0:00:02 > 0:00:04It's variable,
0:00:04 > 0:00:07it's hard to predict, it has a massive impact
0:00:07 > 0:00:09every hour of every day.
0:00:09 > 0:00:12It is, of course, the weather.
0:00:14 > 0:00:19I'm Alok Jha and I'm a science journalist.
0:00:20 > 0:00:24I want to investigate how, through history,
0:00:24 > 0:00:28people have tried to predict what the weather will do.
0:00:28 > 0:00:30That's what this series is about.
0:00:30 > 0:00:33The story of the extraordinary characters
0:00:33 > 0:00:36who took on one of the hardest problems in science -
0:00:36 > 0:00:38how to forecast the weather.
0:00:38 > 0:00:42In this episode, we go back to the 1800s.
0:00:43 > 0:00:46In an age when what the weather did was a matter of life and death,
0:00:46 > 0:00:51I'll find out who sowed the seeds of modern forecasting,
0:00:51 > 0:00:54like the pharmacist who first named the clouds.
0:00:56 > 0:01:01I'll be experiencing Francis Beaufort's famous wind scale for myself...
0:01:01 > 0:01:06and discovering the story behind Britain's first weather forecast.
0:01:06 > 0:01:10I want to find out who made the science of meteorology happen
0:01:10 > 0:01:12and how did they do it?
0:01:12 > 0:01:14What technology did they develop down here
0:01:14 > 0:01:17to understand what was going on up there?
0:01:34 > 0:01:38Despite 200 years of trying to predict the weather,
0:01:38 > 0:01:42it's still incredibly hard to know what it will do tomorrow.
0:01:42 > 0:01:46And throughout history, people have tried to second-guess it.
0:01:50 > 0:01:54Before modern technology could help, people looked to the natural world
0:01:54 > 0:01:58for clues about what the weather might bring.
0:01:58 > 0:02:02Some of that ancient folklore still survives today,
0:02:02 > 0:02:04in traditional sayings handed down over time.
0:02:07 > 0:02:13One of the most famous is, "Red sky at night, shepherd's delight.
0:02:13 > 0:02:16"Red sky in the morning, shepherd's warning."
0:02:16 > 0:02:20Part of it is a reliable form of weather prediction.
0:02:21 > 0:02:24If we see a red sky at night,
0:02:24 > 0:02:28it means that the sky is clear to the west, where the sun is setting.
0:02:28 > 0:02:31As we get most of our weather from the west,
0:02:31 > 0:02:34it means fair weather is on the way.
0:02:41 > 0:02:45But red sky in the morning refers to weather in the east.
0:02:45 > 0:02:48That's the good weather that's leaving us.
0:02:49 > 0:02:53It could mean that bad weather is coming. But it may not.
0:02:53 > 0:02:55So, it's a less reliable saying.
0:02:57 > 0:03:00Another common belief is that you can get a sense of what
0:03:00 > 0:03:04the weather may do by looking at the behaviour of animals.
0:03:06 > 0:03:10We've all heard the old wives' tale, "If you see cows
0:03:10 > 0:03:14"lying down in a field, it must mean that rain is on the way."
0:03:14 > 0:03:17Now, there is no scientific evidence to show that that is true,
0:03:17 > 0:03:19or false, for that matter.
0:03:19 > 0:03:22But there are some bits of animal behaviour that might give us
0:03:22 > 0:03:26an indication of what the weather might do.
0:03:26 > 0:03:29CATTLE LOW
0:03:31 > 0:03:34Author Tristan Gooley has written about nature's
0:03:34 > 0:03:36clues concerning the weather.
0:03:36 > 0:03:42If anyone knows what old wives' tales we should take notice of, it's him.
0:03:42 > 0:03:46If we remember that cows are historically, in days gone by,
0:03:46 > 0:03:50they were prey animals, like sheep, like deer.
0:03:50 > 0:03:52Prey animals like to align themselves,
0:03:52 > 0:03:55so they've got their bums, their rear, into the wind.
0:03:55 > 0:03:58This allows them to look out in front of them and to the sides
0:03:58 > 0:04:02and pick up the scent of any predators coming from behind.
0:04:02 > 0:04:05This helps us because if we keep watching these animals
0:04:05 > 0:04:08and we notice they are all facing one way
0:04:08 > 0:04:11at one point in the day and a little bit later, they're facing another
0:04:11 > 0:04:15way, that's a really strong sign that the wind has changed direction.
0:04:15 > 0:04:17If the wind changes direction, that is
0:04:17 > 0:04:21a pretty sure sign that the weather is just about change.
0:04:21 > 0:04:23THUNDER ROLLS
0:04:23 > 0:04:27But even as late as the 1850s, people still thought that
0:04:27 > 0:04:31animals might be useful in predicting the onset of bad weather.
0:04:31 > 0:04:35One man even went as far as building an instrument to exploit that fact.
0:04:35 > 0:04:38He called it the tempest prognosticator.
0:04:38 > 0:04:42It was a sort of barometer but instead of mercury,
0:04:42 > 0:04:44it used leeches.
0:04:46 > 0:04:48On the face of it,
0:04:48 > 0:04:51a lot of people might say it's a nonsense thing, it's a joke.
0:04:51 > 0:04:53But no, far from it.
0:04:53 > 0:04:56Doctor George Merriweather, a medical doctor, Victorian,
0:04:56 > 0:04:58used leeches. They were in common use.
0:04:58 > 0:05:02But he had come across a poem by Erasmus Darwin and in that poem,
0:05:02 > 0:05:04which lists lots of local folklore
0:05:04 > 0:05:06about how the weather is going
0:05:06 > 0:05:11to be bad, says the leech has risen to the summit of his prison.
0:05:11 > 0:05:12So, the leech has gone up.
0:05:12 > 0:05:15And that's an indication that it triggered a thought
0:05:15 > 0:05:18in his mind that he might be able to build something to encapsulate
0:05:18 > 0:05:22that power, that natural instinct to predict the weather.
0:05:24 > 0:05:27He invented this contraption and it does work.
0:05:27 > 0:05:31It has 12 glass jars around it, each with a leech in,
0:05:31 > 0:05:35with a little bit of water and the leech, when it's going to be
0:05:35 > 0:05:38stormy, tries to come up and get out where the air is.
0:05:38 > 0:05:40And to do that, he has to try and get into that tube,
0:05:40 > 0:05:43which is covered by a little piece of bone.
0:05:43 > 0:05:46And by touching that, it releases a little hook there,
0:05:46 > 0:05:49which releases the chain, which releases the hammer to fall against the bell...
0:05:49 > 0:05:52- BELL CHIMES - ..and it goes "bing".
0:05:52 > 0:05:54So, you go to bed, perhaps you've set them all
0:05:54 > 0:05:57and you come down in the morning and there's 8 or 9 gone off, it is
0:05:57 > 0:06:00sure certainty that there's going to be a storm.
0:06:00 > 0:06:03If you come down and there's only perhaps one or two, perhaps they
0:06:03 > 0:06:06were just feeling a bit bored in the night and a bit more sensitive.
0:06:06 > 0:06:09That's why, probably you'd call them a jury of leeches, cos there's 12,
0:06:09 > 0:06:13the more bells that had gone off, the more chance of certainty of being a storm.
0:06:13 > 0:06:17BELL CHIMES Doctor Merriweather didn't manage to sell a single
0:06:17 > 0:06:19one of his strange leech devices.
0:06:19 > 0:06:23The tempest prognosticator was relegated to the history books
0:06:23 > 0:06:26as just another Victorian curiosity.
0:06:26 > 0:06:30It certainly works and there's no question of that in my mind.
0:06:30 > 0:06:32Leeches are very good with their instinct.
0:06:32 > 0:06:34It's not particularly easy to set up.
0:06:34 > 0:06:38Each little bell going off, you have to reset it. It's very finely set.
0:06:38 > 0:06:42And keeping leeches and keeping the jars clean and changing the water,
0:06:42 > 0:06:47yeah, a barometer is a lot more easy thing to use.
0:06:47 > 0:06:50It's certainly true that this contraption is a bit unwieldy
0:06:50 > 0:06:52to take on board a ship.
0:06:52 > 0:06:54And it was shipping that would eventually drive
0:06:54 > 0:06:57the science of the weather forward.
0:06:57 > 0:07:01Sea captains wanted a way of being able to second-guess the weather.
0:07:01 > 0:07:05And one instrument did exactly that. It was the barometer.
0:07:05 > 0:07:09It was invented in 1643
0:07:09 > 0:07:12but not out of a desire to predict the weather.
0:07:12 > 0:07:16Scientists were trying to solve a more mundane problem.
0:07:18 > 0:07:22To demonstrate what it was, I need a lot of water,
0:07:22 > 0:07:28a house on a hillside befitting an Italian nobleman and a chemist.
0:07:28 > 0:07:31The history of the barometer really starts
0:07:31 > 0:07:34with a very surprising observation.
0:07:34 > 0:07:38And it starts with a problem, in a way, of an Italian nobleman,
0:07:38 > 0:07:44who wanted to get water from a stream up to a garden at the top of the hill.
0:07:44 > 0:07:48And he and his workmen noticed something really bizarre
0:07:48 > 0:07:52and that was that they couldn't pump, by suction,
0:07:52 > 0:07:55the water up above about 11 metres.
0:07:55 > 0:07:57They just couldn't get it to the top of the hill.
0:07:57 > 0:08:01And so, at that point, what they did was they wrote to the most
0:08:01 > 0:08:04famous scientist of the day, that was Galileo,
0:08:04 > 0:08:08and they said, you know, "We don't understand, can you explain?"
0:08:08 > 0:08:12And Galileo had worried about this for some time
0:08:12 > 0:08:16and he imagined that when you've made this column of water
0:08:16 > 0:08:20and you've pumped it up, the weight of the water itself was
0:08:20 > 0:08:25so much that, actually, the water would snap, a bit like a rope.
0:08:25 > 0:08:29And so, at that point, a whole series of discussions ensued to try
0:08:29 > 0:08:32and understand what the nature of this problem was.
0:08:32 > 0:08:35Could you actually do an experiment that would prove this?
0:08:35 > 0:08:37Galileo suggests that instead of using water,
0:08:37 > 0:08:40you should use a denser liquid, like mercury,
0:08:40 > 0:08:45which would therefore allow the whole experiment to be scaled down.
0:08:45 > 0:08:49- So, you're not building an 11 metre tube of water?- Well, that's right.
0:08:49 > 0:08:52And it was one of his former students, a man called
0:08:52 > 0:08:57Evangelista Torricelli, who actually did the experiment.
0:08:57 > 0:09:00- And the results were really quite amazing.- What happened?
0:09:00 > 0:09:03Well, we should go and take a look.
0:09:03 > 0:09:06We need to get up that hill
0:09:06 > 0:09:10because we're going to recreate Torricelli's experiment of 1643.
0:09:10 > 0:09:17Torricelli is the Italian physicist and mathematician credited with inventing the barometer.
0:09:18 > 0:09:22Andrea has the glass tubes we need.
0:09:22 > 0:09:25More importantly, our quicksilver, mercury.
0:09:25 > 0:09:29So, here's the tube which we have to fill.
0:09:29 > 0:09:33'The glass tube has to be completely full, with no air inside,
0:09:33 > 0:09:35'for the experiment work.'
0:09:35 > 0:09:40So, Torricelli completely filled a glass tube with mercury.
0:09:40 > 0:09:45And then what he did was he upended it with his finger over
0:09:45 > 0:09:48the end of the tube, so that the mercury would stay in place.
0:09:48 > 0:09:52And then, he removed his finger
0:09:52 > 0:09:55and watch what happens at the top of the tube. Watch carefully.
0:09:55 > 0:10:00Suddenly, the mercury starts to drop, right?
0:10:00 > 0:10:04And an empty space appears at the top of the tube.
0:10:04 > 0:10:08This empty space wasn't there before. This was completely filled with mercury.
0:10:08 > 0:10:12- Absolutely. - And you put it into this reservoir and this gap's just appeared.
0:10:12 > 0:10:14- This is a vacuum.- It's a vacuum.
0:10:14 > 0:10:16- There's no way air could have gone up there.- That's right.
0:10:16 > 0:10:20And back then, vacuum was actually thought to be impossible.
0:10:20 > 0:10:24An idea that really went back 2,000 years to Aristotle.
0:10:24 > 0:10:26And yet, here it was.
0:10:26 > 0:10:29So, how is this vacuum being created then?
0:10:29 > 0:10:32So, what Torricelli realised was that what
0:10:32 > 0:10:36he had constructed was a way of actually weighing
0:10:36 > 0:10:41the atmosphere, exactly like a set of scales.
0:10:41 > 0:10:45And what he was doing was weighing the weight of the mercury
0:10:45 > 0:10:50in the tube against the weight of the air pressure
0:10:50 > 0:10:55pushing down on his reservoir. And the two were in perfect balance.
0:10:55 > 0:10:59And this led him to write to a friend of his,
0:10:59 > 0:11:01an incredible sentence.
0:11:01 > 0:11:07He wrote, "Noi viviamo sommersi nel fondo d'un pelago d'aria elementare."
0:11:07 > 0:11:12We live submerged at the bottom of an ocean of air.
0:11:12 > 0:11:14It was an extraordinary realisation.
0:11:14 > 0:11:18And I suppose at some point, the height of this thing will change,
0:11:18 > 0:11:20depending on the conditions in the air.
0:11:20 > 0:11:23Well, that was something that they spotted really quite quickly.
0:11:23 > 0:11:26And, in fact, in Italy, they were amongst the first people,
0:11:26 > 0:11:31really, to start realising that if you measure the height
0:11:31 > 0:11:35carefully, you notice that when the mercury dropped, well,
0:11:35 > 0:11:40that signalled that there was bad weather coming within a day or so.
0:11:40 > 0:11:42And if, on the other hand, the mercury went up,
0:11:42 > 0:11:45then there was good weather on the way.
0:11:45 > 0:11:49And barometers became completely fascinating.
0:11:49 > 0:11:51I mean, they spread like wildfire across Europe.
0:11:51 > 0:11:55I mean, no respectable scientist would be seen without
0:11:55 > 0:11:57a barometer in the corner.
0:11:57 > 0:12:00And everyone started recording pressures obsessively.
0:12:02 > 0:12:03In the early 1700s,
0:12:03 > 0:12:07the barometer became the must-have gadget for the well-to-do.
0:12:07 > 0:12:10And it happened just as the Age of Enlightenment began.
0:12:13 > 0:12:17It was a time when scientists categorised and classified nature.
0:12:17 > 0:12:21The weather was the last natural phenomenon to be classified
0:12:21 > 0:12:26and that started with its most enigmatic feature, clouds.
0:12:26 > 0:12:31In 1802, the pharmacist Luke Howard came up with
0:12:31 > 0:12:34a modern scientific method for describing them.
0:12:36 > 0:12:40His essay on the modification of clouds is now regarded as one of
0:12:40 > 0:12:45the most significant contributions to 19th-century meteorology.
0:12:46 > 0:12:50Author and historian Richard Hamblin has made a study of Luke Howard
0:12:50 > 0:12:52and his work.
0:12:52 > 0:12:54I'm meeting him on Hampstead Heath, where we
0:12:54 > 0:12:58can also get a good view of the sky.
0:12:58 > 0:13:02So, Richard, how did Luke Howard actually end up classifying the clouds?
0:13:02 > 0:13:06Well, his great insight was that clouds come in many different shapes
0:13:06 > 0:13:09but very few basic forms.
0:13:09 > 0:13:12I mean, if you look at the sky now, this great grey blanket,
0:13:12 > 0:13:15it looks like the sky is one giant cloud.
0:13:15 > 0:13:19This is a huge nimbostratus cloud that was raining earlier on.
0:13:19 > 0:13:21It's beginning to clear.
0:13:21 > 0:13:23But look, you've got these little puffs here,
0:13:23 > 0:13:27these little heaps, little bits of cumulus fractus,
0:13:27 > 0:13:30moving across the sky, breaking up, not going to last for long.
0:13:30 > 0:13:34Clouds come in almost infinite variety of shapes
0:13:34 > 0:13:36but very few basic forms.
0:13:36 > 0:13:39And that insight really led him to classifying them
0:13:39 > 0:13:41into three major families,
0:13:41 > 0:13:46to which he gave already existing Latin names.
0:13:46 > 0:13:50Cumulus, which is Latin for heap or pile.
0:13:50 > 0:13:53Stratus, Latin for layer or sheet.
0:13:53 > 0:13:57And cirrus, which is Latin for a sort of lock of hair or tendril.
0:13:57 > 0:14:00So, the clever part wasn't just the naming of parts, as it were,
0:14:00 > 0:14:02you know, the heaps and the layers,
0:14:02 > 0:14:06but what he came up with was a way of tracking clouds as they change.
0:14:06 > 0:14:09Because clouds are always on the move, they're never at rest,
0:14:09 > 0:14:12they're always rising, sinking, merging,
0:14:12 > 0:14:15spreading across the sky from one minute to the next.
0:14:15 > 0:14:17And one cloud will turn into another cloud.
0:14:17 > 0:14:21So, for example, a high, wispy cirrus cloud that descends
0:14:21 > 0:14:25and spreads into a layer is then called cirrostratus.
0:14:25 > 0:14:27And by doing that moment of naming,
0:14:27 > 0:14:30by saying a cirrus has spread into a cirrostratus,
0:14:30 > 0:14:35you're able to track changes of the clouds, almost in real time.
0:14:35 > 0:14:39Howard began with clouds in their simplest form,
0:14:39 > 0:14:43cumulus, stratus and cirrus.
0:14:44 > 0:14:47As clouds merge and transform, they could become
0:14:47 > 0:14:51cirrostratus, cirrocumulus, and stratocumulus.
0:14:51 > 0:14:56And there are other cloud types at higher altitudes.
0:14:57 > 0:15:01Finally, cumulonimbus is a tall thundercloud.
0:15:01 > 0:15:05It was the ninth of the 10 cloud types to be categorised,
0:15:05 > 0:15:07and if you were in a good mood,
0:15:07 > 0:15:10rising above the storm, you'd be on cloud nine.
0:15:11 > 0:15:13The impact of Howard's cloud classifications went
0:15:13 > 0:15:16far beyond the sciences.
0:15:16 > 0:15:19It coincided with the Romantic movement,
0:15:19 > 0:15:22a time when artists were drawing on nature for inspiration.
0:15:22 > 0:15:26In the hands of one of the most celebrated Romantic
0:15:26 > 0:15:30artists of the period, John Constable, the weather became art.
0:15:33 > 0:15:37The Victoria and Albert Museum in London holds the largest collection
0:15:37 > 0:15:41of his work, which he began exhibiting in 1803.
0:15:43 > 0:15:47Constable sought to paint landscape pictures that had dramatic
0:15:47 > 0:15:49weather effects.
0:15:49 > 0:15:52He mentions in a letter of 1821, that
0:15:52 > 0:15:56the sky is the principal organ of sentiment.
0:15:56 > 0:16:01It means that the main emotional content of a landscape
0:16:01 > 0:16:03comes from the sky effects.
0:16:03 > 0:16:08And pictures like these drew on the oil sketches of skies
0:16:08 > 0:16:11and so on, he called it "skying",
0:16:11 > 0:16:15that he made near his house in Hampstead, in the early 1820s.
0:16:17 > 0:16:23Here, we have 30 or 40 of Constable's famous oil sketches.
0:16:23 > 0:16:27A number of the sketches have little notes scribbled on the back.
0:16:27 > 0:16:32They say things like the time of day and they mention weather effects.
0:16:32 > 0:16:36Some of them say, you know, "cloud coming on" and so on.
0:16:36 > 0:16:39I mean, the famous remark about cirrus
0:16:39 > 0:16:42because he's using this technical term,
0:16:42 > 0:16:45is indicative of the fact that he knew what cirrus clouds were.
0:16:45 > 0:16:49So, he's kind of augmenting his countryman's eye
0:16:49 > 0:16:53with theoretical knowledge.
0:16:53 > 0:16:58But looking at nature itself was absolutely central to what he did.
0:16:58 > 0:17:03Constable's sky studies prove his fascination for the clouds.
0:17:03 > 0:17:06But it wasn't just clouds that the Victorians wanted to classify
0:17:06 > 0:17:09in scientific terms.
0:17:09 > 0:17:13GREENWICH TIME SIGNAL PIPS
0:17:13 > 0:17:16Now, it's time for the shipping forecast,
0:17:16 > 0:17:18issued by the Met Office on behalf of the Maritime
0:17:18 > 0:17:21and Coastguard Agency, at 1130 on Thursday 24th March.
0:17:21 > 0:17:25The shipping forecast is one of the most familiar sounds
0:17:25 > 0:17:29and one of the longest-running programmes on British radio.
0:17:29 > 0:17:32There are warnings of gales in Sole, Shannon, Rockall...
0:17:32 > 0:17:37It owes its origin to Sir Francis Beaufort, who in 1805,
0:17:37 > 0:17:41came up with a numerical scale used to classify the force of the wind.
0:17:41 > 0:17:45South Biscay, variable three or less, becoming westerly
0:17:45 > 0:17:48or south-westerly, four or five, occasionally six later.
0:17:48 > 0:17:50It's called the Beaufort scale,
0:17:50 > 0:17:53still used in the shipping forecast today.
0:17:53 > 0:17:56Well, that brings us to the end of the shipping forecast.
0:17:56 > 0:17:59You can hear the next forecast at six minutes to six.
0:18:01 > 0:18:04Beaufort had a reputation for meticulous record-keeping,
0:18:04 > 0:18:06that would eventually earn him the title Admiral
0:18:06 > 0:18:10and a position as hydrographer of the Navy.
0:18:13 > 0:18:17He produced his wind scale whilst recuperating from an injury
0:18:17 > 0:18:21received in a battle with the French Navy.
0:18:21 > 0:18:24In creating the scale, he applied the same principles that
0:18:24 > 0:18:28Luke Howard had proposed when he classified the clouds.
0:18:32 > 0:18:36I've come to the Met Office in Exeter, where some of the earliest
0:18:36 > 0:18:40weather records, dating back to the mid-1700s, are kept.
0:18:42 > 0:18:47Katherine Ross looks after the nation's meteorological archaeology.
0:18:47 > 0:18:51And she has a very important document to show me.
0:18:54 > 0:18:57This is Rear Admiral Beaufort's diary, in his own handwriting.
0:18:57 > 0:19:00The page we are looking at here is where he wrote down,
0:19:00 > 0:19:03for the very first time, his Beaufort scale of wind.
0:19:03 > 0:19:08As you can see, there are 13 forces, starting with zero for calm,
0:19:08 > 0:19:11three, light breeze, six, fresh breeze.
0:19:11 > 0:19:14Six different types of gale and then 13 being a storm,
0:19:14 > 0:19:16his highest force at the time.
0:19:16 > 0:19:19This scale is obviously a little bit subjective. How useful was it?
0:19:19 > 0:19:22Yes, it was a starting point but Beaufort himself
0:19:22 > 0:19:24realised that this was not the be-all and end-all.
0:19:24 > 0:19:28He was quite frustrated that sailors were using lots of different terms
0:19:28 > 0:19:31for the same wind speed and that there wasn't a way to universally
0:19:31 > 0:19:36apply the same language to the same wind on all occasions.
0:19:36 > 0:19:40And so, he devised a wind scale which would allow just that.
0:19:40 > 0:19:43So, the following year, he came up with his second version.
0:19:43 > 0:19:46- And you've got that in your hands. - This is his second diary.- Yes.
0:19:46 > 0:19:48See if you can recognise any differences.
0:19:48 > 0:19:50Right, well, I can see the first page, this is the scale of wind.
0:19:50 > 0:19:53There is a 12-point scale, going up to hurricane.
0:19:53 > 0:19:55And starting off with light air.
0:19:55 > 0:19:58This is very similar to the scale we use today.
0:19:58 > 0:20:01Yes, we still use the 12-point Beaufort scale.
0:20:01 > 0:20:04The other interesting thing about this scale is that
0:20:04 > 0:20:08Beaufort described the exact conditions in which each
0:20:08 > 0:20:12type of force would be applicable, so that captains could always know
0:20:12 > 0:20:16that they were applying the right force to the right wind conditions.
0:20:16 > 0:20:18And therefore, it would be a universal system.
0:20:18 > 0:20:23Beaufort's wind scale also describes the state of the sea.
0:20:24 > 0:20:28At scale 1, the wind speed is 2 knots, almost 3mph,
0:20:28 > 0:20:31with a sea described as calm, rippled.
0:20:33 > 0:20:40But at scale 12, the wind speed is over 60 knots, more than 74mph,
0:20:40 > 0:20:43with a sea described as phenomenal.
0:20:43 > 0:20:45You can tell what the scale is
0:20:45 > 0:20:47just by looking at the state of the sea.
0:20:50 > 0:20:52I'm going to find out what it's like
0:20:52 > 0:20:56to feel the force of the wind that the Beaufort scale measures.
0:20:57 > 0:21:01So I've come to BMT Fluid Mechanics in Teddington.
0:21:01 > 0:21:03They operate several wind tunnels here
0:21:03 > 0:21:07to test whether ships, oil rigs and buildings
0:21:07 > 0:21:09can withstand the force of the wind
0:21:09 > 0:21:12before the full-scale objects are constructed.
0:21:14 > 0:21:17Today, project manager David Ravenscroft
0:21:17 > 0:21:19is testing my ability to stay upright
0:21:19 > 0:21:22throughout the entire Beaufort scale.
0:21:22 > 0:21:24As you can see, this is the wind tunnel.
0:21:24 > 0:21:26How closely can you simulate the Beaufort scale in here?
0:21:26 > 0:21:28We can simulate it very closely.
0:21:28 > 0:21:31We can run the wind tunnel from zero up to 110mph
0:21:31 > 0:21:34and every kind of increment of wind speed in between,
0:21:34 > 0:21:36so yeah, very closely to the actual Beaufort scale.
0:21:38 > 0:21:42The wind tunnel looks small, but it's very powerful.
0:21:42 > 0:21:45It's capable of producing very high wind speeds.
0:21:47 > 0:21:49So I'm being very carefully strapped in.
0:21:56 > 0:21:57Our operator, Tom,
0:21:57 > 0:22:00is going to slowly increase the wind speeds in here
0:22:00 > 0:22:04and then step us up through the Beaufort scale.
0:22:04 > 0:22:06So let's get going.
0:22:06 > 0:22:08WHIRRING
0:22:15 > 0:22:18OK, so we're at number 1 on the Beaufort scale.
0:22:18 > 0:22:21This is just light air. Nothing uncomfortable.
0:22:22 > 0:22:25Beaufort's scale measures even the lightest wind,
0:22:25 > 0:22:28which he classifies as breezes.
0:22:29 > 0:22:32At 2 on the scale, it's a light breeze.
0:22:33 > 0:22:37Further up the scale, things get a bit rougher.
0:22:38 > 0:22:41This is 8 on the Beaufort scale.
0:22:41 > 0:22:4443 or so miles an hour. This is a gale.
0:22:44 > 0:22:46And for the first time,
0:22:46 > 0:22:49I can actually feel slightly pushed back.
0:22:51 > 0:22:55I'm having to just lean forward slightly to stay upright.
0:22:55 > 0:23:00And I can feel my clothes sort of being splayed out slightly.
0:23:00 > 0:23:04Scale 8 is a very rough to high sea.
0:23:04 > 0:23:08At scales 10 and 11, it's described as very high,
0:23:08 > 0:23:12with winds approaching 60 knots, more than 70mph.
0:23:12 > 0:23:17But at the top of the scale, things get much, much worse.
0:23:46 > 0:23:49Thankfully, they don't subject me to force 12 for too long.
0:23:56 > 0:23:58Thank goodness you're here.
0:24:00 > 0:24:02Well, that was incredibly unpleasant.
0:24:02 > 0:24:04As the wind started to pick up...
0:24:04 > 0:24:07It started off as something quite gentle on the face.
0:24:07 > 0:24:09Very soon, my hands and face, that were exposed,
0:24:09 > 0:24:11got very, very cold.
0:24:11 > 0:24:14And towards the sort of storm speeds,
0:24:14 > 0:24:16it's incredibly difficult to stand up, obviously.
0:24:16 > 0:24:20I was using every muscle in my body to sort of fight against the wind.
0:24:20 > 0:24:21Thank goodness for these ropes.
0:24:21 > 0:24:24Otherwise I would have definitely blown right back
0:24:24 > 0:24:27into the back of this tunnel here.
0:24:27 > 0:24:29Definitely don't want to be in a hurricane any time soon.
0:24:30 > 0:24:34Initially, Beaufort's wind scale didn't catch on.
0:24:34 > 0:24:37The Navy were more preoccupied with fighting the French
0:24:37 > 0:24:39than understanding the weather.
0:24:39 > 0:24:44But all that changed in 1815 with the end of the Napoleonic Wars.
0:24:48 > 0:24:52The focus of training, then at the naval college in Portsmouth,
0:24:52 > 0:24:56shifted from warfare to exploration and mapping.
0:24:57 > 0:25:01The naval world that Francis Beaufort occupied was a tough place.
0:25:01 > 0:25:04And not every young officer had what it took
0:25:04 > 0:25:06to captain their own ship.
0:25:06 > 0:25:09But Beaufort had been impressed by one young man
0:25:09 > 0:25:11who seemed to have the same attention to detail
0:25:11 > 0:25:14in record-keeping that Beaufort himself had.
0:25:14 > 0:25:16His name was Robert FitzRoy.
0:25:19 > 0:25:22Robert FitzRoy would almost single-handedly invent
0:25:22 > 0:25:24modern meteorology,
0:25:24 > 0:25:26and today has a region of the ocean named after him
0:25:26 > 0:25:29for the purposes of the shipping forecast.
0:25:31 > 0:25:35He joined the Royal Naval College when he was just 12 years old
0:25:35 > 0:25:38and would have learnt his trade on ships much like this one -
0:25:38 > 0:25:40the HMS Victory.
0:25:41 > 0:25:46By 1828, aged 22, he got his first command
0:25:46 > 0:25:48as captain of the HMS Beagle,
0:25:48 > 0:25:53the same ship on which Charles Darwin sailed a few years later.
0:25:58 > 0:26:00FitzRoy's task as captain of the Beagle
0:26:00 > 0:26:05was to survey Tierra del Fuego, the southern tip of South America.
0:26:06 > 0:26:08Aboard the Beagle,
0:26:08 > 0:26:11FitzRoy proved himself to be a fine officer and leader,
0:26:11 > 0:26:14and while he was sailing through the South Atlantic,
0:26:14 > 0:26:15he noticed in a very personal way
0:26:15 > 0:26:18the cost of not being able to predict the weather.
0:26:18 > 0:26:21Just off the coast of Uruguay, at the Maldonado Bay,
0:26:21 > 0:26:25he noticed that the air pressure as measured by his barometers
0:26:25 > 0:26:26was suddenly dropping.
0:26:26 > 0:26:2915 minutes later, the Beagle was hit by a pampero,
0:26:29 > 0:26:32a feared south-westerly squall.
0:26:32 > 0:26:36It was an experience FitzRoy would never forget.
0:26:36 > 0:26:38WIND HOWLS
0:26:41 > 0:26:43To get a sense of what FitzRoy faced,
0:26:43 > 0:26:46I'm going out into the Solent from Portsmouth
0:26:46 > 0:26:49on skipper Chris Smith's yacht, Avocette.
0:26:53 > 0:26:56FitzRoy was mapping the coastline of South America,
0:26:56 > 0:27:00so like him, we're staying within sight of land.
0:27:00 > 0:27:03Today, I can see white horses topping the waves,
0:27:03 > 0:27:07suggesting a wind speed of around 10 knots, or 12mph.
0:27:07 > 0:27:10That's a moderate breeze on Beaufort's scale,
0:27:10 > 0:27:13which also accurately describes the state of the sea
0:27:13 > 0:27:15as slight moderate.
0:27:16 > 0:27:18The conditions here today
0:27:18 > 0:27:23are much calmer than those FitzRoy faced off the Maldonado Bay in 1828.
0:27:23 > 0:27:26Within 15 minutes of his barometer dropping,
0:27:26 > 0:27:30there was wind, hail and lightning in the sky all at once.
0:27:30 > 0:27:3315 minutes later, the worst of the storm had passed,
0:27:33 > 0:27:38but two men had fallen overboard and FitzRoy felt responsible.
0:27:38 > 0:27:42His barometer had given him notice, but he hadn't acted in time.
0:27:48 > 0:27:51FitzRoy didn't have the modern navigation tools like GPS
0:27:51 > 0:27:54that today we take for granted.
0:27:54 > 0:27:57But he did have the best equipment the Navy could provide -
0:27:57 > 0:28:02sextants, charts, his barometer and, of course, his naval training.
0:28:07 > 0:28:11FitzRoy completed his survey and his trip was judged a success.
0:28:11 > 0:28:13But he was haunted by the storm
0:28:13 > 0:28:16in which he'd lost two of his crewmates
0:28:16 > 0:28:18and almost lost his ship.
0:28:21 > 0:28:25Despite this, FitzRoy returned to Portsmouth from South America
0:28:25 > 0:28:27with his reputation enhanced.
0:28:29 > 0:28:33Francis Beaufort was so impressed with FitzRoy's new maps
0:28:33 > 0:28:36that he renewed his captaincy of the Beagle.
0:28:36 > 0:28:40In 1831, he set sail once more,
0:28:40 > 0:28:42this time with Charles Darwin on board
0:28:42 > 0:28:46and, importantly, armed with Beaufort's wind scale.
0:28:46 > 0:28:49It was the first time this was used at sea.
0:28:55 > 0:28:59But while FitzRoy and Darwin were down in the southern seas...
0:29:01 > 0:29:03..at Greenwich near London,
0:29:03 > 0:29:06another extraordinary character would bring weather forecasting,
0:29:06 > 0:29:09till then the personal obsession of a few scientists,
0:29:09 > 0:29:11to the general public.
0:29:13 > 0:29:16His name was James Glaisher,
0:29:16 > 0:29:20and in 1840, he was appointed Britain's first meteorologist
0:29:20 > 0:29:22here at the Royal Observatory.
0:29:24 > 0:29:26Glaisher never attempted to forecast the weather,
0:29:26 > 0:29:29but he took us one crucial step closer to it.
0:29:31 > 0:29:33He set himself the epic task
0:29:33 > 0:29:37of creating Britain's first nationwide weather report.
0:29:37 > 0:29:40He did it by distributing weather report forms
0:29:40 > 0:29:43to a network of observers dotted around the country.
0:29:43 > 0:29:45The measurements they made
0:29:45 > 0:29:48would provide a record of the weather at each location.
0:29:51 > 0:29:54Author Peter Moore is about to give me a lesson
0:29:54 > 0:29:57in early Victorian weather reporting.
0:30:01 > 0:30:05So, let's have a go at filling this in with today's weather.
0:30:05 > 0:30:07- I'm going to give this to you.- OK.
0:30:07 > 0:30:10- So, first of all, we need to... - Time of day.
0:30:10 > 0:30:13- It's about midday, isn't it? - Yeah, about midday.
0:30:13 > 0:30:18- The wind, we can see from up there, is blowing from the east.- Yeah.
0:30:18 > 0:30:20- So the east. - Yeah, exactly, so put that in.
0:30:20 > 0:30:24Now we've got to go for one of these variables, so what would you say?
0:30:24 > 0:30:25It's calm, pretty much...
0:30:25 > 0:30:28'These cards, or skeleton forms,
0:30:28 > 0:30:30'were distributed to a network of weather observers
0:30:30 > 0:30:34'that Glaisher set up around the country.
0:30:34 > 0:30:37'What Glaisher wanted was accurate weather measurements
0:30:37 > 0:30:40'taken at the same time of day at different locations.'
0:30:42 > 0:30:45And last of all, we need your signature at the bottom.
0:30:45 > 0:30:46I've done a piece of science there.
0:30:46 > 0:30:49- You've done a bit of 1849 citizen science.- Very good.
0:30:49 > 0:30:51It's ready to be sent back to James Glaisher...
0:30:51 > 0:30:53- Here.- ..here at Greenwich, yeah.
0:30:55 > 0:30:57'Although the data he required was basic,
0:30:57 > 0:30:59'it was enough to provide a weather report
0:30:59 > 0:31:02'suitable for publishing in the London newspapers
0:31:02 > 0:31:04'the following day.'
0:31:04 > 0:31:06How did he get the information back?
0:31:06 > 0:31:09There's a few vital things about the 1840s you have to bear in mind,
0:31:09 > 0:31:11the first being the railway,
0:31:11 > 0:31:14which allowed, you know, people to travel around.
0:31:14 > 0:31:17So he could travel around and visit these kind of coastal places
0:31:17 > 0:31:20where he was having observations, so check their latitude was right,
0:31:20 > 0:31:22show them how to use the instruments.
0:31:22 > 0:31:25So he could go out and come back, and it was not a long coach journey.
0:31:25 > 0:31:28And then you had the electromagnetic telegraph,
0:31:28 > 0:31:31which was absolutely revolutionary in its time.
0:31:31 > 0:31:33It just changed society in a flash
0:31:33 > 0:31:36in the sense that what was happening in Newcastle
0:31:36 > 0:31:40now could be sent along the wires and be published in London.
0:31:40 > 0:31:42You've got the telegraph, you've got the trains,
0:31:42 > 0:31:45you've got these systematic people all across the country.
0:31:45 > 0:31:48What was Glaisher able to do with that network, then?
0:31:48 > 0:31:52OK, we've got to the year 1848.
0:31:52 > 0:31:56And there's a new daily newspaper in town called the Daily News,
0:31:56 > 0:31:59set up by Charles Dickens, who wanted to get into journalism.
0:31:59 > 0:32:02And they came up with this idea in 1848
0:32:02 > 0:32:04that what they would try and do
0:32:04 > 0:32:06would be to provide some weather reports
0:32:06 > 0:32:09of what was going on in different parts of the country
0:32:09 > 0:32:11for the London readership - this was a new idea.
0:32:11 > 0:32:14So someone from the Daily News
0:32:14 > 0:32:17contacted James Glaisher at Greenwich,
0:32:17 > 0:32:19and at that point, Glaisher thought, oh, yeah,
0:32:19 > 0:32:22this is what I'm going to do with my weather network -
0:32:22 > 0:32:24I'm going to bring it all together.
0:32:24 > 0:32:27And so we start getting the very first weather reports
0:32:27 > 0:32:29from August 1848.
0:32:29 > 0:32:33The first data was sent back using the fledgling telegraph system,
0:32:33 > 0:32:36what would eventually become the telephone network.
0:32:36 > 0:32:39But that soon proved unaffordable.
0:32:39 > 0:32:43Glaisher needed an alternative, and he settled on the railway.
0:32:44 > 0:32:46With 5,000 miles of track,
0:32:46 > 0:32:49the network was big enough and fast enough
0:32:49 > 0:32:51to get the data back in time
0:32:51 > 0:32:55to appear in Charles Dickens' new newspaper the following day.
0:32:58 > 0:33:00This was around 170 years ago,
0:33:00 > 0:33:03and although they were popular, these were just weather reports
0:33:03 > 0:33:05about things that had happened in the country already.
0:33:05 > 0:33:08It was a far cry from an actual weather prediction.
0:33:08 > 0:33:11That remained tantalisingly out of reach.
0:33:13 > 0:33:16The weather reports weren't forecasts.
0:33:16 > 0:33:18But they did enable a crucial new development.
0:33:20 > 0:33:23People could now plan how to respond to the weather.
0:33:25 > 0:33:29In 1853, a US naval officer named Matthew Maury
0:33:29 > 0:33:32sifted through a hundred years of ships' logs
0:33:32 > 0:33:35and spotted patterns in the weather's behaviour.
0:33:40 > 0:33:42At the Met Office archive
0:33:42 > 0:33:45is a set of charts Maury produced from the logs.
0:33:45 > 0:33:46They're not forecasts,
0:33:46 > 0:33:50but they did enable seafarers to find safer and quicker routes.
0:33:51 > 0:33:55- So this is an incredibly heavy set of charts.- Yes, it is.
0:33:55 > 0:33:58It's all of Maury's charts that he put together
0:33:58 > 0:34:01from literally thousands of ships' meteorological logs
0:34:01 > 0:34:05which he had access to whilst he was working for the US Navy.
0:34:05 > 0:34:07And Maury thought if he put all of that together
0:34:07 > 0:34:10then he could give people all this information in one place,
0:34:10 > 0:34:14he could literally unlock all this information about the oceans.
0:34:14 > 0:34:17Each line on these wind and current charts
0:34:17 > 0:34:20represents a single ship's journey.
0:34:20 > 0:34:23Maury then divided the ocean into ten-degree squares
0:34:23 > 0:34:27which allowed seamen to find and follow the prevailing winds.
0:34:27 > 0:34:32It wasn't a forecast, but it was a big step forward.
0:34:32 > 0:34:34So if I'm a sailor, I can tell from this diagram
0:34:34 > 0:34:37where the winds are blowing, or have been blowing,
0:34:37 > 0:34:38and I can try and predict
0:34:38 > 0:34:41or understand what the weather's like in that area.
0:34:41 > 0:34:43Yes, you should be able to look at this and decide,
0:34:43 > 0:34:44I want to get from here to here
0:34:44 > 0:34:46but, actually, my quickest route is that way,
0:34:46 > 0:34:48not straight through there.
0:34:50 > 0:34:52Britain was at the centre of world trade
0:34:52 > 0:34:56and relied entirely on ships at sea to deliver goods safely.
0:34:56 > 0:34:58The Board of Trade in London
0:34:58 > 0:35:02wanted charts that would cut journey times and improve safety,
0:35:02 > 0:35:04just like Matthew Maury's.
0:35:05 > 0:35:07They appointed Robert FitzRoy,
0:35:07 > 0:35:10the former captain of HMS Beagle, to do just that.
0:35:10 > 0:35:12In 1854,
0:35:12 > 0:35:16he became the meteorological statist to the Board of Trade
0:35:16 > 0:35:20here at No 2 Parliament Street, right in the heart of London.
0:35:22 > 0:35:24FitzRoy was certain he could get the data
0:35:24 > 0:35:26and create the new charts.
0:35:26 > 0:35:30He very quickly presented his solution to his new bosses.
0:35:33 > 0:35:37So, these are Admiral FitzRoy's wind stars,
0:35:37 > 0:35:40which were essentially a reworking of Maury's charts.
0:35:40 > 0:35:44And what am I looking at? I can see what look like triangular shapes.
0:35:44 > 0:35:48It's essentially the same information as Maury had plotted,
0:35:48 > 0:35:50but in a much more user-friendly way.
0:35:50 > 0:35:53It's essentially an at-a-glance system.
0:35:53 > 0:35:55So you have the same ten-degrees squares
0:35:55 > 0:35:57of, in this case, the North Atlantic,
0:35:57 > 0:36:01and then you have triangles coming out in rays from the centre.
0:36:01 > 0:36:03And the larger the triangle,
0:36:03 > 0:36:05the more observations of that wind direction.
0:36:05 > 0:36:08So it's therefore showing you the prevailing wind.
0:36:08 > 0:36:10And then when it was available,
0:36:10 > 0:36:14he also used dots to show you the average wind.
0:36:14 > 0:36:17So, again, you would just be able to know very quickly
0:36:17 > 0:36:20how often you'd find a wind in that direction
0:36:20 > 0:36:22and its average speed.
0:36:22 > 0:36:26He also used current information
0:36:26 > 0:36:29and he even provided information on the number of calms
0:36:29 > 0:36:31that were reported in any given square.
0:36:31 > 0:36:33The size of the circle in the middle of the square
0:36:33 > 0:36:36shows you how often it was calm in that location.
0:36:36 > 0:36:37And so a sailor could look at this
0:36:37 > 0:36:40and work out the best route between different places,
0:36:40 > 0:36:42the safest route between different places?
0:36:42 > 0:36:46Yes, FitzRoy's purpose when he came to work for the Board of Trade
0:36:46 > 0:36:48was to improve the safety of life and property at sea,
0:36:48 > 0:36:51and these charts had a lot to do with that.
0:36:51 > 0:36:53They could enable you to make a journey faster,
0:36:53 > 0:36:55and therefore safer.
0:36:55 > 0:36:57- So sailors really were thankful for these things?- Absolutely.
0:36:57 > 0:37:00Yes, they were good for commerce, but they saved life.
0:37:04 > 0:37:07But it would be the weather around Britain's coastline
0:37:07 > 0:37:10that would become FitzRoy's real obsession.
0:37:10 > 0:37:14In the 1850s, hundreds of ships were lost every year.
0:37:14 > 0:37:16FitzRoy made it his personal mission
0:37:16 > 0:37:19to prevent at least some of this loss of life
0:37:19 > 0:37:22by providing coastal towns and villages with barometers.
0:37:26 > 0:37:28The result was the positioning of barometers
0:37:28 > 0:37:32at prominent places at the ports, paid for by FitzRoy's department.
0:37:36 > 0:37:39Historian Sarah Dry has made a study of FitzRoy
0:37:39 > 0:37:42and his relationship with the fishermen
0:37:42 > 0:37:43who bore the brunt of losses at sea.
0:37:45 > 0:37:48Once he's in this position in this central government office,
0:37:48 > 0:37:50FitzRoy can't resist doing what he really cares about,
0:37:50 > 0:37:54which is trying to help fishermen and sailors be safer at sea.
0:37:54 > 0:37:58And the way he does this is by lending them
0:37:58 > 0:38:01very expensive scientific instruments,
0:38:01 > 0:38:04made in the city by elite craftsman,
0:38:04 > 0:38:08and sending them to local coastal communities,
0:38:08 > 0:38:12often very poor, often with illiterate fishermen,
0:38:12 > 0:38:14to be used to aid the sailors
0:38:14 > 0:38:17in making decisions about when it would be safe to go to sea.
0:38:17 > 0:38:20These FitzRoy barometers, as they became known,
0:38:20 > 0:38:23provided pressure and temperature measurements.
0:38:23 > 0:38:25FitzRoy's accompanying instructions
0:38:25 > 0:38:29explained how the fishermen should interpret the readings.
0:38:29 > 0:38:31What's interesting about the barometers
0:38:31 > 0:38:33is that he expressly does not want them
0:38:33 > 0:38:35to be used to record observations.
0:38:35 > 0:38:38He's insistent that he needs these observations,
0:38:38 > 0:38:40they need to be recorded in a disciplined manner,
0:38:40 > 0:38:43they're brought to a central office, they're collated, they're reduced,
0:38:43 > 0:38:46they're turned into the foundations for the science.
0:38:46 > 0:38:49When he sends the barometers to fishermen, he says,
0:38:49 > 0:38:51no, we can't trust the fishermen to take the readings.
0:38:51 > 0:38:54These barometers are to be used by the fishermen themselves
0:38:54 > 0:38:57to support their own independent judgments.
0:38:58 > 0:39:00By distributing the barometers,
0:39:00 > 0:39:03FitzRoy was improving life for the fishing communities
0:39:03 > 0:39:05around the coast of Britain.
0:39:05 > 0:39:08He was so enthusiastic about it,
0:39:08 > 0:39:12he even funded the construction of some of them himself.
0:39:12 > 0:39:16But his goal of weather prediction was still out of reach.
0:39:17 > 0:39:21Then fate intervened in the most dramatic way.
0:39:28 > 0:39:30This is the village of Moelfre
0:39:30 > 0:39:33on the east coast of Anglesey island.
0:39:33 > 0:39:37On the night of October 25th 1859,
0:39:37 > 0:39:40the ship the Royal Charter was wrecked nearby.
0:39:42 > 0:39:45This photograph shows the aftermath of the wreck
0:39:45 > 0:39:48with its tragic remains being salvaged.
0:39:51 > 0:39:53The Royal Charter was a steam clipper ship
0:39:53 > 0:39:57nearing the end of a two-month journey from Australia to Liverpool.
0:40:00 > 0:40:02Many of the passengers were gold miners,
0:40:02 > 0:40:06returning home as rich men with their pockets full of treasure.
0:40:08 > 0:40:10But by the following morning,
0:40:10 > 0:40:14most of the passengers and crew had lost their lives.
0:40:14 > 0:40:18As the Royal Charter rounded the north-east tip of the island,
0:40:18 > 0:40:21the storm forced the ship towards rocks
0:40:21 > 0:40:23about a mile to the north of Moelfre.
0:40:35 > 0:40:39Local Peter Day has been studying the tragedy of the Royal Charter
0:40:39 > 0:40:41for over 40 years.
0:40:43 > 0:40:46So this is the area here, this is where the Royal Charter ended up?
0:40:46 > 0:40:50- Absolutely.- So describe the scene for me that night.
0:40:50 > 0:40:53How did the ship end up being pushed against the rocks so much?
0:40:53 > 0:40:57Because having come past that headland over there,
0:40:57 > 0:41:01the wind was so strong, it had blown the sails out of the rigging.
0:41:01 > 0:41:04They dropped the anchors to try and stay the movement of the ship.
0:41:04 > 0:41:08And then the wind turned to blow directly in towards the shore
0:41:08 > 0:41:12and was so powerful, it snapped both of the anchor chains
0:41:12 > 0:41:14and was simply blown in
0:41:14 > 0:41:17until the stern of the ship hit the rocks down here.
0:41:17 > 0:41:20And then the ship was pressed round broadside on,
0:41:20 > 0:41:22and gradually then, the wrecking process began.
0:41:22 > 0:41:26Was there any way they could have avoided being smashed against the rocks?
0:41:26 > 0:41:28- None at all.- And describe for me, who saw it first?
0:41:28 > 0:41:30The first people to see it
0:41:30 > 0:41:33were two men working on the roof of that large white house
0:41:33 > 0:41:35across the bay there.
0:41:35 > 0:41:38It was a thatched roof, and the wind was lifting it,
0:41:38 > 0:41:40so they were climbing up, throwing ropes over,
0:41:40 > 0:41:45and as daybreak began, they then saw the wreck here on the rocks.
0:41:45 > 0:41:48- And what did they do? - Well, one ran down here.
0:41:48 > 0:41:50The other ran round the village summoning help.
0:41:50 > 0:41:54And eventually, a team of men known as "the famous 28"
0:41:54 > 0:41:57formed a human chain, and they were getting people out of the water.
0:41:57 > 0:41:59Now, what's remarkable about this
0:41:59 > 0:42:02is that the shoreline's not very far away.
0:42:02 > 0:42:05It seems as though you could just go down here and help.
0:42:05 > 0:42:07Why was it such a tragedy?
0:42:07 > 0:42:10Because most of the people on the ship ended up not surviving.
0:42:10 > 0:42:13If you can imagine that today is quite a nice day
0:42:13 > 0:42:15and still you've got waves blowing in.
0:42:15 > 0:42:19Take that up to a hurricane wind, 100mph,
0:42:19 > 0:42:22the waves would be enormous.
0:42:22 > 0:42:25We would be getting drenched where we're standing now.
0:42:25 > 0:42:27And so anybody going into the water
0:42:27 > 0:42:30would just be smashed against the rocks and lost.
0:42:30 > 0:42:32ANGUISHED CRIES
0:42:39 > 0:42:41The wrecking of the Royal Charter
0:42:41 > 0:42:45was traumatic for the victims, survivors and rescuers.
0:42:48 > 0:42:53A Maltese sailor named Joseph Rogers was hailed the hero of the night.
0:42:53 > 0:42:56He managed to get a line from the ship to the shore,
0:42:56 > 0:42:58saving 21 people.
0:43:00 > 0:43:02But 450 people died in the wreck.
0:43:05 > 0:43:08And some of them are buried here in the local churchyard.
0:43:11 > 0:43:16The Royal Charter was a new, modern, iron-hulled ship.
0:43:16 > 0:43:19On board were ordinary people, not seasoned sailors.
0:43:21 > 0:43:24With so many dead, it was not surprising
0:43:24 > 0:43:27that there was enormous public interest in the tragedy.
0:43:29 > 0:43:32The wrecking also captured the imagination
0:43:32 > 0:43:35of author and journalist Charles Dickens.
0:43:36 > 0:43:40Two months after the disaster, he visited the wreck site.
0:43:41 > 0:43:44The salvage work was still ongoing
0:43:44 > 0:43:46and he gave an account of what he saw.
0:43:49 > 0:43:52"Cast up among the stones and boulders of the beach
0:43:52 > 0:43:55"were great spars of the lost vessel,
0:43:55 > 0:43:59"and masses of iron twisted by the fury of the sea
0:43:59 > 0:44:01"into the strangest forms.
0:44:02 > 0:44:05"The timber was already bleached and iron rusted,
0:44:05 > 0:44:08"and even these objects did no violence
0:44:08 > 0:44:11"to the prevailing air the whole scene wore,
0:44:11 > 0:44:15"of having been exactly the same for years and years."
0:44:23 > 0:44:26The Royal Charter wasn't the only victim of the storm.
0:44:28 > 0:44:31Further south, in Pembrokeshire, St Brynach's Church
0:44:31 > 0:44:34was almost completely destroyed by the force of the wind.
0:44:38 > 0:44:41Just one wall still stands.
0:44:41 > 0:44:45Elsewhere, according to Board of Trade records,
0:44:45 > 0:44:49a total of 133 ships were lost,
0:44:49 > 0:44:52with a further 90 severely damaged.
0:44:52 > 0:44:57During the storm, 800 people lost their lives.
0:44:59 > 0:45:01There's a permanent memorial
0:45:01 > 0:45:03to the victims of the wrecking of the Royal Charter
0:45:03 > 0:45:07on the hillside overlooking the wreck site.
0:45:07 > 0:45:10It's a constant reminder of the loss of life.
0:45:10 > 0:45:13But perhaps the best memorial to that terrible event
0:45:13 > 0:45:15is what happened next.
0:45:16 > 0:45:19The wrecking of the Royal Charter shocked FitzRoy.
0:45:19 > 0:45:21He became convinced that it should have been possible
0:45:21 > 0:45:24to predict the storm and to prevent the tragedy.
0:45:24 > 0:45:26So he began working flat-out
0:45:26 > 0:45:29on a system of early warnings of storms for shipping.
0:45:29 > 0:45:31Within just a few weeks,
0:45:31 > 0:45:34as Charles Dickens was clambering over these rocks at the wreck site,
0:45:34 > 0:45:38FitzRoy presented his early findings to the Royal Society.
0:45:40 > 0:45:41Back at the Met Office,
0:45:41 > 0:45:44Catherine has one of the original charts of the storm
0:45:44 > 0:45:48that FitzRoy produced for his report.
0:45:48 > 0:45:51It shows a clear path of destruction.
0:45:51 > 0:45:54- ..our chart from the Royal Charter storm.- Oh, wow.
0:45:54 > 0:45:57So this is a synoptic chart, another term coined by FitzRoy,
0:45:57 > 0:46:02and it's showing us the conditions actually on 26th October.
0:46:02 > 0:46:05It's showing us various different observations
0:46:05 > 0:46:07all over the country at that time.
0:46:07 > 0:46:08And what do these lines
0:46:08 > 0:46:11and these different boxes and diagrams mean?
0:46:11 > 0:46:14The length of the line in this case shows the strength of the wind.
0:46:14 > 0:46:17We can see rain and cloud, different weather conditions,
0:46:17 > 0:46:19temperature, pressure.
0:46:19 > 0:46:20We can see from the chart
0:46:20 > 0:46:23that it was extremely windy in the Irish Sea.
0:46:23 > 0:46:27And here off the coast of Anglesey, which was where she sank,
0:46:27 > 0:46:29you can see a particularly long line,
0:46:29 > 0:46:31which indicates a very strong gust speed.
0:46:35 > 0:46:38FitzRoy's charts show that the storm moved northwards
0:46:38 > 0:46:42from southern Ireland, across to North Wales and beyond.
0:46:48 > 0:46:52The data FitzRoy collected from his network of observers
0:46:52 > 0:46:54is still in use today.
0:46:54 > 0:46:56Climate scientists at the Met Office have used it
0:46:56 > 0:47:00in a global project to create, using supercomputers,
0:47:00 > 0:47:06an accurate reconstruction of the last 200 years of world weather.
0:47:06 > 0:47:09It's hoped that by examining patterns in the weather,
0:47:09 > 0:47:13better models for more accurate forecasts can be created.
0:47:16 > 0:47:19But this also means Met Office mathematician Philip Brohan
0:47:19 > 0:47:22can show us the progress of the storm
0:47:22 > 0:47:24that wrecked the Royal Charter.
0:47:25 > 0:47:27This is a reconstruction
0:47:27 > 0:47:30for the few days surrounding the storm of 1859.
0:47:30 > 0:47:32What I'm showing here are the surface pressure fields.
0:47:32 > 0:47:35Those are shown by the black contour lines on this particular map.
0:47:35 > 0:47:38The wind, those are shown by the little moving arrows.
0:47:38 > 0:47:40And the temperature.
0:47:40 > 0:47:44And we can run this forward through the period of the storm.
0:47:44 > 0:47:46And what you will actually see
0:47:46 > 0:47:49is this particular low-pressure system...
0:47:49 > 0:47:52intensifies and deepens and moves northwards.
0:47:52 > 0:47:54That's actually the Royal Charter storm,
0:47:54 > 0:47:57and you can see the winds blowing in from the west
0:47:57 > 0:47:59that cause such trouble for the ship itself over Anglesey.
0:47:59 > 0:48:02It's hard to look back with modern eyes at FitzRoy
0:48:02 > 0:48:03and not see it as visionary,
0:48:03 > 0:48:06because it is essentially what we do in the present day.
0:48:06 > 0:48:08He was obviously limited by the technology he had,
0:48:08 > 0:48:11by the number of observations that he had available.
0:48:11 > 0:48:13But the principle is sound, OK?
0:48:13 > 0:48:16And it's one of the things that makes it quite interesting
0:48:16 > 0:48:19to take modern technology, with his observing network,
0:48:19 > 0:48:21and actually go back and say, OK, you know,
0:48:21 > 0:48:25how do these new detailed reconstructions compare
0:48:25 > 0:48:27with what he thought was going on?
0:48:29 > 0:48:33If satellites had been invented in 1859,
0:48:33 > 0:48:36they'd have captured an image similar to this.
0:48:36 > 0:48:41It's very close to what we see in the new weather map of the storm.
0:48:41 > 0:48:44FitzRoy's investigations of the Royal Charter storm
0:48:44 > 0:48:47convinced him he had the final piece of the puzzle.
0:48:47 > 0:48:51He made a monumental decision and announced to his bosses
0:48:51 > 0:48:56that he could do more than just report and plan for bad weather.
0:48:56 > 0:48:58He could predict its arrival.
0:48:58 > 0:49:02In doing so, FitzRoy would provide the first forecast
0:49:02 > 0:49:04in the form of a storm warning.
0:49:05 > 0:49:06Six months after the storm,
0:49:06 > 0:49:10FitzRoy was given permission to build an early warning system.
0:49:10 > 0:49:13He decided to use the telegraph to collect weather data
0:49:13 > 0:49:16from 13 sites around the coasts of Britain and Ireland.
0:49:16 > 0:49:19At each site, he installed meteorological equipment
0:49:19 > 0:49:21and sent detailed instructions
0:49:21 > 0:49:25on what information they had to collect and report back.
0:49:27 > 0:49:29TELEPHONE RINGS
0:49:29 > 0:49:31- WOMAN:- American service.
0:49:31 > 0:49:32Overseas...
0:49:34 > 0:49:37At the BT archive in central London,
0:49:37 > 0:49:40some of FitzRoy's earliest surviving records
0:49:40 > 0:49:44of the setting up of his telegraph network have been rediscovered.
0:49:47 > 0:49:52Sarah Dry is one of the first historians to see them.
0:49:52 > 0:49:57Well, this is great - this is a map of the telegraph system in 1860,
0:49:57 > 0:49:59right about the time that FitzRoy
0:49:59 > 0:50:01is establishing his storm warning network.
0:50:01 > 0:50:05And we can see this wonderful network of the telegraph system.
0:50:05 > 0:50:07And we can look up and see Aberdeen,
0:50:07 > 0:50:10which was one of the original stations.
0:50:10 > 0:50:13Berwick. Coming down... Great Yarmouth is on here.
0:50:13 > 0:50:15All the way down to Penzance.
0:50:15 > 0:50:17This is a wonderful image
0:50:17 > 0:50:20of the technology that's knitting the country together.
0:50:21 > 0:50:24The telegraph network was well established
0:50:24 > 0:50:28by the time FitzRoy decided to use it for his storm warnings.
0:50:28 > 0:50:32And he was very specific about how he intended the system to work.
0:50:34 > 0:50:38Very soon after the wreck of the Royal Charter,
0:50:38 > 0:50:41it's August of the following year,
0:50:41 > 0:50:45and he's already got a plan and he's implementing it.
0:50:45 > 0:50:49"The plan now proposed is simple, and the machinery is ready.
0:50:49 > 0:50:53"Once a day, at about 9am, barometer and thermometer heights,
0:50:53 > 0:50:56"state of the weather, and direction of wind,
0:50:56 > 0:50:57"will be telegraphed to London
0:50:57 > 0:51:01"from the most distant ends of our longest wires."
0:51:01 > 0:51:02That's great.
0:51:05 > 0:51:07This is quite interesting,
0:51:07 > 0:51:09because here we have a letter in FitzRoy's own hand,
0:51:09 > 0:51:12and he refers to this scrap of paper, and on the scrap -
0:51:12 > 0:51:15and you can see it's actually torn, it literally is a scrap -
0:51:15 > 0:51:17there's a note made probably by...
0:51:17 > 0:51:19Well, there's several notes. One of them says,
0:51:19 > 0:51:22"All of the magnetic telegrams were late again this morning
0:51:22 > 0:51:25"and not received till 10.27am."
0:51:25 > 0:51:28And then we have a note in FitzRoy's hand saying, "How today?"
0:51:28 > 0:51:30He's following up the next day.
0:51:30 > 0:51:34It shows you just how time sensitive this information was.
0:51:34 > 0:51:36I think he expected them at 10am.
0:51:36 > 0:51:3910.27 was not OK.
0:51:39 > 0:51:43Throughout his career, FitzRoy was used to being in charge.
0:51:43 > 0:51:45He wasn't answerable to anyone.
0:51:45 > 0:51:49When he began putting his storm warning network together,
0:51:49 > 0:51:51he took the same approach
0:51:51 > 0:51:54and supervised every aspect of the process.
0:51:54 > 0:51:56So, every morning, FitzRoy arrives at the office
0:51:56 > 0:52:00ready to receive observations from these coastal stations.
0:52:00 > 0:52:03He then spent about half an hour digesting that material,
0:52:03 > 0:52:06and he did that more or less inside of his head.
0:52:06 > 0:52:08The metaphor that was used later
0:52:08 > 0:52:11was almost like a chess player considering his moves.
0:52:11 > 0:52:15FitzRoy sometimes described it as a physician diagnosing the weather.
0:52:15 > 0:52:17Both of those things give you a sense of the element
0:52:17 > 0:52:20of personal judgment that came into it
0:52:20 > 0:52:21and the lack of formal equations.
0:52:21 > 0:52:23Then very quickly, as a result,
0:52:23 > 0:52:26FitzRoy's able to send out, when necessary,
0:52:26 > 0:52:30storm warnings to coastal stations that may be in danger.
0:52:34 > 0:52:39FitzRoy's first storm warning was sent in February 1861.
0:52:39 > 0:52:42His data allowed him to predict what weather was coming,
0:52:42 > 0:52:46how quickly it was approaching, and from which direction.
0:52:47 > 0:52:51Once the information was telegraphed back to the locations in danger,
0:52:51 > 0:52:55a system of drums and cone shapes made from canvas
0:52:55 > 0:52:57would be erected in the ports.
0:52:58 > 0:53:03An upward-pointing cone would indicate a gale from the north.
0:53:03 > 0:53:06Different combinations of these cones, with drums,
0:53:06 > 0:53:10would indicate which direction the winds were expected from first.
0:53:14 > 0:53:18The storm warnings were a success and lives were saved.
0:53:19 > 0:53:21But FitzRoy had further ambition -
0:53:21 > 0:53:23to predict the weather for the public.
0:53:25 > 0:53:27He persuaded the editor of the Times
0:53:27 > 0:53:30that it should publish what he termed a forecast,
0:53:30 > 0:53:32a word he had invented.
0:53:34 > 0:53:36FitzRoy's first public weather forecast
0:53:36 > 0:53:40was actually published in the Times on 1st August 1861.
0:53:40 > 0:53:42And we have that newspaper here.
0:53:42 > 0:53:46It's actually hidden right here on the second to last page
0:53:46 > 0:53:48in the midst of a whole load of adverts.
0:53:48 > 0:53:51Actually, his forecast is just these three lines down here.
0:53:51 > 0:53:54So you've got all this data about the weather conditions
0:53:54 > 0:53:55at different parts of the country,
0:53:55 > 0:53:58and then the forecast part is just here,
0:53:58 > 0:54:00- just those little bits there at the end.- Yes.
0:54:00 > 0:54:03FitzRoy didn't have permission to do this by the Government.
0:54:03 > 0:54:05He just decided that people were interested
0:54:05 > 0:54:07and he felt he could do it.
0:54:07 > 0:54:10So this is really the first public weather forecast
0:54:10 > 0:54:12produced by the Met Office.
0:54:12 > 0:54:14And, as you can see, it says,
0:54:14 > 0:54:16"North - moderate westerly wind: fine.
0:54:16 > 0:54:20"West - moderate south-westerly wind: fine.
0:54:20 > 0:54:22"South - fresh westerly: fine."
0:54:22 > 0:54:24He didn't actually include the east on the first day.
0:54:24 > 0:54:27- But it was going to be nice weather the next day.- Yes.
0:54:27 > 0:54:29And, actually, he wasn't far off.
0:54:29 > 0:54:33The forecasts were popular and captured the public's imagination.
0:54:33 > 0:54:37But with them came something that's lasted to this day -
0:54:37 > 0:54:40public complaints about the accuracy of weather forecasts.
0:54:42 > 0:54:45This cartoon in the magazine Punch
0:54:45 > 0:54:48lampooned FitzRoy's storm warning signals,
0:54:48 > 0:54:51but commonly, the criticism was much more direct,
0:54:51 > 0:54:54such as this letter of December 1863.
0:54:56 > 0:54:58"When Admiral FitzRoy closely follows
0:54:58 > 0:55:01"the forecasts of the barometer he is often right,
0:55:01 > 0:55:03"but more commonly wrong
0:55:03 > 0:55:06"when he attempts to anticipate its warnings by guesses,
0:55:06 > 0:55:08"for they are nothing more..."
0:55:10 > 0:55:13The forecasts are failing as a bit of meteorological science
0:55:13 > 0:55:15because they're not reliable.
0:55:15 > 0:55:18As a bit of practical weather wisdom,
0:55:18 > 0:55:20they could be seen as quite helpful,
0:55:20 > 0:55:23and certainly harmless enough if they're wrong.
0:55:25 > 0:55:26Practical weather wisdom
0:55:26 > 0:55:29was the last thing the Royal Society's men of science
0:55:29 > 0:55:31wanted printed in the newspapers.
0:55:32 > 0:55:35FitzRoy was being ridiculed in the press
0:55:35 > 0:55:38and they didn't want the Met Office to take responsibility
0:55:38 > 0:55:40for the impact of the weather.
0:55:40 > 0:55:44They began to question the science behind the forecasts.
0:55:44 > 0:55:47But then something happened which no-one could have predicted.
0:55:49 > 0:55:52He's coming under increasing scrutiny.
0:55:52 > 0:55:54Eyewitness reports, friends at the time,
0:55:54 > 0:55:57report that he's looking increasingly aged, tired,
0:55:57 > 0:55:59his hearing is going.
0:55:59 > 0:56:04And then in 1865, somewhat inexplicably,
0:56:04 > 0:56:09FitzRoy commits suicide by slitting his throat one morning at his home.
0:56:09 > 0:56:14And this throws not only his family's life into disarray,
0:56:14 > 0:56:17but the existence of the forecasting network.
0:56:21 > 0:56:26Robert FitzRoy died on 30th April 1865.
0:56:26 > 0:56:29He was just 59 years old.
0:56:30 > 0:56:33No-one knows why Robert FitzRoy killed himself,
0:56:33 > 0:56:35though there are some theories.
0:56:35 > 0:56:37He was a very religious man
0:56:37 > 0:56:40and he couldn't quite reconcile his beliefs
0:56:40 > 0:56:42with the ideas around revolution
0:56:42 > 0:56:46that his friend Charles Darwin was developing at the time.
0:56:46 > 0:56:48He'd also spent a lot of money on projects
0:56:48 > 0:56:53such as distributing barometers, money that he never got back.
0:56:53 > 0:56:57By the time FitzRoy died, he was a penniless man.
0:57:02 > 0:57:06In Anglesey, the memorial to the wrecking of the Royal Charter
0:57:06 > 0:57:11doesn't just mark the tragedy that cost so many lives that night.
0:57:12 > 0:57:16It also marks the worldwide drive for forecasting the weather.
0:57:18 > 0:57:21That owes much to Robert FitzRoy,
0:57:21 > 0:57:23but he wouldn't have been able to make it happen
0:57:23 > 0:57:27without the work of people like James Glaisher and Francis Beaufort.
0:57:29 > 0:57:32They showed that weather wasn't supernatural,
0:57:32 > 0:57:34it could be studied scientifically,
0:57:34 > 0:57:37just like any other aspect of the natural world.
0:57:39 > 0:57:40And if it could be studied,
0:57:40 > 0:57:44if its guiding principles could be uncovered,
0:57:44 > 0:57:46its behaviour could be predicted.
0:57:48 > 0:57:52Though reliable weather forecasting was still many years away,
0:57:52 > 0:57:55the idea it could be done was born.
0:57:56 > 0:58:01Meteorology had turned from superstition into science,
0:58:01 > 0:58:06and the weather forecast became an inescapable part of all our lives.
0:58:10 > 0:58:12Next week...
0:58:13 > 0:58:18How forecasters went to war to crack the secrets of the skies.
0:58:18 > 0:58:20And how the success of D-Day
0:58:20 > 0:58:24hinged on the single most important weather prediction in history.