0:00:07 > 0:00:11In just seven months' time, we're going to be asked
0:00:11 > 0:00:12to decide our country's future.
0:00:12 > 0:00:15The implications of this, not just for ourselves
0:00:15 > 0:00:18but on our children and our grandchildren are huge.
0:00:18 > 0:00:22We're being told this is a once in a lifetime choice.
0:00:22 > 0:00:26People are coming on and saying, "How will this affect me directly?"
0:00:26 > 0:00:29..about what this actually means for their country.
0:00:29 > 0:00:33What are the things that will really matter when you decide how to vote?
0:00:33 > 0:00:37Are you ready to make the decision of a lifetime?
0:00:53 > 0:00:57All the referendum surveys have been pretty consistent so far.
0:00:57 > 0:01:00The Better Together campaign's in the lead,
0:01:00 > 0:01:02with the Yes Scotland campaign making some progress.
0:01:02 > 0:01:06Scottish voters, young and old, men and women, rich and poor -
0:01:06 > 0:01:09we're now being inundated with information
0:01:09 > 0:01:13and a demand that we make a decision about all our futures.
0:01:13 > 0:01:16But many of us have yet to decide how to vote
0:01:16 > 0:01:20and some of us clearly don't have a clue.
0:01:20 > 0:01:25- Will everything be in Gaelic? - Will we get Irn Bru on tap? - Will there be free fish suppers?
0:01:25 > 0:01:28OK, I'm exaggerating a bit!
0:01:28 > 0:01:32But many of the undecided say they simply don't have enough
0:01:32 > 0:01:35information or understanding to help them pick out what matters
0:01:35 > 0:01:40from all the ideas and arguments swirling around their heads.
0:01:40 > 0:01:44So we've had a bright idea and carried out our own poll.
0:01:44 > 0:01:47No, no, wait! Come out from behind the sofa,
0:01:47 > 0:01:50it's not #johncurtice time again, I promise.
0:01:50 > 0:01:55We've conducted our own exclusive survey, asking you to tell us
0:01:55 > 0:01:58which of these ten fundamental issues will matter most when
0:01:58 > 0:02:00deciding whether to vote Yes or No.
0:02:02 > 0:02:05And the good news is, this will be a politician-free zone.
0:02:05 > 0:02:08Tonight, you'll hardly hear from the usual old chorus
0:02:08 > 0:02:10of yea and naysayers.
0:02:10 > 0:02:14Instead, you're going to hear from ten independent experts.
0:02:14 > 0:02:18They're political scientists, defence analysts, economists,
0:02:18 > 0:02:20people with no political axe to grind.
0:02:20 > 0:02:23They deal in hard facts that may help you
0:02:23 > 0:02:26when you're deciding how to cast your vote.
0:02:26 > 0:02:30It's as unprecedented for us as it is for the politicians
0:02:30 > 0:02:34but we can approach it from a neutral perspective,
0:02:34 > 0:02:38as people who are impartial and try to inform the debate.
0:02:38 > 0:02:42Our idea of being impartial is if we can be equally rude to both sides
0:02:42 > 0:02:46and annoy both sides equally, we're probably doing all right.
0:02:46 > 0:02:49You'll also be hearing from what we hope you'll agree
0:02:49 > 0:02:53are trustworthy voices whose job at the BBC is to take
0:02:53 > 0:02:57the pulse of the nation and keep us properly informed.
0:02:57 > 0:03:01Trying to make sense of the choices, the very major choices
0:03:01 > 0:03:04is unlike any other challenge I think we've faced before.
0:03:04 > 0:03:07Folk are engaged, they are anxious, they are hungry for information -
0:03:07 > 0:03:11really hungry for information. I've never seen anything like it.
0:03:11 > 0:03:15We've asked you to rank in order of importance ten key issues
0:03:15 > 0:03:18that will be affected by the referendum vote.
0:03:18 > 0:03:21At number 10, broadcasting.
0:03:21 > 0:03:23The only thing that Ruth Davison worked out
0:03:23 > 0:03:26was she didn't say we weren't going to get Doctor Who!
0:03:28 > 0:03:31Will I still be able to watch Doctor Who and Strictly Come Dancing?
0:03:31 > 0:03:35Will I have to watch endless repeats of River City instead of EastEnders?
0:03:35 > 0:03:37Will my license fee go up?
0:03:37 > 0:03:41Voters want to know what will happen to the BBC, and more importantly
0:03:41 > 0:03:45will we still be able to see the programmes we love?
0:03:45 > 0:03:49I think if you live in a relatively rich media environment
0:03:49 > 0:03:53as far as broadcasting is concerned, and that is true...
0:03:53 > 0:03:55If you live in that rich environment
0:03:55 > 0:03:59you are not going to be very happy at the possibility that you are
0:03:59 > 0:04:04going to end up with a broadcasting system which is much diminished.
0:04:04 > 0:04:05The Yes campaign have said that
0:04:05 > 0:04:09if you vote for independence they'll be able to do a wee deal with
0:04:09 > 0:04:13the BBC to make sure you carry on getting the TV you want.
0:04:15 > 0:04:18Let's see if we can get any insider knowledge.
0:04:18 > 0:04:22I thought it would be a rammy about Doctor Who and EastEnders
0:04:22 > 0:04:24but it has been slightly at a more elevated level.
0:04:24 > 0:04:28On the one hand, you've had the offer of reassurance
0:04:28 > 0:04:30about retaining those programmes,
0:04:30 > 0:04:34from the SNP. On the other hand, the UK Government place the BBC
0:04:34 > 0:04:40in a range of icons alongside the Army and the Health Service
0:04:40 > 0:04:44and the welfare state etc and so they stress it as a British icon.
0:04:45 > 0:04:46So what would happen to the BBC -
0:04:46 > 0:04:50not just its hit programmes, but also the £200 million
0:04:50 > 0:04:53Scottish headquarters and all that expensive gear?
0:04:53 > 0:04:56What we're told by Alex Salmond is that the assets, the staff
0:04:56 > 0:04:58will shift to a Scottish broadcasting service.
0:04:58 > 0:05:02The programming they want in Scotland will be available
0:05:02 > 0:05:05presumably through some kind of payment, that a licence fee,
0:05:05 > 0:05:09similar to the one we've got, will probably be retained in Scotland.
0:05:12 > 0:05:16The Yes camp have promised that in the new Scotland, we'll have
0:05:16 > 0:05:19a new Scottish broadcaster, designed to meet the needs and desires
0:05:19 > 0:05:24of a Scottish audience, without losing any of the shows we love.
0:05:24 > 0:05:27This takes us to the heart of the way in which this is independence...
0:05:27 > 0:05:31if you like programme is being presented to us
0:05:31 > 0:05:34because it really is independence-lite.
0:05:34 > 0:05:37The thrust of the White Paper is to say Scotland will become
0:05:37 > 0:05:40an independent country but a lot of things will actually be
0:05:40 > 0:05:44much the same as they are today, so there is not much to worry about.
0:05:46 > 0:05:49Oh, yes, of course. Suppose it makes sense.
0:05:51 > 0:05:55Scottish viewers may still be able to watch hit shows like Doctor Who,
0:05:55 > 0:05:57Sherlock and Strictly Come Dancing,
0:05:57 > 0:06:00but what would happen if the BBC bosses in London decide to
0:06:00 > 0:06:05treat a newly independent Scotland as just another foreign customer?
0:06:05 > 0:06:08- You know, you should go for somebody local.- Like who?
0:06:08 > 0:06:11If the London BBC drives a hard bargain
0:06:11 > 0:06:15and says actually we are going to have a cash price for these
0:06:15 > 0:06:20services, what that means, therefore, is a higher licence fee in Scotland.
0:06:20 > 0:06:22"Would you feck off?!"
0:06:22 > 0:06:26It needn't be a colossally higher licence fee, but it will be higher.
0:06:27 > 0:06:29In their White Paper, the Yes camp stipulate that,
0:06:29 > 0:06:32"the licence fee payable in Scotland at the point
0:06:32 > 0:06:35"of independence will be the same as in the rest of the UK."
0:06:35 > 0:06:39It's one of those areas of uncertainty. All of this is subject
0:06:39 > 0:06:42to negotiation. The question whether you pay more on your licence fee is
0:06:42 > 0:06:47a pretty hot topic to which we, yet again, cannot provide a clear answer.
0:06:49 > 0:06:52So that's what we know about our number 10, broadcasting.
0:06:52 > 0:06:54The BBC, like the UK Government,
0:06:54 > 0:06:58won't spell out what will be on offer or how they will negotiate
0:06:58 > 0:07:01with an independent Scotland until after the referendum.
0:07:01 > 0:07:03The game is on!
0:07:03 > 0:07:05But a deal probably could be done to make sure
0:07:05 > 0:07:09we could all keep being thrilled by the adventures of Doctor Who.
0:07:12 > 0:07:15OK, now that we've dealt with our own neck of the woods,
0:07:15 > 0:07:19let's look at something that matters a bit more to voters.
0:07:21 > 0:07:25At number 9, our relationship with the European Union.
0:07:25 > 0:07:27The president of the European Commission,
0:07:27 > 0:07:30who the nationalists say doesn't know what he's talking about,
0:07:30 > 0:07:33has said this will be treated as a new application.
0:07:33 > 0:07:35Can Better Together not just get off the scaremongering
0:07:35 > 0:07:39and embrace the idea that this nation is a European nation?
0:07:42 > 0:07:43Will we still be part of Europe?
0:07:43 > 0:07:45Couldn't the EU just say no to us?
0:07:45 > 0:07:49If we're independent, would we get lots of lovely subsidies?
0:07:49 > 0:07:52The Better Together campaign have warned that an independent
0:07:52 > 0:07:55Scotland would have to apply to be accepted as a new member
0:07:55 > 0:07:57of the European Union.
0:07:57 > 0:08:00Yes Scotland say this ignores the fact that Scotland as part of the
0:08:00 > 0:08:04UK has already been accepted, and the rest would be straightforward.
0:08:04 > 0:08:08The intriguing thing about the European Union, is that what is being
0:08:08 > 0:08:11offered by the SNP as being... that we would not be solely leaving the
0:08:11 > 0:08:15United Kingdom, we would be joining international institutions such as
0:08:15 > 0:08:20the European Union, and NATO and the UN in our own right, as Scotland.
0:08:21 > 0:08:24So, would an independent Scotland be
0:08:24 > 0:08:29welcomed into the European Union or made to jump through lots of hoops?
0:08:29 > 0:08:32I think this is a real concern. What we have in this debate
0:08:32 > 0:08:34is three players, not just the UK and Scotland government
0:08:34 > 0:08:37but the EU government. Because the SNP government...
0:08:37 > 0:08:41They have a double desire. The first is to become an independent country,
0:08:41 > 0:08:44and then, become an independent country within the EU.
0:08:44 > 0:08:47The Yes camp say Scotland would be able to simply walk right in
0:08:47 > 0:08:49and sit right down.
0:08:49 > 0:08:52I believe that Scotland would have to apply for admission
0:08:52 > 0:08:55and I think it would be very difficult to keep them out.
0:08:55 > 0:08:58The reason being that an independent Scotland would be
0:08:58 > 0:09:01recognised by the United Kingdom Government.
0:09:01 > 0:09:04I don't think that's correct to say that, because it's not up to them.
0:09:04 > 0:09:06The decision will be made by the other countries of the EU,
0:09:06 > 0:09:08the EU Commission and the EU Parliament.
0:09:08 > 0:09:11If Scotland were recognised by the United Kingdom,
0:09:11 > 0:09:14there is no reason why all the other 27 member states
0:09:14 > 0:09:17should not recognise Scotland as being independent.
0:09:17 > 0:09:20What we need to see is not SNP politicians getting up and saying,
0:09:20 > 0:09:23"Yeah, we can do this because our lawyer says this, that and the other."
0:09:23 > 0:09:26We need someone in the EU to make a clear statement.
0:09:26 > 0:09:27And the statement so far from the EU
0:09:27 > 0:09:31in my view is clear that they are going to have to reapply.
0:09:31 > 0:09:34There have already been warning signs that obstacles may lie ahead
0:09:34 > 0:09:36in Europe for an independent Scotland.
0:09:38 > 0:09:42TRANSLATION: A region that obtains independence from a member state
0:09:42 > 0:09:45of the European Union would be left outside the European Union.
0:09:45 > 0:09:48It's good that the Scottish people know that.
0:09:48 > 0:09:51It's been suggested that the Spanish government might create
0:09:51 > 0:09:54difficulties because the Catalan government is proposing itself
0:09:54 > 0:09:58to have a referendum in November of this year about independence,
0:09:58 > 0:10:02following the Scottish referendum. Well, the Spanish government is
0:10:02 > 0:10:05very unhappy about Scotland becoming independent but they have never
0:10:05 > 0:10:11said that they would veto Scottish membership of the European Union.
0:10:11 > 0:10:15A lot may depend on how Scotland is viewed by our European neighbours.
0:10:16 > 0:10:21Those patriots out there with high blood pressure should look away now!
0:10:21 > 0:10:24I don't think really that, if we look at Scotland, the other
0:10:24 > 0:10:27countries in the EU care much about Scotland whether it's in or out.
0:10:27 > 0:10:29I mean you have a population here
0:10:29 > 0:10:32which has less than 1.5% of the EU total.
0:10:32 > 0:10:35Contribution to output is only 1.5%.
0:10:35 > 0:10:39We are very small and insignificant unit, country.
0:10:39 > 0:10:43And I do not understand why anybody in the rest of the EU would care
0:10:43 > 0:10:44either way about Scotland.
0:10:44 > 0:10:46Oh, that's fighting talk round my way!
0:10:46 > 0:10:50So would an independent Scotland be blocked from joining
0:10:50 > 0:10:51the European Union?
0:10:51 > 0:10:53That I find almost unthinkable
0:10:53 > 0:10:55because it's just in nobody's interest,
0:10:55 > 0:10:57including the other member states'.
0:10:57 > 0:11:01It wouldn't be in the interest of the United Kingdom or any other
0:11:01 > 0:11:06country to create a big hole in the European internal market.
0:11:06 > 0:11:08Tony Blair then went on...
0:11:08 > 0:11:10Ah yes, the British and Europe.
0:11:10 > 0:11:13UKIP, the UK Independence Party, don't want independence
0:11:13 > 0:11:17for Scotland but they're desperate to break the link with Europe.
0:11:17 > 0:11:20The United Kingdom has got a really problematic reputation
0:11:20 > 0:11:24in Europe just at the moment, because of their grudging membership
0:11:24 > 0:11:27looking over their shoulder to the Eurosceptics.
0:11:27 > 0:11:29Believe it or not,
0:11:29 > 0:11:32in one recent poll, Nigel Farage was voted the top politician in Britain.
0:11:32 > 0:11:35The point is, the European Union is letting in poorer
0:11:35 > 0:11:38and poorer countries, Romania and Bulgaria. But don't forget that the
0:11:38 > 0:11:42European imperialists even want Turkey to join the European Union.
0:11:42 > 0:11:45Could we end up with Scotland knocking at the front door of Europe
0:11:45 > 0:11:47and the rest of the UK bolting out the back?
0:11:47 > 0:11:52On Morning Call we are actually taking a lot of calls about this.
0:11:52 > 0:11:54Can I say that people are daunted by it?
0:11:54 > 0:11:58They are quite scared about it. They are trying to get a grasp of what
0:11:58 > 0:12:02happens in the event of a Yes vote for Scotland? But also afterwards,
0:12:02 > 0:12:06Brian, there is the whole issue of where will the rest of the UK sit...
0:12:06 > 0:12:08- Yes.- ..in relation to the United Kingdom?
0:12:08 > 0:12:11If it's a Conservative government, if it's a Labour government.
0:12:11 > 0:12:13There are so many unknowns.
0:12:13 > 0:12:18- CHANTING:- Scum! Scum! Scum! Scum! Scum! Scum! Scum! Scum! Scum! Scum!
0:12:18 > 0:12:23If Scotland were to vote to stay in and England were to vote to come out,
0:12:23 > 0:12:27you would open the independence question all over again.
0:12:27 > 0:12:31The prospect of the UK being outside the European Union and Scotland
0:12:31 > 0:12:36being inside the European Union raises no end of complications.
0:12:36 > 0:12:40So, at number 9, that was Scotland and EU membership.
0:12:40 > 0:12:43We seem set for a bit of a tussle over Europe.
0:12:43 > 0:12:46The likelihood is that a deal could be done, though the terms
0:12:46 > 0:12:48aren't yet clear.
0:12:48 > 0:12:51But will we have a real fight on our hands over how to
0:12:51 > 0:12:53protect our wee bit hill and glen?
0:13:00 > 0:13:03At number 8, defence.
0:13:03 > 0:13:07We are stronger together. Britain, the United Kingdom
0:13:07 > 0:13:13and Scotland benefit from the scale and the power and the capability
0:13:13 > 0:13:14of our armed forces.
0:13:16 > 0:13:20- How would we defend ourselves? - What kind of army will we have?
0:13:20 > 0:13:22What about Trident?
0:13:22 > 0:13:26The Yes campaign's White Paper has provided some detail
0:13:26 > 0:13:28on what our new defence force would look like.
0:13:28 > 0:13:30It's no Dad's Army.
0:13:30 > 0:13:3315,000 fighting troops, sleek new fighter jets,
0:13:33 > 0:13:37a fleet of frigates, and all for a very affordable £2.5 billion.
0:13:37 > 0:13:40It's actually quite misleading because it does not
0:13:40 > 0:13:43take into consideration the significant start-up costs
0:13:43 > 0:13:47which Scotland will have to bear in terms of a brand-new country.
0:13:47 > 0:13:50You know, a new defence research establishment,
0:13:50 > 0:13:52an officer training establishment a Ministry of Defence,
0:13:52 > 0:13:57an armed forces headquarters, etc. These are very expensive assets
0:13:57 > 0:14:00and much of what Scotland can inherit will be simply down to
0:14:00 > 0:14:03how effective it can actually negotiate
0:14:03 > 0:14:05from the rest of the UK Government.
0:14:05 > 0:14:08On defence, we've spoken to two new academic think-tanks.
0:14:08 > 0:14:10Their critics suggest they are
0:14:10 > 0:14:13either too pro-union or pro-independence.
0:14:13 > 0:14:15See if you can work out which is which.
0:14:15 > 0:14:18The fact is that Scotland has been a part of the UK.
0:14:18 > 0:14:21Scottish taxpayers have contributed towards UK defence
0:14:21 > 0:14:24and so I don't think it's a case of London handing over stuff to
0:14:24 > 0:14:26Scotland as if it's some charitable exercise.
0:14:26 > 0:14:29Let's be absolutely clear here. You know, post-independence,
0:14:29 > 0:14:31all military assets, defence assets
0:14:31 > 0:14:34will legally belong to the UK Government. You know,
0:14:34 > 0:14:38there is no legal obligation on them to negotiate away their assets.
0:14:38 > 0:14:41Even if a deal can be done on conventional weapons,
0:14:41 > 0:14:44that still leaves a scarily explosive elephant
0:14:44 > 0:14:47in the corner of the room that can't be ignored.
0:14:49 > 0:14:52Trident, Trident, Trident - that is how people are viewing
0:14:52 > 0:14:54the issue of defence ahead of the referendum.
0:14:54 > 0:14:57That's as far as they really want to go at the moment
0:14:57 > 0:15:02and they are also appreciating the huge negotiating power that Trident
0:15:02 > 0:15:06would give an SNP government in the event of a Yes vote.
0:15:08 > 0:15:11Except that it appears that it's not on the negotiating table.
0:15:11 > 0:15:15It's going to have to go. The timetable might be open to debate
0:15:15 > 0:15:16but this is not negotiable,
0:15:16 > 0:15:20according to those currently proposing independence.
0:15:20 > 0:15:24The Yes camp say getting rid of Trident would save billions
0:15:24 > 0:15:26that could be better spent on the kind of defence force
0:15:26 > 0:15:30an independent Scotland would actually need.
0:15:30 > 0:15:32What isn't in doubt is the determination
0:15:32 > 0:15:34to say goodbye to Trident.
0:15:35 > 0:15:39- It is an extraordinarily powerful article of faith...- Yes.
0:15:39 > 0:15:42- ..for nationalists.- Gets the biggest applause at the party conference,
0:15:42 > 0:15:44- doesn't it?- Yeah. The Scottish National Party.
0:15:44 > 0:15:48It's almost as entrenched as their belief in independence itself.
0:15:48 > 0:15:51So does a vote for independence really mean an end for Trident?
0:15:51 > 0:15:54I think it overwhelmingly likely that Trident
0:15:54 > 0:15:56will be evicted from Scotland.
0:15:56 > 0:15:59I think it's almost unthinkable, in actual fact, that, politically,
0:15:59 > 0:16:00they would get away with
0:16:00 > 0:16:02actually kind of backtracking on this commitment.
0:16:02 > 0:16:04There is nowhere that the UK Government
0:16:04 > 0:16:06could actually move Trident to.
0:16:06 > 0:16:09There's only three ports, naval ports in the UK that could be
0:16:09 > 0:16:12possible venues for Trident and all three of them
0:16:12 > 0:16:15are unsuitable for a wide variety of reasons.
0:16:15 > 0:16:18They are too close to civilian populations,
0:16:18 > 0:16:20too close to gas plants, etc.
0:16:20 > 0:16:23Of course we can't have our English friends waking up one morning
0:16:23 > 0:16:25to find that they're living next door to a nuclear arsenal.
0:16:25 > 0:16:27Imagine how scary that would be!
0:16:27 > 0:16:31I think that many Scottish citizens might be a wee bit disappointed
0:16:31 > 0:16:34with precisely how Trident negotiations pan out.
0:16:34 > 0:16:36We have maybe kind of six to seven years
0:16:36 > 0:16:38of a time frame to get rid of nuclear weapons.
0:16:38 > 0:16:42Trident will remain on the Clyde for the next 20 years
0:16:42 > 0:16:44being leased by the UK Government
0:16:44 > 0:16:46until it's ready to actually be moved.
0:16:46 > 0:16:48So that's clear then.
0:16:48 > 0:16:52Somewhere between six and 20 years before Trident goes.
0:16:52 > 0:16:54Of course, nuclear weapons aren't much of a defence
0:16:54 > 0:16:57against our most likely enemies these days.
0:16:57 > 0:17:00You can't really launch a Trident missile at a guy with
0:17:00 > 0:17:03a home-made bomb coming at you in a Range Rover.
0:17:03 > 0:17:07I think that it may make perfect sense to argue that
0:17:07 > 0:17:11Scotland would be more secure in terms of maybe being less of
0:17:11 > 0:17:14a terrorist target if it was to be independent but, of course, that'd
0:17:14 > 0:17:18very much depend on what Scotland did as an independent state.
0:17:18 > 0:17:21If an independent Scotland was no longer on the terrorist hit-list,
0:17:21 > 0:17:24would it leave the back door open for the bad guys to
0:17:24 > 0:17:26sneak through and attack England?
0:17:26 > 0:17:29In the eventuality of Scotland becoming independent, there's
0:17:29 > 0:17:32a high probability that there will be a border constructed
0:17:32 > 0:17:36between Scotland and England and there will be border checks
0:17:36 > 0:17:40and this has been articulated to me from the highest levels of the MOD.
0:17:40 > 0:17:42Did he just say what I thought he said?
0:17:42 > 0:17:45There's a high probability that there will be a border
0:17:45 > 0:17:47constructed between Scotland and England.
0:17:47 > 0:17:48Yes, he did.
0:17:48 > 0:17:51An actual former Secretary of Defence told me that this
0:17:51 > 0:17:55is more than likely to actually happen cos the rest of the UK
0:17:55 > 0:17:59simply cannot be open to any sort of vulnerabilities, you know,
0:17:59 > 0:18:04if there are huge intelligence gaps between Scotland and England.
0:18:04 > 0:18:09The idea of manned border posts is the most hysterical scaremongering.
0:18:09 > 0:18:12I consider it grossly irresponsible.
0:18:12 > 0:18:14I suppose it's not surprising
0:18:14 > 0:18:16that, when it comes to life and death issues like security
0:18:16 > 0:18:20and defence, even academics can end up having a wee bit of a rammy.
0:18:22 > 0:18:26Well, the Yes campaign, anything that they disagree with,
0:18:26 > 0:18:27they call it scaremongering.
0:18:27 > 0:18:30It seems to be their favourite word in their lexicon
0:18:30 > 0:18:32so I wouldn't find that surprising.
0:18:32 > 0:18:34But this has come from the highest levels in the MOD.
0:18:35 > 0:18:38So at number 8, that's defence.
0:18:38 > 0:18:41We didn't find many mainstream voices agreeing that there would be
0:18:41 > 0:18:45a need for armed border posts between an independent Scotland and
0:18:45 > 0:18:49the Auld Enemy, but if we do vote for independence it's accepted that
0:18:49 > 0:18:53Scotland could create a new defence force to defend our interests.
0:18:53 > 0:18:56Right, let's get away from all that conflict
0:18:56 > 0:18:58and out into the fresh air to look at something that,
0:18:58 > 0:19:01according to our poll, matters a bit more to you as voters.
0:19:08 > 0:19:10At number 7, energy.
0:19:11 > 0:19:15These resources are unparalleled in the European continent.
0:19:15 > 0:19:18We have 25% of Europe's tidal power potential,
0:19:18 > 0:19:2325% of its offshore wind potential and 10% of its wave potential.
0:19:23 > 0:19:29That's not bad for a nation with less than 1% of Europe's population.
0:19:29 > 0:19:31Will I still be paying through the nose for my heating?
0:19:31 > 0:19:34What will we do if everything goes on the blink?
0:19:34 > 0:19:37Will all this green energy cost us an absolute fortune?
0:19:38 > 0:19:40We keep the lights on and ourselves warm not,
0:19:40 > 0:19:43as our friends down south might think, by relying on a diet
0:19:43 > 0:19:46of chips, Irn Bru and a brisk walk to the pub, nice as that sounds,
0:19:46 > 0:19:51but increasingly by harnessing the power of nature.
0:19:51 > 0:19:53The Scottish Government has often presented
0:19:53 > 0:19:56Scotland as the green capital of Europe.
0:19:56 > 0:19:58There is no doubt that this
0:19:58 > 0:20:00Government in particular has been very ambitious
0:20:00 > 0:20:05particularly in its renewables agenda and what is intriguing about
0:20:05 > 0:20:09that is that that ambition and the level of action that's gone with
0:20:09 > 0:20:14it has taken place in the context of Scotland having very little
0:20:14 > 0:20:18powers, constitutionally, over energy. Under the current devolution
0:20:18 > 0:20:24system, energy is a power that's mainly reserved to the UK level.
0:20:26 > 0:20:29But how much control can the Scottish or the British Governments
0:20:29 > 0:20:31really have over our power supplies?
0:20:31 > 0:20:34Surely it's the big private energy companies making the big
0:20:34 > 0:20:37decisions that affect us most.
0:20:37 > 0:20:40What is bugging people at the moment, clearly, is
0:20:40 > 0:20:44issues around cost of living, particularly the cost of fuel bills
0:20:44 > 0:20:49which, roughly speaking, ten years ago, were half of where
0:20:49 > 0:20:52they are now. They remain very high and they continue to rise,
0:20:52 > 0:20:56and people sense that they're being ripped off by energy companies
0:20:56 > 0:20:59that are deeply unpopular and so they want
0:20:59 > 0:21:01that issue to be addressed.
0:21:01 > 0:21:04That is the one strong message that, whenever we raise the subject of
0:21:04 > 0:21:07energy, that's the one message that is coming across loud and clear.
0:21:07 > 0:21:10There is also an appreciation that alternatives have to be found
0:21:10 > 0:21:14but all I can say is never mention the word wind farm on Morning Call
0:21:14 > 0:21:16- because the phone lines... - The remainder of the programme
0:21:16 > 0:21:19- will be dominated by that.- And the rest of the week if not the month.
0:21:19 > 0:21:23I mean, that is really what gets people's...people going on this.
0:21:23 > 0:21:27They appreciate, yes, there has to be an alternative energy source
0:21:27 > 0:21:31found - that makes sense. But when it comes to actually how we
0:21:31 > 0:21:34go about doing it, that's where the real divisions actually lie.
0:21:34 > 0:21:36Perhaps you should take a leaf out of David Cameron's book
0:21:36 > 0:21:41and get rid of this green crap, as he prosaically called it.
0:21:41 > 0:21:46The SNP have vowed to make Scottish energy 100% renewable by 2020,
0:21:46 > 0:21:49while, down south, David Cameron's enthusiasm for all things
0:21:49 > 0:21:53green seems to be fading. He's the on the right, by the way.
0:21:53 > 0:21:58If the UK government were to decide that it no longer wanted to
0:21:58 > 0:22:00incentivise renewable energy,
0:22:00 > 0:22:02that it no longer was committed to renewable energy,
0:22:02 > 0:22:05I think the Scottish Government would have to look for its own
0:22:05 > 0:22:10solutions and find its own resources to promote
0:22:10 > 0:22:14the kind of renewables agenda that it wants to promote.
0:22:14 > 0:22:17So an independent Scotland might help save the planet
0:22:17 > 0:22:21but what will it mean for one's leccy bill?
0:22:21 > 0:22:23This is an issue they're having to deal with day in, day out
0:22:23 > 0:22:25because, as Douglas was explaining,
0:22:25 > 0:22:27just about the rapid increase and the cost and the way that
0:22:27 > 0:22:31it's actually hitting every family's budget.
0:22:31 > 0:22:35Striking a balance between providing affordable energy and
0:22:35 > 0:22:39protecting the environment will be a challenge whoever ends up in charge.
0:22:39 > 0:22:43Fuel poverty is not just an energy issue, it's a social policy
0:22:43 > 0:22:47and there are clear indications that the Scottish Government,
0:22:47 > 0:22:49certainly an SNP-led Scottish Government,
0:22:49 > 0:22:53I would expect a government in Scotland of any political
0:22:53 > 0:22:58colour would want to address that as part of a broader social package in
0:22:58 > 0:23:01line with the principles of social democracy
0:23:01 > 0:23:03and the broader social agenda.
0:23:05 > 0:23:07So that's energy at number 7.
0:23:07 > 0:23:10The Yes camp are saying a vote for independence means
0:23:10 > 0:23:14I can afford to keep the heating on and we can still save the planet.
0:23:14 > 0:23:15The other side, well,
0:23:15 > 0:23:18they're saying we're better sticking together to keep warm
0:23:18 > 0:23:21and maybe we can only afford to worry about the environment
0:23:21 > 0:23:24once the economy is back on its feet.
0:23:24 > 0:23:26It's all well and good keeping the house warm and the lights on,
0:23:26 > 0:23:28but who's moving in next door?
0:23:34 > 0:23:37At number 6 - immigration.
0:23:37 > 0:23:41We can have this open border, but they say, at the same time,
0:23:41 > 0:23:45that they want to have our immigration policy that is
0:23:45 > 0:23:48widely divergent from that in the rest of the United Kingdom.
0:23:48 > 0:23:51He must think people in Scotland button up the back!
0:23:51 > 0:23:53There will be no border controls
0:23:53 > 0:23:55between an independent Scotland and the rest of the UK!
0:23:55 > 0:23:58VOICES MERGE Will we suddenly be swamped
0:23:58 > 0:23:59with folk from eastern Europe?
0:23:59 > 0:24:01Will they take all our jobs and houses?
0:24:01 > 0:24:04Will Scotland feel like a completely different country?
0:24:05 > 0:24:08In January, we were supposed to be overrun
0:24:08 > 0:24:11by hungry hordes of Romanian and Bulgarian immigrants.
0:24:11 > 0:24:14So far, I've only seen this wee guy called Victor.
0:24:14 > 0:24:16I don't come to rob your country.
0:24:16 > 0:24:20I come to work and you opened the border, I come to work,
0:24:20 > 0:24:21to make money, to go home.
0:24:21 > 0:24:24And after the British tabloids had a go at him,
0:24:24 > 0:24:27even wee Victor has disappeared off the radar.
0:24:27 > 0:24:29Happy New Year, everybody!
0:24:29 > 0:24:31I don't know... Goodbye.
0:24:31 > 0:24:35I think it's quite easy for populist elements
0:24:35 > 0:24:39of the media or party politics to whip up concerns
0:24:39 > 0:24:43around immigration. Immigrants don't create unemployment generally.
0:24:43 > 0:24:46They don't create a particularly high burden on the welfare state.
0:24:46 > 0:24:48And I don't think we can say that immigration is
0:24:48 > 0:24:51responsible for a decline in social cohesion.
0:24:51 > 0:24:54The cross-party consensus says we need migrants.
0:24:54 > 0:24:57Demographics suggest we've got an ageing population.
0:24:57 > 0:25:00We need young to come in, bring all the vibrancy that they do,
0:25:00 > 0:25:04to take on jobs, set up businesses. That's what grows the economy
0:25:04 > 0:25:07and there's lots of evidence that migrants do precisely that.
0:25:07 > 0:25:09But the public aren't entirely convinced.
0:25:09 > 0:25:12People see it in general terms, erm, one wonders whether
0:25:12 > 0:25:15they're quite as welcoming in individual terms
0:25:15 > 0:25:20when immigration comes perhaps to...to confront them.
0:25:20 > 0:25:23The Yes camp say that, in an independent Scotland,
0:25:23 > 0:25:26people from overseas who want "to work and live" here
0:25:26 > 0:25:28would be actively encouraged to come.
0:25:28 > 0:25:31What they propose in the White Paper is not radical.
0:25:31 > 0:25:32I think what they propose is sensible,
0:25:32 > 0:25:35where you attract people that have high levels of skill,
0:25:35 > 0:25:37high levels of earning ability
0:25:37 > 0:25:40and indeed these people, in a sense, drive the economy
0:25:40 > 0:25:42and if we look at the demography of Scotland,
0:25:42 > 0:25:44you know, labour force is not really set to grow very much,
0:25:44 > 0:25:47so immigration will be important expanding the labour force.
0:25:47 > 0:25:50Down south, they're not quite so welcoming.
0:25:50 > 0:25:54We're not like that here... are we?
0:25:54 > 0:25:58Whenever we have this debate about immigration or about race relations,
0:25:58 > 0:26:03we're always told that Scotland is a very tolerant, welcoming society,
0:26:03 > 0:26:08that we've always been grateful for people coming in,
0:26:08 > 0:26:11we're all integrated and, honestly, I think that is a load of baloney.
0:26:11 > 0:26:16I don't think we have the problems of racism
0:26:16 > 0:26:19that exists south of the border
0:26:19 > 0:26:21and it may well be simply because
0:26:21 > 0:26:24we have a much smaller immigrant population.
0:26:24 > 0:26:27I think the difference between Scotland and England,
0:26:27 > 0:26:30or Scotland and the UK, really boils down to the fact
0:26:30 > 0:26:32that there has been less immigration in Scotland
0:26:32 > 0:26:34than the UK for a significant period of time.
0:26:34 > 0:26:37So the fact that it's more tolerant is because there's been less of it.
0:26:37 > 0:26:41That doesn't mean tolerant in the future with more immigration, right?
0:26:41 > 0:26:44So this will be a hurdle they may have to jump later.
0:26:44 > 0:26:49We may not vote for politicians like that lovely guy Nick Griffin,
0:26:49 > 0:26:50but let's not get too smug.
0:26:50 > 0:26:55It's much easier to sell the benefits of labour migration where an economy
0:26:55 > 0:26:58is facing very tangible acute shortages in particular sectors
0:26:58 > 0:27:02or particular regions or for particular types of occupations.
0:27:02 > 0:27:05And it's much easier as well to sell labour migration
0:27:05 > 0:27:09when it's about recruiting highly-skilled migrants.
0:27:09 > 0:27:12I think it's much more difficult for governments to make a case
0:27:12 > 0:27:16or to sell the case for recruiting semi- or low-skilled migrants.
0:27:16 > 0:27:20One recent poll found that more than half of you want to restrict
0:27:20 > 0:27:24the number of immigrants coming in from other EU countries.
0:27:24 > 0:27:27And that same survey claimed that 1 in 10 Scots
0:27:27 > 0:27:29want a total ban on immigration.
0:27:29 > 0:27:32If it were to become a major issue of concern,
0:27:32 > 0:27:36for example, in the context of Romanian and Bulgarian immigration,
0:27:36 > 0:27:40then I would expect the SNP to back off from its claims about
0:27:40 > 0:27:42a more liberal immigration policy,
0:27:42 > 0:27:45or at least not to emphasise those in the election campaign,
0:27:45 > 0:27:47because it clearly wouldn't be a vote winner.
0:27:47 > 0:27:51Immigration may not be very popular amongst some people,
0:27:51 > 0:27:54but the message has to be sent across, and that is important,
0:27:54 > 0:27:57and it's going to be something that, one way or the other,
0:27:57 > 0:28:00we're going to have live with into the future whether
0:28:00 > 0:28:03we're an independent Scotland or whether we remain part of the UK.
0:28:03 > 0:28:06That's Immigration at number 6.
0:28:06 > 0:28:10Most politicians are agreed that, whether independent or not,
0:28:10 > 0:28:14Scotland will need more immigrants, provided they come here to work.
0:28:14 > 0:28:16That's despite the fact that some of you
0:28:16 > 0:28:18may not be too keen on the idea at all.
0:28:20 > 0:28:22We're now halfway through our top ten.
0:28:22 > 0:28:26Our poll found that, at number 10, you've put Broadcasting
0:28:26 > 0:28:28and whether we'll still be able to see EastEnders.
0:28:28 > 0:28:31At number 9, whether or not an independent Scotland
0:28:31 > 0:28:35would be welcomed into the European Union.
0:28:35 > 0:28:38At number 8, how we could still defend ourselves without Trident
0:28:38 > 0:28:40and the might of the British Army.
0:28:40 > 0:28:42At number 7, how our electricity supply
0:28:42 > 0:28:45might be affected by independence.
0:28:45 > 0:28:48And, at number 6, how we would welcome more immigrants
0:28:48 > 0:28:51even when the rest of the UK seems to be saying enough is enough.
0:28:51 > 0:28:55But so far, despite the best efforts of independent experts,
0:28:55 > 0:28:59economists and other academics and, to be honest, the media,
0:28:59 > 0:29:04lots of you still seem desperate for clear pointers on how to vote.
0:29:05 > 0:29:07I understand, don't get me wrong, I really understand
0:29:07 > 0:29:10why people want precision, because they have to give a precise answer.
0:29:10 > 0:29:14They have to place their mark against one choice or the other.
0:29:14 > 0:29:16Precision is impossible in politics and it is in this one.
0:29:16 > 0:29:19Maybe it's all the fault of the polls.
0:29:19 > 0:29:21No, not those nice people from Poland.
0:29:21 > 0:29:24I'm talking about the annoying eejits who keep ringing up to ask,
0:29:24 > 0:29:25"How are you planning to vote?"
0:29:25 > 0:29:28It's partly the responsibility of opinion pollsters
0:29:28 > 0:29:31asking questions, such as, "Would you vote for independence
0:29:31 > 0:29:35"if you were £500 a year better off?" which seems a rather trivial reason
0:29:35 > 0:29:37for changing the whole constitution of the country.
0:29:37 > 0:29:41But it just shows that people are not getting convincing arguments.
0:29:41 > 0:29:43Exactly!
0:29:43 > 0:29:46At least our exclusive poll makes it clear
0:29:46 > 0:29:49which of these ten fundamental issues matter most to you.
0:29:53 > 0:29:56At number 5, Currency.
0:29:56 > 0:29:59We can make both an independent Scotland work for the benefit
0:29:59 > 0:30:02of the Scottish people and we can have the institutional arrangements
0:30:02 > 0:30:05in keeping the pound work for the Scottish people as well.
0:30:05 > 0:30:09The Nationalists say they want to re-enter a sort of currency union,
0:30:09 > 0:30:12where they'll be told what to do in terms of tax and spending.
0:30:12 > 0:30:15Now, that's a very funny form of independence.
0:30:15 > 0:30:18VOICES MERGE Are we keeping the pound or whit?
0:30:18 > 0:30:20Will we have to join the Euro?
0:30:20 > 0:30:22Why don't we just get our own currency?
0:30:22 > 0:30:25I don't know about you, but I know as much about currency
0:30:25 > 0:30:28as I do about the Scottish cricket team. Sorry, lads!
0:30:28 > 0:30:31Not many people understand monetary policy
0:30:31 > 0:30:33and how interest rates fluctuate and so on,
0:30:33 > 0:30:36but when it comes down to the currency in your pocket,
0:30:36 > 0:30:38more importantly, the currency in your bank account,
0:30:38 > 0:30:42what you earn, what your pension's in, this does matter to people.
0:30:42 > 0:30:45- Even- I- understand that, when it comes to currency,
0:30:45 > 0:30:47there are three basic options.
0:30:47 > 0:30:51One is that Scotland stays part of the pound. That has the advantage
0:30:51 > 0:30:55that you don't need to change your money when you cross the border,
0:30:55 > 0:30:58and that trading relationships that we've got used to
0:30:58 > 0:31:03will pretty much, er, continue without any added cost.
0:31:03 > 0:31:06It might be the simplest way of moving things forward,
0:31:06 > 0:31:09but isn't it a wee bit odd for a newly-independent country
0:31:09 > 0:31:11to want to share its currency with the Auld Enemy
0:31:11 > 0:31:15and have Scottish interest rates set by the Bank of England?
0:31:15 > 0:31:18People just cannot quite get their heads round this.
0:31:18 > 0:31:21How can we call ourselves independent and yet still
0:31:21 > 0:31:23have this relationship with the Bank of England?
0:31:23 > 0:31:25The pound sterling is what we all recognise.
0:31:25 > 0:31:29It's what most of us grew up with. It's how we measure ourselves.
0:31:29 > 0:31:32It's how we define ourselves and I think when...
0:31:32 > 0:31:36the SNP came out and said that that was their intention,
0:31:36 > 0:31:38there was a kind of relaxing of the shoulders!
0:31:38 > 0:31:41We thought, "OK, fair enough, but then what?"
0:31:41 > 0:31:44And that's when issues very quickly moved on to, as I was saying,
0:31:44 > 0:31:47the issues surrounding our relationship with the Bank of England.
0:31:49 > 0:31:52Isn't the Bank of England's first responsibility to England...?
0:31:52 > 0:31:53Er, I mean, the UK!
0:31:53 > 0:31:56Well, the rest of the UK! Not Scotland anyway!
0:31:56 > 0:31:58- Good morning, Mr Carney. - Good morning. How are you?
0:31:58 > 0:32:02When the new Governor popped up to say hello to our First Minister,
0:32:02 > 0:32:05presumably Alex told him it's our pound too, right?
0:32:06 > 0:32:08It's as much Scotland's pound as it is the UK's pound
0:32:08 > 0:32:13is an attractive slogan, very easy to get, erm...and something that
0:32:13 > 0:32:16intuitively everybody in Scotland would say, "Yes, it IS my pound."
0:32:16 > 0:32:19However, it's difficult to understand what that means in practice.
0:32:19 > 0:32:22The Bank of England has to set interest rate policy
0:32:22 > 0:32:26to reflect the capacity of UK taxpayers to support its borrowings.
0:32:26 > 0:32:29The duty of care it would have would be to UK taxpayers,
0:32:29 > 0:32:31or the remaining UK taxpayers,
0:32:31 > 0:32:35and that might not be what would be in Scotland's best interests.
0:32:35 > 0:32:38A durable successful currency union
0:32:38 > 0:32:41requires some ceding of national sovereignty.
0:32:41 > 0:32:43The Yes Scotland and Better Together camps
0:32:43 > 0:32:46have both taken comfort from Mark Carney's visit.
0:32:46 > 0:32:49Yes Scotland remain confident that a deal can be done on sterling.
0:32:49 > 0:32:51Better Together say the Governor's statement
0:32:51 > 0:32:53means currency union is "unworkable".
0:32:53 > 0:32:54That's it. It's over!
0:32:57 > 0:32:59If they won't share sterling with us,
0:32:59 > 0:33:02we would still have some alternatives, wouldn't we?
0:33:02 > 0:33:05If it proved impossible to share the pound sterling,
0:33:05 > 0:33:08on the terms proposed by the Scottish Government,
0:33:08 > 0:33:12then the other option might be to establish its own currency.
0:33:12 > 0:33:14Our own wee pound! That sounds great!
0:33:14 > 0:33:16Or maybe not.
0:33:16 > 0:33:18Scotland could launch its own currency.
0:33:18 > 0:33:21It would give it absolute power over all the financial levers,
0:33:21 > 0:33:23all the fiscal levers that are currently being called for,
0:33:23 > 0:33:25and there's nothing to stop it doing that.
0:33:25 > 0:33:27The issue for Scotland would be -
0:33:27 > 0:33:31how does it get a track record with the money markets?
0:33:31 > 0:33:33And that's the critical thing here.
0:33:33 > 0:33:38Scotland has to borrow from day one to fund its current spending plans.
0:33:38 > 0:33:39To borrow money in the money markets,
0:33:39 > 0:33:41you have to have a credit rating.
0:33:41 > 0:33:45To get a credit rating, you have to a history in financial management,
0:33:45 > 0:33:46prudent financial management.
0:33:46 > 0:33:49The Scottish Government's position at the moment
0:33:49 > 0:33:52is that it doesn't have a plan B. Sterling is going to work.
0:33:52 > 0:33:55But if Scotland isn't allowed to share the pound
0:33:55 > 0:33:58with the rest of the UK, and doesn't introduce its own currency,
0:33:58 > 0:34:01surely that means there's only one other option left?
0:34:01 > 0:34:04The last option is to join the Euro.
0:34:04 > 0:34:09A lot of that depends on whether, er...
0:34:09 > 0:34:13what conditions the European Union might set
0:34:13 > 0:34:17and whether they really believe in these conditions
0:34:17 > 0:34:20and would like to force Scotland to stick with them.
0:34:20 > 0:34:25There are other countries that seem to have made promises to join
0:34:25 > 0:34:28the Euro, but don't seem to have followed through on these promises.
0:34:28 > 0:34:30- GUNSHOTS - The Euro?!
0:34:30 > 0:34:32Mmm, I don't think so!
0:34:32 > 0:34:35Look what being in the Euro did for the Irish, and the Spanish
0:34:35 > 0:34:37and the poor old Greeks!
0:34:37 > 0:34:41I suspect that, er, the Scottish Government,
0:34:41 > 0:34:43at least in the present circumstances,
0:34:43 > 0:34:48would try to avoid going anywhere close to the Euro.
0:34:48 > 0:34:50So with currency, our number 5,
0:34:50 > 0:34:54it's No to the Euro, and No to our own wee pound.
0:34:54 > 0:34:56The Yes camp argue that, when it comes down to it,
0:34:56 > 0:35:00the rest of the UK will ultimately see sense about sterling,
0:35:00 > 0:35:03and recognise and accept that it's our pound too.
0:35:03 > 0:35:06This seems like the right time to consider how our relationship
0:35:06 > 0:35:09with our nearest and often far from dearest neighbour might be
0:35:09 > 0:35:11affected by a vote for independence.
0:35:14 > 0:35:18At number 4 - our relationship with the rest of the UK.
0:35:18 > 0:35:21We're better served by having the best of both worlds.
0:35:21 > 0:35:25We've got devolution of powers with education and health
0:35:25 > 0:35:28and the Scottish Parliament, but we're also part of something bigger.
0:35:28 > 0:35:31Am I going to have to show my passport at the border?
0:35:31 > 0:35:34Will all British companies leave Scotland?
0:35:34 > 0:35:37Will WE become foreigners to the English?
0:35:37 > 0:35:40After more than 300 years, we've learned to live
0:35:40 > 0:35:42with our friends in the South, through good times...
0:35:44 > 0:35:46..and bad.
0:35:46 > 0:35:49When we come to this issue of relations with the rest of the UK,
0:35:49 > 0:35:52we're coming to a debate about the fundamental nature of the offer
0:35:52 > 0:35:55from the SNP and the Scottish government. The offer itself is
0:35:55 > 0:35:59a pragmatic one, the offer is one of building upon the existing
0:35:59 > 0:36:01powers of the Scottish Parliament
0:36:01 > 0:36:04and arguing a fundamental case, as the SNP put it, that decisions
0:36:04 > 0:36:07for the people of Scotland are best taken by those who live here.
0:36:07 > 0:36:11We may struggle to understand one another...
0:36:11 > 0:36:13POLICEMAN: Where you going?!
0:36:13 > 0:36:16..but it doesn't help when our friends down south won't tell us
0:36:16 > 0:36:20what they'll do if we decide to break away.
0:36:20 > 0:36:23I think it's natural that the No camp wouldn't tell us what they're
0:36:23 > 0:36:26going to do in the event of a Yes vote. They don't want to countenance
0:36:26 > 0:36:29the scenario where Scotland does vote in favour of independence.
0:36:29 > 0:36:33I think if Scotland does vote in favour of independence, I think
0:36:33 > 0:36:37south of the border, the rest of the UK would quite rapidly swing into
0:36:37 > 0:36:42line and be quite pragmatic about negotiating a future settlement.
0:36:42 > 0:36:44Because it would simply be in the interest of the rest of the UK
0:36:44 > 0:36:47to make sure this then transitions smoothly.
0:36:47 > 0:36:50Maybe so, but when push comes to shove isn't it likely that
0:36:50 > 0:36:54both governments will always put their own people's interests first?
0:36:54 > 0:36:57Even if that means putting the other side's nose out of joint.
0:36:57 > 0:36:59The really big issue is that
0:36:59 > 0:37:03so much of the Scottish Government's independence prospectus
0:37:03 > 0:37:07involves a continuing relationship with the rest of the UK.
0:37:07 > 0:37:11One of the old chestnuts in the debate about Scottish independence
0:37:11 > 0:37:14going back years and years and years, is the idea that a physical border
0:37:14 > 0:37:19would be set up and you'd need a passport to get to England.
0:37:19 > 0:37:22I think that's pretty much unthinkable.
0:37:22 > 0:37:26So the chances are that you won't have to show a passport to a soldier
0:37:26 > 0:37:30with a gun each time you want to nip down to Carlisle for a wee bit of shopping.
0:37:30 > 0:37:35If we were in a situation where two states shared an island
0:37:35 > 0:37:38with all sorts of economic interdependencies, with all sorts of
0:37:38 > 0:37:41security interdependencies,
0:37:41 > 0:37:44with all sorts of social and family relationships
0:37:44 > 0:37:49across the border, there... there is a pretty strong expectation
0:37:49 > 0:37:54that the instinct of both governments would be an amicable one.
0:37:54 > 0:37:55Amicable?
0:37:55 > 0:37:58After all those arguments and rows and votes and referendums?
0:37:58 > 0:38:00Or is it referenda?
0:38:00 > 0:38:02Ach, you know what I mean.
0:38:02 > 0:38:07Of course we are going to have a UK election in May 2015,
0:38:07 > 0:38:11which will be slap-bang in the middle of that period
0:38:11 > 0:38:14when the two governments would be negotiating
0:38:14 > 0:38:17the terms of independence if we vote Yes this September.
0:38:17 > 0:38:18A change of government
0:38:18 > 0:38:23could really change the tone of those negotiations.
0:38:23 > 0:38:25Despite all the disagreements and rhetoric...
0:38:25 > 0:38:27Thank you very much.
0:38:27 > 0:38:30..most reasonable people think things could be settled...
0:38:30 > 0:38:32well, reasonably.
0:38:32 > 0:38:35The current situation where the UK government has agreed with
0:38:35 > 0:38:37the Scottish government that whatever the result
0:38:37 > 0:38:42of the referendum, they will abide by it and seek to implement
0:38:42 > 0:38:44the views of the Scottish voter,
0:38:44 > 0:38:47is a quite remarkable one.
0:38:47 > 0:38:51And I think it testifies to - if we do vote Yes -
0:38:51 > 0:38:55to a relationship between the rest of the UK and Scotland, which would
0:38:55 > 0:39:00be a bit different to relationships between most independent states.
0:39:00 > 0:39:04If Scotland does vote Yes, the relationship between the UK
0:39:04 > 0:39:07and Scotland would not be the same as that between the UK
0:39:07 > 0:39:11and Bulgaria, or the UK and Zimbabwe.
0:39:11 > 0:39:15That's if it's a Yes vote. But what happens if the majority of us
0:39:15 > 0:39:17decide to vote No?
0:39:17 > 0:39:19Will everything remain the same?
0:39:19 > 0:39:22What I'm hearing is that people are becoming increasingly
0:39:22 > 0:39:24frustrated because they are not getting the answers.
0:39:24 > 0:39:28- We had the publication of the white paper in November... - If No, then what?
0:39:28 > 0:39:30..here we are in February, they've been asking for it
0:39:30 > 0:39:33between then and now. they're not getting the answers
0:39:33 > 0:39:35and they are becoming increasingly frustrated.
0:39:35 > 0:39:39One of the really interesting questions in this debate
0:39:39 > 0:39:41is what No means.
0:39:41 > 0:39:44We know an awful lot more now about what Yes might mean, following
0:39:44 > 0:39:48the white paper, we are not yet that clear on what No might mean.
0:39:49 > 0:39:52The Yes camp warn that a No vote could mean yet more
0:39:52 > 0:39:56years of Tory rule despite the fact that at the last general election
0:39:56 > 0:39:59we only elected one Tory MP.
0:39:59 > 0:40:02That's one out of 59!
0:40:02 > 0:40:04Aspiration, opportunity.
0:40:04 > 0:40:07These are words, these are dreams.
0:40:07 > 0:40:09In the event of a substantial
0:40:09 > 0:40:11and sort of resounding victory for the No campaign,
0:40:11 > 0:40:14because there's such a small proportion of the electorate that
0:40:14 > 0:40:17votes for the Conservative party in particular, I think we would
0:40:17 > 0:40:20see a sense of frustration that...
0:40:20 > 0:40:22that the UK government as a whole
0:40:22 > 0:40:26wasn't effectively representing the spread of Scottish public opinion.
0:40:26 > 0:40:30So at number 4 in our chart, that's our relationship
0:40:30 > 0:40:31with the rest of the UK.
0:40:31 > 0:40:34Most impartial observers don't think we'd end up
0:40:34 > 0:40:36with a border checkpoint.
0:40:36 > 0:40:39The real challenge may come if Scotland votes No
0:40:39 > 0:40:42and that means continuing to have key decisions made for us
0:40:42 > 0:40:46hundreds of miles away, by politicians we haven't elected.
0:40:46 > 0:40:49For the hundreds of thousands of Scots living in poverty,
0:40:49 > 0:40:52arguments about constitutional politics don't matter
0:40:52 > 0:40:57quite as much as what's going to happen to their benefits.
0:41:00 > 0:41:04At number 3 - welfare.
0:41:04 > 0:41:07The key thing for me in terms of welfare is the ability to design
0:41:07 > 0:41:10a welfare system that suits Scotland's needs and circumstances.
0:41:10 > 0:41:13I think the Scottish people need to know. Very simple question.
0:41:13 > 0:41:17There's more spending in Scotland on welfare than there is in other parts of England, some parts of England.
0:41:17 > 0:41:20Question is, how are you going to cover that gap?
0:41:20 > 0:41:22Will my housing benefit go down?
0:41:22 > 0:41:25Will I still be paying for all those skivers on the broo?
0:41:25 > 0:41:27What happens if I'm too sick to work?
0:41:27 > 0:41:30You might think of it as a badge of honour,
0:41:30 > 0:41:32an emblem of a caring society,
0:41:32 > 0:41:35or as a burden on hard-working taxpayers,
0:41:35 > 0:41:37but our welfare system
0:41:37 > 0:41:41is one of the most important and expensive challenges to our future.
0:41:41 > 0:41:44The Department for Work and Pensions spends over £15 billion
0:41:44 > 0:41:46in Scotland on welfare.
0:41:46 > 0:41:48It's a massive, massive, erm...
0:41:48 > 0:41:53budget. We spend slightly more per head in Scotland than is the case
0:41:53 > 0:41:57in the UK as a whole, about £300 or £400 per head more.
0:41:57 > 0:42:00Most of our welfare bill goes on care for the elderly
0:42:00 > 0:42:02and the disabled
0:42:02 > 0:42:06but the political row about welfare centres on the low-paid
0:42:06 > 0:42:07and the unemployed.
0:42:07 > 0:42:10The Scottish government and the broader Yes campaign
0:42:10 > 0:42:14have hinted that an independent Scotland would produce and run
0:42:14 > 0:42:17a very different kind of welfare system.
0:42:17 > 0:42:19A very different kind of social security system
0:42:19 > 0:42:23that would be more egalitarian and more generous, perhaps, on expenditure.
0:42:23 > 0:42:27Older people, actually, have been pretty much protected
0:42:27 > 0:42:31since the beginning of the recession, against cuts in their real
0:42:31 > 0:42:36living standards, whereas what has happened in terms of welfare cuts
0:42:36 > 0:42:39has mainly affected the working poor.
0:42:39 > 0:42:43That's those of us who work for low or minimum wages
0:42:43 > 0:42:46and still need a bit of help from the state.
0:42:46 > 0:42:49The working poor are at the heart of the welfare debate.
0:42:49 > 0:42:51These are people who are working
0:42:51 > 0:42:55but actually are classified as poor using the standard definition.
0:42:55 > 0:43:00And these people, I think perhaps justifiably, resent...
0:43:00 > 0:43:05people who are not working, receiving generous levels of benefits.
0:43:05 > 0:43:08Down south, you hear lots of angry talk about dole scroungers
0:43:08 > 0:43:09and welfare cheats.
0:43:09 > 0:43:11We like to think we're more tolerant up here
0:43:11 > 0:43:15but would that change if we were in charge of the money?
0:43:15 > 0:43:19The story we tell about ourselves in Scotland is, we will do more,
0:43:19 > 0:43:22particularly than the English. Those arguing for independence
0:43:22 > 0:43:24want to pick up on a sense that we've got in Scotland
0:43:24 > 0:43:26that we're different.
0:43:26 > 0:43:29particularly on this social democratic aim of
0:43:29 > 0:43:33providing a safety net. The welfare system is seen as a means of
0:43:33 > 0:43:37supporting people who are less well off, unfortunate, fallen on hard times.
0:43:37 > 0:43:40Well, there is a huge amount of rhetoric, isn't there?
0:43:40 > 0:43:42Of course, all these things depend upon
0:43:42 > 0:43:45the economic situation in the country.
0:43:45 > 0:43:50I think it's... very easy for people to promise jam tomorrow.
0:43:50 > 0:43:52I think it is intriguing that the SNP
0:43:52 > 0:43:55and Scottish government go a certain degree on welfare benefits
0:43:55 > 0:43:59but they don't go wholly down the road of... of making them
0:43:59 > 0:44:03particularly more generous than is currently the case.
0:44:03 > 0:44:06They are cautious and I think they are cautious because I think they know
0:44:06 > 0:44:10that perhaps the views on welfare - while differing somewhat -
0:44:10 > 0:44:13are not that, perhaps, radically different
0:44:13 > 0:44:15than is the case elsewhere.
0:44:15 > 0:44:18The Scots are more willing to be generous through the welfare system,
0:44:18 > 0:44:20but not by much.
0:44:20 > 0:44:23Your concerns about welfare pushed it to number 3 on our chart.
0:44:23 > 0:44:27The latest Social Attitudes Survey found that, like our English
0:44:27 > 0:44:32cousins, many of us don't want the unemployed to get higher benefits.
0:44:32 > 0:44:35But you're even more concerned to make sure that our old folk
0:44:35 > 0:44:37are looked after in an uncertain future.
0:44:41 > 0:44:43At number 2 - pensions.
0:44:43 > 0:44:48On oil, they're worried, on public service jobs, they are alarmed
0:44:48 > 0:44:50and on pensions, they're panicking.
0:44:50 > 0:44:54We have more ability to protect the people of Scotland
0:44:54 > 0:44:56in terms of social provision.
0:44:58 > 0:45:00I don't want to have to work till I'm 90.
0:45:00 > 0:45:02Will I even get a pension?
0:45:02 > 0:45:06If we keep paying for all the old'uns, what's left for the young'uns?
0:45:07 > 0:45:09Scotland has even more people of pensionable age than
0:45:09 > 0:45:13the rest of the UK and we're all living longer.
0:45:13 > 0:45:16So our pension bill is set to go through the roof, just as we're
0:45:16 > 0:45:19being asked to decide whether or not to opt for independence.
0:45:19 > 0:45:23State pension costs just over £6 billion at the moment
0:45:23 > 0:45:27and our receipts from income tax are just over £10 billion.
0:45:27 > 0:45:30So you're putting a pretty large chunk of your main source of...
0:45:30 > 0:45:35of revenue towards erm, state pensions.
0:45:35 > 0:45:38Both the Yes camp and Better Together promise that
0:45:38 > 0:45:40pensions will be protected.
0:45:40 > 0:45:44Why are they so desperate to keep the oldies on side?
0:45:44 > 0:45:48Pensioners in Scotland are a disparate bunch.
0:45:48 > 0:45:52They are of different outlook, they are of different origins,
0:45:52 > 0:45:56they have different incomes, they have different social status
0:45:56 > 0:45:58but they have one big thing in common,
0:45:58 > 0:46:01which is that they tend to vote.
0:46:01 > 0:46:02To keep the old ones sweet,
0:46:02 > 0:46:06all the politicians have made virtually identical commitments.
0:46:06 > 0:46:09What we put in place in this government is this triple lock.
0:46:09 > 0:46:14The triple lock is an essential part of the contract of society with pensioners.
0:46:14 > 0:46:18Nobody should be in any doubt about my commitment to the triple lock on pensions
0:46:18 > 0:46:22The triple lock is a promise to pensioners
0:46:22 > 0:46:24that their pensions - their state pensions -
0:46:24 > 0:46:28will grow by the biggest of 2.5%
0:46:28 > 0:46:29the rate of growth of earnings,
0:46:29 > 0:46:32the rate of growth of prices. Whichever is
0:46:32 > 0:46:37the biggest of these three will be applied to the state pension.
0:46:37 > 0:46:39This guarantee means committing an ever-increasing chunk
0:46:39 > 0:46:44of our precious national revenues to keeping pensioners happy.
0:46:44 > 0:46:48That is quite a big promise because if the economy isn't
0:46:48 > 0:46:52doing very well, then earnings won't be growing very fast and
0:46:52 > 0:46:57pensions will be taking a bigger and bigger proportion of the tax pot.
0:46:57 > 0:47:00Now, this is a promise that the Institute for Fiscal Studies in
0:47:00 > 0:47:06London has argued is very difficult for the UK government to make.
0:47:06 > 0:47:11I guess the same argument must apply to the Scottish government.
0:47:12 > 0:47:13And it's not just state pensions
0:47:13 > 0:47:18that keep politicians on their toes when chasing the grey vote.
0:47:18 > 0:47:20I suspect a lot of the concern, if you poll people,
0:47:20 > 0:47:23and they put pensioners very high up in their list of concerns
0:47:23 > 0:47:26- is because of what has happened with private pensions.- That's right.
0:47:26 > 0:47:29Absolutely. That's the one message that we are getting -
0:47:29 > 0:47:32people want guarantees. They need to know how this is going to work
0:47:32 > 0:47:34and how much it's going to cost.
0:47:34 > 0:47:36That's pensions at number 2.
0:47:36 > 0:47:38Fretting about the pound in your granny's purse
0:47:38 > 0:47:40is really just part of a far bigger concern.
0:47:40 > 0:47:44In fact, it's the one issue set to dominate how many of us
0:47:44 > 0:47:48ultimately will decide how to cast our vote in September.
0:47:48 > 0:47:51Before we reveal our number 1, here's a reminder of our poll
0:47:51 > 0:47:54asking which of these ten fundamental issues
0:47:54 > 0:47:58matter most when you decide whether to vote Yes or No.
0:48:00 > 0:48:02At number 10, broadcasting.
0:48:02 > 0:48:06At number 9, our relationship with the European Union.
0:48:06 > 0:48:09At number 8, defence.
0:48:09 > 0:48:12At number 7, energy.
0:48:12 > 0:48:15At number 6, immigration.
0:48:15 > 0:48:18At number 5, currency.
0:48:18 > 0:48:21At number 4, our relationship with the rest of the UK.
0:48:21 > 0:48:24At number 3, welfare.
0:48:24 > 0:48:26At number 2, pensions.
0:48:26 > 0:48:29And this week and for all foreseeable weeks
0:48:29 > 0:48:31between now and September 18,
0:48:31 > 0:48:35it's far and away the most important issue for voters in the referendum.
0:48:35 > 0:48:38And your number 1 - the economy.
0:48:38 > 0:48:42SALMOND: Our message today is give Scotland the economic tools
0:48:42 > 0:48:47so's that we can do the job to build a successful independent nation.
0:48:47 > 0:48:50The idea we've been held back is simply nonsense.
0:48:50 > 0:48:53The Yes camp's promise is that a vote for independence
0:48:53 > 0:48:56means throwing off the shackles and taking control of our own destiny.
0:48:56 > 0:49:00Even critical economists say that may be possible.
0:49:00 > 0:49:04The problem is, no-one can be sure how long it would take.
0:49:04 > 0:49:09As an economist it's extremely difficult to argue
0:49:09 > 0:49:11that Scotland couldn't be independent.
0:49:11 > 0:49:13It could, and it could pay its way.
0:49:13 > 0:49:17For me it comes down to how long will it take
0:49:17 > 0:49:19to get from where we are now,
0:49:19 > 0:49:21to the world that says, "I am fundamentally better off."
0:49:21 > 0:49:25I don't know whether that is a short-term, medium-term or long-term outlook.
0:49:25 > 0:49:29The problem with economics is that it's not an exact science,
0:49:29 > 0:49:33and anyone looking for straight answers is in for a disappointment.
0:49:33 > 0:49:37I have had a long history in economic forecasting
0:49:37 > 0:49:41and I have become increasingly reluctant over the years
0:49:41 > 0:49:45to make assertions about where the Scottish economy might be going.
0:49:45 > 0:49:50There might be the possibility of substantial growth
0:49:50 > 0:49:54over and above what the UK can manage in the future.
0:49:54 > 0:50:00Er, looking at the past, the evidence isn't there,
0:50:00 > 0:50:03but, you know, things might massively change
0:50:03 > 0:50:05and I would be the last person
0:50:05 > 0:50:11to make a confident prediction about that. Things could change.
0:50:11 > 0:50:15No wonder they call economics "the dismal science".
0:50:15 > 0:50:19We want certainty, we want to know exactly what the consequences
0:50:19 > 0:50:22of independence would be, but I am afraid we can't know that.
0:50:22 > 0:50:28We know for sure that pretty much every economic forecast ever done
0:50:28 > 0:50:30has ultimately been wrong,
0:50:30 > 0:50:35it's not been 100% accurate. You cannot project with 100% accuracy.
0:50:35 > 0:50:39Ah, yes. Remember, virtually every economist failed to predict
0:50:39 > 0:50:41the banking meltdown back in 2008
0:50:41 > 0:50:44and all the economic chaos that followed.
0:50:44 > 0:50:48The other context to this debate I think it's vital to recognise
0:50:48 > 0:50:51is that it comes six or so years
0:50:51 > 0:50:55into the most profound economic problems
0:50:55 > 0:50:57that any of us have experienced.
0:50:57 > 0:51:00Er, and we are still a long way from getting through them,
0:51:00 > 0:51:03so there is insecurity with which people will approach this vote.
0:51:04 > 0:51:07I make an unqualified apology for all of the distress
0:51:07 > 0:51:09that has been caused.
0:51:09 > 0:51:12I would not wish there to be any doubt about that.
0:51:12 > 0:51:15Mmm. Bankers' apologies are probably about as much use
0:51:15 > 0:51:18as economists' predictions on what might happen
0:51:18 > 0:51:21if we vote Yes or No on Independence.
0:51:21 > 0:51:22Those in the Don't Know camp
0:51:22 > 0:51:24I think are now feeling that they have got...
0:51:24 > 0:51:27There is an awful lot of information out there.
0:51:27 > 0:51:29Probably some are beginning to panic
0:51:29 > 0:51:31that "How on earth am I going to make up my mind?",
0:51:31 > 0:51:33to decide not just for the short-term but also for
0:51:33 > 0:51:36the long-term and for their children and their children's children.
0:51:36 > 0:51:40Did you ever feel like you might be sitting in on a game of cards
0:51:40 > 0:51:44where everything you own is at stake but you haven't been told the rules?
0:51:44 > 0:51:48It's about bargaining again, and it's, you know, what are the debts,
0:51:48 > 0:51:51what are the assets, what is the currency, all of this...
0:51:51 > 0:51:56All of these issues are going to come into the bargaining
0:51:56 > 0:52:01post the referendum and I think it's a question
0:52:01 > 0:52:05of not revealing your hand, it's a game of poker.
0:52:05 > 0:52:07It's not democracy.
0:52:07 > 0:52:09The thing about poker is,
0:52:09 > 0:52:12not even the experts can really tell you how the cards will fall.
0:52:12 > 0:52:14Reporting from the front line of public opinion
0:52:14 > 0:52:18means bumping up against all that public anxiety.
0:52:18 > 0:52:21People are interested in the issues,
0:52:21 > 0:52:24but I think quite genuinely from what people are telling me
0:52:24 > 0:52:27is that they are getting fairly fed up
0:52:27 > 0:52:29with the roundabout nature of the debate.
0:52:29 > 0:52:34People want a sum done as to whether they would personally be better off,
0:52:34 > 0:52:37they want somebody to do the sum for them.
0:52:37 > 0:52:40It's an understandable request because they are anxious
0:52:40 > 0:52:43and concerned and fretful and determined to get to the facts,
0:52:43 > 0:52:45but yet we can't offer a sum, as journalists.
0:52:45 > 0:52:49If journalists can't help with the sums, surely the economists can?
0:52:49 > 0:52:53The UK has about, or will have by 2016,
0:52:53 > 0:52:56about £1.6 trillion worth of debt.
0:52:56 > 0:52:58It's a massive amount of debt.
0:52:58 > 0:53:02It's more than it's had in peacetime, I think,
0:53:02 > 0:53:04for centuries, almost.
0:53:04 > 0:53:08Now, this is bad as far as an independent Scotland is concerned,
0:53:08 > 0:53:11because it means that if it takes a share of that debt,
0:53:11 > 0:53:14then it will be large relative to the ability
0:53:14 > 0:53:16of the Scottish economy to produce.
0:53:16 > 0:53:20Question is, what share would it take?
0:53:20 > 0:53:24The thing is, we simply can't know what our share of the UK's debt
0:53:24 > 0:53:26or its resources would be
0:53:26 > 0:53:29until after the votes in September are counted.
0:53:29 > 0:53:32And even then, only if it's a Yes.
0:53:32 > 0:53:37Scotland currently gets its share of North Sea revenues
0:53:37 > 0:53:40through a mechanism called the Barnett formula which basically
0:53:40 > 0:53:43means the UK Exchequer transfers funds to Scotland.
0:53:43 > 0:53:47It gets a per-capita share of the North Sea tax revenues.
0:53:47 > 0:53:50An independent Scotland
0:53:50 > 0:53:52would receive 90% of the North Sea tax revenues
0:53:52 > 0:53:54accruing to the UK Exchequer to date.
0:53:56 > 0:53:59I think this means that if we vote for independence
0:53:59 > 0:54:01we'd get nearly all of the oil money.
0:54:01 > 0:54:04But we'd no longer get any money from London.
0:54:04 > 0:54:10At the moment the value of the North Sea tax revenues
0:54:10 > 0:54:15are about the same as the transfer payments the UK Exchequer makes.
0:54:15 > 0:54:20But as they start to decline, then the value of North Sea tax revenues
0:54:20 > 0:54:24to Scotland are less than the value of the transfer payments currently
0:54:24 > 0:54:27being made by the UK Exchequer to the Scottish government.
0:54:27 > 0:54:31What I think THIS means is that an independent Scotland
0:54:31 > 0:54:34may find that oil in the future may bring in less money
0:54:34 > 0:54:37than we currently get for staying in the Union.
0:54:37 > 0:54:40I think. I told you this was hard!
0:54:40 > 0:54:45A lot of these issues are very technical, very complex,
0:54:45 > 0:54:48and while we can offer some information,
0:54:48 > 0:54:52we can't offer, on a lot of them, full certainty,
0:54:52 > 0:54:55so I do feel that a lot of the electorate
0:54:55 > 0:55:00find the whole business pretty confusing.
0:55:00 > 0:55:04Yeah, you said it. When all's said and done,
0:55:04 > 0:55:06it seems to come down to one simple question.
0:55:06 > 0:55:10Will I be better or worse off in an independent Scotland?
0:55:10 > 0:55:14One of the things that comes out of surveys quite regularly
0:55:14 > 0:55:17is that people are desperate for clarity.
0:55:17 > 0:55:19For information, for facts
0:55:19 > 0:55:22about the consequences of independence.
0:55:22 > 0:55:26And of course, both sides will try to give their version of facts,
0:55:26 > 0:55:29but it's very difficult for either campaign
0:55:29 > 0:55:33to be to be crystal clear, because there is so much uncertainty.
0:55:33 > 0:55:37The politicians select the information that suits them
0:55:37 > 0:55:42for one side or another and a lot of these things are just unknowable.
0:55:42 > 0:55:44We're talking about the future,
0:55:44 > 0:55:46what might happen under certain circumstances,
0:55:46 > 0:55:50and so everybody is free to make up their own version of it.
0:55:50 > 0:55:53So we're all free to make up own our minds! Hurrah!
0:55:53 > 0:55:56Wouldn't it be nice if somebody'd just tell you how to vote?
0:55:56 > 0:56:00We are in a situation, I think, where people have had
0:56:00 > 0:56:03all of the arguments set out, they have listened to them
0:56:03 > 0:56:06they have absorbed them or ignored them
0:56:06 > 0:56:09and I think on the 18th of September
0:56:09 > 0:56:12it will come down to a gut feeling - will I be better off
0:56:12 > 0:56:15and will my family be better off given one scenario or the other?
0:56:15 > 0:56:19And I think it will be as crude, ultimately, as that.
0:56:19 > 0:56:22I don't think we're at that stage yet. I still think that people are
0:56:22 > 0:56:26so hungry for information. It's not about trust, this is about facts,
0:56:26 > 0:56:29at the stage that we are sitting at at the moment. That may change.
0:56:29 > 0:56:32I think it's down to the message that the two sides are conveying,
0:56:32 > 0:56:35which side, which of those two competing offers
0:56:35 > 0:56:39you find the most trustworthy and the most, frankly, credible.
0:56:39 > 0:56:41And if and when the temperature rises
0:56:41 > 0:56:44and the political point-scoring turns nasty...
0:56:44 > 0:56:49For too long we have let the SNP claim ownership of patriotism.
0:56:49 > 0:56:53The Saltire is the flag of a proud nation,
0:56:53 > 0:56:57not the symbol of one political party.
0:56:57 > 0:57:01The Conservative party, mired in their negativity,
0:57:01 > 0:57:05will always say "No, you cannae." Well, yes, we can.
0:57:05 > 0:57:10Let's bear in mind that it could all be a lot worse.
0:57:10 > 0:57:13Whether one chooses to cast a Yes vote or a No vote,
0:57:13 > 0:57:16either way it's something of a leap of faith.
0:57:16 > 0:57:19And in a sense it might come down to trust.
0:57:19 > 0:57:24Who do you trust to represent your interests, Scotland's interests?
0:57:24 > 0:57:29It's really important to stress the distinctiveness of this process,
0:57:29 > 0:57:33the fact that the UK government have taken a pragmatic approach,
0:57:33 > 0:57:36they have allowed through the Edinburgh Agreement
0:57:36 > 0:57:39a transfer of power to make sure that a referendum
0:57:39 > 0:57:41could be held in Scotland that would be legal,
0:57:41 > 0:57:44and that internationally is very significant
0:57:44 > 0:57:48and is much commented on by visitors to Scotland,
0:57:48 > 0:57:50by international commentators.
0:57:50 > 0:57:54This is not a war, this is a democratic process.
0:57:54 > 0:57:58Still feeling a bit overwhelmed by all the political posturing,
0:57:58 > 0:58:01all the facts and claims and counter-claims?
0:58:01 > 0:58:05What I think the general public would like is a sense
0:58:05 > 0:58:09that it can take control of the debate itself a little bit more.
0:58:09 > 0:58:12It's confusing, isn't it? Hopefully you've learned a wee bit more
0:58:12 > 0:58:15about what will matter on Referendum Day.
0:58:15 > 0:58:18And now you can push the politicians for more and better answers
0:58:18 > 0:58:21in the seven months we have left before 18th September.
0:58:21 > 0:58:26I suspect to an extent that citizens will look beyond
0:58:26 > 0:58:28the heat and passion of the political debate
0:58:28 > 0:58:31and look to opportunities to discuss these issues
0:58:31 > 0:58:35among their peers, in their communities, and to an extent
0:58:35 > 0:58:38beyond the reach of formal politics,
0:58:38 > 0:58:40and I think that is a good thing.