:00:00. > :00:11.Could it be the first cut in seven years?
:00:12. > :00:14.The Bank of England says it is ready for action to stave off
:00:15. > :00:16.a Brexit recession - so will it slash interest
:00:17. > :00:38.Live from London, that's our top story on Thursday 14th July.
:00:39. > :00:48.Rates have been at a record low since March 2009, but they could be
:00:49. > :00:52.And after a reshuffle of the top team in government,
:00:53. > :00:54.the UK's new finance minister says there's no need for
:00:55. > :00:58.Also in the programme: China's appetite for chicken is back,
:00:59. > :01:01.as the owner of KFC and Pizza Hut gives an upbeat assessment
:01:02. > :01:05.And as well as news of a rate cut, could there also be
:01:06. > :01:16.But are Central Banks running out of tools?
:01:17. > :01:18.And we meet the London teenager who ditched university,
:01:19. > :01:21.launched his own business and now runs a tech firm in the heart
:01:22. > :01:26.Entrepreneur James Proud tells us his story - and how building
:01:27. > :01:31.websites at the age of 12 set him up for a lucrative career in tech.
:01:32. > :01:35.And doom and gloom or great new opportunity?
:01:36. > :01:48.Are you sick of the warnings about Brexit, or are
:01:49. > :01:57.And we meet the London teenager who ditched university,
:01:58. > :01:59.Are you sick of the warnings about Brexit, or are
:02:00. > :02:01.they necessary reminders of uncertain times?
:02:02. > :02:10.Get in touch, use the hashtag BBC Biz Live.
:02:11. > :02:13.We start here in London, where in a few hours' time the Bank
:02:14. > :02:16.of England will decide what action it can take to shore up the UK
:02:17. > :02:19.economy in the wake of last month's vote to leave the EU.
:02:20. > :02:22.And first on the cards is a likely cut
:02:23. > :02:27.Well, before the vote, bank governor Mark Carney warned
:02:28. > :02:30.of the risks Brexit would pose to the economy.
:02:31. > :02:33.Last week - after the vote - he said those risks had already
:02:34. > :02:44.One survey of consumer confidence has seen its biggest ever fall.
:02:45. > :02:46.It's a similar picture for the service and
:02:47. > :02:52.Interest rates are already at a record low of half a per cent -
:02:53. > :02:54.where they have been for the past seven years.
:02:55. > :02:56.They were initially slashed at the height of the global
:02:57. > :03:00.Most are predicting another cut today - by a quarter of a percent.
:03:01. > :03:10.And it's thought the cost of borrowing could be ultimately
:03:11. > :03:14.Since the referendum the Bank of England has already eased capital
:03:15. > :03:16.requirements for Banks - basically how much they have
:03:17. > :03:19.It hopes that will free up $200 billion for lending.
:03:20. > :03:22.But many economists think that won't be enough to stave off
:03:23. > :03:24.recession and suggest more Quantitative Easing or QE -
:03:25. > :03:26.printing billions of pounds of new money might be needed.
:03:27. > :03:45.Give us your take on what might happen. Most of the market thinks
:03:46. > :03:53.there will be a rate cut. Most of those people think it will be 0.25%.
:03:54. > :03:57.Mark Carney has said before the referendum vote that he wasn't keen
:03:58. > :04:02.on a negative interest rate, so I don't think the bank will be
:04:03. > :04:06.hurrying to follow the bank of Japan, the European Central Bank in
:04:07. > :04:12.the central bank of Sweden, who have all played with negative interest
:04:13. > :04:17.rates, but that cut, I think, is in direct response to the EU
:04:18. > :04:20.referendum. It is not that long ago that Mark Carney was suggesting that
:04:21. > :04:26.the next rate change would be upward. That has completely changed
:04:27. > :04:30.since the referendum. There are fears here, held by lots of
:04:31. > :04:39.economist, not all but some, that Britain could be facing a referendum
:04:40. > :04:44.because of... Sorry, a recession, because of the uncertainty created
:04:45. > :04:49.by the referendum. The bank is responding to that. I spoke to an
:04:50. > :04:54.American economist who used to be a member of the monetary policy
:04:55. > :04:57.committee, and he thought there should be shock and awe. He thought
:04:58. > :05:01.they should go straight to zero to show that they are there to provide
:05:02. > :05:07.stability. I don't think they will go that far this time.
:05:08. > :05:11.The idea of central banks running out of tools - if they cut too soon,
:05:12. > :05:15.they get to appoint quickly where they have nothing else to offer.
:05:16. > :05:20.Some critics are saying it is too soon today because we don't know the
:05:21. > :05:24.Economists believe that the bank has Economists believe that the bank has
:05:25. > :05:28.to get ahead of the curve. If you cut into a recession, you are too
:05:29. > :05:33.late. Once the economy has reached that tipping point, cutting at that
:05:34. > :05:39.point may be too late. Lots of economists feel there should be now.
:05:40. > :05:42.The notion that they are running out of ammunition needs to be dealt with
:05:43. > :05:56.carefully. They have more asset -- asset purchasing they could do. They
:05:57. > :06:05.can do monetary easing for banks to provide credit, so there are stumps
:06:06. > :06:12.on -- spills some bullets left in Mark Carney's armoury.
:06:13. > :06:18.Let's hear what Filippo Hammond had his aid. We will have meetings
:06:19. > :06:22.today. We have two distinguished the short-term from the longer term. In
:06:23. > :06:26.the short-term, the decision to exit the EU came out a surprise to the
:06:27. > :06:32.markets. It came out a surprise to a lot of people. Therefore, it has
:06:33. > :06:37.rattled confidence and caused people to put plans on hold while they wait
:06:38. > :06:41.to see how things clarify. The fact we have moved quickly to resolve the
:06:42. > :06:46.question of the leadership of the Conservative Party and get a new
:06:47. > :06:51.Prime Minister installed I think will help to restore business and
:06:52. > :06:57.consumer confidence. What we have to do now is show, as a team, how we're
:06:58. > :07:01.going to bring negotiations with the EU forward, how we will support and
:07:02. > :07:06.stabilise the economy in the coming months in order to help that
:07:07. > :07:11.confidence to be restored as quickly as possible. Filippo Hammond,
:07:12. > :07:21.speaking on the first day of his new job. He will meet with -- Filippo
:07:22. > :07:41.Hammond... -- Philip Hammond. Fiscal policy,
:07:42. > :07:44.what the Government does on tax and spending, on borrowing, these are
:07:45. > :07:52.all big decisions that will really affect whether -- where the British
:07:53. > :07:59.economy goes. A busy day for you and us. For now,
:08:00. > :08:02.thank you very much. He is hotfooting it to the Bank of
:08:03. > :08:13.England. Do take a look at our website. You can follow us online. I
:08:14. > :08:15.will be there for the interest rate decision at midday. Stay with us for
:08:16. > :08:18.that, we will keep you up-to-date. In other news, the number of homes
:08:19. > :08:21.being put up for sale in the UK has seen its biggest fall in almost two
:08:22. > :08:25.decades - and demand from buyers has hit an eight year low -
:08:26. > :08:27.according to the Royal Institution It's the first survey
:08:28. > :08:31.of the UK housing market Surveyors expect house prices
:08:32. > :08:34.to fall across the UK Shares of Nintendo have
:08:35. > :08:41.continued to soar - up more than 16 per cent in Asia
:08:42. > :08:45.today - on the runaway success of Players have to track down virtual
:08:46. > :08:50.characters by moving Experts say the technology
:08:51. > :08:57.could also be used for marketing and that's what's got
:08:58. > :08:58.investors so excited. Nintendo's stock market value
:08:59. > :09:02.is up almost 60 per cent The coffee giant Starbucks has
:09:03. > :09:09.bought a stake in the premium The artisan Italian brand
:09:10. > :09:16.will become the exclusive food provider at all of the new luxury
:09:17. > :09:21.Starbucks outlets. This means that Starbucks will bake
:09:22. > :09:38.fresh goods onsite for the first Just reading that has made me
:09:39. > :09:43.hungry. But that looks nothing like a
:09:44. > :09:45.Starbucks. You are so cynical! Fresh pastry is
:09:46. > :10:14.awesome, whatever the source! Fast Retailing has cut its forecast.
:10:15. > :10:21.There is a bit of a glitch in Singapore. The stock market stock
:10:22. > :10:31.trading because of a technical glitch. The deadline passed and it
:10:32. > :10:34.did not restart. Our colleagues in Singapore will keep you up-to-date
:10:35. > :10:38.online. Not the first technical glitch.
:10:39. > :10:49.We are having a few here, actually. You would never know!
:10:50. > :10:55.She's in Singapore, where Yum Brands -
:10:56. > :10:58.the company behind Pizza Hut and FKC - has announced strong results.
:10:59. > :11:06.You might remember the company making the headlines after a series
:11:07. > :11:11.of food scandal several years ago in China. The company has recovered
:11:12. > :11:15.from that quite well, sales rising 6% in the second quarter, coming in
:11:16. > :11:26.at $3 billion. They raised their profit for grass, up 14%. -- their
:11:27. > :11:29.profit forecast. Consumer preference is shifting from fast food to
:11:30. > :11:34.healthier options, and the company has been localising their menu at
:11:35. > :11:40.KFC and Pizza Hut might well. Analysts say they are only appealing
:11:41. > :11:45.to people looking for cheaper options in smaller cities, so later
:11:46. > :11:48.this year, the company plans to split off its China business in
:11:49. > :11:59.order to make business decisions more quickly locally.
:12:00. > :12:02.Thank you. A quick look at the numbers. Shares in Japan ended
:12:03. > :12:15.higher for the fourth straight session. That is largely down to a
:12:16. > :12:19.weaker yen. That quick reshuffle of the Government and the promise of
:12:20. > :12:25.interest rate cuts have meant that the markets have started up.
:12:26. > :12:31.Stability is the one thing they crave at times like this. That
:12:32. > :12:35.interest rate decision is due at midday. I will be live in the City
:12:36. > :12:43.of London. All of our team are across that for you. Remember,
:12:44. > :12:46.America has been trying to raise the cost of borrowing and increase
:12:47. > :12:49.interest rates. At the start of the earnings season for the big
:12:50. > :12:54.investment bank, they will watch events here very closely indeed,
:12:55. > :12:57.because while low interest rates are good for some people, they are bad
:12:58. > :13:05.banks because they make less profitable.
:13:06. > :13:09.Low interest rates are here to stay, at least for a lot longer than
:13:10. > :13:15.anyone expected, but that means revenues for banks like JP Morgan
:13:16. > :13:19.will suffer. Ultralow interest rate make money mending not a very
:13:20. > :13:23.lucrative business. Banks need to make money elsewhere, but the
:13:24. > :13:28.China's economy slowing and with the price of oil and gas remaining low,
:13:29. > :13:32.markets are volatile. It means investors are more likely to wait on
:13:33. > :13:39.the sidelines and watch the storm pass. It also means banks will make
:13:40. > :13:45.less revenue from trading. JP Morgan has another problem - it employs
:13:46. > :13:48.some 16,000 people in Britain and makes around $8 billion in the UK,
:13:49. > :13:54.which means investors will be looking very closely to see just how
:13:55. > :14:01.the bank will be affected by Britain's impending exit from the
:14:02. > :14:05.EU. It is a question that investors will ask of all Brown 's -- of all
:14:06. > :14:30.banks. Simon Derrick is currency analyst at
:14:31. > :14:33.the bank of New York. Before we talk about helicopter money, which will
:14:34. > :14:44.explain, your prediction for today, the Bank of England? 0.25% down. I
:14:45. > :14:48.think they are going to cut. There has been clear guidance from Mr
:14:49. > :14:53.Carney. For him not to do that, the risk is that you get an astonishing
:14:54. > :14:57.rally of the pound. Shock and awe? I think he wants to give himself a
:14:58. > :15:00.second run. He is looking at this meeting and the one in August as
:15:01. > :15:08.being a package. He wants to give himself space, why do everything at
:15:09. > :15:12.once? When it comes to what everyone else is looking at, for everyone
:15:13. > :15:18.apart from the banks, it might mean there is more money in our pockets,
:15:19. > :15:30.that borrowing is cheaper? help exporters. You have seen that
:15:31. > :15:34.in the FTSE in the last couple of days out. Helicopter money is
:15:35. > :15:39.something people might believe might happen in Japan, the anchored by
:15:40. > :15:42.bonds, put them back into the market bonds, put them back into the market
:15:43. > :15:48.and never sell them back. Printing money and injecting it in. If you
:15:49. > :15:53.look at what has happened in Japan, the currency has weakened
:15:54. > :15:58.dramatically, it has a huge positive impact on the Japanese stock market.
:15:59. > :16:02.We will return soon, we will see you in five minutes.
:16:03. > :16:05.Don't say you don't learn anything on this programme, helicopter money.
:16:06. > :16:08.Skipping university and going straight to Silicon Valley.
:16:09. > :16:11.We'll be hearing from the London-born tech
:16:12. > :16:25.You're with Business Live from BBC News.
:16:26. > :16:30.Where will the UK property market go next?
:16:31. > :16:31.UK property investors are waiting to see how
:16:32. > :16:35.Today the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors published
:16:36. > :16:51.It is a pretty downbeat assessment of the state of the housing market,
:16:52. > :16:55.or what will become of it in the run-up to Brexit. It was largely to
:16:56. > :17:02.political shock, you would expect political shock, you would expect
:17:03. > :17:06.some uncertainty, and when you are making a major capital purchase like
:17:07. > :17:11.buying a home, you are going to become much more cautious. But we do
:17:12. > :17:16.need to consider this against the context that it is a short-term
:17:17. > :17:19.response, and it will be interesting to see what happens now, especially
:17:20. > :17:24.if we see the cut in base rates, and given that we have more political
:17:25. > :17:29.issue around the Conservative Party issue around the Conservative Party
:17:30. > :17:32.has been resolved. When you look at the detail of the survey, is it a
:17:33. > :17:36.nationwide issue, or does London nationwide issue, or does London
:17:37. > :17:39.dominate again? It is pretty much nationwide, that is what you would
:17:40. > :17:43.have expected. London is slightly different because it has had a
:17:44. > :17:48.prolonged period of very strong price growth. What we have seen in
:17:49. > :17:52.previous months is some indicators of a softening within the market,
:17:53. > :17:59.which is about the right time, and I expect this will be the catalyst for
:18:00. > :18:03.that. Everybody talks about Brexit being a risk, but prices will not
:18:04. > :18:11.change unless supply or demand changes. Neither of those seem to
:18:12. > :18:15.change any time soon. There will be a short-term impact on demand,
:18:16. > :18:19.people's position to be able to buy, that will create a short-term
:18:20. > :18:25.disconnect, which will mean that transaction levels will fall and
:18:26. > :18:30.price growth will soften, it may fall into some of the weaker
:18:31. > :18:33.markets. But beyond that, we have to look at the fundamentals, the supply
:18:34. > :18:38.and demand, what will happen to the cost of borrowing, slightly offset
:18:39. > :18:50.by Access ability to the market. We have heard from David Davis, he
:18:51. > :18:53.is the new Secretary of State for Brexit, a new job in the Cabinet.
:18:54. > :18:58.You can read his thoughts on our page.
:18:59. > :19:03.The Bank of England says it is ready for action to stave
:19:04. > :19:05.off a Brexit recession, so will it slash interest rates
:19:06. > :19:16.We expect a decision at mid-day, full coverage across the BBC.
:19:17. > :19:22.A quick look at how markets are faring.
:19:23. > :19:28.Europe are keeping an eye on Mark Europe are keeping an eye on Mark
:19:29. > :19:32.Carney and his team. All higher by quite a margin at the moment.
:19:33. > :19:34.Now, here's a story that you'll either love or hate.
:19:35. > :19:36.The story of a young British tech entrepreneur who's made it big
:19:37. > :19:38.and now runs his firm in America's Silicon Valley.
:19:39. > :19:42.Not bad for a kid who skipped university.
:19:43. > :19:44.James Proud was raised in south London and started building
:19:45. > :19:56.In his late teens he was spotted by US billionaire investor
:19:57. > :20:00.Peter Thiel and awarded a fellowship as part of an entrepreneur
:20:01. > :20:03.He's now the chief executive of a firm called Hello
:20:04. > :20:04.in Silicon Valley which makes a sleep-tracking
:20:05. > :20:14.When I was nine years old I discovered that
:20:15. > :20:19.you could build websites for yourself, and so if you have
:20:20. > :20:23.a nine-year-old with the internet, he can build his own websites,
:20:24. > :20:28.When I was 12 I figured out I could get paid to do that stuff
:20:29. > :20:30.as well, so I started building websites for other people,
:20:31. > :20:39.My mum thought I was a drug dealer, but I explained that they don't get
:20:40. > :20:48.I kept doing that, then when I was finishing sixth form
:20:49. > :20:54.in the UK I had this online side project at 17 that I launched.
:20:55. > :20:57.I took a gap year between then and university so I could
:20:58. > :21:02.At the end of that year it was a case of, "If I go
:21:03. > :21:06.to university now, I will not be able to spend 18 hours a day doing
:21:07. > :21:16.The first thing I want to do is what I am doing, so I won't go."
:21:17. > :21:19.Peter Thiel put together a programme, the Thiel Fellowship,
:21:20. > :21:24.20 Under 20, which was 20 young people under the age of 20,
:21:25. > :21:30.and he gave them $100,000 not to go to university.
:21:31. > :21:37.I was the first one in the first class.
:21:38. > :21:39.The only one that was not from the US.
:21:40. > :21:42.I was the only one that went out there, "How do
:21:43. > :21:45.They said, "We have not thought about this yet!"
:21:46. > :21:48.I had the fun of, "How do I not get deported?"
:21:49. > :21:51.19, no job, no degree, it is a bit harder.
:21:52. > :21:57."Here's money each month, and go figure it out."
:21:58. > :22:05.Sense is a sleep device which is three things.
:22:06. > :22:09.It helps you to fall asleep, it helps you to improve your sleep,
:22:10. > :22:12.and it helps you to wake up each morning feeling great and not groggy
:22:13. > :22:22.The way it does that is inside it is a sound machine,
:22:23. > :22:24.so we play sounds like white noise, rainfall, meditative sounds
:22:25. > :22:31.It is packed full of not just senses to see how you are sleeping,
:22:32. > :22:35.but the environmental conditions, light, sound, temperature,
:22:36. > :22:40.humidity, air quality, the things that affect sleep.
:22:41. > :22:42.You don't have to wear anything, there is no plugging things in,
:22:43. > :22:48.pressing buttons, putting things on your head.
:22:49. > :22:52.It can collect all of this information and say,
:22:53. > :22:54.here are your patterns, here is how you can improve it,
:22:55. > :22:57.here are those things that are not great, maybe
:22:58. > :23:00.lower the temperature, make it darker.
:23:01. > :23:03.The third piece is it is the best alarm clock,
:23:04. > :23:06.because we know your sleep cycle, we know when you are
:23:07. > :23:13.You will say, "I want to be up at 9am," but maybe at 8:52am
:23:14. > :23:18.You know when your alarm goes off and you can get out of bed
:23:19. > :23:40.That is James proud there. Rachel was talking! I told you we
:23:41. > :23:46.had technical issues, that one you noticed! Do you need a machine to
:23:47. > :23:49.help you get to sleep? It is difficult to stay awake during the
:23:50. > :23:55.evening, never mind at night! Getting up is my problem. But let's
:23:56. > :24:03.talk about Brexit, we ask for viewers' responses. An issue we have
:24:04. > :24:06.One person says, so much negativity, One person says, so much negativity,
:24:07. > :24:15.talk about the positives that it can have, it is our fault, the BBC seems
:24:16. > :24:19.to look for the bad. Ray says, we are cowering in anticipation. Abby
:24:20. > :24:27.says, fed up of the bad news from the BBC. Keep pushing doom and
:24:28. > :24:34.gloom. Others point out, it is important to keep a close eye on it.
:24:35. > :24:36.James says, in the run-up to the referendum, there were problems
:24:37. > :24:42.about getting the real story. Keep your comments coming in.
:24:43. > :24:45.It is all over the papers. In the Independent, everything could still
:24:46. > :24:51.be OK, says a small group of economists. We had one on our
:24:52. > :24:56.programme, talking about the economy. There is a danger we
:24:57. > :25:03.talk ourselves into a recession. If talk ourselves into a recession. If
:25:04. > :25:09.you look at what we do know so far, markets are performing as they
:25:10. > :25:12.should, equity markets have stabilised, it makes UK assets on
:25:13. > :25:18.competitive. We just have to wait competitive. We just have to wait
:25:19. > :25:18.and see. It is too early to be either wildly optimistic or hugely
:25:19. > :25:27.negative. For the moment, all of the negative. For the moment, all of the
:25:28. > :25:33.claims about unemployment soaring... Yes, credits these say it is May
:25:34. > :25:42.Day, half a million jobs could go in the UK. Say we had a movement on
:25:43. > :25:48.compare it to Continental Europe, compare it to Continental Europe,
:25:49. > :25:51.fantastic youth unemployment in fantastic youth unemployment in
:25:52. > :25:56.we have to look at it in those we have to look at it in those
:25:57. > :25:59.terms. Don't get overly negative or positive, wait for the market. The
:26:00. > :26:05.voice of reason! But is it from us. Stay June for all
:26:06. > :26:09.of the news on the potential interest rate cut.
:26:10. > :26:22.Hello. I suspect that Thursday is the pick of the day is across the
:26:23. > :26:23.British Isles, a lot of dry weather, there will be sunshine, and it