:00:00. > :00:00.This is Business Live from BBC News,
:00:07. > :00:10.with Sally Bundock and Ben Thompson.
:00:11. > :00:12.Oil hovers near 11 year lows as the slump in global
:00:13. > :00:16.Live from London, that's our top story
:00:17. > :00:36.An end of year rally looks like a distant hope as supply
:00:37. > :00:40.outstrips demand across the commodities world.
:00:41. > :00:46.Space X launches and lands the Falcon-9 rocket for the first
:00:47. > :00:54.for the future of the space industry.
:00:55. > :01:02.And why everything isn't rosy in the flower business -
:01:03. > :01:05.the florist to the stars,
:01:06. > :01:07.Paul Thomas, will join us later in the programme
:01:08. > :01:14.to give us the inside track on his latest creations.
:01:15. > :01:15.And as one influential advisor calls on the US government to tax
:01:16. > :01:17.greenhouse gas emissions from big business,
:01:18. > :01:21.we want to know, what's the best incentive to go green?
:01:22. > :01:24.Fines, charges, punishments or persuasion?
:01:25. > :01:37.Let us know - use the hashtag, #BBCBizLive.
:01:38. > :01:45.We start with the continuing pressure on commodity prices.
:01:46. > :01:48.It is good news if you're having to pay for commodities,
:01:49. > :01:50.but bad news if your economy or company
:01:51. > :02:00.Oil is still hovering around 11 year lows.
:02:01. > :02:05.In fact, it's fallen by around a third since the start of the year.
:02:06. > :02:07.Oil production is running close to record highs,
:02:08. > :02:14.and there's just not enough demand to mop it all up.
:02:15. > :02:16.Slower growth in China - the world's second
:02:17. > :02:23.is now using less copper, and that's helped to push down
:02:24. > :02:33.weaker industrial production in China has helped
:02:34. > :02:35.depress the price - which has fallen
:02:36. > :02:45.Gold hasn't escaped either - its price is down by around 10%
:02:46. > :02:49.This time, it's the strong US dollar to blame.
:02:50. > :02:57.Gold is priced in dollars - so the stronger the greenback,
:02:58. > :02:58.And with interest rates rising in the US,
:02:59. > :03:02.investors may be drawn to investments on the other side
:03:03. > :03:04.of the Atlantic, where returns are more attractive.
:03:05. > :03:14.Amrita Sen, Chief Oil Analyst at Energy Aspects is with me.
:03:15. > :03:25.If you look at Brent, down 42% lower than this time last year. It is hard
:03:26. > :03:28.to judge who this is good and bad for all stop initially, drivers are
:03:29. > :03:32.doing well out of this, of course, but less so for the oil firms
:03:33. > :03:35.themselves. Their response has been to lay off staff and cut investment.
:03:36. > :03:46.That is going to continue, isn't it? Pressure. We have seen oil companies
:03:47. > :03:50.cut huge amount of workforce. And capital expenditure is down around
:03:51. > :03:55.$110 billion this year and another 100 billion next year. If these
:03:56. > :03:59.prices persist for another few months, that could go up another
:04:00. > :04:03.20%. We have talked about US shale producers and whether this is just
:04:04. > :04:08.the Opec members tried to put them out of business, but they
:04:09. > :04:10.managed to withstand the storm better than many expected. The
:04:11. > :04:16.question is how long this can go on before someone has to blink. That is
:04:17. > :04:20.exactly the question. The industry of $30 oil is not sustainable, but
:04:21. > :04:27.it is a survival game at the moment. The amount of assets you have seen
:04:28. > :04:30.in the US, it is at record levels. Moody 's has pledged another 29
:04:31. > :04:35.companies on review for further downgrades. These are big
:04:36. > :04:38.some of the biggest in the shale business in the US. They are
:04:39. > :04:45.literally selling every asset possible to survive, in the hope
:04:46. > :04:53.that prices will go up. So looking in your crystal ball, what are we
:04:54. > :04:56.talking about in 2016? First, it will be a struggle. The warm winter
:04:57. > :05:00.is not helping. It has been very warm here, and also in the US, Japan
:05:01. > :05:06.and Korea. And because of the cutbacks, they should start feeding
:05:07. > :05:12.through to lower production. Probably not until the fourth
:05:13. > :05:18.quarter of 2016. There has also been the shale and BG merger. That is in
:05:19. > :05:27.the spotlight, because it was predicated on a price of about $70
:05:28. > :05:29.per barrel. It is fed to say that prices will go back up. If anything,
:05:30. > :05:33.the lower the prices stay today, the higher they will be in a couple of
:05:34. > :05:41.years. The question is how long we stay in this low price environment,
:05:42. > :05:44.which is adding to the jitters of a lot of investors.
:05:45. > :05:49.Apple has raised concerns about the UK Government's proposals
:05:50. > :05:52.The proposed law aims to overhaul rules governing the way
:05:53. > :05:53.the authorities can access people's communications.
:05:54. > :05:56.Apple says the bill would give police and security services access
:05:57. > :05:58.to the records of every UK citizen's internet use,
:05:59. > :06:02.without the need for authorisation from a judge.
:06:03. > :06:06.Martin Shkreli - known to many as the man who raised the price
:06:07. > :06:13.of a lifesaving HIV drug by 5,000% - has been fired as chief executive
:06:14. > :06:17.It comes just days after his arrest by the FBI for securities fraud.
:06:18. > :06:20.In a short statement, the company said he had also stepped
:06:21. > :06:28.The mood among German consumers is improving as the year
:06:29. > :06:32.Despite an increase in terrorism threat levels, the latest survey
:06:33. > :06:37.of sentiment by GfK showed a slight improvement,
:06:38. > :06:38.ending four months of decline. Consumers' expectations
:06:39. > :06:44.for the German economy and their own levels of income have
:06:45. > :06:47.both improved according to GfK, while their propensity to splash out
:06:48. > :07:03.and buy goods is at an "extremely high level".
:07:04. > :07:08.Music to the ears of German retailers. Speaking of Christmas,
:07:09. > :07:12.how to complain is a story from BBC 5 Live this morning. If you are
:07:13. > :07:17.still waiting for gifts to arrive in the post or you have had bad
:07:18. > :07:22.service, the way to do it is to personalise the complaint. You
:07:23. > :07:24.are a person waiting for this package, not an address or a
:07:25. > :07:31.reference number. That is the advice from BBC 5 Live this morning. Let me
:07:32. > :07:35.take you through some of the other stories. Fred Thompson, chief
:07:36. > :07:39.executive of Chapel down English wines, spoke to us previously. He
:07:40. > :07:43.has some competition on his doorstep, because the champagne
:07:44. > :07:47.group have moved in. They are buying next door
:07:48. > :07:51.spent 14 years being called a lunatic for growing English grapes
:07:52. > :07:55.and making English wine. But apparently, the champagne lot have
:07:56. > :08:00.arrived and suddenly, everything is fantastic. Though he says he was
:08:01. > :08:04.their first, and therefore, it is good news, competition for sparkling
:08:05. > :08:10.English wine. It will not be called champagne, though. We need to be
:08:11. > :08:12.clear about that. and look at what else
:08:13. > :08:20.is making business headlines. Those forest fires in
:08:21. > :08:35.Indonesia are costing When this was going on, even that
:08:36. > :08:39.view behind you, we could see the haze. That's right. It has been
:08:40. > :08:43.particularly bad this year, so the view behind this wasn't even
:08:44. > :08:48.visible. You could just see a thick, white smoke behind us. This happens
:08:49. > :08:51.almost every year. This year was particularly bad, but each year,
:08:52. > :08:56.farmers in Indonesia deliberately clear land, mostly on palm oil
:08:57. > :09:00.plantations, and that causes this thick haze that covers most of
:09:01. > :09:01.south-east Asia. More than 50 companies are being punished for
:09:02. > :09:07.their role either by starting the fire is all
:09:08. > :09:11.for not stopping the fires when it happens on their land. This has been
:09:12. > :09:15.done by the Indonesian government, which is revoking or freezing the
:09:16. > :09:19.licenses of the companies found responsible. This is significant,
:09:20. > :09:26.because after all these years, it is the first time people are being held
:09:27. > :09:31.to account. But they have not released the names of the firms,
:09:32. > :09:33.only the general locations of the companies, so we had to do some
:09:34. > :09:38.detective work. This costs billions of dollars to the Indonesian economy
:09:39. > :09:46.each year and that is something they are looking to stop. A very
:09:47. > :09:58.interesting development. Markets were pretty mixed today. A few
:09:59. > :10:16.elements are affecting trade in Asia.
:10:17. > :10:24.Toshiba shares are down today another 7%. They closed nearly 10%
:10:25. > :10:41.lower on Monday. Let's look at Europe we flee before we move on. --
:10:42. > :10:42.briefly. Let's talk through what is expected in the United States.
:10:43. > :10:58.Michelle Fleury is there for us. The Jordan Brand is the perennial
:10:59. > :11:02.favourite, as long Strong sales of women's archive and the online
:11:03. > :11:09.business will generally. Nike has set a target of boosting annual
:11:10. > :11:13.revenues by more than half to $50 billion by 2020. Also on Tuesday,
:11:14. > :11:16.investors will be looking out for the latest revision to US growth
:11:17. > :11:21.stats. Data from the commerce department are likely to show that
:11:22. > :11:26.US GDP expanded at an annual rate of 1.9% in the third quarter.
:11:27. > :11:28.That is two tenths of a percent slower than was previously
:11:29. > :11:29.estimated. Joining us is Mike Amey,
:11:30. > :11:43.managing director and portfolio Let's start with the UK. Borrowing
:11:44. > :11:49.figures are out later today. November is not a particularly good
:11:50. > :11:52.month anywhere, but where are we? At the moment, we are obviously a long
:11:53. > :12:00.way down from where we were a few years ago. The deficit for this year
:12:01. > :12:05.is projected to be around ?75 billion, unfortunately still a very
:12:06. > :12:10.large number, about 4% of our annual output. So there is still a way to
:12:11. > :12:17.go. The challenge is revenues, which are coming in a bit lower than
:12:18. > :12:22.expected. As we know, wage growth is pretty low, and if wage growth is
:12:23. > :12:29.low, the government offers do not get replenished as quickly as we
:12:30. > :12:31.hope. And with falling oil prices, I suppose VAT revenue from petrol will
:12:32. > :12:37.be lower, That's right. We hope people spend
:12:38. > :12:42.some of that windfall in other areas. If they do, hopefully you get
:12:43. > :12:45.the money back somewhere else. But at the moment, a bit of a challenge
:12:46. > :12:51.on the revenues. As the year draws to a close, today we have the
:12:52. > :12:53.Chinese leadership saying they will do more to stimulate growth in China
:12:54. > :12:57.which is what we want to hear. Then which is what we want to hear. Then
:12:58. > :13:01.you have the interest rate situation in Europe and the US, and oil, we
:13:02. > :13:08.have mentioned. Lots of moving parts. When we look forward to the
:13:09. > :13:12.next 12 months, we are relatively optimistic that in aggregate, things
:13:13. > :13:16.will be OK. China is probably through the worst, and if that is
:13:17. > :13:20.the case, it should give us hope for 2016. But there is an interesting
:13:21. > :13:28.divergence between the Federal the European Central Bank try to
:13:29. > :13:33.keep pumping cash into the system. 2016 should be OK, but a lot of
:13:34. > :13:37.moving parts. If you look at where we were this time last year, on the
:13:38. > :13:41.one hand, a very different picture, but still always the same issues.
:13:42. > :13:49.But they have moved ever so slightly. That's right. The last 12
:13:50. > :13:54.months have told us, as you have seen with the
:13:55. > :13:56.numbers, consumer spending in a lot of Western countries is holding up
:13:57. > :14:00.well, including here. That is what gives us cause for to miss. That has
:14:01. > :14:05.been the story for this year. We have had these bouts of volatility,
:14:06. > :14:12.but overall both has been OK. We will get more bumps in 2016, but we
:14:13. > :14:15.think consumer spending will hold. From my point of view, I feel like I
:14:16. > :14:22.have been watching central banks all over the place - Japan, the European
:14:23. > :14:29.Central Bank, the Fed, the UK to a degree, and China. Six interest rate
:14:30. > :14:32.cuts this year. It has been about what central banks have been doing
:14:33. > :14:37.that has led the way in terms of how we are reacting. And the central
:14:38. > :14:41.banks start to do different things, which affects currency markets a
:14:42. > :14:49.lot. So you go volatility through currency markets.
:14:50. > :14:56.renminbi voting has created some uncertainty. Everybody wants to see
:14:57. > :15:02.a slightly higher inflation number, believe it or not. We have spent a
:15:03. > :15:05.lot of time worrying about deflation. The focus for all central
:15:06. > :15:10.banks will be a hope to see inflation numbers edged up a bit. We
:15:11. > :15:11.will be back, but thanks for now, Mike.
:15:12. > :15:21.- about winning the royal seal florist to the stars and to royalty
:15:22. > :15:35.You're with Business Live from BBC News.
:15:36. > :15:42.More people are expected to work Christmas Day this year. Research
:15:43. > :15:45.suggests the number is at its highest level in three years, with
:15:46. > :15:49.nurses, doctors and chefs and police officers among those who will be on
:15:50. > :16:00.duty as normal. As will some of our colleagues here at the BBC. Steph
:16:01. > :16:06.McGovern is at a Christmas market in York.
:16:07. > :16:10.The New York Brass Band will be playing for us. But we are here to
:16:11. > :16:15.talk about how important it is to the economy. Give us a tune.
:16:16. > :16:20.tell you, but there is over 100 tell you, but there is over 100
:16:21. > :16:23.stalls here dotted around this city. They are selling all kinds of dimp
:16:24. > :16:27.things. It is important for small business. ?250 million to the
:16:28. > :16:32.economy. Here it added something like ?50 million extra to York's
:16:33. > :16:35.money that they're making. We can talk to Rupert, one of the
:16:36. > :16:40.for you? We sell woolly hats and for you? We sell woolly hats and
:16:41. > :16:50.jackets and gloves and we're having a ball at the moment.
:16:51. > :16:55.It is still mild and you'd like to see it colder... We need some frost.
:16:56. > :17:00.Please, can we have some frost? There is people who would like snow
:17:01. > :17:05.full-time on this business, don't full-time on this business, don't
:17:06. > :17:08.business. Where are you when you're business. Where are you when you're
:17:09. > :17:13.not here? We're in York Market normally four days a week. Is this a
:17:14. > :17:23.big part of your business? It is a hugely important time of year for
:17:24. > :17:29.us. If we didn't have them, we us. If we didn't have them, we
:17:30. > :17:35.wouldn't be in business, I don't think. That was Steph McGovern
:17:36. > :17:42.setting a sense of how the people feel about the festive season ahead.
:17:43. > :17:48.We are talking about interest rates again when they will rise. We talked
:17:49. > :17:53.the Bank of England has signalled the Bank of England has signalled
:17:54. > :17:58.that a rate rise in the UK could be further away than we expect. He says
:17:59. > :18:04.it is downward pressure on inflation that could push back a rate rise
:18:05. > :18:16.below the record level of 0.5% which it has been at since March 2009.
:18:17. > :18:21.Our top story, global commodities fail to gain ground as the year
:18:22. > :18:28.draws to a close as supply outstrips demand around the world.
:18:29. > :18:34.We will be following that story for you.
:18:35. > :18:35.Whether it's Christmas, Valentine's Day or Mothers day,
:18:36. > :18:37.there's a chance flowers will feature somewhere
:18:38. > :18:46.Buying and selling flowers is big business.
:18:47. > :18:52.In the UK alone the florist industry is worth ?1 billion a year -
:18:53. > :19:00.But the future is not so rosy for the traditional florist,
:19:01. > :19:02.its goods are perceived as a luxury when compared to what's
:19:03. > :19:07.However, the industry of events and party flowers has ballooned.
:19:08. > :19:08.For the rich and famous - they're actually buying more
:19:09. > :19:10.and more flowers for sophisticated creations and elaborate looks.
:19:11. > :19:14.He arranged the flowers for Prince Charles' wedding in 2005
:19:15. > :19:17.and the flowers for the wedding of his niece, Zara Philips.
:19:18. > :19:19.He has also just completed the Christmas Transformation
:19:20. > :19:22.at the Ritz Hotel in London, a job he's done for ten years.
:19:23. > :19:28.Paul Thomas is the founder of Paul Thomas Flowers.
:19:29. > :19:36.You have brought some. It is a shame you can't smell that we can smell.
:19:37. > :19:40.They smell incredible. It smells Christmassy here today. Paul welcome
:19:41. > :19:45.to the programme. Let's start with how you got into this. You have been
:19:46. > :19:50.doing this 25 years or longer? Over 30 years, yes. How did you begin?
:19:51. > :19:53.What was the initial impetus to start doing this, to become a
:19:54. > :20:01.florist? I wanted to be a florist since I was ten years old. I saw
:20:02. > :20:02.episode of Upstairs Downstairs and episode of Upstairs
:20:03. > :20:03.saw the table decorated in an saw the table decorated in an
:20:04. > :20:09.elaborate way and just loved it and that's, "That's what I want to do. I
:20:10. > :20:12.want to create wonderful tables and transform rooms and make magic."
:20:13. > :20:15.What was your path? You're a ten-year-old boy at school and you
:20:16. > :20:20.want to be a florist, how do you get there? I'm fortunate. I felt very
:20:21. > :20:27.clear vocation of what I wanted to do. You follow that course. I went
:20:28. > :20:30.the best florist in London. I went the best florist in London. I went
:20:31. > :20:35.to them for advice. They directed me to a man called Kennet Turner who
:20:36. > :20:40.was transforming the flower industry, a genius. And I was so
:20:41. > :20:44.fortunate to work for him for a few years and that just unlocked what
:20:45. > :20:46.was within me. He is still your mentor, isn't he? He is. Even now?
:20:47. > :20:52.Very much so. Zblurp telling me some Very much so. Zblurp telling me some
:20:53. > :20:56.fascinating stories -- you were telling me some fascinating stories
:20:57. > :21:00.when you were a young man and you had Jacqui Onassis ringing in and
:21:01. > :21:07.you cut her off the phone by accident. Yes. Tell us what that was
:21:08. > :21:12.like. I imagine tantrums the stars coming in and wanting something, it
:21:13. > :21:20.is not what they desire, how do you manage those emotions? It was a
:21:21. > :21:24.baptism of fire. I came from a nice family in Reigate and suddenly it is
:21:25. > :21:28.into London and this remarkable man I worked with and it was quite
:21:29. > :21:32.traumatic. But I remained focussed on what I was doing and I think we
:21:33. > :21:36.all shared the love of flowers together and I think that's what
:21:37. > :21:41.gets you through it and you just continue on that path really. How do
:21:42. > :21:44.you divide your time? What you love doing is clearly the creative part
:21:45. > :21:49.you have got to make money, it is a you have got to make money, it is a
:21:50. > :21:49.business? So you're going to have to business? So you're going to have to
:21:50. > :21:54.spend your time on the accounting and the admin and the hiring and the
:21:55. > :21:59.firing and all the boring stuff, but you'd rather spend your time on the
:22:00. > :22:03.creative stuff. How do you divide your time? These days it is too much
:22:04. > :22:05.on the administration side of things and meetings and I never when I
:22:06. > :22:11.started thought I'd ever spend time started thought I'd ever spend time
:22:12. > :22:12.at a computer, you know, now you at a computer, you know, now you
:22:13. > :22:15.spend so much time doing your buying lists and ordering and designing and
:22:16. > :22:21.of course, just generally running a business. I'm fortunate, I have an
:22:22. > :22:25.amazing team that support me a great deal which does give me the
:22:26. > :22:32.it is very, very important to me to it is very, very important to me to
:22:33. > :22:37.be present and take part and be part of it. That's why I got into the
:22:38. > :22:44.industry and I don't want to stop making things, you know, and it
:22:45. > :22:51.lucky. You are Paul Thomas, thank lucky. You are Paul Thomas, thank
:22:52. > :23:05.you very much for coming in and your florist is in Mayfair.
:23:06. > :23:10.New ideas being launched in the New Year.
:23:11. > :23:11.You can leave those because they smell amazing!
:23:12. > :23:15.No problem. The American firm, Space X,
:23:16. > :23:21.has successfully landed a Falcon-Nine booster rocket back
:23:22. > :23:26.in an upright position at Cape Canaveral
:23:27. > :23:27.after it successfully The firm which was founded
:23:28. > :23:31.by Elon Musk has a $1.6 billion contract with NASA to send supplies
:23:32. > :23:34.to the International Space Station. It's a major step forward
:23:35. > :23:37.in the company's effort to develop reusable rockets and reduce the cost
:23:38. > :23:42.of private space operations. A huge breakthrough for them as you
:23:43. > :23:52.say and this is the company, Space X. It was founded in 2002. Space X
:23:53. > :23:57.is based in California. According to is based in California.
:23:58. > :23:59.their website they employ over 3,000 their website they employ over 3,000
:24:00. > :24:03.people. What they did was with this unmanned rocket, launch it from
:24:04. > :24:07.Florida. When it got to 200 kilometres up, the booster part then
:24:08. > :24:12.took 11 satellites up into orbit into space and the tall white bit of
:24:13. > :24:16.the rocket, which they call the first stage, then came back safely
:24:17. > :24:23.down-to-earthment they landed it on a giant X, in Cape Canaveral, ten
:24:24. > :24:23.minutes after it had taken off. They minutes after it had taken off.
:24:24. > :24:25.have tried three similar missions have tried three similar missions
:24:26. > :24:29.before, in those ones they tried to land it on a platform in the ocean
:24:30. > :24:35.and they failed. This time, it was the first time they aimed for dry
:24:36. > :24:38.land and it worked. They have got ?1.6 billion contract with Nasa to
:24:39. > :24:43.take supplies up to the International Space Station and just
:24:44. > :24:47.six months ago they had a failed mission which destroyed millions of
:24:48. > :24:49.dollars worth of cargo so there was a lot riding on this one.
:24:50. > :24:55.That was Ben Bland. Mike Amey is joining
:24:56. > :25:04.us again to discuss. How to get investors to save the
:25:05. > :25:10.planet? We have seen the discussions in Paris theically mate change
:25:11. > :25:15.talks. One way is to tax companies. It seems controversial? There is a
:25:16. > :25:20.controversy in there and the point of the commentary which is fair is
:25:21. > :25:23.there is much more uncertainty with green energy and the price you
:25:24. > :25:33.receive for it. There is two-ways you can approach that, you can
:25:34. > :25:34.the green output or you can tax the the green output or you can tax the
:25:35. > :25:37.so-called cheaper, but more polluting route in the meantime.
:25:38. > :25:40.This is one route. It is one of the more controversial ways of doing it,
:25:41. > :25:49.but we are going to have to do something along those lines. It is
:25:50. > :25:54.the carrot and the stick argument. It is persuasion or penalty.
:25:55. > :25:59.There will be more business news throughout the day on the BBC Live
:26:00. > :26:01.webpage and on World Business Report.