:32:05of people who are worried about what might happen here.
0:32:05 > 0:32:08It's very important to understand that...
0:32:08 > 0:32:10I mean, I am genuinely optimistic. I really am.
0:32:10 > 0:32:12I think it's a fantastically exciting moment.
0:32:12 > 0:32:15I think we're going to do brilliantly well,
0:32:15 > 0:32:21but it's also important, at the outset of any negotiation,
0:32:21 > 0:32:25not to go into it with a sort of Eeyore-ish hesitancy
0:32:25 > 0:32:27about how things are going to turn out,
0:32:27 > 0:32:32but to recognise and to communicate to our friends and partners
0:32:32 > 0:32:34that this is going to be good for both of us.
0:32:34 > 0:32:37But, just as you suggest, Eeyore might have been a bit gloomy,
0:32:37 > 0:32:39Tigger might have been a bit naive.
0:32:39 > 0:32:43All of us who are working on this - Liam Fox, the Prime Minister -
0:32:43 > 0:32:47we all understand there are challenges and there are problems.
0:32:47 > 0:32:49None of them, individually,
0:32:49 > 0:32:52is by any means an insoluble problem
0:32:52 > 0:32:58and there are ways of taking advantage of the position we're in,
0:32:58 > 0:33:00which will be greatly to the benefit
0:33:00 > 0:33:05of the UK economy, UK consumers and people in this country.
0:33:09 > 0:33:14This is Theresa May's deal - can she get it done?
0:33:16 > 0:33:20She has a wafer-thin majority, but, so far,
0:33:20 > 0:33:22she seems pretty much unstoppable.
0:33:26 > 0:33:29Her bill to trigger Article 50 and start the Brexit process
0:33:29 > 0:33:32passed through the Commons easily.
0:33:32 > 0:33:36The ayes to the right - 498.
0:33:36 > 0:33:39The nos to the left - 114.
0:33:39 > 0:33:41CHEERING
0:33:41 > 0:33:45It certainly felt historic, but I was also conscious
0:33:45 > 0:33:48that, in a way, this was the easy part.
0:33:48 > 0:33:52It was easy to make the case in the House of Commons
0:33:52 > 0:33:56that we should honour the referendum and respect the result.
0:33:56 > 0:33:59The difficult part is making the individual decisions
0:33:59 > 0:34:02that will ensure that Britain is in a stronger position in the future,
0:34:02 > 0:34:06but there are going to be inevitably difficult days ahead.
0:34:09 > 0:34:13What there hasn't been - yet - is intense political pressure.
0:34:13 > 0:34:16The referendum turned everything upside down.
0:34:17 > 0:34:22Mr Speaker, it's not so much the Iron Lady as the Irony Lady.
0:34:24 > 0:34:27I've got a plan. He doesn't have a clue.
0:34:29 > 0:34:33It's left Labour divided and confused.
0:34:33 > 0:34:37Do you think we are potentially at the start
0:34:37 > 0:34:41of a really fundamental reshaping of British politics?
0:34:41 > 0:34:43I just don't think you can tell, at the moment.
0:34:43 > 0:34:47I mean, what is clear to me is that if the choice is between
0:34:47 > 0:34:50a sort of hard-Brexit Tory Party and a hard-Left Labour Party,
0:34:50 > 0:34:53there will be millions of people who feel politically homeless.
0:34:53 > 0:34:56The fact, at this moment in time with this issue of Brexit,
0:34:56 > 0:35:00that you don't have an opposition capable -
0:35:00 > 0:35:04or looking as if it's capable - of winning, is a problem.
0:35:04 > 0:35:06I mean, that is a problem for our democracy.
0:35:06 > 0:35:10Brexit has clearly been difficult for the Labour Party,
0:35:10 > 0:35:12but I do think the worst is over
0:35:12 > 0:35:15and now we can hold the Government to account
0:35:15 > 0:35:17in a much more united way.
0:35:17 > 0:35:20The difficulty for us as a pro-European party was
0:35:20 > 0:35:23whether to give the Prime Minister permission to start the process.
0:35:23 > 0:35:26Now, we'll hold her to account every step of the way.
0:35:28 > 0:35:32But one party has sees an opportunity in crisis.
0:35:35 > 0:35:37Hiya, King's Cross, please.
0:35:37 > 0:35:40Tim Farron is the Liberal Democrat leader.
0:35:40 > 0:35:43And he's calling for a second referendum,
0:35:43 > 0:35:47but this time, on the Brexit deal.
0:35:47 > 0:35:50I think you kind of keep fighting for what you believe in.
0:35:50 > 0:35:53You've got to have the courage of your convictions and I think
0:35:53 > 0:35:58that what politicians tend not to do is say stuff that is uncomfortable.
0:35:58 > 0:36:00Thank you very much. Thank you, bye-bye.
0:36:08 > 0:36:13He's off to Doncaster, where nearly 70% of people voted to leave,
0:36:13 > 0:36:16to thrash out HIS plan with some of them.
0:36:20 > 0:36:22The bottom line is, eventually, she's going to come back
0:36:22 > 0:36:25with some kind of a deal, and the question is,
0:36:25 > 0:36:29do you trust her and Parliament to sign it off?
0:36:29 > 0:36:32Our point is that people should be able to have one last look
0:36:32 > 0:36:35over the cliff and say, "I'm going over," or, "Do you know what?
0:36:35 > 0:36:36"I'd rather not."
0:36:36 > 0:36:39I don't agree with another referendum.
0:36:39 > 0:36:42You know, the country's made a decision.
0:36:42 > 0:36:44Why are we having the bickering?
0:36:44 > 0:36:46Let's go forward together. We will get there.
0:36:46 > 0:36:48It's going to happen so, everybody, get behind it
0:36:48 > 0:36:50and make it happen in the best possible way.
0:36:50 > 0:36:52I don't think it happens in the best possible way
0:36:52 > 0:36:55if there's no resistance and no challenge to the Prime Minister.
0:36:55 > 0:36:57The trouble is, it's not a football match.
0:36:57 > 0:36:59It's not like we've scored one goal.
0:36:59 > 0:37:01You come in now, Tim, you get your referendum,
0:37:01 > 0:37:04you score another one and then we take it to a penalty shootout.
0:37:04 > 0:37:06- It's not best of three. - It's not best of three.
0:37:06 > 0:37:08Although we've had two so maybe it should be.
0:37:08 > 0:37:10But you get one crack at it, you see.
0:37:10 > 0:37:13What she's doing by saying, "You're out of the single market"
0:37:13 > 0:37:15without even arguing our place is settling for a poor deal,
0:37:15 > 0:37:20and that's why we're saying that the people should decide at the end.
0:37:20 > 0:37:23So, no, I think the job of a good opposition
0:37:23 > 0:37:25is to challenge the Government so that they're better.
0:37:25 > 0:37:28For many voters, though, here and round the country,
0:37:28 > 0:37:30immigration was the priority.
0:37:30 > 0:37:35- Right, the reason why they come here...- I'll tell you in a second.
0:37:35 > 0:37:38- The reason why they come here is because of...- Money.
0:37:38 > 0:37:41- You're about to say benefits, aren't you?- Yeah, of course.- It's not.
0:37:41 > 0:37:43- Honestly, it's not. They've never heard of benefits.- Oh, come on!
0:37:43 > 0:37:45- Honestly, they haven't. - What's in that coffee?
0:37:45 > 0:37:48- Honestly, they haven't. - I'll have some of that!
0:37:48 > 0:37:53Your average European in Britain is youngish, working, paying taxes.
0:37:53 > 0:37:54They are.
0:37:54 > 0:37:58And we have a kind of misconcept of the value or the damage
0:37:58 > 0:38:01that European labour is doing here.
0:38:01 > 0:38:03Democracy has spoken. Do you not believe in democracy?
0:38:03 > 0:38:07Yeah, I do. I think democracy means two things.
0:38:07 > 0:38:09One is having the grace to accept when you've not won,
0:38:09 > 0:38:11and the second is, you don't flipping give up.
0:38:11 > 0:38:14You stake out a case and you argue people to follow you,
0:38:14 > 0:38:17and you may succeed or you may fail.
0:38:17 > 0:38:20A referendum on the deal is not just democracy - it's about closure.
0:38:20 > 0:38:23It's about the country agreeing that, yes, this deal,
0:38:23 > 0:38:25we're content with it.
0:38:25 > 0:38:27The danger of there not being a referendum at the end
0:38:27 > 0:38:30is the Government decides and three-quarters of the country say,
0:38:30 > 0:38:33"I didn't vote for that," and there is simmering resentment
0:38:33 > 0:38:34and there's no closure.
0:38:36 > 0:38:38I can see why he's a politician, he has a lot of personal charm,
0:38:38 > 0:38:40he's a very persuasive speaker.
0:38:40 > 0:38:44But did he change my mind? Not for a moment.
0:38:44 > 0:38:47We've got to take it on the chin and move forward as a United Kingdom
0:38:47 > 0:38:49and, actually, let's make this happen.
0:38:49 > 0:38:51Let's stop the rot, stop the circle -
0:38:51 > 0:38:52let's just get on with it.
0:38:52 > 0:38:57Theresa May's calculation is that most Britons would agree with that.
0:38:57 > 0:38:59They just want her to get on with it.
0:39:04 > 0:39:07And it's the decision to control the country's borders
0:39:07 > 0:39:11that has defined the Prime Minister's plan.
0:39:11 > 0:39:13But will she actually be able to cut
0:39:13 > 0:39:16the numbers of people who come here?
0:39:19 > 0:39:22We're seen as a brilliant business making brilliant cakes.
0:39:22 > 0:39:24We've been in Taunton since 1865.
0:39:24 > 0:39:27I'd like to think we'll be here for another 150 years.
0:39:34 > 0:39:38Chris Ormrod runs a bakery in the heart of Somerset.
0:39:39 > 0:39:44We employ 400 people locally, 200 of them British and the other 200
0:39:44 > 0:39:46are from a mixture of nationalities from the EU,
0:39:46 > 0:39:48and in some cases, beyond.
0:39:48 > 0:39:50So, if you suddenly give me a very hard Brexit and say,
0:39:50 > 0:39:53"You can't employ unskilled labour,"
0:39:53 > 0:39:55I kind of worry where I'm going to get my staff from
0:39:55 > 0:39:58to do the sort of things that we do and to carry on growing the business
0:39:58 > 0:40:01for the future, and that is a sleepless night kind of question
0:40:01 > 0:40:04and I don't know how to answer that properly at this stage.
0:40:05 > 0:40:09Chris isn't the only person worried here.
0:40:09 > 0:40:12Chef Lubo has been in Britain for eight years.
0:40:12 > 0:40:14When we first moved here,
0:40:14 > 0:40:18my daughter was five months old, and now she's eight.
0:40:18 > 0:40:21My son is six, so both my children were raised here.
0:40:21 > 0:40:25They went to kindergarten, they went to school here.
0:40:25 > 0:40:27They feel they belong here.
0:40:27 > 0:40:31If it was going down the hard Brexit way, then the worst-case scenario
0:40:31 > 0:40:35for us would be to move, me and my whole family, over to Slovakia.
0:40:35 > 0:40:37That's not what we planned.
0:40:37 > 0:40:39That's not the future we planned for our children.
0:40:39 > 0:40:41So, it's not just about us.
0:40:41 > 0:40:43It's about our children and it would have
0:40:43 > 0:40:46a massive impact on their lives, as well, yeah.
0:40:48 > 0:40:52The fate of the three million or so EU citizens who live here,
0:40:52 > 0:40:55as well as more than a million Brits who live on the Continent
0:40:55 > 0:40:59will be on the table when the Brexit talks begin.
0:40:59 > 0:41:02But this business - and many others - depend on them.
0:41:02 > 0:41:04I suspect most people would say,
0:41:04 > 0:41:06"Why don't you just hire more Brits locally?"
0:41:06 > 0:41:08Believe you me, we have tried.
0:41:08 > 0:41:12As I stand right now, we've got 30 vacancies.
0:41:12 > 0:41:15That's very nearly 8% of my workforce and I can't fill them
0:41:15 > 0:41:18and the simple truth is there just aren't enough local people
0:41:18 > 0:41:20that want to come and work in a factory.
0:41:23 > 0:41:26Fears shared in very different industries
0:41:26 > 0:41:29in very different parts of the country.
0:41:29 > 0:41:32Let me give you one simple statistic.
0:41:32 > 0:41:3412.5% of London's workforce -
0:41:34 > 0:41:37that is more than 600,000 Londoners
0:41:37 > 0:41:39and they're Londoners, by the way,
0:41:39 > 0:41:41were born in countries in the European Union.
0:41:41 > 0:41:44They work in construction, they work in finance, they work in tech,
0:41:44 > 0:41:46they work in the professional services.
0:41:46 > 0:41:48They help our city thrive and flourish.
0:41:48 > 0:41:50If we can't continue to attract them,
0:41:50 > 0:41:52we're going to struggle and suffer.
0:41:52 > 0:41:55But Theresa May has been absolutely clear - we're not staying
0:41:55 > 0:41:57in the single market and she's determined
0:41:57 > 0:42:01to bring immigration down and that means an end to freedom of movement.
0:42:01 > 0:42:02I accept the argument.
0:42:02 > 0:42:06There are parts of the country that don't want immigration.
0:42:06 > 0:42:08There are parts of the country where the voters there
0:42:08 > 0:42:11voted to leave the EU because they thought
0:42:11 > 0:42:13it would lead to less immigration.
0:42:13 > 0:42:16I'm quite clear in relation to London -
0:42:16 > 0:42:18if we're going to continue to flourish and thrive,
0:42:18 > 0:42:20we need to continue to be able to attract talent.
0:42:24 > 0:42:27Since the referendum, the Government's tried to reassure
0:42:27 > 0:42:31individual industries they won't lose their workers,
0:42:31 > 0:42:35but does that mean immigration won't fall?
0:42:35 > 0:42:38Right now, on what the Government is telling us,
0:42:38 > 0:42:41we're going to still be bringing the majority,
0:42:41 > 0:42:45probably the large majority, of these people in from Europe,
0:42:45 > 0:42:48yet that was the main reason people gave for pulling us out of Europe.
0:42:48 > 0:42:53So, all I'm saying is a very simple thing.
0:42:53 > 0:42:56When people start not just to see the pain, but start to realise
0:42:56 > 0:43:00in terms of the gain, we're not going to be pulling
0:43:00 > 0:43:03those European numbers down to a few thousand.
0:43:03 > 0:43:07People are going to carrying on coming because we want them to come.
0:43:07 > 0:43:09For how long should voters expect
0:43:09 > 0:43:12to continue to see significant levels of immigration
0:43:12 > 0:43:15from the European Union? Because that's what it's about, isn't it?
0:43:15 > 0:43:17There was a political promise of us being able
0:43:17 > 0:43:19to bring immigration down, leaving the European Union, of course...
0:43:19 > 0:43:22It will come down. Listen, make no bones about it, the Prime Minister,
0:43:22 > 0:43:25ex-Home Secretary, is determined that it will come down,
0:43:25 > 0:43:28but it'll come down in a way that doesn't do harm.
0:43:28 > 0:43:31For swathes of voters, though, shouldn't you be preparing them
0:43:31 > 0:43:33for something that feels rather different
0:43:33 > 0:43:35to what they think they were promised?
0:43:35 > 0:43:36Might we not end up with a bad compromise here
0:43:36 > 0:43:40where significant levels of immigration remain over time
0:43:40 > 0:43:42so that business doesn't lose out,
0:43:42 > 0:43:44but then also a new bureaucratic system
0:43:44 > 0:43:48of dealing with work permits and visas for business?
0:43:48 > 0:43:51That's not going to be a great compromise for anyone, is it?
0:43:51 > 0:43:53Look, it's going to be a good outcome.
0:43:53 > 0:43:56It's going to be a good outcome because A - we'll control it,
0:43:56 > 0:43:57that's the first thing.
0:43:57 > 0:43:59We'll decide and we'll make decisions on economic,
0:43:59 > 0:44:01also on social grounds and so on.
0:44:01 > 0:44:04Secondly, the bureaucracy can be overstated.
0:44:04 > 0:44:07It doesn't have to be bureaucratic. It's very plain, what we want to do.
0:44:07 > 0:44:09We want to keep our economy running
0:44:09 > 0:44:12at the same time as bringing immigration down. I want to do both.
0:44:12 > 0:44:14And how long should it take?
0:44:14 > 0:44:18Well, it'll take what it takes because the economy will drive it.
0:44:22 > 0:44:25But there's another fault line, a fundamental one -
0:44:25 > 0:44:30the tension between Scotland and the rest of the UK.
0:44:30 > 0:44:33Just listen to this from the Prime Minister's very first speech
0:44:33 > 0:44:35on the steps of Number Ten.
0:44:37 > 0:44:41It means we believe in the union - the precious, precious bond
0:44:41 > 0:44:46between England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland.
0:44:52 > 0:44:56Yet more than 60% of those who voted in Scotland
0:44:56 > 0:44:58chose to remain in the EU
0:44:58 > 0:45:02That's encouraged those who believe in independence
0:45:02 > 0:45:05to push for a second vote.
0:45:05 > 0:45:10Theresa May, in deciding to play to the hard-Right Brexiteers
0:45:10 > 0:45:14of her own party rather than trying to find maximum common ground,
0:45:14 > 0:45:17is in danger of making a decision to leave the EU,
0:45:17 > 0:45:20which I already think would have been damaging,
0:45:20 > 0:45:22potentially quite catastrophic for the UK.
0:45:22 > 0:45:24Your opponents would say, though, you're trying to use
0:45:24 > 0:45:28this situation to revive the independence arguments.
0:45:28 > 0:45:31I deliberately didn't, the morning after the EU referendum,
0:45:31 > 0:45:33say, "Right, that's it, we're off
0:45:33 > 0:45:35"and we're having a second independence referendum,"
0:45:35 > 0:45:39because I wanted to see if we could find that compromise ground.
0:45:39 > 0:45:42I'm not hugely optimistic about it at this stage
0:45:42 > 0:45:47because we've been met with a bit of a brick wall from the UK Government,
0:45:47 > 0:45:50but I'm honouring the commitment I made in this very room
0:45:50 > 0:45:54on 24th June to exhaust all possibilities.
0:45:54 > 0:45:57But, equally, I've been very clear.
0:45:57 > 0:46:01I think a second independence referendum is highly likely.
0:46:01 > 0:46:04You just dispute the sense,
0:46:04 > 0:46:07the claim that the case for independence has been
0:46:07 > 0:46:12strengthened fundamentally by the fact that the UK is leaving the EU.
0:46:12 > 0:46:15- No, the case for independence is weaker now.- It's weaker?
0:46:15 > 0:46:18The truth about the Scottish Nationalist Party
0:46:18 > 0:46:19is that they have one aim -
0:46:19 > 0:46:23they want to destroy the United Kingdom and they will bend
0:46:23 > 0:46:26and twist any aspect of politics
0:46:26 > 0:46:30in order to fit this preordained ideological goal
0:46:30 > 0:46:32and we should call them out.
0:46:32 > 0:46:34In Westminster,
0:46:34 > 0:46:38some politicians think you're bluffing about holding a referendum.
0:46:38 > 0:46:41Well, I'm not and I never have been.
0:46:41 > 0:46:44I always think that sometimes kind of says more about them
0:46:44 > 0:46:46than it says about me
0:46:46 > 0:46:49because it suggests that there are politicians in Westminster
0:46:49 > 0:46:52who think Brexit and all of this is some kind of game.
0:46:52 > 0:46:54It's not a game, it's really, really serious
0:46:54 > 0:46:56and the implications for the UK are serious
0:46:56 > 0:46:59and the implications for Scotland are serious.
0:46:59 > 0:47:02Some of your colleagues now talk about autumn 2018 as a likely date.
0:47:02 > 0:47:05Within that window, I guess,
0:47:05 > 0:47:11of when the outline of a UK deal becomes clear
0:47:11 > 0:47:13and the UK exciting the EU,
0:47:13 > 0:47:16I think would be the common-sense time
0:47:16 > 0:47:19for Scotland to have that choice,
0:47:19 > 0:47:21if that is the road we choose to go down.
0:47:21 > 0:47:24Just to be clear, you're not ruling out autumn 2018?
0:47:24 > 0:47:25I'm not ruling anything out, no.
0:47:27 > 0:47:30It seems the government in Scotland is deadly serious
0:47:30 > 0:47:32about another vote on independence.
0:47:32 > 0:47:36It means when Theresa May is up to her eyes in trying
0:47:36 > 0:47:38to get a good deal from the European Union,
0:47:38 > 0:47:42she might also be grappling in a fierce fight
0:47:42 > 0:47:44to keep the UK together.
0:47:46 > 0:47:50There are serious issues for Northern Ireland, too.
0:47:50 > 0:47:53The peace process which ended the Troubles
0:47:53 > 0:47:57partly depended on an open border with the Republic in the south.
0:47:57 > 0:48:01But Theresa May's decision to leave the single market
0:48:01 > 0:48:03and what's called the Customs Union
0:48:03 > 0:48:06could force a return to a hard border,
0:48:06 > 0:48:08with echoes of the past.
0:48:09 > 0:48:13The risks to the peace process, I think, are substantial.
0:48:13 > 0:48:16If you start putting a hard border down there,
0:48:16 > 0:48:18quite apart from all the disruption and the difficulty,
0:48:18 > 0:48:24you will change that context in a way that is profound and adverse.
0:48:24 > 0:48:27Tony Blair has told us in this programme that there is
0:48:27 > 0:48:28a real risk to the peace process
0:48:28 > 0:48:30while the border issue is unresolved,
0:48:30 > 0:48:32that things could be very unpredictable in Northern Ireland.
0:48:32 > 0:48:34Is he right?
0:48:34 > 0:48:36Well, no, I don't think he is and the reason he's not right
0:48:36 > 0:48:40is because everybody is seized of the issue so we, all of us,
0:48:40 > 0:48:42want to solve it and what does solve it mean?
0:48:42 > 0:48:44It means having a frictionless border.
0:48:44 > 0:48:46It means not going back to the borders of the past.
0:48:46 > 0:48:50I am confident we can actually get a resolution
0:48:50 > 0:48:52which is comfortable for the people of Northern Ireland
0:48:52 > 0:48:56and also comfortable for the Republic of Ireland, as well.
0:49:01 > 0:49:06By the end of the month, Theresa May will press the button
0:49:06 > 0:49:09on two years of Brexit negotiations.
0:49:10 > 0:49:13They'll be as complex and as tortuous
0:49:13 > 0:49:18as anything that's been attempted since the European Union was born.
0:49:18 > 0:49:21This time, every leader in that room is negotiating
0:49:21 > 0:49:23not just with their foreign counterparts,
0:49:23 > 0:49:25but with their own media,
0:49:25 > 0:49:26with their own parliament,
0:49:26 > 0:49:30with their own party and with their own public and that is a very,
0:49:30 > 0:49:34very tough negotiation to get right, that multi-dimensional chess game.
0:49:38 > 0:49:42There are crucial elections in France and Germany this year.
0:49:42 > 0:49:45With Europe's most powerful politicians distracted,
0:49:45 > 0:49:49it may be autumn before any serious talks begin in this town.
0:49:52 > 0:49:55With so much to negotiate, no-one doubts one thing -
0:49:55 > 0:49:59there'll be long days, late nights, it will go to the wire.
0:50:01 > 0:50:06In a negotiation which is relatively fixed in time,
0:50:06 > 0:50:08why would you make a major concession,
0:50:08 > 0:50:12once you've started the negotiations, halfway through?
0:50:12 > 0:50:15You would save that all up for when you're getting to the 11th hour,
0:50:15 > 0:50:18for when you're approaching the end of the two years
0:50:18 > 0:50:21and that will make it an agonisingly difficult process. It always does.
0:50:21 > 0:50:25There's always somebody holding out for a bit more.
0:50:25 > 0:50:26Most European deals, in the end,
0:50:26 > 0:50:32are settled either at the last minute or after the last minute.
0:50:33 > 0:50:36David Cameron learned that lesson the hard way
0:50:36 > 0:50:39in previous battles in Brussels.
0:50:39 > 0:50:43And it's frankly not acceptable for the way for it to be left
0:50:43 > 0:50:46to this last minute and then attempt at reopening it
0:50:46 > 0:50:49and the sort of ambush at 1am
0:50:49 > 0:50:52at the end of a European Council meeting.
0:50:52 > 0:50:56I just think this is no way for an organisation to conduct itself
0:50:56 > 0:50:58and I find it immensely frustrating, but, you know,
0:50:58 > 0:51:01in this town, you have to be ready for an ambush at any minute
0:51:01 > 0:51:02and that means, you know,
0:51:02 > 0:51:04lock and load and have one up the spout and be ready for it.
0:51:04 > 0:51:06That's exactly what I did.
0:51:06 > 0:51:09The reality of these negotiations,
0:51:09 > 0:51:11particularly at three o'clock in the morning,
0:51:11 > 0:51:13is that no plan survives contact with the enemy.
0:51:13 > 0:51:17You can have spent months preparing the perfect game plan,
0:51:17 > 0:51:21but, just as in a military campaign, it will all come down
0:51:21 > 0:51:25to those fine, minute judgments you make on the spot.
0:51:31 > 0:51:35Bon soir. Des frites, s'il vous plait, pour trois euros.
0:51:35 > 0:51:37'In this diplomatic game,
0:51:37 > 0:51:41'the questions - who has most to lose and who blinks first.'
0:51:41 > 0:51:43Voila.
0:51:45 > 0:51:47This is Brussels' most famous chippie
0:51:47 > 0:51:50and Angela Merkel even popped down here from a summit
0:51:50 > 0:51:53when things got a bit fraught late at night and round here,
0:51:53 > 0:51:55things do get very, very late
0:51:55 > 0:51:58and very, very tricky and the closer we get
0:51:58 > 0:52:01to the end of the two-year deadline,
0:52:01 > 0:52:03the more pressure there is on Theresa May.
0:52:03 > 0:52:06Her opponents across the table,
0:52:06 > 0:52:09they know full well she doesn't want to walk away with nothing.
0:52:12 > 0:52:15If the deadline looms, and there's deadlock,
0:52:15 > 0:52:20one option for the Government is to seek a temporary arrangement,
0:52:20 > 0:52:22but that's not what ministers want.
0:52:24 > 0:52:28What does that transitional arrangement look like?
0:52:28 > 0:52:30If it consists of more or less staying in the status quo
0:52:30 > 0:52:33in terms of access to the single market
0:52:33 > 0:52:34and everything that goes with that
0:52:34 > 0:52:39in terms of respecting the rules of the European Court of Justice,
0:52:39 > 0:52:41allowing freedom of movement of labour,
0:52:41 > 0:52:44then I think there are many people in this country
0:52:44 > 0:52:46who would find that very difficult to accept.
0:52:47 > 0:52:51Look, this is the reality. There's a bunch of people.
0:52:51 > 0:52:54They have lived, eaten, drank, slept,
0:52:54 > 0:52:59everything for this moment and they are not going to let anybody
0:52:59 > 0:53:03snatch it away from them and Theresa May knows that.
0:53:03 > 0:53:06You can't appease them and if she doesn't deliver what they want,
0:53:06 > 0:53:10they will stab her in the back, just as they did with Major
0:53:10 > 0:53:13and, in effect, with DC, with Cameron.
0:53:17 > 0:53:20Ministers don't want to extend the talks beyond the two years,
0:53:20 > 0:53:22so if there's no deal,
0:53:22 > 0:53:25that leaves only one option - the cliff edge.
0:53:27 > 0:53:32The cliff edge describes the reality of one day
0:53:32 > 0:53:35being in the EU with everything that that means
0:53:35 > 0:53:38and the next day being out of it with no deal.
0:53:40 > 0:53:42And the level that you switch between
0:53:42 > 0:53:45between those two worlds is very dramatic,
0:53:45 > 0:53:48which is why it's described as falling off a cliff edge.
0:53:48 > 0:53:50There is a risk of no deal.
0:53:51 > 0:53:57If we get no deal, I think business would regard that
0:53:57 > 0:54:00as a pretty severe outcome so, you know,
0:54:00 > 0:54:02you're playing for very high stakes in this for sure
0:54:02 > 0:54:06because there are a myriad of technical questions,
0:54:06 > 0:54:09all of which actually impact on jobs and business and industry
0:54:09 > 0:54:12and trade and commerce so...
0:54:13 > 0:54:17Look, I think no deal is a bad deal.
0:54:17 > 0:54:20If you are so optimistic about getting a good deal, though,
0:54:20 > 0:54:23why did you warn your Cabinet colleagues that the risk
0:54:23 > 0:54:28of us having to walk away and not getting a deal at all is very real?
0:54:28 > 0:54:29- HE LAUGHS - Be careful!
0:54:29 > 0:54:32What I said to them was they've got to do the work
0:54:32 > 0:54:36for the so-called plan B or C or whatever it is.
0:54:36 > 0:54:37It's not plan A.
0:54:37 > 0:54:40But you acknowledge it is plan B, plan C, plan D,
0:54:40 > 0:54:42whatever you call it, the risk of not getting a deal...
0:54:42 > 0:54:44Wherever it goes on the list,
0:54:44 > 0:54:46it's our responsibility as a government
0:54:46 > 0:54:49to make preparation for all possible outcomes.
0:54:49 > 0:54:52We're going into a negotiation. We don't control the whole thing.
0:54:52 > 0:54:55By far and away the highest probability is plan A
0:54:55 > 0:54:59or some variant of it, namely a comprehensive free-trade deal.
0:54:59 > 0:55:02You are acknowledging, very publicly,
0:55:02 > 0:55:05there is a real risk of what's known as the "cliff edge".
0:55:05 > 0:55:07We walk away without a deal and some people say
0:55:07 > 0:55:10that's a catastrophe even to contemplate that.
0:55:10 > 0:55:12No, it's not a catastrophe to contemplate things.
0:55:12 > 0:55:17You contemplate things so you either avoid them or mitigate them.
0:55:17 > 0:55:20But were we to walk away, would that not be a catastrophe?
0:55:20 > 0:55:22If you went out on the street today
0:55:22 > 0:55:24and said to the ordinary member of the public,
0:55:24 > 0:55:27"Should the Government prepare for all outcomes?"
0:55:27 > 0:55:29They would say, "Of course."
0:55:29 > 0:55:31If you had to describe the chances in percentage terms
0:55:31 > 0:55:33of us getting a deal, what would you do?
0:55:33 > 0:55:35I don't intend to go down that route.
0:55:35 > 0:55:39The aim of my department is to deliver plan A.
0:55:39 > 0:55:40In two years' time,
0:55:40 > 0:55:44the world's eyes will be on this building in Brussels.
0:55:44 > 0:55:49Whatever the outcome for Britain and the EU in March 2019,
0:55:49 > 0:55:51it will make history.
0:55:53 > 0:55:57There are both short and long-term economic factors,
0:55:57 > 0:55:59which mean that Britain is likely to thrive and to succeed,
0:55:59 > 0:56:01provided we take the right decisions,
0:56:01 > 0:56:03provided we approach these negotiations
0:56:03 > 0:56:06and indeed provided we approach the world with the right attitude.
0:56:06 > 0:56:09You will see the results, the negative results,
0:56:09 > 0:56:14one would say, sooner or later, but I believe rather sooner than later.
0:56:14 > 0:56:17Don't believe that this is not going to hurt you.
0:56:17 > 0:56:23It will hurt you and that's why it is such a stupid decision to take.
0:56:24 > 0:56:28I think this is a defining moment and Brexit has been a crossroads
0:56:28 > 0:56:32for politics and what matters now is the way ahead
0:56:32 > 0:56:36and I think the political divide will be between those that believe
0:56:36 > 0:56:39in a collaborative, cooperative approach with our EU partners,
0:56:39 > 0:56:41in other words changing the relationship, not severing it
0:56:41 > 0:56:45and those that want to sever it and walk off completely
0:56:45 > 0:56:47and that's the real battle that now lies ahead.
0:56:49 > 0:56:52We want the best for Europe. We want a new approach.
0:56:52 > 0:56:56They want us there at the table for so many reasons.
0:56:56 > 0:56:59There are so many things that we do together
0:56:59 > 0:57:02that we will continue to do together.
0:57:04 > 0:57:09Whether we crash out or sail smoothly, think of this.
0:57:09 > 0:57:13Theresa May will almost inevitably
0:57:13 > 0:57:14be the last British Prime Minister
0:57:14 > 0:57:17to sit at a European table like this.
0:57:17 > 0:57:21There'll be no more - no Thatcher handbaggings,
0:57:21 > 0:57:23no Blair-Chirac bust-ups,
0:57:23 > 0:57:28no Sarkozy telling David Cameron to shut up...allegedly.
0:57:28 > 0:57:29It'll be it.
0:57:29 > 0:57:35Probably one night in March 2019, probably one very late night,
0:57:35 > 0:57:38Theresa May will walk out of here,
0:57:38 > 0:57:42taking Britain out of the European Union with her.
0:57:42 > 0:57:48What she achieves or does not achieve in this room
0:57:48 > 0:57:51will define her record and change our country.