:00:00. > :00:08.This is Business Live from the BBC with Ben Thompson and Sally Bundock.
:00:09. > :00:11.Solidarity with Paris - a grieving city returns to business
:00:12. > :00:13.and the stock market opens as usual, but investors search
:00:14. > :00:36.Live from London, that's our top story, today, Monday November 16th.
:00:37. > :00:39.Worries grow over the impact the Paris attacks could have
:00:40. > :00:42.on France, with tourism and consumer spending likely to be hit.
:00:43. > :01:06.A big blow to Abenomics - Japan slides back into recession
:01:07. > :01:11.And we'll have a full round up of the global business pages, looking
:01:12. > :01:14.at the economic impact of the terror attacks in Paris talking to our
:01:15. > :01:18.correspondents in the French capital and here in the studio about the
:01:19. > :01:21.longer-term implications for France and Europe.
:01:22. > :01:25.do get in touch with us with your comments - you know what to do,
:01:26. > :02:00.has been a big drop at the open - Paris stocks fell 1.1% at the
:02:01. > :02:06.opening bell, but most analysts agree that the reaction will be
:02:07. > :02:11.Public transport should be running as normal today in France -
:02:12. > :02:14.Museums and some other attractions will also open as usual,
:02:15. > :02:17.but more vulnerable sites, such as the Eiffel tower will remain closed,
:02:18. > :02:22.as will Disneyland Paris, which will remain closed until Wednesday.
:02:23. > :02:25.Virginie Maisonneuve from Maisonneuve Global Advisors is with
:02:26. > :02:35.Thank you for coming in. This has enormous poignancy for you because
:02:36. > :02:43.the places that were attacked on Friday, the places that you used to
:02:44. > :02:46.go to in your youth? Absolutely, the Bataclan is the place where young
:02:47. > :02:49.people go to listen to music, those little cafes, it is part of the
:02:50. > :02:56.Parisien and French lifestyle in general. In terms of the impact of
:02:57. > :03:01.all of this, you were looking into all of this prior to Friday, you had
:03:02. > :03:05.put out new research about the impacts of these kinds of events.
:03:06. > :03:10.Talk us through your thoughts in reaction to what happened on
:03:11. > :03:14.Friday? Clearly beyond the human tragedy, which we must acknowledge,
:03:15. > :03:19.it is important to think about the impact on the economy and
:03:20. > :03:24.geopolitics. To me, there are four very important points to study. One
:03:25. > :03:29.is psychological impact. When does the human psyche, if you will, take
:03:30. > :03:34.a series of independent events and create a pattern out of it? Clearly
:03:35. > :03:42.this is after Beirut, Turkey, the Russian plane, so there is a
:03:43. > :03:46.question Mark there. If there was eight psyche shift, it would impact
:03:47. > :03:50.business and consumer confidence, which would have an impact on
:03:51. > :03:54.economy. You also talk about the geopolitical element, which is
:03:55. > :03:57.important with the uber project, but this could bring people together and
:03:58. > :04:03.solve some of the problems we have seen? -- the euro project. We have
:04:04. > :04:08.seen it in terms of discussion at the G20, some of the announcements
:04:09. > :04:12.made yesterday in terms of fighting against financing of terrorism,
:04:13. > :04:17.bringing people together, and I would say not only within Europe but
:04:18. > :04:25.so far there has been a loose association in terms of tackling the
:04:26. > :04:30.issues, possibly Russia, the US and Europe being more aligned, and
:04:31. > :04:35.clearly with the intervention of France in Syria yesterday possibly
:04:36. > :04:38.discussions took place before that, so geopolitics is very important.
:04:39. > :04:44.The other factor that is important is macroeconomy and clearly there is
:04:45. > :04:49.a direct way to look at this, which is, what is tourism overall, what
:04:50. > :04:53.does it mean for the economy? Tourism and related activity is
:04:54. > :04:59.about 10% of the world GDP, a large industry and also a large employer,
:05:00. > :05:04.with over 270 million jobs around the world. With regards to France,
:05:05. > :05:10.it is about the same, 9% of GDP, so you can see if we had another event
:05:11. > :05:17.or if, again, the consumer and business psyche thought we would
:05:18. > :05:21.have more of that and we had a ship, it could have an impact on the
:05:22. > :05:26.economy, and that is important. What is your gut feeling about this? Do
:05:27. > :05:33.you think it will have a long-term impact or actually it will be a
:05:34. > :05:37.short-term situation, a knee jerk reaction? The fact it happened late
:05:38. > :05:40.Friday after European markets closed was significant in that there was no
:05:41. > :05:45.immediate reaction, there has been the weekend for rational thinking to
:05:46. > :05:54.set in. There definitely will be a long-term impact. Some of them will
:05:55. > :05:58.be the same way that 9/11 had impact. The way we think about
:05:59. > :06:02.communication, corporation, definitely. In regards to the US
:06:03. > :06:06.monetary policy it might have an impact depending on how markets
:06:07. > :06:09.behave between now and December because Janet Yellen has made it
:06:10. > :06:14.clear she wanted a relatively stable global environment for US rates to
:06:15. > :06:18.go up, so I think that is more medium term, but I think definitely
:06:19. > :06:22.will have an impact. We appreciate you coming in and giving your
:06:23. > :06:29.analysis of the situation you. You can see it on the screen there,
:06:30. > :06:34.Paris stock market down about 40 points.
:06:35. > :06:38.Japan, the world's third-largest economy, has slipped into recession.
:06:39. > :06:41.Personal consumption in the country remains positive, but there was weak
:06:42. > :06:47.corporate investment blamed on concerns for the global economy and
:06:48. > :06:49.It puts policymakers under further pressure
:06:50. > :06:58.to deploy new stimulus measures to support a fragile recovery.
:06:59. > :07:00.China's President Xi Jinping says he expects the country's economy
:07:01. > :07:04.Xi's remarks were made at the G20 Summit in Turkey.
:07:05. > :07:07.Beijing has already rolled out a raft of support measures since last
:07:08. > :07:24.Let's look at the Business Live page online, keeping across all of the
:07:25. > :07:27.business stories. We are focusing on events in Paris and the implications
:07:28. > :07:31.on the French economy and Europe, but there are other business stories
:07:32. > :07:34.out there. Just imagine on the Business Live page, our
:07:35. > :07:39.correspondent based in Paris and elsewhere covering the event as they
:07:40. > :07:43.happen. This is Lucy Burton posting earlier today from Paris. But if you
:07:44. > :07:51.want to keep across other business stories and events taking place,
:07:52. > :07:56.companies like Majestic Wines, the Japanese recession, and also MTM, a
:07:57. > :08:00.big South African mobile operator, the biggest in South Africa, in
:08:01. > :08:04.trouble with regards to a fine it has to pay today, the deadline has
:08:05. > :08:06.been extended to give some breathing space. Lots of stories there for you
:08:07. > :08:14.to die just when you have time. Let's cross to
:08:15. > :08:16.our Asia business hub as markets Not least because of the Paris
:08:17. > :08:25.attacks, but also news that Japan is Talk us through these two issues
:08:26. > :08:31.weighing on the stock market and the minds of investors today?
:08:32. > :08:38.The Asian markets were down after the deadly attacks in Paris. We saw
:08:39. > :08:41.the benchmark Australian index closing down almost 1%, and in South
:08:42. > :08:47.Korea the index finished down 1.5%. Korea the index finished down 1.5%.
:08:48. > :08:53.The Hang Seng in Hong Kong fell by a similar mark, 1.7%, and indicate
:08:54. > :08:59.also closed down 1%. Market analysts have said they expect the attacks
:09:00. > :09:03.have a sharp but short lived effect and that longer term investors will
:09:04. > :09:08.stub looking towards what happens with the slowdown in China and with
:09:09. > :09:11.the US Federal Reserve, whether it will raise interest rates next
:09:12. > :09:16.month. The other big economic news in Japan was the preliminary GDP
:09:17. > :09:21.data saying the country was in a technical recession. The Japanese
:09:22. > :09:27.economy shrank 0.8% in the last quarter, following a contraction of
:09:28. > :09:31.0.7% the previous quarter. This is the second time the economy has
:09:32. > :09:36.fallen into recession since Prime Minister Shinzo Abe came to power,
:09:37. > :09:39.and it raises serious questions about his aggressive economic
:09:40. > :09:40.policies and whether they are working.
:09:41. > :09:41.Thank you for talking us through that.
:09:42. > :09:43.So confirmation of what was expected.
:09:44. > :09:46.Asian markets ended down - after the terror attacks in Paris
:09:47. > :09:49.unnerved investors, on top of the news that Japan had
:09:50. > :09:52.slipped back into recession for the second time in two years.
:09:53. > :10:04.Airline stocks taking a beating on concerns over the tourism industry.
:10:05. > :10:07.A big player in France, we will talk about that more in a moment.
:10:08. > :10:12.But whilst there are falls, most investors don't expect this to
:10:13. > :10:36.The CAC 40 down there. But what does it mean for the state of your risen
:10:37. > :10:39.economies? Investors are temporarily looking for safe havens, somewhere
:10:40. > :10:42.to put their cash, including in the dollar, gold, the Japanese yen, we
:10:43. > :10:45.have seen that through the course of the day, but that is the current
:10:46. > :10:47.state of play on the markets. We will keep a close eye on those for
:10:48. > :10:51.you. Jeremy Stretch is Head of FX
:10:52. > :11:03.strategy at CIBC. Ben was running through the markets,
:11:04. > :11:08.the euro down, the dollar, it is what we would expect at this point?
:11:09. > :11:15.It is, you would expect in a period of risk and uncertainty, which we
:11:16. > :11:21.have clearly seen over the weekend, generally equity sentiment markets
:11:22. > :11:27.will sell off, some safer havens, ironically the yen often seen as
:11:28. > :11:30.that despite the GDP downgrade, generally it performs well so we are
:11:31. > :11:34.seeing the traditional market reaction you would expect at this
:11:35. > :11:38.stage of the session. As ever, lots of reaction in the press, social
:11:39. > :11:43.media, everywhere about the impact this will happen. Your thoughts? As
:11:44. > :11:47.your previous guest was talking about, there is an impact on
:11:48. > :11:52.consumer spending, airline stocks in terms of equity markets. The real
:11:53. > :11:57.immediate reaction is in terms of sentiment, how that plays out. If we
:11:58. > :12:00.get further volatility in equity markets then it has enormous
:12:01. > :12:14.implications for global model triple as a, including the Federal reserve
:12:15. > :12:16.in December, but we have to be careful about extrapolating that
:12:17. > :12:21.after just a few hours of the first session of the week. All of these
:12:22. > :12:26.are different elements, I touched on it there with the market boards, of
:12:27. > :12:29.how governments will react, what it means for things like monetary with
:12:30. > :12:35.the state of the economy, numbers. They seem like just numbers and it
:12:36. > :12:38.perhaps feels in sensitive to talk about it at this time but they are
:12:39. > :12:42.huge issues and one that policymakers will be looking at
:12:43. > :12:46.closely. Absolutely, and clearly we have to remember the human tragedy
:12:47. > :12:50.that backs this up over the weekend. In essence we are trying to extract
:12:51. > :13:00.the ramifications of that in times of economic performance and global
:13:01. > :13:05.monitoring of the. -- monetary. The question is whether the cycle in the
:13:06. > :13:11.US is being delayed or postponed by the events, clearly a factor we need
:13:12. > :13:15.to consider. In September they talked about global economic
:13:16. > :13:19.conditions, suggesting economic uncertainties were front and centre
:13:20. > :13:24.but if we see further vulnerability, we had seen a good run in October,
:13:25. > :13:27.but a lot of fragility starting to come back in, and we overlay that
:13:28. > :13:33.with the commodity markets, the oil price under pressure in the last few
:13:34. > :13:37.sessions, there is a big infantry overhang, and it was the question
:13:38. > :13:41.about demand going forward it would start to imply that the oil price
:13:42. > :13:45.could fall further, which has enormous invitation for those
:13:46. > :13:48.producers and the countries. Thank you very much. Jeremy will
:13:49. > :13:51.return in about five minutes as we look at what is being discussed in
:13:52. > :13:55.the papers and on social media. We will be looking at what the
:13:56. > :13:58.papers say about the attacks on Friday in Paris and as concerns
:13:59. > :14:05.about about the economic impact we will look at what it would mean for
:14:06. > :14:08.Europe's Academy. -- what it could mean for Europe's economy.
:14:09. > :14:10.You're with Business Live from BBC News.
:14:11. > :14:13.Here in the UK, the Prime Minister, David Cameron, has announced a big
:14:14. > :14:16.increase in funding for the security services in response to the threat
:14:17. > :14:19.There'll be more money for our intelligence agencies,
:14:20. > :14:36.Our business correspondent Simon Jack joins us. Let's look at
:14:37. > :14:41.UK reaction. You will see from here, that's the FTSE 100. It is green. It
:14:42. > :14:45.is up. It is the only one up. The rest of the European markets are
:14:46. > :14:50.dourngs but not by much. The UK -- down, but not by mush. The IAG which
:14:51. > :14:53.owns British Airways, airline stocks have been affected, but not very
:14:54. > :14:58.much reaction and this is typical. We have seen this before in Madrid,
:14:59. > :15:03.and we saw it in the 7/7 bombings in London. Short-term little hit and
:15:04. > :15:08.people recover quickly. This one is different in the sense the UK is
:15:09. > :15:11.isolated because it is not part of the Schengen group. This moment
:15:12. > :15:15.comes at a very sensitive time for the European Union. They are under
:15:16. > :15:20.the pressure of a migrant crisis and they are wondering if their Schengen
:15:21. > :15:24.deal is fit for purpose and there is a lot of bickering going on in
:15:25. > :15:29.Europe and this comes at a sensitive time. David Cameron finding 1900 new
:15:30. > :15:34.security officers to bolster his defences against this threat. I
:15:35. > :15:39.don't know where you find 1900 spy ins a short period of time, but
:15:40. > :15:44.maybe he know where is to get them. Extra funding for GCHQ and MI5 and
:15:45. > :15:48.MI6. The markets are taking it in their stride.
:15:49. > :15:55.Thank you very much, Simon Jack. More details too of events today. We
:15:56. > :16:03.have been assessing the economic impact of events on Friday.
:16:04. > :16:09.We have got, they are at pains to say it is business as usual in terms
:16:10. > :16:15.of travel to and from France. The Eurotunnel is open. It could take
:16:16. > :16:20.longer, French borders controls are tightening. It could take long tore
:16:21. > :16:27.get across borders today. Online, you can see the details there. Some
:16:28. > :16:35.other stories as well, Ben on the Business Live page.
:16:36. > :16:40.A new Nationwide boss. Nationwide is hiring Joe Garner. We have had an
:16:41. > :16:45.update from the CBI and its view on Europe. Details on the live page.
:16:46. > :16:59.As France enters a third day of mourning after the gun and bomb
:17:00. > :17:02.attacks in Paris killed 129 people and left more than 350 wounded,
:17:03. > :17:04.resilient businesses are opening and Parisians are going to work.
:17:05. > :17:07.The stock market has also opened as usual with stocks falling 1.1% in
:17:08. > :17:20.The numbers have pulled back. That shows resilience. We have only
:17:21. > :17:24.been trading for 15 minute sos far in Europe. You can see the numbers
:17:25. > :17:38.there. Paris down a third of a percent at the moment.
:17:39. > :17:40.Joining me now to discuss this is our Economic
:17:41. > :17:56.Clearly the extent to which they have switched to a risk aversion is
:17:57. > :18:00.somewhat limited, isn't it? There is a bit of concern at the opening of
:18:01. > :18:04.trade about the potential economic impact, but the figure we are seeing
:18:05. > :18:08.now, a third of a percent down as you say, a normal day frankly, if
:18:09. > :18:13.you were seeing falls in the market over the day, you would regard that
:18:14. > :18:16.as unremarkable. Also similar kind of pattern emerging in the bond
:18:17. > :18:21.market where Government debt is trading. We are seeing there have
:18:22. > :18:26.been some move in towards buying the ultimate safe asset in Europe which
:18:27. > :18:30.is German Government bonds, but it is really modest and we have not
:18:31. > :18:35.seen a great flight from the riskier assets.
:18:36. > :18:41.This is very important, isn't it? For full confidence and for the
:18:42. > :18:46.perception that France is able and will return to some normality. Ity?
:18:47. > :18:51.There are potentially issues about this. The economic aftermath of
:18:52. > :18:54.these dreadful events in terms of both supply and demand sides of the
:18:55. > :18:59.equation, the demand question is does it affect consumer confidence
:19:00. > :19:04.and of course, with France being the world's biggest, most popular
:19:05. > :19:09.destination for tourists, there is an impact there. On the supply side,
:19:10. > :19:12.there is the question of the border controls will add somewhat to
:19:13. > :19:16.business costs for the businesses that are shipping goods or people
:19:17. > :19:19.across borders. I suspect the impact of that will be rather limited and
:19:20. > :19:24.perhaps confined to some particular types of businesses that are trading
:19:25. > :19:31.locally across borders, but it is not to be discounted. The issue of
:19:32. > :19:35.tourism is important. About 7.5% of French GDP, the issue for French
:19:36. > :19:39.businesses, hotels and restaurants is whether people will be put off or
:19:40. > :19:47.whether as they are hoping people will think, "We will not be bowed by
:19:48. > :19:53.this. We will go to Paris." Tourists have in the end come back. In the
:19:54. > :19:58.short-term, certainly, the stock market is showing the impact of that
:19:59. > :20:04.kind of concern. Eurotunnel a little highly ago was down 4.5%, airlines
:20:05. > :20:09.have been affected and the French hotel group was down about 6% a
:20:10. > :20:12.short time ago. So yes, there clearly is an issue there and I
:20:13. > :20:20.think, you know, and the big question will be just how quickly,
:20:21. > :20:25.how durable is any effect on tourists confidence? Anna joins frus
:20:26. > :20:29.Paris. One of our correspondents there for us at the moment. Anna, it
:20:30. > :20:33.is a difficult conversation isn't it to have at the moment because as you
:20:34. > :20:38.can see behind you, all the tributes, I mean Paris is a city
:20:39. > :20:43.that's grech grieving right now and yet wanting to show strength at this
:20:44. > :20:47.time and show that they want to get going again, get businesses moving
:20:48. > :20:52.again where you are and the economy, but not stalled by this?
:20:53. > :20:56.That's right. It is almost like a kind of nervous defiance. You can
:20:57. > :21:00.see people cycling past to work. We have seen kids with rucksacks head
:21:01. > :21:03.to go school, but so many people, we have been here since 6am this
:21:04. > :21:08.morning, so many people have been making a detour to come and pay
:21:09. > :21:14.their respects and lay flowers here. It has been a constant, constant
:21:15. > :21:18.flow. We have been hearing that, well, of course, this is the third
:21:19. > :21:22.day, the third and the final day of national mourning and other
:21:23. > :21:28.practical things are getting back to normal too. So the public transport
:21:29. > :21:32.is running again. Flights. Ferry services, there are delays there.
:21:33. > :21:37.People are advised to leave extra time because of the border controls
:21:38. > :21:40.here in place in France. The question, of course, is what
:21:41. > :21:44.people there are telling you. We have talked about the resilience and
:21:45. > :21:49.the attitude of the Parisance there as Sally touched on wanting to get
:21:50. > :21:52.back to normal, but wanting to get back to normal and the normality are
:21:53. > :21:56.two very different things, aren't they? They are two very different
:21:57. > :22:01.things. It was interesting, when we arrived here, the day after the
:22:02. > :22:05.attacks, we were driving down past the stadium. A minute's drive away.
:22:06. > :22:09.There were people sitting outside a Ras rant so they are trying to get
:22:10. > :22:12.on with their lives. They don't want to allow the terrorists to win here
:22:13. > :22:15.and we have been hearing from department stores, one of them
:22:16. > :22:21.opened their doors on Saturday saying that it wanted to show a will
:22:22. > :22:24.to resist in the face of terror, but they decided to close because it was
:22:25. > :22:29.too difficult for them and for the customers. Just looking at some of
:22:30. > :22:36.the other major tourist attractions here. The Eiffel Tower will remain
:22:37. > :22:38.closed indefinitely for security reasons and Disneyland Paris is
:22:39. > :22:45.expected to re-open on Wednesday. They have been closed. A decision
:22:46. > :22:49.was taken in support of our customers. Smaller businesses, if
:22:50. > :22:55.you look around the square. There are lots of cafes, restaurants,
:22:56. > :23:01.shops, and they are reopening today. Some small businesses are donating
:23:02. > :23:08.their profits to the Red Cross in support of the 129 victims who died
:23:09. > :23:20.here. Thank you very much Anna and Andrew.
:23:21. > :23:22.In a moment we'll take a look through the Business pages,
:23:23. > :23:26.but first here's what British Prime Minister David Cameron had to say to
:23:27. > :23:39.You can't deal with so-called Islamic State unless you get a
:23:40. > :23:42.political settlement in Syria that enables you to degrade and destroy
:23:43. > :23:47.that organisation. It has a long way to go, but there are hopeful signs
:23:48. > :23:50.in that the meeting of foreign ministers including the Russians and
:23:51. > :23:53.the Iranians as well as the Americans, the British and the
:23:54. > :23:58.French in Vienna made some progress and I hope to have positive
:23:59. > :24:02.discussions with Vladimir Putin this morning, but even without that, we
:24:03. > :24:06.will do everything we can to make sure we keep our people safe, but we
:24:07. > :24:09.live in a very, very dangerous world.
:24:10. > :24:12.What other business stories has the media been taking an interest in?
:24:13. > :24:17.Jeremy Stretch from CIBC is back with us.
:24:18. > :24:25.The Paris attacks will put pressure on oil prices? There is an impact.
:24:26. > :24:30.If there is a demand shock side to global economic activity it will put
:24:31. > :24:39.further pressure on the oil price which has been falling because of
:24:40. > :24:42.this perception of a big oil over hang infantry and for the oil
:24:43. > :24:46.producing economies that is another headache and that puts further
:24:47. > :24:51.pressure and fiscal pressure on countries like Saudi Arabia where
:24:52. > :24:55.the cost of production are low, but their reliance on the oil revenues
:24:56. > :24:59.is increasingly significant. During the attacks, Jeremy, we saw
:25:00. > :25:03.technology play an important role whether it is Twitter or Facebook.
:25:04. > :25:08.Facebook opting to let people indicate to friends and colleagues
:25:09. > :25:13.that they are safe. Airbnb being involved and Uber and this shows how
:25:14. > :25:18.technology tirms can help in situations like this? When we see a
:25:19. > :25:21.period of crisis we go to the news media to find information from the
:25:22. > :25:25.BBC News Channel for example, but having that ability to communicate
:25:26. > :25:28.via social media is hugely beneficial for those people who are
:25:29. > :25:32.trying to seek out more information and trying to learn about loved
:25:33. > :25:35.ones, but it provides opportunities as you mentioned about accommodation
:25:36. > :25:42.for those that were stranded in Paris. It provides great benefits to
:25:43. > :25:46.individuals. Thank you very much Jeremy for
:25:47. > :25:50.coming in. You're up-to-date with the business for now. Plenty of
:25:51. > :25:57.details across the BBC as we get updaids from Paris.
:25:58. > :26:02.-- updates from Paris. For the other business stories we haven't had a
:26:03. > :26:05.chance to cover today, do take a look at the Business Live page. We
:26:06. > :26:09.will see you soon.