0:00:04 > 0:00:06If you had to put some money on it,
0:00:06 > 0:00:09do you think Scottish independence is now coming?
0:00:09 > 0:00:12I think, certainly, one would say that probably somewhere around a 50%
0:00:12 > 0:00:15chance that Scotland is going to vote to leave the United Kingdom
0:00:15 > 0:00:17in the next two years.
0:00:17 > 0:00:19And that we may, in the end,
0:00:19 > 0:00:23discover that September 2014 was but simply the first instalment
0:00:23 > 0:00:25of a two-part drama, which,
0:00:25 > 0:00:28at the end of the day, resulted in the break-up of the United Kingdom.
0:00:28 > 0:00:31Over the past two years, Britain has been rocked
0:00:31 > 0:00:34and reshaped by referendums.
0:00:34 > 0:00:37We're living through a period of political turmoil
0:00:37 > 0:00:38unlike anything since
0:00:38 > 0:00:39the Second World War.
0:00:39 > 0:00:44This year's Brexit referendum was a revolt by millions of people,
0:00:44 > 0:00:47mainly in England, against the failures
0:00:47 > 0:00:50of international politics and economics.
0:00:50 > 0:00:54It was a rebellion against the elites which willingly gambled
0:00:54 > 0:00:58about the economic future and shook off warnings about Britain
0:00:58 > 0:01:02being too small and too poor to cope.
0:01:02 > 0:01:07And in all those ways, the Scottish independence referendum of 2014
0:01:07 > 0:01:11provided striking earlier parallels.
0:01:11 > 0:01:15This is an age when contempt for Parliamentary democracy
0:01:15 > 0:01:19has spilled over into a new kind of politics.
0:01:21 > 0:01:25The next big question is whether that European revolt,
0:01:25 > 0:01:27not shared in Scotland,
0:01:27 > 0:01:29will produce a second Scottish referendum
0:01:29 > 0:01:31and finally break the UK apart.
0:01:33 > 0:01:36In the second of these films, I'm going to look back at the Scottish
0:01:36 > 0:01:39referendum, the EU referendum,
0:01:39 > 0:01:43and the options currently facing Nicola Sturgeon and the SNP.
0:01:44 > 0:01:48I believe that Britain will be safer, stronger
0:01:48 > 0:01:50in a reformed European Union.
0:01:50 > 0:01:54Now, it may have finished in September 2014,
0:01:54 > 0:01:56but the independence referendum
0:01:56 > 0:01:58still casts a long shadow over Scotland.
0:02:03 > 0:02:06Two years on, and Scotland is still dealing
0:02:06 > 0:02:08with the after-shocks of that referendum.
0:02:08 > 0:02:11And, of course, since then there's been another referendum,
0:02:11 > 0:02:15and while England and Wales voted to leave the EU,
0:02:15 > 0:02:20every single local authority area in Scotland voted to remain.
0:02:20 > 0:02:24Now, before the Brexit vote, there was a lot of loose talk,
0:02:24 > 0:02:26and I think I was one of the loose talkers,
0:02:26 > 0:02:30to the effect that this would mean an almost inevitable second Scottish
0:02:30 > 0:02:34independence referendum and the break-up of the UK.
0:02:34 > 0:02:37But, now it's happened, things don't feel quite like that.
0:02:37 > 0:02:39In fact, Brexit has thrown up new dilemmas,
0:02:39 > 0:02:42new problems for Scottish nationalists to resolve.
0:02:42 > 0:02:46And they have to resolve them in an atmosphere which remains a bit raw,
0:02:46 > 0:02:49a bit tender to the touch.
0:03:05 > 0:03:08So, why did the Scottish referendum
0:03:08 > 0:03:09of 2014 on independence
0:03:09 > 0:03:12come to seem almost inevitable?
0:03:12 > 0:03:14It followed on directly
0:03:14 > 0:03:17from the huge success of the SNP in the 2011
0:03:17 > 0:03:20Scottish Parliamentary elections, when, for the first time,
0:03:20 > 0:03:24they won an overall majority and were able to turn to Number Ten
0:03:24 > 0:03:27and say, "Right, give us our referendum."
0:03:27 > 0:03:30And, perhaps to many people's surprise, David Cameron said,
0:03:30 > 0:03:32"All right, then, I will."
0:03:32 > 0:03:37It must have seemed a relatively safe and easy bet to him back then.
0:03:37 > 0:03:40Because nobody thought the Scots would actually vote, would they,
0:03:40 > 0:03:43for full independence quite so quickly?
0:03:43 > 0:03:45What neither David Cameron nor most observers
0:03:45 > 0:03:49could have predicted was the extraordinary outpouring
0:03:49 > 0:03:52of democratic energy, for good and ill,
0:03:52 > 0:03:54that overwhelmed Scotland in the extraordinary,
0:03:54 > 0:03:56heady weeks of the referendum campaign.
0:03:56 > 0:03:59Something that we have never seen before in Scotland, or frankly,
0:03:59 > 0:04:01anywhere else in the United Kingdom.
0:04:01 > 0:04:05- THEY CHANT:- Scotland says yes! Scotland says yes!
0:04:05 > 0:04:10Yes - the campaign for independence - hit the ground running,
0:04:10 > 0:04:14with star-studded events, glossy manifestos and the First Minister,
0:04:14 > 0:04:16Alex Salmond, leading the cry.
0:04:18 > 0:04:20I believe on the 18th of September, 2014
0:04:20 > 0:04:24the people of Scotland will vote yes to create a better country
0:04:24 > 0:04:25than we have now.
0:04:26 > 0:04:29'I always believed it was winnable.'
0:04:29 > 0:04:31What we were putting forward was something which many,
0:04:31 > 0:04:34many Scots found attractive.
0:04:34 > 0:04:37They were inherently attracted to that idea of a different,
0:04:37 > 0:04:38new style of Scotland.
0:04:38 > 0:04:40A different Scotland in terms of its
0:04:40 > 0:04:42social policy, it's social complexion.
0:04:42 > 0:04:45The idea we could have a better society
0:04:45 > 0:04:47in Scotland through independence.
0:04:47 > 0:04:51The right honourable Alistair Darling, MP.
0:04:51 > 0:04:53The No camp were also confident,
0:04:53 > 0:04:56but right from the start they were much quieter,
0:04:56 > 0:04:59and initially still looking for a leader.
0:04:59 > 0:05:02Alistair, how did it come about that you were made, as it were,
0:05:02 > 0:05:05leader of the Remain campaign for the Scottish referendum?
0:05:05 > 0:05:10Well, quite simply, because none of the political parties outside
0:05:10 > 0:05:14the nationalists were showing any inclination to lead.
0:05:14 > 0:05:16If my own party had wanted to lead the campaign
0:05:16 > 0:05:19I'd have happily fallen in behind them.
0:05:19 > 0:05:21It's the old saying - if you want something doing, do it yourself.
0:05:21 > 0:05:22I felt strongly about it.
0:05:22 > 0:05:26I feel very strongly, as we all do, about our country.
0:05:26 > 0:05:28And, you know, I was damned if I was
0:05:28 > 0:05:31just going to see the argument go by default.
0:05:31 > 0:05:34You've got to remember, in 2012, there was a feeling that
0:05:34 > 0:05:37it was almost inevitable that we were going to break away.
0:05:37 > 0:05:41And I just thought all the arguments fly in the face of that.
0:05:46 > 0:05:50For the next two years, the vote gripped the whole of Scotland,
0:05:50 > 0:05:54young and old, urban and rural, rich and poor.
0:05:54 > 0:05:57The Yes campaign became far bigger
0:05:57 > 0:06:00than simply people who were supporters of the SNP.
0:06:02 > 0:06:07Darren McGarvey grew up in a Glasgow housing scheme and is now a rapper,
0:06:07 > 0:06:09writer, and something of an activist.
0:06:10 > 0:06:15I believed in independence, because the community that I come from,
0:06:15 > 0:06:20it's generational poverty, alcohol abuse, drug addiction.
0:06:20 > 0:06:23Complete apathy towards the system.
0:06:23 > 0:06:25Violence everywhere.
0:06:25 > 0:06:30I attributed a lot of that to the decisions of the British state.
0:06:30 > 0:06:32A detached, pragmatic political class
0:06:32 > 0:06:38that shirks difficult decisions about radically changing society.
0:06:40 > 0:06:43Scotland's poorer working class communities,
0:06:43 > 0:06:46the people that conventional politics had forgotten,
0:06:46 > 0:06:50would have a big influence on the referendum's voting patterns.
0:06:53 > 0:06:55As the campaign went on, and the polls tightened,
0:06:55 > 0:06:59both sides launched a hunt to drive down, find,
0:06:59 > 0:07:02and register the so-called missing million.
0:07:02 > 0:07:04All those Scottish voters who hadn't
0:07:04 > 0:07:06voted at the time of the last election.
0:07:06 > 0:07:09Where did they go? They went to places like here, Easterhouse,
0:07:09 > 0:07:11on the outskirts of Glasgow,
0:07:11 > 0:07:14and housing estates beyond, some of the worst,
0:07:14 > 0:07:17and poorest housing anywhere in Europe.
0:07:17 > 0:07:18And what did those voters think?
0:07:18 > 0:07:20Well, most of them voted Yes.
0:07:20 > 0:07:22They were utterly disillusioned,
0:07:22 > 0:07:25and felt no loyalty to the old political establishment.
0:07:25 > 0:07:27To use a good Scottish word,
0:07:27 > 0:07:30they were simply scunnered with Westminster.
0:07:30 > 0:07:32Cameron government, you are done!
0:07:32 > 0:07:33Independence, here we come!
0:07:33 > 0:07:36Cameron government, you are done! Independence, here we come!
0:07:36 > 0:07:40I think a lot of the reasons why we've seen record levels
0:07:40 > 0:07:44of participation from deprived communities was because the Yes
0:07:44 > 0:07:48movement was genuinely something fresh and something new.
0:07:48 > 0:07:52And there was that sense that we were operating outside of the,
0:07:52 > 0:07:55kind of, the official narrative of what was going on
0:07:55 > 0:07:57and that there was something rebellious happening.
0:07:57 > 0:08:01Out on the streets there was a tremendous amount of democratic
0:08:01 > 0:08:05energy coursing through both sides.
0:08:05 > 0:08:08But the debates and the messages were also played out
0:08:08 > 0:08:11and impassioned through social media.
0:08:14 > 0:08:17The point about the referendum campaign, if I held a meeting,
0:08:17 > 0:08:20and, you know, virtually, I could go to any hall during the campaign
0:08:20 > 0:08:23and have hundreds of people turning up.
0:08:23 > 0:08:26But that wasn't like 400 people,
0:08:26 > 0:08:30that was 400 people times the 70% of them who were on social media
0:08:30 > 0:08:33who were broadcasting it out to their hundreds of contacts.
0:08:33 > 0:08:36And all of a sudden you weren't speaking to 400 people,
0:08:36 > 0:08:38you were speaking not to 4,000, but to 40,000 people.
0:08:38 > 0:08:42And the essence of what is popular and vibrant in social media
0:08:42 > 0:08:45is what's real. So you can't just do it without the meeting.
0:08:45 > 0:08:48The meeting has to be there to provide the interest, the colour,
0:08:48 > 0:08:50the thing that they want to talk about...
0:08:50 > 0:08:53- It creates the carnival atmosphere. - It creates its own momentum,
0:08:53 > 0:08:55as you rightly say, a carnival atmosphere.
0:08:55 > 0:09:00So, it was a campaign of deliberate spontaneity.
0:09:00 > 0:09:05The nationalists do say that this was a great liberation. Actually,
0:09:05 > 0:09:07if you're on the other side, it was not.
0:09:07 > 0:09:09It was divisive, it was unpleasant.
0:09:09 > 0:09:13You know, families, friendships have been disrupted.
0:09:13 > 0:09:16And, you know, basically, what they're saying is,
0:09:16 > 0:09:18you know, they did well.
0:09:18 > 0:09:21But it's a very one-dimensional thing, because, you know,
0:09:21 > 0:09:23they haven't accepted the result.
0:09:23 > 0:09:27They would like to carry on until the whole of Scotland
0:09:27 > 0:09:29accepts what they want.
0:09:30 > 0:09:32'The bitterness affected people on the pro-Union,
0:09:32 > 0:09:34'Better Together, campaign.
0:09:34 > 0:09:39'Some No voters were accused of being somehow less patriotic,
0:09:39 > 0:09:41'of not being proper Scots.'
0:09:43 > 0:09:46I'm going down to Melrose, in the Scottish Borders,
0:09:46 > 0:09:50to talk to a man nobody could accuse of not being a proper Scot.
0:09:50 > 0:09:52Alistair Moffat has been a television executive,
0:09:52 > 0:09:54he's helped run a university,
0:09:54 > 0:09:57he is a very, very highly-respected historian.
0:09:57 > 0:10:00He runs book festivals, a close personal friend of Gordon Brown,
0:10:00 > 0:10:02and a Labour man.
0:10:02 > 0:10:04But I'm really going down to see him because Alistair
0:10:04 > 0:10:06is, above anything else, a Borderer.
0:10:06 > 0:10:08The Borders are special.
0:10:08 > 0:10:11In the Borders, only a third of people voted for independence.
0:10:11 > 0:10:13Two thirds voted against.
0:10:13 > 0:10:15So I'm going down to hear what it's like
0:10:15 > 0:10:17being on the other side of the Scottish argument.
0:10:24 > 0:10:27'The beautiful little town of Melrose has deep links
0:10:27 > 0:10:29'to Scottish history.
0:10:30 > 0:10:34'After Robert the Bruce, Scotland's medieval independence hero, died,
0:10:34 > 0:10:38'his heart was buried at the 12th-century abbey.'
0:10:42 > 0:10:45Alistair, could we start by talking about this area, the Borders,
0:10:45 > 0:10:48and how distinctive that is in Scottish politics?
0:10:48 > 0:10:50Well, geography makes the Borders distinctive.
0:10:50 > 0:10:53We've got sheltering hills to the south in the shape of the Cheviots
0:10:53 > 0:10:54and the Lammermuirs to the north.
0:10:54 > 0:10:56And it's a great river basin, the Tweed basin.
0:10:56 > 0:11:00And so, geographically distinctive, culturally distinctive,
0:11:00 > 0:11:02and also politically distinctive.
0:11:02 > 0:11:05I suppose the latest demonstration of that was in the independence
0:11:05 > 0:11:09referendum, where the Borders voted emphatically No here.
0:11:09 > 0:11:11And the reason for that, Andrew, I think,
0:11:11 > 0:11:13was that we are right on the border.
0:11:13 > 0:11:15We're right... We know who the English are.
0:11:15 > 0:11:16They're our neighbours.
0:11:16 > 0:11:19And so there's a sense of our brothers and sisters
0:11:19 > 0:11:21across this artificial line.
0:11:21 > 0:11:25And the idea of us, somehow, separating from England,
0:11:25 > 0:11:26people just couldn't make sense of it.
0:11:26 > 0:11:30Why would we do that? You must form alliances, unions,
0:11:30 > 0:11:34bigger blocks to take on the problems of globalisation.
0:11:34 > 0:11:36If you're smaller, you're more prey, not less.
0:11:38 > 0:11:42But it does now look like the EU referendum has changed many minds
0:11:42 > 0:11:46on the left in Scotland, perhaps even in the Borders.
0:11:47 > 0:11:50The Scots have always been at their best when they are outward looking.
0:11:50 > 0:11:53Think of the Enlightenment, think of the great scientists,
0:11:53 > 0:11:57the great artists and, so, to withdraw from the European Union,
0:11:57 > 0:12:00I think, would go against the historical
0:12:00 > 0:12:02and cultural grain of many Scots.
0:12:02 > 0:12:04You sound almost as if,
0:12:04 > 0:12:07as a No campaigner, you might vote Yes in those circumstances?
0:12:07 > 0:12:10I wouldn't vote Yes, but I can understand people who do.
0:12:12 > 0:12:15And there are many parallels between the two referendums,
0:12:15 > 0:12:17the Scottish one and the EU one.
0:12:17 > 0:12:23If Scotland walks away from the UK, it walks away from the UK pound.
0:12:24 > 0:12:26Scotland's kind of revolt was different.
0:12:26 > 0:12:30More populist, left wing and anti-London,
0:12:30 > 0:12:33rather than anti-immigration and anti-Brussels.
0:12:34 > 0:12:38It was, however, at least as passionate.
0:12:38 > 0:12:40But while Yes Scotland appealed to the heart,
0:12:40 > 0:12:45the Unionists went for the head, with a barrage of terrifying,
0:12:45 > 0:12:48po-faced warnings about the economy.
0:12:48 > 0:12:50Should Scotland become independent
0:12:50 > 0:12:52it would start off in life in a worse
0:12:52 > 0:12:54financial position than the UK.
0:12:54 > 0:12:57When the referendum campaign first got going,
0:12:57 > 0:13:00there was about 30% or so of Scottish voters who seemed
0:13:00 > 0:13:03uncommitted to one side or another. Up for grabs.
0:13:03 > 0:13:07And so, to target them, the pro-Union Better Together campaign
0:13:07 > 0:13:11relentlessly focused on Scotland's economic weaknesses.
0:13:11 > 0:13:15Scotland was just too poor, too small to go it alone,
0:13:15 > 0:13:18so Scottish people would lose their jobs when lots of big companies
0:13:18 > 0:13:21hoofed it back over the border to England.
0:13:22 > 0:13:25Scottish pensioners would be worse off, because an independent Scotland
0:13:25 > 0:13:28wouldn't be able to pay them a proper pension.
0:13:28 > 0:13:30And, perhaps most worrying of all,
0:13:30 > 0:13:32it wasn't even clear what kind of currency
0:13:32 > 0:13:36an independent Scotland would have. The euro - no, thanks.
0:13:36 > 0:13:37The pound - no fear.
0:13:37 > 0:13:41Today in 2016, this might sound quite familiar,
0:13:41 > 0:13:45but this is the first time we met the phrase "Project Fear",
0:13:45 > 0:13:47in the Scottish referendum.
0:13:47 > 0:13:50When it comes to voting, getting governments you didn't vote for,
0:13:50 > 0:13:52I didn't vote for him, but I'm stuck with him!
0:13:52 > 0:13:55I just accept that's what happens in a democracy.
0:13:55 > 0:13:59We can use the ruble, we can use the yen, we can use the dollar,...
0:13:59 > 0:14:01But we're going to use sterling, Alistair.
0:14:01 > 0:14:02But you don't have a central bank.
0:14:02 > 0:14:04Now, it's still not clear whether, in the end,
0:14:04 > 0:14:07Project Fear actually worked, whether it tipped enough
0:14:07 > 0:14:10Scottish voters, right at the last moment,
0:14:10 > 0:14:12into sticking with the Union,
0:14:12 > 0:14:15but it caused an enormous backlash in Scotland.
0:14:15 > 0:14:17Huge resentment and anger,
0:14:17 > 0:14:21and Project Fear is remembered, without a great deal of affection,
0:14:21 > 0:14:24in Scotland to this day.
0:14:24 > 0:14:29As the campaigns went on, the warnings got darker.
0:14:29 > 0:14:34A vote for Yes is a huge risk, a huge risk to jobs,
0:14:34 > 0:14:37to the currency and our national health service.
0:14:37 > 0:14:39And it went on and on,
0:14:39 > 0:14:43even though many within the No camp didn't think it was working.
0:14:43 > 0:14:45It was absolutely appalling,
0:14:45 > 0:14:47and I was regularly telling George Osborne
0:14:47 > 0:14:49to stop running a negative campaign,
0:14:49 > 0:14:50to stop telling the Scots
0:14:50 > 0:14:53that they were too wee and too poor to run their own affairs,
0:14:53 > 0:14:55that they couldn't have the pound.
0:14:55 > 0:14:56It simply wasn't credible.
0:14:56 > 0:14:59And we started off in that campaign with only 28% supporting
0:14:59 > 0:15:04independence, and we ended up with 45%.
0:15:04 > 0:15:07And, surprise, surprise, the thing that has astonished me,
0:15:07 > 0:15:10is that instead of learning from that lesson, they used the same
0:15:10 > 0:15:13playbook in the Brexit referendum
0:15:13 > 0:15:17with similarly catastrophic results, from their point of view.
0:15:17 > 0:15:19Many people thought, "We're not going to be bullied.
0:15:19 > 0:15:20"We're not going to be
0:15:20 > 0:15:22"frightened into this."
0:15:22 > 0:15:25So, for many people, that sort of weighing in of the establishment
0:15:25 > 0:15:27stiffened the resolve.
0:15:27 > 0:15:31But, equally for some people, understandably, it made them pause,
0:15:31 > 0:15:32and think "Hmmm."
0:15:32 > 0:15:36Was there a No campaign that you'd have been worried about,
0:15:36 > 0:15:38or frightened of that didn't happen?
0:15:38 > 0:15:41Yeah. The No campaign that talked about the great things about being
0:15:41 > 0:15:43British, the positive No campaign.
0:15:43 > 0:15:46I mean, I could have made a better fist of it than those who ran
0:15:46 > 0:15:48the No campaign made.
0:15:48 > 0:15:50And that is the campaign that
0:15:50 > 0:15:53I think we would have been much more troubled by.
0:15:53 > 0:15:56But they never, ever, ever got their act together to do it.
0:15:59 > 0:16:02Some of the economic questions in Project Fear
0:16:02 > 0:16:04would come back to haunt the SNP.
0:16:04 > 0:16:08But support for independence grew and grew.
0:16:09 > 0:16:11And then, two weeks before polling day,
0:16:11 > 0:16:15an opinion poll suddenly put Yes Scotland in the lead.
0:16:15 > 0:16:17- NEWSREADER:- Supporters of Scottish independence
0:16:17 > 0:16:20say they are optimistic that the referendum will produce a majority
0:16:20 > 0:16:23in favour of leaving the United Kingdom.
0:16:23 > 0:16:25- NEWSREADER:- Their leaders say they're encouraged
0:16:25 > 0:16:28by the first mainstream opinion poll to put them narrowly ahead.
0:16:28 > 0:16:31- NEWSREADER:- A YouGov poll for the Sunday Times suggests
0:16:31 > 0:16:34that a narrow majority of Scottish voters
0:16:34 > 0:16:36is now in favour of leaving the UK.
0:16:38 > 0:16:41I can vividly remember on the day,
0:16:41 > 0:16:45how much that poll utterly shocked Westminster politicians.
0:16:45 > 0:16:50You could virtually feel the British state rocking on its foundations.
0:16:53 > 0:16:57I was on the golf course. I was in the Castle Stuart golf course,
0:16:57 > 0:16:59because I was trying to have the occasional game of golf
0:16:59 > 0:17:00to stay sane.
0:17:00 > 0:17:02And I said, "Oh, dear."
0:17:02 > 0:17:04Because I knew, immediately,
0:17:04 > 0:17:09that the Saturday I wanted to be ahead was the Saturday
0:17:09 > 0:17:12before poll, not the ten, 11 days.
0:17:12 > 0:17:14That gave time for the reaction to kick in.
0:17:14 > 0:17:17Yeah. As we were expecting, and as I knew there would be.
0:17:17 > 0:17:21But, you know, there we were, gradually advancing, you know,
0:17:21 > 0:17:26from the 28% where we started towards 50%,
0:17:26 > 0:17:31knowing that we had to get there just at the right moment.
0:17:31 > 0:17:34And to get there at the right moment was the moment
0:17:34 > 0:17:37where it was too late for our opponents in their complacency
0:17:37 > 0:17:39in their self-satisfaction, to react.
0:17:41 > 0:17:46But shortly after that YouGov poll, another political beast
0:17:46 > 0:17:48emerged from his lair in Fife.
0:17:50 > 0:17:52Gordon Brown, still a big figure in Scotland,
0:17:52 > 0:17:54wanted to make the case for the Union
0:17:54 > 0:17:59with both passion and vigour while still remaining a proper Scot.
0:18:00 > 0:18:05We are proposing that over the next few months we agree a programme
0:18:05 > 0:18:09that the Scottish Parliament should have increased powers,
0:18:09 > 0:18:14in welfare, in social and economic policy,
0:18:14 > 0:18:16and in finance.
0:18:17 > 0:18:21We are also proposing that there is a timetable for delivery.
0:18:23 > 0:18:26So, immediately the referendum is over on September the 19th,
0:18:26 > 0:18:29we start the process of new laws
0:18:29 > 0:18:33to enhance the powers of the parliament.
0:18:33 > 0:18:36These are big changes that we are proposing.
0:18:36 > 0:18:40To strengthen the Scottish Parliament, but at the same time,
0:18:40 > 0:18:42to stay as part of the United Kingdom.
0:18:42 > 0:18:44Thank you very much.
0:18:44 > 0:18:47Brown wanted to tell people that voting No
0:18:47 > 0:18:51to independence didn't simply mean voting for the status quo.
0:18:52 > 0:18:56Shortly afterwards, the editor of Scotland's Daily Record
0:18:56 > 0:18:58contacted Brown asking him to get the party leaders
0:18:58 > 0:19:01in Westminster to sign a declaration on their
0:19:01 > 0:19:04front page, the so-called Vow,
0:19:04 > 0:19:07delivering new powers to the Scottish Parliament.
0:19:07 > 0:19:09- NEWSREADER:- In the heat of the campaign battle, Labour,
0:19:09 > 0:19:11the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats
0:19:11 > 0:19:13vowed that Scotland would receive more powers.
0:19:15 > 0:19:20I think people still feel let down that the promises that were made
0:19:20 > 0:19:22weren't delivered.
0:19:22 > 0:19:25And it's part of the reason why we continue to see support for
0:19:25 > 0:19:29independence, very strong, and in every poll we've seen
0:19:29 > 0:19:32higher than was the case on polling day itself.
0:19:39 > 0:19:42- NEWSREADER:- It's seven o'clock on Thursday the 18th of September,
0:19:42 > 0:19:43the headlines this morning.
0:19:43 > 0:19:46Polling stations are opening across Scotland.
0:19:47 > 0:19:52The date of the Scottish referendum is now marked indelibly on many
0:19:52 > 0:19:53Scottish minds.
0:19:57 > 0:20:01- NEWSREADER:- A record turnout is expected as 97% of the electorate
0:20:01 > 0:20:03has registered to vote.
0:20:04 > 0:20:06- NEWSREADER:- We'll be here through the night to bring you
0:20:06 > 0:20:09the announcement from each of the 32 counts across Scotland,
0:20:09 > 0:20:14and the final tally that will decide if it is Yes or No to independence.
0:20:16 > 0:20:18As soon as the first results started coming in,
0:20:18 > 0:20:21it was clear what the final vote would be.
0:20:22 > 0:20:25I was campaigning in Glasgow, and we did win in Glasgow,
0:20:25 > 0:20:29so I was high as a kite, convinced we were going to win.
0:20:31 > 0:20:34The point at which I realised it was unlikely
0:20:34 > 0:20:35we were going to win overall
0:20:35 > 0:20:37was the one that came in from Clackmannanshire.
0:20:37 > 0:20:40Ladies and gentlemen, could I have your attention please...
0:20:40 > 0:20:43You know, that, probably, was a realisation that hit me about one
0:20:43 > 0:20:45o'clock, two o'clock in the morning.
0:20:46 > 0:20:49- No, 19,000... - CHEERING
0:20:49 > 0:20:52Clackmannan, the wee county, is a barometer,
0:20:52 > 0:20:55certainly of the battle between Labour and the SNP.
0:20:55 > 0:21:00So Clackmannan was the first result in, and when that went against,
0:21:00 > 0:21:05then it was very difficult to see how differential voting
0:21:05 > 0:21:07in the cities could take us forward,
0:21:07 > 0:21:12so I knew pretty early on that we were up against it.
0:21:12 > 0:21:14By the early hours, it was all over.
0:21:14 > 0:21:16A 55% victory for Better Together
0:21:16 > 0:21:20and agonising for nationalists who had promised
0:21:20 > 0:21:24this would be a once-in-a-generation choice.
0:21:24 > 0:21:27- NEWSREADER:- The people of Scotland have said No to independence.
0:21:27 > 0:21:31- NEWSREADER:- Scotland has decided to stay within the Union.
0:21:32 > 0:21:35Politics and Scotland will never be the same again.
0:21:35 > 0:21:39My colleagues and I will play our part in bringing our country together
0:21:39 > 0:21:43to demonstrate that, after this vote, we can remain united.
0:21:47 > 0:21:51Scotland has, by majority, decided not, at this stage,
0:21:51 > 0:21:54to become an independent country.
0:21:54 > 0:21:59I accept that verdict of the people, and I call on all of Scotland
0:21:59 > 0:22:02to follow suit in accepting the democratic verdict
0:22:02 > 0:22:04of the people of Scotland.
0:22:08 > 0:22:12With Scotland voting no, it seemed the Union had been saved,
0:22:12 > 0:22:14and very soon David Cameron came to speak
0:22:14 > 0:22:16at the lectern outside Number Ten.
0:22:18 > 0:22:21I was on the phone to him just before he came sauntering out.
0:22:22 > 0:22:23He told me he was going out to make a statement,
0:22:23 > 0:22:25nothing at all about what he was going to do.
0:22:25 > 0:22:30Good morning. The people of Scotland have spoken.
0:22:30 > 0:22:32And it is a clear result.
0:22:32 > 0:22:36They have kept our country of four nations together.
0:22:36 > 0:22:39And, like millions of other people, I am delighted.
0:22:40 > 0:22:42David Cameron was the victor,
0:22:42 > 0:22:46but he was already thinking about the pressures within his own party,
0:22:46 > 0:22:47and from Ukip.
0:22:47 > 0:22:51With the Scottish Parliament now due to receive more powers,
0:22:51 > 0:22:56he wanted to wrench the spotlight back to England, and English MPs.
0:22:56 > 0:22:59But I have long believed that a crucial part missing
0:22:59 > 0:23:02from this national discussion is England.
0:23:02 > 0:23:06I was in a room with Alex and we sat there watching
0:23:06 > 0:23:08David Cameron make his statement
0:23:08 > 0:23:11outside Downing Street, completely dumbfounded.
0:23:11 > 0:23:13We've heard the voice of Scotland,
0:23:13 > 0:23:18and now the millions of voices of England must also be heard.
0:23:18 > 0:23:20Well, that's Scotland back in its box,
0:23:20 > 0:23:22now let's talk about English votes for English laws!
0:23:22 > 0:23:25And what that said to people in Scotland was, you know,
0:23:25 > 0:23:28"See all these promises I made you during the referendum campaign?
0:23:28 > 0:23:32- "Forget about them."- The question of English votes for English laws,
0:23:32 > 0:23:35"the so-called West Lothian question,
0:23:35 > 0:23:37"requires a decisive answer."
0:23:37 > 0:23:40I told David Cameron that it was a huge mistake
0:23:40 > 0:23:43to announce new constitutional reform which, frankly,
0:23:43 > 0:23:45had been thought up on the hoof.
0:23:45 > 0:23:47Thank you very much. And good morning.
0:23:50 > 0:23:54It obviously was a huge political mistake by David Cameron,
0:23:54 > 0:23:57but an enormous political opportunity for the SNP.
0:24:00 > 0:24:03Now, you might have thought that after losing the referendum, the Yes
0:24:03 > 0:24:08campaign would be slightly deflated and the SNP would lose support.
0:24:08 > 0:24:11Exactly the opposite happened.
0:24:11 > 0:24:16Whether out of remorse or defiance, or mere cussedness,
0:24:16 > 0:24:18people flocked to the SNP.
0:24:18 > 0:24:22A week after that result, the SNP had doubled its membership,
0:24:22 > 0:24:26and today, even though Scotland has only five million people,
0:24:26 > 0:24:31the SNP is the third largest political party in the UK.
0:24:31 > 0:24:35And in the following British general election,
0:24:35 > 0:24:40the 45% who'd voted yes gave a massive surge to the SNP.
0:24:40 > 0:24:42Well, let's have a look at what the SNP are doing.
0:24:42 > 0:24:45The damage they're doing to Labour. Look at that.
0:24:45 > 0:24:49It is right up, it's almost breaking our swing-o-meter. 27%.
0:24:49 > 0:24:54The nationalists won all but three of the Westminster seats
0:24:54 > 0:24:57in Scotland. Scottish politics was moving apart
0:24:57 > 0:24:58from the rest of Britain.
0:25:00 > 0:25:02What, of course, the referendum did
0:25:02 > 0:25:05was to turn the question of whether or not Scotland
0:25:05 > 0:25:07should become independent,
0:25:07 > 0:25:09into the central defining issue
0:25:09 > 0:25:11of Scottish electoral politics.
0:25:11 > 0:25:15Now, 45% isn't enough to win a referendum,
0:25:15 > 0:25:20but 45% is certainly enough to win a parliamentary election. Crucially,
0:25:20 > 0:25:27around 85% to 90% of those people who voted Yes in September 2014
0:25:27 > 0:25:31were now, basically, determined to carry on voting for the SNP
0:25:31 > 0:25:34in future elections, even if previously they'd voted
0:25:34 > 0:25:36for Labour or for somebody else.
0:25:36 > 0:25:39So, Scotland now voted differently.
0:25:39 > 0:25:44And a year later, the Brexit vote simply underlined that difference.
0:25:45 > 0:25:48Shall we now just have a look at the story of what happened
0:25:48 > 0:25:50in this referendum?
0:25:50 > 0:25:53Yes, David, let's go back to the maps.
0:25:53 > 0:25:56And you can see here on the floor, the map of the UK,
0:25:56 > 0:25:58as the colours came in during the night.
0:25:58 > 0:26:01So, blue for Leave and yellow for Remain.
0:26:01 > 0:26:02And in the end it wasn't enough.
0:26:02 > 0:26:07Scotland, Northern Ireland and London voting for Remain.
0:26:07 > 0:26:09A negotiation with the European Union
0:26:09 > 0:26:13will need to begin under a new Prime Minister.
0:26:13 > 0:26:18Now the decision has been made to leave, we need to find the best way.
0:26:19 > 0:26:21It was a truly historic turning point.
0:26:21 > 0:26:24At Westminster, our Prime Minister resigned,
0:26:24 > 0:26:28leaving the UK in an awkward period of transition.
0:26:28 > 0:26:32While up in Scotland, Nicola Sturgeon seized the moment
0:26:32 > 0:26:35and almost immediately started pushing -
0:26:35 > 0:26:37forget once in a generation -
0:26:37 > 0:26:40for a second Scottish independence referendum.
0:26:40 > 0:26:45The Scottish Parliament should have the right to hold another referendum
0:26:45 > 0:26:47if there is a significant and material change
0:26:47 > 0:26:50in the circumstances that prevailed in 2014,
0:26:50 > 0:26:54such as Scotland being taken out of the EU against our will.
0:26:54 > 0:26:57'I think it certainly strengthens
0:26:57 > 0:26:59'the democratic case for independence.'
0:26:59 > 0:27:01That's what I said the morning after the referendum,
0:27:01 > 0:27:04nothing has happened to make me change my mind.
0:27:04 > 0:27:08'You know, if we cast our minds back to the 2014 referendum.
0:27:08 > 0:27:11'One of the central arguments of the No campaign was the fact'
0:27:11 > 0:27:13that independence, according to them,
0:27:13 > 0:27:17would put our membership of the European Union in peril.
0:27:17 > 0:27:19They said that was a key reason to vote No.
0:27:19 > 0:27:21Fast forward less than two years,
0:27:21 > 0:27:23and we find ourselves on the brink
0:27:23 > 0:27:25of being taken out of the European Union,
0:27:25 > 0:27:28notwithstanding the fact that a majority who voted,
0:27:28 > 0:27:31and 32 out of 32 local authorities, voted to stay in.
0:27:31 > 0:27:36So, clearly, that opens up a gaping democratic deficit.
0:27:36 > 0:27:40So what does this Scottish difference mean?
0:27:40 > 0:27:44There seems to be less fear of immigration in Scotland,
0:27:44 > 0:27:47and perhaps Scotland, because of her history,
0:27:47 > 0:27:50has always felt more comfortably European.
0:27:52 > 0:27:56But if the politics of a second Scottish referendum
0:27:56 > 0:27:59excite nationalists, the economic implications were,
0:27:59 > 0:28:02and are, much tougher for them.
0:28:06 > 0:28:09Once upon a time, Scotland's economic outlook
0:28:09 > 0:28:10was very rosy indeed.
0:28:10 > 0:28:14Ships were built here in their thousands, steel was forged,
0:28:14 > 0:28:18coal was mined, new technologies invented.
0:28:18 > 0:28:22The old industries may now have faded, but then, after the 1970s,
0:28:22 > 0:28:25the really big money came from North Sea oil.
0:28:29 > 0:28:32This is the Cromarty Firth on the north-east coast.
0:28:32 > 0:28:37A deepwater, sheltered estuary long used by the Royal Navy,
0:28:37 > 0:28:41shipping and, now, the oil and gas industries.
0:28:43 > 0:28:48For a handful of decades, oil was the great change maker in British
0:28:48 > 0:28:53politics. The volume and the price of Brent crude seemed to matter more
0:28:53 > 0:28:57than any pronouncements by prime ministers or anything in a Queen's Speech.
0:28:57 > 0:29:00If you look back at history,
0:29:00 > 0:29:04every great power system has left its monuments, its relics.
0:29:04 > 0:29:07The Egyptian pharaohs left the Pyramids,
0:29:07 > 0:29:11the English monarchy left its great castles scattered across Wales and
0:29:11 > 0:29:17Scotland. And in a very similar way, moored in the Cromarty Firth,
0:29:17 > 0:29:20huge and hulking and massively impressive,
0:29:20 > 0:29:26but no longer wanted - big oil has left behind her floating citadels.
0:29:31 > 0:29:34My guide on this trip around the dosing leviathans
0:29:34 > 0:29:37of the Cromarty Firth is the chief executive
0:29:37 > 0:29:39of its Port Authority, Bob Buskie.
0:29:42 > 0:29:46Bob, you call this a cold stacked rig, what is a cold stacked rig?
0:29:46 > 0:29:49A cold stacked rig is a rig that's come off contract
0:29:49 > 0:29:52as a consequence of the low oil price.
0:29:52 > 0:29:54So it's come in here to take shelter.
0:29:54 > 0:29:56The Port Authority will look after it when it's here,
0:29:56 > 0:29:58but it's basically demobilised.
0:29:58 > 0:30:00It's de-manned. There's nothing happening.
0:30:00 > 0:30:02There's nobody on it, it's just a rusting hunk of steel?
0:30:02 > 0:30:06Can you judge the state of the oil market by the number of these things
0:30:06 > 0:30:08that are towed into the Cromarty Firth?
0:30:08 > 0:30:10Yeah, you certainly can, Andrew.
0:30:10 > 0:30:12When the price gets depressed,
0:30:12 > 0:30:14the way it's been over the last 18 months,
0:30:14 > 0:30:17what you see is a pull-back in development in the North Sea,
0:30:17 > 0:30:21a pull-back in exploration drilling, a pull-back in appraisal drilling.
0:30:21 > 0:30:24So, generally, what will happen is these rigs
0:30:24 > 0:30:26will come off contract and they would be stored here
0:30:26 > 0:30:28in the Firth until the market recovers.
0:30:29 > 0:30:32To the south-east of the Cromarty Firth,
0:30:32 > 0:30:34is the centre of the Scottish oil industry -
0:30:34 > 0:30:36the Granite City of Aberdeen.
0:30:42 > 0:30:47Back in the day, Aberdeen was a kind of sober, douce city
0:30:47 > 0:30:50of intellect and academia, a bit of fishing,
0:30:50 > 0:30:53but above all - respectable and quiet.
0:30:54 > 0:30:57But ever since the discovery of oil in the 1970s,
0:30:57 > 0:30:59Aberdeen has been transformed.
0:30:59 > 0:31:02It's become Scotland's boom town.
0:31:02 > 0:31:06And the symbol of the huge change in the Scottish economy,
0:31:06 > 0:31:10and then the Scottish economic argument that oil brought.
0:31:10 > 0:31:13Jim Simpson was a whisky salesman before the boom broke.
0:31:13 > 0:31:15He drives an imported Lincoln Continental,
0:31:15 > 0:31:17which doesn't even raise an eyebrow
0:31:17 > 0:31:20in a city which has had to get used to quick money.
0:31:22 > 0:31:24But all this has changed.
0:31:24 > 0:31:28The North Sea oil industry has collapsed.
0:31:28 > 0:31:31Businesses are closing, properties in the city centre lie vacant,
0:31:31 > 0:31:34and unemployment in the oil industry has soared.
0:31:35 > 0:31:40I think there's a realisation now that the golden goose is no more.
0:31:40 > 0:31:42We had 450,000 jobs,
0:31:42 > 0:31:44now, that's across the UK,
0:31:44 > 0:31:45more than half the jobs
0:31:45 > 0:31:47are actually outside Scotland.
0:31:49 > 0:31:53So, very large employer, we think it's now down to about 380,000.
0:31:53 > 0:31:54That's a big, big reduction.
0:31:54 > 0:32:02The global oil price was, relatively recently, as high as 110 a barrel.
0:32:02 > 0:32:05After the referendum, it fell to a low of 30,
0:32:05 > 0:32:08and since then it's only risen a bit.
0:32:08 > 0:32:12Today, it's 48 a barrel, but it has been slowly climbing.
0:32:12 > 0:32:14I think it will vary up and down a bit.
0:32:14 > 0:32:18I think 2016 will be a bad year, it will be a very tough year.
0:32:18 > 0:32:20There'll be a lot more jobs lost,
0:32:20 > 0:32:23because we are still going through a very difficult phase.
0:32:25 > 0:32:29Before the collapse in oil prices, its revenue helped balance the gap
0:32:29 > 0:32:32between Scottish tax income and public spending.
0:32:34 > 0:32:37Oil and gas revenues have always been much more important to Scotland
0:32:37 > 0:32:39than to the UK as a whole.
0:32:39 > 0:32:42The issue for Scotland is that those revenues have gone down
0:32:42 > 0:32:45from over ten billion a year, just four or five years ago,
0:32:45 > 0:32:47to essentially nothing.
0:32:47 > 0:32:51This inevitably means that, for Scotland to go independent,
0:32:51 > 0:32:54it's in an even less strong fiscal position
0:32:54 > 0:32:58than it would have expected to have been two or three years ago.
0:32:58 > 0:33:02In August 2016, the GERS figures,
0:33:02 > 0:33:06that's Government Expenditure and Revenue Scotland to you and me,
0:33:06 > 0:33:10were published, revealing that the collapse in oil tax revenues
0:33:10 > 0:33:15had pushed Scotland's deficit to nearly £15 billion.
0:33:15 > 0:33:17You know, I get very frustrated,
0:33:17 > 0:33:21and I'm sure there's a lot of people who feel the same, who, you know,
0:33:21 > 0:33:24hear people who describe the status quo in economic terms
0:33:24 > 0:33:28for Scotland as somehow an argument against independence.
0:33:28 > 0:33:30I've never argued, and I never will argue
0:33:30 > 0:33:33that independence is some kind of panacea.
0:33:33 > 0:33:35But I believe the best way to deal with these challenges,
0:33:35 > 0:33:39to face up to these challenges and, fundamentally, to make sure that we
0:33:39 > 0:33:44realise the vast potential of our economy, is to be in charge of the
0:33:44 > 0:33:47decisions that shape it. And that is the very essence of my lifelong
0:33:47 > 0:33:49support for independence.
0:33:52 > 0:33:57But to prepare for independence, you do need an economic plan.
0:33:58 > 0:33:59If you rely simply
0:33:59 > 0:34:01on the revenues of Scotland,
0:34:01 > 0:34:05you are most likely to have less money to spend.
0:34:05 > 0:34:08Therefore, the first rule of independence has to be
0:34:08 > 0:34:11that you accept an economic shock...
0:34:11 > 0:34:13of some dimension.
0:34:13 > 0:34:15It may not be that bad,
0:34:15 > 0:34:20but until someone takes the trouble to investigate it seriously,
0:34:20 > 0:34:24and we discuss that, the case is dead.
0:34:27 > 0:34:29So, to put it brutally,
0:34:29 > 0:34:33can Scotland survive economically without North Sea oil?
0:34:35 > 0:34:38Well, there are other things happening in the Cromarty Firth,
0:34:38 > 0:34:41ships delivering blades for Scotland's new wind farms.
0:34:43 > 0:34:47And when I was there, there was even a gigantic cruise ship dropping
0:34:47 > 0:34:51off tourists to visit the landscape, play golf and buy whisky.
0:34:53 > 0:34:56The cruise ship market is absolutely booming around the world,
0:34:56 > 0:35:00and ships like this coming into Invergordon contribute at least
0:35:00 > 0:35:04£10 million a year to the Scottish economy.
0:35:04 > 0:35:05But here's the thing.
0:35:05 > 0:35:08This ship was built in Venice.
0:35:08 > 0:35:14Now Venice has been making beautiful ships since the 1300s, and still is.
0:35:14 > 0:35:18In the 19th century, Scotland was responsible, through the Clyde,
0:35:18 > 0:35:21for more than half the ships on the world's seas.
0:35:21 > 0:35:25But these days, Scotland has lost that great,
0:35:25 > 0:35:29hard-edged engineering exporting tradition.
0:35:29 > 0:35:31So I think the question for the future is -
0:35:31 > 0:35:36can Scotland re-gain that place as a sharp-elbowed, hard-working,
0:35:36 > 0:35:40inventive, highly educated, aggressive country,
0:35:40 > 0:35:43going out to grab export markets, that we always were in the past?
0:35:43 > 0:35:46Or is it becoming, frankly, a little bit flabby?
0:35:48 > 0:35:49Scots do need to remember
0:35:49 > 0:35:53just how good we used to be at so many industries.
0:35:56 > 0:36:01And if Scotland became independent, we need to build a new economy,
0:36:01 > 0:36:04not dependent upon oil.
0:36:04 > 0:36:07That's not an option, it is utterly essential.
0:36:11 > 0:36:14So how do we escape from an unbalanced economic position
0:36:14 > 0:36:18over reliant on particular sectors and commodities
0:36:18 > 0:36:20and produce again, a more diverse,
0:36:20 > 0:36:22stable, structured economy,
0:36:22 > 0:36:24which will be safer and better for our children
0:36:24 > 0:36:27and do that, from, what is, let's be frank,
0:36:27 > 0:36:28a position of relative weakness?
0:36:33 > 0:36:39One place where the Scottish economy is being reinvented is here, Dundee.
0:36:40 > 0:36:44The city is virtually unrecognisable from the dark, black,
0:36:44 > 0:36:48industrial seaport I remember when I was growing up.
0:36:49 > 0:36:52Dundee is still filled with old factories and warehouses,
0:36:52 > 0:36:55but many of them are now home to a relatively new
0:36:55 > 0:36:59and extremely lucrative industry - video games.
0:36:59 > 0:37:03Chris van der Kuyl, one of the city's leading entrepreneurs,
0:37:03 > 0:37:07is developing an old cattle shed on the waterfront.
0:37:07 > 0:37:10What's behind me in the next 12 months is going to transform
0:37:10 > 0:37:12into one of the most exciting digital media
0:37:12 > 0:37:14and commercial spaces in the city.
0:37:15 > 0:37:19The dramatic change in the use of home video games, digital media,
0:37:19 > 0:37:20new technology businesses,
0:37:20 > 0:37:23I think, is a very apt metaphor for what's going on in Dundee
0:37:23 > 0:37:24at the moment.
0:37:24 > 0:37:27Video games make a titanic amount of money,
0:37:27 > 0:37:30it's the kind of industry that might help support
0:37:30 > 0:37:33a newly independent Scotland.
0:37:33 > 0:37:36The video game market is absolutely massive.
0:37:36 > 0:37:38The last numbers I've seen were fast approaching
0:37:38 > 0:37:41100 billion of value globally.
0:37:41 > 0:37:43And it is utterly remarkable.
0:37:43 > 0:37:45I was once quoted as saying I thought the games industry
0:37:45 > 0:37:48could make, you know, the oil, the North Sea oil industry
0:37:48 > 0:37:51look like a drop in the ocean. Actually, that was before
0:37:51 > 0:37:53the oil price hit where it is today.
0:37:53 > 0:37:55So I probably feel that even more strongly.
0:37:56 > 0:37:59Van der Kuyl's company is a developer
0:37:59 > 0:38:01for the hugely successful Minecraft,
0:38:01 > 0:38:06a game in which you construct imaginary worlds out of tiny blocks.
0:38:08 > 0:38:124J Studios is best known for being the developer of Minecraft
0:38:12 > 0:38:14on games consoles.
0:38:14 > 0:38:16We released a game four years ago,
0:38:16 > 0:38:21and it's gone on to be the bestselling game on the Xbox, ever.
0:38:21 > 0:38:24And it's starting to obliterate all kinds of records.
0:38:25 > 0:38:29They've even built a Minecraft version of Dundee.
0:38:31 > 0:38:33So you can see, we've used Minecraft to try and give everybody an
0:38:33 > 0:38:36impression of what Dundee's going to be like.
0:38:36 > 0:38:39We'll start to walk along into the waterfront now.
0:38:39 > 0:38:42And see the spectacular new V&A museum.
0:38:43 > 0:38:44It's going to be pretty cool.
0:38:50 > 0:38:54There are many other new industries that might help Scotland to survive
0:38:54 > 0:38:56the initial shock of independence.
0:38:58 > 0:39:01'In Glasgow, they may have closed many of the old shipyards
0:39:01 > 0:39:03'on the Clyde, but inside the huge warehouses
0:39:03 > 0:39:06'they are using cutting-edge technology to
0:39:06 > 0:39:08'build Royal Naval warships.'
0:39:14 > 0:39:19Wind farms may seem to disfigure classically beautiful,
0:39:19 > 0:39:25rural Scotland, but they bring jobs, they help replace the oil industry,
0:39:25 > 0:39:30and though Scotland lacks many things, wind isn't one of them.
0:39:35 > 0:39:39The prospect of Scottish independence is complicated
0:39:39 > 0:39:41even further by the Brexit vote.
0:39:41 > 0:39:45I used to think for the UK to vote to leave the EU,
0:39:45 > 0:39:47while Scotland took a different path,
0:39:47 > 0:39:51'made a second independence referendum almost inevitable.
0:39:51 > 0:39:54'Right now, that feels a bit less certain.'
0:39:55 > 0:39:59The implications of Brexit, economically, socially, culturally,
0:39:59 > 0:40:02I think are potentially severe.
0:40:02 > 0:40:05So I've said, and continue to say,
0:40:05 > 0:40:10that my priority in this context is to seek to protect Scotland's
0:40:10 > 0:40:13interests, independence is one possible way
0:40:13 > 0:40:15in which I think we could protect Scotland's interests,
0:40:15 > 0:40:19but at this stage I'm exploring all options to do that.
0:40:23 > 0:40:27So what are the options facing Nicola Sturgeon?
0:40:27 > 0:40:30In an ideal world, Brussels would treat Scotland
0:40:30 > 0:40:31as an independent country.
0:40:31 > 0:40:34Scotland hasn't voted to leave the EU,
0:40:34 > 0:40:38therefore Scotland can stay when the rest of the UK leaves.
0:40:38 > 0:40:41Now, this is very attractive to a lot of Scottish nationalists.
0:40:41 > 0:40:44It's quite reassuring, perhaps, to Scottish voters.
0:40:44 > 0:40:45But there is a basic problem.
0:40:45 > 0:40:47As you may have noticed, at the moment,
0:40:47 > 0:40:50Scotland is not an independent country.
0:40:50 > 0:40:53The EU would have to break some of its own basic rules
0:40:53 > 0:40:55to make that happen.
0:40:55 > 0:40:58But these rules have been broken before.
0:40:58 > 0:41:01Given we're in unprecedented circumstances,
0:41:01 > 0:41:05no country has ever tried to leave the European Union before.
0:41:05 > 0:41:09We know from other scenarios, within the European Union,
0:41:09 > 0:41:11that there has been a flexible approach
0:41:11 > 0:41:13taken by Europe in the past.
0:41:13 > 0:41:18We can seek to explore whether there are differential outcomes,
0:41:18 > 0:41:21or solutions for Scotland within a UK context.
0:41:21 > 0:41:24And, of course, we can, as a country, decide to consider whether
0:41:24 > 0:41:28independence allows us best to protect those interests.
0:41:29 > 0:41:31'Second possibility is that Scotland votes'
0:41:31 > 0:41:33to leave the UK
0:41:33 > 0:41:36and, as an independent country, joins the queue
0:41:36 > 0:41:38to try and join the EU again.
0:41:38 > 0:41:41If we think this through, there are obvious problems.
0:41:42 > 0:41:46To be part of the EU, Scotland would almost certainly have to accept free
0:41:46 > 0:41:49movement of people, but with Scotland sharing
0:41:49 > 0:41:51a landmass with England,
0:41:51 > 0:41:54where they voted against mass migration,
0:41:54 > 0:41:58wouldn't this mean we'd see fences and customs posts going up
0:41:58 > 0:42:00along the border?
0:42:01 > 0:42:04Most people in Scotland are very intelligent and very thoughtful,
0:42:04 > 0:42:07and they ask themselves, "Well, what's the choice here?"
0:42:07 > 0:42:11Staying in a UK that you, maybe, don't much like,
0:42:11 > 0:42:14or going into a, you know, eurozone,
0:42:14 > 0:42:16because all new members have to go into the eurozone,
0:42:16 > 0:42:18with everything that entails.
0:42:18 > 0:42:21And, you know, if you had the free movement of people in Scotland
0:42:21 > 0:42:23and not in England, you have to have a border.
0:42:23 > 0:42:26You know, as sure as night follows day.
0:42:28 > 0:42:30ARCHIVE: 'I'm a political journalist,
0:42:30 > 0:42:34'travelling around the country for a book on whether, and if so, when,
0:42:34 > 0:42:36'Britain has died.'
0:42:37 > 0:42:39'The idea of a hard border does feel a little familiar,
0:42:39 > 0:42:42'because 16 years ago I made a series for the BBC
0:42:42 > 0:42:45'looking at globalisation,
0:42:45 > 0:42:47'the EU, and Scottish devolution.'
0:42:49 > 0:42:53VOICEOVER: 'Imagine for a moment that Britain has fallen apart.'
0:42:53 > 0:42:55Back then, to illustrate Scottish independence,
0:42:55 > 0:42:59we built a fake border post between Scotland and England
0:42:59 > 0:43:03and were savagely criticised for being ridiculously alarmist.
0:43:07 > 0:43:09Today, plenty of grown-up politicians
0:43:09 > 0:43:12are talking about it as a hard possibility,
0:43:12 > 0:43:15even if Nicola Sturgeon herself is very dismissive.
0:43:16 > 0:43:20And I've heard Theresa May and other UK politicians
0:43:20 > 0:43:24being very categoric that they're not prepared to see a hard border
0:43:24 > 0:43:29between Ireland...the Republic of Ireland and the North of Ireland.
0:43:29 > 0:43:32If these issues can be resolved in that context,
0:43:32 > 0:43:36then there is no reason for anybody to make the argument that, somehow,
0:43:36 > 0:43:39we are going to have hard borders between Scotland
0:43:39 > 0:43:40and the rest of the UK.
0:43:45 > 0:43:48Then there is, of course, the double out option.
0:43:48 > 0:43:52That is - Scotland leaves the EU with the rest of the UK,
0:43:52 > 0:43:54and then Scotland leaves the UK.
0:43:54 > 0:43:59Scotland going it alone, with her own currency and her own economy,
0:43:59 > 0:44:03in a wider world, as a small country, completely independent.
0:44:03 > 0:44:05I don't think it's likely, but we have to include it
0:44:05 > 0:44:06as a possible option.
0:44:06 > 0:44:10Well, there is no doubt there is an element of support for the SNP,
0:44:10 > 0:44:12and support for independence in Scotland
0:44:12 > 0:44:14that, frankly, doesn't want anything to do
0:44:14 > 0:44:15with either London or with Brussels.
0:44:15 > 0:44:18And it certainly looks on all the polling evidence
0:44:18 > 0:44:21that around a third or so of those people who would vote Yes
0:44:21 > 0:44:23to an independence referendum,
0:44:23 > 0:44:26who voted Yes back in September 2014,
0:44:26 > 0:44:28actually voted to leave the European Union.
0:44:28 > 0:44:31But I think the truth is, that prospect,
0:44:31 > 0:44:35the idea of an independent Scotland outside the UK
0:44:35 > 0:44:38and outside the European Union, well, frankly,
0:44:38 > 0:44:41it's not something that the vast majority of SNP parliamentarians
0:44:41 > 0:44:43are going to be willing to campaign for.
0:44:45 > 0:44:48But what we're sort of skirting around here
0:44:48 > 0:44:52is the small matter of a second Scottish independence referendum.
0:44:54 > 0:44:57If the SNP decides to go for it,
0:44:57 > 0:44:59they've got some tricky problems over timing.
0:45:03 > 0:45:07Nicola Sturgeon is still keeping all her options very open,
0:45:07 > 0:45:12but she said she'd want to call one before the UK Brexit.
0:45:13 > 0:45:16Look, I'm, at the moment, I've said what I've said.
0:45:16 > 0:45:19I think an independence referendum is likely here
0:45:19 > 0:45:20and I think the logic would be,
0:45:20 > 0:45:23if it is coming about because of Brexit,
0:45:23 > 0:45:26that it's in the period before the UK leaves.
0:45:26 > 0:45:27But we don't know when that is going to start,
0:45:27 > 0:45:29that two-year period is going to start.
0:45:29 > 0:45:32We don't yet know whether that two-year period
0:45:32 > 0:45:36will both see the UK leave the EU and negotiate its new relationship,
0:45:36 > 0:45:40or whether that two years will just be for Brexit.
0:45:40 > 0:45:42So there are so many unanswered questions
0:45:42 > 0:45:44for the UK as a whole right now.
0:45:45 > 0:45:50The SNP won't want to push the euro or a hard border on the Scots
0:45:50 > 0:45:54any time soon. But they can't wait for too long either.
0:45:54 > 0:45:59Politics runs in cycles, all parties eventually become too settled,
0:45:59 > 0:46:03too complacent, and before they know it, too unpopular.
0:46:03 > 0:46:06That happened to the Scottish Conservative and Unionists
0:46:06 > 0:46:0960 years ago, it happened to Labour,
0:46:09 > 0:46:12and it may well yet happen to the SNP as well.
0:46:12 > 0:46:14And in the Scottish Parliamentary
0:46:14 > 0:46:15elections of 2016,
0:46:15 > 0:46:16the Nationalists did
0:46:16 > 0:46:19lose their overall majority.
0:46:19 > 0:46:20This goes back
0:46:20 > 0:46:21to party politics,
0:46:21 > 0:46:24and we are still, after all,
0:46:24 > 0:46:26a profoundly party political system.
0:46:28 > 0:46:30A great joy in reporting politics
0:46:30 > 0:46:33is that you never quite know what's going
0:46:33 > 0:46:35to come round the corner next.
0:46:35 > 0:46:37In the early months of 2016,
0:46:37 > 0:46:40what came round the corner in Scotland was a young,
0:46:40 > 0:46:42determined, feisty woman.
0:46:42 > 0:46:47Ruth Davidson was gay and the leader of the Scottish Tories.
0:46:47 > 0:46:49And she took them to a remarkable recovery
0:46:49 > 0:46:52in the Scottish Parliamentary elections.
0:46:52 > 0:46:55We shouldn't overdo it, it wasn't an SNP-style landslide,
0:46:55 > 0:47:00the Tories still only got 22% of the popular vote,
0:47:00 > 0:47:02but they more than doubled their representation
0:47:02 > 0:47:08in Hollyrood to 31 MSPs and became the official opposition.
0:47:08 > 0:47:10Which only goes to show that a mature democracy
0:47:10 > 0:47:14contains its own balancing mechanism against swings
0:47:14 > 0:47:17that are too big or go on for too long.
0:47:17 > 0:47:20Call it the people's gyroscope.
0:47:20 > 0:47:22Whatever claims the SNP were pursuing with regard
0:47:22 > 0:47:25to constitutional brinkmanship over the next five years,
0:47:25 > 0:47:27have now been utterly shredded.
0:47:28 > 0:47:31The Scotland that I was born in, as I say, was conservative
0:47:31 > 0:47:32with a small C as well as a big C.
0:47:32 > 0:47:34Very, very grey, male,
0:47:34 > 0:47:35very Presbyterian.
0:47:35 > 0:47:39And now it's a country where most of the leaders are gay or female
0:47:39 > 0:47:40or both. It's a heck of a change,
0:47:40 > 0:47:42culturally.
0:47:42 > 0:47:43Yeah, I mean, I think Scotland has changed.
0:47:43 > 0:47:45I mean, I'm 37 years old.
0:47:45 > 0:47:48When I was born you could still be prosecuted for being in a loving gay
0:47:48 > 0:47:51relationship, because we were so far behind other parts of the UK
0:47:51 > 0:47:55in terms of legalising, as it was called then, homosexuality.
0:47:55 > 0:47:57We've come a really long time, even in my lifetime.
0:47:57 > 0:47:58Now, you had a great success.
0:47:58 > 0:48:00You have started to bring the
0:48:00 > 0:48:01Conservative Party back in Scotland.
0:48:01 > 0:48:04You did that by fighting that election and very much,
0:48:04 > 0:48:05"As the Unionist party,
0:48:05 > 0:48:07"we will be the opposition to the
0:48:07 > 0:48:09"SNP in the Scottish Parliament."
0:48:09 > 0:48:11In terms of how we fought this election,
0:48:11 > 0:48:13we absolutely put ourselves as a counterpoint to the SNP,
0:48:13 > 0:48:16because it's a party that's been in government for nine years,
0:48:16 > 0:48:19we see that there are a number of issues on which they are not making
0:48:19 > 0:48:22progress, or indeed, are going backwards.
0:48:22 > 0:48:26But they've been able to use the constitution as a way of diverting
0:48:26 > 0:48:28people's attention away from it.
0:48:28 > 0:48:31The argument that we ran is, "We will be a strong opposition.
0:48:31 > 0:48:33"We'll actually challenge them.
0:48:33 > 0:48:35"And we'll ask them to put forward better ideas."
0:48:35 > 0:48:39And just as striking as the re-emergence of the Scottish Tories
0:48:39 > 0:48:42is the catastrophic collapse of Scottish Labour.
0:48:44 > 0:48:49Kezia Dugdale has the hugely difficult and unenviable job
0:48:49 > 0:48:51of leading Scottish Labour now.
0:48:52 > 0:48:55It's a disaster for Labour tonight.
0:48:55 > 0:48:57Yes, it's a very bad night for the Labour Party.
0:48:57 > 0:48:59There's no question about that.
0:48:59 > 0:49:03I think you heard some of what I had to say when I was elected there
0:49:03 > 0:49:05about what I think's happened overnight.
0:49:05 > 0:49:07I'll have a much better sense of analysis for you over the weekend,
0:49:07 > 0:49:09once I've had some sleep.
0:49:10 > 0:49:13What's happened to the party that once reigned supreme,
0:49:13 > 0:49:17but has now fallen to third place in Scotland?
0:49:17 > 0:49:20I think the Labour Party lost contact with their roots.
0:49:20 > 0:49:24They resented the fact that they were not winning elections,
0:49:24 > 0:49:27and that they ended up with a Tory government in Labour Scotland.
0:49:27 > 0:49:30And so they thought that they would create a Scottish Parliament,
0:49:30 > 0:49:32which they thought would put them in power forever.
0:49:32 > 0:49:34They said the Tories didn't have a mandate,
0:49:34 > 0:49:36that is not a Unionist position.
0:49:36 > 0:49:38That is a nationalist position.
0:49:38 > 0:49:41And the Tories were presented as anti-Scottish.
0:49:41 > 0:49:43But, of course, when Labour came into power
0:49:43 > 0:49:47they found themselves having to take a dose of their own medicine,
0:49:47 > 0:49:49and they were destroyed by the nationalist tiger
0:49:49 > 0:49:51which they created.
0:49:52 > 0:49:55Brian Wilson was a Labour MP for nearly 20 years,
0:49:55 > 0:49:58and a minister in Tony Blair's government.
0:49:59 > 0:50:02The long-term achievement of nationalism
0:50:02 > 0:50:06is to make everything about the constitution.
0:50:06 > 0:50:10As long as the political dynamic is around the constitution,
0:50:10 > 0:50:13then it's very hard to see
0:50:13 > 0:50:15where the Labour Party fits into that.
0:50:15 > 0:50:19I mean, the Labour Party has to have a confident message, which is of
0:50:19 > 0:50:24progressive politics, social and economic change, redistributionism,
0:50:24 > 0:50:27strong leadership, confident in that argument,
0:50:27 > 0:50:29but saying the best way to do that is within the framework
0:50:29 > 0:50:31of the United Kingdom.
0:50:31 > 0:50:34And when you think about it, if you spend three-and-a-half years
0:50:34 > 0:50:37saying to people that the answer to all our problems is independence,
0:50:37 > 0:50:39you're not going to give up on that.
0:50:39 > 0:50:42You're not going to say the day afterwards, "Oh, well, you know,
0:50:42 > 0:50:43"we'll try something else."
0:50:43 > 0:50:46I just wish that we could channel some of that energy into dealing
0:50:46 > 0:50:49with some of the problems that Scotland has got.
0:50:49 > 0:50:50We still, you know,
0:50:50 > 0:50:54children of low-income backgrounds don't get to university in Scotland.
0:50:54 > 0:50:57What sort of indictment is that on us in a second decade
0:50:57 > 0:50:58of the 21st century?
0:50:58 > 0:51:01Constitutional questions are sometimes easier to debate
0:51:01 > 0:51:04than actually doing things that might make a difference to people.
0:51:06 > 0:51:09If the SNP continues to win landslides across Scotland,
0:51:09 > 0:51:14it will have a huge impact on politics across the UK.
0:51:14 > 0:51:16The British Labour Party's always relied on Scottish votes
0:51:16 > 0:51:19to win general elections.
0:51:19 > 0:51:24But with the SNP winning in Scotland and Ukip surging in many
0:51:24 > 0:51:27parts of England, this could see Labour collapse at Westminster,
0:51:27 > 0:51:30and the end of British politics as we know it.
0:51:31 > 0:51:34The truth is, I think, that the idea of British politics
0:51:34 > 0:51:37has been in decline for some time,
0:51:37 > 0:51:39and, frankly, doesn't exist any longer.
0:51:39 > 0:51:42By which one means, is there common political space
0:51:42 > 0:51:45and a common political argument,
0:51:45 > 0:51:49and an electorate that reacts in similar ways across the whole of the
0:51:49 > 0:51:54island of Great Britain? The truth is, that's decreasingly the case.
0:51:54 > 0:51:58You know, we've got different parties in government in different
0:51:58 > 0:52:00parts of the United Kingdom and, you know,
0:52:00 > 0:52:04I think this idea that there is no longer a sort of homogenous British
0:52:04 > 0:52:07politics is certainly one that I would hold to.
0:52:07 > 0:52:09Whether there ever has been, I think, is open to debate,
0:52:09 > 0:52:13but I think it's absolutely, unquestionably the case now
0:52:13 > 0:52:14that it no longer exists.
0:52:15 > 0:52:18So far, the most obvious party political winner
0:52:18 > 0:52:21in this new world has been the SNP.
0:52:21 > 0:52:24They've been in government for nearly ten years.
0:52:24 > 0:52:27But they still have to shake off accusations
0:52:27 > 0:52:31of being simply a party of protest and insurgency,
0:52:31 > 0:52:35what you might call insurgency with Scottish characteristics.
0:52:37 > 0:52:40They're almost opposite in their political views from Ukip, or
0:52:40 > 0:52:42indeed, Donald Trump.
0:52:42 > 0:52:46But some of the SNP's success does draw on the same deep
0:52:46 > 0:52:48political dissatisfaction.
0:52:50 > 0:52:54I find it deeply offensive when anybody tries to put the SNP
0:52:54 > 0:52:58or the rise in support over a long, long period of time of the SNP
0:52:58 > 0:53:01into the same category as Donald Trump or Ukip.
0:53:03 > 0:53:05Is the SNP an insurgent party?
0:53:05 > 0:53:12The SNP is a party that's 80 odd years old, we have, over a long,
0:53:12 > 0:53:16long period of time, decades, long before I was born,
0:53:16 > 0:53:21let alone in the SNP, we have built up a credibility and a trust
0:53:21 > 0:53:24of the people of Scotland.
0:53:24 > 0:53:28And I think people vote for the SNP, because they see the SNP as a party
0:53:28 > 0:53:31that stands firmly on the side of the Scottish interest.
0:53:33 > 0:53:35Away from the spotlight of the independence issue,
0:53:35 > 0:53:39the SNP also faces accusations of being too glossy
0:53:39 > 0:53:44an electoral machine, simply too establishment.
0:53:44 > 0:53:49The SNP's rise in Scotland was quite similar to the Obama campaign.
0:53:49 > 0:53:53Where you have intelligent politicians, skilful politicians,
0:53:53 > 0:53:57and they talk in platitudes of hope and all of this vague stuff.
0:53:57 > 0:53:58Ultimately, once power is achieved,
0:53:58 > 0:54:02the politicians renege on a lot of the pledges that they made.
0:54:02 > 0:54:05They adjust their rhetoric to appeal to a whole new audience.
0:54:05 > 0:54:08This idea that we have to pander to people
0:54:08 > 0:54:10who already have plenty of money,
0:54:10 > 0:54:13whose kids are all going to university for free.
0:54:13 > 0:54:15This idea, we need to pander to that.
0:54:15 > 0:54:17And that's new politics?
0:54:17 > 0:54:21That's not new. That's New Labour with the dial turned up!
0:54:21 > 0:54:24They make New Labour look like a paddle steamer.
0:54:26 > 0:54:30But the SNP is still firmly in the driving seat,
0:54:30 > 0:54:33now home rule is being talked about in London,
0:54:33 > 0:54:35and some kind of new deal.
0:54:35 > 0:54:38They have already changed the terms of debate.
0:54:40 > 0:54:45It could be that independence for Scotland simply never happens.
0:54:45 > 0:54:47There is no further referendum,
0:54:47 > 0:54:50there is no great constitutional crisis,
0:54:50 > 0:54:51things just carry on.
0:54:51 > 0:54:53But in that circumstance, don't forget,
0:54:53 > 0:54:55the Scottish political culture -
0:54:55 > 0:54:59different politicians, different parties, different issues,
0:54:59 > 0:55:02different scandals, different headlines, different media,
0:55:02 > 0:55:05different broadcast - remains very,
0:55:05 > 0:55:07very different from the politics of London.
0:55:07 > 0:55:10That doesn't seem to me to be particularly stable.
0:55:10 > 0:55:12Eventually, things will fall apart.
0:55:12 > 0:55:16This is the so-called independence by stealth option.
0:55:16 > 0:55:20It's very bad for journalists, because it's slow and gentle,
0:55:20 > 0:55:22but it may be the likeliest option of all.
0:55:26 > 0:55:29Believe this, something is going to change.
0:55:29 > 0:55:34Full independence, home rule inside Britain, independence by stealth,
0:55:34 > 0:55:36who knows?
0:55:36 > 0:55:39In my lifetime, Scotland has undergone
0:55:39 > 0:55:41an extraordinary transformation.
0:55:42 > 0:55:47The Nationalists have experienced a drenching baptism from outsiders
0:55:47 > 0:55:51and insurgents to the new Scottish status quo.
0:55:52 > 0:55:56But the radical dissatisfaction that brought them there isn't limited,
0:55:56 > 0:56:00in case you hadn't noticed, to Scotland.
0:56:00 > 0:56:04We are now looking at a world in which, first of all,
0:56:04 > 0:56:08living standards have not been advancing to any great degree
0:56:08 > 0:56:10ever since the financial crash.
0:56:10 > 0:56:13Two, where the expansion of middle-class occupations
0:56:13 > 0:56:15has narrowed, reduced much more,
0:56:15 > 0:56:18so therefore the idea that I may be in a working-class job,
0:56:18 > 0:56:21but my kids can go to university and they can get a good job,
0:56:21 > 0:56:23that is under challenge.
0:56:23 > 0:56:26Now, against that backdrop a lot of people basically feel
0:56:26 > 0:56:29that this world of international globalised capital
0:56:29 > 0:56:31is one that is out of control, and certainly one where they
0:56:31 > 0:56:33themselves don't feel they have sufficient control
0:56:33 > 0:56:36over their own lives and their own circumstances.
0:56:38 > 0:56:43All across the West, people are revolting against the insecurity,
0:56:43 > 0:56:48the unfairness and the sheer speed of change that modern capitalism
0:56:48 > 0:56:52brings. All those anonymous, technological and financial
0:56:52 > 0:56:56forces that seem so far above us, out of reach.
0:56:56 > 0:56:59Everywhere this revolt takes different forms.
0:56:59 > 0:57:01In America - Trump.
0:57:01 > 0:57:03Across Europe - those new parties
0:57:03 > 0:57:06of the radical right and the radical left.
0:57:06 > 0:57:09In England - Brexit, but also Corbynism.
0:57:09 > 0:57:12In Scotland - radical nationalism.
0:57:12 > 0:57:14But here's the problem.
0:57:14 > 0:57:17As we tear down the old social democratic parties,
0:57:17 > 0:57:19the government and the leaders,
0:57:19 > 0:57:23are we also destroying the only shields we might have
0:57:23 > 0:57:28against those very same international forces?
0:57:28 > 0:57:30This magnificent, powerful building,
0:57:30 > 0:57:35the Civic Chambers of a Glasgow that was once the second city of
0:57:35 > 0:57:39the Empire is an expression, in riotous marble,
0:57:39 > 0:57:43of the raw economic and political power this city once had.
0:57:43 > 0:57:47Will a new Scotland, will a different Britain,
0:57:47 > 0:57:50have anything like the same ability to act in the world
0:57:50 > 0:57:52that the old ones enjoyed?
0:57:59 > 0:58:02If you want to find out more about historical
0:58:02 > 0:58:03and contemporary Scotland,
0:58:03 > 0:58:06just go to the website below and follow the links
0:58:06 > 0:58:08to the Open University.