27/06/2016

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:00:16. > :00:22.Asian markets open mixed. Investors hoping for a rebound after $2

:00:23. > :00:28.trillion was wiped off global markets in the wake of Britain's

:00:29. > :00:38.vote to leave the EU. And we take a closer look at what Brexit means for

:00:39. > :00:43.businesses here in Asia. Hello, and welcome to Asia Business Report. I

:00:44. > :00:47.am Sharanjit Leyl. The markets are opening in Asia and investors are

:00:48. > :00:52.keeping a close eye on them and possibly hoping for a rebound after

:00:53. > :00:57.Friday's massive sell-off on the back of the UK's referendum vote to

:00:58. > :01:01.leave the EU. Let's take a look at the markets now. Japan and Australia

:01:02. > :01:08.are currently open and are treating like this. Japan has actually inched

:01:09. > :01:12.up 1.6%. Australia down about 1%, of course we will be waiting to see

:01:13. > :01:18.what the Hang Seng does when it opened in about an hour's time. The

:01:19. > :01:23.yen is up slightly, less welcome. And Shinzo Abe has instructed his

:01:24. > :01:28.Finance Minister to take steps necessary to intervene to try to

:01:29. > :01:33.weaken the currency. Our reporter joins us at the Tokyo stock exchange

:01:34. > :01:41.with all the very latest from there. Mariko. That's right, good morning

:01:42. > :01:47.from Tokyo where Japan's markets opened higher by about 1.5%. On

:01:48. > :01:51.Friday we saw a sharp fall of 8%. The fall was actually even bigger

:01:52. > :01:55.than during the financial crisis or even after the earthquake and

:01:56. > :02:02.tsunami struck the country in 2011. The yen seems to have stabilised at

:02:03. > :02:07.about 102 yen versus the US dollar. Of course it flirted with 99 on

:02:08. > :02:12.Friday which has sent alarm across Japan's authorities. The week yen,

:02:13. > :02:17.which helps exporters, has been one of the crucial points for the Prime

:02:18. > :02:26.Minister's economic policies, known as Abenomics. I am joined by a

:02:27. > :02:33.securities trader. So Japan's Nikkei recovering this Monday. Why is this?

:02:34. > :02:37.Basically because of stabilising in the exchange market. This has been

:02:38. > :02:41.very helpful for the Japanese stock market. The Prime Minister has

:02:42. > :02:44.repeatedly said the government would be willing to intervene. Do you

:02:45. > :02:51.think that has managed to calm the market as well? of course. But the

:02:52. > :03:01.government, because of the strong opposition from the US side, is

:03:02. > :03:04.reluctant to intervene. So the market's stance has been challenged,

:03:05. > :03:10.whether they can intervene in the market or not. Do you think this

:03:11. > :03:14.stabilisation in the Japanese yen for now is sustainable? It is seen

:03:15. > :03:22.as a safe haven currency. People seem to buy it when there is a risk

:03:23. > :03:28.in the market. the market had already priced in the first drop

:03:29. > :03:35.from the Brexit, hence the liquidity for the UK banks. But that didn't

:03:36. > :03:40.happen. So in the short term we would expect the Japanese yen would

:03:41. > :03:46.stabilise for the moment. Thank you so much for joining us this morning.

:03:47. > :03:51.So we might see a possible intervention if the yen strengthened

:03:52. > :03:55.again but for now the market recovering the psychologically

:03:56. > :04:04.important 15,000 mark. Thank you for that, Mariko Oi in Tokyo. Looking at

:04:05. > :04:07.the broader effects, over the longer term the transition will be a tricky

:04:08. > :04:12.one and will likely take more than two years to iron out all of the

:04:13. > :04:17.details. So what will it mean for Asia and why should you care? Our

:04:18. > :04:25.Asia business correspondent has been making sense of it all. The pound

:04:26. > :04:29.tumbled and so did shares on stock markets across Asia. With no clear

:04:30. > :04:35.strategy ahead for the UK there is more uncertainty around the corner.

:04:36. > :04:40.A weaker pound is good for some of us here in Asia, especially if you

:04:41. > :04:44.are looking to go on holiday in the UK or study there. But it has not

:04:45. > :04:50.been good news for all of Australia's currencies. The Japanese

:04:51. > :04:52.yen, for instance, soared to 100 yen against the US dollar on Friday as

:04:53. > :04:58.investors sold the pound and bought safe haven currencies like the yen.

:04:59. > :05:05.Japan needs the yen to stay weak so it can sell more of its goods

:05:06. > :05:09.overseas. Many businesses had set up their regional headquarters in

:05:10. > :05:14.London, to access the rest of the EU. But now, with Brexit, they may

:05:15. > :05:20.have to decide whether to stay or go. Asia will now have to sign

:05:21. > :05:27.free-trade agreements directly with the UK, instead of through the EU as

:05:28. > :05:31.it has been doing for several years. Now, some countries have already

:05:32. > :05:35.indicated that they are willing to do this. Malaysia, four and that is,

:05:36. > :05:39.has said it is inclined to begin discussions but it may not be so

:05:40. > :05:42.easy for others in the neighbourhood. China, for instance,

:05:43. > :05:45.has been attempting to sign free-trade agreement with the EU for

:05:46. > :05:51.years and London has been one of biggest backers. But now, because of

:05:52. > :05:54.Brexit, London may not be at that negotiating table and it is not

:05:55. > :05:59.clear just how appealing Fasolo trade deal between the UK and China

:06:00. > :06:05.would be for Beijing. --A solo trade deal. India is one of the biggest

:06:06. > :06:09.investors in the UK and over the past year Indian countries have been

:06:10. > :06:14.buying more and more assets in Britain. So what does the UK's

:06:15. > :06:19.decision to leave the EU mean for them? Our correspondent reports from

:06:20. > :06:26.Mumbai. A car that in many ways defines the modern relationship

:06:27. > :06:31.between India and the UK. This is an iconic British brand, but it is

:06:32. > :06:36.owned by an Indian group. It is among 800 Indian companies that has

:06:37. > :06:42.investments in the UK. And for them, uncertain times lie ahead. Many of

:06:43. > :06:47.our companies have been using the UK, really, as the entry point for

:06:48. > :06:54.the EU. So all of that, even while the UK situation is going to be

:06:55. > :06:57.worked out with the European Union, some companies will have to work out

:06:58. > :07:04.in short order how they reset their own operations in the UK and as far

:07:05. > :07:08.as Europe is concerned. For India's software industry in particular, the

:07:09. > :07:13.EU is an important market. And to tap into it, many have bought firms

:07:14. > :07:19.in the UK. A loss of access to Europe and sterling weakening are a

:07:20. > :07:24.major worries now. At some believe there might be an opportunity in the

:07:25. > :07:29.turmoil. With the lower pound, if there are some hi-tech assets which

:07:30. > :07:35.can be acquired in the UK, hi-tech assets which might be financial or

:07:36. > :07:41.might be technology related, suddenly this makes the UK are much

:07:42. > :07:46.better shopping more for all of those items, for Indian companies.

:07:47. > :07:51.That could certainly be a silver lining to the cloud of Brexit. But

:07:52. > :07:55.firms here might first need to ride out the storm and wait until the new

:07:56. > :08:01.relationship between the UK and the EU is defined. It wasn't just

:08:02. > :08:07.currencies and stocks which took a pounding on Friday. Oil prices

:08:08. > :08:13.tumbled 5% and gold and traditional safe haven investment was up as much

:08:14. > :08:18.as 8%. So what does today have in store? David Lynn next is a research

:08:19. > :08:28.analyst, and he gave us his view from Sydney -- Lennox. As we saw on

:08:29. > :08:32.Friday gold was seen as that safe haven. And it quickly ran up as we

:08:33. > :08:36.saw the polls coming in and out of Britain suggesting that reason would

:08:37. > :08:41.leave the euro. And of course that is what happened. -- written would

:08:42. > :08:46.leave the euro. And while we work through the mechanism of Britain

:08:47. > :08:51.starting to settle itself down, in view of no longer participating in

:08:52. > :08:57.the EU, we will see that uncertainty being reflected in safe haven assets

:08:58. > :09:02.such as gold, and also such as the currency. You have talked about the

:09:03. > :09:07.yen, the Swiss franc and also the US dollar as markets start to settle

:09:08. > :09:10.down into a new regime of Britain not inside the EU, and just

:09:11. > :09:14.continuing to be unsure as to what is going to happen and seeking out

:09:15. > :09:21.those safe haven assets. So what does this now all mean? For

:09:22. > :09:26.businesses? Earlier I was joined by two business leaders on the opposite

:09:27. > :09:35.side of the Brexit debate, Peter Allen from Grant thought and was in

:09:36. > :09:39.favour, -- Thornton, and our other guests wanted the UK to remain in

:09:40. > :09:45.the EU. I asked them both what comes next. Both major political parties

:09:46. > :09:49.in London now have to readjust themselves. My guess would be the

:09:50. > :09:53.Conservatives would be quicker off the mark there, they have been

:09:54. > :09:57.quicker off the mark. And I think it is in their interests and the

:09:58. > :10:01.country's interest is for that process to happen and to finish

:10:02. > :10:06.relatively quickly so that Article 50 can be triggered and negotiations

:10:07. > :10:13.can start. And indeed, to the extent possible, finish. And Steve, what

:10:14. > :10:19.comes next? Is at this uncharted territory? Loom that there is some

:10:20. > :10:22.uncharted territory but we will have a period of negotiations and

:10:23. > :10:26.readjustment. I personally think the EU has taken the time to do most

:10:27. > :10:32.wings and it is going to take longer. It is certainly not going to

:10:33. > :10:37.be two years that are in the legislation, and are expected. I

:10:38. > :10:43.think certainly over the next couple or three months we will see some of

:10:44. > :10:49.the turmoil settled. But it is going to be turmoil for a long time. Now

:10:50. > :10:54.pluses and minuses for business. You both run businesses in Asia, Peter,

:10:55. > :11:00.yours is a professional services business. How are your business is

:11:01. > :11:04.going to be affected? The great majority of our clients are clients

:11:05. > :11:09.coming into this region from other places. So the United States, Japan,

:11:10. > :11:15.Australia, England, Germany. To the extent that there is a global

:11:16. > :11:20.slowdown, as a result of Brexit, that flow may decrease slightly but

:11:21. > :11:23.I wouldn't expect a major impact. I think this region will continue to

:11:24. > :11:30.be extremely attractive to international investors. What about

:11:31. > :11:35.you? Our clients include national oil companies around here, major

:11:36. > :11:41.investment banks, things like this, and their business is global. Most

:11:42. > :11:46.of our businesses are global, and the focus is Asia. I don't really

:11:47. > :11:52.expect to see very much change. The only thing we are going to see is a

:11:53. > :11:56.slowdown in Europe. And we are going to have some of the impact that we

:11:57. > :12:01.saw during the global financial crisis, as everything slows down for

:12:02. > :12:05.a while. And we have heard from the Chinese Finance Minister, even the

:12:06. > :12:09.credit ratings agencies, all saying there is a period of uncertainty,

:12:10. > :12:12.this is going to affect UK's economy and the global economy. So surely

:12:13. > :12:16.this can't be seen to be a good thing, at surely there is some sort

:12:17. > :12:23.of an upside to this, Peter, you must see it? My personal reasons for

:12:24. > :12:27.voting leave were always around political reasons, and around

:12:28. > :12:33.democratic accountability. I mean, one might hope that one of the

:12:34. > :12:39.impacts of Brexit over the medium to long run would be a loosening in

:12:40. > :12:42.some of the European Union's policy prescriptions, which have tended to

:12:43. > :12:50.be very directed towards political integration. And that I would say,

:12:51. > :12:55.as a Hayekian liberal, would tend to have effects upon the economy. I

:12:56. > :13:00.agree with the Chinese government, this will take some time to work

:13:01. > :13:04.through. Let's take a look at the markets now. We saw them at the

:13:05. > :13:10.start of the programme, and indeed the Nikkei continues to hold onto

:13:11. > :13:13.its gains, up over 1%. And as you heard our correspondent talk about

:13:14. > :13:18.earlier, this is partially to do with the fact that Prime Minister

:13:19. > :13:22.Shinzo Abe has said that he might potentially go in, that the

:13:23. > :13:26.government is ready to intervene to try to weaken the strength of the

:13:27. > :13:30.yen. Australia though is just flat at the moment and we are awaiting

:13:31. > :13:33.the Hang Seng open. That's it for this edition of Asia Business

:13:34. > :13:40.Report. Thank you for watching. The top stories this hour: Britain's

:13:41. > :13:45.currency falls further, as Asia's financial markets open

:13:46. > :13:47.to more warnings about the UK Beijing warns that Brexit

:13:48. > :13:53.casts a long shadow over