31/05/2017

:00:54. > :00:57.Welcome to the historic city of Cambridge where in just half

:00:58. > :01:00.an hour seven political parties will take part in a

:01:01. > :01:09.We're live in the spin room at the Cambridge Union -

:01:10. > :01:18.and we're counting down to the start of the BBC Election Debate 2017.

:01:19. > :01:20.On a glorious and sunny evening in Cambridge.

:01:21. > :01:22.The historic setting of the Senate House

:01:23. > :01:25.at the University of Cambridge is the venue for this special event

:01:26. > :01:37.And here on the BBC News Channel we'll bring you every moment.

:01:38. > :01:39.Including all the reaction from the spin room afterwards.

:01:40. > :01:42.Inside the venue the stage is set after several days of preparation.

:01:43. > :01:46.The neo-classical hall normally used for Graduation ceremonies will host

:01:47. > :01:49.a mixture of party leaders and senior politicians

:01:50. > :01:52.from the Conservatives, Labour, Liberal Democrats,

:01:53. > :02:05.SNP, UKIP, Plaid Cymru, and the Greens.

:02:06. > :02:13.Jeremy Corbyn's last-minute decision to take part was unexpected -

:02:14. > :02:24.he made that call at lunchtime - challenging Theresa May to join him.

:02:25. > :02:27.The Prime Minister - visiting the West Country today -

:02:28. > :02:33.said she preferred to be meeting voters on the campaign trail.

:02:34. > :02:37.And that she would stick to her guns and not take part in that Cambridge

:02:38. > :02:53.debate this evening. Net Security in Afghanistan has

:02:54. > :02:58.worsened significantly since Nato and it is combination in 2014 and

:02:59. > :03:01.British troops pulled out of Helmand. In the first three months

:03:02. > :03:04.of this year and, more than 700 civilians were killed in attacks.

:03:05. > :03:10.American commanders now won thousands of extra troops to help

:03:11. > :03:14.strengthen Afghan forces. Of Donald Trump agrees to this, Britain could

:03:15. > :03:18.also bolster its 500 strong presence. It's still not clear what

:03:19. > :03:23.the exact target was of this devastating bomb, or who was behind

:03:24. > :03:26.it. The Taliban, who had been gaining ground from government

:03:27. > :03:33.forces, have denied involvement in one of the worst attacks that Kabul

:03:34. > :03:39.has ever seen. At the BBC we are all remembering

:03:40. > :03:43.Mohammed Nazir and his family. Joining me to discuss the bombing is

:03:44. > :03:49.the former ambassador to Afghanistan. Commiserations on your

:03:50. > :03:51.home country, too. It looks like this was not Islamic State that

:03:52. > :03:59.launched this attack. Some part of the Taliban or perhaps the network,

:04:00. > :04:07.what do you read into who did this? The Afghan intelligence have issued

:04:08. > :04:13.a statement that alleges that a network carried out the attack. If

:04:14. > :04:18.this turns out to be correct, given the close connection between the

:04:19. > :04:33.network in Pakistan, it raises very serious questions about the policy

:04:34. > :04:38.towards Pakistan. With this attack which we the United States, because

:04:39. > :04:43.it is a terror group and on our list of terror groups, the issue comes

:04:44. > :04:48.with what needs to be done. This is really a quantitative chain. The

:04:49. > :04:54.numbers are horrific. The size of the bomb is enormous. Maybe 400 plus

:04:55. > :05:01.wounded, and I'm sure that the death toll will go up. That raises the

:05:02. > :05:06.issue of can we continue approaching Pakistan on the network issue the

:05:07. > :05:09.way we have, or is there a need for a new approach. I think this would

:05:10. > :05:18.be one of the issues that the Trump administration, which is reviewing

:05:19. > :05:22.its policy, will have to with. The President is wearing at the moment

:05:23. > :05:26.whether to send another 3-5000 troops to join those already there.

:05:27. > :05:32.How much impact would that have on what Caroline was talking about, the

:05:33. > :05:36.gradual deterioration in this country leading up to this? I think

:05:37. > :05:41.the number of troops that are to be sent, the commanders have asked for

:05:42. > :05:44.those, it is to prevent the worsening of the situation. It will

:05:45. > :05:51.not bring about victory, but it will prevent the situation from getting

:05:52. > :05:55.worse, two in a sense prevent the worsening. Could prevent something

:05:56. > :06:02.like this? No, we're talking overall. That happens in the context

:06:03. > :06:06.of the worsening military situation which would suffer huge withdrawal

:06:07. > :06:09.of the number of foreign troops. The Afghans have been taking

:06:10. > :06:12.responsibility for the war. They are taking lots of casualties in the

:06:13. > :06:15.Taliban would like to break the force. The that hasn't been broken

:06:16. > :06:20.but it needs, according to our military leader, somehow. I think

:06:21. > :06:24.that is important. What's important is to deal with the issue of

:06:25. > :06:28.centuries now. Given what has happened. As long as there is a safe

:06:29. > :06:32.haven across the border in Pakistan, this will take a long time to do. He

:06:33. > :06:38.said it was time for America to perhaps review its relationship with

:06:39. > :06:46.Pakistan and how it deals with the network. What are you thinking of

:06:47. > :06:49.needs to change? What I think is we need to put more negative pressure

:06:50. > :06:59.and Pakistan. But also more positive incentives be provided. More pain,

:07:00. > :07:02.more game. Both because what we've done so far, incremental

:07:03. > :07:05.engagements, sometimes pressure has not produced results. If we send

:07:06. > :07:13.more troops, we need to some diplomats to engage and to find a

:07:14. > :07:19.settlement of the Afghan Pakistan issues that lead to sanctuary, which

:07:20. > :07:24.must and -- which lead to sanctions. We are already looking at the

:07:25. > :07:26.longest war in American history. Thank you very much and

:07:27. > :07:27.commiserations to the people of Afghanistan and in Kabul this

:07:28. > :07:32.morning. Multiple American press reports say

:07:33. > :07:34.Donald Trump is on the verge of pulling the US out

:07:35. > :07:37.of the Paris climate agreement. The President himself

:07:38. > :07:38.says he'll decide when Behind the scenes White House staff

:07:39. > :07:42.hint that he could still So until the formal decision

:07:43. > :07:46.we are on hold, on what could be one of Mr Trump's most consequential

:07:47. > :07:48.acts as President. "I will be announcing my decision

:07:49. > :07:52.on the Paris Accord So we wait, but as we do

:07:53. > :07:58.so it is worth looking at what US withdrawal would mean

:07:59. > :08:00.both for climate change Joining us now from New York

:08:01. > :08:04.is Christine Todd Whitman, who served as head of

:08:05. > :08:21.the Environmental Protection Agency How serious would it be if America

:08:22. > :08:27.pulled out of the accord? First of all, it's a little bit like the way

:08:28. > :08:45.we disengage. They've been doing a lot of them

:08:46. > :08:49.back on environmental regulations. But how he does it and whether he

:08:50. > :08:56.puts any language in that allows for some wiggle room, I think will tell

:08:57. > :08:59.a big story. We can no longer be at the table when these issues are

:09:00. > :09:03.discussed. And if we think we need to have a voice here to talk about

:09:04. > :09:07.what is a terribly important issue for the rest of the world, we're not

:09:08. > :09:11.going to be there. And it's also frankly an economic disadvantage to

:09:12. > :09:14.companies because they have to function in the real world. And

:09:15. > :09:18.frankly, the good news for the environment, is you have still

:09:19. > :09:22.almost 200 countries, even if the United States dropped the accord and

:09:23. > :09:25.their participation, who have made commitments. Hopefully they will go

:09:26. > :09:31.ahead and they will stay. That Abebe Bikila. You've written about the

:09:32. > :09:36.risk of the country stepping in. -- that will be the big key. I don't

:09:37. > :09:40.know if it is coincidence, but yesterday the Indian Prime Minister

:09:41. > :09:43.went to Berlin to meet Angela Merkel and today the Chinese Prime Minister

:09:44. > :09:47.went to Berlin to meet Angela Merkel. They are talking about the

:09:48. > :09:50.issue of climate change. What happens to the vacuum that is

:09:51. > :09:57.created if America withdraws on this particular issue? Nature hates a

:09:58. > :10:03.vacuum, and others fulfil it. We will not be there and it will be a

:10:04. > :10:07.detriment to our ability to innovate and be the head of technology the

:10:08. > :10:10.way we have been passed. It's harmful for the world and to the

:10:11. > :10:14.United States because of the consequences of climate change.

:10:15. > :10:17.We've got to understand we're not going to stop it, but the whole

:10:18. > :10:20.purpose is to slow the rate of change to a point where we can

:10:21. > :10:23.figure out how to deal with it. We've got to learn how to

:10:24. > :10:27.accommodate it, and we could possibly roll it back that would be

:10:28. > :10:31.great. The win going to stop it because the world has changed and so

:10:32. > :10:36.has the climate since it was formed. -- were not going to stop it because

:10:37. > :10:38.the world has changed. We're driving nature to a point where it can no

:10:39. > :10:44.longer accommodate and handle the amount we are pumping into the

:10:45. > :10:48.atmosphere. Frankly for the United States and for Europe, this is very

:10:49. > :10:51.destabilising. It is a national security issue because of what

:10:52. > :10:58.happened when you have severe droughts, for instance, in the sub

:10:59. > :11:02.Sahara. And already populations are nomadic, they can no longer keep

:11:03. > :11:04.their herds going, there is no water. They're moving into towns and

:11:05. > :11:09.cities where there are no jobs for them, nobody is prepared for them,

:11:10. > :11:16.and they'll prime recruiting areas for the Taliban and four Isis. This

:11:17. > :11:21.has ramifications well beyond the Sea level rise above the east coast

:11:22. > :11:24.of the Arctic. How concerned are you that other countries, if America

:11:25. > :11:29.does pull out this week, and we are still waiting for the President's

:11:30. > :11:31.final decision, how concerned are you that other countries might on

:11:32. > :11:36.their own emissions targets as a result? Actually, I'm not that

:11:37. > :11:41.concerned because frankly the ship has left the harbour. We're already

:11:42. > :11:45.doing a lot of this country not to any regular Tory demands or owner of

:11:46. > :11:50.burdens put on companies, but companies have figured out this is

:11:51. > :11:56.what works. -- not to any regular Tory demands. It's good for the

:11:57. > :12:05.environment and I've already doing it. Utilities are investing in green

:12:06. > :12:09.power and renewable power, or nuclear. Nuclear is starting to drop

:12:10. > :12:14.off the table. But from Trump if he wants to have jobs, to promote

:12:15. > :12:16.nuclear is a big job creator as a hiatus until the renewables are

:12:17. > :12:22.ready to become based power. You said earlier that climate change is

:12:23. > :12:26.caused by human activity, human activity influences climate change.

:12:27. > :12:31.It's not clear that the White House agrees with you and believe that.

:12:32. > :12:36.How dangerous is that? To me, that's very dangerous. Because what that's

:12:37. > :12:41.doing is denying science. In Sinai the vast majority of scientistss.

:12:42. > :12:45.You have over 70% of scientists who are saying humans are having an

:12:46. > :12:48.impact. You could argue that environmentalists made a mistake at

:12:49. > :12:54.the beginning by saying human caused climate change, because we don't. We

:12:55. > :12:57.exacerbate a natural phenomenon. By overlooking the nuance, it gives

:12:58. > :13:01.people a way to escape and say we don't have a role, and there is much

:13:02. > :13:05.more we need to know. Frankly, there is more we need to know. That's why

:13:06. > :13:08.it's so important we continue our investment in science and basic

:13:09. > :13:12.research. There is more we need to know as we deal with the

:13:13. > :13:16.consequences. But we know what those consequences will be because

:13:17. > :13:21.scientists will tell you, ever increasing storms, severity, it's

:13:22. > :13:24.going to be a real problem in real-world terms for people when you

:13:25. > :13:29.have flooding and have to move populations. When you have two

:13:30. > :13:34.repair damage. This is something that has real economic consequences

:13:35. > :13:35.as well as security implications. Thank you very much for joining the

:13:36. > :13:36.programme. And with me again today

:13:37. > :13:38.is our political analyst Ron Christie, who formerly worked

:13:39. > :13:50.in the administration I should have pointed out, Christie

:13:51. > :13:54.is a Republican who served in the same administration that you did.

:13:55. > :13:59.But clearly she does not agree with what the President, according to the

:14:00. > :14:02.ports, is planning to do. There is a big rift in the Republican party as

:14:03. > :14:05.to whether or not we should be investing in climate change

:14:06. > :14:09.research, whether or not this is real. But I look at this and think

:14:10. > :14:14.it's fascinating. Donald Trump received a letter from 22 US

:14:15. > :14:17.senators who said, Mr President, pull out of this accord. One of the

:14:18. > :14:21.reasons they said we should pull out because they believe this is a

:14:22. > :14:24.treaty that should go to the United States Senate and be ratified or

:14:25. > :14:28.rejected by the Senate. Then you have people like Governor Whitman

:14:29. > :14:34.who were fleeing the United States has to be before. White and various

:14:35. > :14:38.big American companies, including American oil company. ExxonMobil is

:14:39. > :14:41.at the top of the list. Our Secretary of State is very much in

:14:42. > :14:45.favour of us staying in the accord. What the President needs to do is

:14:46. > :14:51.wait whether or not this is a treaty versus how does he continue to

:14:52. > :14:55.liaise with our allies abroad. This is important to our European allies.

:14:56. > :15:00.Is there a way he can appease his Republican base at home, while at

:15:01. > :15:05.the same time keeping his European allies. How important is this? This

:15:06. > :15:09.is huge. This is one of the store will promises he made. He said he

:15:10. > :15:12.was going to pull out of some of the agreements, like the Paris

:15:13. > :15:17.crumb-macro agreement. This is the first and foremost point of attack

:15:18. > :15:21.that he wants to go after. Certainly because he doesn't want America tied

:15:22. > :15:22.by international agreements. He doesn't like big international

:15:23. > :15:22.treaties. Donald Trump's former national

:15:23. > :15:24.security advisor Michael Flynn will reportedly be turning over some

:15:25. > :15:27.of the documents that the Senate Intelligence Committee was seeking

:15:28. > :15:32.in their probe into Russian interference during

:15:33. > :15:33.the presidential election. It comes as the inquiry widens

:15:34. > :15:36.and more people are being asked to provide documents or information

:15:37. > :15:38.pertinent to the investigation. Ron Christie has a bit of experience

:15:39. > :15:55.with these matters and luckily Why on earth would you not cooperate

:15:56. > :15:59.with an investigation on this scale? Precisely. In politics I perception

:16:00. > :16:03.is reality. There is a perception out there that if you have documents

:16:04. > :16:06.and you're not turning them over, you're not cooperate, you might have

:16:07. > :16:10.something to hide. In America we have our fifth Amendment against

:16:11. > :16:19.self-incrimination. Perhaps these say that from a political point of

:16:20. > :16:24.view, it looks terrible. Jack Abramoff, a disgraced lobbyist, he

:16:25. > :16:34.had forged billing records. They claimed that Ronald and Dick Cheney

:16:35. > :16:40.had half an forged document. What I didn't know we have got to a dodgy

:16:41. > :16:45.guest. -- maybe not the guy I thought you were! I have to tell

:16:46. > :16:49.you, it's a very daunting process. You're sitting in a room, you're

:16:50. > :16:52.flanked by lawyers representing the White House. On the other side there

:16:53. > :16:56.were lawyers representing Capitol Hill. If you have nothing to hide,

:16:57. > :17:01.you have nothing to worry about. It's very intimidating being in that

:17:02. > :17:05.setting. I went through it. I fully cooperated. There was nothing there.

:17:06. > :17:08.I would encourage others involved to do the same. You heard it here, if

:17:09. > :17:12.you are not cooperating, perhaps you should.

:17:13. > :17:15.Now, it's usually what spokes people do say which gets us talking,

:17:16. > :17:17.but it was the pause at yesterday's State Department which

:17:18. > :17:20.This was Acting Assistant Secretary Stuart Jones when asked

:17:21. > :17:35.You characterise Saudi Arabia's commitment to democracy? Do you

:17:36. > :17:56.agree it is a barrier against extremism? Um...

:17:57. > :18:01.I think what I would say is that... At this meeting... We were able to

:18:02. > :18:14.make significant progress. Why have they sent Stuart Jones out

:18:15. > :18:17.there without an answer about democracy in Saudi Arabia when they

:18:18. > :18:21.have just come back from a trip to Saudi Arabia? First and foremost,

:18:22. > :18:24.there is a reason why he is the acting assistant secretary. If

:18:25. > :18:27.you're coming back from Saudi Arabia, you can't and do something

:18:28. > :18:31.that fundamental and basic to the region of the world, why are you

:18:32. > :18:36.taking the podium? And most importantly, why can't you think of

:18:37. > :18:42.an answer in 20 seconds. 20 seconds! This should be a no-brainer for him.

:18:43. > :18:46.He should have a fluid answer. What else can you say? I'm not going to

:18:47. > :18:47.pause for 20 seconds, I'm going to move swiftly on to the British

:18:48. > :18:47.election. Here's what usually happens

:18:48. > :18:51.in political debates - the opposing candidates get up

:18:52. > :18:54.on the stage and have AT it, while the confused viewers

:18:55. > :18:57.try to figure out who to vote for. But in the UK tonight,

:18:58. > :18:59.the leading candidate won't be The Conservative leader

:19:00. > :19:02.is sending a representative - though the Labour leader did a last

:19:03. > :19:12.minute about turn and There is a debate in Cambridge

:19:13. > :19:17.tonight. I don't know what she's doing this evening, but it's not far

:19:18. > :19:21.from London. I invite her to go to Cambridge and debate her policies,

:19:22. > :19:29.debate her record, debate their plans, debate their proposals, and

:19:30. > :19:34.let the public make up their minds. Public scrutiny is a very important

:19:35. > :19:37.part of any election campaign. He is now up for a head to head debate.

:19:38. > :19:42.Doesn't it suggest you're frightened of taking him on directly if you

:19:43. > :19:47.don't go, to? First of all, I've been taking

:19:48. > :19:50.Jeremy Corbyn on directly week in, week out on Prime Minister's

:19:51. > :19:51.question. She says she was too busy talking to

:19:52. > :19:54.voters to take place in the debate. The debate is taking

:19:55. > :19:55.place in Cambridge. The BBC's Adam Fleming

:19:56. > :20:08.is there and joins us How does this play for Mrs May and

:20:09. > :20:12.Mr Corbyn, the fact that he will be there after all? It means that

:20:13. > :20:16.Jeremy Corbyn, the Leader of the Opposition Labour Party here in the

:20:17. > :20:20.UK, has won the Prix game just by turning up. All the talk amongst the

:20:21. > :20:26.journalist here in the spin room is about how he has electrified the

:20:27. > :20:28.debate just by showing up. Actually winning the debate when he's up

:20:29. > :20:32.against six other people under the pressure of time and the pressure of

:20:33. > :20:36.questions from the audience, that is quite another matter. When it comes

:20:37. > :20:41.to be Prime Minister Theresa May, the reaction on social media with

:20:42. > :20:49.hashtags like, "May is scared" training at the moment, suggest that

:20:50. > :20:53.social media users she has made a boo-boo by not turning up. That is

:20:54. > :20:59.social media, not the electorate as a whole. The fact that Theresa May

:21:00. > :21:02.is not turning up tonight will sway virtually no one's vote when it

:21:03. > :21:06.comes to the big decision on the 8th of June. That is the message being

:21:07. > :21:09.delivered by members of the Cabinet who are the spin into my telling

:21:10. > :21:15.journalists what to think ahead of the debate. A bit of a boo-boo!

:21:16. > :21:18.Here's the latest YouGov election model - making some news today.

:21:19. > :21:19.It still predicts the Conservative Party winning,

:21:20. > :21:26.If this is accurate, the Conservatives could end up

:21:27. > :21:28.with 310 seats - that's 20 less than they have today,

:21:29. > :21:31.and 16 less than they need for an overall majority.

:21:32. > :21:33.The model suggests the vote could lead to a hung parliament.

:21:34. > :21:35.But another poll by Panel-base suggests the Conservatives have

:21:36. > :21:46.actually extended their lead to 15 percentage points.

:21:47. > :21:53.Adam, where do we stand at the moment? Theresa May have been

:21:54. > :21:59.slipping in the polls. Is that panel -based polling outliner? Welcome to

:22:00. > :22:04.the confusing world of being a British political journalist right

:22:05. > :22:07.now. The only way we really have of gauging how Republicans feeling

:22:08. > :22:11.about this election is through those opinion polls. As you've just seen,

:22:12. > :22:15.they are saying completely different things. Just a few health warnings -

:22:16. > :22:19.here is the science bit. The YouGov one isn't an opinion poll. What

:22:20. > :22:22.they're calling it is a projection where they have crunched a load of

:22:23. > :22:29.numbers and worked out what one of the scenarios that could result at

:22:30. > :22:34.the end of the election. It has quite a large margin of error. One

:22:35. > :22:37.permutation of the data shows the Conservatives gaining seats. Another

:22:38. > :22:40.permutation shows them losing even more. But the permutation which has

:22:41. > :22:45.all of the attention on the newspaper front pages today is that

:22:46. > :22:48.of a hung parliament, needing four questions to Theresa May as to

:22:49. > :22:51.whether or not she would stand down as the Tory leader if she lost

:22:52. > :22:55.seats. There are other polls which show that Theresa May is way ahead.

:22:56. > :22:58.The reason is because all the different polling companies use

:22:59. > :23:02.different methodologies. They take the raw data and then do a bit of

:23:03. > :23:05.science to come up with their projections for what that means for

:23:06. > :23:12.the country as a hole. The message that seems to be coming up is that

:23:13. > :23:16.we lead the Conservatives have on Labour is narrowing. The dispute is

:23:17. > :23:20.about how big the lead actually is. Whether it is a model or a pole, I'm

:23:21. > :23:24.sure they don't like the Tory headquarters. I covered the American

:23:25. > :23:28.election, take those polls with a big pinch of salt - my friendly

:23:29. > :23:29.warning. A quick look at other news from around the world now.

:23:30. > :23:32.The US military has announced that it has successfully shot down

:23:33. > :23:34.a missile similar to the one North Korea could potentially

:23:35. > :23:36.use someday to threaten the United States.

:23:37. > :23:41.and is part of a 40 billion dollar programme - in response to

:23:42. > :23:45.A French policeman who was killed in Paris during an islamist

:23:46. > :23:47.attack back in April - has been posthumously

:23:48. > :23:50.Xavier Jugele, and his living partner

:23:51. > :23:53.Etienne Cardiles were legally wed in a private ceremony

:23:54. > :23:55.attended by the former French President Francois Hollande.

:23:56. > :23:57.Mr Jugele, a gay rights activist, was shot dead

:23:58. > :24:06.It's thought to be the world's first posthumous gay wedding.

:24:07. > :24:08.NASA has unveiled daring plans to fly a probe directly

:24:09. > :24:13.The Parker Solar Probe will be launched mid-2018,

:24:14. > :24:15.and scientists hope to learn about the physics of our

:24:16. > :24:19.It will be exposed to more heat and radiation than any spacecraft -

:24:20. > :24:38.flying into temperatures exceeding 1,300 degrees Celsius.

:24:39. > :24:43.It is not like Nasa were thinking of calling a Icarus, which should be a

:24:44. > :24:47.mistake! Whether it was deliberate

:24:48. > :24:50.or a mistake - one word had That's after the President tweeted

:24:51. > :24:59.this late at night... "Despite the constant

:25:00. > :25:02.negative press covfefe". It was online for six hours before

:25:03. > :25:06.the tweet was deleted - but, by that stage "covfefe",

:25:07. > :25:09.a word which had never existed, Donald Trump eventually seemed

:25:10. > :25:12.to see the funny side - "Who can figure out the true

:25:13. > :25:23.meaning of "covfefe" ??? The Philadelphia police department

:25:24. > :25:35.always have a sense of humour... I always do drive with covfefe! If you

:25:36. > :25:44.are followers of the Twitter account Trump Draws, you've got to see this.

:25:45. > :25:48."I Am Mr Trump, there is covfefe." Covfefe to use. Covfefe right back

:25:49. > :25:52.at you. I will bring this back, this is where you keep saying that Donald

:25:53. > :26:01.Trump has a communications problem - covfefe to him. You've been watching

:26:02. > :26:02.100 Days from BBC News. I will see you back here are tomorrow, and in

:26:03. > :26:13.the meantime, covfefe. Good evening to you. A decent day

:26:14. > :26:16.for most of us today, and we are in for a very mild night. A little

:26:17. > :26:17.misty and murky