0:00:43 > 0:00:47This is Ilkley Moor, my childhood playground,
0:00:47 > 0:00:52and down there, the town where I was born and brought up.
0:00:53 > 0:00:57You know, when I was a nipper, I used to stand on these rocks here
0:00:57 > 0:01:02and look down over Wharfedale, and wonder how the dickens it came to be so beautiful.
0:01:05 > 0:01:09I'd no idea then that the answer was beneath me feet...
0:01:09 > 0:01:15that the landscape held clues which revealed an astonishing three-billion-year story.
0:01:18 > 0:01:22I could never have guessed that the place I was born
0:01:22 > 0:01:26was once submerged in a warm, tropical sea...
0:01:28 > 0:01:33..or that a hot and humid swamp had covered the whole of the Dales.
0:01:36 > 0:01:40And who would have thought that our rich, green countryside
0:01:40 > 0:01:42had been a baking desert...
0:01:44 > 0:01:48..before flipping to the other extreme - solid ice?
0:01:53 > 0:01:57Our country's history has been one of ever-changing climate,
0:01:57 > 0:02:02so extraordinary that it was beyond the wildest imaginings of my eight-year-old self.
0:02:02 > 0:02:07I'd no idea then about the fact that the British Isles had seen ice ages,
0:02:07 > 0:02:11tropical rainforests, coral seas and deserts.
0:02:11 > 0:02:14That was all long, long ago.
0:02:14 > 0:02:15But what of the future?
0:02:15 > 0:02:21Will it hold fire and tempest, or a big freeze, or global warming?
0:02:21 > 0:02:25Well, the simple answer is we just don't know.
0:02:25 > 0:02:31But one thing that is pretty certain is that Britain's future will be as surprising as its past.
0:02:41 > 0:02:47Predicting exactly what tomorrow will bring is a bit of a dark art.
0:02:47 > 0:02:49With no crystal ball or time machine,
0:02:49 > 0:02:51how can you look into the future?
0:02:52 > 0:02:57Well, I've discovered how the countryside holds clues to the past.
0:02:57 > 0:03:02But can it also hold clues to what's going to happen?
0:03:02 > 0:03:05Time to head to the Lake District.
0:03:08 > 0:03:12This is Ullswater, one of my favourite lakes,
0:03:12 > 0:03:15and like all of them, it's surrounded by powerful scenery.
0:03:15 > 0:03:20The scenery is evidence of the last dramatic climate change,
0:03:20 > 0:03:21the last ice age,
0:03:21 > 0:03:25when these fells were exposed and the lakes scoured out,
0:03:25 > 0:03:29when Britain was more like the Arctic.
0:03:29 > 0:03:34But the lakes also have clues to more recent climate changes,
0:03:34 > 0:03:36changes that are still happening today.
0:03:36 > 0:03:40And the evidence for them is just over there.
0:03:46 > 0:03:50These bashful flowers have a secret to tell.
0:03:50 > 0:03:53And they're no ordinary daffodils.
0:03:54 > 0:03:55For a start,
0:03:55 > 0:04:00they are our wild native daffodil, also known as the lent lily -
0:04:00 > 0:04:02a wonderful delicate flower,
0:04:02 > 0:04:05much more elegant than those big fat garden hybrids.
0:04:06 > 0:04:09And these particular daffs
0:04:09 > 0:04:11are also the most famous in the world -
0:04:11 > 0:04:14the inspiration for one of our greatest poets.
0:04:15 > 0:04:18"I wandered lonely as a cloud,
0:04:18 > 0:04:22"That floats on high o'er vales and hills
0:04:22 > 0:04:25"When all at once I saw a crowd,
0:04:25 > 0:04:28"A host, of golden daffodils."
0:04:28 > 0:04:33It was these daffodils beside this very lake that were fluttering
0:04:33 > 0:04:37and dancing in the breeze when Wordsworth stumbled upon them.
0:04:37 > 0:04:43But for me, what's really important is WHEN Wordsworth found these flowers
0:04:43 > 0:04:47and I know that, to the day, thanks to his sister's diary.
0:04:47 > 0:04:52On April 15th 1802, Dorothy Wordsworth wrote,
0:04:52 > 0:04:57"When we were in the woods beyond Gowbarrow Park..." Over there.
0:04:57 > 0:05:00"..we saw a few daffodils close to the water side.
0:05:00 > 0:05:04"We fancied that the lake had floated the seeds ashore."
0:05:06 > 0:05:09While the Wordsworths were here in the middle of April,
0:05:09 > 0:05:12200 years on, I'm here in the middle of March.
0:05:12 > 0:05:15These daffs are flowering one month earlier
0:05:15 > 0:05:17and they're not alone.
0:05:23 > 0:05:27Many of our spring flowers are springing up early
0:05:27 > 0:05:31and it's a hint of what the future might hold.
0:05:37 > 0:05:41You can see it happening in your own back yard.
0:05:41 > 0:05:46Everything just seems to flower sooner than it did when I first started gardening.
0:05:50 > 0:05:53Even our woodland bluebells are ringing the changes.
0:05:53 > 0:05:58When I was a kid, they flowered for my birthday, in early May,
0:05:58 > 0:06:00but these days it's mid-to-late April
0:06:00 > 0:06:04when this azure carpet rolls out over the forest floor.
0:06:11 > 0:06:13In fact, 200 species of wildflower
0:06:13 > 0:06:18are blooming two weeks EARLIER than they were in the 1950s.
0:06:18 > 0:06:20but this trend isn't restricted to flowers.
0:06:20 > 0:06:23Other spring events are happening earlier too.
0:06:26 > 0:06:28As the season shifts forward,
0:06:28 > 0:06:32trees are also bursting into life ahead of schedule.
0:06:37 > 0:06:40And it's not just spring that's on the move.
0:06:40 > 0:06:44At the other end, Keats' season of mists and mellow fruitfulness -
0:06:44 > 0:06:48autumn - seems to be arriving later.
0:06:53 > 0:06:57When I was growing up, I spent many an autumn day
0:06:57 > 0:07:00raking up leaves to stuff my home-made Guy Fawkes
0:07:00 > 0:07:03in preparation for November 5th.
0:07:03 > 0:07:06But these days kids use newspaper...
0:07:10 > 0:07:15..because, even on Bonfire Night, most leaves are still on the trees.
0:07:24 > 0:07:27It all points to one inescapable conclusion -
0:07:27 > 0:07:30Britain is getting hotter.
0:07:31 > 0:07:35And what will this mean for our wildlife?
0:07:35 > 0:07:40The timing of nature's events is a very fragile and delicate thing
0:07:40 > 0:07:44and even the slightest changes can have major knock-on effects,
0:07:44 > 0:07:48so with this gubbins in me wheelbarrow, here,
0:07:48 > 0:07:51I'm going to conduct an experiment.
0:07:52 > 0:07:54Does it really matter when spring arrives?
0:07:54 > 0:08:00Well, with a little help from some feathered friends, that's what I'm going to find out.
0:08:00 > 0:08:04I have here the most sophisticated nest box known to man...
0:08:04 > 0:08:06or bird.
0:08:06 > 0:08:11In here, the birds, I hope, and back there,
0:08:11 > 0:08:13a camera. I've even got lights.
0:08:13 > 0:08:16They'll have to be theatrical birds to nest in here.
0:08:16 > 0:08:22If I pan this camera to the left, you should see ME I hope, hoving into view.
0:08:22 > 0:08:27But I'll be watching the birds as they come in and out of the hole in the nest box.
0:08:27 > 0:08:32So all I need to do now is to put all this together again,
0:08:32 > 0:08:37get me hammer and nails and start to craft my Big Brother for birds.
0:08:40 > 0:08:45To let, one penthouse apartment, with cable TV.
0:08:48 > 0:08:52It's not long before the housemates move in - a pair of blue tits.
0:08:54 > 0:08:57And their task? To raise a family.
0:09:04 > 0:09:06Family planning for blue tits is a real challenge.
0:09:06 > 0:09:10Parents gamble on the best time to lay their eggs.
0:09:10 > 0:09:15It's vital that when they hatch, there's plenty of caterpillars to feed the chicks.
0:09:15 > 0:09:22And that means guessing when the fresh spring growth that feeds the caterpillars will first appear.
0:09:22 > 0:09:27The trouble is that as the onset of spring changes, many different birds are getting confused,
0:09:27 > 0:09:30getting their timings mixed up.
0:09:31 > 0:09:37Many chicks have starved and so there aren't as many of these beautiful birds around.
0:09:40 > 0:09:44This is just one example of a food chain being disrupted.
0:09:44 > 0:09:48Changes to nature's timing affect plants,
0:09:48 > 0:09:51the animals that eat them, and the animals that eat those animals.
0:09:51 > 0:09:55In a woodland like this, there are hundreds of links in those chains.
0:09:55 > 0:09:57It's a real house of cards.
0:09:59 > 0:10:03Here, fewer blue tits would mean less food for their predators,
0:10:03 > 0:10:05so they too would struggle to eat enough.
0:10:05 > 0:10:10But, thankfully, our housemates at least got their timings spot-on.
0:10:10 > 0:10:15They've successfully raised a family of eight healthy chicks
0:10:15 > 0:10:19and they're all now heading out into the big wide world.
0:10:26 > 0:10:30Even if some of them need a bit of extra encouragement.
0:10:37 > 0:10:38Attaboy.
0:10:42 > 0:10:45As temperatures rise, and the seasons shift,
0:10:45 > 0:10:50the landscape we know and love will definitely begin to change.
0:10:50 > 0:10:52But before we start to panic,
0:10:52 > 0:10:55it's worth pointing out that it's all happened before.
0:10:59 > 0:11:04Only a few centuries back, things were so much warmer.
0:11:04 > 0:11:07There were vineyards right across Britain...
0:11:09 > 0:11:11Not long after the Norman Conquest,
0:11:11 > 0:11:15our ancestors were getting merry on home-grown vino!
0:11:15 > 0:11:18The so-called medieval warm period
0:11:18 > 0:11:21was a time of long, hot summers and short winters.
0:11:21 > 0:11:26Conditions were so favourable that the population tripled in 200 years
0:11:26 > 0:11:29because of the bumper harvests.
0:11:31 > 0:11:34In fact, Britain's climate has warmed and cooled several times
0:11:34 > 0:11:37since the end of the last ice age.
0:11:37 > 0:11:41These are natural variations driven by a whole host of things,
0:11:41 > 0:11:45from changes in ocean currents to sunspots.
0:11:45 > 0:11:48So, if we've established that the climate is always changing,
0:11:48 > 0:11:51why do we assume it will change for the worse?
0:11:51 > 0:11:54It got much warmer in medieval times,
0:11:54 > 0:11:56and it didn't seem to do much harm.
0:11:56 > 0:11:59We can look forward to a time of growing fine home-made wine.
0:11:59 > 0:12:01We should celebrate.
0:12:08 > 0:12:10Cheers!
0:12:12 > 0:12:14But there's one big difference.
0:12:14 > 0:12:19Today, it's not just natural processes changing our climate.
0:12:22 > 0:12:26Across the globe, pollution is on the increase
0:12:26 > 0:12:31and that could lead to the thermometer rising higher than ever before.
0:12:33 > 0:12:37Power stations, factories, and endless millions of cars,
0:12:37 > 0:12:41pump out an ever-increasing amount of dangerous gases.
0:12:45 > 0:12:49It's the same for fridges and air conditioners too.
0:12:49 > 0:12:53And all these gases end up in the upper atmosphere,
0:12:53 > 0:12:59where they trap the Earth's heat, acting just like the glass in a greenhouse.
0:13:01 > 0:13:03This is global warming.
0:13:11 > 0:13:14So where better to discover what that could mean for our landscape,
0:13:14 > 0:13:20than in one of the biggest greenhouses in the world - Cornwall's Eden Project?
0:13:20 > 0:13:22Each biome holds plants
0:13:22 > 0:13:25which are perfectly adapted to suit climates
0:13:25 > 0:13:27that are different from ours.
0:13:27 > 0:13:30Might plants like these
0:13:30 > 0:13:33soon be growing in our countryside?
0:13:34 > 0:13:36This is the dry zone.
0:13:36 > 0:13:38There's no rain in here,
0:13:38 > 0:13:42except when the powers that be decide to turn on the sprinklers.
0:13:42 > 0:13:45But all these plants are capable of resisting drought.
0:13:45 > 0:13:49Their entire lives revolve around saving water.
0:13:50 > 0:13:53They have various ways of doing it.
0:13:53 > 0:13:57Succulents, like this aloe, have fleshy leaves that act
0:13:57 > 0:14:01as water storage organs and they live off that in dry periods.
0:14:01 > 0:14:05Other plants reduce the size of their leaves to save water
0:14:05 > 0:14:08and coat them with silvery, silky hairs
0:14:08 > 0:14:13that act like windbreaks and stop them drying out more. Quite nifty!
0:14:14 > 0:14:17You don't have to be small to survive without water.
0:14:17 > 0:14:20But if you're as tall as this date palm,
0:14:20 > 0:14:25you have to work out a way of extracting every last drop of moisture from the soil.
0:14:25 > 0:14:29And it does that by sending its roots down for tens of metres.
0:14:29 > 0:14:34Now if, as predicted, by global warming our summers become hotter and drier,
0:14:34 > 0:14:39our trees are not nearly so well-equipped as the date to survive.
0:14:47 > 0:14:53There's one particular type of forest that is especially sensitive to the effects of this heat wave.
0:14:53 > 0:14:56And, perhaps not surprisingly,
0:14:56 > 0:14:59it's only found in our coldest corners -
0:14:59 > 0:15:03up in the Highlands of Scotland.
0:15:12 > 0:15:15This is the Caledonian pine forest -
0:15:15 > 0:15:17the most ancient woodland in Britain
0:15:17 > 0:15:21and a strange and almost primeval environment.
0:15:25 > 0:15:29It's one of the last refuges for two of our rarest animals.
0:15:35 > 0:15:41The wild cat - much stockier than your average tabby.
0:15:44 > 0:15:49And there's the most famous grouse of them all, the capercaillie.
0:15:49 > 0:15:52It's been here since the end of the last ice age,
0:15:52 > 0:15:55a living remnant of much chillier times.
0:16:01 > 0:16:06This really is a unique community of plants and animals.
0:16:12 > 0:16:17It's a community that depends on three key species -
0:16:17 > 0:16:21the birch, the gnarled and the knotty Scots pine
0:16:21 > 0:16:24and the rugged shrubby juniper.
0:16:24 > 0:16:27All of them capable of coping with intense cold.
0:16:27 > 0:16:30The birch does it by shedding its leaves
0:16:30 > 0:16:32and shutting down for the winter.
0:16:32 > 0:16:36And the pine and the juniper by adapting their leaves,
0:16:36 > 0:16:39into these fine needles that lose much less moisture
0:16:39 > 0:16:41than a big floppy leaf.
0:16:41 > 0:16:45And their sap contains the plant equivalent of anti-freeze,
0:16:45 > 0:16:47so they don't go solid in winter.
0:16:49 > 0:16:53These specialist powers have enabled the trees and shrubs
0:16:53 > 0:16:57of the Caledonian forest to survive here for thousands of years,
0:16:57 > 0:17:00where less resilient plants have failed.
0:17:06 > 0:17:11But these powers could now be their undoing.
0:17:11 > 0:17:13They're so suited to the cold,
0:17:13 > 0:17:17that as Britain warms up, the Caledonian pine forest may not be able to cope.
0:17:19 > 0:17:24If global warming does turn up the heat, then its days may be numbered.
0:17:24 > 0:17:27And by the end of the century, it could look like this.
0:17:34 > 0:17:39But as the new heat wave marks the end of an era for some,
0:17:39 > 0:17:42it opens up new possibilities for others.
0:17:42 > 0:17:46A future Britain could be home to all sorts of new plants and animals.
0:17:46 > 0:17:50And some might well arrive with a little help from us.
0:17:56 > 0:17:59A single port, like this one at Felixstowe,
0:17:59 > 0:18:03deals with almost three million containers a year.
0:18:03 > 0:18:07That's over 300 every single hour, day and night,
0:18:07 > 0:18:10arriving from every part of the globe.
0:18:14 > 0:18:18And this is just one of the many gateways into Britain.
0:18:18 > 0:18:21Goods arrive on planes, trains and automobiles
0:18:21 > 0:18:26as well as 1,000-foot-long container ships.
0:18:26 > 0:18:32But these giant metal boxes can also bring all sorts of unwanted visitors.
0:18:38 > 0:18:41These guys have one of the most important jobs in Britain.
0:18:41 > 0:18:45They're looking for one of the most dangerous animals in the world
0:18:45 > 0:18:48and there could be one in this very container.
0:18:48 > 0:18:51Their target is a serial killer
0:18:51 > 0:18:54and it can kill in vast numbers.
0:18:54 > 0:18:56It's not fussy about its choice of prey
0:18:56 > 0:18:59and it's so dangerous that if it's found alive,
0:18:59 > 0:19:02it's destroyed immediately.
0:19:04 > 0:19:08And this is what they are looking for.
0:19:08 > 0:19:11Not a pretty sight, but it hardly looks like a killer, does it?
0:19:11 > 0:19:14Yet this is the larvae of this -
0:19:14 > 0:19:17the Asian longhorn beetle,
0:19:17 > 0:19:19and between them,
0:19:19 > 0:19:24they could change our landscape beyond recognition. How?
0:19:24 > 0:19:27They kill trees. By the million.
0:19:29 > 0:19:35Each female beetle will chew through the bark of any tree to lay up to 60 eggs.
0:19:35 > 0:19:39It's the grubs that hatch which do the real damage,
0:19:39 > 0:19:41feasting on the heartwood.
0:19:41 > 0:19:44They're not much more than a sausage with teeth,
0:19:44 > 0:19:49but an infestation will weaken and eventually kill the host tree.
0:19:53 > 0:19:57A full-scale invasion by these nasty creatures could go a long way
0:19:57 > 0:20:02to destroying our forests and Britain would look a sorry sight indeed.
0:20:05 > 0:20:10So far, the Asian longhorn beetle has failed to get past security,
0:20:10 > 0:20:13but it'll be only a matter of time before it does
0:20:13 > 0:20:17because this place is so vast
0:20:17 > 0:20:19that it's just like looking...
0:20:19 > 0:20:21FOR A NEEDLE IN A HAYSTACK!
0:20:30 > 0:20:35As Britain warms up, more and more foreign pests will be able to survive here.
0:20:39 > 0:20:45There are places where the invaders are already out of control
0:20:45 > 0:20:48and transforming our countryside.
0:20:58 > 0:21:02Normally, I'd only expect to find vegetation this dense
0:21:02 > 0:21:04in the heart of the jungle.
0:21:04 > 0:21:07It's so thick, I have to fight my way through it.
0:21:09 > 0:21:15But the truth of the matter is I'm thousands of miles away from the nearest rainforest.
0:21:15 > 0:21:18I'm in the graveyard...
0:21:18 > 0:21:21of a Baptist chapel in Swansea.
0:21:21 > 0:21:24I'm surrounded by one particular plant -
0:21:24 > 0:21:29a recent invader of our shores and a particularly nasty one.
0:21:29 > 0:21:32This is Japanese knotweed.
0:21:38 > 0:21:42The Victorians brought this Asian invader to Britain
0:21:42 > 0:21:46as an ornamental garden plant. But they rather underestimated
0:21:46 > 0:21:48just how vigorous it was.
0:21:50 > 0:21:53Today, this plant holds the title
0:21:53 > 0:21:57of the most notorious plant in Britain!
0:21:57 > 0:22:01Why? Because it grows so fast.
0:22:01 > 0:22:06Just four months ago, you could see nothing here except gravestones.
0:22:08 > 0:22:13The knotweed dies back each winter, but not for very long.
0:22:16 > 0:22:20Come the spring, it can grow by as much as an inch a day.
0:22:33 > 0:22:38By the summer, it's ten feet tall and simply smothers the place...
0:22:38 > 0:22:43literally suffocating anything that tries to grow underneath it.
0:22:43 > 0:22:48It's so unstoppable that soon it'll be beyond the confines of the cemetery.
0:22:51 > 0:22:55To try and keep this rampant weed under control,
0:22:55 > 0:22:59Swansea has appointed Britain's first knotweed control team.
0:23:01 > 0:23:06The battle is fought with machetes and powerful weedkillers.
0:23:08 > 0:23:14But in the war between man and plant, it's we who are on the defensive.
0:23:14 > 0:23:18Because knotweed actually grows through these.
0:23:20 > 0:23:23Underground runners.
0:23:24 > 0:23:26And from a little piece...
0:23:26 > 0:23:28like that...
0:23:28 > 0:23:30a new plant can grow.
0:23:33 > 0:23:36A piece weighing not much more than a matchstick
0:23:36 > 0:23:38can produce a whole new colony of knotweed
0:23:38 > 0:23:44and that's made it public enemy number one all over Britain.
0:23:50 > 0:23:54Nothing stands in the way of this super-weed.
0:23:59 > 0:24:03It's been estimated that to eradicate knotweed entirely
0:24:03 > 0:24:05would cost well over £1 billion.
0:24:05 > 0:24:08But it does have one Achilles heel -
0:24:08 > 0:24:12our strain can't produce viable seeds
0:24:12 > 0:24:15and that limits how fast it spreads.
0:24:15 > 0:24:18But if a mutation or hybrid created fertile plants
0:24:18 > 0:24:21that were as effective invaders as this one,
0:24:21 > 0:24:25then future Britain would be smothered in it.
0:24:26 > 0:24:32A sexually-active Japanese knotweed would unleash a knotweed epidemic across the country,
0:24:32 > 0:24:35that could sound the death knell for much of our native flora.
0:24:42 > 0:24:46In the future, could the knotweed control officer
0:24:46 > 0:24:48become as common as the postman?
0:24:48 > 0:24:52And the knotweed as abundant as the dandelion?
0:24:58 > 0:25:01We might learn to love new alien invaders.
0:25:01 > 0:25:04After all, it wouldn't be the first time.
0:25:04 > 0:25:08This is your quintessential English country village -
0:25:08 > 0:25:10Broadway in Worcestershire -
0:25:10 > 0:25:14with its wonderful Cotswold stone walls and roofs,
0:25:14 > 0:25:19roses round the door, hollyhocks springing up in the front garden.
0:25:19 > 0:25:23You know, if it weren't for the roads and the odd telegraph pole,
0:25:23 > 0:25:26you could think you were in medieval Britain.
0:25:30 > 0:25:35But not everything here is quite as British as it seems.
0:25:35 > 0:25:37There's an alien lurking close by.
0:25:38 > 0:25:42Any ideas? No? Well, it was this...
0:25:43 > 0:25:45..the horse chestnut tree.
0:25:47 > 0:25:50It might seem as English as Yorkshire pud,
0:25:50 > 0:25:53but it actually hails from the Balkans.
0:25:53 > 0:25:56When I was a schoolboy, I had a 49er.
0:25:56 > 0:25:59But if I'd been born 500 years earlier,
0:25:59 > 0:26:02I'd have used a hazelnut instead of a conker.
0:26:02 > 0:26:06I'd have been lucky if that had become a 9er!
0:26:06 > 0:26:10The conker wasn't introduced until the late-16th century.
0:26:17 > 0:26:21So not all invading species are as unwanted as the knotweed,
0:26:21 > 0:26:23or as evil as the weevil.
0:26:23 > 0:26:27Whatever new arrivals are brought as global warming kicks in,
0:26:27 > 0:26:31there's at least one fringe benefit we can all enjoy.
0:26:31 > 0:26:34MUSIC: "The Sun Has Got His Hat On"
0:26:38 > 0:26:42With Mediterranean weather right on our doorstep,
0:26:42 > 0:26:46the great British seaside holiday will boom!
0:27:04 > 0:27:08So, it's going to be one long hot summer then, eh?
0:27:08 > 0:27:11Well, not necessarily.
0:27:12 > 0:27:14Look at this!
0:27:14 > 0:27:17Good afternoon. How things change!
0:27:17 > 0:27:21Not so long ago, early September, it was like this - clear blue skies, unbroken sunshine,
0:27:21 > 0:27:24temperatures had soared,
0:27:24 > 0:27:29we had five days with temperatures over 100F, a record 43C,
0:27:29 > 0:27:32that's 110 Fahrenheit there at Faversham.
0:27:32 > 0:27:38And what's more, there'd been eight weeks without rain. Now look at it! It's hardly stopped.
0:27:38 > 0:27:42This is the 33rd day we've had torrential rain across the country.
0:27:42 > 0:27:47So it's hardly surprising that many rivers are on very high flood risk.
0:27:47 > 0:27:53In fact, many rivers have burst their banks. We do have severe flooding in many parts.
0:27:53 > 0:27:59Motorists are advised to stay at home or to check before you make an essential journey.
0:27:59 > 0:28:02And if that wasn't enough, things will get worse.
0:28:02 > 0:28:05In the next few days, it'll get windier.
0:28:05 > 0:28:07Gales, storm force winds even,
0:28:07 > 0:28:12together with that heavy rain and there might by the odd tornado thrown in for good measure.
0:28:12 > 0:28:15And that's the weather for now.
0:28:18 > 0:28:21As well as hot, drought-ridden summers,
0:28:21 > 0:28:25global warming will bring wet and stormy winters.
0:28:27 > 0:28:33Winter rainfall could increase by 30% with the downpours becoming much more intense.
0:28:37 > 0:28:41With so much rain falling in such a short space of time,
0:28:41 > 0:28:46Britain's countryside could be heading for a flooded future.
0:28:54 > 0:28:57In the last few years,
0:28:57 > 0:29:01many of our rivers have reached the highest levels ever recorded
0:29:01 > 0:29:04and it's probably going to get worse.
0:29:09 > 0:29:14Really major floods, the sort that in the past happened only once or twice in a century,
0:29:14 > 0:29:18might now sweep across our islands as often as every ten years.
0:29:23 > 0:29:27It's a trend that already seems to be happening.
0:29:37 > 0:29:40But they say it's nice weather for ducks.
0:29:43 > 0:29:46Though I'm not quite sure
0:29:46 > 0:29:48that the ducks would agree.
0:29:53 > 0:29:56It's not just rain that these frequent storms could bring.
0:29:56 > 0:30:00Gale-force winds may become five times more common
0:30:00 > 0:30:03and they will force everyone to hunker down.
0:30:12 > 0:30:17If high winds and even tornadoes bully their way across the British Isles,
0:30:17 > 0:30:22the sea will be whipped up to ever greater heights.
0:30:28 > 0:30:30Throughout the winter,
0:30:30 > 0:30:33our shores will be pounded and pummelled
0:30:33 > 0:30:36by this relentless surf.
0:30:43 > 0:30:49For one corner of Britain, these future frequent storms could be the last straw.
0:30:49 > 0:30:51The village of Happisburgh in Norfolk
0:30:51 > 0:30:55has been getting smaller in recent years,
0:30:55 > 0:31:00as the winter waves steadily eat away at the soft earth.
0:31:00 > 0:31:03The sea has already devoured huge chunks of the cliff,
0:31:03 > 0:31:08taking a road, and at least six houses to a watery grave.
0:31:09 > 0:31:12In an attempt to fend off the forces of nature,
0:31:12 > 0:31:154,000 tonnes of boulders have been brought in
0:31:15 > 0:31:19and lined up along the beach front.
0:31:19 > 0:31:23Unfortunately, yet more cliff was eroded away in the process.
0:31:23 > 0:31:28These stony sentinels should help absorb the worst of the sea's fury,
0:31:28 > 0:31:30for a while at least.
0:31:34 > 0:31:37But it's not just the rage of the storms
0:31:37 > 0:31:39that threatens this coastline.
0:31:39 > 0:31:44Global warming could bring another, far more insidious, danger.
0:32:00 > 0:32:04Three quarters of the world's fresh water
0:32:04 > 0:32:06is locked up in ice.
0:32:09 > 0:32:13That's seven million cubic miles of H20.
0:32:17 > 0:32:19But the ice is melting...
0:32:19 > 0:32:20fast.
0:32:21 > 0:32:24As the greenhouse effect takes hold,
0:32:24 > 0:32:26more than 90% of the world's glaciers
0:32:26 > 0:32:30from the Alps to the Andes are shrinking.
0:32:35 > 0:32:41And yet all these glaciers account for only 6% of the Earth's ice.
0:32:41 > 0:32:45Much more is found in the frozen landscapes of Greenland
0:32:45 > 0:32:47and Antarctica.
0:33:00 > 0:33:02Already, vast chunks of polar ice -
0:33:02 > 0:33:06sometimes up to half the size of Yorkshire -
0:33:06 > 0:33:08are breaking off and melting.
0:33:12 > 0:33:16There's no doubt about it, the water in the world's oceans
0:33:16 > 0:33:20is increasing and that means the sea level
0:33:20 > 0:33:22is on the rise.
0:33:22 > 0:33:24And this could have a big impact
0:33:24 > 0:33:28on some of our most famous coastal landscapes -
0:33:28 > 0:33:31places like Morecambe Bay.
0:33:34 > 0:33:40I'm with Cedric Robinson, the Queen's Guide to the Sands of the Bay.
0:33:40 > 0:33:44For all Morecambe Bay looks beautiful, it's one of the most dangerous spots in Britain.
0:33:44 > 0:33:49The tides rise so fast and the quick sand so treacherous,
0:33:49 > 0:33:53that hundreds of people have lost their lives in the bay.
0:33:53 > 0:33:56My life, and the Queen's if she were here,
0:33:56 > 0:33:59will be in Cedric's hands. I'd better keep up.
0:34:01 > 0:34:03This beautiful bay
0:34:03 > 0:34:08is made up of over 120 square miles of mud flats...
0:34:10 > 0:34:15Each and every day they're shifted and shaped by the tide,
0:34:15 > 0:34:20which is why it takes an expert like Cedric to navigate a safe passage.
0:34:21 > 0:34:25But Cedric might be out of job soon,
0:34:25 > 0:34:30along with all those who depend on the bay for their livelihood.
0:34:36 > 0:34:38These fertile sediments
0:34:38 > 0:34:44have provided a living for countless generations of people and birds alike.
0:34:44 > 0:34:48But with sea levels possibly rising by two feet,
0:34:48 > 0:34:52the tides could permanently cover up these rich sands.
0:35:05 > 0:35:08By the end of this century,
0:35:08 > 0:35:15the ebb and flow which has provided a rhythm to the life of the bay's inhabitants for thousands of years
0:35:15 > 0:35:17might eventually overwhelm them.
0:35:35 > 0:35:38Then, Morecambe Bay's 250,000 birds
0:35:38 > 0:35:42would have to find somewhere else to feed.
0:35:55 > 0:36:00All over the British Isles, the sea is encroaching ever further inland,
0:36:00 > 0:36:04threatening the livelihoods of four million people.
0:36:04 > 0:36:06And nowhere more so
0:36:06 > 0:36:10than the low-lying lands of Southeast England.
0:36:19 > 0:36:21For more than two decades,
0:36:21 > 0:36:25the Thames Barrier has been the front line of defence
0:36:25 > 0:36:28against waters that threaten to drown the capital.
0:36:30 > 0:36:35Its steel gates, weighing 1,500 tonnes each,
0:36:35 > 0:36:39are drawn up whenever a dangerously high tide is on the way -
0:36:39 > 0:36:43something that seems to be happening more and more often each year.
0:36:50 > 0:36:53But in the very worst-case scenario,
0:36:53 > 0:36:56even the Thames Barrier would be overwhelmed.
0:36:56 > 0:36:59If the ice of Antarctica really goes into meltdown,
0:36:59 > 0:37:05the outline of Britain could be transformed by a sea-level rise of more than 20 feet.
0:37:09 > 0:37:11Nelson would return to the sea,
0:37:11 > 0:37:15as London became our very own Atlantis.
0:37:19 > 0:37:22Nothing could avoid this inundation of water -
0:37:22 > 0:37:26even the nation's favourite square would be threatened.
0:37:36 > 0:37:39So what could we do about this mega-flood?
0:37:39 > 0:37:44Well, the trouble is that predicting exactly what the future holds
0:37:44 > 0:37:47isn't much more reliable than a flutter on the horses.
0:37:53 > 0:37:57A fiver on the nose of Global Sunrise, please.
0:37:57 > 0:38:02- Is that a good bet?- That's the winner!- Do you reckon? We'll see.
0:38:02 > 0:38:08A 20-foot sea-level rise is a real outsider at 1,000 to one.
0:38:09 > 0:38:13But a two-foot rise is a much safer bet at only four to one.
0:38:13 > 0:38:17Wetter winters come in at two to one, while warmer summers -
0:38:17 > 0:38:21well, no bookie would offer anything other than evens!
0:38:32 > 0:38:34Pipped at the post again!
0:38:34 > 0:38:37I like a flutter as much as the next man, you know.
0:38:37 > 0:38:40But if you asked me how warm Britain would get,
0:38:40 > 0:38:43or how much land would be flooded,
0:38:43 > 0:38:46well, I'd keep my money in my wallet.
0:38:46 > 0:38:49Only time will tell
0:38:49 > 0:38:53exactly how Britain's countryside will be changed by global warming.
0:38:53 > 0:38:57The only certainty is that the Earth is getting hotter.
0:38:58 > 0:39:03But there is just an outside chance that as the world becomes warmer,
0:39:03 > 0:39:05Britain could become colder.
0:39:05 > 0:39:10If you like backing a long shot, it could be worth a gamble.
0:39:13 > 0:39:19Some people think that we could be racing towards not a Mediterranean summer but a big freeze.
0:39:27 > 0:39:31How very different a day at the races would be then!
0:39:44 > 0:39:49Global warming leading to an icy Britain! Just our luck!
0:39:49 > 0:39:52It's all to do with the Gulf Stream.
0:39:52 > 0:39:57This current of warm water from the tropics keeps us ten degrees warmer
0:39:57 > 0:40:00than our northerly position deserves.
0:40:00 > 0:40:04But if enough cold water is released by the melting Arctic,
0:40:04 > 0:40:07then the Gulf Stream could slow or even stop.
0:40:10 > 0:40:15And that could cause the beginning of a very big chill.
0:40:15 > 0:40:20It's hard to fathom how we'd cope with such relentless cold.
0:40:20 > 0:40:23Even a few inches of snow seem to paralyse some of our roads today.
0:40:23 > 0:40:29Imagine trying to get to work if it snowed every day for six months of the year!
0:40:32 > 0:40:36Leaves on the line would be the least of our rail worries
0:40:36 > 0:40:40and cross-Channel ferries would be replaced with ice breakers.
0:40:48 > 0:40:51Even the Thames would freeze over in winter
0:40:51 > 0:40:54as our northerly position took effect.
0:41:00 > 0:41:04And how would our wildlife cope with weather like this?
0:41:05 > 0:41:09Well, for some, it might be a welcome arrival.
0:41:09 > 0:41:15Ptarmigan have clung on in Britain since the last ice age and are well adapted to cold conditions,
0:41:15 > 0:41:19which these days they find only on the highest mountains in Scotland.
0:41:19 > 0:41:23They'd find a colder Britain much more to their liking
0:41:23 > 0:41:27and a welcome relief from our recent mild winters.
0:41:31 > 0:41:35Mountain hares, with their thick fur coats,
0:41:35 > 0:41:38would also stay warm in temperatures below freezing.
0:41:43 > 0:41:46But not everyone would cope so well.
0:41:46 > 0:41:53For most of our plants and animals, this endless winter would be a disaster.
0:42:02 > 0:42:06But the real concern is that this big chill
0:42:06 > 0:42:10could actually lead us into a new ice age.
0:42:10 > 0:42:13As winter snowfalls get heavier,
0:42:13 > 0:42:15a vicious circle could set in.
0:42:15 > 0:42:19Colder winters mean more snow, which in turn makes colder winters,
0:42:19 > 0:42:21and so on.
0:42:21 > 0:42:23Britain might become iced over.
0:42:33 > 0:42:38A frozen Britain would look just as it did only 15,000 years ago.
0:42:39 > 0:42:41It's bitterly cold
0:42:41 > 0:42:45and absolutely...silent.
0:42:45 > 0:42:47A featureless landscape,
0:42:47 > 0:42:50a panorama of ice and snow.
0:43:00 > 0:43:05Of course, it would take years before Britain was covered by this much ice.
0:43:06 > 0:43:13But, eventually, our green and rolling landscape would disappear
0:43:13 > 0:43:16under a vast frozen wasteland.
0:43:22 > 0:43:27The Cairngorms, the Pennines, Snowdonia -
0:43:27 > 0:43:30there'd be glaciers like this on all of them.
0:43:32 > 0:43:35The British landscape we know today,
0:43:35 > 0:43:37sculpted by the last ice age,
0:43:37 > 0:43:42would once again be scraped, scarred and re-shaped
0:43:42 > 0:43:45by the tremendous power of the ice.
0:43:45 > 0:43:49But any future glaciers would be gouging their way down valleys
0:43:49 > 0:43:53that millions of us have occupied for generations.
0:43:53 > 0:43:57Just imagine what kind of debris would be turning up.
0:44:01 > 0:44:03Any future ice age
0:44:03 > 0:44:07would sweep away the trappings of our modern lives
0:44:07 > 0:44:09with ruthless efficiency.
0:44:11 > 0:44:15And who knows what kind of landscape would be revealed
0:44:15 > 0:44:18when that ice finally melts?
0:44:19 > 0:44:23The chances are that the next ice age is a long way off.
0:44:23 > 0:44:28But whether it's 500, 5,000, or 50,000 years into the future,
0:44:28 > 0:44:32the ice will return one day.
0:44:35 > 0:44:38Whether it's global warming or the big freeze,
0:44:38 > 0:44:41whatever the future brings for the British Isles,
0:44:41 > 0:44:45it will be yet another chapter in a long and epic history.
0:44:49 > 0:44:54In this series, we've travelled through three billion years of that history
0:44:54 > 0:44:59to witness ancient events that rocked Britain,
0:44:59 > 0:45:03events which ultimately created the land we call home.
0:45:08 > 0:45:13For me, it's been an extraordinary journey of discovery.
0:45:13 > 0:45:19I'd never dreamt that Britain had seen so much change.
0:45:24 > 0:45:27As I've followed the story of Britain's creation,
0:45:27 > 0:45:30from one end of the country to the other,
0:45:30 > 0:45:33it's also been a reminder of what a spectacular place
0:45:33 > 0:45:36the British Isles really are...
0:45:42 > 0:45:47..and what a wealth of wildlife lives within this pattern of islands.
0:45:53 > 0:45:57Ever since humans first made the British Isles their home,
0:45:57 > 0:46:01our relationship with the countryside has become ever more important,
0:46:01 > 0:46:04as we ourselves have grown in numbers
0:46:04 > 0:46:08from a handful of hunter-gatherers
0:46:08 > 0:46:11to a population of millions.
0:46:16 > 0:46:19We've stamped our mark on the countryside
0:46:19 > 0:46:21in so many ways.
0:46:24 > 0:46:28Far in the future, great natural events
0:46:28 > 0:46:31will again rock the foundations of the British Isles.
0:46:31 > 0:46:35But for the time being, it's us - you and me -
0:46:35 > 0:46:39who are shaping the immediate future of the country.
0:46:49 > 0:46:54This is where we make our homes, raise our families
0:46:54 > 0:46:56and meet with our friends.
0:46:56 > 0:47:00The British Isles are a special place.
0:47:02 > 0:47:04I mean, just look.
0:47:04 > 0:47:07We live in the most beautiful group of islands,
0:47:07 > 0:47:11with a matchless variety of plants and animals and scenery.
0:47:11 > 0:47:14And whether your bit of landscape is down in the town
0:47:14 > 0:47:17or out in the open countryside,
0:47:17 > 0:47:20don't just look at it on telly.
0:47:20 > 0:47:22Come out here.
0:47:22 > 0:47:25Smell it. Touch it. Feel it.
0:47:25 > 0:47:27Get up close to it and among it
0:47:27 > 0:47:31and you'll learn to love it and to care for it.
0:47:31 > 0:47:33And that's the only way
0:47:33 > 0:47:37that the future beauty of the British Isles can be assured.
0:47:43 > 0:47:45As this is the last programme,
0:47:45 > 0:47:48I want to finish by showing you the things
0:47:48 > 0:47:50people are doing up and down the country,
0:47:50 > 0:47:55looking after the landscape and simply getting out and enjoying it.
0:47:55 > 0:47:59There are thousands of different conservation projects across Britain
0:47:59 > 0:48:03that you can get involved in and they ALL make a difference.
0:48:07 > 0:48:09Here in the Somerset Levels,
0:48:09 > 0:48:13the historic wetland is wonderful just to explore.
0:48:13 > 0:48:15But it's not a wilderness.
0:48:15 > 0:48:17It's a man-made landscape.
0:48:17 > 0:48:22For 2,000 years, the priority has been agriculture -
0:48:22 > 0:48:25draining the land to make it more productive.
0:48:25 > 0:48:27Now, priorities are changing
0:48:27 > 0:48:32and water is being reintroduced to expand wetland areas
0:48:32 > 0:48:36as wildlife conservation has become more important.
0:48:36 > 0:48:38And that's where volunteers come in.
0:48:38 > 0:48:42They're not experts, they're just ordinary local folk.
0:48:43 > 0:48:47These are the Avalon Marshes, near Glastonbury.
0:48:47 > 0:48:49And for about the last 15 years,
0:48:49 > 0:48:52the locals have been working hard,
0:48:52 > 0:48:56turning them back into what they looked like about 2,000 years ago.
0:48:59 > 0:49:03As the water level rises in reserves like this one,
0:49:03 > 0:49:07a major task is to remove the birch trees.
0:49:07 > 0:49:10The mosses and grasses that grow better in the wet
0:49:10 > 0:49:14bring in more insects, which birds and other wildlife feed on.
0:49:17 > 0:49:21I remember coming out here about ten years ago
0:49:21 > 0:49:23and the warden showing us
0:49:23 > 0:49:25a little tiny bit of heather,
0:49:25 > 0:49:29which had come back. It had come out of the seed bank.
0:49:29 > 0:49:32And now you're treading on it everywhere.
0:49:35 > 0:49:38It's my chance to get out and about, really.
0:49:38 > 0:49:43Sometimes, at the end of the day, you've made a real difference.
0:49:43 > 0:49:47And you can say, you know, "I've done that and done my bit."
0:49:47 > 0:49:50There's satisfaction in that.
0:49:50 > 0:49:53As the Avalon Marshes are returned to wetlands,
0:49:53 > 0:49:58they've also become a perfect place to learn about this fragile environment.
0:49:58 > 0:50:00Have you been to a wetland before?
0:50:00 > 0:50:04- ALL: No.- So why is this special? What do you like about it?
0:50:04 > 0:50:10- It's got insects.- It's got new things.- Lots of different flowers.
0:50:10 > 0:50:13Can you remember them all? People always say they can't.
0:50:13 > 0:50:18- Moss.- Moss.- Heather.- Moss and heather. What have we got here?
0:50:18 > 0:50:21Cotton grass.
0:50:21 > 0:50:22Cotton grass.
0:50:33 > 0:50:37Since this particular piece of conservation work began,
0:50:37 > 0:50:41the marsh here has come alive with plants and insects.
0:50:41 > 0:50:46That means, in turn, it encourages more animals and birds.
0:50:46 > 0:50:50Right now, around 150,000 starlings are coming here to roost
0:50:50 > 0:50:54and by the end of the winter, that will be millions.
0:51:09 > 0:51:12So, if you want to get out and get your hands dirty
0:51:12 > 0:51:14on the conservation side of things,
0:51:14 > 0:51:17there's a lot going on and not just in Somerset.
0:51:17 > 0:51:22This is the RSPB's nature reserve at Rainham Marshes in Essex.
0:51:22 > 0:51:27It's a brand-new reserve which should open to within a year or so.
0:51:27 > 0:51:30The marshes here are already teeming with life.
0:51:30 > 0:51:33So, the work of the volunteers here
0:51:33 > 0:51:36is to make it accessible and visitor-friendly.
0:51:39 > 0:51:42It was an army base. This was where they did target practice.
0:51:42 > 0:51:47Since I've been here, we've found the odd bullet and that's it!
0:51:49 > 0:51:51I'm a keen birdwatcher.
0:51:51 > 0:51:55I grew up nearby, so it's chance to put something into the community.
0:51:59 > 0:52:02Even if you live in a big town,
0:52:02 > 0:52:04there's something you can get involved in.
0:52:04 > 0:52:09In Brighton, volunteers are making a wildlife garden from scratch
0:52:09 > 0:52:11in a sheltered-housing complex.
0:52:12 > 0:52:16People that can't get out here can look out of their windows
0:52:16 > 0:52:19and see it or they can sit down
0:52:19 > 0:52:22and enjoy the birds.
0:52:22 > 0:52:25You know, to me, it's going to be so amazing.
0:52:30 > 0:52:34Conservation work can range in scale from planting in your own back yard
0:52:34 > 0:52:38to trying to turn back the tide and protecting the coastline.
0:52:39 > 0:52:43Here on the coast by the Somerset Levels,
0:52:43 > 0:52:46like any man-made landscape, there's a bigger picture.
0:52:46 > 0:52:49Climate change could have a drastic effect
0:52:49 > 0:52:51if rainfall gets any more intense in winter
0:52:51 > 0:52:55or if the sea levels continue to rise.
0:52:55 > 0:52:58Sometimes, there's just too much water.
0:52:59 > 0:53:06The Levels flood because the huge amounts of rainwater can't escape into the sea fast enough.
0:53:06 > 0:53:10But if the sea level itself were to rise, out in the Bristol Channel,
0:53:10 > 0:53:13then these defences would be breached.
0:53:13 > 0:53:18Now, that hasn't happened in 300 years because of land management -
0:53:18 > 0:53:23spotting potential problems and taking avoidance tactics.
0:53:30 > 0:53:33And that's what conservation is all about.
0:53:33 > 0:53:36But there are lots of other things that you can do
0:53:36 > 0:53:40if you simply want to appreciate the natural history of the British Isles.
0:53:45 > 0:53:48With just an ordinary pair of walking boots,
0:53:48 > 0:53:53you can get in touch not just with the history in your area, but also with natural history.
0:53:53 > 0:53:59Here in Glastonbury, there's a two-and-a-half-mile walk that'll only take you a couple of hours
0:53:59 > 0:54:04and you don't have to climb the Tor if you don't want to. Oh, come on!
0:54:13 > 0:54:16Cor! It's blowy! But there's a good view.
0:54:16 > 0:54:22And what you see here with all these vistas is just what we can do when we set our minds to it.
0:54:22 > 0:54:26Now, 2,000 years ago, all this was soggy wetland
0:54:26 > 0:54:29and now it's cultivated farmland.
0:54:29 > 0:54:35But in large areas, being turned back into wetland for wildlife and to suit our needs.
0:54:35 > 0:54:42The Somerset Levels point up the fragility of the British countryside.
0:54:42 > 0:54:46In the long term, it may be at the mercy of nature.
0:54:46 > 0:54:48But in the short term,
0:54:48 > 0:54:51the landscape is entirely in our hands.
0:54:58 > 0:55:01One thing's for certain -
0:55:01 > 0:55:04after three billion years in the making,
0:55:04 > 0:55:07the British Isles will never stand still.