:00:22. > :00:24.Hello and welcome to the One Show with Matt Baker.
:00:25. > :00:26.Now, tonight's guests have something in common.
:00:27. > :00:35.It's Europe's big test. edition of One Hundred Days.
:00:36. > :00:37.France prepares to go to the polls in the first
:00:38. > :00:41.Yes good evening from Paris, according to the polls one in four
:00:42. > :00:45.France prepares to go to the polls in the first
:00:46. > :00:49.Yes good evening from Paris, according to the polls one in four
:00:50. > :00:51.French voters still undecided with three days to go.
:00:52. > :00:53.Those polls couldn't be tighter ahead of Sunday's vote,
:00:54. > :00:55.tonight all 11 Presidential candidates will be making
:00:56. > :00:59.In just over half an hour, they will be taking to the stage
:01:00. > :01:02.for the last televised forum before the voters decide on Sunday.
:01:03. > :01:05.Course France isn't the only country with election fever, in the UK
:01:06. > :01:08.the Labour Leader Jeremy Corbyn has laid out his case ahead of
:01:09. > :01:12.it is the establishment of verses of the people. It is our historic duty
:01:13. > :01:13.to make sure the people prevail. Also, Fox News parts ways
:01:14. > :01:15.with Bill O'Reilly after allegations Was the split because
:01:16. > :01:18.of money or morals? Rupert Murdoch wants
:01:19. > :01:20.to expand his media empire and the O'Reilly scandal risked
:01:21. > :01:22.getting in the way. And there are few things as iconic
:01:23. > :01:26.in America as a Harley Davidson. It turns out the famous Wisconsin
:01:27. > :01:28.bike can teach us a lot Hello and welcome to One Hundred
:01:29. > :01:41.Days, I'm Katty Kay in Washington, US politics has dominated
:01:42. > :01:44.headlines since we began the era of Donald Trump,
:01:45. > :01:47.but now there's another election This weekend is the first
:01:48. > :01:52.round of the French election and the latest polls suggest it's
:01:53. > :01:55.a tight race. In the next hour, French television
:01:56. > :01:57.will start grilling the candidates, there are 11 of them in total,
:01:58. > :02:00.but there are five in particular Each contender will get just fifteen
:02:01. > :02:08.minutes to convince French voters they should be in the second
:02:09. > :02:10.round run off. A quarter of those who plan
:02:11. > :02:16.to vote say they may still change their minds
:02:17. > :02:19.on who they will plump The big question of course
:02:20. > :02:28.is whether the populist trend we have seen in Britain
:02:29. > :02:45.and in the United States The histories of France and America
:02:46. > :02:50.have often followed a similar path. The American Revolution that ended
:02:51. > :02:54.in 1783 was quickly followed by the French Revolution of 1789. The
:02:55. > :03:01.question is whether history is about to repeat itself this coming
:03:02. > :03:06.fortnight. There are obvious similarities between Donald Trump
:03:07. > :03:09.and Marine Le Pen. Nationalism, populism, protectionism, support for
:03:10. > :03:14.Brexit and hatred of the mainstream media. Both are cast by the people
:03:15. > :03:23.as revolutionaries in the battle against the establishment. There are
:03:24. > :03:27.many things besides Marine Le Pen that we regard as could essentially
:03:28. > :03:32.French. The food, the fine wines, the smell of burnt rubber in the
:03:33. > :03:39.Paris Metro. Equally distinctive is the French style of thinking. The
:03:40. > :03:45.programme of Mr Melenchon goes a long way to changing capitalism. I
:03:46. > :03:51.am for Macron. I wouldn't vote for Marine Le Pen. France has become
:03:52. > :03:55.increasingly inward looking. Far from the high-fashion critiques of
:03:56. > :03:59.the left bank, there is no chronic unemployment. It is worst in the
:04:00. > :04:03.city suburbs amongst the young and ethnic minorities. There is slow
:04:04. > :04:08.growth and there is death. Amidst the doubt, the feeling that French
:04:09. > :04:12.culture is itself in crisis. Since Charles de Gaulle founded the fifth
:04:13. > :04:16.Republic in 1958, the French political system has been dominated
:04:17. > :04:21.by the two party system. Now the Socialists and the Republicans.
:04:22. > :04:25.Three of the four main candidates, Le Pen, Melenchon and Macron are
:04:26. > :04:29.considered outsiders and it is quite possible that this second run will
:04:30. > :04:33.pit the fight back against the far left. Imagine the consequences of
:04:34. > :04:39.that not only for France, but for Europe. Traditionally, the French
:04:40. > :04:42.use the first round of the presidential election to vote for
:04:43. > :04:49.the politician they want. The second round to vote for the politician
:04:50. > :04:52.they fear. The odds are still stacked against Marine the end, but
:04:53. > :04:56.to predict the outcome this weekend would be foolhardy in the extreme,
:04:57. > :05:00.given how wrong we all work over Brexit and Trump.
:05:01. > :05:02.With me now is Pierre Lellouche, former Europe Minister for France
:05:03. > :05:07.and member of parliament for The Republican Party.
:05:08. > :05:15.You have just come from a rally. You wrote the terror legislation here in
:05:16. > :05:18.France, which we will talk about in a second. A lot of people will be
:05:19. > :05:25.confused in the United States in Britain, how is Francois Fillon held
:05:26. > :05:28.on question facing the weight of allegations that he did and to be
:05:29. > :05:31.within a couple of points at the top of the polls, it probably couldn't
:05:32. > :05:38.happen in any other country, could it? Probably not. He has shown
:05:39. > :05:45.extraordinary resilience and, at the same time, the schedule of the legal
:05:46. > :05:52.procedure was such that it made it just impossible for the right to
:05:53. > :05:55.have another candidate in effect. So, you still have the campaign from
:05:56. > :06:01.half of the French people. That is one of the explanation will stop had
:06:02. > :06:09.this happened much earlier, it would probably be different. We were
:06:10. > :06:19.caught in a binder here. There was no way to have another candidate at
:06:20. > :06:25.that point. The right-wing voters do want to change the system in France.
:06:26. > :06:29.We have just had five years of Francois Hollande with a disastrous
:06:30. > :06:34.impact on the economy and on unemployment. We have 1.2 million
:06:35. > :06:38.more unemployment at the end of this five years and an enormous amount of
:06:39. > :06:43.deficit and new taxes. A lot of people here want a change. All the
:06:44. > :06:51.candidates simply agreed that the system is broken. What happens if,
:06:52. > :06:56.come Sunday evening, we are talking about a second round with Marine Le
:06:57. > :07:01.Pen and Jean-Luc Melenchon of the hard left? What happens to France
:07:02. > :07:09.then? Probably some kind of a revolution. We love revolution. The
:07:10. > :07:17.country would be split into. Nobody even knows what would happen then.
:07:18. > :07:21.In this particular case, a number of things will happen. One is Europe is
:07:22. > :07:29.dead. Second, interest rates will shoot up, making it tragic for the
:07:30. > :07:33.French debt. We have a debt now of 100% of GDP and most of that debt is
:07:34. > :07:38.owned by foreigners. That means if the interest rates go up, we will
:07:39. > :07:44.have a huge problem. Just to pay salaries. The crisis would be
:07:45. > :07:50.immediate and the other half of the country will disagree, so if that
:07:51. > :07:58.happened, we would enter a period of incredible instability. That is why
:07:59. > :08:03.I believe that at the last moment, reasonable probably prevail. The
:08:04. > :08:08.open they will say this is the man with experience, he can lead France.
:08:09. > :08:15.One thing is sure, after Brexit and after Trump, the fact that two of
:08:16. > :08:21.the key candidates are outside the system and want to go out of Europe
:08:22. > :08:27.is already some kind of a victory for Brexit and Trump is, because if
:08:28. > :08:36.the ad of Le Pen and Melenchon, it is nearly half of the vote. It is 23
:08:37. > :08:42.plus 19 or something like that. It is about 40%, 42%. Leaving Fillon
:08:43. > :08:49.and Macron, who are pro-European ad about this level. It is a referendum
:08:50. > :08:52.fought against Europe way. If if, by any chance we are in a situation
:08:53. > :08:57.where the two extremists, right and left extremists are defined the
:08:58. > :09:07.contenders, it would be a massive crisis for Europe and, probably, a
:09:08. > :09:16.moment of historical instability in the country. We are out of time. One
:09:17. > :09:20.last thing, it is not the most probable option. I do not think it
:09:21. > :09:24.is the most probable option. Even though the collection is unreadable
:09:25. > :09:33.at the moment. If you speak to any poster, they do not know. Thank you
:09:34. > :09:37.for coming. All of these candidates are campaigning. Each has come from
:09:38. > :09:43.a rally, they are going to rallies. Marine Le Pen was in Marseille.
:09:44. > :09:48.Let's hear what she had to say. We have to protect the unity of our
:09:49. > :09:52.people. We have to protect them, how to do that if we are in permanent
:09:53. > :09:56.posterity? I want to protect the people I am part of, the people who
:09:57. > :10:06.have seen he go and seen my children grow and he will seek my children.
:10:07. > :10:08.Children grow. We just heard the view from the centre-right. Let's
:10:09. > :10:09.get the view from the socialist camp.
:10:10. > :10:11.With me is the Socialist politician Helene Conway-Mouret,
:10:12. > :10:26.You were at the Senator for the expatriates abroad. I still am.
:10:27. > :10:33.Hamon has just not cut off the ground in this campaign. He is
:10:34. > :10:37.nowhere. Yes, unfortunately, after the primary which he won outright
:10:38. > :10:42.and had a very good score, he was unable to launch a campaign
:10:43. > :10:47.immediately stop I think it was about a month where he spent time
:10:48. > :10:52.talking to his opponent on the left, Jean-Luc Melenchon, and to the
:10:53. > :10:57.Greens. His idea was to have a big alliance on the left and then go
:10:58. > :11:01.forward, except the wasted time. During that time Melenchon started
:11:02. > :11:14.getting some of the votes and Macron was also campaigning. Hamon is the
:11:15. > :11:19.expression of the time that has been taken off on the left and right.
:11:20. > :11:22.Even the campaign is good, he is asking the right questions and so on
:11:23. > :11:26.and has a good programme, the French are not into the deep debate on
:11:27. > :11:32.programmes, on whatever is being offered. We are talking about
:11:33. > :11:38.candidates, the personalities and so on. It is a funny kind of campaign.
:11:39. > :11:42.You are still with Mr Hamon, but there are a number of your fellow
:11:43. > :11:45.senators and fellow socialist who alerted tiptoeing over to the Macron
:11:46. > :11:50.side, is that where you will be going in the second round? We will
:11:51. > :11:57.have the same. My adversary in politics is the National front. I am
:11:58. > :12:02.against everything they stand for. The economic programme is absolutely
:12:03. > :12:14.ridiculous as detrimental to France. The against Europe. I will fight the
:12:15. > :12:19.extreme right and... Is either wandered off to Mr Macron's side,
:12:20. > :12:24.they just say this is the continuity candidate, this is really the
:12:25. > :12:28.candidate of Mr Fernandes? It is not. Nobody forces me to be part of
:12:29. > :12:34.the party. I will be part of it for as long as I am comfortable. Mr
:12:35. > :12:37.Macron has greeted a new Centre for he has described himself as neither
:12:38. > :12:43.right nor left. He wants to gather people who are on the centre, but
:12:44. > :12:47.the centre is a void. Maybe it has to be defined that way. Maybe it is
:12:48. > :12:54.something for the future. At the moment, it is not a clear ideology
:12:55. > :12:59.with the purpose, if you like, for the type of society that we want to
:13:00. > :13:04.live in and I think Hamon has been defining that. He has been talking
:13:05. > :13:08.about ecology, talking about the place of work within our lives and
:13:09. > :13:12.so on. He has asked the right questions. I am sure Mr Macron has
:13:13. > :13:17.done that. The question you are asking is in the second round, if it
:13:18. > :13:21.is against Marine Le Pen, of course I will vote for Mr Macron because
:13:22. > :13:26.from a social point of view, he is most compatible with me and
:13:27. > :13:31.certainly not Madame Le Pen. Good to get your thoughts. A big day for the
:13:32. > :13:35.expatriates. There are 1 million voters in the UK. They will go to
:13:36. > :13:42.the polls on Sunday and we will be watching what they do very closely.
:13:43. > :13:47.I love the tour of Paris. I am jealous. It looks like a fantastic
:13:48. > :13:51.evening. I can't imagine anyone will watch that long debate. Then you
:13:52. > :13:55.were huge pool of everybody living in Paris, have you found there is
:13:56. > :13:59.much excitement for Emmanuelle Macron. It seems we are living in a
:14:00. > :14:05.time when people want a bit of excitement about the candidate. Are
:14:06. > :14:08.you hearing about Macron? There are two things surprisingly today while
:14:09. > :14:13.I wandered around the left bank am one was that I spoke to be for the
:14:14. > :14:17.full knowledge, the taxi drivers. I have two or three taxis around town
:14:18. > :14:21.and all of them said they cannot believe Macron is so high in the
:14:22. > :14:26.polls. They say he is not really the outside candidate, he is the former
:14:27. > :14:30.economy ministry, he is a Rothschild banker. He is part of the
:14:31. > :14:35.establishment and he is very much Francois Hollande's candidate. The
:14:36. > :14:39.media have jumped on his bandwagon. He is a smart guy, he talks very
:14:40. > :14:42.well and he is up there I in the polls with a good chance to get
:14:43. > :14:46.through. The other thing which surprised me, and maybe that is
:14:47. > :14:50.because those on the left bank, is just how many people are talking
:14:51. > :14:54.about Melenchon and how he can defeat capitalism. It is a strange
:14:55. > :14:58.thing for British people and Americans to listen to, this idea
:14:59. > :15:02.that capitalism is a bad thing. Among many French people, they still
:15:03. > :15:08.think back to the banking crisis and what happened in 2007 and there is a
:15:09. > :15:11.suspicion about finance in this country. He talked to a lot of
:15:12. > :15:14.Marine Le Pen voters, a lot of Melenchon footers and they will say
:15:15. > :15:21.we are voting for them because we want to put down capitalism. After
:15:22. > :15:25.Brexit and the trump election here, all bets are off in terms of making
:15:26. > :15:29.predictions. We are living in a very interesting and unpredictable
:15:30. > :15:30.moment. The more from Paris in a moment.
:15:31. > :15:33.In the UK, the opposition Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn has
:15:34. > :15:36.made his first major campaign speech today, ahead of June's
:15:37. > :15:40.He says he wants to 'overturn the rigged system' by putting power
:15:41. > :15:42.and wealth back in the hands of 'the people', painting himself
:15:43. > :15:57.We don't accept that the British people just have to take what they
:15:58. > :16:00.are given, but they do not deserve better. In a sense, the
:16:01. > :16:06.establishment and their followers in the media are quite right, I do not
:16:07. > :16:09.play by their rules. And, if delivered -- Labour government is
:16:10. > :16:14.elected, we will not play by their rules either.
:16:15. > :16:19.What really strikes me as interesting about that, I have not
:16:20. > :16:23.been fully chewed into the UK election today, but listening to
:16:24. > :16:27.Jeremy Corbyn, I hear echoes of what I am hearing here in France and I
:16:28. > :16:31.think politicians who are under the cosh and under pressure are starting
:16:32. > :16:35.to steal ideas from the Donald Trump campaign. We heard Jeremy Corbyn
:16:36. > :16:39.talk about the news and how he is against the system and the
:16:40. > :16:45.establishment. Francois Fillon went into Le Monde newspaper and he was
:16:46. > :16:50.due to go with a sit down interview and he walked out of that interview.
:16:51. > :16:56.He said to them as a rock god, he said it is not the media that
:16:57. > :16:58.decides the questions. Imagine that. Potentially the next president of
:16:59. > :17:02.France Secci does not want to live in a country with the press are able
:17:03. > :17:09.to ask whatever questions they want. It is quite extraordinary. The media
:17:10. > :17:15.bashing, the theory of the fake media. Nigel Farage has said he is
:17:16. > :17:20.not going to run. He has decided that your times is not a chance. He
:17:21. > :17:21.has lost seven times, so he has decided he will not run again this
:17:22. > :17:29.time. We broke the news that Bill O'Reilly
:17:30. > :17:34.was being cut loose by 20th Century Fox. His departure marks a blow to
:17:35. > :17:39.the Conservative movement in America. Mr O'Reilly calls the
:17:40. > :17:42.charges against him by at least five women unfounded, but his employers
:17:43. > :17:43.have decided his huge ratings success does not justify the
:17:44. > :17:52.scandal. We have a contest on Bill O'Reilly
:17:53. > :17:58..com. Guess where Bill O'Reilly is common. Except Bill O'Reilly will
:17:59. > :18:03.not be coming back to Fox News where he was the biggest star for decades.
:18:04. > :18:07.Five women have come forward with claims of sexual harassment and the
:18:08. > :18:08.revelation the settled out of court by Bill O'Reilly, and Fox News ?10
:18:09. > :18:10.million. Earlier this week, one former
:18:11. > :18:12.colleague said the host regularly made passes at her when no one
:18:13. > :18:15.was watching and described When major sponsors started
:18:16. > :18:18.to pull their adverts, his position weakened further,
:18:19. > :18:20.and now the parent company, 21st Century Fox, has
:18:21. > :18:26.confirmed he's been fired. We are so happy he's gone and he's
:18:27. > :18:30.no longer able going to be able to spit all of his vile comments
:18:31. > :18:33.and everything that comes out of his mouth that's disparaging not
:18:34. > :18:36.only to women but specifically to black women and black
:18:37. > :18:39.folks all over the world. Last July, the boss of Fox News,
:18:40. > :18:41.Roger Ailes, resigned over allegations that he had sexually
:18:42. > :18:43.harassed female employees. Now the acting CEO, Rupert Murdoch,
:18:44. > :18:46.has made an attempt to usher in a new era at the channel
:18:47. > :18:54.by issuing an internal memo, also signed by his sons,
:18:55. > :18:56.saying that the staff are committed to fostering a work environment
:18:57. > :19:00.built on trust and respect, and this comes at a delicate time,
:19:01. > :19:03.with 21st Century Fox trying to buy the remaining 61%
:19:04. > :19:11.of Sky TV in the UK. Bill O'Reilly, who found out he'd
:19:12. > :19:14.lost his job on the same day he met the Pope,
:19:15. > :19:16.says that it's tremendously disheartening to leave Fox due
:19:17. > :19:20.to completely unfounded claims, but all across America
:19:21. > :19:24.he is the main talking point on exactly the type of show
:19:25. > :19:26.he used to host. Let's speak now to the media
:19:27. > :19:55.analyst Claire Enders, He has been a very significant
:19:56. > :20:00.revenue spinner for Fox News for a very long time. Responsible by all
:20:01. > :20:05.accounts for up to half $1 billion of advertising every single year. He
:20:06. > :20:16.has been very significant and the major opinion programmes on Fox
:20:17. > :20:23.News, in particular his, have been extraordinarily pro-Donald Trump.
:20:24. > :20:29.You could say that Rupert Murdoch graded Fox News in 1986 and that
:20:30. > :20:33.network created President trump. You think there was any morality in the
:20:34. > :20:36.Fox News decision to listen to what was it really all about money? Was
:20:37. > :20:41.it the younger Murdoch saying we do not want a news organisation with
:20:42. > :20:45.this cloud hanging over? I am certain that James Murdoch would
:20:46. > :20:52.have been angry about the accusations of sexual harassment.
:20:53. > :20:55.Last summer when Roger Ailes was on hold, it happened very quickly
:20:56. > :20:59.again. He appointed external counsel within a matter of days and he took
:21:00. > :21:05.action very fast against the founder of the network. As Sir Alex Ferguson
:21:06. > :21:09.once said, no player is bigger than the team and James Murdoch is making
:21:10. > :21:14.absolutely sure that the level of corporate governance standards at
:21:15. > :21:19.21st-century Fox is much higher than it has been and he is particularly
:21:20. > :21:23.vulnerable at this time because, of course, in 2012, of, found he had
:21:24. > :21:28.not behave with the highest standards of corporate governance
:21:29. > :21:33.and he is actually being investigated as we speak by off, and
:21:34. > :21:37.three separate crimes, but one of them is the fit and proper test. It
:21:38. > :21:40.is extraordinary and wooden Phrygians murder to succeed in
:21:41. > :21:44.acquiring Skype because, effectively, it is a second chance
:21:45. > :21:48.for him and it is extraordinarily important for his vision of the
:21:49. > :21:56.future of 21st-century Fox. Skype is a very significant business with 22
:21:57. > :21:57.million customers. We have delivered there. Thank you very much. Thank
:21:58. > :22:00.you for joining us. Nine years since the global
:22:01. > :22:02.financial crisis the head of the International Monetary Fund
:22:03. > :22:04.has given an upbeat assessment It's probably welcome news
:22:05. > :22:08.to Donald Trump on day 91 in office that Christine Lagarde says that
:22:09. > :22:11.strong growth is returning Our economics editor,
:22:12. > :22:18.Kamal Ahmed, has this report. Meet Matt Levatich -
:22:19. > :22:20.the man who runs, and rides, The all-American company that
:22:21. > :22:24.exports around the world. If things are going well
:22:25. > :22:28.for businesses like this, then that is a signal
:22:29. > :22:31.that the global economy is set fair. I asked Mr Levatich if the economy
:22:32. > :22:36.is indeed looking up. When people feel more confident,
:22:37. > :22:41.then they're willing to make, if you will, financial risks
:22:42. > :22:44.of investing in something, improving their home,
:22:45. > :22:47.buying a motorcycle. When they feel really uncertain,
:22:48. > :22:51.they pull back and they wait. And so the election and so forth has
:22:52. > :22:58.helped people feel more optimism. Running more smoothly
:22:59. > :23:02.at Harley, and for the US. The official IMF forecasts have
:23:03. > :23:10.certainly made for better reading, although they have
:23:11. > :23:13.been wrong before. And for the head of the world's
:23:14. > :23:15.leading financial organisation, We are forecasting
:23:16. > :23:23.growth in 2017 at 3.5%. And that's a significant
:23:24. > :23:30.uptake from 2016. But we need to make sure that this
:23:31. > :23:41.momentum is sustained. When you come to a company
:23:42. > :23:43.like Harley-Davidson, you are immediately struck,
:23:44. > :23:46.not just by the size of the factory, Yes, some of that is down
:23:47. > :23:51.to the presidential election. But a lot of it is down to the
:23:52. > :23:56.return of global economic growth. A return so marked, some
:23:57. > :23:58.are arguing, that ten years after the financial crisis,
:23:59. > :24:01.the global economy has It is not just the makers
:24:02. > :24:27.of big American bikes that Like so many American firms, they
:24:28. > :24:36.are waiting to see if the better economic news is here to stay. We
:24:37. > :24:40.sought Melenchon on his barge yesterday, he should have taken a
:24:41. > :24:43.Harley-Davidson. Before you go, I want to show you something that has
:24:44. > :24:47.been getting a lot of attention on social media. This is an official
:24:48. > :24:51.photograph released by the White House of Donald Trump and some
:24:52. > :24:56.visitors you will recognise. That is Sarah Palin. She also has two
:24:57. > :25:02.friends with, Ted Nugent and kid Rock Salt and get this photograph
:25:03. > :25:05.therapy and put on her Facebook page, also taken in the White House
:25:06. > :25:12.in front of the official portrait of the former first lady is, Hillary
:25:13. > :25:15.Clinton. This is shocking in America because there is a reference
:25:16. > :25:20.surrounding former first lady sent former presidents. It is like the
:25:21. > :25:26.Buckingham Palace and having a laugh against a portrait of Prince
:25:27. > :25:30.Charles. You just don't do it. I am not sure that is reverence,
:25:31. > :25:31.especially when we know what is behind it. She will probably get
:25:32. > :25:34.told off on social media. You're watching One Hundred
:25:35. > :25:40.Days from BBC News. I'm Christian Fraser, live in Paris,
:25:41. > :25:42.where the 11 candidates for the French presidential election
:25:43. > :25:45.will take to the stage in the next few minutes in the final set-piece
:25:46. > :25:54.televised encounter of the campaign. We will hear from the man who said
:25:55. > :26:00.Donald Trump would win and is now predicting Marine Le Pen will win.
:26:01. > :26:02.One protester arrested arrested in Venezuela. We will have that in the
:26:03. > :26:15.programme. Good evening. Beautiful sunshine
:26:16. > :26:20.across north-eastern England today and the north-east of Scotland. The
:26:21. > :26:27.east coast of Scotland had the highest temperature, nearly 19
:26:28. > :26:32.degrees. This was relatively bright here. For the most part it was dry.
:26:33. > :26:35.We had a future was from this cloud which develops and moved southwards
:26:36. > :26:39.through the day. This line of cold across Scotland is developing
:26:40. > :26:44.weather front as well. That would take centre stage in the next 48
:26:45. > :26:47.hours because it is behind that introduce the colder air. Under
:26:48. > :26:51.clearing skies in the south it would be a tad chilly overnight with towns
:26:52. > :26:56.and cities will hold double figures. It will turn misty with four in
:26:57. > :26:59.Southern counties with the extra moisture from the cloud that we saw.
:27:00. > :27:02.Further north, the weather front is with us through the day. Not just
:27:03. > :27:07.rain but potentially deal force winds. That's because the details.
:27:08. > :27:10.It doesn't look particularly pleasant for the morning rush across
:27:11. > :27:16.Scotland. There will be good breaks of cloud sunshine East of the
:27:17. > :27:19.Pennines to start the day, that cloud is heading south. Northern
:27:20. > :27:23.Ireland is cloudy and breezy. Further south we have quite a bit of
:27:24. > :27:27.cold, mist and fog to get rid of it is a promising day. It should be
:27:28. > :27:32.gradually try and bright with increasing amounts of sun is that it
:27:33. > :27:35.was on. In that case, for most of us staying dry by the occasional
:27:36. > :27:42.shower, we might see temperatures getting up to 14 or 16 again. That
:27:43. > :27:45.is the likelihood in the south. Were fired 17 or 18 today, it will be
:27:46. > :27:49.significantly colder, even if it brightens up because we have a
:27:50. > :27:53.change in wind direction. That weather front pushes its way south
:27:54. > :27:57.through Friday night and into Saturday. It is picking up the
:27:58. > :28:00.Saturday morning. We have the north-westerly wind setting in that
:28:01. > :28:03.it is brighter in the north Finland and Northern Ireland, there will be
:28:04. > :28:08.some showers. Further south there is more cold again. With sunshine
:28:09. > :28:13.together we will see 14 to 16 Celsius. It is notably called to the
:28:14. > :28:17.north. It is a wicked weather front because the high pressure is close
:28:18. > :28:21.by. The changes subtly across the north-west later on Sunday with
:28:22. > :28:26.windier, wetter weather to enter the begin. For the majority, it looks as
:28:27. > :28:29.if it was the dry, bright and not too bad temperature rise into
:28:30. > :30:06.Sunday, especially with the strength of the sun this time of year.
:30:07. > :30:09.Welcome back to 100 Days, with me Katty Kay in Washington,
:30:10. > :30:18.The scene is set - 11 candidates for the French Presidency get ready
:30:19. > :30:20.to appear on national television to sell their vision
:30:21. > :30:27.And we catch up with Trump voter - college student Tylar Martin.
:30:28. > :30:40.Three months into his presidency, is he living up to her expectations?
:30:41. > :30:43.As we've been discussing throughout the programme -
:30:44. > :30:46.this weekend the voters of France go to the polls in one of the most
:30:47. > :30:49.unpredictable elections the country has seen in decades.
:30:50. > :30:51.After Sunday there will be just two candidates left standing
:30:52. > :30:55.and for more on how things are shaping up we can cross again
:30:56. > :31:13.With me now is Bruno Jeanbart - who runs the polling
:31:14. > :31:25.organisation OpinionWay, and the physicist Serge Galam.
:31:26. > :31:37.You're one of the few people who predicted Trump would win. What is
:31:38. > :31:44.the latest with the polls? We're predicting Macron winning the waist
:31:45. > :31:52.with about 23% Fillon is at 20. The far left leader at it man 19. Only
:31:53. > :31:58.two will qualify. It is not the same for the second run. But for the
:31:59. > :32:04.moment we are expecting who will qualify on Sunday. Amazing that
:32:05. > :32:10.Francois Fillon has hung on so long. The real phenomenon for me of this
:32:11. > :32:13.election is that when you look at Brexit it was older people in
:32:14. > :32:17.Britain who wanted to come out of Europe, here it is younger people
:32:18. > :32:21.who are voting for Marine Le Pen who has the anti-Europe agenda. And
:32:22. > :32:26.older people want to stay in the Eurozone. It is because they are the
:32:27. > :32:35.people who have the most savings in the country and they are worried
:32:36. > :32:41.about that. The young people are protesting by voting for Marine Le
:32:42. > :32:47.Pen. They are not all voting from Marine Le Pen. The students are
:32:48. > :32:53.voting for the left. But we have 25% unemployment for young people. These
:32:54. > :33:01.people are voting for the National front. Taking that into account, if
:33:02. > :33:08.you put Marine Le Pen in the second poke round, all the polls was a she
:33:09. > :33:14.loses. You say she can win. When I use my modelling which allowed me to
:33:15. > :33:19.predict Trump, I also get Marine Le Pen losing. However, what is very
:33:20. > :33:28.new today is the fact that in order to implement what has been chord the
:33:29. > :33:33.Republican front, people have to do vote against for the challenger. But
:33:34. > :33:37.this time for many people to vote for the challenger is going to be
:33:38. > :33:46.rather high, if it will be Macron Fillon or Melenchon, we have a
:33:47. > :33:50.substantial section of voters who have an aversion to all of those.
:33:51. > :33:55.There will be a strong dilemma, on the one hand they want to oppose
:33:56. > :34:00.Marine Le Pen on the other, they would have to do to swallow a hugely
:34:01. > :34:06.bitter pearl. The point is, on the day any excuse would be good to stay
:34:07. > :34:11.home and forget to vote. So you are saying her vote is Woakes solid, if
:34:12. > :34:17.she gets hers out, the others have to do, and if everyone abstains she
:34:18. > :34:22.might get in. But people are saying they will vote against her. But will
:34:23. > :34:28.they? This is the question. Using the simply mathematical formula I
:34:29. > :34:35.can calculate the situation I can give you an illustration. In case
:34:36. > :34:38.she has voting intention of 42%, the challenge challenger, 58, normally
:34:39. > :34:43.she would totally lose will stop but with 90% turnout for her and only
:34:44. > :34:51.65% for the challenger, she would win the election with 50.07%. This
:34:52. > :34:59.is just one illustration. It is enough to have a discrepancy of
:35:00. > :35:04.around 20% to compensate six, seven, 8% missing to win the election. Your
:35:05. > :35:08.maths looks really complicated, but I will take your word for it because
:35:09. > :35:18.you got it right last time. Do you think you gets it right? No. The
:35:19. > :35:26.pollsters are really interested... In 2012, they got it pretty much
:35:27. > :35:31.right. She got about 16% and at about 17. It shows you how far she
:35:32. > :35:36.has come now. They did all right last time.
:35:37. > :35:42.In last election here in the United States we heard about secret Trump
:35:43. > :35:43.vote, I'm beginning to wonder if there is a secret Le Pen voter as
:35:44. > :35:44.well. The Venezuelan opposition
:35:45. > :35:46.is promising to keep up pressure on President Maduro by planning
:35:47. > :35:48.more protests today, The demonstrations took
:35:49. > :35:52.a deadly turn on Wednesday when three people were killed,
:35:53. > :35:56.including a teenager. The nationwide protests have been
:35:57. > :35:59.dubbed "the mother of all marches". These pictures came into us
:36:00. > :36:02.from Caracas a short time ago - as you can see there's a big crowd
:36:03. > :36:05.walking through the capital and, You can see police firing tear gas
:36:06. > :36:12.canisters at the protesters. Joining us now to discuss
:36:13. > :36:15.the unrest is Eric Farnsworth, Vice President of the Council
:36:16. > :36:23.of the Americas. What do these protesters think they
:36:24. > :36:27.can achieve in Venezuela? I think that is a good question. What is it
:36:28. > :36:32.they are asking for? They are asking for the Government to simply listen
:36:33. > :36:37.to their demands which is to say loosen up the economy to allow food
:36:38. > :36:43.to be imported once again, to restore the health care system, to
:36:44. > :36:45.restore security on the streets, to change the education system. These
:36:46. > :36:49.are big demands and the reason they are not being listened to in any
:36:50. > :36:52.meaningful way is they are the result of the model that the
:36:53. > :36:57.Government has in place and does not seem to be able to change -- willing
:36:58. > :37:07.to change. The way for red is an electoral process. Yesterday General
:37:08. > :37:09.Motors plant in Venezuelan, an American plant, was basically
:37:10. > :37:13.requisitioned by the Venezuelan Government, a bunch of vehicles were
:37:14. > :37:17.taken in the process. That seems to be what despots do when they are
:37:18. > :37:24.feeling desperate, they turn against foreigners and foreign entities. Are
:37:25. > :37:27.they feeling the pressure? I think he is feeling increased pressure
:37:28. > :37:33.from the international community and his own citizens. This was a
:37:34. > :37:36.one-time thing. This is what people in Venezuela have done for a long
:37:37. > :37:41.time, nationalising foreign companies, domestic companies, a
:37:42. > :37:46.full-scale assault on the private sector. This is a concern in terms
:37:47. > :37:54.of the recovery of the country, if and when there is an opportunity to
:37:55. > :37:57.do that, the energy sector which energy Venezuelan relies on will not
:37:58. > :38:00.be sufficient. You need a vibrant unproductive time private sector
:38:01. > :38:04.which has been strangled by the Government. This is the continuation
:38:05. > :38:09.of clearly an approach they have used for over 17 years and it is
:38:10. > :38:13.very worrisome. I would imagine the sort of things will continue because
:38:14. > :38:17.you are right, the Government is consolidating its power and it is
:38:18. > :38:20.radicalising and it is unclear it where it wants to go from here. We
:38:21. > :38:21.will watch how those demonstrations continue.
:38:22. > :38:25.At the end of each week we like to check in with voters
:38:26. > :38:31.on how the President is doing. for Donald Trump, to get their view
:38:32. > :38:34.I first met college student Taylar Martin in December of 2015,
:38:35. > :38:39.and this is how she described candidate Trump.
:38:40. > :38:45.Passionate, driven, confident. Motivated. You are studying
:38:46. > :38:51.international business. That is his sweet spot. Is that part of the
:38:52. > :38:53.appeal? He's very successful as a businessman so I'd like to see how
:38:54. > :38:55.as the leader of the United States. So, how is he doing now
:38:56. > :39:04.on day 91 in office? Thank you for coming in. I know you
:39:05. > :39:11.have exams coming up. How is he doing? I'm really pleased overall.
:39:12. > :39:14.As the biggest setback so far has been health care reform. Otherwise I
:39:15. > :39:21.think he is aggressively trying to fulfil campaign processes --
:39:22. > :39:26.promises. One of the things you are interested in is the American
:39:27. > :39:30.economy and how he performs in that. How has he done? So far I think he
:39:31. > :39:35.has really been trying to pass legislation in order to bring jobs
:39:36. > :39:41.back to America. What kind of legislation are you thinking of? The
:39:42. > :39:48.TPP, withdrawing from that. I am glad he did that. And also just
:39:49. > :39:56.recently he reached out to the people in trying to... What you
:39:57. > :40:02.think happened on health care? Why do you think he didn't manage to get
:40:03. > :40:06.health care reform through? He said it was one thing he said he would do
:40:07. > :40:11.during the campaign. I think there is too much division between
:40:12. > :40:15.Republicans and Democrats in Congress. They can't work past it.
:40:16. > :40:21.They aren't able to fully pass something that is beneficial to all.
:40:22. > :40:24.What else do you want him to do in terms of legislation, changing
:40:25. > :40:29.things, to getting Congress to work with him, what you want see happen
:40:30. > :40:36.next? I think the bombings in Syria were a good start. Honestly, because
:40:37. > :40:39.they set the standard that if, because Syria agreed not to use
:40:40. > :40:43.chemical warfare, because if you break these promises there will be
:40:44. > :40:46.repercussions will stop is addressing you say that, because a
:40:47. > :40:49.lot of people who voted for President Trump did so thinking he
:40:50. > :40:53.would not get involved in other conflicts in the Middle East.
:40:54. > :40:59.Doesn't it bother you this is a president who might be more
:41:00. > :41:03.interventionist than he suggested? I think overall he will do what he
:41:04. > :41:08.thinks is right for the US. In setting that standards, the videos
:41:09. > :41:13.were heart breaking so I think it had from his heartstrings. I know
:41:14. > :41:17.you did not want to tell friends of yours that you were voting for Trump
:41:18. > :41:23.during the campaign. Do unique now feel happy to say you voted for him?
:41:24. > :41:27.It is what it is when you go on the BBC. Everyone knows what your
:41:28. > :41:29.opinions are. I think I've lost some friends that way. But it is what I
:41:30. > :41:39.believe. Thank you for coming in. Is interesting is in it that you
:41:40. > :41:42.hear someone like her, who didn't want to tell her friends she was
:41:43. > :41:45.voted the Donald Trump, but is clearly happy with the direction he
:41:46. > :41:52.is taking. Particularly on the economic front. Very interesting.
:41:53. > :41:57.And of course it applies here in France. But we don't know where
:41:58. > :42:00.those shy voters will go. One in four are either undecided or will
:42:01. > :42:05.change their minds once they get into the box, which is why with
:42:06. > :42:08.those 11 candidates on the television tonight they will be
:42:09. > :42:12.hoping to squeeze another few thousand votes out of the system.
:42:13. > :42:17.You lived in Paris and when you live there the National front had a
:42:18. > :42:20.different image. Going back now, do you get the impression the French
:42:21. > :42:32.believe the party has changed under Marine Le Pen? No doubt. I was here
:42:33. > :42:36.in 2012 when she became the leader. Under her father it was very
:42:37. > :42:41.different. Though she has softened the party. The DNA of the party,
:42:42. > :42:45.some say, is very much the same, but she has softened it. That is why you
:42:46. > :42:58.see young people on campus is up and down the country prepared to vote
:42:59. > :43:01.for her. Waddle were surprises me,. -- the French want a different
:43:02. > :43:04.system to the one they have at the moment.