:00:00. > :00:00.One of the world's leading economists tell us - the BBC -
:00:00. > :00:00.the biggest threat to the global economy.
:00:00. > :00:15.Live from London, that's our top story on Monday, 26th September.
:00:16. > :00:21.Speaking to the BBC, the former International Monetary Fund Chief
:00:22. > :00:24.economist Ken Rogoff says that a hard landing for the Chinese
:00:25. > :00:28.Also in the programme...blast off for India!
:00:29. > :00:33.The world's fastest growing major economy puts eight satellites
:00:34. > :00:45.This is what the markets have been doing. Last week was not that bad.
:00:46. > :00:47.And we'll be getting the inside track on electronic
:00:48. > :00:50.voting - it's being done in a handful of countries -
:00:51. > :00:54.We'll be speaking to an industry leader later in the programme.
:00:55. > :00:56.And today, we're also looking at the Easyjet story
:00:57. > :00:59.about the world's youngest plane captain.
:01:00. > :01:02.She's just 26, flying with the world's youngest
:01:03. > :01:07.commercial airline pilot. He's 19 years old.
:01:08. > :01:16.does the age of your pilot matter to you?
:01:17. > :01:24.Get in touch using the hashtag #BBCBizLive.
:01:25. > :01:25.Welcome to the programme.
:01:26. > :01:28.The former chief economist of the International Monetary Fund
:01:29. > :01:31.has said that a slowdown in China is the greatest threat
:01:32. > :01:39.Ken Rogoff said that a calamitous "hard landing" for one of the main
:01:40. > :01:43.been slowing down faster than official figures suggest.
:01:44. > :01:46.So what is happening with China's economy?
:01:47. > :01:49.China's borrowings hit $25.6 trillion at the end of 2015.
:01:50. > :01:57.This figure includes government, corporate and household
:01:58. > :02:01.China's debt is now nearly 250% greater than the value
:02:02. > :02:03.of what it produces every year, or its GDP.
:02:04. > :02:07.This is due to Beijing's repeated use of cheap credit
:02:08. > :02:12.This has unleashed a huge, debt-fuelled spending binge.
:02:13. > :02:16.Ken Rogoff has been speaking to our economics editor, Kamal Ahmed.
:02:17. > :02:32.There is no question that China has been the engine of global growth.
:02:33. > :02:42.The US is picking up, but China is picking up and -- slowing down much
:02:43. > :02:46.more than official figures show. If you want to look at a part of the
:02:47. > :02:47.world that has a debt problem, look at China. They have been a credit
:02:48. > :02:55.fuelled growth. These things don't go on forever.
:02:56. > :03:00.Everyone says China is different, the state owns everything and they
:03:01. > :03:05.can control it - only to a point. I definitely worried about a hard
:03:06. > :03:08.landing for China. We are having a sharp already, and I worry about
:03:09. > :03:13.China becoming more of a problem. We have taken it for granted that
:03:14. > :03:18.whatever Europe and Japan are doing, at least China is moving along.
:03:19. > :03:24.There wasn't really a substitute for China. India may come a someday.
:03:25. > :03:29.They are doing better, but it has fallen behind sofa in size that it
:03:30. > :03:32.would not compensate. That is the area of the world I worry about
:03:33. > :03:36.most. What would mitigate the risk of a Chinese hard landing? What
:03:37. > :03:42.should China and the rest of the global economy do? That is a tough
:03:43. > :03:47.question. Ideally, you would like to regenerate growth and be more on
:03:48. > :03:50.your feet when this happens so that when China starts slowing down,
:03:51. > :03:55.Europe is doing better. The US is already doing better, some emerging
:03:56. > :04:01.markets are going better. You would like the rest of the world not to be
:04:02. > :04:04.dependent on China so much. But the IMF has marked down its forecasts
:04:05. > :04:12.for global growth nine years in a row. The rumour is that they are
:04:13. > :04:16.about to do it again. In the early stage, it was the advanced
:04:17. > :04:21.countries, but for some time now, it has been China. There are limits to
:04:22. > :04:25.what you can do when a country that big is slowing down.
:04:26. > :04:27.Richard Hunter is Head of Research at Wilson King
:04:28. > :04:41.Does he have a point? We have had guests on the show and other
:04:42. > :04:47.programmes where I have heard them go, Beijing says growth is
:04:48. > :04:51.officially around 7%, but realistically, on the ground, it is
:04:52. > :04:57.probably 4%. What is your take on that? That is possibly true. Some of
:04:58. > :05:02.the UK blue chips doing business out there would save 4% would be more
:05:03. > :05:06.realistic. That said, given the exponential growth China has been
:05:07. > :05:11.having, that is a number that a lot of countries would wish for. What
:05:12. > :05:15.about the banking system? Everyone compares this with what happened in
:05:16. > :05:20.2008, but the banking system in China is not tied into the western
:05:21. > :05:29.banking system. It is different. It has without question had a number of
:05:30. > :05:31.stimuli. China is going through a transformation from rural to urban.
:05:32. > :05:35.This will take the next decade and as time goes on, we will realise
:05:36. > :05:39.more and more that the Chinese do not look at their economy as we do
:05:40. > :05:44.in the US and UK on a quarterly basis. They have decade views mind.
:05:45. > :05:50.Any short-term bonds, there will be less concerned about. They might be
:05:51. > :05:55.less concerned about short-term bumps in the road, but how much of
:05:56. > :05:59.an impact does China, as the world's second largest economy, if it hits
:06:00. > :06:11.those bumps, do we elsewhere feel that? Of course. There are ripples
:06:12. > :06:16.in other economies. Generally speaking, when we have such anaemic
:06:17. > :06:20.growth elsewhere, it is the likes of China that we look to to keep the
:06:21. > :06:24.growth going. Richard, you are going to come back and talk through the
:06:25. > :06:26.papers, like these young pilots flying is around.
:06:27. > :06:29.The former head of the International Monetary Fund, Rodrigo Rato,
:06:30. > :06:31.is to go on trial on charges of corruption.
:06:32. > :06:33.The allegations date from when Mr Rato was chairman
:06:34. > :06:35.of the one of Spain's biggest banks, Bankia.
:06:36. > :06:38.It's claimed Mr Rato, and 65 other executives,
:06:39. > :06:43.spent $13.5m on personal expenses while working at Bankia.
:06:44. > :06:50.Mr Rato had also previously served as Spain's economy minister.
:06:51. > :06:53.A Singapore based firm has acquired a 49% stake in Rolling Stone,
:06:54. > :06:55.the magazine widely known as the voice of music
:06:56. > :07:01.Bandlab Technologies aims to expand Rolling Stone's business
:07:02. > :07:07.The Singapore firm has a portfolio of companies, including retail
:07:08. > :07:09.operations in the music industry which it hopes will contribute
:07:10. > :07:11.to the continued growth of the magazine
:07:12. > :07:14.The messaging app Snapchat has announced its first gadget -
:07:15. > :07:20.For a hip young company, it's chosen a rather
:07:21. > :07:28.The glasses can record up to 30 seconds of video at a time and go
:07:29. > :07:33.As part of the announcement, Snapchat is renaming itself
:07:34. > :07:36.Snap Inc, underlining the company's ambition to go beyond
:07:37. > :07:56.wine list used to be an old-fashioned word as well but that
:07:57. > :08:05.is not now. Let's look at the BBC page here. Monarch Airlines is one
:08:06. > :08:10.of the UK-based airline 's. With a lot of rumours that it is going
:08:11. > :08:15.under. We don't know where they started, but this engine talk about
:08:16. > :08:19.the Monarch engineers, who works tipped off yesterday afternoon, so
:08:20. > :08:23.they raced into work to pick up their tools. There are reports that
:08:24. > :08:30.some monarch claims sitting on the ground are being guarded. Looking at
:08:31. > :08:33.social media, a lot of tweets are coming from pilots saying that the
:08:34. > :08:38.planes are taking off, and they are saying to stop the rumours. Talking
:08:39. > :08:46.of flying, would you hop in a plane with a 19-year-old pilot? As young
:08:47. > :08:52.as you! Jamie! I can fly a simulator.
:08:53. > :08:55.Because India has India launched eight satellites into
:08:56. > :09:05.In recent months, the country has been launching an increasing number
:09:06. > :09:08.of foreign satellites, earning $120m in the process.
:09:09. > :09:20.I guess they have to show that they are earning money, because there was
:09:21. > :09:25.probably some controversy about a country where a large chunk of its
:09:26. > :09:32.population are still trying to feed themselves daily. And they have this
:09:33. > :09:35.space programme? That's right. It is a country that has often faced
:09:36. > :09:41.criticism for funding a space programme when we have so many other
:09:42. > :09:46.problems to deal with. Increasingly, though, India's space agency, when
:09:47. > :09:51.they have a launch for an Indian satellite - even today, the purpose
:09:52. > :09:55.of that launch was to put a weather forecasting satellite into space,
:09:56. > :10:00.which was for national purposes. But they always have some extra space in
:10:01. > :10:05.the vehicle, and they are trying to feel that extra space with
:10:06. > :10:11.satellites from foreign companies which pay India's space agency to
:10:12. > :10:16.carry them along. So far, including the five this morning, India has
:10:17. > :10:20.launched 79 foreign satellites. They have already secured deals to launch
:10:21. > :10:24.dozens more foreign satellites, and they are looking at it as a way to
:10:25. > :10:28.make their own operations more cost-effective. If you look
:10:29. > :10:32.globally, the need for space satellite launches has been
:10:33. > :10:36.increasing. There are companies that don't just want to put one or five
:10:37. > :10:42.satellites into space, but a constellation anywhere between 24
:10:43. > :10:46.and a satellites, and they can't always afford a satellite launch of
:10:47. > :10:51.their own. That is why they need to piggyback onto launches by countries
:10:52. > :10:59.like India and other space-faring nations. And there are even private
:11:00. > :11:18.companies like space X. Let's look at what the market is doing.
:11:19. > :11:24.We have seen a lot of optimism after Wednesday's decision from the
:11:25. > :11:28.Federal open markets committee not to raise interest rates. That seems
:11:29. > :11:40.to have been put off till later in the year.
:11:41. > :11:50.I think this will feed through into Europe as well. This was the end of
:11:51. > :11:51.last week. There are a few nerves about the election coming up as
:11:52. > :11:52.well. Samira Hussain
:11:53. > :12:02.has the details about what's ahead On Monday, the first of three US
:12:03. > :12:06.presidential debates between Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton
:12:07. > :12:10.and the Republican nominee Donald Trump. The presidential candidates
:12:11. > :12:16.will be tackling three major themes, one of which will be achieving
:12:17. > :12:19.prosperity. The 67th annual International astronautical
:12:20. > :12:32.conference will be meeting in Mexico. The conference runs until
:12:33. > :12:36.Wednesday, but interestingly, the SpaceX CEO will be laying out his
:12:37. > :12:40.plans to colonise Mars. Finally, the well's largest cruise ship operator
:12:41. > :12:45.Carnival will be reporting earnings. Investors will be paying close
:12:46. > :12:48.attention to any possible changes to Carnival's financial outlook for the
:12:49. > :12:52.rest of the year. It would be a response to global economic events
:12:53. > :13:08.that are really affecting consumer confidence. Let's talk oil.
:13:09. > :13:14.Spencer Welch is director of oil markets at IHS.
:13:15. > :13:20.The gathering at Doha failed to come to an agreement on whether to freeze
:13:21. > :13:26.production or not. I think the Saudis were cheeky to say they would
:13:27. > :13:30.only do it if Iran did it. But I think Iran is now playing catch-up
:13:31. > :13:35.and needs to get its economy up and running. There is no hope in heck
:13:36. > :13:38.that Iran is going to limit its production at the moment? I think
:13:39. > :13:43.you're right. It is unlikely that there will be a deal at the current
:13:44. > :13:47.meeting in Algiers. It is not a formal Opec meeting. It is a meeting
:13:48. > :13:51.of the International energy for. It just happens that most oil producers
:13:52. > :13:58.are there, so they will talk about the situation. But the way Saudi has
:13:59. > :14:06.treated this was to gain market share. Have they succeeded? Yes. In
:14:07. > :14:11.November 2014... Too so why can't they let the press go back up again?
:14:12. > :14:17.They would like the oil price to go up, but it is taking than expected.
:14:18. > :14:19.US production has been in decline. Saudi production has been
:14:20. > :14:27.increasing, so they have been gaining market share, but the price
:14:28. > :14:31.of recovery has not kicked off. If Saudi production was cut back, would
:14:32. > :14:38.that not push prices up? They tried that in the '80s and it took ten
:14:39. > :14:41.years. So if they cut production, they will lose market share. But
:14:42. > :14:46.even if they freeze production, which is what they are talking
:14:47. > :14:51.about, you would be freezing at record levels. They are turning this
:14:52. > :14:54.stuff out like there is no tomorrow. Absolutely. People talking about
:14:55. > :14:56.freezing are already at high production levels. So that will not
:14:57. > :15:00.make much difference to the market. Still to come -
:15:01. > :15:02.is the future electronic? Could you soon be casting your
:15:03. > :15:06.ballot by pressing a button We'll speak to a leader in the field
:15:07. > :15:11.of electronic voting You're with Business
:15:12. > :15:21.Live from BBC News. And now a look at some
:15:22. > :15:25.of the stories from around the UK- and the airline Monarch has been
:15:26. > :15:27.forced to respond to rumours it's Our Business Correspondent Dominic
:15:28. > :15:50.O'Connell has more on this - We were both wondering, engineers
:15:51. > :15:55.were tipped off yesterday. They raced back to work and grabbed their
:15:56. > :16:00.tools. Do we know whether rumours came from? It started last night
:16:01. > :16:05.when reports on social media two aircraft had been brought across
:16:06. > :16:11.from America to bring passengers back from resorts in case Monaarch
:16:12. > :16:15.got into trouble. Next-day, it celebrates its 50th anniversary of
:16:16. > :16:18.taking passengers to the Mediterranean. It released a
:16:19. > :16:25.statement this morning, I don't know if it was in talks with the Civil
:16:26. > :16:31.Aviation Authority last night, but a statement says it is in talks with
:16:32. > :16:37.its current stakeholders about a new financial investment. And that would
:16:38. > :16:43.set aside the CAA demand. Airlines need to have three months cash at
:16:44. > :16:49.hand to continue flying. So at the moment it looks like Monaarch will
:16:50. > :16:56.live to fly another day. It has had a rather chequered past? , Yes it is
:16:57. > :17:02.part of the old package industry, when you flew with the airline you
:17:03. > :17:07.booked accommodation with. It has been struggling, reinvented itself a
:17:08. > :17:16.couple of times, but two years ago in nearly went bust. It was sold to
:17:17. > :17:22.a new private owner and it has been enjoying a new lease of life. But
:17:23. > :17:26.one of its strengths, in the western Mediterranean, terrorist attacks in
:17:27. > :17:35.Turkey and Egypt have really hit it hard. Thanks very much indeed. Just
:17:36. > :17:49.before we move on, we like this story. He thought BHS was dead, but
:17:50. > :17:52.it is being brought back to life online. That's not bad. Online is
:17:53. > :18:03.the future, they say. Our top story - a former
:18:04. > :18:10.International Monetary Fund Chief economist says that a slowdown
:18:11. > :18:13.in China poses the biggest threat A quick look at how
:18:14. > :18:22.markets are faring. We had a good week with gains all
:18:23. > :18:30.round. And now let's get the
:18:31. > :18:33.Inside Track on the future of the democratic process -
:18:34. > :18:37.casting electronic votes. Today we're talking
:18:38. > :18:40.to an industry leader. Smartmatic provides technology
:18:41. > :18:42.and services to six using electronic voting
:18:43. > :18:46.systems: Belgium, Brazil, Estonia, the Philippines,
:18:47. > :18:51.USA and Venezuela. The company has managed elections
:18:52. > :18:53.across five continents and processed But critics are quick to warn
:18:54. > :19:00.that these sorts of systems can be vulnerable to cyber attacks -
:19:01. > :19:02.and we've had very high profile breaches recently, including Yahoo
:19:03. > :19:07.and the Clinton campaign. They are wondering whether the
:19:08. > :19:15.ballots can be vulnerable. Antonio Mugica, chief executive
:19:16. > :19:29.of Smartmatic is here. There are critics, what breaches
:19:30. > :19:41.have you had in that 3.7 billion votes. , Not even once in 12 years.
:19:42. > :19:47.How people tried, but you have to have the security systems? Yes, you
:19:48. > :19:52.have two things, you have to take security seriously, which we do. And
:19:53. > :19:57.then protecting an election system is more simple than many other
:19:58. > :20:04.systems. It only goes live for a few hours and it gives you a big
:20:05. > :20:09.advantage over hackers. What is interesting about this, does it
:20:10. > :20:17.change the habit of voters. Does it change the way they behave?
:20:18. > :20:21.Additional study is needed, but you make the voter more accessible and
:20:22. > :20:27.you make it easier for people with disabilities to vote, for senior
:20:28. > :20:33.people and illiterate people to vote. You bring in more inclusion
:20:34. > :20:38.and that has been extensively demonstrated. We have a big election
:20:39. > :20:44.coming up, and the world is watching very closely. The US presidential
:20:45. > :20:51.elections. The US uses a form of electronic voting. But there are
:20:52. > :20:56.differences, explained that. The US is a peculiar case because they use
:20:57. > :21:01.a lot of technology everywhere, but their technology is quite old. Their
:21:02. > :21:05.systems were developed ten to 15 years ago and they need a
:21:06. > :21:11.significant upgrade, which hasn't happened yet. Are electronic voting
:21:12. > :21:16.systems more popular in new democracies? In old democracies we
:21:17. > :21:21.have a settled way of doing things and it seems to work. New
:21:22. > :21:27.democracies, they think it is modern, secure and we go with this,
:21:28. > :21:33.is that where your market is? The largest user of the electronic
:21:34. > :21:39.voting is the United States. But it is not fully committed and gone the
:21:40. > :21:44.whole way to electronic voting? It is going the whole way, but it is
:21:45. > :21:50.just outdated. We are talking to more than 40 different countries
:21:51. > :21:54.that at some stage, they are making their voting digital. This is a
:21:55. > :21:59.gradual process. What is the biggest obstacle, security? No, the biggest
:22:00. > :22:05.obstacle is political will and a certain lack of momentum by some
:22:06. > :22:13.politicians. Is there a vested interest among politicians? The
:22:14. > :22:17.whole world works differently, but in some emerging markets, you could
:22:18. > :22:23.say those committing fraud don't want the fraud to go away, so they
:22:24. > :22:27.wouldn't want to bring in something that makes the system more
:22:28. > :22:31.transparent. Some older democracies, it is more about being afraid, risk
:22:32. > :22:34.averse. Don't touch anything because we will get in trouble. Great stuff,
:22:35. > :22:37.we appreciate your time. In a moment we'll take a look
:22:38. > :22:40.through the Business Pages but first here's a quick reminder of how
:22:41. > :22:53.to get in touch with us. Our pages where you can stay ahead
:22:54. > :22:59.with the breaking business news. We will keep you up-to-date with the
:23:00. > :23:03.latest details with insight and analysis from the BBC's team of
:23:04. > :23:10.visitors from around the world. We want to hear from you. Get Involved
:23:11. > :23:20.on the BBC live web page. On Twitter, and you can find us on
:23:21. > :23:28.Facebook on BBC business news. Richard Hunter is back to go through
:23:29. > :23:36.the papers. We have lots of a tweet on easyJet and does age matter. Ryan
:23:37. > :23:47.says age doesn't matter but he wants his pilot to be old enough to rent a
:23:48. > :23:52.car in the US. We all go through the same training scheme and when you
:23:53. > :23:57.ask, you are just another pilot. Someone else says Battle of Britain
:23:58. > :24:03.pilots were much younger than that. What do you reckon? If you have been
:24:04. > :24:08.through all those riggers and past, good luck to you. What about
:24:09. > :24:18.experience? You could apply that to anything. You could apply it to the
:24:19. > :24:26.Air France flight, the captain went and had his nap. The vice captain
:24:27. > :24:32.and they basically flew it into the ocean. Does experience count for
:24:33. > :24:39.something? Maybe it does. I am only guessing there is only a certain
:24:40. > :24:45.level that can take you to, but these individuals have done very
:24:46. > :24:52.well. Good luck to them. What is the story want to talk about? At the
:24:53. > :24:58.Brexit one. It is in the Financial Times, people in the city are more
:24:59. > :25:05.worried we will have a hard line over Brexiter not get this kind of
:25:06. > :25:08.things people in the city once. The banks having a passport to do
:25:09. > :25:15.business. This is basically going to get worse as time goes on. At this
:25:16. > :25:19.stage we have no details. It is inevitably causing uncertainty. The
:25:20. > :25:24.passport thing is a big question. There was a report last week, but
:25:25. > :25:28.potentially the passports coming in, exceeded the passports going out,
:25:29. > :25:32.which could change the game. But whatever happens and what comes out
:25:33. > :25:38.of this, the sooner the better, it is part of the UK's GDP, the
:25:39. > :25:44.financial services industry. It has got to be the top of the agenda.
:25:45. > :25:49.Richard Hunter, always a pleasure. Short and sweet, sorry about that.
:25:50. > :25:52.That is it from us today, more businesses throughout the day. We
:25:53. > :25:54.will see you soon. Goodbye.