0:00:04 > 0:00:08We all like to tell ourselves that when faced with life's big decisions
0:00:08 > 0:00:10we'll rely on our head rather than follow our heart.
0:00:12 > 0:00:15But do we, and indeed can we?
0:00:15 > 0:00:18Many scientists think that when making our big choices,
0:00:18 > 0:00:22a whole range of psychological, emotional, neurological,
0:00:22 > 0:00:25environmental conditions come into play.
0:00:25 > 0:00:27So with the referendum approaching,
0:00:27 > 0:00:32how will the campaigns use that knowledge, to get inside your head?
0:00:32 > 0:00:35We're all driven by both heart and head, but the heart tends
0:00:35 > 0:00:39to be in the driving seat much more than people imagine.
0:00:39 > 0:00:42We often think of positive and negative emotions as just opposites
0:00:42 > 0:00:45of each other so if you feel good then you must not feel bad.
0:00:45 > 0:00:47In fact, it really doesn't work that way at all.
0:00:47 > 0:00:51We were trying to find out if there was a difference between
0:00:51 > 0:00:53what you said and what your body showed.
0:00:53 > 0:00:58'The SNP are trying to tell us, that if we vote for independence...'
0:00:58 > 0:01:01For the negative campaign you can see that she is bored.
0:01:01 > 0:01:04Have you heard the expression on the internet, TL;DR?
0:01:04 > 0:01:07- No.- It stands for "Too long; didn't read."
0:01:07 > 0:01:10You really want to pinpoint the voters whose opinions
0:01:10 > 0:01:13or behaviours can be shaped over the course of a campaign.
0:01:16 > 0:01:20We're emotional beings. Emotions drive much of what we do
0:01:20 > 0:01:24and if we think about politics, politics really is about emotions.
0:01:24 > 0:01:28Our real enemies are among us. They are born without imagination.
0:01:28 > 0:01:31I don't think we've ever really seen a campaign
0:01:31 > 0:01:33quite as starkly presented as hope versus fear
0:01:33 > 0:01:35as we have in this referendum.
0:01:44 > 0:01:48You may not have been aware of it, but for the last two years
0:01:48 > 0:01:50the people of Scotland have been subjected to one of the most
0:01:50 > 0:01:54sophisticated political campaigns ever conducted,
0:01:54 > 0:01:57one in which both sides have adopted the very latest techniques
0:01:57 > 0:02:00to find out what you intend to do come September.
0:02:01 > 0:02:04And sometimes they think they know what you'll do
0:02:04 > 0:02:06even before you know yourself.
0:02:07 > 0:02:12Applying psychology to influence the way we behave isn't exactly new.
0:02:12 > 0:02:16Places like this have been doing it for years.
0:02:16 > 0:02:18Everything from the lighting,
0:02:18 > 0:02:20to the sounds, to the smell of fresh bread,
0:02:20 > 0:02:24they're all designed to make you want to shop.
0:02:24 > 0:02:27Now politics is starting to catch up.
0:02:29 > 0:02:33It won't come as a great surprise, perhaps, when I tell you
0:02:33 > 0:02:36that the science of examining folk's political brains
0:02:36 > 0:02:38has its origin in the USA.
0:02:38 > 0:02:42There, during the 2004 Bush-Kerry presidential race,
0:02:42 > 0:02:46Professor Drew Westen of Emory University came up with the idea
0:02:46 > 0:02:49of putting people's heads in an FMRI scanner
0:02:49 > 0:02:52to see how they reacted to political messages.
0:02:52 > 0:02:57What he found was startling and set him off on a whole new career.
0:02:57 > 0:02:58He's now a best-selling author
0:02:58 > 0:03:02and one of the world's most sought after political consultants.
0:03:02 > 0:03:05So what did he find back in 2004?
0:03:05 > 0:03:07Who'll be voting for John Kerry?
0:03:07 > 0:03:11'We had partisans on both sides who were very, very strong partisans.
0:03:11 > 0:03:13'We presented them with a reasoning task.'
0:03:13 > 0:03:15It was pretty straightforward.
0:03:15 > 0:03:17They first saw a slide and listened to it that, you know,
0:03:17 > 0:03:21had the candidate saying one thing, then they had
0:03:21 > 0:03:23either the candidate or someone else
0:03:23 > 0:03:26saying something that completely contradicted it and we asked them,
0:03:26 > 0:03:28"Are these things contradictory?"
0:03:28 > 0:03:30It's a straightforward task, you would think.
0:03:30 > 0:03:34We found no reasoning going on at all.
0:03:34 > 0:03:37Kerry supporters all found Kerry's remarks
0:03:37 > 0:03:40completely consistent, non-problematic.
0:03:40 > 0:03:45Bush supporters all found his remarks completely non-problematic.
0:03:45 > 0:03:48And it wasn't until about 20 seconds later,
0:03:48 > 0:03:52that we started to see the activation of reason circuits.
0:03:52 > 0:03:56And what we hypothesised was going on was people were starting
0:03:56 > 0:03:59to rationalise the conclusions that they wanted to come to.
0:04:04 > 0:04:08Since 2004, it's been quite de rigueur for political scientists
0:04:08 > 0:04:10to put folk's heads in MRI scanners
0:04:10 > 0:04:14to see what's going on inside the political brain.
0:04:14 > 0:04:16Among them, Professor James Fowler
0:04:16 > 0:04:20of the University of California, San Diego.
0:04:20 > 0:04:22They'll put you in a brain scanner
0:04:22 > 0:04:24and they can predict how you're going to decide on something
0:04:24 > 0:04:26before you are even aware of it,
0:04:26 > 0:04:29because they can see that the other parts of your brain
0:04:29 > 0:04:31besides the part that involves conscious thought
0:04:31 > 0:04:35have already sort of moved in a way that helps us to know
0:04:35 > 0:04:40that you chose A instead of B, you chose Yes instead of No
0:04:40 > 0:04:44on a question, and I think if we put a lot of people in the scanner
0:04:44 > 0:04:46and asked them, "Are you going to vote Yes or No?",
0:04:46 > 0:04:49we would be able to make that prediction for them,
0:04:49 > 0:04:50before they're even aware of it.
0:04:57 > 0:05:01So just how much control do we have over our political brain?
0:05:01 > 0:05:03Is it, as Paul Simon once said,
0:05:03 > 0:05:07that a man hears what he wants to hear and disregards the rest?
0:05:08 > 0:05:12To find out, we invited Mindlab International, whose clients
0:05:12 > 0:05:16number some of the world's biggest multinational companies as well
0:05:16 > 0:05:20as various political organisations to run a series of tests on Sarah,
0:05:20 > 0:05:24the most convincing undecided voter we could lay our hands on.
0:05:24 > 0:05:27So what is her subconscious self telling her
0:05:27 > 0:05:30about what she really wants from September's referendum?
0:05:31 > 0:05:34So what's going on here?
0:05:34 > 0:05:37This is the cap that's going to measure Sarah's brain activity.
0:05:37 > 0:05:43So each of these little things sewn into the cap are electrodes
0:05:43 > 0:05:46which are going to pick up changes in voltage, tiny, tiny
0:05:46 > 0:05:51changes in voltage, that occur when neurons are firing in her brain.
0:05:51 > 0:05:54So what we're doing is just, putting conductive gel in,
0:05:54 > 0:05:57to bridge the gap between the electrode and the scalp.
0:05:57 > 0:06:00You can look at things like, how much conscious
0:06:00 > 0:06:04and effortful attention Sarah will be paying to the campaign messages.
0:06:04 > 0:06:09You can look at how motivated with sort of positive
0:06:09 > 0:06:11motivation she feels towards what she's looking at as well.
0:06:11 > 0:06:13If we hadn't explained this to people,
0:06:13 > 0:06:15we'd be sticking it into her brain.
0:06:15 > 0:06:20I know. Got to explain that otherwise our boss will get angry!
0:06:20 > 0:06:23You've got things to put on Sarah's fingers as well.
0:06:23 > 0:06:25Yes, so these are two electrodes,
0:06:25 > 0:06:30which are going to measure Sarah's skin conductance, which is basically
0:06:30 > 0:06:34a measure of stress or sort of physiological arousal, emotion,
0:06:34 > 0:06:40excitement, so it's automatic, you know, you can't control it.
0:06:40 > 0:06:44Sarah's also been fitted with an eye-tracker, so we can see
0:06:44 > 0:06:48exactly what she watches most closely during the experiments.
0:06:48 > 0:06:52So we get a moment-by-moment picture of where she's looking,
0:06:52 > 0:06:55how she's feeling and how her body and her brain are responding.
0:06:55 > 0:06:59OK, Sarah, all you have to do is sit and watch telly for a few minutes.
0:06:59 > 0:07:03While Sarah is watching a series of messages from both campaigns,
0:07:03 > 0:07:08the skull cap, the finger sensors and the eye tracker will record
0:07:08 > 0:07:12just how engaged her subconscious is with what she's hearing and seeing.
0:07:13 > 0:07:15'We're voting Yes for independence
0:07:15 > 0:07:18'because we want to see a more equal society.'
0:07:18 > 0:07:24'I want Scotland to be leading world industry, I want to see us on top.'
0:07:24 > 0:07:29'Scotland will be able to play a better part in terms of building
0:07:29 > 0:07:31'a fairer and more just world.'
0:07:31 > 0:07:33'And I'm voting Yes for my children.
0:07:33 > 0:07:35'Because I want them to grow up in a country
0:07:35 > 0:07:38'that's self-sufficient in two of the most precious commodities
0:07:38 > 0:07:42'of the 21st century and that's clean water and clean energy.'
0:07:42 > 0:07:45'What I want to know is,
0:07:45 > 0:07:49'what have the Scottish Nationalists got in mind for my pension?'
0:07:49 > 0:07:52'As a Scottish rugby fan, I like to see the English getting stuffed
0:07:52 > 0:07:54'as much as the next Scotsman
0:07:54 > 0:07:58'but I think we have more shared history and shared culture,
0:07:58 > 0:08:03'over the last few hundred years than separates us.'
0:08:03 > 0:08:06'We're telling the rest of the UK that we don't want to be
0:08:06 > 0:08:09'part of the same country as them any more, but we want to keep the
0:08:09 > 0:08:12'same currency, that's just doesn't make... It's not logical to me.'
0:08:12 > 0:08:14'The SNP are trying to tell us that
0:08:14 > 0:08:18'if we vote for independence we'd automatically go into some
0:08:18 > 0:08:21'sort of Eurozone-style currency union with the rest of the UK.'
0:08:23 > 0:08:24We'll find out a little later
0:08:24 > 0:08:27what Sarah's subconscious self was communicating.
0:08:27 > 0:08:31But according to Dr Rob Johns of the University of Essex,
0:08:31 > 0:08:35we really aren't the head-over-heart rational political thinkers
0:08:35 > 0:08:36we'd like to think we are.
0:08:36 > 0:08:40We're all driven by both heart and head but the heart tends
0:08:40 > 0:08:43to be in the driving seat much more than people imagine.
0:08:43 > 0:08:48We are, as human beings, programmed or hard-wired as they put it,
0:08:48 > 0:08:50to react to our emotions and one of the reasons for that is
0:08:50 > 0:08:54because rational calculation is immensely arduous.
0:08:54 > 0:08:57I mean, anybody who sat down and tried to work out the pros
0:08:57 > 0:09:00and cons of independence would need a Excel spreadsheet,
0:09:00 > 0:09:03a lot of time and a great deal of patience.
0:09:03 > 0:09:06Some people might fondly imagine that they are
0:09:06 > 0:09:10rational calculators. They're kidding themselves.
0:09:11 > 0:09:13And just to prove the point,
0:09:13 > 0:09:17later on Dr Johns will conduct a fun experiment involving random BBC
0:09:17 > 0:09:22employees, a verruca, a tarantula and a referendum ballot box.
0:09:22 > 0:09:25But it seems there are plenty of other neuro-scientific
0:09:25 > 0:09:28tests taking place around this referendum.
0:09:28 > 0:09:31Here at the University of Edinburgh, Professor Laura Cram
0:09:31 > 0:09:34and her team are conducting a whole range of experiments
0:09:34 > 0:09:40from online surveys to full FMRI scanning to see what parts emotion
0:09:40 > 0:09:44and national identity are playing in our decision making process.
0:09:44 > 0:09:50Some of our early work showed very much that in a short term,
0:09:50 > 0:09:53showing a flag as people are answering a question
0:09:53 > 0:09:57has an effect on their understanding of the questions
0:09:57 > 0:09:59and it changes their answers.
0:10:02 > 0:10:04In this online survey, a small,
0:10:04 > 0:10:08seemingly innocuous union flag or a Saltire is shown
0:10:08 > 0:10:11on the photograph of Edinburgh's skyline before each question.
0:10:11 > 0:10:16But it had an effect far greater than its actual size.
0:10:16 > 0:10:18If you were shown one flag you gave a different
0:10:18 > 0:10:21answer from the group that was shown the other flags.
0:10:21 > 0:10:25But what you definitely can see is in the short term, being exposed
0:10:25 > 0:10:29to different contexts and in that case it was as simple as, simply
0:10:29 > 0:10:32a different flag in front of you as you were answering some questions,
0:10:32 > 0:10:35it can really make a difference to the kind of answers you make.
0:10:35 > 0:10:36In the end then,
0:10:36 > 0:10:40do we really actually have a choice or is it all hard wired up here?
0:10:40 > 0:10:43I do think we do have a choice, but what we're trying to do is
0:10:43 > 0:10:47find out what elements might affect those choices
0:10:47 > 0:10:50and what might you have to watch out for when you're making a choice.
0:10:50 > 0:10:53It's really fascinating, it brings a whole set of new tools for us,
0:10:53 > 0:10:56to begin to understand some old questions we've been asking,
0:10:56 > 0:10:59is it the heart, is it the head,
0:10:59 > 0:11:02do we react emotionally, do we react rationally?
0:11:02 > 0:11:05It's not as clear as we think.
0:11:07 > 0:11:10National flags can be very emotive symbols
0:11:10 > 0:11:12and although identity politics has barely featured
0:11:12 > 0:11:16in our referendum, there is one place where national identity
0:11:16 > 0:11:19has dominated not one but two independence referendums.
0:11:20 > 0:11:22Quebec.
0:11:24 > 0:11:27This is about language and culture first and foremost.
0:11:27 > 0:11:30This is very much a French-English thing in Quebec, you know.
0:11:30 > 0:11:32Quebec is seven million French speakers
0:11:32 > 0:11:37and 300 and some million English speakers in north America so,
0:11:37 > 0:11:42there's a large consensus here that French needs legislative protection.
0:11:45 > 0:11:48Michel Auger is a journalist and broadcaster
0:11:48 > 0:11:52with CBC in Montreal and he's seen just how quickly
0:11:52 > 0:11:55emotion can trump rational argument in these debates.
0:11:57 > 0:12:00The No side in the first referendum played fear very much,
0:12:00 > 0:12:04economic fear, especially among old people and all that,
0:12:04 > 0:12:06so the Yes side spent a lot of time
0:12:06 > 0:12:08in the years between the two referendums
0:12:08 > 0:12:11saying, "Oh, you have nothing to fear, we'll use the Canadian dollar,
0:12:11 > 0:12:15"you cannot force us to give up Canadian dollars,
0:12:15 > 0:12:18"we'll use Canadian dollars.
0:12:18 > 0:12:21"We'll, you know, we will keep things,
0:12:21 > 0:12:24"you can keep double citizenship if you want."
0:12:24 > 0:12:25What buttons, if you like,
0:12:25 > 0:12:28did the two campaigns try to press with voters?
0:12:28 > 0:12:31On the Yes side this was a very positive project,
0:12:31 > 0:12:34"You're going to vote Yes, going to make a new country,
0:12:34 > 0:12:37"this is, this is positive, we're going to do great things."
0:12:37 > 0:12:40And on the No side, "I'm going to lose my country."
0:12:40 > 0:12:42Just as strong an emotion.
0:12:42 > 0:12:46Quebec's links to Scotland are as strong as they are long.
0:12:46 > 0:12:48McGill University was founded by a Scot
0:12:48 > 0:12:53almost 200 years ago, and recently Edinburgh University Principal,
0:12:53 > 0:12:55Professor Sir Timothy O'Shea, was in Montreal
0:12:55 > 0:12:59to present the university with a ceremonial silver mace.
0:12:59 > 0:13:02Professor Antonia Maioni from McGill's
0:13:02 > 0:13:05Department of Political Science has spent years
0:13:05 > 0:13:07analysing Quebec's referendums.
0:13:07 > 0:13:11Well, like any election campaign, or any campaign, you're going
0:13:11 > 0:13:13to have all kinds of psychological buttons being pushed.
0:13:13 > 0:13:16Certainly in the referendum campaigns that we saw,
0:13:16 > 0:13:19the No side worked from the issue of fear.
0:13:19 > 0:13:23The idea of, the fear of separating from a country,
0:13:23 > 0:13:25that was a player in the world stage,
0:13:25 > 0:13:27that was an economic powerhouse,
0:13:27 > 0:13:29"How would we be able to keep our pensions,
0:13:29 > 0:13:31"our health care services?"
0:13:31 > 0:13:34All kinds of things that people had come to rely on in Quebec,
0:13:34 > 0:13:36so there was a lot of that mixed in.
0:13:36 > 0:13:38Did any one issue prove decisive?
0:13:38 > 0:13:42We've sort of tried to analyse what happened in that
0:13:42 > 0:13:44particular campaign, and what's really interesting is
0:13:44 > 0:13:49the way that the Yes side of the campaign was able to play on
0:13:49 > 0:13:55an emotional outpouring, but also this positive energy surrounding
0:13:55 > 0:13:59the independence movement and surrounding the independence option.
0:13:59 > 0:14:01It was a theme that appealed to the left,
0:14:01 > 0:14:05it was a theme that appealed to young Quebecers especially.
0:14:05 > 0:14:07There was a lot of support.
0:14:19 > 0:14:22But emotional coercion wasn't the sole preserve
0:14:22 > 0:14:23of the Yes campaign.
0:14:23 > 0:14:25Far from it.
0:14:25 > 0:14:29It was a pretty civilised campaign until, basically
0:14:29 > 0:14:32until the last weekend when all hell broke loose.
0:14:33 > 0:14:35At one point, when the federal government
0:14:35 > 0:14:38sort of saw that they were going to lose this one,
0:14:38 > 0:14:42a number of ministers got together and organised what became
0:14:42 > 0:14:46known as The Love In, so they flew people from all over Canada
0:14:46 > 0:14:49and people came in cars and buses and everything, to, Place Du Canada
0:14:49 > 0:14:51here in Montreal, to say,
0:14:51 > 0:14:54"Basically we love Quebec, we don't want you to go."
0:15:06 > 0:15:09It seems The Love-In worked as Quebecers decided
0:15:09 > 0:15:13to stay Canadian, by the thinnest of thin margins.
0:15:14 > 0:15:17It was literally 50.5 to 49.5,
0:15:17 > 0:15:20so it was 60,000 votes difference. It was literally nothing.
0:15:22 > 0:15:25There may well be a Love-In down Leith Walk
0:15:25 > 0:15:27planned for the coming weeks, who knows?
0:15:27 > 0:15:30But what we can say is that those same emotional buttons
0:15:30 > 0:15:33that were pushed in Quebec are being pushed by both sides
0:15:33 > 0:15:36in our referendum campaign.
0:15:36 > 0:15:39I've come to Ardrossan to meet the most important people in this
0:15:39 > 0:15:43campaign, because the ones who've always been going to vote Yes
0:15:43 > 0:15:44are already in the bag.
0:15:44 > 0:15:48Similarly the ones who've always been going to vote No.
0:15:48 > 0:15:50It's the undecideds who are up for grabs.
0:15:50 > 0:15:54So what do the two campaigns have to do, to win their hearts and minds?
0:15:57 > 0:16:02When you make a decision will it be your head or your heart that rules?
0:16:03 > 0:16:06I think at will finish up, it'll be my head.
0:16:06 > 0:16:08My head that makes it.
0:16:08 > 0:16:12My heart's got a lot to do with it, you know the feelings, etc,
0:16:12 > 0:16:16but in the end it'll be my head that makes the decision.
0:16:16 > 0:16:20Do you think that inside there's a possibility you might already
0:16:20 > 0:16:22have made the decision, you just don't know it yet?
0:16:22 > 0:16:25Not really. Not really.
0:16:28 > 0:16:32How do you think you're going to make your decision in this
0:16:32 > 0:16:35referendum, is it going to be with your, your head or with your heart?
0:16:35 > 0:16:38Definitely my head.
0:16:38 > 0:16:44So when the campaigns are trying to win your vote, which bit,
0:16:44 > 0:16:46head or heart, are they going to have to reach out for?
0:16:46 > 0:16:51The head. Definitely the head.
0:16:51 > 0:16:52The UK's not OK.
0:16:52 > 0:16:55There is no certainty, there is no certainty
0:16:55 > 0:16:57in voting for the status quo.
0:16:57 > 0:17:01Our real enemies are among us. They are born without imagination.
0:17:01 > 0:17:02Thank you.
0:17:02 > 0:17:05One notable feature of this campaign has been
0:17:05 > 0:17:09the revival of the old-fashioned public meeting.
0:17:09 > 0:17:12Most of these meetings have been organised by Yes Scotland,
0:17:12 > 0:17:16whose chief strategist Stephen Noon dismisses suggestions
0:17:16 > 0:17:19that they're simply preaching to the converted.
0:17:19 > 0:17:21Public meetings are a very important part of the campaign
0:17:21 > 0:17:24cos it creates that sense of energy,
0:17:24 > 0:17:27a focal point in excitement essentially, and also it's a
0:17:27 > 0:17:31way of getting information, crucial information, out into the community.
0:17:31 > 0:17:34Everybody who's at the meeting will talk to two, three,
0:17:34 > 0:17:37four other people about it, and so it's an opportunity just to
0:17:37 > 0:17:39spread the message into the community.
0:17:39 > 0:17:42There's always a good chunk of undecideds at the meeting,
0:17:42 > 0:17:44and they will then go back into the community
0:17:44 > 0:17:47and talk about their experience and so hopefully it's a good experience.
0:17:47 > 0:17:51But according to Better Together's Campaign Director Blair MacDougall,
0:17:51 > 0:17:54not every undecided voter in this campaign is finding
0:17:54 > 0:17:57being on the fence a particularly enjoyable experience.
0:17:57 > 0:18:00I'm here as part of the Better Together Campaign which is
0:18:00 > 0:18:02part of the campaign to keep...
0:18:02 > 0:18:05One of the interesting things about this referendum
0:18:05 > 0:18:07though is that we are finding some voters who feel
0:18:07 > 0:18:10overwhelmed by the scale of the decision they have to make
0:18:10 > 0:18:13and that, that feeling of, of this being almost too big
0:18:13 > 0:18:17a decision for me to make, is causing a small number of voters
0:18:17 > 0:18:21to say that they won't take part in the referendum, but actually
0:18:21 > 0:18:25the traditional sort of, you know, you know, almost majority of people
0:18:25 > 0:18:28who are, who are sort of scunnered with politics, doesn't really
0:18:28 > 0:18:31exist in this referendum, people are really engaging in this debate.
0:18:31 > 0:18:34Well, folks thanks for being here, I know it's the middle,
0:18:34 > 0:18:36I know it's the middle of the afternoon
0:18:36 > 0:18:39so it's nice of you to come out in the sunshine.
0:18:39 > 0:18:41Glad the sun's out, kept the rain away.
0:18:41 > 0:18:43Some of the kids are here...
0:18:43 > 0:18:48This attempt to engage directly with the electorate mirrors what's
0:18:48 > 0:18:51been happening in American politics in recent years.
0:18:51 > 0:18:53I'm actually undecided.
0:18:53 > 0:18:56It seems traditional grassroots campaigning, or ground war,
0:18:56 > 0:19:00where activists go door to door, street to street to sell their
0:19:00 > 0:19:04message, is back, while the days of air war, which relies primarily
0:19:04 > 0:19:07on the media and on politicians to spread the message is on the wane.
0:19:10 > 0:19:14Sasha Issenberg was a journalist with The Boston Globe
0:19:14 > 0:19:17assigned to cover the 2012 US Presidential election.
0:19:17 > 0:19:19He's also the author of a bestselling book
0:19:19 > 0:19:23The Victory Lab: The Science Of Winning Campaigns.
0:19:24 > 0:19:28The purely air war campaigns tend to be incredibly superficial
0:19:28 > 0:19:31and incredibly empty and I think we have reason to think that
0:19:31 > 0:19:34voters are very good at tuning them out.
0:19:34 > 0:19:37We have, we've seen a sort of renaissance of what
0:19:37 > 0:19:39seems like very old-fashioned campaigning methods
0:19:39 > 0:19:42in the United States in the last 15, 20 years.
0:19:42 > 0:19:44The Obama campaign made,
0:19:44 > 0:19:47they put plenty of money on TV of course, but, they also made
0:19:47 > 0:19:50unprecedented investments in creating the infrastructure
0:19:50 > 0:19:54to have volunteers go door to door and talk to voters there.
0:19:54 > 0:19:58The return to old-school campaigning may be welcome
0:19:58 > 0:20:00but as James Mitchell, professor of public policy
0:20:00 > 0:20:03at Edinburgh University points out, for at least one
0:20:03 > 0:20:07of the protagonists in this fight, it's born out of necessity.
0:20:07 > 0:20:11In this campaign we've got a very interesting situation in which
0:20:11 > 0:20:15one side, the Yes side, seem to have far more people on the ground
0:20:15 > 0:20:17knocking on doors, and so on and so forth.
0:20:17 > 0:20:21Now, because the No campaign, have got such overwhelming support
0:20:21 > 0:20:25in the media, they are heavily reliant on that, and indeed their
0:20:25 > 0:20:28whole campaign strategy appears to take account of that great
0:20:28 > 0:20:32strength, as would indeed the Yes campaign if they had that support.
0:20:32 > 0:20:35So again we've got an interesting contrast
0:20:35 > 0:20:37in these two different campaigns.
0:20:37 > 0:20:41It very much is the case of, a ground war versus an air war,
0:20:41 > 0:20:44to an extent that we rarely see in politics.
0:20:44 > 0:20:47I said it was unlikely that an independent Scotland would be
0:20:47 > 0:20:51able to share the pound and share the Bank of England...
0:20:51 > 0:20:53Of course Better Together would argue
0:20:53 > 0:20:55that the use of the UK government machine
0:20:55 > 0:20:58and the overwhelming majority of the press in an air war
0:20:58 > 0:21:00isn't to instil fear
0:21:00 > 0:21:04but is simply to cast doubt on the arguments of their opponents.
0:21:04 > 0:21:07Consequently the Yes campaign has been forced to adopt a far more
0:21:07 > 0:21:09grassroots approach to try to persuade
0:21:09 > 0:21:12and reassure voters about independence.
0:21:14 > 0:21:17There's no doubt the No campaign are dominant
0:21:17 > 0:21:20within traditional places like Parliament.
0:21:20 > 0:21:22You know, they can get committees coming out
0:21:22 > 0:21:24with these big heavyweight reports
0:21:24 > 0:21:27and they're dominant in things like the London based media.
0:21:27 > 0:21:29Our dominance is face to face,
0:21:29 > 0:21:34spreading support through social communication.
0:21:34 > 0:21:35So the sense that, you know,
0:21:35 > 0:21:40you speaking to your best friends or to your cousins or to your work
0:21:40 > 0:21:44colleagues is a far more powerful way of communicating something,
0:21:44 > 0:21:46because they've got a degree of trust in you
0:21:46 > 0:21:50built up not over five minutes but over many, many years
0:21:50 > 0:21:52and so they're able to assess what you say to them
0:21:52 > 0:21:55in a very different way from how they assess,
0:21:55 > 0:21:57as I said, newspaper headlines
0:21:57 > 0:21:59or what appears out of a politician's mouth.
0:22:03 > 0:22:07Another American scientific import to our referendum campaign
0:22:07 > 0:22:08is micro-targeting.
0:22:08 > 0:22:11Tuesday is our primary and I was wondering
0:22:11 > 0:22:14if President Obama can count on your support.
0:22:14 > 0:22:17Now, for the first time political campaigns can engage
0:22:17 > 0:22:21the electorate as individuals rather than as a large group.
0:22:21 > 0:22:25Micro-targeting sorts through these combined data sets to
0:22:25 > 0:22:28try to come up with individualised predictions of,
0:22:28 > 0:22:31of how individuals will behave in politics.
0:22:31 > 0:22:34And then you really want to pinpoint the voters whose opinions,
0:22:34 > 0:22:38or behaviours can be shaped over the course of the campaign.
0:22:38 > 0:22:41Micro-targeting has been credited with helping get Obama
0:22:41 > 0:22:44re-elected in 2012.
0:22:44 > 0:22:48I think this has a huge impact at the margins, in close races,
0:22:48 > 0:22:52I think it could be decisive.
0:22:53 > 0:22:55It's a technique both campaigns have adopted
0:22:55 > 0:22:59but Better Together reckon they have pulled off a major coup.
0:22:59 > 0:23:02We've got the company who were behind Obama's
0:23:02 > 0:23:05sort of technological wizardry, working for us,
0:23:05 > 0:23:09a company called Blue State Digital, so all of the electronic tools,
0:23:09 > 0:23:12all of the data tools that they had, we now have.
0:23:12 > 0:23:14What have you done to,
0:23:14 > 0:23:17if you like, paint a picture of the referendum electorate?
0:23:17 > 0:23:21We do really in-depth, large-scale polling.
0:23:21 > 0:23:24I think just to get the full picture of the electorate,
0:23:24 > 0:23:28it sometimes takes an hour for our pollsters to get through
0:23:28 > 0:23:31the whole questionnaire with undecided voters,
0:23:31 > 0:23:36so we use 400 different pieces of publicly available data,
0:23:36 > 0:23:41information from house prices, from credit ratings all that
0:23:41 > 0:23:43sort of thing, to try to build a picture
0:23:43 > 0:23:45of who individual voters are,
0:23:45 > 0:23:48because opinion polls will give you a sense of where the entire
0:23:48 > 0:23:52electorate is, it'll tell you where people are likely to be in certain
0:23:52 > 0:23:55demographic groups, but it doesn't tell you anything about individual
0:23:55 > 0:23:59voters, about the person who opens the door when you knock the door.
0:24:02 > 0:24:04Hi there, sir, sorry to bother you....
0:24:04 > 0:24:06The most important decision a campaign makes is
0:24:06 > 0:24:07who not to talk to.
0:24:07 > 0:24:11If people are definitely going to vote and very likely to
0:24:11 > 0:24:14vote for you already you don't want to waste any time on them,
0:24:14 > 0:24:17and if people are never going to vote, or, are very likely to
0:24:17 > 0:24:19vote for your opponent
0:24:19 > 0:24:21you don't want to waste any time on them either.
0:24:21 > 0:24:23So figuring out how to sort of sort through
0:24:23 > 0:24:27an electorate of several million people intelligently so that the
0:24:27 > 0:24:30volunteers you do have are going to the right neighbourhoods even
0:24:30 > 0:24:36or the right blocks, there are ways to prioritise that through data.
0:24:36 > 0:24:38They might not be at the individual level,
0:24:38 > 0:24:41it might not be at the household level, but can help campaigns
0:24:41 > 0:24:44make sure that the resources that they're already allocating are
0:24:44 > 0:24:46going to places where they'll have a real impact.
0:24:46 > 0:24:49America's the Premier League for elections in a sense
0:24:49 > 0:24:52and a lot of the technologies and techniques are trialled
0:24:52 > 0:24:55there first so we look to what happens in the States, so it's not
0:24:55 > 0:24:58just Barack Obama and his campaign, it's actually just the whole
0:24:58 > 0:25:01range of electoral development that takes place in America.
0:25:02 > 0:25:06Perhaps ironically, advances in computing science have given
0:25:06 > 0:25:09a political advantage to the ground war campaigns,
0:25:09 > 0:25:12by returning the political agenda to the grass roots,
0:25:12 > 0:25:15in a way that would have been unthinkable even ten years ago.
0:25:15 > 0:25:19When you look at the politics of protest for example, one thing that
0:25:19 > 0:25:24it's made easier is coordination, we're much better able to
0:25:24 > 0:25:27meet in the same square now, so you think about the Arab Spring
0:25:27 > 0:25:30for example, many of those protests were enabled by Twitter, because
0:25:30 > 0:25:34everybody knew that everybody else was in Tahrir Square, for example.
0:25:34 > 0:25:37Let's go back now to our top story and the extraordinary scenes on the
0:25:37 > 0:25:40streets of Cairo and Alexandria this lunchtime as hundreds of thousands
0:25:40 > 0:25:44of people gather for what's being called the millennium man march.
0:25:44 > 0:25:47Let's go back now to Cairo.
0:25:47 > 0:25:49There hasn't been a demonstration like this in 60 years
0:25:49 > 0:25:52where people haven't had the slogans handed out to them,
0:25:52 > 0:25:55haven't been told the kind of things that they ought to be saying,
0:25:55 > 0:25:59and the kind of opinions that they ought to want,
0:25:59 > 0:26:03and there's nobody to stop them saying anything they want.
0:26:03 > 0:26:07But aside from scale and the ability to coordinate massive
0:26:07 > 0:26:11protests, I think a lot of what's going on now is very similar
0:26:11 > 0:26:14to things that we saw in the past.
0:26:14 > 0:26:17The influence of Facebook and Twitter
0:26:17 > 0:26:20can be seen everywhere in this campaign.
0:26:20 > 0:26:23Professor Fowler is an expert on how social media can influence
0:26:23 > 0:26:27political decision-making, and how modern campaigns must
0:26:27 > 0:26:31tailor their messages to suit this new era of political communication.
0:26:31 > 0:26:32So we've got you here,
0:26:32 > 0:26:35we really can't let the opportunity pass by to show you
0:26:35 > 0:26:38some of the, the campaign literature from both sides of the argument.
0:26:38 > 0:26:40Oh, my goodness.
0:26:40 > 0:26:44So, have you, have you heard the expression on the internet, TL;DR?
0:26:44 > 0:26:47- No.- It stands for "Too long; didn't read."
0:26:47 > 0:26:52So, there's pretty pictures here but I'm already losing interest.
0:26:52 > 0:26:55So, one of the things... They must have tested this, so maybe it
0:26:55 > 0:26:58works on certain people but one, one of the things especially,
0:26:58 > 0:27:01in our environment, one way social media has changed things is
0:27:01 > 0:27:06that we have become used to messages being packaged, in smaller bites.
0:27:06 > 0:27:08I can't imagine this being effective at all.
0:27:08 > 0:27:11I apologise to whoever created it but, you know,
0:27:11 > 0:27:15these kinds of messages with less words with nice pictures that convey
0:27:15 > 0:27:17immediately what you're doing, this right here jumps out at me.
0:27:17 > 0:27:20This is the one from Yes Scotland.
0:27:20 > 0:27:23So this is spectacular.
0:27:23 > 0:27:25Yes, right away I know these people are in favour of it.
0:27:25 > 0:27:29And there's what ten words there, "An independent Scotland would be
0:27:29 > 0:27:31"the most powerful nation in Europe."
0:27:31 > 0:27:33And then you've got a really
0:27:33 > 0:27:36nice visual that captured your attention of this shock going
0:27:36 > 0:27:38between your, your fingers like you've got the power in your hands.
0:27:38 > 0:27:40This is brilliant.
0:27:40 > 0:27:43This is... My intuition is that this kind of messaging
0:27:43 > 0:27:45is what works the best.
0:27:45 > 0:27:47And another thing, another reason
0:27:47 > 0:27:50why I think that this messaging works so well is, this is
0:27:50 > 0:27:54the kind of messaging that would not only potentially change your
0:27:54 > 0:27:58mind, but it might get you to talk about the campaign with friends.
0:27:58 > 0:28:02In our research with Facebook, when we tested messages, we found
0:28:02 > 0:28:04that Facebook was able to motivate an extra 60,000 people
0:28:04 > 0:28:08to go the polls in 2010, but those people got an extra
0:28:08 > 0:28:11280,000 of their friends to go the polls.
0:28:11 > 0:28:14And so, people don't listen to Facebook that much but they listen
0:28:14 > 0:28:17to their friends, so if you can change a small number of people in
0:28:17 > 0:28:21the first case, that might blossom into a very large number of people.
0:28:21 > 0:28:24"Let's do it together." This is, again it's from Better Together.
0:28:24 > 0:28:28So this is, a typical strategy where people tell stories
0:28:28 > 0:28:31and we all like to hear stories again,
0:28:31 > 0:28:34thinking about being around the campfire, this is the way
0:28:34 > 0:28:37we used to entertain one another for tens of thousands of years and
0:28:37 > 0:28:43so you have pictures of people, that are supposed to be people like me.
0:28:43 > 0:28:47And, I'm sure that they have done demographic targeting on
0:28:47 > 0:28:51what income levels these individuals are from,
0:28:51 > 0:28:54what ideology they're from, the clothes that they're wearing
0:28:54 > 0:28:57probably send off signals for what kinds of jobs they have,
0:28:57 > 0:28:59and so, one of the things that we know from social networks
0:28:59 > 0:29:04is that we are more influenced by people who are similar to us.
0:29:04 > 0:29:06And when someone's like you, you pay more attention to them,
0:29:06 > 0:29:10and you're more likely to do what they do, you're more likely to copy
0:29:10 > 0:29:13them and to take on their ideas, and this is not rocket science.
0:29:13 > 0:29:15These guys figured this out a long time ago,
0:29:15 > 0:29:17these political consultants but, what the science says is that,
0:29:17 > 0:29:21that this is really building on this fundamental tendency
0:29:21 > 0:29:24to try to connect to other people who are like us.
0:29:25 > 0:29:29So being as similar to the person you're trying to persuade
0:29:29 > 0:29:30seems to be the key
0:29:30 > 0:29:35but how many undecideds do they reckon there are still up for grabs?
0:29:35 > 0:29:38There were about a million voters, a year ago,
0:29:38 > 0:29:40it's probably about 800,000 now, who are really
0:29:40 > 0:29:44going to make the difference one way or another, in this referendum
0:29:44 > 0:29:47and those are the people that we go after relentlessly.
0:29:47 > 0:29:49'Hi. My name's Kirsty...'
0:29:49 > 0:29:52But few people who will vote in September will have
0:29:52 > 0:29:55had their innermost thoughts scrutinised in such
0:29:55 > 0:29:59detail as Sarah, our fully-committed undecided voter.
0:29:59 > 0:30:02With the help of a red-dot eye-tracker device, her subconscious
0:30:02 > 0:30:06political brain is being unlocked by Mindlab International.
0:30:07 > 0:30:09Is it possible, given all the caveats,
0:30:09 > 0:30:12this is not a big group, it's just a focus group of one
0:30:12 > 0:30:16if you like, what messages can we take away
0:30:16 > 0:30:20from how Sarah responded to these videos?
0:30:20 > 0:30:24For the third one, the Better Together negative campaign
0:30:24 > 0:30:27with Alastair Darling,
0:30:27 > 0:30:30you can see that she is bored,
0:30:30 > 0:30:33she was very, very bored for the first half of this message.
0:30:33 > 0:30:37Slight peak, somewhere in the middle, so she reacted to something,
0:30:37 > 0:30:43but then again, just went down so, I don't know whether you felt bored
0:30:43 > 0:30:48during that video but that's what your response looks like.
0:30:48 > 0:30:52Whereas with the Yes Scotland, negative message,
0:30:52 > 0:30:54you can see that this was quite effective,
0:30:54 > 0:30:57you can see that the overall trend is for her engagement to go up
0:30:57 > 0:30:59while she's watching it
0:30:59 > 0:31:01and there are quite a few little peaks there as well.
0:31:01 > 0:31:04Meanwhile, Juliane, you were looking at the eye tracking,
0:31:04 > 0:31:06what's that told us?
0:31:06 > 0:31:08For two out of these three,
0:31:08 > 0:31:12she focused more on the Better Together campaign,
0:31:12 > 0:31:16which kind of indicates she might be slightly more drawn towards these
0:31:16 > 0:31:19messages about union, yeah,
0:31:19 > 0:31:22Scotland as a part of a United Kingdom.
0:31:22 > 0:31:25It's quite interesting actually because what we did is we
0:31:25 > 0:31:30showed her images that either were part of the Yes Scotland campaign
0:31:30 > 0:31:32or the Better Together campaign.
0:31:32 > 0:31:36So we had like the map of the UK versus the map of Scotland,
0:31:36 > 0:31:37and things like that.
0:31:37 > 0:31:42And for two out of these three images, she actually quite clearly
0:31:42 > 0:31:45looked more at the ones supporting the Union,
0:31:45 > 0:31:48supporting the Better Together campaign.
0:31:48 > 0:31:55And what's also really interesting is when we showed her facts
0:31:55 > 0:31:58that sort of could persuade you to vote either way,
0:31:58 > 0:32:01on both sides of the screen,
0:32:01 > 0:32:04so one was pro-union, one was pro-independence,
0:32:04 > 0:32:06for the independence side she just sort of like
0:32:06 > 0:32:09skimmed like two out of those eight facts,
0:32:09 > 0:32:12and spent a bit more time looking at one of them,
0:32:12 > 0:32:14whereas for the Union side
0:32:14 > 0:32:16she actually looked at almost all of them
0:32:16 > 0:32:19and spent a lot more time actually reading through it.
0:32:19 > 0:32:23In a way this has got to do with, confirmation bias, I believe,
0:32:23 > 0:32:27because, what you do is if you're subconsciously leaning
0:32:27 > 0:32:33towards one option over the other, you're going to try and find reasons
0:32:33 > 0:32:37that support your subconscious feelings, essentially.
0:32:37 > 0:32:42So Sarah, that's what you didn't know you thought.
0:32:42 > 0:32:44You've still plenty of campaigning to go,
0:32:44 > 0:32:48and I suspect your vote is still up for grabs.
0:32:48 > 0:32:51Unfortunately we can't fit a brain scanner
0:32:51 > 0:32:54and an eye tracker to all of our undecided voters.
0:32:54 > 0:32:56In order to reveal their subconscious self,
0:32:56 > 0:32:59they have to sit through a public meeting.
0:32:59 > 0:33:00So how did it go?
0:33:00 > 0:33:02Did they get what they wanted
0:33:02 > 0:33:05and did the meeting speak to their heart or their head?
0:33:07 > 0:33:10Still the heart and the head, and not enough information still,
0:33:10 > 0:33:12still like that yet.
0:33:12 > 0:33:15Doesn't matter what decision you make, it couldn't be
0:33:15 > 0:33:17any worse than it is just now.
0:33:17 > 0:33:19What did you think of it, did it talk to your head?
0:33:19 > 0:33:22You wanted your head questions answered.
0:33:22 > 0:33:25Covered a few areas that I hadn't really thought about but,
0:33:25 > 0:33:30the fundamental answers I'm looking for still haven't been answered.
0:33:30 > 0:33:32And what about your heart, how's that feeling?
0:33:32 > 0:33:35Well, my heart feels a wee bit warmer certainly, you know,
0:33:35 > 0:33:38but there's still a lot of questions need answers.
0:33:38 > 0:33:41People are desperate, desperate for facts.
0:33:41 > 0:33:44Now the reason they're desperate for facts
0:33:44 > 0:33:46is that they're viewing the referendum
0:33:46 > 0:33:50in a very emotional way, so they are really scared, really anxious,
0:33:50 > 0:33:54not to make the wrong decision because they know it's irreversible,
0:33:54 > 0:33:57now, that's an emotional response, to the debate, but it
0:33:57 > 0:34:00leads into a rational place, it leads them to think, I need to get
0:34:00 > 0:34:02this 100% right, and to get it 100% right
0:34:02 > 0:34:05I need to get as much information and as many facts as possible.
0:34:08 > 0:34:10That does seems pretty sensible,
0:34:10 > 0:34:13you examine all the facts before making your decision,
0:34:13 > 0:34:15rather than just going on a gut feeling.
0:34:15 > 0:34:19But new research from North America suggests otherwise.
0:34:19 > 0:34:23Professor David Redlawsk of Rutgers University in New Jersey says
0:34:23 > 0:34:26we can't ignore our emotions, whatever anyone says.
0:34:26 > 0:34:28That's what our parents have always told us to do,
0:34:28 > 0:34:32they've always told us to don't be emotional, think through this, make
0:34:32 > 0:34:36a list and compare the pros and cons and all of those kinds of things.
0:34:36 > 0:34:41But in fact we're emotional beings, emotions drive much of what we do
0:34:41 > 0:34:45and if we think about politics, politics really is about emotions.
0:34:45 > 0:34:47I think you have to have some facts,
0:34:47 > 0:34:49I think facts are actually important,
0:34:49 > 0:34:53people expect more than just a vacuous emotionally-based campaign,
0:34:53 > 0:34:56there needs to be something there. The research that I've done
0:34:56 > 0:35:00shows that people who try to pay too much attention to the facts,
0:35:00 > 0:35:05actually often do a worse job in making a decision than those who go
0:35:05 > 0:35:10with a sense of a gut feeling, but I think trying to base a campaign
0:35:10 > 0:35:14entirely on facts is not going to engage voters in the same way
0:35:14 > 0:35:21that a campaign that engages facts, hope and fear, is going to do.
0:35:21 > 0:35:26Did he just say the f-word? "Fear"? Really?
0:35:27 > 0:35:31Well, as the author of The Positive Case For Negative Campaigning,
0:35:31 > 0:35:35as well as being a battle-hardened democratic candidate in New Jersey,
0:35:35 > 0:35:37Professor Redlawsk has experience
0:35:37 > 0:35:41of both the theoretical and the practical of going negative.
0:35:43 > 0:35:47I've stood for office. I've been successful, I've been unsuccessful.
0:35:47 > 0:35:51I've been both the target of attack ads
0:35:51 > 0:35:55but I've also been the perpetrator of an attack ad.
0:35:55 > 0:35:59'Something smells in Hillsborough and this time it's not a farm.
0:35:59 > 0:36:02'It's shady dealings between Hillsborough Republicans
0:36:02 > 0:36:03'and greedy developers.'
0:36:03 > 0:36:06It doesn't always win necessarily, I don't think you can be purely
0:36:06 > 0:36:10negative, I don't think you can be unremittingly negative.
0:36:10 > 0:36:14'Let's clear the air, let's re-elect Dave Redlawsk for honestly
0:36:14 > 0:36:18'pushing to protect open space, and clean up government.'
0:36:18 > 0:36:21If it's always negative then there's nothing interesting,
0:36:21 > 0:36:23there's nothing unique.
0:36:27 > 0:36:30The choice we make will be irrevocable.
0:36:30 > 0:36:33If we decide to leave the United Kingdom there is no way back.
0:36:33 > 0:36:36We can't give our children a one-way ticket
0:36:36 > 0:36:38to a deeply uncertain destination.
0:36:40 > 0:36:43People are critical about Better Together because it's
0:36:43 > 0:36:46so negative, but quite frankly, negative campaigning works.
0:36:46 > 0:36:50However, negative campaigning which is not too personalised works,
0:36:50 > 0:36:54if it becomes personalised, or if it loses credibility,
0:36:54 > 0:36:56then it can have the opposite effect.
0:36:56 > 0:36:59And I think the danger for Better Together is that it sometimes
0:36:59 > 0:37:03overstates its case, some of the arguments may lack credibility.
0:37:03 > 0:37:07Please, let's not waste it.
0:37:07 > 0:37:11Please. Let's say Yes.
0:37:21 > 0:37:24Ladies and gentlemen, that was quite a launch.
0:37:24 > 0:37:26Let's make sure it's quite a campaign. Thank you.
0:37:26 > 0:37:29It's very much a campaign of hope - because none of us
0:37:29 > 0:37:31really know exactly what would happen in the event of Yes
0:37:31 > 0:37:34or indeed No vote - against fear.
0:37:34 > 0:37:37And I don't think we've ever really seen a campaign quite
0:37:37 > 0:37:41as starkly presented as hope versus fear as we have in this referendum.
0:37:47 > 0:37:51But could something as innocuous as a fear of spiders, or seeing a burst
0:37:51 > 0:37:55verruca, really reveal how we're likely to vote in the referendum?
0:37:57 > 0:38:00OK, all the usual caveats here, this is just about the fun,
0:38:00 > 0:38:03it's not a scientific sample.
0:38:03 > 0:38:05How could it be? It's people from the BBC in their lunchtime.
0:38:05 > 0:38:10But what we're hoping to see is perhaps inside our heads a little.
0:38:10 > 0:38:13What was this testing?
0:38:13 > 0:38:17This is testing the increasingly well established hypothesis that
0:38:17 > 0:38:19there are differences between people
0:38:19 > 0:38:22in how they react physically to fear
0:38:22 > 0:38:25and threat, and that these manifest themselves in political views.
0:38:25 > 0:38:28Now broadly speaking, conservatives are more...
0:38:28 > 0:38:31Small-C conservatives are more prone to fear.
0:38:31 > 0:38:34And you find that those whose skin crawls more when confronted
0:38:34 > 0:38:39by threatening images like these, are also more likely to have
0:38:39 > 0:38:42small-C conservative opinions, and although this hasn't been tested yet
0:38:42 > 0:38:46we are kind of pioneering the test of whether that conservatism
0:38:46 > 0:38:50extends to sticking with the status quo constitutionally.
0:38:50 > 0:38:53So what we're looking to see is whether those people who are towards
0:38:53 > 0:38:57the utterly disgusted end of this scale, area also more likely
0:38:57 > 0:39:00to say, well, "No, I'll stick with the status quo",
0:39:00 > 0:39:02and whether those who are more on the,
0:39:02 > 0:39:04"Yeah, I can take this in my stride",
0:39:04 > 0:39:07will also take independence and the risks that it brings
0:39:07 > 0:39:09in their stride as well.
0:39:09 > 0:39:12So I just need somebody to get the ball rolling by volunteering first.
0:39:12 > 0:39:14- Anybody tempted? - I'll do it.
0:39:14 > 0:39:18OK, so, just on average how strongly you react to these things.
0:39:18 > 0:39:21They're both supposed to be pretty grim.
0:39:21 > 0:39:22Seven.
0:39:22 > 0:39:24OK, so now you need to move across to the ballot papers
0:39:24 > 0:39:26which are over there.
0:39:26 > 0:39:28Thanks very much. Look at them close up.
0:39:28 > 0:39:31And then put that number on the ballot paper
0:39:31 > 0:39:35along with how you would vote in the independence referendum.
0:39:35 > 0:39:36So in it goes.
0:39:36 > 0:39:39So if you fill in that number on question one on the ballot
0:39:39 > 0:39:43paper and then the second question is your referendum voting intention.
0:39:43 > 0:39:46Well as the returning officer appointed by myself, really,
0:39:46 > 0:39:48we're going to tip this out now
0:39:48 > 0:39:51although we're not going to reveal obviously how our colleagues
0:39:51 > 0:39:54voted in the independence referendum, because they get
0:39:54 > 0:39:58to do that for real, should they wish, on September 18th.
0:39:58 > 0:40:02Oh, there's one stuck in there.
0:40:04 > 0:40:06I'll begin the count Yes.
0:40:06 > 0:40:10We'll find out in a few minutes if a fear of spiders and an aversion
0:40:10 > 0:40:15to verrucas can indeed reveal our political convictions, but back
0:40:15 > 0:40:18at Edinburgh University, as part of their series of experiments looking
0:40:18 > 0:40:22at national identity and decision making, Professor Laura Cram's team
0:40:22 > 0:40:27are using an FMRI scanner, to see to what extent national identity really
0:40:27 > 0:40:30matters to people, irrespective of how much they say it doesn't.
0:40:30 > 0:40:33We were trying to find out whether there was a difference
0:40:33 > 0:40:36between what you said and what your body showed, and this
0:40:36 > 0:40:40current project that we're doing combines both attitudes - so, what
0:40:40 > 0:40:45people say - and physiology, what their bodies show, and what happens
0:40:45 > 0:40:49at the neural level in their brains, to see how those three correlate
0:40:49 > 0:40:53with one another and whether perhaps they even tell different stories.
0:40:53 > 0:40:55There has been some really interesting research
0:40:55 > 0:40:59which is very parallel, we think, on race, and on the way in which
0:40:59 > 0:41:05individuals who, on any request to identify themselves
0:41:05 > 0:41:09on scales of racism etc, will say they're absolutely not racist.
0:41:09 > 0:41:15But, when you do a test on their behaviour, they found that,
0:41:15 > 0:41:17people empathise most with their own group.
0:41:17 > 0:41:21You still OK there, Emma?
0:41:21 > 0:41:23In this experiment our volunteer Emma
0:41:23 > 0:41:25is going to do a pain empathy test
0:41:25 > 0:41:29to see how much pain she reckons the folk in the film are in.
0:41:29 > 0:41:32What she doesn't know is that before she sees each face,
0:41:32 > 0:41:36a subliminal image of a Scottish or English national flag might appear.
0:41:37 > 0:41:40We're expecting to find, in our work,
0:41:40 > 0:41:44that kind of nuance on national identity.
0:41:44 > 0:41:48That we have groups that we are more empathetic with,
0:41:48 > 0:41:51groups that we are a bit more empathetic with
0:41:51 > 0:41:53and groups that we're going to see as complete outsiders
0:41:53 > 0:41:56and that our ability to rationalise
0:41:56 > 0:41:59is affected by some of those emotional responses.
0:41:59 > 0:42:01So what are you doing here?
0:42:01 > 0:42:03So we're just running the localisers to begin with
0:42:03 > 0:42:06so we've got some images to pan the main scans from.
0:42:06 > 0:42:10So these are just a single slice through her brain
0:42:10 > 0:42:12just in the three different planes, like 3-D really.
0:42:12 > 0:42:15You're doing really well.
0:42:15 > 0:42:17OK, just going to set up the first main scan,
0:42:17 > 0:42:20it'll be about five minutes.
0:42:20 > 0:42:23What we're seeing now is Emma's brain in some detail.
0:42:23 > 0:42:26What we're going to see is
0:42:26 > 0:42:28what's going on in there in terms of blood flow.
0:42:28 > 0:42:32Yeah, we're going to see activity while she's doing the task.
0:42:32 > 0:42:35So these images are remarkable in themselves,
0:42:35 > 0:42:36and thanks very much for them,
0:42:36 > 0:42:40but this is, if you like, the medical physics going on here,
0:42:40 > 0:42:43but neuro-politics is beginning as well.
0:42:45 > 0:42:47- Hello, Katie.- Hi. - What's happening here?
0:42:47 > 0:42:51We want to see if Scottish people empathise more with other
0:42:51 > 0:42:54Scottish people than they would with people of another
0:42:54 > 0:42:57nationality, for example, in this case English.
0:42:57 > 0:42:59So we're monitoring what her brain is doing
0:42:59 > 0:43:02while she's making these decisions, so she doesn't only have to decide,
0:43:02 > 0:43:04kind of, how painful she thinks it is,
0:43:04 > 0:43:07at the same time her brain is going to be sort of thinking about this
0:43:07 > 0:43:10and working out her responses, and we will be able to see
0:43:10 > 0:43:13what it was her brain was doing while she made these decisions.
0:43:13 > 0:43:15So what if you like is the basis of this test,
0:43:15 > 0:43:17what are you founding it on?
0:43:17 > 0:43:20We know that people's decisions change but what we don't know
0:43:20 > 0:43:23is why or what's going on in their brains when that's happening.
0:43:23 > 0:43:25So this is just trying to take it to the next level
0:43:25 > 0:43:29so we can see what sort of brain networks are activated,
0:43:29 > 0:43:31parts of the brain that are activated more or less when
0:43:31 > 0:43:34we see nationality cues, so we can get a bit of a better understanding
0:43:34 > 0:43:38of what's going on when we make these political decisions.
0:43:39 > 0:43:43It would be unfair and probably impossible to separate out Emma's
0:43:43 > 0:43:46results from the rest of the study, but what she did here today will be
0:43:46 > 0:43:51fed in to the overall findings that'll be published in September.
0:43:51 > 0:43:53What we can say with certainty though,
0:43:53 > 0:43:57is that there are so many more psychological aspects to this
0:43:57 > 0:44:00referendum, than we could ever possibly have imagined.
0:44:02 > 0:44:06So did the BBC staff confirm Dr Johns' spider theory?
0:44:06 > 0:44:09Are we seeing some kind of correlation so far?
0:44:09 > 0:44:11Well, it's early days without a scientific count
0:44:11 > 0:44:14but this is a classic case of somebody who reacted very
0:44:14 > 0:44:18strongly against nine, and they're a No voter.
0:44:18 > 0:44:20Exactly as would be predicted.
0:44:20 > 0:44:22And there's here somebody, hardly any reaction to the photos,
0:44:22 > 0:44:26can take threats and risks in their stride, and they're
0:44:26 > 0:44:30a Yes voter, so at least based on those two, things are working.
0:44:30 > 0:44:32So the more risk averse people are the more likely
0:44:32 > 0:44:36they would be to vote No, the more comfortable with risk they are,
0:44:36 > 0:44:38the more likely they'd be to vote Yes.
0:44:38 > 0:44:40What does that mean for the two campaigns?
0:44:40 > 0:44:44The No campaign will definitely try to exacerbate those risks,
0:44:44 > 0:44:47at the same time as trying not to appear too negative which is
0:44:47 > 0:44:49quite a difficult trick to pull off.
0:44:49 > 0:44:51If you think about it, there's something very
0:44:51 > 0:44:54strange in the idea that the way people react to the photograph
0:44:54 > 0:44:58of a spider should influence the way they vote in a referendum
0:44:58 > 0:45:01on Scotland's constitutional future, but that is increasingly the
0:45:01 > 0:45:05way that psychologists understand that we make our decisions.
0:45:05 > 0:45:09The inborn, or at least kind of early nurture,
0:45:09 > 0:45:13things that structure our choices in all sorts
0:45:13 > 0:45:17of areas are also the basis on which we tend to make political decisions.
0:45:17 > 0:45:20To work out the final result we totted up the fear score
0:45:20 > 0:45:23of each person and divided it by the number of voters to
0:45:23 > 0:45:27get the average figure for both Yes and No.
0:45:27 > 0:45:29So that's exactly as we would have expected.
0:45:29 > 0:45:33The Yeses are about there on the scale,
0:45:33 > 0:45:35and Nos are in this territory.
0:45:35 > 0:45:38So consistent with the expectations,
0:45:38 > 0:45:42the Nos are those who are much more reactive to, this is a threat,
0:45:42 > 0:45:48this is, this makes me react strongly, and so they're also
0:45:48 > 0:45:52the kind of people who will stick with the constitutional status quo.
0:45:52 > 0:45:54The Yeses are more towards, I mean everybody reacts a bit to these
0:45:54 > 0:45:57unpleasant photos, but the Yeses are much more in the,
0:45:57 > 0:45:59"No, I can take this in my stride",
0:45:59 > 0:46:02as it seems they can the idea of independence as well.
0:46:02 > 0:46:05As I've been saying through this, it is just about the fun,
0:46:05 > 0:46:09but, it's been a tremendous insight because it tells us
0:46:09 > 0:46:11that really there are things going on there,
0:46:11 > 0:46:15which we think may be rational processes but perhaps aren't.
0:46:15 > 0:46:17Yeah, I mean this is not what the forefathers of democracy
0:46:17 > 0:46:21had in mind, that people would be driven not by rational consideration
0:46:21 > 0:46:25of the issues but by how much they react physically to fear,
0:46:25 > 0:46:27but this is indeed psychologists are now
0:46:27 > 0:46:30increasingly convinced how we make decisions in a whole range
0:46:30 > 0:46:32of spheres of life including politics,
0:46:32 > 0:46:35and it is kind of weird that those who react more
0:46:35 > 0:46:39strongly to a photo of a spider, are also reacting more strongly
0:46:39 > 0:46:42to the idea of independence, but that's, that's how it works.
0:46:42 > 0:46:44Rob, thanks very much.
0:46:45 > 0:46:47Weird indeed.
0:46:47 > 0:46:50But it is now widely accepted among American political strategists
0:46:50 > 0:46:56that a campaign based solely on reason and logic is bound to fail.
0:46:56 > 0:46:59Politics is, I think, about emotions primarily, I think
0:46:59 > 0:47:02campaigns understand that, I think much of what they do
0:47:02 > 0:47:06is meant to play on both positive and negative emotions,
0:47:06 > 0:47:11even when there's a guise of an informational aspect of it.
0:47:11 > 0:47:14We often think of positive and negative emotions as just opposites
0:47:14 > 0:47:18of each other, so if you feel good then you must not feel bad.
0:47:18 > 0:47:20In fact, it really doesn't work that way at all.
0:47:20 > 0:47:24Ronald Regan did this wonderfully positive campaign about,
0:47:24 > 0:47:30"America is stronger, America is prouder, America is better.
0:47:30 > 0:47:33"Would we ever want to go back
0:47:33 > 0:47:36"to the dark days of Carter and Mondale?"
0:47:36 > 0:47:40And, you know, he did that in an ad called "Morning In America",
0:47:40 > 0:47:44that everyone thinks of as this wonderfully positive ad.
0:47:44 > 0:47:48The ad is wonderfully positive but it sneaks
0:47:48 > 0:47:52in negatives over and over and over, so that you're not even aware,
0:47:52 > 0:47:56your brain is processing them, but consciously you have no idea
0:47:56 > 0:47:59that he is just relentlessly attacking the other side.
0:48:00 > 0:48:03'It's morning again in America.
0:48:03 > 0:48:06'Today, more men and women will go to work
0:48:06 > 0:48:09'than ever before in our country's history.
0:48:09 > 0:48:13'With interest rates at about half the record highs of 1980.
0:48:13 > 0:48:16'Nearly 2,000 families today will buy new homes.
0:48:16 > 0:48:19'More than at any time in the past four years.
0:48:22 > 0:48:26'This afternoon, 6,500 young men and women will be married.
0:48:26 > 0:48:29'And with inflation at less than half of what it was just four
0:48:29 > 0:48:33'years ago, they can look forward with confidence to the future.
0:48:36 > 0:48:38'It's morning again in America.
0:48:38 > 0:48:41'And, under the leadership of President Regan,
0:48:41 > 0:48:45'our country is prouder, and stronger, and better.
0:48:47 > 0:48:49'Why would we ever want to return to where we were,
0:48:49 > 0:48:51'less than four short years ago?'
0:48:51 > 0:48:55He never mentions Carter and Mondale, he just says,
0:48:55 > 0:48:58"Do we really want to go back to four years ago?"
0:48:58 > 0:49:02You can activate positive and negative emotions at the same time,
0:49:02 > 0:49:05and both messages are getting through.
0:49:06 > 0:49:12What you want to do, ideally, is to have people,
0:49:12 > 0:49:15consciously thinking more about the positive.
0:49:15 > 0:49:21A successful campaign is usually a campaign that appeals to hope
0:49:21 > 0:49:26and to enthusiasm and to where things could go, but also appeals to
0:49:26 > 0:49:31anxiety and to what the worries are about, if you take the other path.
0:49:32 > 0:49:35As one of the world's most in-demand political consultants,
0:49:35 > 0:49:39Professor Westen kindly agreed to cast a professional eye
0:49:39 > 0:49:42over a couple of big budget, high production value films,
0:49:42 > 0:49:44produced by both sides.
0:49:44 > 0:49:47Starting with Better Together's Best of Both Worlds.
0:49:47 > 0:49:49'I love loads of things about Scotland.
0:49:49 > 0:49:52'I love the music, I love the culture,
0:49:52 > 0:49:55'I love the opportunities that you can have.
0:49:55 > 0:49:57'I'm proud to be Scottish, it's where I was born and it's...'
0:49:57 > 0:50:00What's nice about the beginning of this is you begin with
0:50:00 > 0:50:03the music and she talks about the culture
0:50:03 > 0:50:06and the music of Scotland, and this is a No ad.
0:50:06 > 0:50:11And so, that's, you know, it's a real strength, it's already
0:50:11 > 0:50:14establishing, in an emotional way, connections with Scotland.
0:50:14 > 0:50:15Like music and culture of Scotland,
0:50:15 > 0:50:18and then the scenes are beautiful and the music is matching
0:50:18 > 0:50:21the scenes, it's matching her voice, all this sounds good so far.
0:50:21 > 0:50:24'..where I was born and it's what I've been my whole life
0:50:24 > 0:50:26'and it's not gonna change.
0:50:26 > 0:50:30'Alexander Graham Bell, Fleming, who invented penicillin...'
0:50:30 > 0:50:34What I like about this is now turning into what I'd be
0:50:34 > 0:50:38concerned about, which is, I'm looking at this
0:50:38 > 0:50:40and thinking that this is a Yes ad.
0:50:40 > 0:50:43SPEAKS GAELIC
0:50:43 > 0:50:48'I love the scenery, I love how green it is, I like the people...'
0:50:48 > 0:50:51What it does in your brain actually, is that it activates
0:50:51 > 0:50:52the neural networks that
0:50:52 > 0:50:56have already started to become associated with Yes.
0:50:56 > 0:51:00'There's space, there's beauty of scenery, friendly people,
0:51:00 > 0:51:02'lots of opportunities for business.'
0:51:05 > 0:51:07OK, we're 45 seconds into the video
0:51:07 > 0:51:10and we don't yet know that this is a No ad.
0:51:10 > 0:51:14That's, that's a problem, because at this point, I'm thinking, vote Yes.
0:51:14 > 0:51:17And that's what's been triggered in my brain,
0:51:17 > 0:51:20it's called priming, is that essentially when you activate
0:51:20 > 0:51:24a network, you prime the brain to expect
0:51:24 > 0:51:28what's coming next, and what you're expecting now, is Yes.
0:51:28 > 0:51:31'I would say I'm definitely proud to be Scottish and proud to be British.
0:51:31 > 0:51:34'And thinking that Scotland would definitely have the
0:51:34 > 0:51:36'best of both worlds.'
0:51:36 > 0:51:38That was a great segue and it should have happened,
0:51:38 > 0:51:42it should have happened about, about 30 seconds ago,
0:51:42 > 0:51:43because, she's saying,
0:51:43 > 0:51:47"I'm proud to be Scottish, I'm proud to be British, best of both worlds."
0:51:47 > 0:51:50'I'm very patriotic and it's because I'm patriotic
0:51:50 > 0:51:52'that I don't want independence.'
0:51:52 > 0:51:55I would have just moved this up, and if I were
0:51:55 > 0:51:58the No campaign I'd move it up really fast.
0:51:58 > 0:52:02'I know Scottish poems, I know Scottish songs, I go to Burns
0:52:02 > 0:52:04'suppers, I like tartan, you know?
0:52:04 > 0:52:06'What makes me not patriotic?'
0:52:06 > 0:52:10It's a patriotic symbol, they are really using patriotism,
0:52:10 > 0:52:12this part is, you know, really brilliant.
0:52:17 > 0:52:21Why are cars going down the road at, you know, so fast?
0:52:21 > 0:52:23And why is this on fast forward?
0:52:23 > 0:52:25I don't know what they're fast forwarding to,
0:52:25 > 0:52:29and the message really, that's going opposite of their message.
0:52:29 > 0:52:33Their message should be, we don't want to fast forward,
0:52:33 > 0:52:37because if we fast forward, who knows what we're going to run into?
0:52:39 > 0:52:42'I think together we're much stronger,
0:52:42 > 0:52:44'you're a family unit, you can support each other a lot better.'
0:52:44 > 0:52:46That was a wonderful thing to do as well,
0:52:46 > 0:52:50they're basically saying, "We're family", and there is nothing
0:52:50 > 0:52:54that appeals to people in their guts more than family.
0:52:54 > 0:52:57'I don't want to feel like in a few years that
0:52:57 > 0:53:00'if I go down to England I don't want to feel like I shouldn't
0:53:00 > 0:53:02'really be there because it's not, I'm not part of the UK any more,
0:53:02 > 0:53:05'so, I don't want to feel isolated from the rest of the UK.'
0:53:05 > 0:53:09I would separate this out into two or three videos.
0:53:09 > 0:53:12'If you're going to separate you're on your own.'
0:53:12 > 0:53:15If I were a No activist I'd love this.
0:53:15 > 0:53:19If I were a fence-sitter I'm not sure I'd get through it,
0:53:19 > 0:53:23because I might say, again, rationally,
0:53:23 > 0:53:263½ minutes to watch something,
0:53:26 > 0:53:30on the fate of your country, you know, is nothing,
0:53:30 > 0:53:31and you ought to do it,
0:53:31 > 0:53:34and as a good Scot you ought to take the time.
0:53:34 > 0:53:37But if you're busy, you've got lots of things going on,
0:53:37 > 0:53:40you've got a family to take care of, you're not going to watch
0:53:40 > 0:53:423½ minutes of a video.
0:53:42 > 0:53:46So that's us had a look at one of the Better Together videos, now
0:53:46 > 0:53:50perhaps we can have a look at one of the Yes Scotland campaign slots.
0:53:50 > 0:53:53'Hi. My name's Kirsty.
0:53:53 > 0:53:58'I'm going to be born on the 18th of September, 2014.
0:53:58 > 0:54:02'The very same day as the referendum on independence for Scotland.'
0:54:02 > 0:54:07This beginning is already brilliant. I cannot suppress a smile.
0:54:07 > 0:54:10You know I'm looking at this, at this child,
0:54:10 > 0:54:14who's a future Scot, you know, and who is, you know,
0:54:14 > 0:54:20you're looking at her in-utero, and now you're seeing a picture of her,
0:54:20 > 0:54:23once she's born, and she's going to be born on the referendum day,
0:54:23 > 0:54:27it is a wonderful way of saying that,
0:54:27 > 0:54:29"Our future is in our hands now."
0:54:29 > 0:54:34And in fact, she's literally in her arms and that, this is her future.
0:54:34 > 0:54:38'The question is, what kind of country will I grow up in?
0:54:38 > 0:54:42'Will it be a Scotland that is fairer, more prosperous,
0:54:42 > 0:54:45'a Scotland where I can reach my full potential?
0:54:45 > 0:54:49'Or will it still be a country ruled by Westminster?
0:54:49 > 0:54:50'A country that is still
0:54:50 > 0:54:53'the fourth most unequal in the developed world.'
0:54:53 > 0:54:57This is again something that's great about this video thus far,
0:54:57 > 0:54:59is, if they continue to make it
0:54:59 > 0:55:03really positive, but what you just heard was the first jab.
0:55:03 > 0:55:06Do we want it to be ruled by Westminster?
0:55:06 > 0:55:11It's basically saying, they're slipping in a negative
0:55:11 > 0:55:16in what's an overridingly positive-toned ad.
0:55:16 > 0:55:19And, so that you, you don't end up associating negativity
0:55:19 > 0:55:23with the Yes cause, you associate it with the No cause,
0:55:23 > 0:55:26and, if you can pull this off,
0:55:26 > 0:55:30it's a great, it's a great way to persuade people.
0:55:30 > 0:55:34'Will the land of my birth be a true nation that stands proudly
0:55:34 > 0:55:36'alongside all other nations?
0:55:36 > 0:55:39'Or will it be a country with no place in the world, a country
0:55:39 > 0:55:41'led by others into illegal wars,
0:55:41 > 0:55:45'and used as a dumping ground for weapons of mass destruction?'
0:55:45 > 0:55:47Again this is a really strong argument.
0:55:47 > 0:55:50This gets back to the question of reason and emotion.
0:55:50 > 0:55:53You know, it's making a reasoned argument,
0:55:53 > 0:55:55but it's doing it in an emotional way.
0:55:55 > 0:55:57Do we want to be dragged into wars,
0:55:57 > 0:56:01do we want to be a dumping ground for nuclear weapons?
0:56:01 > 0:56:05I mean, those are pretty reasonable questions to ask,
0:56:05 > 0:56:09and is that something that the average Scot would want to see?
0:56:09 > 0:56:12'Will I grow up in a Scotland where our wealth and natural
0:56:12 > 0:56:15'resources are in Scotland's hands?
0:56:15 > 0:56:18'Or will be more of the same-old same-old,
0:56:18 > 0:56:22'where our money is squandered by governments who are out of touch?
0:56:22 > 0:56:24'Governments we didn't even vote for.'
0:56:24 > 0:56:26That was beautiful.
0:56:26 > 0:56:29'Will I grow up in a Scotland where the decisions about our future
0:56:29 > 0:56:32'are taken by the people who care most about Scotland?
0:56:32 > 0:56:34'The people who live here.'
0:56:34 > 0:56:38This has been an absolutely flawless video.
0:56:38 > 0:56:40'Please vote Yes. For Scotland.
0:56:40 > 0:56:43'For yourself, and for your children's future.'
0:56:43 > 0:56:46I had no impulse to turn it off at any point.
0:56:46 > 0:56:50If you compare that to the No ad where there was a long stretch
0:56:50 > 0:56:53of just kind of running roads going at fast forward
0:56:53 > 0:56:57which meant nothing, and here you're seeing a family
0:56:57 > 0:57:01and you're getting the sense of, this is what it is to be a Scot.
0:57:01 > 0:57:03This is what it means to be Scottish.
0:57:03 > 0:57:06This is what it means to be our own people.
0:57:06 > 0:57:08I watched that and I had a smile on my face
0:57:08 > 0:57:11and again I couldn't take it off.
0:57:11 > 0:57:13So having examined the messages
0:57:13 > 0:57:15the campaigns are trying to get across
0:57:15 > 0:57:19and with the referendum just weeks away, what one piece of advice
0:57:19 > 0:57:24would Professor Westen give to both Yes Scotland and Better Together?
0:57:24 > 0:57:30I always say to, to leaders, speak in ways that evoke images.
0:57:30 > 0:57:34Speak in ways that evoke the images that make you feel
0:57:34 > 0:57:38strongly about this, because they'll probably
0:57:38 > 0:57:41make your countrymen feel strongly about this.
0:57:45 > 0:57:48Even after all this, you may still think that the decision you
0:57:48 > 0:57:51make on September 18th will be made entirely
0:57:51 > 0:57:55by the rational part of your brain and emotions won't come into it,
0:57:55 > 0:57:58and there is always the chance you could be right, because every
0:57:58 > 0:58:03person, every brain, is unique, and no matter how you reach your
0:58:03 > 0:58:07decision, at the ballot box, it'll be yours and yours alone to make.
0:58:33 > 0:58:35We all reason politically with our emotions.
0:58:35 > 0:58:38The political brain is an emotional brain.