21/07/2016

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:00:00. > :00:07.This is Business Live from BBC News with Ben Thompson

:00:08. > :00:11.The European Central Bank is set to give its first policy decision

:00:12. > :00:13.after Britain took the decision to leave the European Union.

:00:14. > :00:16.Markets are awaiting any news to changes to the ECB's

:00:17. > :00:18.quantitative easing progamme- as reports suggest Japan is about to

:00:19. > :00:57.The US Department of Justice alleges that

:00:58. > :00:59.$1 billion has been "misappropriated" from the Malaysian

:01:00. > :01:01.government fund founded by the country's Prime Minister.

:01:02. > :01:03.The DOJ claims that stolen money has been used to help fund

:01:04. > :01:09.the Hollywood blockbuster The Wolf of Wall Street.

:01:10. > :01:18.We are not making that up and that is what the markets are doing.

:01:19. > :01:20.Also in the programme - riding the currency markets.

:01:21. > :01:23.We'll get the Inside Track on how businesses cope with big swings

:01:24. > :01:33.And the world officially has gone mad as Pokemon fever sweeps the

:01:34. > :01:36.globe. A software programmer has combined an app with dating dating.

:01:37. > :01:43.We want to know which apps you would like to see crated.

:01:44. > :01:55.-- created. There are unnamed presenters at the

:01:56. > :01:58.BBC who have caught Pokemon in this studio. We say no more.

:01:59. > :02:02.We start today in Europe - because the European Central Bank

:02:03. > :02:04.lays out its latest policy action later -

:02:05. > :02:07.the first meeting since the UK voted to leave the EU.

:02:08. > :02:09.So what's weighing on the mind of the ECB?

:02:10. > :02:12.Well, as well as Brexit, the collapse in oil prices saw

:02:13. > :02:14.the Eurozone slip into deflation in April and May.The ECB's job

:02:15. > :02:17.is to maintain price stability - and that means preventing both

:02:18. > :02:19.inflation and deflation - and stopping either gaining

:02:20. > :02:26.In recent weeks, political uncertainty - especially surrounding

:02:27. > :02:29.Brexit - has put a squeeze on bank lending as businesses

:02:30. > :02:31.and individuals hold off from taking decisions on investment

:02:32. > :02:39.In March, the ECB launched a landmark stimulus package

:02:40. > :02:45.It has an aggressive bond-buying scheme, but it can only buy certain

:02:46. > :02:48.types of bonds and now some economists suggest those constraints

:02:49. > :02:56.are tying the hands of the central bank.

:02:57. > :03:02.With me now is Kallum Pickering, senior economist at Berenberg Bank.

:03:03. > :03:07.What Ben was saying is giving us an idea of the problems injected into

:03:08. > :03:14.the eurozone economy, as a result of that what state is that economy in

:03:15. > :03:19.at the moment? Eurozone economy has been growing at modest rates.

:03:20. > :03:23.Nothing vigorous since 2012 but it has been growing at a stable base.

:03:24. > :03:27.Balance sheets are improving and there are employment gains we have

:03:28. > :03:31.enjoyed. You say generally growing but within that average growth,

:03:32. > :03:35.there are some real basket case, Greece and Italy which have not

:03:36. > :03:40.grown at all. That is right. France and Italy have real issues with

:03:41. > :03:43.their labour market, they need reform to help increase employment

:03:44. > :03:47.but Germany has been grow, unemployment is low. Spain and

:03:48. > :03:51.Ireland the two basket cases during the crisis year have been having the

:03:52. > :03:56.strongest rates of growth. OK, so given that situation, what does the

:03:57. > :04:00.ECB do now? What it needs to do is off set the confidence shock that

:04:01. > :04:04.has happened since Brexit. It needs to preserve the positive trends.

:04:05. > :04:08.Just pick you up on that, the confidence shock from Brexit, how

:04:09. > :04:15.big has that been in Europe itself? The eurozone? We only have a few

:04:16. > :04:19.breadcrumbs of data so far. The index for the eurozone fell earlier

:04:20. > :04:23.this week to the lowest level since 2012, but these sentiments can often

:04:24. > :04:26.overreact to what is happening in the real economy, so we will

:04:27. > :04:32.probably see a dent to growth in the second half of the year but I am not

:04:33. > :04:35.sure, given the existing aggressive stimulus the ECB will ratchet up its

:04:36. > :04:41.programme. Go back to what it can do. You think it hasn't got enough

:04:42. > :04:46.data do do anything but it can say things that will make a difference

:04:47. > :04:49.It, it can. They Couch their phrases when they say OK this is the way we

:04:50. > :04:52.see the economy, there are some risks to inflation, remember all

:04:53. > :05:00.central banks need to immediate a target. The ECB's is 2%. If they say

:05:01. > :05:05.we won't meet our target, that send a signal to financial markets they

:05:06. > :05:09.could increase or extend its monastery stimulus. And Mario Draghi

:05:10. > :05:13.will say something about European Governments doing more to help out

:05:14. > :05:17.the heavy lifting that the central bank has been doing all these years?

:05:18. > :05:20.He is right to do so central banks cannot increase the size of the

:05:21. > :05:26.engine in an economy. They can only provide the fuel, so it is the

:05:27. > :05:29.reforms in the labour markets fiscal policy in the surplus countries,

:05:30. > :05:32.that will raise the rate of growth in the eurozone.

:05:33. > :05:35.Lufthansa has cut its full-year profit target after a big fall

:05:36. > :05:38.Germany's biggest airline blamed "terrorist attacks in Europe"

:05:39. > :05:40.and "greater political and economic uncertainty".

:05:41. > :05:42.British Airways owner IAG and Easyjet have also issued profits

:05:43. > :05:53.Shares in online retailer eBay jumped 6.5% in after hours trading

:05:54. > :05:54.after the company reported better-than-expected

:05:55. > :06:03.They were up 5.7% compared to the year before.

:06:04. > :06:06.The online retailer also raised sales forecasts for the year ahead

:06:07. > :06:13.Elon Musk has unveiled his "master plan" for the future of Tesla.

:06:14. > :06:16.He said the electric car maker is working on several new vehicles,

:06:17. > :06:18.including heavy trucks and buses that could be launched

:06:19. > :06:22.Musk also used the speech to defend the company's autopilot system,

:06:23. > :06:24.after an autonomous car crashed earlier this year,

:06:25. > :06:41.The online retailer also raised sales forecasts for the year ahead

:06:42. > :06:50.Jet jet's cost which have gone up as a result of the falling pound, the

:06:51. > :06:56.investigation into sports direct but there is one other story I

:06:57. > :07:03.desperately wanted to get hold of. Commercial property. I can't find.

:07:04. > :07:07.Standard Chartered. I have got it. They are all linked, this is the

:07:08. > :07:13.first time we have heard about this, linked to this probe going into one

:07:14. > :07:19.MDB, this fund in Malaysia, which has been accused by the US yautsties

:07:20. > :07:23.of money-laundering, or at least Simoning off money to pay for

:07:24. > :07:28.movies. It is interesting and we will

:07:29. > :07:41.Let's head to Asia now where the US Justice Department has launched

:07:42. > :07:43.a billion dollar lawsuit as part of its investigation

:07:44. > :07:47.The fund was set up and overseen by the country's Prime Minister.

:07:48. > :07:49.But, the US claims money from the fund was misused -

:07:50. > :07:51.even though the Prime Minister is not directly

:07:52. > :07:56.Our Asia business correspondent Karishma Vaswani has the details -

:07:57. > :09:19.Yes, MDB. The to help develop Malaysia 's infrastructure. The

:09:20. > :09:21.The heat is sticking round in the south-east,

:09:22. > :09:22.but elsewhere it is a

:09:23. > :09:50.We could have that insight into their thoughts life after Brexit but

:09:51. > :09:55.it does mean investors remain cautious. It was slightly better

:09:56. > :09:58.yesterday, thanks to good corporate results, so that is the state of

:09:59. > :10:02.play so far in Europe, that is how markets are looking, we will talk

:10:03. > :10:23.about that more in a moment. Let us head to New York.

:10:24. > :10:30.The coffee giant is focussed on more lunch offers, to get more people

:10:31. > :10:34.through its doors, and low borrowing costs have made it cheaper to buy a

:10:35. > :10:39.car, but how much has that helped General Motors? We should find out

:10:40. > :10:43.when it reports second quarter earnings, strong demand for trucks

:10:44. > :10:51.and SUVs are expected to drive sales at home. With other companies also

:10:52. > :10:54.scheduled to turn in their accounts investors hope the message is bun

:10:55. > :10:57.that suggests the US consumer is in good shape.

:10:58. > :11:00.That was Michelle in New York. Joining us is Bronwyn Curtis,

:11:01. > :11:02.an independent economist and governor at the London School

:11:03. > :11:10.of Economics. What are the markets telling us

:11:11. > :11:14.about post Brexit Britain? They are not really telling us anything at

:11:15. > :11:18.all. The surprising thing we have had Turkey, we have had all sorts

:11:19. > :11:22.of, every time get a hit you expect the markets to go down and it is not

:11:23. > :11:27.happening, in fact, they are going up, and I think they are just

:11:28. > :11:34.waiting, they have had so many hits they have become blase. You said

:11:35. > :11:42.they are going up. Looking at the UK market it readjusted. The pound went

:11:43. > :11:45.down, shares went up, we readjusted. Certainly in the UK, that is true,

:11:46. > :11:51.they just readjusted prices because if you look at the smaller companies

:11:52. > :11:54.in the UK, they haven't really gone up, but elsewhere, you know, they

:11:55. > :12:00.have done pretty well. One indication we might get tomorrow is

:12:01. > :12:05.the market, the flash data, we get it for the UK and the eurozone, that

:12:06. > :12:08.will give us an early indication of what is happening in the real

:12:09. > :12:12.economy. That is the important thing isn't it. In the real world what is

:12:13. > :12:16.happening, away from the market, away from the numbers. Numbers. This

:12:17. > :12:22.will be the first time we have had any real world data. This is an

:12:23. > :12:26.early flash PMI for the UK. It has been especially early, that will

:12:27. > :12:30.give us a good indication of well, the first indication of really what

:12:31. > :12:34.is happening to companies and PMIs are about the expectations of

:12:35. > :12:37.purchasing managers in companies, and we expect that you know, they

:12:38. > :12:40.will have put their investment on hold, they will put their hiring on

:12:41. > :12:45.hold and so on, we don't think it will be a good number.

:12:46. > :12:48.Nice to see you. Briton win will be back to talk us through some of the

:12:49. > :12:52.Selling sterling or ditching dollars?

:12:53. > :12:54.We get the inside track of life on the currency markets.

:12:55. > :12:57.As the Uk's vote to leave the European Union sent shockwaves

:12:58. > :12:59.through the foreign exchange markets, we'll assess what it

:13:00. > :13:02.means in the long term - and why a fall in the value

:13:03. > :13:05.of the pound is good news - and bad news - for investors.

:13:06. > :13:07.Stay with us, you're watching Business

:13:08. > :13:15.Now - one of the first casualties of the UK's vote to leave the EU

:13:16. > :13:18.A number of funds suspended operations, as investors

:13:19. > :13:21.Well, a new report by surveyors across the UK shows investment

:13:22. > :13:24.demand is falling and the market could be taking

:13:25. > :13:29.But does that stack up with evidence on the ground?

:13:30. > :13:32.Just this week Wells Fargo struck a ?300m deal to buy new European

:13:33. > :13:34.headquarters in London, while China's largest property

:13:35. > :13:37.developer has been given the go ahead for a hugely ambitious project

:13:38. > :13:50.Theo Leggett is in our Business Newsroom.

:13:51. > :13:57.is the question, what is going on? Who do believe the the surveyors on

:13:58. > :14:01.the data on the ground? You have to drish between individual property

:14:02. > :14:06.deals and generalised sentiment. What we have seen with the Wells

:14:07. > :14:10.Fargo deal is a single company deciding it has extensive business

:14:11. > :14:16.interests in the UK and it is in its own interests to set up its European

:14:17. > :14:21.headquarters here. Likewise with the investment by a Chinese firm, they

:14:22. > :14:23.are coming in to invest in real estate in the London, market because

:14:24. > :14:27.they think it's a good deal for them. With the pound at its current

:14:28. > :14:33.level they may think they are getting good value. The broader

:14:34. > :14:38.picture is that sentiment across the country is fall, this is a survey

:14:39. > :14:42.that is carried out according to interviews with several hundred

:14:43. > :14:45.chartered surveyia yours and they are reporting that interest in

:14:46. > :14:48.future investment in the London property market is declining. Also

:14:49. > :14:53.across the rest of the country, it is falling but the biggest effects

:14:54. > :14:56.are in London. I do think you have to distinguish between those

:14:57. > :15:00.individual deals, and the situation across the country, where surveyors

:15:01. > :15:03.are being asked not only what is happening but their own opinions,

:15:04. > :15:08.what people are saying to them, and that shows that sentiment as a whole

:15:09. > :15:11.is falling, that expectations are, that in London, the property prices

:15:12. > :15:14.are going to fall, in the rest of the country it depends which market

:15:15. > :15:17.you are looking at, but the sentiment is also going downwards

:15:18. > :15:21.and rents are expected to fall as well. A couple of seconds but what

:15:22. > :15:25.has happened to the property funds? People were investing in them,

:15:26. > :15:27.difficult to get their money out because property is Ilicic wed. Are

:15:28. > :15:36.they still in trouble? People with money in those funds

:15:37. > :15:40.can't get money out quickly because if you want to sell money it takes

:15:41. > :15:43.time, particularly in the current market, it will take longer than

:15:44. > :15:47.usual. Thanks very much indeed for that.

:15:48. > :15:58.Bank is set to give its first policy decision after Britain took

:15:59. > :16:00.the decision to leave the European Union.

:16:01. > :16:06.Markets are awaiting any news to changes to the ECB's

:16:07. > :16:09.quantitative easing progamme - as reports suggest Japan is about to

:16:10. > :16:13.That is of course designed to kick-start ailing economies.

:16:14. > :16:17.A quick look at how markets are faring...

:16:18. > :16:28.There you go. The FTSE is one third of 1% down. It is not a big moving

:16:29. > :16:33.day. The pound against the dollar, remember, the strongest was 1.30

:16:34. > :16:40.three. The weakest was 1.28 after breaks it. -- after Brexit.

:16:41. > :16:43.Now - for most of us - when we think of foreign exchange,

:16:44. > :16:46.we think about holiday money before a trip overseas.

:16:47. > :16:48.But playing the currency markets is one of the fastest

:16:49. > :16:56.Small movements in the value of the pound or dollar can have huge

:16:57. > :17:00.The UK's decision to leave the European Union sent shockwaves

:17:01. > :17:05.Today, nearly a month after the vote - the pound

:17:06. > :17:09.is still around 10% weaker against the dollar.

:17:10. > :17:13.for British tourists visiting abroad, everything becomes

:17:14. > :17:18.But for foreign investors looking to buy shares

:17:19. > :17:25.or indeed whole companies in Britain, it costs less.

:17:26. > :17:28.It also makes UK-made goods cheaper abroad.

:17:29. > :17:30.Western Union Business Solutions helps companies transfer

:17:31. > :17:32.currency overseas and manage their foreign exchange risk.

:17:33. > :17:47.Did I pronounce that correctly? Well done. Talk us through what happened,

:17:48. > :17:52.it is still about 10% lower, the pound versus the dollar as a result

:17:53. > :17:58.of Brexit. What happened when you woke up? It was a bit chaotic to be

:17:59. > :18:00.honest, it was obviously an expected result and for most organisations,

:18:01. > :18:06.the world turned for them overnight, think about the cost of goods for a

:18:07. > :18:10.typical organisation, that immediately went up close to 10%

:18:11. > :18:16.which has a significant impact for the type of company we serve, a

:18:17. > :18:21.small, medium-size enterprise. If you are exporting the exports become

:18:22. > :18:25.cheaper for buyers and therefore you benefit. Did you get any idea what

:18:26. > :18:29.the net result was for most customers? I think everyone was

:18:30. > :18:33.concerned coming off this, there were some winners and losers from a

:18:34. > :18:36.currency standpoint but the reality is that it brings a fair amount of

:18:37. > :18:41.certainty to businesses within Britain. So that was the prevailing

:18:42. > :18:46.sentiment. Obviously right up front people were concerned about their

:18:47. > :18:50.financial situation. Largely those organisations that were exposed to

:18:51. > :18:58.international costs, they were concerned about that because it has

:18:59. > :19:04.a flow on effect. It is great for exporters. You make it easier for

:19:05. > :19:07.people to movement here around the world and we know that that is a

:19:08. > :19:11.global business and people need to be able to move near round but it

:19:12. > :19:15.strikes me there has always been a lot of middle man, someone creaming

:19:16. > :19:21.off profit at every stage and you have tried to remove some of that?

:19:22. > :19:24.We have. To contextualise it as playing the markets, that is the

:19:25. > :19:28.core of what we are advising businesses not to be doing. Too few

:19:29. > :19:33.businesses really care about this and actively manage it. Corporate

:19:34. > :19:39.stew a great job at the bus majority of businesses, 99%... You are

:19:40. > :19:45.talking about managing exposure? Yes, and the risk. They shouldn't be

:19:46. > :19:49.doing that? They should be doing that. You were talking about playing

:19:50. > :19:53.currencies. They should not be playing currencies, they should be

:19:54. > :19:59.actively managing it. How should they be doing it in this

:20:00. > :20:03.environment? It is important to understand their cost base and make

:20:04. > :20:06.sure they are securing that first, if you understand that then you can

:20:07. > :20:12.build from that and you know what your prices are, how to contract,

:20:13. > :20:15.ensure you are meeting prize points to be competitive. Understanding

:20:16. > :20:21.costs and setting cost rates is important. Very briefly, do they

:20:22. > :20:27.have some certainty now about where the pound is going? It is down, but

:20:28. > :20:31.it's not going anywhere else? They do have a bit of certainty? The

:20:32. > :20:35.certainty is that it will continue to move and that is what businesses

:20:36. > :20:42.should be expecting. They need to proactively manage against

:20:43. > :20:46.volatility. We are helping businesses to do that through

:20:47. > :20:52.platforms and products. Going back to your earlier point, the new

:20:53. > :20:55.platform does help to do that, cut out the middleman and make

:20:56. > :21:00.transactions easier and faster but also help them to manage their cash

:21:01. > :21:03.flow better, especially if they are impacted by foreign currencies. It

:21:04. > :21:08.is good to see you and I wish we could talk more but as always in

:21:09. > :21:09.this programme time is against us. Thank you or explaining all of that.

:21:10. > :21:19.It is nice to meet you both. EasyJet has just reported a fall in

:21:20. > :21:24.profits following a profit warning that was issued at the end of the

:21:25. > :21:28.month. The British carrier was affected by political instability,

:21:29. > :21:34.terror attacks, and now the UK voting to leave the EU. The

:21:35. > :21:39.investment director of AJ Bell says it is still unclear how it will

:21:40. > :21:42.affect easyJet. The long-term issue is the economic slowdown, we don't

:21:43. > :21:46.know if there is yet, but a lot of statistics were showing signs of

:21:47. > :21:54.weakness even before the referendum vote. As the industry added too much

:21:55. > :21:59.capacity? There was a ?25 million hit from oil increases and the pound

:22:00. > :22:05.going down. It is priced in dollars. The long-term impact, the company

:22:06. > :22:08.has expressed concern about consumer sentiment in the UK and Europe

:22:09. > :22:14.because it is not just flying in and out of the UK. It flies all around

:22:15. > :22:18.the continent. We don't know about the long-term impact but the fourth

:22:19. > :22:25.quarter, the most profitable of the year, it is around 65%. They are

:22:26. > :22:28.worried about consumer confidence but business travel was up 9% and

:22:29. > :22:34.they have been working hard on that and it has paid off. Brian is back

:22:35. > :22:44.to take us through the stories. -- Bronwen. Elon Musk does not shy away

:22:45. > :22:49.from headlines, he says they will create electric cars, trucks, buses

:22:50. > :22:53.and this sort of thing. We expected this but it's a big ask because an

:22:54. > :23:02.electric bus takes a lot of power. Yes. He has put this out on the

:23:03. > :23:11.company blog. He bought or merged a solar panel installation company, so

:23:12. > :23:14.maybe he is thinking of using solar panels on the tops of buses but I

:23:15. > :23:19.don't know how many you can get on the top of a bus. It would be a very

:23:20. > :23:22.big one. The big thing with all of this is that he's talking about all

:23:23. > :23:27.of this but he hasn't said when the company will be profitable which is

:23:28. > :23:32.quite important to people. You know, it's all about what we can do, but

:23:33. > :23:38.what about the battery technology? That is the big thing. Batteries

:23:39. > :23:42.will change and everything. If we get that right everything would be

:23:43. > :23:47.sold? That is the big thing if you can do that but no one has so far.

:23:48. > :23:51.Lots of talk and lots of things in production but he can do all of this

:23:52. > :23:56.if he gets the battery is right. He is a great dreamer with big

:23:57. > :24:03.ambitions. Speeding people across the deserts of America. Getting them

:24:04. > :24:07.from A to B in a couple of seconds. Does he deliver? He has delivered an

:24:08. > :24:13.electric car and one that had an accident of course as we know. But I

:24:14. > :24:17.think he has pushed out the barriers, other people follow him,

:24:18. > :24:22.and electric cars, it's not gas powered cars or other power, other

:24:23. > :24:31.cheap means of energy, it is electric cars we are looking at.

:24:32. > :24:37.Let's talk about Pokemon Go. It has now launched a dating service! We

:24:38. > :24:42.asked viewers about which app they would like that does not currently

:24:43. > :24:47.exist. One person said he would like one to find peace. A lovely thought

:24:48. > :24:54.on a Thursday morning. Any morning! David in Florida wants to see an app

:24:55. > :24:58.called message in a bottle, delivering a message to a random

:24:59. > :25:04.person years later! Carol would like to see an app which debunks lies

:25:05. > :25:09.from politicians. Lie detector, I like that. Let's talk about Pokemon

:25:10. > :25:16.Go is a dating service. It connects, dare I say, like-minded nerds. You

:25:17. > :25:22.fill out a little questionnaire. I think you have to be on Pokemon Go

:25:23. > :25:27.first. That counts me out! Exactly right! Then you fill in a

:25:28. > :25:31.questionnaire, they tried to put people together and they sent

:25:32. > :25:44.e-mails off to each of them, and the idea is that apparently it is called

:25:45. > :25:49.Project Six Up. -- Fix Up. The idea is that it is more fun to play with

:25:50. > :25:53.a friend. Thank you for your company today. Same time, same place

:25:54. > :25:56.tomorrow. Goodbye, we will see you later.