:00:00. > :00:00.This is Business Live from BBC News with Aaron
:00:00. > :00:11.High security in France after the gun attack in Paris
:00:12. > :00:14.that left one policeman dead and two more seriously wounded.
:00:15. > :00:17.It's a tense time for a nation on the brink of an election.
:00:18. > :00:34.Live from London, that's our top story.
:00:35. > :00:39.Yes - it's a historic moment for France as voters go to the polls
:00:40. > :00:43.on Sunday for its closest election in living memory and one that'll
:00:44. > :00:46.have consequences far beyond its own borders,
:00:47. > :00:52.posing major risks for the European project.
:00:53. > :00:55.Also in the programme, we're going to find out why America thinks
:00:56. > :01:03.cheap steel from Asia is a threat to national security.
:01:04. > :01:07.And we will bring to the latest market action as investors wrap up
:01:08. > :01:09.another trading week. And we'll be getting
:01:10. > :01:12.the inside track on global economic challenges and the threat
:01:13. > :01:13.of protectionism - words of warning from the IMF's
:01:14. > :01:16.boss Christine Lagarde. All this and more with our economics
:01:17. > :01:19.correspondent Andrew Walker. Online shoppers in the UK spend more
:01:20. > :01:23.per household than consumers We start in France,
:01:24. > :01:49.where the shooting in Paris has interrupted final campaigning
:01:50. > :01:51.in what was already being called the most unpredictable Presidential
:01:52. > :01:57.election in living memory. Centrist favourite Emmanuel Macron
:01:58. > :02:02.and far-Right Marine Le Pen look likely to go through after Sunday's
:02:03. > :02:09.vote to a run-off on May 7th. But they are closely
:02:10. > :02:15.followed by conservative Francois Fillon and far-left
:02:16. > :02:17.candidate Jean-Luc Melenchon Socialist Benoit Hamon, though,
:02:18. > :02:20.is being given little chance Security is of course right back
:02:21. > :02:28.at the top of the agenda. But there are other huge issues
:02:29. > :02:40.for financial markets. Number one is the fate
:02:41. > :02:42.of the single currency. Le Pen wants to abandon it
:02:43. > :02:55.and bring back the Franc. Melenchon says it should be reformed
:02:56. > :02:58.and the independence of the European Macron and Fillon are supporters
:02:59. > :03:03.of the euro and want to see So does Melenchon unless, he says,
:03:04. > :03:10.Europe agrees to his reforms. Macron wants a stronger EU
:03:11. > :03:24.and Fillon wants more control The other major issue
:03:25. > :03:28.for the business world - labour reform, and France's famous
:03:29. > :03:30.35-hour working week. Melenchon wants to cut
:03:31. > :03:31.the working week even At the other end of the spectrum,
:03:32. > :03:36.Fillon wants to scrap the 35-hour limit altogether and make it easier
:03:37. > :03:38.to hire and fire. Douglas Webber is a professor
:03:39. > :03:49.of political science at Insead. I have to start by asking you, after
:03:50. > :03:55.last night's shooting, what is the mood light in Paris this morning? I
:03:56. > :03:59.think the mood is rather sombre and of course people are asking what
:04:00. > :04:06.impact if any disc attack last night will have on the election result on
:04:07. > :04:10.Sunday. The financial markets are nervous, they really don't know
:04:11. > :04:14.which way this election is going to go and the different outcomes could
:04:15. > :04:19.have a very different impact on the euro, couldn't they? That is quite
:04:20. > :04:25.correct, you have described very neatly and very well the contrasting
:04:26. > :04:30.positions of the major candidates, two on the radical left and the
:04:31. > :04:37.radical right would certainly risk taking France out of the euro zone,
:04:38. > :04:40.out of the EU. Emmanuel Macron is pro-European and wants to strengthen
:04:41. > :04:45.European integration, Francois Fillon is somewhere between them and
:04:46. > :04:50.Europe. What about the issue of labour reform that Aaron mentioned?
:04:51. > :04:55.Two opposing views from the main candidates, Melenchon wants to cut
:04:56. > :04:59.the working week, Fillon looking to scrap the 35 hour limit. Here in the
:05:00. > :05:04.UK we are always hearing the French are more productive than we are. If
:05:05. > :05:10.France is so productive, why is the working week even an election issue?
:05:11. > :05:17.Well, France has a very high level of unemployment, around 10%, it is
:05:18. > :05:22.twice the size of countries such as the UK, the US and Germany, and the
:05:23. > :05:31.candidates are competing about which policies could best bring down the
:05:32. > :05:34.high-level of mass unemployment, about 3.5 million, 2.5 million
:05:35. > :05:39.French people have been out of work for more than a year, about 20% of
:05:40. > :05:43.young people, and the contrast between the candidates is strong,
:05:44. > :05:47.the two radical candidates want to take France back to pre-euro days,
:05:48. > :05:51.if you'd like, stimulate the economy by increasing public spending,
:05:52. > :05:57.whereas Francois Fillon on the other side of the spectrum is offering a
:05:58. > :06:04.kind of French shock therapy. You might describe him perhaps as a
:06:05. > :06:08.French Margaret Thatcher. I am not sure if you would be able to change
:06:09. > :06:12.all that much because if you were to be elected then he would still have
:06:13. > :06:18.the corruption scandals around his neck and any attempt he would make
:06:19. > :06:22.to radically reform French labour law would certainly provide major
:06:23. > :06:24.protests and strikes. OK, Douglas Webber, thank you very much for your
:06:25. > :06:29.time this morning from Paris. In other news, online shoppers
:06:30. > :06:36.in the UK spend more per household than consumers in any other country,
:06:37. > :06:39.a report says, amid a shift UK households spent the equivalent
:06:40. > :06:48.of $5,900 using payment cards online in 2015 -
:06:49. > :06:51.that's according to the UK This was higher than Norway's
:06:52. > :07:08.$5,400, and the US at $4,500, Uber has extended its internal
:07:09. > :07:14.investigation into sexual harassment The investigation, led by former US
:07:15. > :07:17.Attorney General Eric Holder, was sparked by charges of sexual
:07:18. > :07:20.harassment by a former female engineer as well as charges
:07:21. > :07:22.of a wider cultural The ride-hailing app
:07:23. > :07:25.says an internal report A fall in sales of Barbie dolls has
:07:26. > :07:32.added to a slump at the world's It reported sales down more
:07:33. > :07:38.than 15% in the first three months of the year -
:07:39. > :07:52.the biggest drop in seven years That is a fascinating story because
:07:53. > :07:55.in the first nine months of last year Barbie sales went up because
:07:56. > :08:00.they brought out a whole new range. We will be doing more on this story
:08:01. > :08:04.at the end of the programme so keep an eye on that.
:08:05. > :08:07.President Donald Trump is chipping away at a campaign promise to tackle
:08:08. > :08:14.His latest - a federal investigation into whether dependence on cheap
:08:15. > :08:15.foreign steel is a threat to national security.
:08:16. > :08:25.What more can you tell us? Cheap steel from China has been
:08:26. > :08:30.blamed for many things, including winding down the market price as
:08:31. > :08:35.well as the loss of jobs in the UK, for example, but President Trump has
:08:36. > :08:39.actually invoked a law from more than 50 years ago which allows the
:08:40. > :08:44.US government to restrict imports if it threatens national security, and
:08:45. > :08:48.his argument is that steel is too crucial to the US economy and
:08:49. > :08:53.military that the country cannot be too dependent on foreign countries.
:08:54. > :08:59.As you said, this is one of many election promises that he wants to
:09:00. > :09:05.put America first but it does send a mixed signal to Beijing because just
:09:06. > :09:11.last week when the two Presidents, President Trump and President Shi,
:09:12. > :09:14.met, President Trump avoided labelling China as a currency
:09:15. > :09:18.manipulator, despite his repeated pledge that he would do so during
:09:19. > :09:24.the election campaign, so those of us who brought tensions might not be
:09:25. > :09:26.rising might have to think again. There we go, thank you. I wanted to
:09:27. > :09:30.ask what she bought online, if she ask what she bought online, if she
:09:31. > :09:35.shops online. Let's stay with the markets.
:09:36. > :09:39.That is the Dow from yesterday but mostly on a positive note, shrugging
:09:40. > :09:45.off the US trade report into cheap imported steel, but investors with
:09:46. > :09:52.their eyes on geopolitical concerns, quite a few of them, in several
:09:53. > :10:01.corners of the world. If we look at Europe, we expected it would open
:10:02. > :10:05.more muted so no surprises there. The French election is a focus,
:10:06. > :10:12.dominating a lot of the European markets. The euro remaining on edge,
:10:13. > :10:15.that is quite volatile, so again all eyes on the first round of
:10:16. > :10:28.presidential elections on Sunday in France. What does the US have in
:10:29. > :10:30.store? Here is similar insane. -- here is Samira Hussain.
:10:31. > :10:32.A few companies will be reporting earnings on Friday,
:10:33. > :10:33.including General Electric, Honeywell and Schlumberger -
:10:34. > :10:35.the world's number one oilfield services provider.
:10:36. > :10:38.Now, although the price of oil is back up, the company
:10:39. > :10:40.was hurt in the last quarter because of the cost associated
:10:41. > :10:42.with reactivating idled rigs and equipment.
:10:43. > :10:44.And the stabilising of oil prices will help Honeywell long-term,
:10:45. > :10:47.but earnings for this quarter will suffer because of some
:10:48. > :10:50.Investors in General Electric will be looking for the company
:10:51. > :10:53.to cut costs and lift profits in order to hit targets
:10:54. > :10:59.Finally, happening in Washington, will finance leaders will be
:11:00. > :11:01.gathering for the spring meetings of the International Monetary Fund
:11:02. > :11:15.Trade protectionist policies will likely be a major team.
:11:16. > :11:17.Joining us is Jane Sydenham, Investment Director,
:11:18. > :11:25.Thank you for coming in, let's look at the market in context of the
:11:26. > :11:30.French presidential elections. The euro could be vulnerable, couldn't
:11:31. > :11:34.it? It could, stock markets have been relatively stable, where we
:11:35. > :11:39.bond markets, said the yield on bond markets, said the yield on
:11:40. > :11:42.French government bonds have risen, so people are a bit nervous... So
:11:43. > :11:49.the return on investment has gone up? Yes. But if we saw a second
:11:50. > :11:53.round run-off between Melenchon and le Pen, the markets would be worried
:11:54. > :11:57.because the implication is possibly an exit from the eurozone. At the
:11:58. > :12:02.moment the polls are saying around 11% probability of that and you
:12:03. > :12:07.think, well, that seems rather low, but go back to last year, the same
:12:08. > :12:13.poll said 30% probability of Donald Trump winning at the same kind of
:12:14. > :12:17.stage. -- is 13% probability. One thing we have learned is that we do
:12:18. > :12:19.not listen to the polls any more! Let's talk about Tesla, voluntary
:12:20. > :12:38.X and Model S, they say only 2% of global recall of the
:12:39. > :12:42.X and Model S, they say only 2% of cars are struggling with this
:12:43. > :12:46.problem but they are recalling them all voluntarily. Yes, they seem to
:12:47. > :12:50.be aware of customer service, recalling 53,000 cards is quite a
:12:51. > :12:54.task and you can argue it is the way to handle customer service when you
:12:55. > :12:57.think about what happened with United airlines recently, they will
:12:58. > :13:03.preserve their brand value by doing that. Even some of the big recall is
:13:04. > :13:06.previously from car companies, like Toyota, some of them have mishandled
:13:07. > :13:11.the recall is and they have been dented. Some of them have been quite
:13:12. > :13:16.slow and have waited until problems have arisen. Tesla are trying to be
:13:17. > :13:22.on the front foot, get out there and do this. We will have the bag at the
:13:23. > :13:26.end of the programme, have a think about what you spend online!
:13:27. > :13:28.Still to come, riding the economic cycle.
:13:29. > :13:31.The IMF says global growth is finally moving up a gear -
:13:32. > :13:35.we'll find out what issues will be on the agenda as the world's finance
:13:36. > :13:53.You are with Business Live from BBC News.
:13:54. > :13:58.Tomorrow marks the 10th global annual Record Store Day,
:13:59. > :14:00.the event that celebrates the culture of independent
:14:01. > :14:08.Hundreds of record stores around the UK will be holding parties
:14:09. > :14:18.There are now over 380 independent record shops in the UK.
:14:19. > :14:23.And vinyl sales are worth ?65.6 million, up over 5000%,
:14:24. > :14:26.over the last ten years, representing 14% of total spend
:14:27. > :14:33.Let's get more with Jon Tolley, who runs Banquet Records.
:14:34. > :14:42.That is quite a turnaround! What do you think has prompted it? Might
:14:43. > :14:46.immediately is it is just a reply to how much MP3s and streaming is our
:14:47. > :14:49.big disposable, and if you really love something you want to own it
:14:50. > :14:54.and keep it and have it for ever, make it an emotional experience.
:14:55. > :14:58.Have we reached a balance between the digital music and physical
:14:59. > :15:02.music, so downloading and buying albums? I don't think they are in
:15:03. > :15:07.competition with each other, I download and stream but also want to
:15:08. > :15:10.buy CDs and records, there is another space in the market for all
:15:11. > :15:12.a bit but we are seeing that vinyl is on the up for the reasons I
:15:13. > :15:20.mentioned. I am being told in my ear that you
:15:21. > :15:27.have some records in your hand. What are they, and what is your
:15:28. > :15:30.favourite? I have my favourites here, and all-time favourite of mine
:15:31. > :15:34.that I only got on the CD when it first came out. It is rereleased
:15:35. > :15:45.with special coloured vinyl. Here is The Cute, acoustic kits, acoustic
:15:46. > :15:55.versions of the classics you have heard from The Cure. And Toto,
:15:56. > :15:59.Africa, a continent shaped disc. I know you said it was not in
:16:00. > :16:04.competition, but which is most affordable? This is not comparable.
:16:05. > :16:08.That is my point. It is not just about price, it is not about the
:16:09. > :16:15.cheapest option. You cannot compare a beautiful piece of art, like a
:16:16. > :16:20.record, with a stream or MP3. A new vinyl album would be ?16 or ?18. We
:16:21. > :16:29.will have to leave it there. Thank you very much for your time.
:16:30. > :16:32.Hello! I didn't think I was in vision, there.
:16:33. > :16:34.You're watching Business Live - our top story...
:16:35. > :16:36.France prepares for the closest election in living memory,
:16:37. > :16:40.posing major risks for the Euro and the EU itself.
:16:41. > :16:47.A quick look at how markets are faring...
:16:48. > :17:00.It is all about France and the presidential elections. You can see
:17:01. > :17:05.the FTSE is up, as is the market in France.
:17:06. > :17:12.We are waiting to see what will happen. Far left, far right, that is
:17:13. > :17:13.my prediction. It is going to shake up the markets. Like Trump. There
:17:14. > :17:15.you go. This week, the IMF Spring meetings
:17:16. > :17:19.in Washington have us clues The IMF's boss Christine
:17:20. > :17:22.Lagarde warned about Of course the French economy
:17:23. > :17:28.is in the headlines as voters head to the polls at the weekend,
:17:29. > :17:30.but there a political Let's get more with our economics
:17:31. > :17:43.correspondent Andrew Walker. Thanks for joining us. What did the
:17:44. > :17:47.IMF tell us? In terms of their general assessment of the shape of
:17:48. > :17:50.the global economy, the tone is a lot more positive than I have heard
:17:51. > :17:56.for several years, perhaps going back to the financial crisis. It
:17:57. > :18:00.wasn't long ago that Christine Lagarde, the IMF managing director,
:18:01. > :18:03.coined the phrase the new mediocre. She was worried we were in for a
:18:04. > :18:08.period of protracted sluggish performance, with little prospect of
:18:09. > :18:14.improvement of living standards. The tone has changed quite differently.
:18:15. > :18:19.The report earlier this week was called Gaining Momentum. There was a
:18:20. > :18:23.question mark on the end of that title, I have to admit. But they do
:18:24. > :18:27.think something has possibly changed in the last six months or so. The
:18:28. > :18:33.chief economist was saying that maybe we are at a turning point.
:18:34. > :18:37.There are risks, of course. But do we even care about the IMF!? They
:18:38. > :18:42.are constantly changing. They say one thing, they said Brexit will be
:18:43. > :18:45.the worst thing for the UK, the UK economy is going to come out. Then
:18:46. > :18:48.they go, actually, it is doing better than we thought. On the UK
:18:49. > :18:53.economy, they described two different scenarios. One was
:18:54. > :19:01.recession, one was a significant slowdown. I think they would argue
:19:02. > :19:08.that what we saw was slightly slower performance. In the forecast, we are
:19:09. > :19:13.one of the fastest-growing economies in the G20? Yes, but slower than the
:19:14. > :19:17.IMF was forecasting a year ago. What do we do with these forecasts? I
:19:18. > :19:27.don't understand, why should we care about them? Do institutions... Well,
:19:28. > :19:32.in a way, it is a fair question. The fact is, we do need to have some
:19:33. > :19:36.idea of what we are expecting in the coming years. Is the IMF any worse
:19:37. > :19:42.than anybody else? I would say absolutely not. And protectionism,
:19:43. > :19:47.right? That is the big worry. We are not seen that, even though we
:19:48. > :19:50.thought with Trump... The Trump administration has certainly been
:19:51. > :19:54.making a lot of noise is. In terms of concrete action, the things that
:19:55. > :19:58.people like the IMF were concerned about have not happened. What we had
:19:59. > :20:01.last night, and you have already been talking about this review of
:20:02. > :20:07.steel, the way in which it might bear on security issues, clearly
:20:08. > :20:11.there is the possibility of the end of out of measures to restrict steel
:20:12. > :20:15.imports. I think the IMF would be worried about that. So far, all they
:20:16. > :20:20.are doing, all President Trump has called for, is a review of the
:20:21. > :20:24.situation. There is certainly nothing in the WTO rules, which I
:20:25. > :20:29.happen to have brought with me. Your holiday reading? Yes, which prevents
:20:30. > :20:41.them from doing anything. These are the 500 pages of the basics of the
:20:42. > :20:51.rule book. HE SNORES. That is the core of it. If you want to get
:20:52. > :20:57.across it... The results of the Euro negotiations. Their coffee stains
:20:58. > :21:01.you do read is on holiday? I would not be allowed to take it on holiday
:21:02. > :21:09.with me. Donald Trump, overnight, about steel, at the minute it is
:21:10. > :21:14.just about a review. Can he do anything about it? Under US
:21:15. > :21:15.legislation committee can. World Trade Organisation rules,
:21:16. > :21:21.restricting imports beyond what you have committed to in WTO
:21:22. > :21:25.negotiations is generally inconsistent with the rules. There
:21:26. > :21:29.are some exceptions on national security issues in this book. I
:21:30. > :21:32.emphasise I am not a lawyer. But having read them, I would be quite
:21:33. > :21:39.surprised if they are much use to President Trump, if he wanted to
:21:40. > :21:43.impose restrictions. If he did, you might face action within the WTO and
:21:44. > :21:46.the possibility of retaliation from trade partners. Having said that, if
:21:47. > :21:50.he wanted to do it, there is no question he could. It is a question
:21:51. > :21:52.of whether he would be able to pay that international trade price for
:21:53. > :21:57.it. Thank you, enjoy your reading! Let's go to Shanghai,
:21:58. > :21:59.China now where the annual It's a huge event -
:22:00. > :22:03.China has been the world's top car market for almost a decade and well
:22:04. > :22:06.over a thousand new But Volkswagen told Robin Brant that
:22:07. > :22:16.combustion engines are not dead. We just saw the Cedric
:22:17. > :22:19.unveiled to Shanghai. A man talked about air
:22:20. > :22:26.purifiers inside the car. I live here with my three children,
:22:27. > :22:30.there are plenty of cars in China, lots of them yours, the place
:22:31. > :22:32.is smog hit. Isn't the problem that there are too
:22:33. > :22:38.many cars in this country? The pollution is a big problem,
:22:39. > :22:44.it also has climatic reasons. In China, we have some problematic
:22:45. > :22:47.areas. We have one of the most modern car
:22:48. > :22:52.fleets in the world. The government is really
:22:53. > :22:55.driving down pollution. It's a really big city, the public
:22:56. > :22:58.transportation can't cope. What we have to do is make our cars
:22:59. > :23:03.more environmentally friendly, and electric cars are,
:23:04. > :23:06.it looks like, the chosen option for the local authorities and it
:23:07. > :23:11.will be also by the customers. Even though it is a huge market,
:23:12. > :23:18.everyone here wants an SUV. I mean, in terms of sales,
:23:19. > :23:21.they are going through the roof. People just love the riding
:23:22. > :23:26.height of these vehicles, So we have a trend
:23:27. > :23:35.towards SUVs worldwide, Now was the first month, I think,
:23:36. > :23:58.that SUVs with the most We are going to look at the papers.
:23:59. > :24:03.We start with the UK spending more money online shopping than any other
:24:04. > :24:06.country in the world. Thank you for your tweets. Ryan says I buy most
:24:07. > :24:12.stuff online, something like clothes, I would go into the store.
:24:13. > :24:22.He uses Amazon Prime. Don't we all? These figures don't even include the
:24:23. > :24:30.spend on Amazon. That is even more. Another says I buy my model trains
:24:31. > :24:38.online. This is from Johan, I buy books, electronics and appliances.
:24:39. > :24:43.What do you buy? Cat food! Do you have cats? Can I just checked? You
:24:44. > :24:51.can buy a kind of cat food online you cannot get anywhere else. Why
:24:52. > :24:56.you buying more than anywhere else? Maybe we do not like sitting in
:24:57. > :25:00.queues, in car parks, crowds. It has definitely taken hold. Culturally,
:25:01. > :25:09.it has taken hold. The convenience is a premium. Let's talk about
:25:10. > :25:13.Mattel. Barbie sales were up, they have had a dismal performance? The
:25:14. > :25:20.introduction of more varieties, tall, curvy, petite, it seemed to
:25:21. > :25:23.work. But the battle with screen -based toys for children, they seem
:25:24. > :25:31.to be struggling. They lost a contract to Hasbro to make Disney
:25:32. > :25:35.princesses. If you think about the popularity of the dolls from Frozen,
:25:36. > :25:39.Christmas time, that is what my nieces want. Sales related to films
:25:40. > :25:45.are so important. Losing anything like that will have a huge impact.
:25:46. > :25:50.Then there is stock overhang, and life gets more difficult. Thank you
:25:51. > :25:56.for joining us. Aaron, please do not wind in your online spending. Are
:25:57. > :26:04.you supporting the economy? I've been buying razor blades online. You
:26:05. > :26:09.can get anything. Moisturiser. When did you last go to a shop? I'm not
:26:10. > :26:12.saying anything. Things have been fairly quiet of late, that is what
:26:13. > :26:14.we take into the weekend.