10/02/2017

Download Subtitles

Transcript

:00:00. > :00:07.This is Business Live from BBC News with Aaron

:00:08. > :00:11.Japan's Prime Minister is in Washington to talk trade

:00:12. > :00:15.with President Trump but who'll come out on top of the leaderboard?

:00:16. > :00:18.Live from London, that's our top story on Friday

:00:19. > :00:37.Yes, touchdown - the leader of the world's third biggest

:00:38. > :00:43.And when he takes to the golf course with President Trump,

:00:44. > :00:46.he's going to have to defend why Japan sells more to the US

:00:47. > :00:53.Also in the programme - it's back!

:00:54. > :00:57.Greece's debt crisis returns to haunt Europe.

:00:58. > :01:00.Can its lenders agree a new deal, or will we have

:01:01. > :01:06.And we'll tell you why some solid numbers from China continue

:01:07. > :01:17.And those Trump promises pushing Wall Street to more record highs.

:01:18. > :01:21.And as President Trump orders a review of the financial rules

:01:22. > :01:24.designed to stop another nightmare on Wall Street, we'll be getting

:01:25. > :01:27.the inside track from our Economics Editor Kamal Ahmed on that

:01:28. > :01:30.and the rest of the stories he's been covering this week.

:01:31. > :01:34.As snow hits New York City, how much do you think it costs

:01:35. > :01:36.to clear an inch of the white stuff off the streets?

:01:37. > :01:38.One dollar? One hundred Dollars?

:01:39. > :01:42.We'll give you the answer at the end of the show.

:01:43. > :02:04.We start in the US where, as you've been hearing,

:02:05. > :02:07.Japan's Prime Minister Shinzo Abe meets President Trump later.

:02:08. > :02:16.Remember, one of Mr Trump's first actions as President

:02:17. > :02:20.was to withdraw from the 12-nation Trans Pacific Partnership trade

:02:21. > :02:22.deal - signed by Obama - and strongly supported

:02:23. > :02:33.Mr Trump called it a 'terrible' deal for the US.

:02:34. > :02:35.He wants a fairer trading relationship with Japan -

:02:36. > :02:44.Last year Japan sold almost $69 billion of more stuff

:02:45. > :02:48.to the US than it bought from the US.

:02:49. > :02:50.That 'trade surplus' as it's called is one of the biggest any

:02:51. > :02:57.To give you an idea of why - look at this.

:02:58. > :03:01.In 2015 - the latest figures we have - the US exported a little over

:03:02. > :03:10.Here's how many Japanese cars were sold

:03:11. > :03:13.that year in the US - 17.5 million - that's

:03:14. > :03:20.Here's a vital point though - most of those cars are actually made

:03:21. > :03:27.Mr Abe is expected to stress that 1.5 million American jobs rely -

:03:28. > :03:32.either directly or indirectly - on Japanese carmakers.

:03:33. > :03:35.On top of this - you have the so called

:03:36. > :03:41.Mr Trump has claimed the Japanese Yen is kept

:03:42. > :03:55.artificially low against the Dollar to help Japanese exporters.

:03:56. > :03:59.A weaker yen makes Japanese goods cheaper.

:04:00. > :04:03.And there's another big figure that is causing tension.

:04:04. > :04:10.$5.5 billion was the bill to keep US troops in Japan last year.

:04:11. > :04:15.Japan actually paid for almost half of that -

:04:16. > :04:17.according to their defence ministry, but Mr Trump says the US

:04:18. > :04:21.is shouldering too much of the burden of security

:04:22. > :04:28.So - how best to diffuse all this tension?

:04:29. > :04:30.Fung Siu, Asia, Regional Manager - Economist Intelligence

:04:31. > :04:43.Thank you for joining us. Let's start with trade. Aaron has given us

:04:44. > :04:47.the figures, what looks like a huge trade surplus, but part of that is

:04:48. > :04:52.caused by the car sales, which are supporting American jobs. So maybe

:04:53. > :04:58.that headline figure is not as bad as it looks. Completely, most of the

:04:59. > :05:05.car sales in America are actually manufactured in America by

:05:06. > :05:11.Americans. Yes, there are exports from Japan, auto exports to America,

:05:12. > :05:16.that is not the whole picture. You have machinely exports and optical

:05:17. > :05:21.goods. But America doesn't just have a trade deficit with Japan, it has a

:05:22. > :05:25.trade deficit with the world and has done for a few decades. President

:05:26. > :05:31.Trump picking a fight with Japan, he would have too pick a few fights

:05:32. > :05:36.with the other countries. What do you think Shinzo Abe wants to

:05:37. > :05:40.achieve from today? He obviously was not pleased that America pulled out

:05:41. > :05:44.of TPP, in terms of trade agreements, what do you think

:05:45. > :05:51.they're looking for? I think Shinzo Abe is disappointed that TPP has not

:05:52. > :05:59.been ratified. Japan had ratified it. But to say that in that front,

:06:00. > :06:03.Shinzo Abe at the start thought he could persuade Trump to come around

:06:04. > :06:08.to his idea that TPP is a good thing. I think he has ditched that

:06:09. > :06:19.idea and I think Shinzo Abe is prepared to enter into by lateral

:06:20. > :06:25.trade agreements. The US have said Japan is manipulating their currency

:06:26. > :06:32.you go from there? The weaker yen you go from there? The weaker yen

:06:33. > :06:37.quantitative easing that Japan quantitative easing that Japan

:06:38. > :06:42.launched in 2013. One side effect is the weak yen. That is because Japan

:06:43. > :06:52.is lacking inflation and wants to import inflation. This policy will

:06:53. > :06:56.go on, but it has ups and downs a and last year the yen appreciated,

:06:57. > :07:00.so I don't think President Trump has much to say on that front with

:07:01. > :07:06.regard to that particular year in the yen's performance. Thank you. Do

:07:07. > :07:12.you know anything about golf? No, #3w I do know that Super Mario is

:07:13. > :07:20.high on the list and they will play golf. I'm wondering who will win.

:07:21. > :07:26.They can play golf on the Nintendo. But it is, not quite the same thing.

:07:27. > :07:29.Some of the other stories making the headlines.

:07:30. > :07:31.Renault has posted record annual sales -

:07:32. > :07:37.up 13% with net income rising 16% to 3.5 billion euros.

:07:38. > :07:39.A series of new product launches boosted Renault last year,

:07:40. > :07:45.helping it increase its market share in all regions.

:07:46. > :07:55.Lower-cost models such as the Duster and Kwid also sold well.

:07:56. > :07:58.Arcelor Mittal, the world's largest steelmaker, has posted its first

:07:59. > :08:00.annual profit in five years, showing signs of recovery

:08:01. > :08:06.The Luxembourg-based group reported net income of $1.8 billion in 2016,

:08:07. > :08:13.even as sales fell just over 10%, but its debt pile shrank.

:08:14. > :08:19.This is in contrast to the $7.9 billion net loss that ArcelorMittal

:08:20. > :08:21.made the year before - its worst financial performance

:08:22. > :08:35.since the mega-merger of Mittal Steel and Europe's Arcelor in 2006.

:08:36. > :08:42.Now golf, Trump and Shinzo Abe will be playing golf. We could join them

:08:43. > :08:48.for a four-ball. I think President Trump will have to play more golf

:08:49. > :08:54.with the Chinese president. We had numbers from China. If President

:08:55. > :08:58.Trump is not happy with surplus from Japan, he won't be happy with the

:08:59. > :09:20.surplus from China. Lisha, this is an astonishing number

:09:21. > :09:25.and it is just one month's worth? Yes since we are all about the

:09:26. > :09:33.numbers today and deficit, according to US data, the US/China deficit

:09:34. > :09:39.last year was $347 billion. So they will have to play lot of golf to get

:09:40. > :09:44.through these tensions. So we have been speaking about that call

:09:45. > :09:48.between President Trump and president Ping and how that

:09:49. > :09:55.alleviated tensions over the one China policy. But this issue around

:09:56. > :10:01.trade will be the real battleground. China's trade surplus is at its

:10:02. > :10:05.highest in nearly half a year, that is $51 billion and President Trump

:10:06. > :10:10.has been arguing that China is benefitting at the ex-pension --

:10:11. > :10:13.expense of America and we saw exports rise in China and we are

:10:14. > :10:15.going to have to watch and see how the game goes. Watching and waiting

:10:16. > :10:21.indeed. Have a great weekend. Going to keep the market wrap short,

:10:22. > :10:25.but yes Asia stocks liking those Chinese trade numbers

:10:26. > :10:28.as well as the continued record Europe, following suit as investors

:10:29. > :10:34.keep their eyes on President Trump as he promised to unveil a major tax

:10:35. > :10:37.announcement to lower OK, let's go and find out what'll be

:10:38. > :10:58.making the biz headlines in the US. Much of the attention on Friday will

:10:59. > :11:01.be in washing tovn when President Trump meets with Prime Minister

:11:02. > :11:08.Shinzo Abe at the White House. There is still some other economic news,

:11:09. > :11:13.including labour department report showing that import prices rose in

:11:14. > :11:18.January after a 0.4% increase the previous month. The update to

:11:19. > :11:23.consumer sentiment index is out and it seems it may have spliped

:11:24. > :11:27.compared to the previous month and for an economy that relies on

:11:28. > :11:30.consumer spending, it is important to see how confident people are

:11:31. > :11:40.feeling and how much that will influence how they spend and finally

:11:41. > :11:45.earnings still continue, the advertising company Inter Public

:11:46. > :11:52.shows a slight rise, as the economy showed momentum. Thank you.

:11:53. > :11:56.Joining us is Sue Noffke, UK Equities Fund Manager at Schroders.

:11:57. > :12:03.Let's start with the markets, because Aaron mentioned about

:12:04. > :12:08.President Trump's promise to help with regulation and he has promised

:12:09. > :12:13.a phenomenal new rules on regulation. But still no detail. No,

:12:14. > :12:19.but a timeline of two to three weeks. The market had begun to pause

:12:20. > :12:24.a bit about where was the detail, it was looking more complex in terms of

:12:25. > :12:32.border adjustment trades and taxation and the deregulation with

:12:33. > :12:36.industries. And he ignited the airlines with further deregulation

:12:37. > :12:41.and tearing up lots of red tape around that sector. So that got the

:12:42. > :12:47.market excited again. Pushing it to further highs. It is highlighting

:12:48. > :12:50.the markets. You said, we don't have any details, he just said in two or

:12:51. > :12:57.three weeks I will tell you. Phenomenal. About a tax deal and the

:12:58. > :13:02.markets react. It would be a big deal. If he can do things with

:13:03. > :13:08.deregulation and stimulate the economy. The markets will love it.

:13:09. > :13:12.The attempts to tackle taxation, which is very complex and high in

:13:13. > :13:18.the United States, it has not been easy for any of the administrations,

:13:19. > :13:23.because they haven't had consistency between political parties. Now we

:13:24. > :13:26.have got the Republicans in all the various seats, something could

:13:27. > :13:30.happen. That would be no doubt a corporation tax, you said taxes are

:13:31. > :13:36.high, they have one of the highest in the world around 35%. For

:13:37. > :13:41.individuals it is simplification of the tax code and helping investment.

:13:42. > :13:47.That tax cuts and the corporate boost to the US economy. That is the

:13:48. > :13:50.plan. If he can get the tax cuts through that would be the result.

:13:51. > :13:55.You will be back to do the papers. Still to come: We'll get

:13:56. > :13:58.the inside track on the big economics stories of the week

:13:59. > :14:00.from our Economics You're with Business

:14:01. > :14:06.Live from BBC News. The UK's high street has just

:14:07. > :14:08.experienced its worst January January's like-for-like

:14:09. > :14:15.sales declined by 0.1%, marking the first negative growth

:14:16. > :14:19.in the crucial January discounting period since 2013 and comes hot

:14:20. > :14:24.on the heels of a dismal December. This according to accountancy

:14:25. > :14:26.and business advisory firm BDO who's head of retail,

:14:27. > :14:40.Sophie Michaels joins us now. Great to have you with us, really

:14:41. > :14:46.poor numbers, what is going on here, are we spending less, is it the

:14:47. > :14:52.weather, is it Brexit? That's right, so January followed a poor Christmas

:14:53. > :14:58.sales, which will lead retailers concerned into 2017. But if we break

:14:59. > :15:02.that down, the first two weeks of January we saw positive sales.

:15:03. > :15:06.Showing that the consumer is out there looking for bargains. The

:15:07. > :15:12.third week we saw sales were dented by poor weather. And going to the

:15:13. > :15:17.end of the month, as retailers transitioned from a sale period into

:15:18. > :15:19.full price, the consumers backed off in terms of spending, leaving an

:15:20. > :15:31.over all drop in sales in January. Looking at specific parts of the

:15:32. > :15:36.sales, were there any bright spots? I believe there was an increase in

:15:37. > :15:41.the amount of discounted home where we were buying, and the seasonal

:15:42. > :15:45.increase in online sales. That's right, particularly in that week of

:15:46. > :15:51.poorer weather. The consumer was taking a more comfortable position,

:15:52. > :15:56.shopping from the armchair as opposed to in the high street.

:15:57. > :16:03.Overall, we saw a decline, and homeware saw an increase in sales.

:16:04. > :16:08.But as we move into a period where there is higher expectation of

:16:09. > :16:10.inflation, perhaps that is the area, the discretionary spend, where there

:16:11. > :16:16.is more of a concern that it would be challenged. Thank you for joining

:16:17. > :16:27.us. Let's take a quick look at the tablet. Thunderbirds... I always

:16:28. > :16:37.wanted a model of Thunderbird two. You can get them. Make your own from

:16:38. > :16:40.cardboard. ?10 million worth of grants for the development of

:16:41. > :16:44.spaceports, but not everybody is a fan.

:16:45. > :16:48.You're watching Business Live - our top story:

:16:49. > :16:50.Japan's Prime Minister Abe is in Washington to meet

:16:51. > :17:00.The leaders of two of the world's three biggest economies will discuss

:17:01. > :17:09.Tokyo's trade surplus with the US, jobs, investment annd currencies.

:17:10. > :17:18.Let's like a quick -- let's take a quick look at how the markets are

:17:19. > :17:22.doing. We're waiting to see if anything interesting comes out of

:17:23. > :17:29.that meeting with Shinzo Abe and Donald Trump.

:17:30. > :17:36.Today Greece has to pay back 1.4 billion euros to its creditors.

:17:37. > :17:38.It's the latest instalment on the country's 320 billion

:17:39. > :17:47.And it's just one in what will become an avalanche of payments over

:17:48. > :17:52.We're now joined by our economics editor Kamal Ahmed

:17:53. > :18:00.Thank you for coming in. Looking at the schedule of payments, it's a

:18:01. > :18:06.couple of payments over the next six months, but they really need to get

:18:07. > :18:09.it sorted now before Europe gets distracted by elections. There was a

:18:10. > :18:14.lot of politics in what is going on. This is the sixth year of the Greek

:18:15. > :18:19.debt crisis, which started in 2010. There is real tension between the

:18:20. > :18:29.two main creditors, the IMF and the EU. The IMF is split itself. It is

:18:30. > :18:32.saying that the economy in Greece is growing reasonably, and it still has

:18:33. > :18:38.on the table the idea of debt relief, that some of Greece's bets

:18:39. > :18:44.just will not be paid. The EU, particularly led by Germany, and

:18:45. > :18:47.with elections coming up, do not want debt relief on the table. They

:18:48. > :18:52.want to keep the very strict conditions around debt relief on

:18:53. > :18:56.Greece, that it has to provide this primary surplus of 3.5%, which is

:18:57. > :19:04.very high, and the two are approaching this at loggerheads. We

:19:05. > :19:09.had this in 2012, and again in 2015, when Greece nearly came out of the

:19:10. > :19:12.EU row, nearly defaulted. We have the same pressure now, and with

:19:13. > :19:17.elections in the Netherlands, Germany and France, as you say,

:19:18. > :19:22.there is a real concern in the EU that this controversy will play into

:19:23. > :19:26.those elections. Come the end of the year, the Greeks may not know who

:19:27. > :19:32.they will be dealing with. I have to move on to the next subject, but

:19:33. > :19:35.with the elections... There could be different leaders. Who may not have

:19:36. > :19:40.an appetite at all to give more money. And a different approach. The

:19:41. > :19:44.paper Germany is that if debt relief Greece comes back onto the table, it

:19:45. > :19:49.will be controversial and could damage Angela Merkel's chances of

:19:50. > :19:54.winning the election. We want to talk about China, but I want to ask,

:19:55. > :20:01.briefly, with Brexit already in play, before Brexit we were talking

:20:02. > :20:06.about the Greeks leaving the EU. Do you think that the Greek exit could

:20:07. > :20:10.be easier now? I think it is politically less likely. Germany and

:20:11. > :20:14.the rest of the European leaders do not believe, and even less than they

:20:15. > :20:18.did in 2015, that another country leaving after Britain has decided to

:20:19. > :20:23.leave would be so destructive that I think there will be even more effort

:20:24. > :20:28.to ensure that Greece remained in. Let's talk about China, we had that

:20:29. > :20:42.overnight phone call between Donald Trump and see Jean Ping. -- Xie Jin

:20:43. > :20:46.Ping. There was the controversy over the one China policy. Donald Trump

:20:47. > :20:49.took a call from the leader of Taiwan, which was considered

:20:50. > :20:54.politically insensitive, but they have gone back to the status quo of

:20:55. > :20:58.saying that America believes in the one China policy. Importantly, the

:20:59. > :21:04.temperature has come down between the two largest economies in the

:21:05. > :21:12.world. Donald Trump accused China of raping the American economy. It was

:21:13. > :21:17.described as a cordial phone call, and it eases tension and puts off

:21:18. > :21:23.the notion that America could impose high tariffs on Chinese goods into

:21:24. > :21:31.America. That means that the notion of a trade war, which I think was a

:21:32. > :21:38.possibility, is now less likely. In 30 seconds, the regulations in the

:21:39. > :21:42.US that Donald Trump wants to rip up. Not quite ripped up, but he

:21:43. > :21:48.wants to reform them. Some people say reform is sensible. The big

:21:49. > :21:51.thing is, reform of regulation in America, change of regulation in

:21:52. > :21:55.Europe because Britain is leaving - as soon as regulatory systems

:21:56. > :22:02.change, it leads to financial volatility. Yellow might very

:22:03. > :22:11.succinctly done. You have done that before! -- very succinctly done.

:22:12. > :22:13.The issue of fake news on social media has grabbed

:22:14. > :22:15.headlines since the 2016 US presidential election.

:22:16. > :22:19.But how do fake news sites keep themselves going and make money?

:22:20. > :23:30.Fascinating, wasn't it? You can find out more about fake news on talking

:23:31. > :23:31.business this weekend. The times differ depending where

:23:32. > :23:44.you are and are on your screen now. Sue is back. We are going to look at

:23:45. > :23:51.the papers. Did you find this story? It was Jonathan. Ryan has been

:23:52. > :24:01.googling. You said the average cost to clean up snow in New York, per

:24:02. > :24:07.inch, $1.8 million. I asked what you thought and you said about 5

:24:08. > :24:13.million. I did. There are a lot of streets in New York, and they have

:24:14. > :24:22.to do it overnight. 6500 miles of road. And the budget was $88

:24:23. > :24:27.million. So, if it doesn't snow, do you get to plough that back into

:24:28. > :24:33.schools? Not exactly, because you still have to have the snowploughs

:24:34. > :24:38.and had people on stand-by. Let's move on and look at Australia,

:24:39. > :24:44.Aaron. I saw this today, but I have two sisters in Australia, and one of

:24:45. > :24:51.them said that in the last month, they have had three blackouts. In

:24:52. > :24:56.Sydney, it's unheard of. It is because it is so hot, and everyone

:24:57. > :25:00.wants to cool their homes, their offices, to have cold drinks, and

:25:01. > :25:04.there's not enough power at peak times. It doesn't bode well. I

:25:05. > :25:11.thought we were better than that. You know, there is just not enough

:25:12. > :25:15.supply for the amount of demand. They are asking businesses to shed

:25:16. > :25:21.some load. It is the Chinese, they have bought all our coal. They have

:25:22. > :25:29.no coal left. We have one story left, from the Telegraph. Banks want

:25:30. > :25:34.Labour to tear up -- banks tell France the terror at labour code if

:25:35. > :25:39.it wants Brexit business. Is it shows how long it takes to work

:25:40. > :25:43.through a notice period, as whereas high pay rates, high taxes and

:25:44. > :25:47.possible caps on bonuses. Not a lot of flexibility, which is what banks

:25:48. > :25:57.really want when they are looking to deploy their operations. Hi and who

:25:58. > :26:02.knows who will be elected? -- and who knows who will be elected? That

:26:03. > :26:04.is it from Business Live, there will be more business news throughout the

:26:05. > :26:16.day. Signs of change next week, but for

:26:17. > :26:23.the time being, the weather is stuck in a rut, a cold rut. We are drawing