:00:00. > :00:27.Latin America's largest economy is being battered on all sides.
:00:28. > :00:29.Brazil was once a star of the emerging markets
:00:30. > :00:41.but the global slowdown, commodities slump and corruption
:00:42. > :00:48.Also in the programme...we're taking a look at the economic plans
:00:49. > :00:51.of Democrat Hillary Clinton - this time yesterday it was all
:00:52. > :00:53.about Super Tuesday and we picked apart the economics
:00:54. > :00:57.of Republican Donald Trump as the race for White House hots up.
:00:58. > :00:59.And are we seeing a turning point for financial markets
:01:00. > :01:03.Oil is rising - emerging market currencies are strengthening -
:01:04. > :01:18.having that conversation in about five minutes.
:01:19. > :01:48.Today we'll be getting the inside track on Scott Scott -
:01:49. > :01:51.a US law firm - specialising in class actions that has
:01:52. > :01:54.We have its managing partner David Scott on the programme.
:01:55. > :01:57.All week we've been hearing from businesses giving their view
:01:58. > :01:58.on whether Britain should leave the EU.
:01:59. > :02:02.Do you think that it's a decision for the individual or is it helpful
:02:03. > :02:08.We start in Brazil - as it struggles with the worst
:02:09. > :02:12.In a few hours' time official figures are expected to confirm
:02:13. > :02:15.the once booming economy shrank last year at the steepest rate in more
:02:16. > :02:20.Analysts including the International Monetary Fund think Brazil's economy
:02:21. > :02:23.contracted almost 4% last year - the worst performance of any
:02:24. > :02:43.1.5 million jobs disappeared last year - the fastest pace of job
:02:44. > :02:55.Part of the reason is the slump in commodity prices.
:02:56. > :02:59.The slowdown in China means there's far less demand for the minerals
:03:00. > :03:01.and other raw materials Brazil produces.
:03:02. > :03:03.And as an oil exporter - Brazil's been hit hard
:03:04. > :03:07.And back at home - a big corruption scandal
:03:08. > :03:09.at state-run oil producer Petrobras has implicated key politicians
:03:10. > :03:10.and business leaders - shaking the government
:03:11. > :03:13.of President Dilma Rousseff and the confidence of foreign
:03:14. > :03:19.Himena Blanco is the Head of Americas analysis at Verisk
:03:20. > :03:28.Thank you for joining us. We ran through those numbers, up to 4%
:03:29. > :03:28.contraction in the economy, and to almost 11% in
:03:29. > :03:36.inflation. This is not just numbers, this is major changes in
:03:37. > :03:41.the way that people live and what they can afford to eat, the jobs
:03:42. > :03:42.they can do and the access to sanitation, how long they can
:03:43. > :03:45.stay in formal education, what is this like on the
:03:46. > :03:51.ground for people in Brazil? This is the main risk the legacy of Dilma
:03:52. > :03:52.Rousseff's party. success in improving the standards
:03:53. > :04:17.of living of millions of Brazilians. We're talking about people losing
:04:18. > :04:21.their jobs, struggling to pay rent and for transport while at the same
:04:22. > :04:26.time seeing the cost of those services continuing to increase. But
:04:27. > :04:29.we are also seeing a much more profound or structural struggle,
:04:30. > :04:33.deliver basic facilities, so for example we
:04:34. > :04:40.will see a delay in sanitation programmes and connecting households
:04:41. > :04:44.to storage systems, and that can have a very important impact on for
:04:45. > :04:48.example the health of the population and the spread of
:04:49. > :04:50.communicable diseases. Like the Zika virus,
:04:51. > :04:55.is a relatively new democracy. It has
:04:56. > :05:04.from where it was in the 70s as a military dictatorship. What chance
:05:05. > :05:09.is there that we will see any kind of income redistribution? Is there
:05:10. > :05:11.any chance Brazil might improve itself at all or is it so tied to
:05:12. > :05:18.commodities that think there's a silver lining to
:05:19. > :05:25.what we've been talking about especially in terms of the
:05:26. > :05:26.corruption scandal and democracy, we are seeing Brazilians much more
:05:27. > :05:33.interested in how the state is managing the tax money that
:05:34. > :05:38.they are paying. That is why this corruption scandal is so important
:05:39. > :05:42.for many Brazilians, many have taken to the streets demanding justice.
:05:43. > :05:47.The interesting thing, something that sets Brazil apart from its
:05:48. > :05:52.neighbours is that corruption allegations are being investigated,
:05:53. > :05:55.the judiciary is independent, we are seeing a moderate improvement in the
:05:56. > :05:59.strength of institutions in Brazil through the investigation of this
:06:00. > :06:03.case and a case before it. There is a slight silver lining.
:06:04. > :06:09.This is not good news for everyday Brazilians going out looking for a
:06:10. > :06:13.job now but I think the company is looking to invest in Brazil, and
:06:14. > :06:19.that is the answer to the country's problems investment, that will
:06:20. > :06:23.return growth in the long term. The companies looking at the country,
:06:24. > :06:26.this provides a silver lining because institutions are becoming
:06:27. > :06:29.stronger. Very briefly, can Brazil bounce back from this? I think so,
:06:30. > :06:39.eventually, we won't see it in 2016, we might see
:06:40. > :06:44.very low growth in 2017 but I think that Brazil will remain the largest
:06:45. > :06:48.market in the region. It is very difficult for any business
:06:49. > :06:52.wanting to operate in Latin America not to have some form of
:06:53. > :06:54.presence in Brazil, even if at the moment they may be
:06:55. > :07:00.struggling with an increase in social unrest and political risk.
:07:01. > :07:09.Thank you so much for joining us. the news about growth, or not, as
:07:10. > :07:14.the case it be, we will update you. Let's move on.
:07:15. > :07:16.The mining company Samarco has agreed to pay $1.1 billion
:07:17. > :07:19.in damages following a major environmental disaster in Brazil.
:07:20. > :07:22.In November, two of its dams ruptured - causing the mudslide that
:07:23. > :07:24.destroyed the town of Mariana in southern Brazil and killed 19
:07:25. > :07:27.A new train station opens later on Thursday -
:07:28. > :07:41.on the site of New York's World Trade Center.
:07:42. > :07:43.A new train station opens later on Thursday -
:07:44. > :07:52.on the site of New York's World Trade Center.
:07:53. > :07:54.the cost has spiralled to more than $3.8 billion -
:07:55. > :07:57.making it the most expensive railway station in the world.
:07:58. > :07:59.Shares in Toshiba have closed 7% higher on reports the firm
:08:00. > :08:02.is about to secure substantial new loans for its restructuring efforts.
:08:03. > :08:05.The company is in talks with several Japanese lenders over raising funds
:08:06. > :08:07.in the wake of a massive accounting scandal.
:08:08. > :08:10.Let's take a look at the Live page on the BBC website -
:08:11. > :08:13.and one story is dominating this morning - it's the comments
:08:14. > :08:14.from the French economy minister - Emmanuel Macron.
:08:15. > :08:16.We have them here. He says that France would
:08:17. > :08:20.relocate its migrant camp from Calais to Britain and roll out the
:08:21. > :08:25.red carpet for bankers fleeing if the UK leads the EU. He's headed to
:08:26. > :08:27.a summit with various leaders and economy ministers will be meeting.
:08:28. > :08:32.This is one of the key discussions going on in Europe with many
:08:33. > :08:39.arguments for and against. We will cover some of them later. We will.
:08:40. > :08:42.And the German finance minister will be speaking in London today, no
:08:43. > :08:46.doubt giving his views on the EU question as well.
:08:47. > :08:48.A day after Moody's cut China's outlook to negative,
:08:49. > :08:51.the credit rating agency has now cut the outlook of 38
:08:52. > :08:58.Everyone will be looking to the China National People's
:08:59. > :09:00.Congress this weekend to see what new stimulus measures
:09:01. > :09:12.How worried are people about what is going on with the downgrades
:09:13. > :09:20.it is part of an ongoing narrative that we have been hearing from
:09:21. > :09:22.analysts in China over the last couple of months.
:09:23. > :09:29.As you rightly say, the downgrade from Moody's yesterday on the
:09:30. > :09:35.outlook of China took a lot of people by surprise. The fact that it
:09:36. > :09:42.has downgraded its outlook on 38 state owned firms, including China's
:09:43. > :09:47.largest firm in some of its banks, is going to deal a further blow to
:09:48. > :09:51.the country's state owned enterprises sector. The outlook has
:09:52. > :09:55.been reduced to negative from stable. This will also put pressure
:09:56. > :10:00.on Beijing as it attempts to clean up its sector and reform what are
:10:01. > :10:05.known as zombie films, massive companies that are living of debt
:10:06. > :10:09.and struggling to stay alive. The problem is that these companies
:10:10. > :10:15.employ millions of people, so if they are shut down, where do these
:10:16. > :10:19.people go? It is a theme we have heard frequently recently and it
:10:20. > :10:23.will be top of the agenda when China's leaders meet at the National
:10:24. > :10:28.People's Congress this weekend. Thank you. Certainly a big focus at
:10:29. > :10:30.the end of this week. All that news is not enough to tempt investors off
:10:31. > :10:43.financial markets today. The yen has been weak in the last
:10:44. > :10:47.few days. That has helped. Wall Street ended the day keeping hold of
:10:48. > :10:52.the gains they made the day before. Let's look at Europe. Where we are
:10:53. > :10:58.down slightly the fact that perhaps the appetite for risk is back. We've
:10:59. > :11:02.got the price of oil going up, gold going down, safe havens like the yen
:11:03. > :11:11.off the boil. That kind of sentiment seems to be on the market. First,
:11:12. > :11:15.news of another story in the US. The man who helped to kick-start
:11:16. > :11:20.America's sale revolution died in a car crash on Wednesday one day after
:11:21. > :11:26.he was accused of conspiring to rig bids for oil and gas leases. The
:11:27. > :11:29.former boss of Chesapeake Energy is credited with helping change the
:11:30. > :11:36.energy world, yet controversial business practices helped cost him
:11:37. > :11:42.his job. Hewlett-Packard enterprise which is made up of the hardware,
:11:43. > :11:45.software and servers side of the business, turns in its first-quarter
:11:46. > :11:52.earnings this Thursday. You may remember that last week HP
:11:53. > :11:55.Incorporated, the business side of the company, reported decent
:11:56. > :12:01.earnings, yet investors were not too happy with the company's outlook.
:12:02. > :12:10.And has the largest books dare - book store chain in the US changed?
:12:11. > :12:11.It is now selling toys online as it tries to compete with retailers like
:12:12. > :12:13.Amazon. Joining us is Richard Dunbar,
:12:14. > :12:22.Investment Director We will go through some market
:12:23. > :12:26.stories. We have seen the biggest rise in the Asia-Pacific region in
:12:27. > :12:31.terms of shares since August. I wonder if this rally is sustainable
:12:32. > :12:34.or will it fade? Markets have been spooked in the last couple of months
:12:35. > :12:39.about the US and we've seen better numbers from there. They've been
:12:40. > :12:43.spooked by China, and things are not getting any worse there, and they've
:12:44. > :12:48.been spooked by the oil price and we've seen some stability and that's
:12:49. > :12:54.that it is encouraging to see more stability in markets, generally come
:12:55. > :13:00.in Asia in particular, taking into consideration some of the currencies
:13:01. > :13:04.which have been selling in the last few weeks. Interesting to see the
:13:05. > :13:11.oil price rising and also metals like iron ore going up a lot. In
:13:12. > :13:15.terms of what moves first, when things improve, like sentiment about
:13:16. > :13:19.the global outlook for the global economy etc, what tends to give
:13:20. > :13:26.signs first in markets that things are going to improve? Markets are
:13:27. > :13:30.doing what they are meant to do, every day into the office I see a
:13:31. > :13:34.mining company stating that it is reducing capital expenditure and
:13:35. > :13:38.digging fewer holes and we will see less production. Similarly, we are
:13:39. > :13:42.seeing better news from the US, which should fill demand for these
:13:43. > :13:47.products, better demand or expectations thereof, and less
:13:48. > :13:54.supply, so arise in metals prices, the invisible hand of the market is
:13:55. > :13:59.doing its job. For once! Richard, thank you very much. We'll have you
:14:00. > :14:03.and later to look at the newspapers. Still to come is brash US style law
:14:04. > :14:08.coming to British shores? There is a gulf between the British legal
:14:09. > :14:14.system and the one in the US. We will be talking to the boss of the
:14:15. > :14:16.US law firm about how to take on big business here. You are watching
:14:17. > :14:24.Business Live from BBC News. UK car workers at Rolls-Royce have
:14:25. > :14:27.been sent an e-mail from German parent company BMW, highlighting
:14:28. > :14:30.what it sees as the risks of a vote Meanwhile, Lord Rose,
:14:31. > :14:33.the head of the campaign to keep Britain in the European Union,
:14:34. > :14:36.suggests that wages of low skilled workers could rise in
:14:37. > :14:51.the event of a Brexit. We knew the debate was going to get
:14:52. > :14:54.more and more intense. Today is quite a big thing, isn't it?
:14:55. > :15:00.That's right and it is achieving some focus. Both sides are looking
:15:01. > :15:04.at exactly what the results would be of Britain leaving the EU. The
:15:05. > :15:09.difficult part is nobody knows because it would be a question of
:15:10. > :15:13.renegotiating Britain's position towards the EU. That is the
:15:14. > :15:18.difficulty many companies face. What would that period of uncertainty be,
:15:19. > :15:23.and for how long, and what would be the final result, would they gain a
:15:24. > :15:27.preferential position, or not? That is the question. BMW has written to
:15:28. > :15:31.its workers a Rolls-Royce explaining that it feels Britain would be
:15:32. > :15:34.better inside the EU. It makes it plain to its workers that isn't a
:15:35. > :15:48.decision to be handed out by the employer. What it is trying to say
:15:49. > :15:58.to car companies and workers here is that it wants to stay part of it.
:15:59. > :16:03.Many work very closely together. I should say, though, that there are
:16:04. > :16:08.200 small companies, and I find this interesting, who are saying they
:16:09. > :16:11.would like to leave the EU. These are British companies. Slightly
:16:12. > :16:13.counterintuitive. You would imagine small companies would feel
:16:14. > :16:18.particularly exposed. But in some cases what they resent is some of
:16:19. > :16:23.the regulation they are forced accent as part of the EU. Some of
:16:24. > :16:26.them presumably trade outside the EU and they feel they wouldn't have to
:16:27. > :16:34.accent that if Britain were not within the trading block. -- forced
:16:35. > :16:42.to act set -- accept. We have to wade through all of the
:16:43. > :16:45.arguments before the referendum. This is dominoes results. They have
:16:46. > :16:57.done really well and they think they have been helped by record cheese
:16:58. > :16:59.prices. -- Domino's. INAUDIBLE
:17:00. > :17:10.You're watching Business Live - our top story - we're bad news
:17:11. > :17:13.-- You're watching Business Live - our top story - we're expecting more
:17:14. > :17:15.bad news from Brazil, expected to confirm Latin America's
:17:16. > :17:17.largest economy is slipping deeper into recession,
:17:18. > :17:21.in 2015 at the steepest rate in more than two decades.
:17:22. > :17:24.When we have that news, I'm sure it will be on the website, so check it
:17:25. > :17:25.out. Now let's get the Inside Track
:17:26. > :17:27.on the battle between When you think of class action
:17:28. > :17:31.lawsuits, perhaps the US movie Erin Brockovich comes to mind -
:17:32. > :17:33.ordinary citizens taking Or do you see ambulance chasers -
:17:34. > :17:37.lawyers making a fast buck specialising in class actions,
:17:38. > :17:49.often against big companies. The firm is currently involved
:17:50. > :17:52.in anti-cartel litigation in the US against 12 banks, achieving
:17:53. > :18:00.$809 million in settlements to date. The firm has just
:18:01. > :18:05.opened their London office, in what they've described as "a move
:18:06. > :18:07.to prepare for a possible European front in the forex battle
:18:08. > :18:12.against the world's largest banks." With me now is the firm's managing
:18:13. > :18:28.partner, David Scott. -- welcome to the programme. The
:18:29. > :18:32.foreign exchange and the reading investigation going on right around
:18:33. > :18:35.the world first. Libel has been tough to prove and it has been very
:18:36. > :18:43.difficult litigation all over the world, why do you think Forex means
:18:44. > :18:52.you will have a better chance of success? -- Libor has been tough.
:18:53. > :18:59.Libor Has been tough. In the other case we allege that in addition to
:19:00. > :19:03.fixing the 4pm fix, there was also a conspiracy to manipulate. One would
:19:04. > :19:09.have been injured, regardless of what side of the trade you were on.
:19:10. > :19:13.That is the difference between the two.
:19:14. > :19:21.Just explain to those watching, you are representing who in this, and
:19:22. > :19:26.who are you chasing for damages? In the US case we represent everybody
:19:27. > :19:32.who has been impacted through the conspiracy fix foreign exchange.
:19:33. > :19:37.Because of the mechanism, it means we represent everybody who was
:19:38. > :19:46.trading. That, by default, is generally very large investing
:19:47. > :19:54.companies. In the European slashed UK market, we are representing large
:19:55. > :19:58.multinational pension schemes, large traders, who have been impacted
:19:59. > :20:05.again by the alleged conspiracy. -- Europe/Uk market. Do you see a
:20:06. > :20:09.difference in the level of litigation? When times are good
:20:10. > :20:16.people do not sue each other as much. On some level there is a
:20:17. > :20:21.correlation between what happened in 2008 and the drying up of the
:20:22. > :20:25.market. What seems to me, at least, on almost a daily occurrence, some
:20:26. > :20:29.new governmental investigation into financial institution misconduct.
:20:30. > :20:35.You have the foreign exchange scandal, the Libor scandal, the
:20:36. > :20:43.sovereign debt scandal... I think what happened was when it dried up
:20:44. > :20:50.banks needed a new avenue in which to seek profit. Unfortunately a lot
:20:51. > :20:56.of banks appear to have been engaging in conduct which is
:20:57. > :21:00.questionable. To be clear, you will be going after the banks themselves,
:21:01. > :21:06.the banks will argue it was individuals behaviour that we were
:21:07. > :21:11.not aware of, we were not across, they were secretly doing what they
:21:12. > :21:18.were doing. -- individuals' behaviour. How will you go about it?
:21:19. > :21:22.If you look in the US, I believe four banks pleaded guilty to
:21:23. > :21:26.anti-trust violations at the corporate level. The corporation
:21:27. > :21:32.themselves has pleaded guilty to the conduct. Moreover I think it was the
:21:33. > :21:38.FCA, in their report, they found a systemic failure to have policy and
:21:39. > :21:43.procedures in place to prevent this type of conduct. In fact, some of
:21:44. > :21:47.the employees were meeting with the compliance officers and general
:21:48. > :21:51.counsel to ask if the conduct they were engaging in in chat rooms was
:21:52. > :22:01.violating the internal policies within the corporation. To argue it
:22:02. > :22:08.was rogue employees, I don't think really has... I don't think it has
:22:09. > :22:12.legs to stand on. So interesting. We could keep talking about this, but
:22:13. > :22:17.thank you very much, and best of luck with all of your cases. Thank
:22:18. > :22:19.you very much. We will keep an eye on this, I'm sure it will be one
:22:20. > :22:23.about stories again. If you were watching on Wednesday
:22:24. > :22:25.as we analysed the results of Super Tuesday in the US -
:22:26. > :22:28.the economics of Republican Donald Well today, we're taking
:22:29. > :22:32.a look at the economic plans of Democrat Hilary Clinton
:22:33. > :22:34.as the race towards the White House Jeremy Howell explains the thinking
:22:35. > :22:49.behind "Clintonomics". Hillary Clinton says ordinary
:22:50. > :22:55.American wage earners are disillusioned with the economic
:22:56. > :22:59.system. Wage rises are scarce, jobs are insecure. She has a three
:23:00. > :23:05.pronged strategy to restore their says in it. The first is a push for
:23:06. > :23:09.strong economic growth. -- faith. She wants to improve America's
:23:10. > :23:13.infrastructure including airports, roads, and bridges. She wants to
:23:14. > :23:19.help more young people go to college by lowering their tuition costs. The
:23:20. > :23:25.second problem is fair growth. She wants to increase the minimum wage
:23:26. > :23:32.to $15 an hour. And she would impose a fair shares tax on people who earn
:23:33. > :23:38.over $5 million a year. The third prong is long-term growth. She would
:23:39. > :23:42.use the tax system to punish investors who hold shares only for a
:23:43. > :23:46.short while, and reward those who hang onto them the long term. But
:23:47. > :23:52.even by her own calculations, her new spending measures would cost $25
:23:53. > :24:02.billion a year more than her new taxes would raise.
:24:03. > :24:15.Buber has big plans for the world. -- Uber. If the chief executive is
:24:16. > :24:20.to leave, which I think you will, they could be losing even more
:24:21. > :24:26.money. It talks to the ambition and the scale of the ambition of Uber.
:24:27. > :24:34.They are hated by those with whom they compete. Is it sustainable if
:24:35. > :24:38.their expansion plans are as big as they say they are, and we don't
:24:39. > :24:42.doubt that, and yet the money is going out extremely fast, how will
:24:43. > :24:49.it continue? Will it get some people who believe in them? It isn't
:24:50. > :24:54.sustainable. Companies have to make profit and generate cash. That will
:24:55. > :24:57.have to come. Looking at their accounts, it seems they are able to
:24:58. > :25:03.attract significant equity capital investors. And they are able to
:25:04. > :25:07.attract very significant debt from the banks. They are able to finance
:25:08. > :25:11.it. The scale of ambition is clear when you look at the results. A
:25:12. > :25:18.force to be reckoned with. Keep your eyes on Uber. It has been great to
:25:19. > :25:22.have you on the programme. And thank you for your company. As ever, there
:25:23. > :25:26.is a lot more going on in business which we don't have time to mention
:25:27. > :25:29.in the programme. Do have a look at the website.
:25:30. > :25:34.There will be more business news throughout the day on the BBC Live
:25:35. > :25:50.web page and on World Business Report.
:25:51. > :25:57.After another cold start, Thursday will be a half reasonable day for
:25:58. > :26:02.most. Fewer showers than yesterday and the winds will be lighter. For
:26:03. > :26:03.that we have to thank the fact this area of low pressure which gave us