20/01/2017

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:00:00. > :00:20.Live from London, that's our top story on Friday the 20th of January.

:00:21. > :00:22.Slashing taxes, talking tough on trade and ripping up

:00:23. > :00:27.America's President-elect promises double the growth

:00:28. > :00:40.Plus his arch rival China confirms its weakest growth since 1990,

:00:41. > :00:44.with fears of even tougher times ahead.

:00:45. > :00:47.And given the inauguration today, one word dominates the markets,

:00:48. > :00:50.that's caution. And we'll be getting the inside

:00:51. > :00:53.track on the mining industry. The founder and chairman

:00:54. > :00:55.of one of the world's largest mining companies -

:00:56. > :01:00.Vedanta Resources - will join us. We'll get his thoughts

:01:01. > :01:03.on the Trump presidency, and likely drivers for

:01:04. > :01:05.commodity prices this year. And we also want to

:01:06. > :01:07.know your thoughts - Are you optimistic or pessimistic

:01:08. > :01:30.about the new leader of the free Or dump! Welcome to the programme.

:01:31. > :01:33.Lots going on, we've got that Friday feeling.

:01:34. > :01:36.Later today Donald Trump will be sworn in as the 45th President

:01:37. > :01:43.The billionaire businessman has gone from long-shot candidate

:01:44. > :01:47.to the leader of world's biggest economy in just a year and a half.

:01:48. > :01:50.His supporters will now be hoping that he can shake up the US economy

:01:51. > :01:56.in the same way the he shook up the presidential race.

:01:57. > :02:00.Let's take a look at some of the details that we know.

:02:01. > :02:03.He has promised to create 25 million jobs over ten years,

:02:04. > :02:06.and to double the annual rate of economic growth to 4%.

:02:07. > :02:10.He's promised to take a tough line on trade -

:02:11. > :02:12.and on countries he sees as undercutting US workers

:02:13. > :02:24.He's threatened to slap a 35% tariff on Mexican imports and a 45%

:02:25. > :02:27.tariff on products from China, raising fears he could

:02:28. > :02:47.One thing at the top of the list that we know he has said:

:02:48. > :02:49.the North American Free Trade Agreement.

:02:50. > :02:52.He also says he'll cut America's high corporate taxes -

:02:53. > :02:54.which have pushed big US firms to offshore a lot

:02:55. > :02:59.Critics say this is too expensive, and will help big companies rather

:03:00. > :03:14.And he also promises... A lot of promises!

:03:15. > :03:17.He promises to free up business by ripping up red tape -

:03:18. > :03:19.he says 70% of all federal regulations can go.

:03:20. > :03:22.He hopes that will encourage firms to keep more jobs in the US

:03:23. > :03:31.The markets certainly like the approach, and the so-called

:03:32. > :03:36.Trump Rally saw the benchmark Dow Jones industrial average rise

:03:37. > :03:50.Laura Tyson, Professor at Haas School of Business,

:03:51. > :03:53.University of California Berkeley and former Chair of the US

:03:54. > :03:55.President's Council of Economic Advisers joins me

:03:56. > :04:10.Thank you for joining us. 25 million jobs in ten years. Can he do that?

:04:11. > :04:14.25 million jobs over ten years is actually an estimate that I think

:04:15. > :04:19.probably keeps up with the demographics of the labour supply,

:04:20. > :04:26.and is not a number that is out of range given a 10-year time horizon.

:04:27. > :04:34.There were something like 22 million jobs, I believe, during the Clinton

:04:35. > :04:38.Administration, I think. So that number is not the number I would

:04:39. > :04:43.look at. I would look at the growth rate number, which I think is not

:04:44. > :04:48.believable, the 4% growth rate. Talking about jobs, we saw some

:04:49. > :04:52.figures saying the US has lost about 5 million jobs since 2000, but 80%

:04:53. > :04:59.of that is due to automation rather than jobs being outsourced

:05:00. > :05:05.elsewhere. That's right. And I don't think people really understand that

:05:06. > :05:14.point. I do think the voters understand that. I think that any

:05:15. > :05:28.reassuring that occurs in the United States -- re-shoring that occurs.

:05:29. > :05:32.While they might have 20 workers to do a job abroad, they only need five

:05:33. > :05:38.in the United States because of automation. Typically after a 2-term

:05:39. > :05:45.president, typically a recession follows after that. I don't think

:05:46. > :05:52.that there is any theory which would suggest that to be the case. In the

:05:53. > :05:56.US economy, we have had a long period of economic growth, we have

:05:57. > :06:00.brought ourselves back in many parts of the country to follow employment.

:06:01. > :06:05.We still have the secular problem of employment creation that we talked

:06:06. > :06:11.about in terms of technology. I do think that is going to continue, but

:06:12. > :06:15.the economy is not right now, there are not obvious imbalance is, which

:06:16. > :06:20.would suggest that there would be a recession, so I don't buy the notion

:06:21. > :06:24.that there will be a certain period of years before you go into

:06:25. > :06:27.recession, whether or not there is a period of change in administration.

:06:28. > :06:33.I think you look for in balances in the economy. He has also suggested

:06:34. > :06:39.major tax cuts for corporations, will be enough to bring offshore

:06:40. > :06:42.back to the US? I do think one thing with certainty, thinking about the

:06:43. > :06:47.economy over the next year and several years, we will start with

:06:48. > :06:50.what we know for sure. We know for sure that the Republican Congress

:06:51. > :06:56.with the president will introduce significant tax cuts, personal tax

:06:57. > :07:02.cuts and corporate and business tax cuts, and there will be a need given

:07:03. > :07:06.the tax cuts to make sure that there are not large differentials between

:07:07. > :07:13.various forms of business taxes like pass through taxes for corporations,

:07:14. > :07:22.and corporate tax, so all these rates will come down. The president

:07:23. > :07:28.has proposed a very aggressive cut in corporate tax to 15%. Businesses

:07:29. > :07:34.have been looking for rates in the mid-20s, so 15% is a very low rate.

:07:35. > :07:40.One thing I would say about all of this is that there really is a

:07:41. > :07:44.tremendous reduction in the source of revenue for the Government, and

:07:45. > :07:48.that then is associated with lots of cuts in various spending programmes,

:07:49. > :07:53.so I do think that you are going to see for sure significant cuts in

:07:54. > :07:59.taxes. A cut in the business tax rate, the corporate tax rate, will

:08:00. > :08:03.almost certainly bring more investment into the United States,

:08:04. > :08:07.more capital investment, so one of the things that has been true about

:08:08. > :08:13.the economy is weak capital investment. Thank you very much your

:08:14. > :08:19.time this morning. It looks cold! Good snow. Says the lady who just

:08:20. > :08:20.got back from skiing! Let's look at some of the other stories making

:08:21. > :08:25.headlines all around the world. President-elect Donald Trump's

:08:26. > :08:26.choice for Treasury Secretary, Steven Mnuchin, has faced strong

:08:27. > :08:29.criticism during a Senate Mr Mnuchin is a former Goldman Sachs

:08:30. > :08:33.banker-turned hedge fund boss He faced accusations

:08:34. > :08:39.that his former bank, OneWest, ruined lives during the US property

:08:40. > :08:41.crash by foreclosing But he told the Senate Finance

:08:42. > :08:52.Committee "I have been maligned". Uber is paying $20m to settle

:08:53. > :08:55.allegations that it duped people into working

:08:56. > :08:58.for its ride-hailing service. The US Federal Trade Commission said

:08:59. > :09:01.Uber offered false promises about how much drivers would earn

:09:02. > :09:04.and how much they would have The agreement covers statements Uber

:09:05. > :09:09.made from late 2013 until 2015 while trying to recruit more drivers

:09:10. > :09:26.to expand its service and remain You are sitting down, you are doing

:09:27. > :09:34.it! I am doing the tablet. It is all about Trump today. We asked you

:09:35. > :09:38.start if you are optimistic or pessimistic about the impact you

:09:39. > :09:47.think trouble have the global economy. Already have some! This

:09:48. > :09:50.reader says, I am cautiously optimistic, another one is

:09:51. > :09:55.pessimistic. Some others also saying that they are very pessimistic.

:09:56. > :10:01.Let's wait and see. I'd lots on the tablet from both sides, as well. Now

:10:02. > :10:03.let's talk about the second biggest economy in the world. Official

:10:04. > :10:11.growth figures out of China. And they confirm that last year

:10:12. > :10:13.China's economy grew at its slowest pace in more

:10:14. > :10:16.than a quarter of a century. The growth rate hit 6.8 per cent

:10:17. > :10:20.in the last three months of 2016 - but that gives an overall rate

:10:21. > :10:23.of 6.7% for the year - The figure is in line with Beijing's

:10:24. > :10:33.official growth target Robin joins us from Shanghai. Do we

:10:34. > :10:39.trust the numbers, and what I really want to ask you is, if Trump sticks

:10:40. > :10:42.to his promise and causes a trade spat with China, that is probably

:10:43. > :10:49.the last thing the Chinese economy needs? Yes, on that first point, do

:10:50. > :10:53.we trust the numbers? There is always scepticism, but let's set

:10:54. > :11:04.that to one side for now. These numbers are bang on what the Chinese

:11:05. > :11:07.government have predicted. The trend of the slowdown continues, it is a

:11:08. > :11:12.managed slowdown in growth that the Chinese government want, and that is

:11:13. > :11:16.their overall aim. Looking to next year, we can look to see something

:11:17. > :11:21.in the low 6%, perhaps. But the bigger picture here as you say is

:11:22. > :11:24.that China is preparing for a Trump administration where it doesn't

:11:25. > :11:27.quite know what he will do. We have had the rhetoric, but there is fear

:11:28. > :11:34.about a trade war and possibly about a physical, military confrontation

:11:35. > :11:37.in the South China Sea. The main concern for the Chinese government

:11:38. > :11:42.is domestic, it is about trying to transform the economy here away from

:11:43. > :11:46.being one reliant on government money on exports, we saw a big drop

:11:47. > :11:51.in exports in those figures, and make it instead an economy driven by

:11:52. > :11:55.domestic and consumer spending. Robin, have a good weekend, we will

:11:56. > :11:59.talk to you soon. Let's stay with the markets.

:12:00. > :12:02.Caution is the key word on the markets around the world

:12:03. > :12:06.as we all await for the 45th president of the US to be sworn in.

:12:07. > :12:13.Even China's economic growth which beat expectations and Federal

:12:14. > :12:20.Reserve Chair Janet Yellen who toned down her earlier hawkish policy

:12:21. > :12:25.stance hasn't been enough to give a real boost.

:12:26. > :12:33.They are waiting to see what Trump and his team put together in terms

:12:34. > :12:36.of economic policies. So on that note - I wonder

:12:37. > :12:44.what'll be making the biz US financial markets have been

:12:45. > :12:50.jubilant ever since Donald Trump's surprise election win, hitting a

:12:51. > :12:55.series of record highs. Now that he is about to be sworn in as the 45th

:12:56. > :12:59.President of the United States, will Mr Trump continue to make markets

:13:00. > :13:03.great again? Stocks initially rallied on the hope that the

:13:04. > :13:07.incoming administration would deliver an campaign promises to

:13:08. > :13:12.rollback regulations, cut taxes and spend on infrastructure. Lately they

:13:13. > :13:15.have been trading in a narrower range, someone in investors have

:13:16. > :13:20.been too focused on the upside, and haven't given enough thought to the

:13:21. > :13:24.potential negatives. At present, Wall Street doesn't seem to be

:13:25. > :13:28.anticipating problems either with Mr Trump was my trade policies or in

:13:29. > :13:32.terms of delays by Congress. Will that view change once he takes

:13:33. > :13:35.office? And on the corporate front, watch out for earnings from the

:13:36. > :13:35.likes of General Electric and doctor and Gamble.

:13:36. > :13:38.Thank you, Michelle. Joining us is Lawrence Gosling,

:13:39. > :13:46.editor in chief at Investment Week. Thank you for coming in this

:13:47. > :13:49.morning. The husband a lot of noise around the markets, Theresa May

:13:50. > :13:54.outlining Brexit, the Chinese president in Davos, Trump's

:13:55. > :13:58.inauguration, but underneath all of that, how other markets doing? There

:13:59. > :14:00.is an outbreak of what you call a traditional business cycle but

:14:01. > :14:05.economists look like that starts with a recovery in the US which we

:14:06. > :14:10.have had for the last couple of years, filters over to the UK and

:14:11. > :14:16.moves across the world. The UK is hungry -- the UK economy is healthy,

:14:17. > :14:27.there are signs that Europe is beginning to pick up, and a lot of

:14:28. > :14:32.people perhaps confused by China, Brexit, an interesting time for the

:14:33. > :14:37.markets. I will take a sharp turn and talk about, we just mentioned

:14:38. > :14:40.that Trump and his team will look at the North American Free Trade

:14:41. > :14:46.Agreement, lots of criticism to Mexico, but Mexico provides United

:14:47. > :14:50.States with about 80% of their avocados, and I can tell you what

:14:51. > :15:00.they love, they love guacamole in America! Particularly on Super Bowl

:15:01. > :15:08.day which is coming up! The avocados were banned a hundred years ago from

:15:09. > :15:11.going from America into the US, Nafta brought them back, and the

:15:12. > :15:15.Americans have been gobbling them down. We could see and do that, it

:15:16. > :15:19.would be a very small thing and it sounds trivial, but it is a piece of

:15:20. > :15:23.populist protectionism that might make Donald Trump unpopular. We will

:15:24. > :15:31.see! Do come back and take us through the papers. My father in

:15:32. > :15:34.Australia had an avocado tree in his backyard.

:15:35. > :15:37.Still to come: We'll find out what the head of one of the world's

:15:38. > :15:39.biggest mining companies is expecting from

:15:40. > :15:48.You're with Business Live from BBC News.

:15:49. > :15:50.The Association of Convenience Stores is calling upon

:15:51. > :15:52.the government to do more to support the UK's 19,000 rural shops.

:15:53. > :15:59.Hit by rising costs, a lack of high speed broadband

:16:00. > :16:00.and business rates - they're struggling.

:16:01. > :16:03.More than half of rural shops operate on their own,

:16:04. > :16:05.with no other retailer close by and are therefore essential

:16:06. > :16:08.Well let's find out more with Chris Noice,

:16:09. > :16:21.We heard what the issues are, what do you want the government to do

:16:22. > :16:24.about it? The report is highlighting the concerns we have about the

:16:25. > :16:29.viability of some rural shops, they are absolutely providing an

:16:30. > :16:37.essential service to communities across the UK. We want them to look

:16:38. > :16:41.at rural petrol stations, many of them are fully serviced convenience

:16:42. > :16:44.stores and they are not receiving the same rate relief that there are

:16:45. > :16:49.other rural counterparts are, as well. Many rural stores are

:16:50. > :16:53.disadvantaged by slow broadband speeds and slow mobile coverage.

:16:54. > :16:56.With many things going online it is important that these stores have a

:16:57. > :17:01.level playing field when making investments. Regarding investment,

:17:02. > :17:04.stores that are improving their business, spending money to make

:17:05. > :17:11.businesses better and more appealing, they are actually being

:17:12. > :17:20.dis- incentivised and we want to see that being changed. With Brexit, and

:17:21. > :17:26.what that has done with the value of the pound, it makes things more

:17:27. > :17:31.expensive for these shops to bring their goods in, are they telling you

:17:32. > :17:37.that? They don't have the buying power like the huge supermarkets.

:17:38. > :17:40.You are right. The buying power is different, but I think it is more of

:17:41. > :17:44.a secondary impact for the convenience sector because many

:17:45. > :17:50.stores source their goods locally and we have done research and the

:17:51. > :17:54.impact of Brexit is not hitting yet. It will be interesting to see how

:17:55. > :17:58.this changes in the next year. We appreciate your time. Thanks.

:17:59. > :18:05.There is a story on the tablet. Royal Mail, cost cuts ahead, tough

:18:06. > :18:13.times could be coming up again, because of a fall in the amount of

:18:14. > :18:18.letters we are sending. Send us some letters! There is an 11 month low

:18:19. > :18:25.for the share price. You're watching Business Live -

:18:26. > :18:28.our top story - later today Donald Trump will be sworn

:18:29. > :18:30.in as the 45th President The billionaire businessman who has

:18:31. > :18:34.gone from long shot candidate to the leader of world's biggest

:18:35. > :18:37.economy - is promising to bring A quick look at how

:18:38. > :18:54.markets are faring. The word is cautious today. They are

:18:55. > :19:02.waiting to see what Donald Trump will do when he act she gets into

:19:03. > :19:07.office. -- he. He has promised infrastructure investment and low

:19:08. > :19:08.tax rates, which could appeal to businesses, but they are holding

:19:09. > :19:12.their breath. Trump and China are likely

:19:13. > :19:16.drivers for commodity Meaning the future for

:19:17. > :19:19.natural resource companies But Vedanta Resources,

:19:20. > :19:22.one of the world's largest mining companies is unafraid

:19:23. > :19:26.of potential protectionist policies. But has he largely

:19:27. > :19:31.ignored the negative possibilities of tit-for-tat trade

:19:32. > :19:37.wars with China and other countries? Anil Agarwal founded the Group in

:19:38. > :19:40.1979 and is the Executive Chairman He joins us now from

:19:41. > :19:55.the World Economic Forum in Davos. Can we start with this, global

:19:56. > :19:59.companies like yours, you need free trade to create jobs and boost

:20:00. > :20:06.growth, what is your message to Donald Trump? Yeah, we have a very

:20:07. > :20:14.good relationship with America and India. Our companies, our company is

:20:15. > :20:24.1% GDP of the country, we produce oil, zinc, aluminium, and I've been

:20:25. > :20:29.hearing about his speech and to support his country for more jobs. I

:20:30. > :20:35.think Brexit is doing the same. India are doing the same. Trump is

:20:36. > :20:41.doing the same. Everyone has to hold onto their people and create more

:20:42. > :20:45.jobs I think he will look at that. He will look at this as a win-win

:20:46. > :20:49.situation where everybody can win, but as far as our country is

:20:50. > :20:57.concerned, we have a very good alignment with America. I want to

:20:58. > :21:02.ask you this. I will give you a break so you can swallow.

:21:03. > :21:08.Responsible leadership has been a big theme at Davos and we have got

:21:09. > :21:12.to ask you, your company has come under scrutiny, you have been

:21:13. > :21:23.criticised about your environmental impact. A team of top analysts in

:21:24. > :21:27.your country in India have described the data as being in total contempt

:21:28. > :21:37.of the law. No, this is absolutely incorrect. We are one of the world's

:21:38. > :21:43.best. We ranked one of the best. When you are in the resource

:21:44. > :21:49.industry you have got to be very careful and we use technology today.

:21:50. > :21:55.We are a new company and we can't do anything which is not right. Our

:21:56. > :22:05.environmental norms. India hardly produces anything and India has only

:22:06. > :22:08.done anything, about 10%, compare to the world, 90%, we import most of

:22:09. > :22:11.our oil and this government is completely looking to how we reform

:22:12. > :22:16.and make more oil and gas in the country and more copper in the

:22:17. > :22:25.country and how to open up the resources sector and how to do the

:22:26. > :22:31.start up. And create a phenomenal jobs, and for the world to come and

:22:32. > :22:37.invest. This is a huge market. It's a huge market. We are going to leave

:22:38. > :22:45.it there. We appreciate your time, as always. Stay warm. We are joined

:22:46. > :22:54.again by Laurence. We are going to talk about our paper

:22:55. > :22:58.stories. We have that tweet, what you think about Donald Trump?

:22:59. > :23:09.Optimistic or press mystic. Story here about his Treasury Nonna --

:23:10. > :23:14.treasury nominee who contradicted the president. -- optimistic or

:23:15. > :23:29.press mystic Donald Trump says he would like a

:23:30. > :23:34.weaker dollar. But this is a conflicting view. The treasury

:23:35. > :23:41.nominee is saying a stronger dollar is better. Well, the treasury

:23:42. > :23:45.nominee is going to get more respect because he has an economics

:23:46. > :23:48.background. The Treasury Secretary would hopefully understand the

:23:49. > :23:54.direction the country needs to go. The dollar needs to stay strong

:23:55. > :23:58.longer term. This is a good thing, they are having a discussion, these

:23:59. > :24:01.are the checks and balances will stop people are worried Donald Trump

:24:02. > :24:06.will do what he wants, but these are the checks and balances. Yes, the

:24:07. > :24:15.nation is not schedule challenging. Exactly. Sticking with that theme.

:24:16. > :24:26.Here goes the tablet. Inauguration ball. Michael Flatley to perform at

:24:27. > :24:31.the inauguration ball. Not quite perform, he has rickety knees, but

:24:32. > :24:36.he will lead his dance troop out and perform. He is most like the last

:24:37. > :24:44.man standing who actually wanted to agree to appear at this ball. What a

:24:45. > :24:52.comparison to the Obama ball. Yes, but I'm sure they will have fun,

:24:53. > :25:00.watching Michael Flatley. Being British, we go for Marmite. It is

:25:01. > :25:05.wonderful. Anyway, that you might is back in the hands of the Aussies.

:25:06. > :25:10.They will try to rebrand it, so it is not just for breakfast, you can

:25:11. > :25:19.have it all day long. You can have it with cheese in sandwiches, I have

:25:20. > :25:30.that at school, lettuce is very good with vegimite. Always a pleasure.

:25:31. > :25:34.There will be more business news throughout the day on the BBC Live

:25:35. > :25:36.webpage and on World Business Report.

:25:37. > :25:55.Good morning. It is a big day on the other side of the pond in Washington

:25:56. > :25:56.and we're expecting to see cloud thickening up and likely to bring

:25:57. > :25:58.some