0:00:12 > 0:00:13Hello, I'm Katya Adler.
0:00:13 > 0:00:15And I'm Kamal Ahmed.
0:00:15 > 0:00:17He reports on economics for the BBC.
0:00:17 > 0:00:21And Katya reports from all around Europe, often from Brussels.
0:00:21 > 0:00:23For the next half hour, we'll try to bring you the essential,
0:00:23 > 0:00:27up-to-date guide on the big issue that 33 and a half million people
0:00:27 > 0:00:31in Britain voted on a year ago - whether to remain inside or to leave
0:00:31 > 0:00:38the European Union.
0:00:38 > 0:00:41That result - 17 and a half million for leaving
0:00:41 > 0:00:44and 16 million for remaining - was a majority for Britain exiting
0:00:44 > 0:00:45the EU, what we all call Brexit.
0:00:45 > 0:00:47But after an election result where no-one won
0:00:47 > 0:00:51a majority, what's changed?
0:00:51 > 0:00:53The deadline has been set, the clock is ticking,
0:00:53 > 0:00:56the EU says there'll be no concessions.
0:00:56 > 0:00:58But what are Britain's options now?
0:00:58 > 0:01:00What next for Brexit?
0:01:00 > 0:01:03Well, I'm heading to Brussels to get some answers and to speak
0:01:03 > 0:01:06to those on the other side of the negotiating table.
0:01:06 > 0:01:08And I'm going the other way.
0:01:08 > 0:01:12To the north - to a town with a special place in my life
0:01:12 > 0:01:19and which helps to tell the story of a very divided Britain.
0:01:23 > 0:01:25Rotherham in South Yorkshire is the area where my mother was born.
0:01:25 > 0:01:27It voted firmly for Brexit.
0:01:27 > 0:01:30But after a year of turmoil, I want to find out if views
0:01:30 > 0:01:32there have changed.
0:01:32 > 0:01:34For years, Rotherham was famous for steel
0:01:34 > 0:01:40and for coal, with factories and pits employing thousands.
0:01:40 > 0:01:44Mostly gone now, along with the jobs.
0:01:44 > 0:01:46Today, the forges are silent at what was once the biggest
0:01:46 > 0:01:49steelworks in Europe.
0:01:49 > 0:01:52It's now a science theme park.
0:01:52 > 0:01:55But new industries have taken root.
0:01:55 > 0:01:56Newburgh Precision makes hi-tech steel components
0:01:56 > 0:02:01for markets at home and abroad.
0:02:01 > 0:02:05The chairman is Vince Middleton.
0:02:05 > 0:02:08Unlike many business leaders worried about Britain leaving the EU,
0:02:08 > 0:02:18he wants out, and says he's already been feeling a Brexit bounce.
0:02:19 > 0:02:21Certainly since the referendum, our orders have increased,
0:02:21 > 0:02:22our confidence has increased, our recruitment's increased,
0:02:22 > 0:02:26so from our personal point of view, we've seen a boost.
0:02:26 > 0:02:29He's confident too that British industry can thrive outside the EU,
0:02:29 > 0:02:32if politicians get it right.
0:02:32 > 0:02:35The confidence in the political arena to deliver a good deal is very
0:02:35 > 0:02:40low, both within the EU and within the UK, I think.
0:02:40 > 0:02:44A year ago, Rotherham voted two-to-one to leave.
0:02:44 > 0:02:47At Natters Social Club, I asked if people had
0:02:47 > 0:02:52changed their minds.
0:02:52 > 0:02:55What we voted for, to me, that's final.
0:02:55 > 0:02:57If the people that lost that vote - tough.
0:02:57 > 0:02:59Immigration was an issue for me.
0:02:59 > 0:03:02You know, we've got 375,000 people from the world and Europe,
0:03:02 > 0:03:04coming into Great Britain, size of Birmingham.
0:03:04 > 0:03:05Where are they going to live?
0:03:05 > 0:03:08Where are they going to go to school?
0:03:08 > 0:03:09Where are they going work?
0:03:09 > 0:03:12You can't have that volume coming in without making plans for them,
0:03:12 > 0:03:15which we never did.
0:03:15 > 0:03:17I would be more than willing for our country to stand
0:03:17 > 0:03:19on its own feet again.
0:03:19 > 0:03:22If we're going into a depression, fine, we'll do it for now
0:03:22 > 0:03:24but we will rise again.
0:03:24 > 0:03:26And that's what I believe.
0:03:26 > 0:03:28So, from what I heard, Rotherham leavers haven't
0:03:28 > 0:03:31changed their minds.
0:03:31 > 0:03:35And their message loud and clear to Westminster is - get on with it.
0:03:38 > 0:03:41Rotherham voted one way, but where I grew up -
0:03:41 > 0:03:44160 miles south in Ealing, west London - it was the other
0:03:44 > 0:03:49way around, for Remain.
0:03:55 > 0:03:57I'm coming to see someone who understands why
0:03:57 > 0:03:59Rotherham and Ealing felt so differently, my mum.
0:03:59 > 0:04:02I don't think you were quite a teenager there, but you obviously
0:04:02 > 0:04:06fancied yourself as a teenager!
0:04:06 > 0:04:09I remember going on the train from Sheffield to Rotherham.
0:04:09 > 0:04:11You passed all these furnaces, you could see the workshop
0:04:11 > 0:04:13with the fires going, and people were busy.
0:04:13 > 0:04:15People worked in the mines or the steel works, I think
0:04:15 > 0:04:20they felt that they had a place.
0:04:20 > 0:04:22Now, why do you think round here and London in general
0:04:22 > 0:04:24voted very heavily to stay in?
0:04:24 > 0:04:26I don't think there's pressure on jobs so much around
0:04:26 > 0:04:29here as there is in other parts of the country.
0:04:29 > 0:04:31Being a very cosmopolitan city, people are used to mixing
0:04:31 > 0:04:33with all sorts of different people.
0:04:33 > 0:04:39We all get on, on the whole, very well.
0:04:39 > 0:04:41We enjoy that diversity, it's something we're very proud
0:04:41 > 0:04:48of and we're happy to be part of.
0:04:48 > 0:04:51Two of my childhood friends, John and Pier, still live in London.
0:04:51 > 0:04:55I met them - and John's children - at a local haunt.
0:04:55 > 0:04:59How did you feel the day after the actual referendum?
0:04:59 > 0:05:02I felt really quite depressed, it was very sad to see that a lot
0:05:02 > 0:05:08of people had voted to leave.
0:05:08 > 0:05:10It was just like what was next then, what happens now?
0:05:10 > 0:05:13I am resigned to the fact we are going to have to leave,
0:05:13 > 0:05:16but I am also reassured by the fact that the election has
0:05:16 > 0:05:19resulted in a compromise, that has really put the brakes
0:05:19 > 0:05:21on Brexit, as it were.
0:05:21 > 0:05:23Pier, you are a senior doctor in the NHS -
0:05:23 > 0:05:25has it affected the atmosphere around the health service?
0:05:25 > 0:05:27In my department, nearly half of the consultants
0:05:27 > 0:05:31are European consultants.
0:05:31 > 0:05:34A hard Brexit in the most extreme sense would be
0:05:34 > 0:05:35a disaster for Britain.
0:05:35 > 0:05:37Jade, do you think people understand hard/soft Brexit and what those
0:05:37 > 0:05:39two terms might mean?
0:05:39 > 0:05:41I can't speak on behalf of the country but I certainly
0:05:41 > 0:05:42have absolutely no idea.
0:05:42 > 0:05:44Not the whole country maybe, but Jade is possibly
0:05:44 > 0:05:45speaking for many.
0:05:45 > 0:05:51This hugely important debate is in danger of drowning in jargon.
0:05:51 > 0:05:53The phrases being used like hard Brexit and soft Brexit
0:05:53 > 0:05:55are of course political, and for many are adding
0:05:55 > 0:05:59to this sense of confusion.
0:05:59 > 0:06:04But let's try and explain what the differences might be.
0:06:04 > 0:06:06First, hard Brexit.
0:06:06 > 0:06:11What some people have described as clean Brexit.
0:06:11 > 0:06:18Bluntly, hard Brexit means the UK is completely out of the EU.
0:06:18 > 0:06:21Out of the single market, which allows the free
0:06:21 > 0:06:22movement of goods, people, services, and money
0:06:22 > 0:06:28between all EU members.
0:06:28 > 0:06:31Out of the customs union, in which all EU members buy
0:06:31 > 0:06:33and sell from each other without paying import taxes.
0:06:33 > 0:06:36And they all charge the same taxes on goods coming
0:06:36 > 0:06:42in from the rest of the world.
0:06:42 > 0:06:43Britain would regain control...
0:06:43 > 0:06:46Control of its borders and immigration - no more open door
0:06:46 > 0:06:49to people from the EU.
0:06:49 > 0:06:50Control of employment rights and trade -
0:06:50 > 0:06:52a British rule book, not an EU one.
0:06:52 > 0:06:55Control of its own trade deals with countries outside
0:06:55 > 0:06:57the EU like America, China and India.
0:06:57 > 0:07:00Many say hard Brexit could cause economic damage not just
0:07:00 > 0:07:10to the UK but also to the EU.
0:07:11 > 0:07:13We are the second largest economy in the EU.
0:07:13 > 0:07:15Since the election, things have certainly become less clear.
0:07:15 > 0:07:18Some people believe we should now be pushing for what is described
0:07:18 > 0:07:19as a "softer" Brexit.
0:07:19 > 0:07:22Many argue this makes jobs and the economy the priority -
0:07:22 > 0:07:24more important than controlling immigration or regaining
0:07:24 > 0:07:30sovereignty.
0:07:30 > 0:07:32With a softer Brexit, Britain could gain special access
0:07:32 > 0:07:35to the single market, but we might have to make it easier
0:07:35 > 0:07:39for EU immigrants to work here.
0:07:39 > 0:07:43We could just try and stay in that EU customs union.
0:07:43 > 0:07:45That would allow free movement of goods, but not
0:07:45 > 0:07:48free movement of people.
0:07:48 > 0:07:51EU trade laws would still apply, which would prevent the UK
0:07:51 > 0:07:55signing its own trade deals with other countries.
0:07:59 > 0:08:01Brexit is up there as one of the most dramatic European
0:08:01 > 0:08:03stories I've ever covered.
0:08:03 > 0:08:05The economics, the politics, and the effect it can
0:08:05 > 0:08:08have on all our lives.
0:08:08 > 0:08:12It's a real ripping up of the history books.
0:08:12 > 0:08:15Brussels hosted the first day of negotiations between the EU
0:08:15 > 0:08:19and Brexit Britain just last week.
0:08:19 > 0:08:21In all the years I've lived and worked across Europe,
0:08:21 > 0:08:26no-one here saw this day coming.
0:08:26 > 0:08:29After 12 months since we had the EU referendum, only now
0:08:29 > 0:08:36the face-to-face talks started between the UK and the EU.
0:08:42 > 0:08:46And the EU still has no idea what the UK wants.
0:08:48 > 0:08:54We must first tackle the uncertainties caused by Brexit.
0:08:54 > 0:08:59We will do all that we can to ensure that we deliver a deal that works
0:08:59 > 0:09:01in the best interests of all citizens.
0:09:01 > 0:09:02Thank you.
0:09:02 > 0:09:06Thank you very much.
0:09:06 > 0:09:09In order to make an informed guess as to where these
0:09:09 > 0:09:11negotiations might end, you first have to understand why
0:09:11 > 0:09:16the EU feels as it does about the UK leaving.
0:09:16 > 0:09:19When the result of the referendum was announced, there was genuine
0:09:19 > 0:09:22shock in this town and dismay, and a feeling that this could be
0:09:22 > 0:09:24the beginning of the end for the EU.
0:09:24 > 0:09:28Brussels insiders told me they feared for their European dream.
0:09:28 > 0:09:31So you think Brexit is a disaster for Europe.
0:09:31 > 0:09:33On a scale of one to ten, what kind of disaster?
0:09:33 > 0:09:36Ten.
0:09:36 > 0:09:40Spanish MEP Esteban Pons became a social media hit overnight
0:09:40 > 0:09:48when he delivered an impassioned speech on the break-up of EU unity.
0:09:56 > 0:09:58Since the first day that the United Kingdom
0:09:58 > 0:10:02leave the European Union, I will fight to take you back
0:10:02 > 0:10:06because Europe cannot be without United Kingdom.
0:10:06 > 0:10:08We have to invent another name because Europe
0:10:08 > 0:10:13without the United Kingdom is not Europe.
0:10:13 > 0:10:16Britain was always seen as a very valued member of the European team
0:10:16 > 0:10:19on a number of levels, and that meant that the other EU
0:10:19 > 0:10:22countries were willing to do some special deals for the UK
0:10:22 > 0:10:28to keep it sweet.
0:10:28 > 0:10:31We didn't have to join the euro currency, for example, and we got
0:10:31 > 0:10:33a rebate on our contributions to the EU budget.
0:10:33 > 0:10:35But, that was when we were inside the club.
0:10:35 > 0:10:39Now we're on our way out, and the EU says it has other priorities.
0:10:39 > 0:10:42I know the UK very well, I've been working with a lot
0:10:42 > 0:10:47of British ministers in the last 20 years - they are very fine
0:10:47 > 0:10:49negotiators, but they have the characteristics to negotiate
0:10:49 > 0:10:50in their own interest.
0:10:50 > 0:10:54We are going to negotiate for our own interest too.
0:10:54 > 0:10:56The European Commission is negotiating Brexit on behalf
0:10:56 > 0:11:01of all the EU's 27 countries.
0:11:01 > 0:11:08Nobody wants to punish the UK for its choice,
0:11:08 > 0:11:11the British people for their choice, but one thing is clear -
0:11:11 > 0:11:12the show must go on.
0:11:12 > 0:11:14The European show will go on.
0:11:14 > 0:11:20Even if there'll be some changes in the props department.
0:11:21 > 0:11:24I've been told all the flags of EU are in this room.
0:11:24 > 0:11:28Let's have a look.
0:11:28 > 0:11:32Lithuania, Latvia, Ireland, Italy in alphabetical
0:11:32 > 0:11:37order going that way.
0:11:37 > 0:11:41So where do I find our United Kingdom?
0:11:41 > 0:11:43There it is.
0:11:43 > 0:11:45Ironically actually, since we're talking about Brexit, right next
0:11:45 > 0:11:48to the European Union flag.
0:11:48 > 0:11:51I guess after the UK leaves the EU, this flag will be taken
0:11:51 > 0:11:53out of this cupboard.
0:11:53 > 0:11:56I don't know where it's going to go!
0:11:59 > 0:12:02The EU didn't know where it was going after the Brexit vote.
0:12:02 > 0:12:04It was already reeling from the migration and euro crises
0:12:04 > 0:12:10and the rise of Eurosceptics like France's Marine Le Pen.
0:12:11 > 0:12:1412 months on and it feels really different here,
0:12:14 > 0:12:19there's a new EU self-confidence in the air, and why?
0:12:19 > 0:12:22Well, a lid has been put on the migrant crisis
0:12:22 > 0:12:24and as for those populist Euro-sceptics, we've seen them
0:12:24 > 0:12:29squashed at the polls, notably in France.
0:12:29 > 0:12:32As for the shock of Brexit, far from ripping the EU apart,
0:12:32 > 0:12:34it's actually driven normally bickering European countries
0:12:34 > 0:12:38into each other's arms, forming a united front.
0:12:38 > 0:12:42For now at least.
0:12:42 > 0:12:45What about how the EU now views the UK?
0:12:45 > 0:12:47Has that changed over these last 12 months?
0:12:47 > 0:12:50Oh, I think dramatically, and particularly in the last few weeks.
0:12:50 > 0:12:52There has been utter astonishment since the general election
0:12:52 > 0:12:56at the disarray in the UK.
0:12:56 > 0:12:58They believe this chaos in British politics makes
0:12:58 > 0:13:02a deal harder to reach.
0:13:02 > 0:13:04One of the best known champions of Brexit works
0:13:04 > 0:13:06right here in Brussels.
0:13:06 > 0:13:09He dismisses all the negative talk.
0:13:09 > 0:13:13You can't be a self-governing nation if you're part of the EU.
0:13:13 > 0:13:16You can't control your borders or your immigration numbers,
0:13:16 > 0:13:18so it's the biggest constitutional change in our country
0:13:18 > 0:13:20since the 17th century.
0:13:20 > 0:13:25It's about getting back control of our laws.
0:13:25 > 0:13:28But will we?
0:13:28 > 0:13:30At the close of day one of EU-UK negotiations,
0:13:30 > 0:13:32Brussels remained unclear about the kind of Brexit
0:13:32 > 0:13:36Britain was after.
0:13:38 > 0:13:41Secretary of State, can the EU trust that what you ask for today
0:13:41 > 0:13:44or tomorrow will be what you ask for in a few days' time,
0:13:44 > 0:13:48considering the political confusion at the moment in the UK?
0:13:48 > 0:13:52We will be leaving the single market, we will be seeking to set up
0:13:52 > 0:13:53a free trade arrangement.
0:13:53 > 0:13:55Similarly, we will be leaving the Customs Union
0:13:55 > 0:13:57and that is a major upside for Britain and so circumstances
0:13:57 > 0:14:01have not changed at all.
0:14:01 > 0:14:03But from the EU perspective, everything has changed.
0:14:03 > 0:14:07I watched its chief negotiator lose his cool at this first press
0:14:07 > 0:14:13conference between the two sides.
0:14:13 > 0:14:16The focus shouldn't be on compromise in Brussels, he said.
0:14:16 > 0:14:18The UK chose to leave the EU.
0:14:18 > 0:14:22Not the other way round.
0:14:22 > 0:14:25So, despite a lingering sense of sadness, the mood music right now
0:14:25 > 0:14:28in Europe is this...
0:14:28 > 0:14:35Brexit, if you're sure you really want it, bring it on.
0:14:44 > 0:14:48After a general election that nobody quite won,
0:14:48 > 0:14:53the big question is this for Brexit: what, if anything, has changed?
0:14:53 > 0:14:55Not partial membership of the European union, no.
0:14:55 > 0:14:57The United Kingdom is leaving the European Union.
0:14:57 > 0:15:06How do you think that election result has changed
0:15:06 > 0:15:15the approach Britain will take to the Brexit negotiation?
0:15:15 > 0:15:19I think it's changed pretty fundamentally.
0:15:19 > 0:15:22Theresa May went to the country saying this
0:15:22 > 0:15:25is my mandate for an extreme form of Brexit and she didn't get it.
0:15:25 > 0:15:28And so we start the negotiations in a position where there's no clear
0:15:28 > 0:15:32mandate and the Prime Minister's lost authority abroad.
0:15:32 > 0:15:35Overall I don't think it makes a very big difference, if any,
0:15:35 > 0:15:39because the Government set out the direction of travel.
0:15:39 > 0:15:42We didn't say we would part leave the European Union,
0:15:42 > 0:15:45we said we would leave it and that's what we're going to do
0:15:45 > 0:15:47Dr Fox, you can't seriously be saying that nothing has changed
0:15:47 > 0:15:50since Theresa May failed to get a majority in Parliament and lead
0:15:50 > 0:15:55a majority government?
0:15:55 > 0:15:59In Parliament, will it be easier erm, with no overall
0:15:59 > 0:16:01majority, of course it won't but the Government's
0:16:01 > 0:16:02approach will be the same
0:16:02 > 0:16:06because we believe that what we set out is in our national interest.
0:16:06 > 0:16:08I think many people who campaigned to remain
0:16:08 > 0:16:13in the European Union really feel the tide is turning.
0:16:13 > 0:16:16Just a few weeks ago, they seemed down and out but now
0:16:16 > 0:16:19they're going back into battle, fighting for a different
0:16:19 > 0:16:24kind of Brexit.
0:16:24 > 0:16:26But don't think there are many settled viewpoints.
0:16:26 > 0:16:33There are splits between parties, splits within parties.
0:16:33 > 0:16:36And now, may I invite you, Chancellor, to address the audience?
0:16:36 > 0:16:40The Chancellor Philip Hammond made his intervention
0:16:40 > 0:16:46in a speech to City and business leaders.
0:16:46 > 0:16:50When the British people voted last June, they did not vote to become
0:16:50 > 0:16:53poorer or less secure.
0:16:53 > 0:16:57They did vote to leave the EU.
0:16:57 > 0:17:00We will leave the EU but it must be done in a way
0:17:00 > 0:17:03that works for Britain.
0:17:03 > 0:17:07I am confident we can do a Brexit deal
0:17:07 > 0:17:11that puts jobs and prosperity first - that keeps our markets for goods
0:17:11 > 0:17:14and services and capital open - that achieves early agreement
0:17:14 > 0:17:18on transitional arrangements to avoid unnecessary disruption
0:17:18 > 0:17:26and dangerous cliff edges.
0:17:26 > 0:17:28Very good to hear the economy put back centre
0:17:28 > 0:17:31stage and the sense that economic growth is the only way to go.
0:17:31 > 0:17:35Jobs coming first, investment coming first.
0:17:35 > 0:17:38What really struck me about Philip Hammond's speech
0:17:38 > 0:17:42at the Mansion House was the sharp change in tone.
0:17:42 > 0:17:47He talked about jobs and prosperity, in contrast to Theresa May before
0:17:47 > 0:17:50the general election.
0:17:50 > 0:17:54She was much more focused on immigration and on sovereignty.
0:17:54 > 0:17:57The message from the public before and during the referendum campaign
0:17:57 > 0:18:00was clear - Brexit must mean control of the number of people who come
0:18:00 > 0:18:08to Britain from Europe and that is what we will deliver.
0:18:08 > 0:18:11Next door neighbours but different approaches.
0:18:11 > 0:18:15Mrs May wants to cut immigration to the tens of thousands.
0:18:15 > 0:18:18The Chancellor is keener to promote immigration
0:18:18 > 0:18:25as good for the economy - a view shared by political rivals.
0:18:25 > 0:18:28What he is doing, it seems to me is, is inching closer to the position
0:18:28 > 0:18:30we've been advocating for some time.
0:18:30 > 0:18:34We've said jobs in the economy must be the priority.
0:18:34 > 0:18:37At his Mansion House speech, he said jobs and prosperity must
0:18:37 > 0:18:42be the priority, so that's almost the same language
0:18:42 > 0:18:45as we've been using.
0:18:45 > 0:18:47Is there common ground between you, between the Liberal Democrats
0:18:47 > 0:18:50and Mr Hammond's position that he has outlined?
0:18:50 > 0:18:53I think there is a lot of common ground with him and indeed
0:18:53 > 0:18:56with a lot of people in the Labour Party who,
0:18:56 > 0:18:59who can see the potential disasters of going into
0:18:59 > 0:19:04a really hard, disruptive, extreme form of Brexit.
0:19:04 > 0:19:07And I think our job is to reach out to them to find ways
0:19:07 > 0:19:10of achieving compromise.
0:19:10 > 0:19:13So, where might those compromises come?
0:19:13 > 0:19:16Well, let's look at Honda's factory in Swindon.
0:19:16 > 0:19:19It's the European single market in action.
0:19:19 > 0:19:22Every day two million components are delivered here,
0:19:22 > 0:19:26many of them from across Europe, with no hold ups at the border.
0:19:26 > 0:19:34If we leave the customs union, it could spell trouble for some.
0:19:34 > 0:19:36We don't want our components stuck at ports.
0:19:36 > 0:19:39We don't want to see our cars going to Europe
0:19:39 > 0:19:41being stuck this side of the Channel.
0:19:41 > 0:19:44It's really keeping that free flow of product going.
0:19:44 > 0:19:48One compromise could be to stay in the customs union
0:19:48 > 0:19:53where goods can cross borders within the EU without import taxes.
0:19:53 > 0:19:59But that's not government policy at the moment - it wants out.
0:19:59 > 0:20:02For me, it's about getting what we promised the British people,
0:20:02 > 0:20:04getting control of their laws, getting control of the borders.
0:20:04 > 0:20:07You cannot do those things if we remain inside the single
0:20:07 > 0:20:10market and inside the customs union.
0:20:10 > 0:20:13If you want the benefits of Brexit, being able to get new trade
0:20:13 > 0:20:16agreements so that we can access the growing markets of the world,
0:20:16 > 0:20:19that requires the model that we have set out.
0:20:19 > 0:20:21The customs union will be one of the big battles over
0:20:21 > 0:20:25the next few months.
0:20:25 > 0:20:28If we stay inside it - as many big businesses
0:20:28 > 0:20:32want - that could mean we won't be allowed to sign free
0:20:32 > 0:20:36trade deals with countries outside the EU.
0:20:36 > 0:20:44And if that happens, frankly, Liam Fox would be out of a job.
0:20:44 > 0:20:47And how long would any deal take?
0:20:47 > 0:20:50Well, the EU divorce is meant to be completed by 2019.
0:20:50 > 0:20:53And David Davis says the transition to a new relationship after that
0:20:53 > 0:20:57could take a further two years.
0:20:57 > 0:21:01Others are not as optimistic.
0:21:01 > 0:21:04There's a host of laws and regulations, which we have
0:21:04 > 0:21:08painfully negotiated over the last 30 years that will potentially
0:21:08 > 0:21:13at least have to be unpicked and, to do this in a sensible way
0:21:13 > 0:21:20really is, we are talking decade rather than years.
0:21:20 > 0:21:22The transitional arrangements will probably be in the order
0:21:22 > 0:21:24of about three years.
0:21:24 > 0:21:27Now it may be that they would have to be extended but I
0:21:27 > 0:21:30genuinely think that we should be able to get the divorce
0:21:30 > 0:21:31aspect in the two-year framework
0:21:31 > 0:21:33and then probably about three years to transition
0:21:33 > 0:21:35to a new partnership.
0:21:35 > 0:21:38I think we have to wait and see how the negotiations go.
0:21:38 > 0:21:41But on the essential point, is it reasonable to have your
0:21:41 > 0:21:45transitional period if required for the stability of our business
0:21:45 > 0:21:49and maintaining the market opportunities in Europe,
0:21:49 > 0:21:52that's perfectly reasonable.
0:21:52 > 0:21:56They may well try and dress it up as a transition period to stop
0:21:56 > 0:21:59a huge amount of public anger but I do think there is now
0:21:59 > 0:22:02a significant shift in British politics that says to me that the 17
0:22:02 > 0:22:05and a half million people who voted Brexit are probably not going to get
0:22:05 > 0:22:10what they voted for.
0:22:10 > 0:22:13A soft Brexit, a slower Brexit, some in Europe even suggest that
0:22:13 > 0:22:16Britain could stay in the EU.
0:22:16 > 0:22:19The EU was built on dreams that seemed
0:22:19 > 0:22:24impossible to ever achieve.
0:22:24 > 0:22:26So, who knows?
0:22:26 > 0:22:32You may say I'm a dreamer but I'm not the only one!
0:22:32 > 0:22:35Thank you.
0:22:35 > 0:22:40Is there any way you could foresee Britain staying in the EU?
0:22:40 > 0:22:41There's about as much chance of us staying
0:22:41 > 0:22:51in the European Union as of me finding the tooth fairy.
0:22:51 > 0:22:54There was audible spluttering across Europe, when in the lead up
0:22:54 > 0:22:56to the EU referendum, Boris Johnson said, "Do
0:22:56 > 0:22:59you know what, we can have our cake and eat it."
0:22:59 > 0:23:04We can leave the EU but keep the good bits.
0:23:04 > 0:23:07From an EU point of view it's like me coming into this
0:23:07 > 0:23:09cake shop and saying, "bonjour.
0:23:09 > 0:23:14I'd like the blueberry from on top of that cake.
0:23:14 > 0:23:17All that lovely chocolate flakes from around that one and, oh yes,
0:23:17 > 0:23:24I'll have the raspberries from right in the middle of that cake.
0:23:24 > 0:23:26Thank you."
0:23:26 > 0:23:33And off I go leaving the cake shop to sort out the mess.
0:23:33 > 0:23:35We are here in a firm but friendly attitude
0:23:35 > 0:23:41towards the UK but, no, Boris Johnson, is totally wrong.
0:23:41 > 0:23:44He's sure that in the end that Brussels will do a deal.
0:23:44 > 0:23:49This is the city of deals, often at the 11th hour.
0:23:49 > 0:23:52You British invented the clubs and when you're in the club you have
0:23:52 > 0:23:54some privileges and not being a member means that
0:23:54 > 0:23:57you lose some privileges.
0:23:57 > 0:23:59You cannot have the best of the two worlds.
0:23:59 > 0:24:00That's just impossible.
0:24:00 > 0:24:03If we were to do so that would encourage all
0:24:03 > 0:24:06of our members to leave.
0:24:06 > 0:24:09However hard the EU tries to market its tough guy approach,
0:24:09 > 0:24:10make no mistake.
0:24:10 > 0:24:15It wants a deal with the UK.
0:24:15 > 0:24:18After all, if the UK economy nosedives, that has a big impact
0:24:18 > 0:24:22on the rest of Europe.
0:24:22 > 0:24:24But Brussels insists it won't do a deal at any price.
0:24:24 > 0:24:29When the EU thinks about Brexit, it wants to do everything to protect
0:24:29 > 0:24:33the European Single Market.
0:24:33 > 0:24:35It's the biggest trade area in the whole world.
0:24:35 > 0:24:39Right now made up of half a billion potential customers.
0:24:39 > 0:24:42The thing is, it's not just about goods and trade, it's
0:24:42 > 0:24:45about the free movement of people as well.
0:24:45 > 0:24:48And so when UK politicians say they want full control over
0:24:48 > 0:24:50immigration but they want to retain the full benefits of the European
0:24:50 > 0:25:00single market, Brussels says that's pie in the sky.
0:25:02 > 0:25:06A taste of things to come then - an EU no to compromise when it comes
0:25:06 > 0:25:07to its rules and principles.
0:25:07 > 0:25:12But is that realistic?
0:25:12 > 0:25:16Isn't it true that the EU has all the cards?
0:25:16 > 0:25:18What you're saying is that our European partners would treat us
0:25:18 > 0:25:19as international pariahs,
0:25:19 > 0:25:21not want our business, not want our markets,
0:25:21 > 0:25:23not want our money.
0:25:23 > 0:25:25The people that would hurt most would be German car manufacturers,
0:25:25 > 0:25:28French wine producers.
0:25:28 > 0:25:31I'll tell you what the EU really needs more than anything
0:25:31 > 0:25:40and that's our market.
0:25:40 > 0:25:42Now there is an assumption that all this deal-making with the EU
0:25:42 > 0:25:45basically comes down to money
0:25:45 > 0:25:49and that the Germans will be pushing hard for a good deal to sell
0:25:49 > 0:25:50us more and more cars.
0:25:50 > 0:25:52But to think that would be to fundamentally misunderstand
0:25:52 > 0:25:59Germany and its attitude to the EU.
0:25:59 > 0:26:01Hitler's march across Europe and the horror that followed
0:26:01 > 0:26:05still loom large in European minds.
0:26:05 > 0:26:10The EU was born out of the ashes of World War 2.
0:26:10 > 0:26:16EU unity symbolises democracy and security here.
0:26:16 > 0:26:22For Germany it was a chance for a new start
0:26:22 > 0:26:25We tend to underestimate in Britain the importance and the way
0:26:25 > 0:26:30in which Europe and the EU is part of the German DNA, part
0:26:30 > 0:26:32of the European DNA.
0:26:32 > 0:26:34It was a way back for Germany into respectability after the horrors
0:26:34 > 0:26:36of the Second World War.
0:26:36 > 0:26:39So this idea that of course the Germans are going to push
0:26:39 > 0:26:41for a favourable deal for the United Kingdom
0:26:41 > 0:26:44because they want to sell us lots of cars, what do
0:26:44 > 0:26:45you make of that?
0:26:45 > 0:26:48But they are not standing up and saying to the German government,
0:26:48 > 0:26:52"we must have access to the British market."
0:26:52 > 0:26:54What they're saying is, if you, the German government, have
0:26:54 > 0:26:57decided that the unity of the EU27 is more important than access
0:26:57 > 0:27:00to the UK market, so be it, and we will live with that.
0:27:00 > 0:27:05Contemplating the future of EU/UK relations, I keep coming
0:27:05 > 0:27:08back to the unknowns.
0:27:08 > 0:27:10What will a deal look like?
0:27:10 > 0:27:12How long will it take to agree?
0:27:12 > 0:27:18What happens if it all falls apart?
0:27:18 > 0:27:20Be under no illusions.
0:27:20 > 0:27:23If we don't get those deals, and if we dont get that agreement,
0:27:23 > 0:27:27whilst everyone will suffer, Britain will be a lot worse off
0:27:27 > 0:27:33than our former European partners.
0:27:33 > 0:27:35They have very many options for them than we do.
0:27:35 > 0:27:39The European Union - its single market -
0:27:39 > 0:27:42is the largest single export market for British goods and services -
0:27:42 > 0:27:49it's where 50% of our exports go.
0:27:49 > 0:27:52In the UK, many see Brexit as an exciting chance
0:27:52 > 0:27:54for new beginnings, whereas Brussels is convinced this is
0:27:54 > 0:27:58a lose-lose scenario for everybody.
0:27:58 > 0:28:02The warning here to the UK is stark.
0:28:02 > 0:28:04There'll be little cake left on the plate after Brexit,
0:28:04 > 0:28:14just a lot of salt and vinegar.
0:28:15 > 0:28:18The election has made everything less clear but has what the UK wants
0:28:18 > 0:28:24out of Brexit really changed?
0:28:24 > 0:28:27There are plenty who think the UK should strike a Brexit deal that
0:28:27 > 0:28:28secures control over immigration
0:28:28 > 0:28:30but, for others, trade and the economy comes first,
0:28:30 > 0:28:36even if it means easy access for EU workers to UK jobs.
0:28:36 > 0:28:38The referendum was about whether to leave the EU,
0:28:38 > 0:28:40not how to leave.
0:28:40 > 0:28:42You went through that referendum and the recent election
0:28:42 > 0:28:45and you possibly thought that was it, all decided.
0:28:45 > 0:28:48But it isn't.
0:28:48 > 0:28:51Goodnight.