0:00:00 > 0:00:02That's all for now. I will be back with the latest on those stories at
0:00:02 > 0:00:04two o'clock.
0:00:04 > 0:00:06Now on BBC News, one of our programme highlights
0:00:06 > 0:00:07from the past 12 months.
0:00:07 > 0:00:10Africa is in the midst of a baby boom.
0:00:10 > 0:00:12The median age across the continent is just 19.
0:00:12 > 0:00:14In September, Alastair Leithead investigated the potential positives
0:00:14 > 0:00:16of this demographic dividend, and the possible pitfalls,
0:00:16 > 0:00:21in Africa's Population Explosion.
0:00:22 > 0:00:27The population of Africa is set to double by the year 2050.
0:00:28 > 0:00:32To 2.5 billion people.
0:00:40 > 0:00:50The young are moving from the countryside to the towns.
0:00:52 > 0:00:54Unfortunately for us, in the last two, three
0:00:54 > 0:01:00years it's been a deluge.
0:01:00 > 0:01:05But many end up in slums and cities are struggling to cope.
0:01:11 > 0:01:13An industrial revolution could transform African countries
0:01:13 > 0:01:17and lift millions out of poverty.
0:01:17 > 0:01:19Every year it grows, 20 million jobs per year
0:01:19 > 0:01:25over the coming decades.
0:01:26 > 0:01:28But idle youth could mean millions more migrants
0:01:28 > 0:01:30and drive many into the hands of Islamist extremists.
0:01:30 > 0:01:37And that is everyone's problem.
0:01:49 > 0:01:53There is nowhere in the world where women have more children.
0:01:54 > 0:01:59Half the girls here are married by 15.
0:02:00 > 0:02:04So it isn't surprising that children have children.
0:02:09 > 0:02:12This is Zinder, on the fringe of the Sahara desert, not far
0:02:12 > 0:02:14from Nigeria's northern border.
0:02:16 > 0:02:17Niger is one of the world's poorest countries.
0:02:18 > 0:02:25It is mostly agricultural.
0:02:25 > 0:02:28The average number of children born per woman is 7.6.
0:02:28 > 0:02:32And Zinder it is even higher than that, so the government and aid
0:02:32 > 0:02:34agencies are trying to do something about it.
0:02:44 > 0:02:47Tucked away, out of earshot, girls as young as ten talk
0:02:47 > 0:02:51about topics many adults here consider taboo.
0:02:55 > 0:02:58Family planning, contraception, early marriage, and
0:02:58 > 0:03:02even forced marriage.
0:03:04 > 0:03:07Three older girls take the lead.
0:03:07 > 0:03:10The aid workers who have trained them call this the safe space class.
0:03:14 > 0:03:18Saratou is 27 and has four children.
0:03:21 > 0:03:24TRANSLATION:One of the things we are teaching the girls
0:03:24 > 0:03:26here is about early marriage and the consequences of having
0:03:26 > 0:03:29children before they are 18.
0:03:29 > 0:03:31During the delivery a girl can lose her life,
0:03:31 > 0:03:38or the child could die.
0:03:38 > 0:03:40Before this programme, women had many, many kids,
0:03:40 > 0:03:42but with the coming of this programme the number
0:03:42 > 0:03:46of children is really reducing.
0:03:46 > 0:03:51Who decides how many children you should have?
0:03:51 > 0:03:57TRANSLATION:My husband, he decides that.
0:03:57 > 0:04:00And that's the crux of it, the husbands decide.
0:04:05 > 0:04:08And so they started a husbands school.
0:04:12 > 0:04:15TRANSLATION:If you give your daughter away at 12 it
0:04:15 > 0:04:16could be a disaster.
0:04:16 > 0:04:20The conversation is just as open on this side of the village.
0:04:20 > 0:04:22TRANSLATION:Having fewer children helps the woman to be able
0:04:22 > 0:04:26to breast-feed properly.
0:04:26 > 0:04:29TRANSLATION:Before we learned from this programme many of our kids
0:04:29 > 0:04:33were not healthy, but now we don't have a problem.
0:04:33 > 0:04:35This is Mudaha Musa.
0:04:35 > 0:04:38He's 27 and he is one of the more enthusiastic converts
0:04:38 > 0:04:44to the fewer kids philosophy.
0:04:44 > 0:04:49He and his wife have three children.
0:04:49 > 0:04:51TRANSLATION:I come from a big family.
0:04:51 > 0:04:53My father has three wives.
0:04:53 > 0:04:56I have about 16 siblings.
0:04:56 > 0:05:01I'm not sure how many we are, but I think we are 16.
0:05:01 > 0:05:04The idea that more children means more hands to help on the farm
0:05:04 > 0:05:10doesn't ring true with him any more.
0:05:12 > 0:05:14TRANSLATION:No, if someone has ten children, only three,
0:05:14 > 0:05:16four of them are healthy, so it's better to have
0:05:16 > 0:05:22four, that is better for work in the field.
0:05:23 > 0:05:28Truly, there is a problem here with having too many children.
0:05:28 > 0:05:31But now we have been to husband school we know more.
0:05:31 > 0:05:33We can have a child, and wait for a while before
0:05:33 > 0:05:36having the next one.
0:05:36 > 0:05:38Even if some people do change their minds and decide
0:05:38 > 0:05:41to have fewer babies, the dramatic growth in population
0:05:41 > 0:05:45will take a long time to slow down.
0:05:45 > 0:05:48By 2050 the number of people in Niger will be way over triple
0:05:48 > 0:05:49the 21 million here today.
0:05:49 > 0:05:51The culture here is to have many, many children.
0:05:51 > 0:05:56Traditions are hard to shift.
0:05:57 > 0:06:00But this is the way to do it.
0:06:00 > 0:06:03Show them what the options are at a mobile clinic.
0:06:03 > 0:06:08Another case of tackling taboos head on.
0:06:12 > 0:06:16And from the crowd, Nana Aisha decides to have a three-year
0:06:16 > 0:06:18contraception implant in front of everyone, saying
0:06:18 > 0:06:22she has had three kids and she is happy with that for now.
0:06:22 > 0:06:24TRANSLATION:I decided to do it in front of everybody
0:06:25 > 0:06:29so they can see how it is done.
0:06:29 > 0:06:32Because before there were rumours that while doing it it hurts.
0:06:32 > 0:06:37And they see themselves today that it does not hurt at all.
0:06:37 > 0:06:39And it did persuade a few sceptics.
0:06:39 > 0:06:41This woman said her husband had given her permission,
0:06:41 > 0:06:49in fact it was his idea, he is educated, she told me,
0:06:49 > 0:06:52and he heard the men talking about it in husbands school.
0:06:52 > 0:06:54They are small steps towards bringing the birth rate down.
0:06:54 > 0:06:58This population explosion matters.
0:06:58 > 0:07:00Across Africa, but more so in Niger, all of these young people
0:07:00 > 0:07:03are a bonus if a country is on the rise but can
0:07:03 > 0:07:07also be a burden.
0:07:08 > 0:07:10TRANSLATION:The immediate consequences of having such a high
0:07:10 > 0:07:14birth rate is that it is impossible to feed, educate, and care for all
0:07:14 > 0:07:18of these children in the short term.
0:07:18 > 0:07:20In the long-term the very survival of the country is threatened
0:07:20 > 0:07:23unless we take this window of opportunity to make the most
0:07:23 > 0:07:28of this youth dividend.
0:07:28 > 0:07:30It could threaten the survival of the country and encourage
0:07:30 > 0:07:36different things like terrorism and immigration.
0:07:37 > 0:07:39There are few jobs in the countryside.
0:07:39 > 0:07:41On both sides of this border between northern Nigeria and Niger,
0:07:41 > 0:07:50Boko Haram recruit idle youth.
0:07:50 > 0:07:53Those who can head to the big urban areas.
0:07:53 > 0:07:55From here we followed one man who has left
0:07:55 > 0:07:58to make it big in Lagos.
0:07:58 > 0:08:03It is a well-trodden route from this quiet rural village to the city.
0:08:06 > 0:08:08His family are talking about the son and brother,
0:08:08 > 0:08:10the husband and father, who left his wife and
0:08:10 > 0:08:14one-year-old boy behind.
0:08:14 > 0:08:17TRANSLATION:We don't have money to eat, so we had to send
0:08:17 > 0:08:20the boy to look for money.
0:08:20 > 0:08:22He sends around $100 every now and again
0:08:22 > 0:08:26which they use for the farm, food, and clothes.
0:08:28 > 0:08:31It is quite a contrast, moving from a village of 7000 people
0:08:31 > 0:08:35to Africa's largest city.
0:08:37 > 0:08:40This was not quite what Muktar had in mind, but optimism
0:08:40 > 0:08:46is emblazoned across his chest.
0:08:47 > 0:08:50TRANSLATION:I don't have it easy.
0:08:50 > 0:08:53But I realised how much hard it was to get work.
0:08:53 > 0:08:57But you can't just sit here without a job.
0:08:57 > 0:09:00I wanted to buy and sell, to have a shop, and to make enough
0:09:00 > 0:09:03money to go back to school to get the rest of my education.
0:09:10 > 0:09:13Every day thousands of people arrive in Lagos, Africa's largest city,
0:09:13 > 0:09:15looking for the same thing, a new start in life.
0:09:15 > 0:09:19Many end up in the slums, struggling to make a living.
0:09:19 > 0:09:22Lagos has always had mixed blessings of having to deal
0:09:22 > 0:09:29with the influx of people.
0:09:29 > 0:09:31Unfortunately for us, in the last two, three years,
0:09:31 > 0:09:34it has been a deluge.
0:09:34 > 0:09:36We want the people to be here to bring ideas,
0:09:36 > 0:09:39values and innovation.
0:09:39 > 0:09:43But we are just unable to deal with it.
0:09:43 > 0:09:46This is what an African mega city looks like.
0:09:46 > 0:09:50It is crowded, chaotic, and crumbling.
0:09:50 > 0:09:52Lagos is already struggling to house, to look after,
0:09:52 > 0:09:54and to educate the way over 21 million people
0:09:55 > 0:09:57already living here.
0:09:57 > 0:10:00Let alone the millions more predicted to crush into the city.
0:10:00 > 0:10:04There is an incredible energy about the place.
0:10:04 > 0:10:07It is about tapping that and using creative thinking to turn
0:10:07 > 0:10:12it into an opportunity.
0:10:16 > 0:10:22The festival celebrates old Lagos.
0:10:22 > 0:10:27Masquerades represent the spirits of the dead,
0:10:27 > 0:10:33returned to cleanse the city of evil and pray for peace and prosperity.
0:10:35 > 0:10:37Emerging from the rusted tin roofs is one answer
0:10:37 > 0:10:41to the prayers, building up.
0:10:41 > 0:10:44Lagos has no choice but to go up.
0:10:44 > 0:10:47How are we going to accommodate all of the population?
0:10:47 > 0:10:57We have to go up.
0:10:57 > 0:11:00Lateef Shobelo has spent 25 years as an urban planner in Los Angeles.
0:11:01 > 0:11:02Now he has brought his skills home.
0:11:02 > 0:11:05Now that we are able to go vertically, we are able
0:11:05 > 0:11:12to reduce overcrowding.
0:11:12 > 0:11:15It gives the advantage of the air space, which has been lost.
0:11:15 > 0:11:18Tower blocks are not a new idea and they are expensive,
0:11:18 > 0:11:20but Lagos needs to renew without moving people out.
0:11:20 > 0:11:22One answer is creative financing, to lure private investment
0:11:22 > 0:11:28into affordable housing.
0:11:28 > 0:11:31Currently we are looking at different areas we can come up
0:11:31 > 0:11:34with to introduce some of the ideas that I have brought
0:11:34 > 0:11:42from Los Angeles and see which ones are applicable and usable here.
0:11:42 > 0:11:44This is the other way to deal with slums.
0:11:44 > 0:11:47This community was cleared in March, despite a court order protecting it.
0:11:47 > 0:11:57Many people fear they will be next.
0:11:57 > 0:12:00A lot of communities will be under threat of eviction.
0:12:00 > 0:12:02About 1000 people will be rendered homeless if this
0:12:02 > 0:12:09action is carried out.
0:12:09 > 0:12:12If you demolish a slum, two or three will spring
0:12:12 > 0:12:19up because people need somewhere to sleep.
0:12:19 > 0:12:21There two main industries in the slums, fishing
0:12:21 > 0:12:24and dredging for building sand.
0:12:24 > 0:12:26But the beach is quiet.
0:12:26 > 0:12:31The people say the security forces came and smashed up the boats.
0:12:31 > 0:12:32TRANSLATION:I am very angry.
0:12:32 > 0:12:34They destroyed my boat and my husband's boats.
0:12:34 > 0:12:41We have no money.
0:12:41 > 0:12:48We have had to withdraw the children from school.
0:12:48 > 0:12:50The State government cites security reasons, and says people
0:12:50 > 0:12:52are never forcibly removed, but people here think it
0:12:52 > 0:12:54just wants them out.
0:12:54 > 0:12:56All of these communities were demolished so that the rich
0:12:57 > 0:13:01would benefit from it.
0:13:01 > 0:13:03So, I feel strongly that the state government is interested
0:13:03 > 0:13:06in the land, but we are not going to give in.
0:13:06 > 0:13:07The basic reason is land grabbing.
0:13:07 > 0:13:09The Lagos government know that the waterfront
0:13:09 > 0:13:19community is prime land.
0:13:20 > 0:13:25There are big plans for waterfront living.
0:13:25 > 0:13:28A vast area as been claimed for a Manhattan style development.
0:13:28 > 0:13:31And there are other building projects.
0:13:31 > 0:13:33We are on the east end of the site.
0:13:33 > 0:13:37Between here and there, we have the Hotel...
0:13:37 > 0:13:43Paul Onwuanibe is developing a $100 million site.
0:13:43 > 0:13:48Lagos has to balance a modern vision against its growing inequality.
0:13:48 > 0:13:50There will always remain the super-rich and the people just
0:13:50 > 0:13:53below the poverty line.
0:13:53 > 0:13:57The hope is that over the next few years you will see that gap bridged
0:13:57 > 0:14:07as more people get jobs.
0:14:11 > 0:14:13The only way to manage a massively growing mega-city
0:14:13 > 0:14:15is to invest in infrastructure, whether it be power
0:14:15 > 0:14:16lines, or rail lines.
0:14:16 > 0:14:18This will be Nigeria's first-ever electrical light railway system.
0:14:18 > 0:14:21Within ten years they want six of these lines crisscrossing
0:14:21 > 0:14:22the state, keeping Lagos on the move.
0:14:22 > 0:14:24But the city is outgrowing efforts to house, employ,
0:14:25 > 0:14:27and serve its people.
0:14:27 > 0:14:29We are in an urban age.
0:14:29 > 0:14:30People are going to keep coming.
0:14:30 > 0:14:38We have to find more creative ways to accommodate more people.
0:14:43 > 0:14:45Climate change, drought, and a doubling population
0:14:45 > 0:14:50are already testing the continent's capacity to feed itself.
0:14:50 > 0:14:56And by 2050 a quarter of the world will be Africans.
0:15:01 > 0:15:02Farming needs to be much more productive.
0:15:02 > 0:15:08Kenya is at the forefront of a big, international effort to create
0:15:08 > 0:15:11better plants that produce more crops in the harshest conditions.
0:15:11 > 0:15:12Smallholder farmers here could easily produce
0:15:12 > 0:15:16four times as much food.
0:15:16 > 0:15:22Sammy Nduvi is one of the guinea pigs.
0:15:22 > 0:15:25He has replaced most of his maize with a mixture of what are thought
0:15:25 > 0:15:27of as old-fashioned crops like millet and peas, which put
0:15:27 > 0:15:29nutrients back into the soil.
0:15:29 > 0:15:33TRANSLATION:these days we are getting less rain.
0:15:33 > 0:15:35When I plant these crops I know I will have something.
0:15:35 > 0:15:40Unlike with maize.
0:15:40 > 0:15:42Millet and peas normally resist the drought.
0:15:42 > 0:15:43He's also been given new and improved plants,
0:15:44 > 0:15:49hybrids he is very happy with.
0:15:49 > 0:15:51TRANSLATION:These peas are bigger, they mature faster, and they can get
0:15:51 > 0:15:54two crops in a year, rather than one.
0:15:54 > 0:15:57That is where the science comes in, finding the best strains means
0:15:57 > 0:15:59crossbreeding hundreds of plants to isolate the traits
0:15:59 > 0:16:05they are looking for.
0:16:05 > 0:16:07What we are doing is trying to combine traits, characteristics
0:16:07 > 0:16:12from different plants into one, so we end up with a superior plant
0:16:12 > 0:16:14that is early maturing, high yielding, drought tolerant,
0:16:14 > 0:16:17and resistant to many pests and diseases.
0:16:17 > 0:16:23But as well as being highly nutritious.
0:16:24 > 0:16:27And this new DNA profiling lab in Nairobi makes that
0:16:27 > 0:16:32process a lot quicker.
0:16:32 > 0:16:34This machine tries to understand the differences at DNA level
0:16:34 > 0:16:39in the populations of 101 crops.
0:16:39 > 0:16:44It isn't genetically modifying, but by sequencing varieties of 101
0:16:44 > 0:16:47carefully chosen traditional African food crops they can go
0:16:47 > 0:16:50straight in to find the best performing strains.
0:16:50 > 0:16:53We have a random selection.
0:16:53 > 0:16:57We go for selecting only those types which contain the signatures of high
0:16:57 > 0:17:01yield and for drought tolerance.
0:17:05 > 0:17:07Then nutritionists have to get people excited
0:17:07 > 0:17:08about these crops in a place
0:17:08 > 0:17:10where maize is everything.
0:17:10 > 0:17:14So to cooking school in rural Kenya.
0:17:14 > 0:17:16These smart foods used to be staples in Kenya.
0:17:16 > 0:17:24Before colonialism brought maize along.
0:17:26 > 0:17:28They are more drought resistant, more nutritious,
0:17:28 > 0:17:32and pretty easy to rustle up into all sorts of meals.
0:17:32 > 0:17:33A bit of chapati.
0:17:33 > 0:17:36Oh, I have two...
0:17:36 > 0:17:39And this is the pigeon pea stew.
0:17:39 > 0:17:45The little bit of everything.
0:17:45 > 0:17:49Very good.
0:17:49 > 0:17:52CHUCKLES.
0:17:55 > 0:17:57Four young farmers have been chosen to put their farming
0:17:57 > 0:17:59skills to the ultimate test...
0:17:59 > 0:18:04And the other thing is to persuade young people to stay on the farm.
0:18:04 > 0:18:10This reality TV show is Kenya's attempt to make farming cool.
0:18:10 > 0:18:12It is aimed particularly at millennials, otherwise leaving
0:18:12 > 0:18:17the village for the city.
0:18:17 > 0:18:20It shows that farming is a business, that money can be made.
0:18:20 > 0:18:28It also helps older farmers up their output.
0:18:28 > 0:18:30Making smallholding more productive and profitable is one step
0:18:30 > 0:18:36towards growing enough food.
0:18:36 > 0:18:39But for the demographic dividend to be cashed in, people need jobs.
0:18:39 > 0:18:41Agricultural revolution is the precursor to
0:18:41 > 0:18:43industrial revolution.
0:18:43 > 0:18:48Here in Ethiopia there's a grand plan.
0:18:48 > 0:18:50The first industrial park was built in Addis Ababa.
0:18:50 > 0:18:54But the biggest has just opened south of the capital.
0:18:58 > 0:19:03Ethiopia is flying high in Africa.
0:19:03 > 0:19:05It has the fastest-growing economy, albeit from a low base,
0:19:05 > 0:19:09and it has become the darling of international investors.
0:19:09 > 0:19:11The industrial park is a phenomenal project...
0:19:11 > 0:19:14The architect of this industrial revolution is meeting executives
0:19:14 > 0:19:15from some of the world's biggest textile companies.
0:19:16 > 0:19:22He built it and they came.
0:19:25 > 0:19:27Ethiopian workers already have jobs making the fabric,
0:19:27 > 0:19:31putting the garments together.
0:19:31 > 0:19:34She says the pay isn't great but it isn't just about money,
0:19:34 > 0:19:39but about building a better future for her and the country.
0:19:39 > 0:19:41The big solution to the population explosion in Ethiopian
0:19:41 > 0:19:44is putting its young people to work.
0:19:44 > 0:19:46They are building these vast industrial parks across the country,
0:19:46 > 0:19:48putting in infrastructure, training up a workforce,
0:19:48 > 0:19:50and attracting foreign companies to make their shirts,
0:19:50 > 0:19:58skirts, suits, and socks here rather than in Asia.
0:19:58 > 0:20:01As in much of Africa, China has a hand in the expansion and sees
0:20:02 > 0:20:05echoes of its own dramatic growth.
0:20:08 > 0:20:12TRANSLATION:Why did we choose Ethiopia?
0:20:12 > 0:20:15It has a stable political situation and a peaceful society.
0:20:15 > 0:20:17And it is the second biggest country in Africa.
0:20:17 > 0:20:25Without a big population there is no market.
0:20:26 > 0:20:29There is a huge amount of building going on across Ethiopia.
0:20:29 > 0:20:32The scale and ambition is impressive.
0:20:32 > 0:20:35Row after row of government built social housing.
0:20:35 > 0:20:38A new electric railway to whisk imports and exports
0:20:38 > 0:20:42between the capital and the coast.
0:20:42 > 0:20:44Perhaps the most visible sign of Ethiopia's economic
0:20:44 > 0:20:47growth is its airline.
0:20:47 > 0:20:50It has been dramatically expanding over the last ten years.
0:20:50 > 0:20:51It is government-owned.
0:20:51 > 0:20:53Ethiopian Airlines flies all over the world.
0:20:53 > 0:20:58What better advert for a country on the rise?
0:20:59 > 0:21:02We can learn from China that making investment in the long
0:21:02 > 0:21:03term in infrastructure is quite important.
0:21:03 > 0:21:12The population is growing by about 5%.
0:21:12 > 0:21:15We need to create close to 1 million jobs every year.
0:21:15 > 0:21:16This is a big challenge.
0:21:16 > 0:21:18Manufacturing has a significant impact in job creation.
0:21:18 > 0:21:20This provides an opportunity for what we call the
0:21:21 > 0:21:24demographic dividend.
0:21:24 > 0:21:26But without having a policy that is very ambitious
0:21:26 > 0:21:34and aggressive, it will be difficult and a source of crisis.
0:21:36 > 0:21:38Aggressive policies in Ethiopia mean a heavy hand.
0:21:38 > 0:21:41Protests were crushed.
0:21:41 > 0:21:43A state of emergency has just ended.
0:21:43 > 0:21:48There were questions about lack of freedoms and authoritarianism.
0:21:48 > 0:21:49Building democracies that are sustaining
0:21:49 > 0:21:51means a lot of effort.
0:21:51 > 0:21:52It needs many generations.
0:21:52 > 0:21:54We recognise that.
0:21:54 > 0:21:59We are going to put in a lot of effort despite the issues we have.
0:22:00 > 0:22:04Ethiopia has also built a lot of universities,
0:22:04 > 0:22:08focusing now on engineering and technology rather than arts.
0:22:08 > 0:22:09But what about the dilemma?
0:22:09 > 0:22:11What is more important, economic growth, or freedom
0:22:11 > 0:22:15of speech and democracy?
0:22:15 > 0:22:19It's not like one is more important than the other,
0:22:19 > 0:22:22but definitely economic growth is a means towards democracy.
0:22:22 > 0:22:25It is a path for our democracy, a path for freedom of speech.
0:22:25 > 0:22:28If there is no education in a country, and people
0:22:28 > 0:22:32are still hungry, what are they going to speak about?
0:22:34 > 0:22:41Industrialisation isn't the only answer to Africa's
0:22:41 > 0:22:43population explosion, but it's already creating dividends
0:22:43 > 0:22:47for Ethiopa's economy.
0:22:47 > 0:22:50If it gets the balance right, this could be a model to put
0:22:50 > 0:22:54a continent to work.
0:22:54 > 0:22:56In much of Africa, that's a big ask.
0:22:56 > 0:22:58In poor countries like Niger it seems the economy
0:22:58 > 0:23:00won't come close to keeping up with population growth.
0:23:00 > 0:23:03In rich ones like Nigeria it comes down to good
0:23:03 > 0:23:04thoughts and good actions.
0:23:04 > 0:23:06Even if the speed and scale of urban growth offers
0:23:06 > 0:23:12its own set of challenges.
0:23:12 > 0:23:14This African population explosion is coming,
0:23:14 > 0:23:15and its impact will be
0:23:15 > 0:23:18felt across the globe for good or for bad.