:00:23. > :00:28.Here Air Southwest, we're on the frontline for weather. I try to
:00:28. > :00:31.predict what is coming. Of of the Science and Technology has got
:00:31. > :00:38.better, no one could have predicted the extremes of weather we have all
:00:38. > :00:45.been experiencing this year. In this film, will be looking back at
:00:45. > :00:54.one of the weird is yours for weather we've ever experienced. --
:00:54. > :01:01.and we're just two years. At times, we have had drought warnings and
:01:01. > :01:09.flood warnings issued on the same day. Now if there is heavy rain, I
:01:09. > :01:15.get very nervous. It has been a terrible year. My father has been
:01:15. > :01:19.here for 60 years. It is the worst year that he can remember. From
:01:19. > :01:29.drought to flood, we have had it all. It really has been a year of
:01:29. > :01:43.
:01:43. > :01:47.wild weather. It started off with a second try winter. Then, just as
:01:47. > :01:51.low hosepipe bans were announced across the country and the drought
:01:51. > :01:57.declared in the South West, the heavens opened. And it just kept on
:01:57. > :02:07.ringing. It was the wettest April to July for 100 years. Across the
:02:07. > :02:11.
:02:11. > :02:16.region, many of us face the risk of severe flooding. Do some people
:02:16. > :02:20.argue that if this had been done earlier, then this would not have
:02:21. > :02:25.happened. The flash flood of October made
:02:25. > :02:35.headlines are round-the-world, thanks largely to this mobile phone
:02:35. > :02:36.
:02:36. > :02:43.fitted. -- footage. At lunchtime, there was a river coming down the
:02:43. > :02:53.street. There was a torrent of water. Tons and tons of it. Never
:02:53. > :02:53.
:02:53. > :03:03.seen anything like it. Remarkably, the flood only seriously damaged
:03:03. > :03:06.
:03:06. > :03:11.five properties. Today, Steve air is meeting a representative from
:03:11. > :03:21.each Environment Agency. He specialises in minimising the
:03:21. > :03:22.
:03:22. > :03:29.impact of flash flooding. By the time we got a peer, the rock had
:03:29. > :03:33.already gone. This is where the river comes through now. My theory
:03:33. > :03:43.is that deposits in the water made it more and more shall until it
:03:43. > :03:43.
:03:43. > :03:47.went straight down the hill. We did not have a flood plan. Older
:03:47. > :03:53.generations used to hand maintain the river. Over time, that
:03:53. > :03:56.tradition has been lost. That is the kind of thing we need get
:03:56. > :04:04.backing to communities. There are the people we know how to stop this
:04:04. > :04:14.from happening. If there was a flood warning, people could come
:04:14. > :04:19.
:04:19. > :04:29.and and block the dreams. -- remove anything that is blocking the dream.
:04:29. > :04:34.
:04:34. > :04:41.-- drain. I feel like we have had a shock, but where we're prepared for
:04:41. > :04:49.it to happen again. In July, an alert was issued several hours
:04:49. > :04:56.before this river burst its banks. But there was little residents and
:04:56. > :05:06.business owners could do. 35 homes were devastated. A surge of up to
:05:06. > :05:16.seven feet swept through the valley. Local businesses suffered two. --
:05:16. > :05:20.
:05:20. > :05:28.too. Come into my workshop. This is where the water got to. Above the
:05:28. > :05:35.electricity supply. Above waist height. It inundated everything
:05:35. > :05:45.that was Electrical. We suffered flooding over all of our machines.
:05:45. > :05:46.
:05:46. > :05:56.It was over the top of this machine here. I live nearby and I ran down
:05:56. > :05:56.
:05:56. > :06:04.first time. There was water everywhere. I have never seen
:06:04. > :06:13.anything like it. The workshop is running again now. But it took two
:06:13. > :06:18.months. It was not covered by insurance. They are worried it will
:06:18. > :06:25.happen again for. We have had no theories or indications again. I
:06:25. > :06:30.bid like to know if it will happen again. If this man should be able
:06:30. > :06:40.to answer the question. The flood defence expert of the Environment
:06:40. > :06:41.
:06:41. > :06:45.Agency. We have some graphs here. These are at River Dee ages. We can
:06:45. > :06:51.see the event of 7th July. The curve is the river level. You can
:06:51. > :06:55.see how quickly the river level was responding to rainfall. The river
:06:55. > :07:05.levels were the highest that have been recorded at ease gauges. That
:07:05. > :07:06.
:07:06. > :07:12.tells you it was a severe event. -- these gauges. It could happen again.
:07:12. > :07:20.If you live in a flood plain area, flooding can happen. We can build
:07:20. > :07:27.defences, but that is only to a certain level. This year, for the
:07:27. > :07:33.first time, this �2 million scheme it failed to protect homes from
:07:33. > :07:43.flooding. They were flooded twice. This manner campaigned for the
:07:43. > :07:43.
:07:43. > :07:53.damned to be built. Mother Nature can destroy anything. What is the
:07:53. > :07:57.function of the date? This is the normal throttle for the river. It
:07:57. > :08:05.is to prevent normal flooding. One cities over the top of that, there
:08:05. > :08:15.is nothing you can do. It reached the peak of the dam and went over
:08:15. > :08:15.
:08:15. > :08:20.the top. It took an hour-and-a-half to get from there to there. Once it
:08:20. > :08:29.starts string that, there is nothing you can do. You must have
:08:29. > :08:34.been devastated. I didn't have time to think about it at the time. But
:08:34. > :08:39.afterwards, looking at the wreckage was awful. Down in the village, the
:08:39. > :08:43.consequences of the dam overflowing were devastating. One of the worst
:08:43. > :08:53.affected properties belonged to this woman. She showed me what
:08:53. > :08:54.
:08:54. > :08:58.happened. The river is very close to my house. On the day of the
:08:58. > :09:04.flight, it was horrendous. I thought I was saved because of the
:09:04. > :09:09.dam. I stood there thinking, it can't come through the door as. I
:09:09. > :09:18.started putting sheets and towels and whatever I could there. But it
:09:18. > :09:24.didn't make any difference. I was really frightened. It was so fierce.
:09:24. > :09:29.Six months on and the house is still a building site. Water came
:09:29. > :09:35.in the front and in the back. Everything on the ground floor was
:09:35. > :09:41.ruined. My kitchen has been replaced. What faith you have now
:09:41. > :09:45.in the dam? Not a lot. I tell you, I used to love being in the
:09:45. > :09:51.conservatory and I used to love the sound of rain on the top of the
:09:51. > :10:00.roof. Now if there is heavy rain, I get very nervous. I think, not
:10:00. > :10:05.again. Last month, the dam came perilously close to over topping up
:10:05. > :10:10.again. But the Environment Agency says it has done all it can. This
:10:10. > :10:13.scheme is a very good small schemes. We just have to recognise that it
:10:13. > :10:18.only provides protection up to a certain level. We have to reinforce
:10:18. > :10:24.the message to everyone that we cannot build ourselves out of flood
:10:25. > :10:33.risk. We have to, as well as drink those schemes, learning to live
:10:33. > :10:39.with and adapt to that increasing level of risk. -- as well as doing
:10:39. > :10:43.those schemes. It is clear from the Environment Agency that no matter
:10:43. > :10:47.how much work we do, we simply can't afford to build flood
:10:47. > :10:53.defences everywhere there needed. It means for some of us flooding is
:10:54. > :11:03.a fact of life. But what are the global causes of this extreme
:11:04. > :11:05.
:11:05. > :11:15.weather? Meteorological list -- meteorological expert Rick Miller
:11:15. > :11:18.
:11:18. > :11:26.investigates. I am in Sussex. The level is very
:11:26. > :11:31.low. It seemed that the only thing which could save us would be a very
:11:31. > :11:35.long period of prolonged rain. But you should be careful what you wish
:11:35. > :11:42.for. The worst drought since 1976 was followed by the wettest April
:11:42. > :11:47.to June on record. I will find out what the scientists say are the
:11:47. > :11:54.reasons for this. I have equipped myself with a huge globe to put
:11:54. > :12:04.things into perspective. I will see the people who were badly hit, to
:12:04. > :12:06.
:12:06. > :12:16.explain to them why it happened. First stop, North Tyneside, hit by
:12:16. > :12:17.
:12:17. > :12:27.a flash flood in June. It was so real. It was so weird seeing people
:12:27. > :12:29.
:12:29. > :12:36.in bolt on your street. -- in boats. I have come to the same street to
:12:36. > :12:44.explain what happened. You have to look at things in a global view. We
:12:44. > :12:47.have to talk about this. This is the jet stream. The jet stream is a
:12:47. > :12:56.ribbon of fast-moving area six miles up in the atmosphere that
:12:56. > :13:04.carries weather systems. It divides cold air above us and warm air to
:13:04. > :13:11.the south. It heads towards the UK because of the direction -- because
:13:11. > :13:21.of the flowing of the Earth. The problem was with the way the jet
:13:21. > :13:27.
:13:27. > :13:35.stream behave. -- behaved. I am off to Bucklesham bay. One night in
:13:35. > :13:40.June, they had a month's worth of rain. The Sussex beach holiday
:13:40. > :13:43.village on the coast took the brunt. Let's speak to the workers of the
:13:43. > :13:48.holiday park about the fact that there is a pattern to the way the
:13:48. > :13:54.jet stream normally behaves across the year. In winter, the jet stream
:13:54. > :13:59.is normally here, running across the Atlantic towards the UK. We
:13:59. > :14:04.would expect some rain in the winter. This time, things were
:14:04. > :14:09.different. But this time things were different. In a 2012, the jet
:14:09. > :14:17.stream was much further south than we would expect. That meant that
:14:17. > :14:21.all the storms that usually hit the UK were going to Spain and Portugal.
:14:21. > :14:26.That is why there was so much fear about drought and what would happen
:14:26. > :14:34.if we had a third dry winter. Then, when summer came around, the jet
:14:34. > :14:37.Now, in the summer, we'd normally expect the jet stream to be north
:14:38. > :14:40.of the UK. And that means we're in that warm weather. We get spells of
:14:40. > :14:47.lovely warm sunshine. That's the plan, anyway. We know that didn't
:14:47. > :14:50.happen this year. Rather than the jet stream being further north over
:14:50. > :14:53.Iceland, the storms that normally miss us were too far south and
:14:53. > :14:56.basically hit the UK bringing really heavy rainfall and the
:14:56. > :14:59.flooding that we saw. So the jet stream was in the wrong place for
:14:59. > :15:03.us all year? Absolutely, and that's why all year long our weather
:15:03. > :15:09.hasn't fitted the normal pattern we expect. Basically the jet stream
:15:09. > :15:12.was in the wrong place and it got stuck. But do the scientists have
:15:12. > :15:17.any theories about why it got stuck? That's a question being
:15:17. > :15:20.asked by one particular man in Devon. After a night of intense
:15:20. > :15:27.rain in the village of Yealmpton near Plymouth, Alan Frame found
:15:27. > :15:34.himself trapped in his house. leaning out the bedroom window
:15:34. > :15:39.waving to the emergency services just trying to get help. And what
:15:39. > :15:44.the villagers want to know is this... So why was the jet stream
:15:44. > :15:47.in the wrong position? Very good question. Twist it with me a little
:15:47. > :15:51.bit. So I want to go over towards North America, that's it. There we
:15:51. > :15:54.go. And I want to take you to the sea here, where we know the
:15:54. > :15:58.temperature of the sea here is higher than normal and it has been
:15:58. > :16:01.for quite a while. The theory is that because the sea is warmer than
:16:01. > :16:07.normal, the jet stream doesn't get that push north and actually will
:16:07. > :16:10.end up further south and take those weather systems across the UK.
:16:11. > :16:14.if you influence the origin of the jet stream, it's a bit like waving
:16:15. > :16:19.a long stick. You can have a big effect at the end of the jet stream
:16:19. > :16:26.moving it away or onto the UK. the interesting thing is, we've
:16:26. > :16:31.seen this before in the 1950s. Where does all the bad weather come
:16:31. > :16:34.from? The north Atlantic sea temperature went up in a similar
:16:34. > :16:39.way, and at the same time there was a corresponding series of wet
:16:39. > :16:44.summers. That is one theory. Another theory relates to Arctic
:16:44. > :16:48.sea ice. You may have seen the reports this year about the fact
:16:48. > :16:54.that the sea ice melted to a degree that we've never seen before it was
:16:54. > :16:57.that low. One of the suggestions is that change in the amount of Arctic
:16:57. > :17:02.sea ice has led to shifts in the position of the jet stream and then
:17:02. > :17:06.to changes in the kind of weather we get in the UK. But of course,
:17:06. > :17:09.what we really want to know is what are the summers going to be like in
:17:09. > :17:14.the future? Well, it depends which of those two theories has the most
:17:14. > :17:17.effect. It's the relationship between those two and which is
:17:17. > :17:21.strongest which will determine what happens next. But in principle, if
:17:21. > :17:24.the North Atlantic warming reverses, then it could be that we flip into
:17:24. > :17:29.the opposite regime and have hot dry summers in a decade or two from
:17:29. > :17:35.now. But what if it's the second theory, the melting of the arctic
:17:35. > :17:39.ice which is the dominant factor what happens then? We think that
:17:39. > :17:42.the decline in Arctic sea ice is part of man-made climate change. So,
:17:42. > :17:45.as the globe warms up, the amount of Arctic sea ice is just declining.
:17:45. > :17:48.And if it's that which is dominating the position of the jet
:17:48. > :17:51.stream, then we're going into uncharted waters and we're kind of
:17:51. > :17:56.going into a position where the weather that we are experiencing in
:17:56. > :18:00.the summer may be starting to change. What a year of weather it's
:18:00. > :18:03.been, and the answers lie well beyond our shores. Now, if the
:18:03. > :18:07.North Atlantic cools down, we might get our sunny summers back. But if
:18:07. > :18:17.it's all down to the melting Arctic sea ice, we're just going to have
:18:17. > :18:19.
:18:19. > :18:24.So, while the causes of this weather are uncertain, we do know
:18:24. > :18:28.the profound effect it has had on our homes. It has also affected our
:18:28. > :18:32.largest industries and wildlife, so I'm going to tell you the story of
:18:32. > :18:42.this year's weather, and meet the people whose lives have been
:18:42. > :18:46.
:18:46. > :18:52.The year started with a storm and the BBC were there to report it.
:18:52. > :18:59.Conditions here on the north Cornwall coast absolutely atrocious.
:18:59. > :19:09.Once again, it brought havoc to the roads. Torrential rain and high
:19:09. > :19:16.
:19:16. > :19:21.winds felled trees. And this high- flyer. So far, so what? All pretty
:19:21. > :19:28.normal stuff for January. But it is what happened next that what had as
:19:28. > :19:31.weather watchers are really watching and wondering. The sun
:19:31. > :19:41.shone and shone, and kept on shining, with high pressure the
:19:41. > :19:41.
:19:42. > :19:51.dominant weather feature. It was the driest March since 1953, and I
:19:52. > :19:52.
:19:52. > :19:58.found myself reporting on it near record-breaking temperatures.
:19:58. > :20:05.is every chance we will see a 21 degrees, which will equal the
:20:05. > :20:11.record March temperature back in 1965. And the Environment Agency
:20:11. > :20:15.worried about that low water levels. It declared an environment or
:20:15. > :20:22.drought. But the first three months of this year was the real clincher,
:20:22. > :20:26.because we had no less than 50% of our normal rainfall. I've come to
:20:26. > :20:34.the Somerset Levels to find out the impact of this weird weather. Good
:20:34. > :20:39.morning. Good morning. What are we have been to see today? I meeting
:20:39. > :20:49.local resident Stephen Moss. He is leading a group to see the unique
:20:49. > :20:50.
:20:50. > :21:00.wetland habitat and wildlife here at a reserve. Oh, that is a really
:21:00. > :21:01.
:21:01. > :21:05.lovely bird. Can you see it? Just going to the left. So, earlier this
:21:05. > :21:10.year we had hosepipe bans on the east of England and the drought
:21:10. > :21:14.declared. It seems bizarre to be talking about trout, but it was
:21:14. > :21:18.very serious for the birds because it came on top of a year of dry
:21:18. > :21:23.weather. And the wetland birds, it looked like it would be a
:21:23. > :21:26.disastrous summer, because the forecast... I don't think the
:21:26. > :21:33.phrase barbecues summer was actually used, but if that had
:21:33. > :21:36.turned out to be the case, these birds would have been in trouble.
:21:36. > :21:41.So then it poured with rain in April. That must be really good
:21:41. > :21:45.news for here. For the birds, it looked like good news, but it just
:21:45. > :21:50.kept on coming. And it actually flooded quite a lot of their nests,
:21:50. > :22:00.which meant their eggs did not hat, or the Czechs simply drowned or
:22:00. > :22:02.
:22:02. > :22:05.froze to death. -- chicks. So, to be honest, I think 2012 has been a
:22:05. > :22:11.terrible year for wildlife. If it carries on like this, I am quite
:22:11. > :22:16.fearful about the future of Britain's wildlife. It is these
:22:16. > :22:20.extremes of weather that has made 2012 so strange. It was the wettest
:22:20. > :22:25.drought anyone can remember. In April, three times the normal
:22:25. > :22:30.rainfall had fallen, and on four separate days, more rain fell in 24
:22:30. > :22:36.hours than we normally expect for the entire week. When we add it all
:22:36. > :22:41.up, a pool turns out to be the wettest on record. And it was the
:22:41. > :22:48.farmers that suffered. Land was now sodden, borage that cattle under
:22:48. > :22:54.water. Planting wasn't possible. I am a Yealmpton, one of the sunniest
:22:54. > :23:01.places in Britain. Here, we had 200 hours' less sunshine this summer.
:23:01. > :23:05.Not only was a dull, it was also cold. July it was the coldest over
:23:05. > :23:14.10 years. The you and I that means less trips to the beach, but the
:23:14. > :23:18.some people it means much more. If it looks idyllic, then for the
:23:18. > :23:28.family who have been making cider in this ballot for over 200 years,
:23:28. > :23:30.
:23:30. > :23:40.it usually is. -- in this village. Hello, Richard. How you? Very well
:23:40. > :23:49.
:23:50. > :23:53.The way they make cider here hasn't changed much, but the weather?
:23:53. > :23:58.That's a different story. So how has it been for the apples? This
:23:58. > :24:02.year has been terrible. My father has been here for 60 years and this
:24:02. > :24:07.is the worst year he can remember, the wettest year and the poorest
:24:07. > :24:12.apple crop he can remember. We had a lot of rain throughout the summer,
:24:12. > :24:17.very little sunshine. We rely on that to help the apples swell, help
:24:17. > :24:23.the sugar levels. So have you made far less cider this year? We are
:24:23. > :24:29.down by about two-thirds on last year. So you've only made one third
:24:29. > :24:34.of what you normally expect to make? Yes. After a brief respite in
:24:34. > :24:38.May, there was more rain, and flooding in June and July. This
:24:38. > :24:45.time, it was more serious, with Rovers reaching their highest
:24:45. > :24:49.levels ever. Parts of the Olympic site in Dorset found themselves
:24:49. > :24:56.several feet under water, with a near by where the station reporting
:24:56. > :25:02.a record July rainfall. -- near by weather station. And the deluge was
:25:02. > :25:08.blamed for this dramatic rockfall which caused the death of a young
:25:08. > :25:16.woman, as well as this tunnel collapse which led to two debt. --
:25:16. > :25:20.dead. Fears that the Olympics would be a washout proved groundless, as
:25:20. > :25:29.the weather reverted to type. The first half of August was rather
:25:29. > :25:35.average, in the words of the Met Office. But luckily, not for medals.
:25:35. > :25:43.It wasn't to last. In September, it rained again and we saw more than a
:25:43. > :25:47.dozen flood warnings on rivers around the south-west. October's
:25:47. > :25:55.high-tide combined with more rain brought -- brought flooding to our
:25:55. > :25:59.coastal communities. And 2012 wasn't going to end quietly. In
:26:00. > :26:06.this extraordinary year, extraordinary snowfall. The
:26:06. > :26:10.earliest for several years. It's now November and already parts of
:26:10. > :26:15.the south-west are badly flooded. The problem is that now so much
:26:15. > :26:24.water is there that even if we just get the average rainfall for the
:26:24. > :26:33.rest of this winter, this flooding is going to continue. And it did.
:26:33. > :26:37.At one point, both the M5 and main train line to London were unusable.
:26:37. > :26:43.We think it's probably the biggest flooded then we had since 2000,
:26:43. > :26:47.when we were really badly affected. So it is a big operation for us.
:26:47. > :26:57.And it got bigger. This is the moment the 200 year-old Great
:26:57. > :27:01.
:27:01. > :27:06.Western Canal collapsed. Keep back, there it goes. It sent millions of
:27:06. > :27:13.gallons pouring on to local farmland. The canal itself was
:27:13. > :27:17.reduced to a muddy ditch. And there was more. A huge storm rolled over
:27:17. > :27:22.the south-west, bring in more than two inches of rain it to Cornwall
:27:22. > :27:32.in under 12 hours. Frantic attempts to clear drains and keep
:27:32. > :27:34.
:27:35. > :27:39.communities try met with limited success. Many towns and villages
:27:39. > :27:48.were affected - in all, more than 200 homes and businesses suffered
:27:48. > :27:55.flooding. Just a deluge of rain, flooding. We've never been so busy
:27:55. > :27:59.in the Fire and Rescue Service. Everybody has been out. Records
:27:59. > :28:03.were broken all year. The warmest March, the wettest April. Despite
:28:03. > :28:13.the deluge, November wasn't a record-breaker, but the ground can
:28:13. > :28:15.
:28:15. > :28:19.only hold so much water, and winter is not a yet. -- not over yet. Over
:28:19. > :28:22.the last 20 years, technology has improved, making forecasting in the
:28:22. > :28:27.short term more reliable. But could I tell you about the summer next