:00:00. > :00:00.This is Business Live from BBC News, with Aaron Heslehurst
:00:00. > :00:10.As 2016 draws to a close, we'll look back on a year
:00:11. > :00:12.which featured two events that will shape the global economy
:00:13. > :00:31.Welcome to Business Live: Review 2016.
:00:32. > :00:33.This year saw the UK take the momentous decision
:00:34. > :00:41.We'll take a look at what lies in store in the next 12 months.
:00:42. > :00:51.Billionaire businessman Donald Trump wins the race for the White House.
:00:52. > :00:54.He's made some bold announcements, but was it all talk and no action?
:00:55. > :00:57.And it's been a turbulent year for global markets.
:00:58. > :01:00.Oil prices hit a historic low, but there's light at the end
:01:01. > :01:03.of the tunnel, following a landmark deal between members
:01:04. > :01:10.Exploding phones, driverless cars and virtual reality.
:01:11. > :01:13.It's been an eventful twelve months in the the world of tech,
:01:14. > :01:16.but what can we look forward to in 2017?
:01:17. > :01:30.We'll speak to our resident gadget guru Rory-Cellan Jones.
:01:31. > :01:32.Welcome to a very special edition of Business Live.
:01:33. > :01:36.This year saw two of the biggest political results of the decade
:01:37. > :01:38.as the recent trend towards globalisation
:01:39. > :01:43.There are now dark clouds of uncertainty hanging over two
:01:44. > :01:46.of the world's biggest economies - Europe and the United States.
:01:47. > :01:49.Let's start by looking back at what happened following the UK's
:01:50. > :01:55.momentous decision to leave the European Union.
:01:56. > :01:58.Tonight at 10 - the voters decide that, after four decades,
:01:59. > :02:02.it is time for Britain to leave the European Union.
:02:03. > :02:05.I don't think it would be right for me to try to be the captain
:02:06. > :02:10.that steers our country to its next destination.
:02:11. > :02:12.Across Asia today, we have seen shares fall on the major markets
:02:13. > :02:16.like Japan's Nikkei, down more than 7%.
:02:17. > :02:18.Look what happened, it tumbled down to levels we have not
:02:19. > :02:22.Many people in the financial markets caught, perhaps,
:02:23. > :02:32.Brexit means Brexit, and we are going to make a success of it.
:02:33. > :02:35.It is a victory against the big merchant banks, against the big
:02:36. > :02:42.The end of the day, Jamie Dimon, Lloyd Blankfein,
:02:43. > :02:45.you want to take your troops from JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs
:02:46. > :02:47.to Paris, to the Boulevard, have a lovely holiday.
:02:48. > :02:52.I'll give you a clue, guys - you'll be back.
:02:53. > :02:59.I'm joined by our economics editor, Kamal Ahmed.
:03:00. > :03:07.We saw Brexit back in the summer. Looking ahead to 2017, where do we
:03:08. > :03:12.stand in terms of UK negotiations? Everything looks so uncertain. The
:03:13. > :03:17.phoney war will come to an end, Britain voted to leave the European
:03:18. > :03:22.Union in jaw and the practicalities of that will begin next year. -- in
:03:23. > :03:27.June. The British Government wants to spark Article 50 which starts the
:03:28. > :03:34.process of exit. By the end of March. That is a two year process so
:03:35. > :03:38.that should be completed, we think, by 2019. There are tensions on both
:03:39. > :03:43.sides. In Britain, there are tensions between those who want what
:03:44. > :03:47.is cold a hard Brexit, fully out of the single market and the Customs
:03:48. > :03:52.Union, able to sign trade deals around the world itself, with no
:03:53. > :03:57.reference to the European Union. And those that want a softer Brexit,
:03:58. > :04:01.still having preferential access to the single market, possibly still in
:04:02. > :04:05.the Customs Union. That is tension on one side. On the European side,
:04:06. > :04:16.the 27 other member states, there are tensions between those who want
:04:17. > :04:18.to ensure Britain does not get a better deal by going out of the
:04:19. > :04:21.European Union, politically unpalatable as that is, and Britain
:04:22. > :04:23.is the second largest economy in Europe. They do not want to set up
:04:24. > :04:28.trade barriers so the European economy suffers by losing the
:04:29. > :04:31.British market. London, one of the leading global financial centres and
:04:32. > :04:38.Europe needs the city to front some businesses.
:04:39. > :04:43.Indeed. Let's bring up the board. I want to talk about the FTSE and the
:04:44. > :04:50.pound. This is how they have ended as of December 20. The FTSE nearly
:04:51. > :04:55.13% and the sterling down 16%, we were expecting that. If they vote
:04:56. > :05:00.for Brexit happens, we would see that pound punch. The judgment was
:05:01. > :05:03.investors would think assets in the UK would be less valuable in the
:05:04. > :05:09.future so their money would be better employed on the continent and
:05:10. > :05:13.frankly in America. And so the pound has fallen in value. What is
:05:14. > :05:18.interesting and more surprising is how good equities have been and the
:05:19. > :05:22.markets. In a way, although Brexit is incredibly important politically
:05:23. > :05:28.and economically, the fundamentals have not changed that much yet. And
:05:29. > :05:32.so equities remain very quite -- attracted because of the high bloke
:05:33. > :05:39.interest-rate and loose monetary policy, no signal yet from Britain,
:05:40. > :05:44.the Central Bank in the UK and Europe that interest rates will rise
:05:45. > :05:49.soon and quickly. So the equities run has been very powerful, a lot of
:05:50. > :05:52.those in the FTSE, in the London markets, they are global companies.
:05:53. > :05:59.Their profits are in dollars so as sterling falls... Their profits have
:06:00. > :06:04.gone upwards. So there is a situation where those equities are
:06:05. > :06:08.doing rather well and you have a clash. Equities positive, sterling
:06:09. > :06:12.has had a tough three months. The European project, how is it
:06:13. > :06:17.looking going into 2017? Brexit is important but I would not suggest it
:06:18. > :06:21.is the most important thing in Europe in 2017. You have elections
:06:22. > :06:26.in the Netherlands and in France and in Germany. And each of those
:06:27. > :06:32.elections will be a big test about the kind of Europe that the voters
:06:33. > :06:36.in Europe want. A reformed Europe, high levels of unemployment,
:06:37. > :06:40.problems with growth. What type of Europe will people who support the
:06:41. > :06:44.project, windows elections, or will people who want to rip up the
:06:45. > :06:49.project and cause more tension in Europe and possibly split up the EU,
:06:50. > :06:54.will they wind? It will be a fascinating year. But the cards on
:06:55. > :06:58.the table, could we see a European shock like we have seen Brexit and
:06:59. > :07:03.the election of Donald Trump? We need to be careful, the pull
:07:04. > :07:08.suggests not, but at the end of 2017, what might be described as the
:07:09. > :07:13.establishment parties have put themselves back at the centre of
:07:14. > :07:16.Europe -- the pulls. The European project is incredibly important
:07:17. > :07:22.European government and at the end of 2017, it is suggested they will
:07:23. > :07:29.look more victorious than knows what that one to split up the EU. One
:07:30. > :07:30.thing we learned this year it was do not listen to the pollsters!
:07:31. > :07:32.Happy New Year! The UK's decision to leave
:07:33. > :07:34.the European Union certainly surprised global markets,
:07:35. > :07:37.but investors didn't need to wait In the United States,
:07:38. > :07:40.the billionaire businessman Donald Trump swept to power in one
:07:41. > :07:43.of the most divisive political Let's look back at some
:07:44. > :07:51.of the highlights. Right now, 92 million Americans
:07:52. > :07:53.are on the sideline, It's a silent nation
:07:54. > :08:04.of jobless Americans. Donald was one of the people
:08:05. > :08:07.who rooted for the housing crisis. He said back in 2006, gee,
:08:08. > :08:10.I hope it does collapse because then I can go in and buy some
:08:11. > :08:13.and make some money. We will build the wall,
:08:14. > :08:21.100%, and Mexico will be Just imagine how many more
:08:22. > :08:30.automobile jobs will be lost We can't continue to allow China
:08:31. > :08:40.to rape our country. Donald J Trump, billionaire property
:08:41. > :08:46.developer with no previous experience of public office,
:08:47. > :08:48.is the 45th President Companies are not going to leave
:08:49. > :08:55.the United States any more It's not going to happen.
:08:56. > :08:59.It's not going to happen. Our number-one priority
:09:00. > :09:09.is going to be the economy, get back to 3% to 4% growth,
:09:10. > :09:18.we think that is very sustainable, and focus on things
:09:19. > :09:36.for the American worker. Nice thunderous music. I love the
:09:37. > :09:40.Pippa Malmgren is a former White House advisor and she joins
:09:41. > :09:51.You did it! You picked Brexit and Trump.
:09:52. > :09:54.Yes, it was a big year! Can you do the Lottery numbers?
:09:55. > :10:00.I know you want to talk about the economic and Trump's vision. This is
:10:01. > :10:06.what we have been hearing, is the team that he's building, what do you
:10:07. > :10:11.make of it? The last was Peter Navarro who wrote one of his box,
:10:12. > :10:17.Death by China. Yes, exactly, he is picking people with very different
:10:18. > :10:21.points of view. They are going to have a Cabinet that argues which
:10:22. > :10:26.might not be a bad thing, they will have debates about the right
:10:27. > :10:29.direction to go. Second thing, the establishment is very upset about
:10:30. > :10:34.these new people because they are not. And that was the point. The
:10:35. > :10:37.electorate said, I want the establishment out and something new
:10:38. > :10:43.that looks after my interests more. That is what I think they are going
:10:44. > :10:48.to deliver. Someone described this as bonfire of the agencies! Trump
:10:49. > :10:53.has been brought into literally burn the house down and start again,
:10:54. > :10:57.reconstruct this thing. And Washington was overgrown in many
:10:58. > :11:00.ways. Will there be accidents along the way? Every President makes
:11:01. > :11:04.mistakes and we will see those, certainly. But the upside may be
:11:05. > :11:08.greater than people expect. Just because they do not like him
:11:09. > :11:15.personally, the markets were like his policies. We have seen that with
:11:16. > :11:19.the Dell. The wild card is trade policy and whether that will harm
:11:20. > :11:26.growth in the future. What is your take on that? Again, I do not know,
:11:27. > :11:31.these are my personal views, I think that there is a lot of bluster about
:11:32. > :11:36.trade policy. But in the end, what they want to do is sell more
:11:37. > :11:41.American birds, have better quality imports. So the end goal is to have
:11:42. > :11:50.trade. -- American goods. They will not use that word, we will have less
:11:51. > :11:54.talk about free trade, does it mean something profoundly different?
:11:55. > :12:00.Maybe not. You cannot cede the US as an island, it has got to trade in
:12:01. > :12:06.the world. To be fair, less than 10% of US GDP depends on exports are as
:12:07. > :12:10.a nation, we are incredibly lucky. We can be an engine even if the rest
:12:11. > :12:14.of the world is not going well, trade is as small part of our
:12:15. > :12:18.economy compared to most others so that is something to keep in mind.
:12:19. > :12:19.Thank you very much indeed. Happy New Year.
:12:20. > :12:21.Still to come: Exploding phones, driverless cars
:12:22. > :12:24.It's been an eventful 12 months in the world of tech,
:12:25. > :12:27.but what can we look forward to in 2017?
:12:28. > :12:30.We'll speak to our resident gadget guru Rory-Cellan Jones.
:12:31. > :12:37.You're with Business Live from BBC News.
:12:38. > :12:39.Throughout the show, we've been hearing about how
:12:40. > :12:42.the events of 2016 are set to the shape the business
:12:43. > :12:48.Here's the BBC's Theo Leggett with a timeline of key events
:12:49. > :12:58.In January, President-Elect Donald Trump takes the reigns
:12:59. > :13:02.in the White House, and onlookers will be keen to see if he follows
:13:03. > :13:04.through with his plan to restrict trade and inject hundreds
:13:05. > :13:07.of billions of dollars into the US economy.
:13:08. > :13:10.Fast-forward a couple of months and we'll see the first big
:13:11. > :13:13.The UK Prime Minister says she'll trigger Article 50
:13:14. > :13:16.This is when Britain can start formal negotiations
:13:17. > :13:25.And we'll begin to see what the new relationship could look
:13:26. > :13:29.This is, of course, crucial to the future of the EU project.
:13:30. > :13:31.France is one other country which will be
:13:32. > :13:35.In April, it'll hold the first round of its Presidential election.
:13:36. > :13:38.The far-right candidate Marine Le Pen is riding high
:13:39. > :13:40.on a wave of anti-establishment politics which is currently
:13:41. > :13:46.The leader of the Front National is a staunch Eurosceptic,
:13:47. > :13:49.so there could be some further bad news for Brussels if
:13:50. > :13:57.Recent events have seen Chancellor Angela Merkel come
:13:58. > :13:59.under fire for her open-door migrant policy.
:14:00. > :14:08.The public could go to the polls as early as August 27th.
:14:09. > :14:11.The German leader has seen a steady decline in her popularity ratings
:14:12. > :14:19.Let's take a look at how markets have fared over
:14:20. > :14:21.the course of the year, starting with stocks in Europe.
:14:22. > :14:24.Yes, there you can see sterling down against the dollar by 16%
:14:25. > :14:30.as a result of the uncertainty surrounding the Brexit vote.
:14:31. > :14:40.the FTSE gained around 13% this year.
:14:41. > :14:48.A quick look at US stocks now - the DOW Jones rose
:14:49. > :14:56.US markets actually broke all records following the US election.
:14:57. > :14:58.Investors are perhaps anticipating Donald Trump will follow
:14:59. > :15:01.through with his $1 trillion spending plan and this could provide
:15:02. > :15:11.And they need it right now. Borrow and build, but maybe they don't need
:15:12. > :15:11.to borrow? A lot of investors will throw money into construction
:15:12. > :15:20.programmes. You are watching the review of 2016
:15:21. > :15:24.on Business Live. The events of the past 12 months
:15:25. > :15:27.have made for a turbulent At the turn of the year,
:15:28. > :15:31.the price of oil was already at its lowest point for a decade -
:15:32. > :15:34.this had investors wondering whether In January, Iran returned
:15:35. > :15:37.to international markets following the lifting of Western
:15:38. > :15:40.sanctions and crude fell below $28 dollars per barrel -
:15:41. > :15:45.but this proved to be short lived. In the first half of the year,
:15:46. > :15:48.the market rallied as some of that And in September some of the world's
:15:49. > :15:55.leading oil producing nations managed to reach
:15:56. > :15:57.a landmark agreement. For the first time in over 8 years,
:15:58. > :16:00.members of the Opec oil cartel Initially the market had its doubts
:16:01. > :16:08.that the deal would hold, but after Iran and Saudi Arabia
:16:09. > :16:11.agreed to resolve their differences, Iain Reid is a senior oil
:16:12. > :16:33.and gas equity analyst A good Ozzie institution. That is
:16:34. > :16:38.the key, they have all agreed, but will they stick to that? Yes,
:16:39. > :16:43.compliance is always the key. As you say, they have not done it for a
:16:44. > :16:47.while. What encourages the market is that the core countries of Opec, the
:16:48. > :16:54.Gulf countries, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, UAE, they make over half of
:16:55. > :16:59.it and they really have to comply, given their budget constraints. We
:17:00. > :17:03.think most of the rest of the countries will comply to some
:17:04. > :17:08.degree. Some are tempted by the slightly higher oil price, to
:17:09. > :17:12.increase supply and make more money. It has been hard going for countries
:17:13. > :17:16.in South America, some African countries? Yes, Libya and Nigeria
:17:17. > :17:21.are coming out of a pretty depressed position anyway. They will be
:17:22. > :17:26.allowed to increase. There will be some choosing, but there will be a
:17:27. > :17:28.lot of compliance, I think. We finally saw that announcement, we
:17:29. > :17:33.have been talking about it for days and weeks in the lead up, they have
:17:34. > :17:37.made this agreement. But they cut at record levels. Russia was producing
:17:38. > :17:42.more than 11 million a day, something like that. Does it really
:17:43. > :17:47.make a big difference? Well, demand is also increasing. Lower prices
:17:48. > :17:53.means it is cheaper. That demand growth has been good. How long do
:17:54. > :17:57.think that will last, now prices are rising? Unless there is a recession
:17:58. > :18:00.in the West, I think there will be a decent amount of growth, which will
:18:01. > :18:04.increase the wiggle room some of the country's health. The US is also
:18:05. > :18:08.producing quite a lot of the world us oil. The worry is that with
:18:09. > :18:15.higher prices they will produce even more. The Americans? Fracking? They
:18:16. > :18:21.will come into it, and make money. A lot of them shut production when the
:18:22. > :18:25.prices got too low, but they can switch it on pretty quickly? There
:18:26. > :18:31.is a finite limit to that, to be honest. With a bit of compliance and
:18:32. > :18:39.demand growth, I think the oil price will reach $60. Next year? Yes, it
:18:40. > :18:50.is $55 now. Look at the chart, Brent crude is up 46% in 2016. Predictions
:18:51. > :18:55.for 2017? Over $60. But not the $100 mark that we have seen before? Not
:18:56. > :19:02.unless there is a cataclysm, but don't rule that out. But we're not
:19:03. > :19:05.forecasting that. A nice smooth path up to 70. We will put you back on
:19:06. > :19:12.next year to see if you are right! In a moment, we'll be talking
:19:13. > :19:26.tech with our gadget He is taking photos and he will put
:19:27. > :19:37.it on social media. We are going to take a look at the year in social.
:19:38. > :20:00.These are daft people in our office playing it!
:20:01. > :20:04.It changed my life for a week and then, poof, it was gone."
:20:05. > :20:18.He said it was the best out of this year.
:20:19. > :20:22.A viewer in Scotland says "No, I would never use a driverless taxi
:20:23. > :20:27.Mutala in India, "I would be scared to sit in one in India because it
:20:28. > :20:49.I tweeted this about five o'clock this morning
:20:50. > :20:51.and had nothing but short, sharp, shrift, responses
:20:52. > :21:07.2016 has been an eventful year in the world of tech.
:21:08. > :21:09.As you've just seen, driverless taxis picked up passengers
:21:10. > :21:18.And the war between Samsung and Apple reached explosive new heights.
:21:19. > :21:25.We're joined by our technology correspondent Rory-Cellan Jones.
:21:26. > :21:35.You see that picture? Is this the future? We said that 2016 was going
:21:36. > :21:39.to be the year of virtual reality. We saw a lot of launchers. I don't
:21:40. > :21:42.think we have seen mass take-up. What we are now seeing is the
:21:43. > :21:47.emergence of cheaper forms. This is an example, a cheap headset into
:21:48. > :21:54.which you put a mobile phone. Much easier to get to grips with. Not as
:21:55. > :22:00.good as things like Oculus Rift. What does it do? Why are you doing?
:22:01. > :22:08.You are being transported new worlds. I like the world I am living
:22:09. > :22:11.in! Good question, but my experience, the first time somebody
:22:12. > :22:18.does this, I did it with family members, an ageing parent the other
:22:19. > :22:21.day, they are quite excited by it. My question mark is whether this
:22:22. > :22:28.will last. The first experience is great and then you do begin to say,
:22:29. > :22:34.yes, what is it for? It is fun now, but they have to apply to something?
:22:35. > :22:40.Something constructive? We are seeing augmented reality, putting
:22:41. > :22:42.virtual object in the real world, the great example was Pokemon Go,
:22:43. > :22:53.wandering around with phones, catching Pikachu. Microsoft has a
:22:54. > :22:57.thing that takes virtual objects of a step into the real world. It has a
:22:58. > :23:10.business application for that. Voice control? Aaron, be quiet. OK,
:23:11. > :23:17.Google. It works! Happy to help... Be quiet for one moment. Who is Alan
:23:18. > :23:24.Haselhurst? According to Wikipedia, he is a BBC world television
:23:25. > :23:31.presenter... It got it! This is an intelligent assistant. It offers
:23:32. > :23:36.questions like how old is he? We will not go on to that. We
:23:37. > :23:43.celebrated our 70th birthday this year. We have already seen this year
:23:44. > :23:51.the Amazon Echo, the voice control speaker taking off. You have a
:23:52. > :23:56.picture of that. And Google Home. Voice becoming the new interface.
:23:57. > :24:07.This is a Google mobile phone, using the smart assistant. You also have
:24:08. > :24:14.Siri in Apple devices and Cortana in Microsoft. It knows when I ask who
:24:15. > :24:19.Alan Haselhurst is, a good follow-up question, how old is he? Who would
:24:20. > :24:25.buy these things? They are buying them. These voice controlled
:24:26. > :24:27.speakers are out there. It's not so much that these are products people
:24:28. > :24:31.are going to buy, they are out there. They are in the environment,
:24:32. > :24:36.voice control is becoming a thing. This is stuff, when we were younger,
:24:37. > :24:42.we would watch science fiction films, they would be on a spaceship,
:24:43. > :24:45.talking to Alexa or whatever? What amazes me is how blase we are about
:24:46. > :24:48.it. In Star Trek there were devices where you could speak in one
:24:49. > :24:57.language and it would come out in another. We got back! -- we got
:24:58. > :25:02.that! What about driverless cars? It all feeds into the same theme, more
:25:03. > :25:05.intelligence being built into devices, principally cars. We have
:25:06. > :25:12.come an awful long way. We are expecting a lot more demos of that
:25:13. > :25:16.kind at the CES show in Las Vegas. That knowledge leads us into...
:25:17. > :25:21.About 40 seconds left, into the internet of things? Yes, a bunch of
:25:22. > :25:25.devices, everything connected to the internet. That is a smart doorbell
:25:26. > :25:30.with a camera. It will identify who has come to the door and you can let
:25:31. > :25:38.them in through smartphone. Smart lighting, that you can control
:25:39. > :25:43.through the mobile phone. Drones. You said you wanted one before I
:25:44. > :25:54.came on. A lot more in the sky. Rory turns on his Christmas tree lights
:25:55. > :26:00.through his phone. Hey, Siri, to the Christmas lights on. We love you, in
:26:01. > :26:02.the non-biblical sense, thanks for joining us. See you in the New Year.