:00:00. > :00:07.This is Business Live from BBC News with Ben Thompson and Sally Bundock.
:00:08. > :00:10.Oil giant BP takes a beating as the low price of crude
:00:11. > :00:14.But it's a different story for its rival Shell.
:00:15. > :00:17.It posts a surprise rise in earnings.
:00:18. > :00:36.Live from London, that's our top story on Tuesday 1st November.
:00:37. > :00:38.BP's profits virtually halved in the last quarter,
:00:39. > :00:45.We'll get an expert view on the differing fortunes of these
:00:46. > :00:50.Also in the programme, dramatic numbers from
:00:51. > :00:59.Our team in Asia will tell you all you need to know.
:01:00. > :01:01.And, the trading day in Europe has just begun.
:01:02. > :01:06.Shell shares have spiked, BP shares are slipping.
:01:07. > :01:09.Plus, two key central banks in Asia made decisions today.
:01:10. > :01:16.And we'll get the inside track on 50 years in the entertainment business.
:01:17. > :01:18.The nightclub mogul Peter Stringfellow joins us
:01:19. > :01:22.later to talk clubs, cocktails and Brexit.
:01:23. > :01:28.But with the closure of several iconic nightclubs, we want to know,
:01:29. > :01:30.do nightclubs have a future, amid rising costs, falling visitor
:01:31. > :01:57.Oil doesn't just help our engines run, it fuels the world economy too.
:01:58. > :02:02.And in the last couple of hours global oil giants BP and Shell have
:02:03. > :02:05.given us the latest snapshot on how things are going.
:02:06. > :02:08.Their latest results come amid the continued slump
:02:09. > :02:19.BP posted profits of $933 million in the third quarter of this year,
:02:20. > :02:23.but that's down 48% on the same period a year ago.
:02:24. > :02:27.But there was better news at its rival Shell,
:02:28. > :02:32.which beat expectations to make $2.8 billion in the same period.
:02:33. > :02:42.In January, it dropped to its lowest level in over a decade,
:02:43. > :02:52.It's currently hovering around $50 a barrel,
:02:53. > :02:57.weighed down by persistent oversupply.
:02:58. > :03:01.In September the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries,
:03:02. > :03:04.or Opec, agreed to do something about this.
:03:05. > :03:07.At a meeting in Algeria they announced a modest limit
:03:08. > :03:12.on oil-output levels in order to prop up prices.
:03:13. > :03:17.This is the first cut in production since 2008,
:03:18. > :03:23.but the details of how the cuts will work are yet to be finalised,
:03:24. > :03:26.and any further agreement has yet to be reached, following a meeting
:03:27. > :03:33.of both Opec and non-Opec members over the weekend.
:03:34. > :03:35.Alex Holburn is a director at the merchant bank Hannam
:03:36. > :03:52.What is so interesting is the diverging fortunes, BP reporting a
:03:53. > :03:58.nearly halving in earnings, but a 20% rise at Shell. Both companies
:03:59. > :04:04.have been in different positions over the past couple of years. VP
:04:05. > :04:08.has had a number of legacy issues and has been shrinking, not least
:04:09. > :04:15.the oil spill issues in the Gulf of Mexico. Meanwhile, Shell has
:04:16. > :04:20.capitalised on the downturn in markets and purchased BG earlier
:04:21. > :04:25.this year, and is starting to see that reap rewards. When we are
:04:26. > :04:29.looking at the low oil price, we have seen all of the big firms
:04:30. > :04:34.having to change their business fundamentally. Shrinking their
:04:35. > :04:39.business, reducing profiling. Is that the story now for the future,
:04:40. > :04:44.the only way they can win any market or profitability back, by reducing
:04:45. > :04:49.what they do? Absolutely. There has been a deemphasis in the parts of
:04:50. > :04:55.the business but are not profitable, and the refining marketing has
:04:56. > :05:01.bailed out some of the integrated in the past couple of quarters. The oil
:05:02. > :05:06.price bottomed in January, West Texas intermediate did in February,
:05:07. > :05:11.and since then we have seen a substantial uptake, and the upstream
:05:12. > :05:17.divisions are starting to see the benefits. The clear focus amongst
:05:18. > :05:21.all oil and gas companies is on being able to continue to pay their
:05:22. > :05:25.dividends going forward. They are substantial contributors to
:05:26. > :05:30.pensions. The emphasis is on cash flow, trying to maximise that, and
:05:31. > :05:32.do every thing they can on the other side to reduce costs, a combination
:05:33. > :05:37.of reducing capital expenditure, some companies have introduced
:05:38. > :05:41.prescription dividends, offering shares instead of cash, but an
:05:42. > :05:50.emphasis to maintain the dividend yield, which is around 6%. When we
:05:51. > :05:55.talk about Opec, basically cannot come to an agreement anymore. It is
:05:56. > :06:01.to be what they said went. Now they cannot seem to get their act
:06:02. > :06:04.together. It looked as though we might see some kind of agreement at
:06:05. > :06:09.the end of September in Algiers. We are now awaiting confirmation of how
:06:10. > :06:13.they are going to potentially achieve that 32.5 to 33 million
:06:14. > :06:20.barrel a day production level. The meeting will take place in Vienna on
:06:21. > :06:24.the 30th of November. There are a number of nations which require
:06:25. > :06:26.volumes in addition to the prevailing oil price in order to
:06:27. > :06:33.maintain and meet their budgets domestically. A reluctance from the
:06:34. > :06:40.likes of Iraq, Nigeria, Iran to be a part of those cuts.
:06:41. > :06:47.Activity in China's manufacturing sector has expanded at a faster pace
:06:48. > :06:53.than expected in October, adding to views that the world's
:06:54. > :06:55.second-largest economy is stabilising thanks
:06:56. > :07:03.The official Purchasing Managers' Index stood at 51.2 in October,
:07:04. > :07:08.compared with the previous month's 50.4, and above the 50-point
:07:09. > :07:11.mark that separates growth from contraction.
:07:12. > :07:14.It's a week for central-bank meetings, and the latest
:07:15. > :07:17.to announce its decision is the Bank of Japan.
:07:18. > :07:20.No surprises this time, it's kept its existing level
:07:21. > :07:22.of asset purchasing and interest rates, but it's reduced
:07:23. > :07:27.its inflation forecast for next year to 1.5%.
:07:28. > :07:31.In September, the Japanese central bank pledged to hit its 2% target
:07:32. > :07:35.at the "earliest possible time", though inflation still remains
:07:36. > :07:52.Lots of stories on our page, including an update on sterling. It
:07:53. > :07:56.is following the news that we got late yesterday from the Bank of
:07:57. > :08:01.England boss, saying he will stay in position until June 2019. Sterling
:08:02. > :08:07.is up now slightly against the dollar. And against the euro. That
:08:08. > :08:11.gives a sense of the markets breathing a sigh of relief. The
:08:12. > :08:17.announcement came at 6pm London time yesterday.
:08:18. > :08:21.We will talk more about that yesterday -- later, especially to do
:08:22. > :08:23.with timing and the UK leaving the EU.
:08:24. > :08:28.Sony's profits have taken a dive in the second quarter.
:08:29. > :08:44.Dramatic numbers. Explain this for us. We have seen tough times. Really
:08:45. > :08:49.bad numbers coming in from Sony. This is largely due to the soaring
:08:50. > :08:52.value of the Japanese currency. Over the last few years Japanese
:08:53. > :08:57.companies have benefited from a weak yen, it has made that products
:08:58. > :09:02.cheaper overseas, but since the uncertainty over Brexit, nobody
:09:03. > :09:07.expected it, investors have rushed to pick up the game, because it is
:09:08. > :09:11.seen as a safe bet. That has pushed the value higher, even from earlier
:09:12. > :09:17.in the year, when we saw the negative interest rate policy pushed
:09:18. > :09:20.in, people rushed to the yen and pushed it higher, which means that
:09:21. > :09:25.now it is more expensive than ever before to purchase the firm's
:09:26. > :09:31.products overseas, and that is why you are seeing such bad numbers
:09:32. > :09:37.coming out of Sony. The news coming after the trading day finished in
:09:38. > :09:40.Japan. Japan up slightly. Shanghai and Hong Kong given a massive boost
:09:41. > :09:46.in the manufacturing data coming out of China. No change from the bank of
:09:47. > :09:55.Japan to do with its policy. No change from Australia either. They
:09:56. > :10:02.also have their meeting. BP and Shell dominating in Europe. We saw a
:10:03. > :10:08.chart with oil share prices, because not updated, and nor are these! It
:10:09. > :10:17.is not possible they are all on zero! Our data is not working. But
:10:18. > :10:21.BP shares are down around 1% of the back of their earnings, but Shell
:10:22. > :10:23.opening up nearly 4% higher. That gives you a sense of how markets are
:10:24. > :10:25.digesting the news. And Michelle has the details about
:10:26. > :10:36.what's ahead on Wall Street today. Third-quarter earnings season rolls
:10:37. > :10:41.on. On Tuesday the biggest name in the spotlight is the pharmaceutical
:10:42. > :10:48.giant Pfizer. The largest drugmaker in the US beat rivals in a bidding
:10:49. > :10:54.war to acquire medication in August. Investors want an update on how the
:10:55. > :10:59.takeover is working out. Also, Kellogg are reporting, it's over
:11:00. > :11:04.seals sales are forecast to have fallen, thanks to the weakness of
:11:05. > :11:06.currencies in key South American markets, and the important market of
:11:07. > :11:13.the UK, with its much weakened sterling. The other big market event
:11:14. > :11:17.that we issue will generate no news is the latest meeting of the Federal
:11:18. > :11:22.Reserve's open market committee. It meets the two days, and everybody
:11:23. > :11:23.expects business rates -- interest rates to stay on hold, at least this
:11:24. > :11:28.time. Our market numbers may not be
:11:29. > :11:45.working, but Simon is! Yesterday Mark Carney was the story,
:11:46. > :11:50.how long would he extend his stay. He is going to stay for another year
:11:51. > :11:55.beyond the five years, but it is not the full term. It is fascinating.
:11:56. > :12:02.When he came into the role, he talked about only staying in for
:12:03. > :12:07.five years and staying until 2018. Then there was talk about taking the
:12:08. > :12:13.full term and going until 2020. Most people's expectations were that he
:12:14. > :12:19.would serve the full term. There has been a lot of negative comments
:12:20. > :12:22.aimed at him in recent weeks from Conservative politicians, columns
:12:23. > :12:26.written in newspapers, there was a sense he was come under increasing
:12:27. > :12:34.pressure. Interesting last week we heard the slightly ambiguous comment
:12:35. > :12:38.from -- and the sense he would make a statement this week. What is
:12:39. > :12:47.interesting, it is a half and half, by only going one year. He has that
:12:48. > :12:51.2018 will be the darkest point in the negotiations, so he has said,
:12:52. > :12:57.you need a safe pair of hands, but going to 2019, he is saying, as soon
:12:58. > :13:04.as we have got out of the woods, I am off. Maybe that is a measure of
:13:05. > :13:09.the political criticism. Neither too hot nor too cold. Sterling reacted
:13:10. > :13:18.on the back of that, but the lack of a big recovery in sterling tells you
:13:19. > :13:23.investors see what he is doing. It is an enormous week, we have the
:13:24. > :13:27.Federal Reserve decision, the Bank of England this week, the bank of
:13:28. > :13:31.Japan today, so many earnings stories, and we have an American
:13:32. > :13:35.election next week, so there will be a lot of inactivity. The Federal
:13:36. > :13:41.Reserve is highly likely to move on interest rates. They will wait until
:13:42. > :13:47.December. Interestingly, over the past few weeks, markets have
:13:48. > :13:55.factored in a Hillary Clinton victory. With the shift over the
:13:56. > :14:00.weekend, the comments coming out, the prediction markets are moving
:14:01. > :14:05.sharply the other way, they now have only a 70% chance of Hillary Clinton
:14:06. > :14:08.Winick. What is fully priced in suddenly looks at risk. It is giving
:14:09. > :14:14.you busy! Something has been! The inside track on 50 years
:14:15. > :14:17.in the entertainment business. The nightclub mogul
:14:18. > :14:19.Peter Stringfellow joins us later to talk clubs,
:14:20. > :14:21.cocktails and Brexit. You're with Business
:14:22. > :14:29.Live from BBC News. Business confidence rose
:14:30. > :14:34.in the three months to October, according to the latest assessment
:14:35. > :14:38.from the CBI. Exporters saw the largest boost
:14:39. > :14:42.in confidence as they cashed Theo Leggett is in our
:14:43. > :14:54.business newsroom. We could be forgiven for thinking
:14:55. > :14:57.business would be pessimistic, given the uncertainty around the
:14:58. > :15:06.referendum and the vote to leave the EU, but not so? Absolutely. This is
:15:07. > :15:09.a survey of over 400 small and medium enterprises, the companies
:15:10. > :15:13.which were a bit more keen on leaving the EU than their big
:15:14. > :15:16.business colleagues. What this survey has shown is that a small
:15:17. > :15:23.increase in overall confidence, you expect that, because there was a lot
:15:24. > :15:28.of uncertainty, but the big area where confidence is increasing is
:15:29. > :15:33.related to export. Let's go to my chart, which is working. This shows
:15:34. > :15:39.what happened to sterling over the past month alone. A big fall at the
:15:40. > :15:45.beginning of the month. That is on top of falls earlier in the year. It
:15:46. > :15:47.is looking up for small businesses who export, because their products
:15:48. > :15:54.when purchased overseas will be cheaper. But there is a downside.
:15:55. > :15:56.Things coming into this country that manufacturers need, they are getting
:15:57. > :16:00.more expensive, so unit costs are more expensive, so unit costs are
:16:01. > :16:07.rising. It is a two-way street, it is good news if you are an exporter,
:16:08. > :16:11.if you import products, it is not so good. The other problem is they are
:16:12. > :16:17.struggling to recruit enough qualified staff. They struggling
:16:18. > :16:20.more than they have done at any time since 2007. The picture is
:16:21. > :16:26.confidence is increasing, export confidence in particular, but costs
:16:27. > :16:32.are rising and well-qualified staff can sometimes be hard to find.
:16:33. > :16:45.you. Let me take you to a story on the live page. This may not come as
:16:46. > :16:49.a surprise to employers. 80% of school leavers lack essential
:16:50. > :16:56.business schools. This is a story from the chartered Institute of
:16:57. > :17:02.accountants. That is actually worse than last year, when it was 75%.
:17:03. > :17:06.There is clearly a question about what people are being taught in
:17:07. > :17:07.schools and whether it is relevant for the world of work.
:17:08. > :17:12.Profits at oil giant BP have fallen 48% compared to this time last year
:17:13. > :17:17.as the firm grapples with the flagging price of crude.
:17:18. > :17:21.Meanwhile, Shell has beaten market expectations with a rise in profits,
:17:22. > :17:24.but it says that capital expenditure will be towards the lower end
:17:25. > :17:42.For you and me, they will spend less on things like exploration.
:17:43. > :17:44.Now, our next guest needs little introduction...
:17:45. > :17:47.He's a mainstay of the British clubbing scene spanning 50 years.
:17:48. > :17:50.He is the nightclub mogul Peter Stringfellow.
:17:51. > :17:55.Now in his mid-70s, Peter Stringfellow is a self-made
:17:56. > :17:57.multimillionaire who has been running nightclubs and gentlemen's
:17:58. > :18:05.with the likes of Prince, Marvin Gaye, Rod Stewart Tom Jones
:18:06. > :18:12.Not content with the business of partying -
:18:13. > :18:15.Stringfellow also dabbles in politics and has donated tens
:18:16. > :18:19.of thousands of pounds to the UK Conservative Party -
:18:20. > :18:21.recently noting his admiration for Prime Minister Theresa May.
:18:22. > :18:23.Originally a strong supporter of the UK remaining
:18:24. > :18:27.IN the EU, He now says he wants to make the most of the UK's
:18:28. > :18:30.decision to leave, saying "it's more romantic to be for Brexit".
:18:31. > :18:48.Good morning. There is so much to talk about but for the benefit of
:18:49. > :18:52.our viewers and around the world, tell us how it began. Quite an
:18:53. > :18:59.amazing story about the hiring of a hall on a Friday night and signing a
:19:00. > :19:09.little-known band called The Beatles. I left school when I was --
:19:10. > :19:20.in the 1950s, when I was 21, I started looking at church hall in
:19:21. > :19:30.Sheffield. On Fridays, it cost me ?3, and a new record came out cold
:19:31. > :19:34.Love Me Do and some girl said, what about this record. Nobody bothered
:19:35. > :19:38.with records because you could hardly hear them. So I booked The
:19:39. > :19:44.Beatles, it took us three days to negotiate it, ?85. I came out
:19:45. > :19:52.sweating, I thought, I can always cancel them. Luckily I did not. Come
:19:53. > :20:05.February, their record was number one, they played for me on that week
:20:06. > :20:10.and the rest is history. Spin forward 50 years. Let's talk about
:20:11. > :20:13.the market you find yourself in now. You could create an industry from
:20:14. > :20:25.nothing. Now it's a difficult industry to be in. You can still
:20:26. > :20:33.rent a hall and put a band on. You've got to start somewhere. I was
:20:34. > :20:37.a disc jockey for 20 years. By the way, I was fantastic. You've got to
:20:38. > :20:43.live it like I did and it cannot be a part-time job. When I started with
:20:44. > :20:50.my church hall, within the second Friday I'd booked in an outfit which
:20:51. > :20:57.made me ?65. Sheffield had never seen this group. Fantastic. Once you
:20:58. > :21:01.start that kind of thing, I live that life. I did not do anything
:21:02. > :21:06.else and I've never done anything else since. Nightclubs for me. What
:21:07. > :21:16.is the future? I understand you're looking into virtual reality. Very
:21:17. > :21:26.much. There's always something happening here that other countries
:21:27. > :21:36.come and look at. I had someone who wants to come into London. There is
:21:37. > :21:46.something special about where we live and we can do it. As far as I'm
:21:47. > :22:00.concerned. I was four Remain but we cannot go back to that. We are
:22:01. > :22:08.Brexit. You spoke about the future and adapting to the way people go to
:22:09. > :22:14.nightclubs. A lot of people say people prefer to stay inside and
:22:15. > :22:34.nightclubs are dead. That has fundamentally changed. That is how
:22:35. > :22:42.it happens, it was Strictly Come Dancing kind of stuff, I was
:22:43. > :22:46.bringing people from America. Rod Stewart. All it went. Brand-new
:22:47. > :22:51.stuff, you did not know where you're going, it is like that today, we
:22:52. > :22:54.don't know where we are going. So what? There will always be people
:22:55. > :23:00.who want to be together and see each other. Culturally, things have
:23:01. > :23:04.changed significantly. Gentleman is clubs are no longer viewed in the
:23:05. > :23:12.same way they were 30 years ago. When I started it was outrageous and
:23:13. > :23:19.that was 1996, they are accepted now and I'm very happy about that. It is
:23:20. > :23:25.really good to speak to you. We've only scratched the surface. Come
:23:26. > :23:34.back and talk to us soon. I want to hear about virtual reality
:23:35. > :23:46.nightclubs as well. Do stay with us but in the meantime here is how to
:23:47. > :23:51.stay in touch. You can stay with us and all the latest news on the BBC
:23:52. > :23:52.website. We want to hear from you. Get involved on the BBC business
:23:53. > :24:10.live web page. What other business
:24:11. > :24:12.stories has the media been The BBC's Dominic
:24:13. > :24:21.O'Connell is with us. This is a great story. The Saudi
:24:22. > :24:27.king appoints a new finance minister. It tells us a lot about
:24:28. > :24:32.the oil prices. With them we are seeing the corporate pain but the
:24:33. > :24:37.real pain is countries that rely on it. It has been running down its
:24:38. > :24:42.reserves at a rate of knots and trying to rebuild the economy. One
:24:43. > :24:48.of the visible symbols has been the remaking of the Cabinet. The finance
:24:49. > :24:57.minister has only been in the job for 20 years. Sony has just done one
:24:58. > :25:11.of the biggest bond issues in history, $7.5 billion. Timing is
:25:12. > :25:19.everything. Interestingly announcers before a bond issue. Replacing the
:25:20. > :25:24.oil minister, who had been there for 20 years, the new Crown Prince
:25:25. > :25:29.trying to remake the economy so it is not reliant on oil. There is a
:25:30. > :25:33.big jump to be made there. Your take on Mark Carney. He will stay until
:25:34. > :25:43.2019. It's about the best compromise, I suspect. George
:25:44. > :25:50.Osborne, remember, he did not fill out a job application for eight
:25:51. > :25:55.years. Probably about right. Thank you for your company. That's another
:25:56. > :26:13.business live. We will see you again tomorrow.
:26:14. > :26:15.It is time to reorganise the wardrobe. After