:00:00. > :00:08.This is Business Live from BBC News with Rachel Horne
:00:09. > :00:11.The chief executive of the world's second
:00:12. > :00:13.largest investment bank - Goldman Sachs - has warned
:00:14. > :00:15.that London will stall because of the risks
:00:16. > :00:37.Live from London, that's our top story on Friday 5th May.
:00:38. > :00:41.Yep, the big boss of one of the world's largest banks,
:00:42. > :00:43.Goldman Sachs, tells the BBC about his preparations
:00:44. > :00:46.for a world after Brexit - that's coming up in an exclusive
:00:47. > :00:59.A new rival to Airbus and Boeing takes to the skies.
:01:00. > :01:01.China's first home-grown C919 passenger jet has taken
:01:02. > :01:03.off on its maiden test flight in Shanghai.
:01:04. > :01:11.Europe is open, it's all about oil, elections and US jobs figures.
:01:12. > :01:14.It's been an election campaign that's turned French
:01:15. > :01:17.politics upside down - now is the last chance for the two
:01:18. > :01:19.Presidential candidates to appeal for voters before the polls
:01:20. > :01:25.We'll get the inside track on the last week of the contest
:01:26. > :01:34.and ask how much the winner can achieve when they get into office.
:01:35. > :01:40.No specific question today. Just letters know what you think of the
:01:41. > :01:42.programme. Be nice! The head of the American
:01:43. > :01:52.investment bank Goldman Sachs, has warned that Britain's financial
:01:53. > :01:55.centre - the City of London - will stall when the country
:01:56. > :02:03.leaves the European Union. Lloyd Blankfein told the BBC
:02:04. > :02:06.that the bank had contingency plans to move staff to mainland Europe,
:02:07. > :02:08.depending on the outcome At the moment Goldman Sachs employ
:02:09. > :02:14.6,500 people here in the UK. The bank is due to move
:02:15. > :02:17.into a new premises in 2019 as it tries to bring all its London staff
:02:18. > :02:20.into the same building The stakes It has around 34,000 staff
:02:21. > :02:29.worldwide. As one of the world's most
:02:30. > :02:31.successful investment banks it made a $7.4 billion profit last year
:02:32. > :02:34.with the UK operation Our economics editor
:02:35. > :02:54.Kamal Ahmed is with me. Good to see you. Let's start. There
:02:55. > :03:00.he is. I will go of script, this is his first interview in the UK for
:03:01. > :03:07.years? A number of years. Lloyd Blankfein used the words London
:03:08. > :03:12.could stall. Will stall. Will stall, sorry. How strong is that from the
:03:13. > :03:18.people you know and we'll talk to? It is a strong warning, it is his
:03:19. > :03:23.most substantial take on the risks of Brexit, and not just to the
:03:24. > :03:27.United Kingdom as Britain leads the EU, but also to the European Union.
:03:28. > :03:31.He does not really want to talk about his own profits and his own
:03:32. > :03:35.bank, he knows nobody really cares about Goldman Sachs and the billions
:03:36. > :03:41.of dollars they make every year, but he talks about the businesses that
:03:42. > :03:45.use the banks to raise money to invest, and governments that use the
:03:46. > :03:48.banks to raise money for the debts they are carrying. He says if there
:03:49. > :03:57.is a poor deal, it means the system of funding becomes less efficient
:03:58. > :04:02.and less secure. I asked him if the UK was less attractive for banks
:04:03. > :04:05.like Goldmans and others outside the European Union and the single
:04:06. > :04:10.market. A lot of people elect to have their
:04:11. > :04:22.European business concentrated in a single place.
:04:23. > :04:27.for the biggest economy in the world to concentrate would be the UK -
:04:28. > :04:29.the culture, the language, the special relationship,
:04:30. > :04:33.If you cannot benefit from access to the EU from the UK,
:04:34. > :04:36.and nobody knows what those rules and determinations will be,
:04:37. > :04:39.then the risk is there will be some adjustment that will cause some
:04:40. > :04:41.people to have a smaller footprint in the UK.
:04:42. > :04:49.He talks about possibly having to move some people, they play 6500 in
:04:50. > :04:55.the UK, did he give any indication as to how many that means? They are
:04:56. > :05:00.being incredibly careful. Britain does not officially leave the EU
:05:01. > :05:03.until 2019, Lloyd Blankfein said if there was not an implementation
:05:04. > :05:08.period of at least two years they might have to move more people than
:05:09. > :05:13.presently. No numbers on that yet but he said he had had discussions,
:05:14. > :05:17.or the bank had, in Frankfurt, Dublin and other centres where they
:05:18. > :05:24.could move to. I pushed him on how far they were on planning to move
:05:25. > :05:30.jobs away from the UK. Without knowing how things will turn
:05:31. > :05:34.out, we have to plan for a number of contingencies, and our hope is that
:05:35. > :05:39.we don't have to implement anything until we know what we have to
:05:40. > :05:45.implement. But if there is no period of time to implement whatever
:05:46. > :05:48.changes are brought about in negotiations, we might have to do
:05:49. > :05:55.things prematurely and a range of things a precaution.
:05:56. > :06:00.Did he mention any other place around Europe that could fill the
:06:01. > :06:05.shoes of London? If you look at places like Frankfurt and Dublin,
:06:06. > :06:09.where they have operations already, they have operations across Europe,
:06:10. > :06:14.in Lloyd Blankfein's words we do not have the legal and regulatory heft
:06:15. > :06:18.that London has. London is a global financial centre and I think,
:06:19. > :06:23.frankly, the big winner if London loses some of our financial services
:06:24. > :06:27.trading into Europe, will actually be New York. Lots of people might
:06:28. > :06:31.move to New York rather than on to continental Europe, because they do
:06:32. > :06:34.not have the breadth. The big message was we want to stay
:06:35. > :06:38.committed to London and Europe, it is better for both sides if the
:06:39. > :06:43.trade deal between Britain and the EU is as close to what the single
:06:44. > :06:46.market provides that the moment. Cool. Kamal Ahmed, thank you. Much
:06:47. > :06:48.appreciated. A great weekend. Let's take a look at some of
:06:49. > :06:52.the other stories making the news. The oil price has fallen
:06:53. > :06:55.to a five-month low as investor concerns re-surface
:06:56. > :06:56.about a worldwide glut. During Friday trading in Asia,
:06:57. > :06:58.Brent crude dropped to just It means the gains made since last
:06:59. > :07:03.year's supply cut by the influential Opec group of oil producers have
:07:04. > :07:10.been largely wiped out. The owners of British Airways
:07:11. > :07:12.and Iberia - IAG - has reported better than expected
:07:13. > :07:14.operating profit for the first three months of this year
:07:15. > :07:17.of almost $187 million. That was before one-off items
:07:18. > :07:24.and amounted to what the chief executive Willie Walsh said
:07:25. > :07:42.was a record performance US airline Delta has apologised and
:07:43. > :07:46.offered compensation to a family who say they were kicked off a flight
:07:47. > :07:52.for refusing to give up a child's seat. Individual of an incident, a
:07:53. > :07:56.crew member is film is warning the parents that if they do not get off
:07:57. > :07:59.they will be committing a federal offence, they will go to jail and
:08:00. > :08:04.their children will be taken into foster care. It comes after the
:08:05. > :08:06.incident last month were a passenger was injured after being taken off a
:08:07. > :08:12.flight. This is my favourite it is all our
:08:13. > :08:14.lines! I would love a weekly show about our lines!
:08:15. > :08:17.Shares in the Australian airline Qantas have hit a nine year high
:08:18. > :08:20.after it said it expected profits for the current financial year to be
:08:21. > :08:25.In the year to the end of June expects to make $1 billion as demand
:08:26. > :08:38.It is the flying kangaroo. Guess what, we have more aye lines. I will
:08:39. > :08:45.start and then I will do is the question. -- lets you ask the
:08:46. > :08:45.questions. China's first home made big
:08:46. > :08:47.commercial jet has just landed safely after making
:08:48. > :08:49.its maiden flight. The plane has been almost ten
:08:50. > :08:53.years in the making. It is designed to challenge
:08:54. > :09:00.Airbus and Boeing in Robin, good to see you. We will talk
:09:01. > :09:04.about what this could mean for Boeing and Airbus, but nearly ten
:09:05. > :09:12.years in the making, this is a big deal in China? Yes, this is a moment
:09:13. > :09:17.of national pride. It is a moment for China to prove its technical
:09:18. > :09:22.proficiency to people here and the outside world. It is politically
:09:23. > :09:26.important because China's leader, President Xi Jingping, has called
:09:27. > :09:28.for a growing domestic aviation industry that he says can reflect
:09:29. > :09:34.the new capabilities of the world's the new capabilities of the world's
:09:35. > :09:39.number two economy. China is focusing on strategic industries in
:09:40. > :09:42.its effort to show technical proficiency and expand production
:09:43. > :09:46.abroad. Part of that is the nuclear and is to, part of that is
:09:47. > :09:53.high-speed rail, aviation is one of those. This particular jet was first
:09:54. > :09:56.announced in 2008, we got the Maytin take-off and a safe landing in
:09:57. > :10:02.Shanghai today, about nine minutes ago. There will be sighs of relief.
:10:03. > :10:11.The key thing is to develop it and sell it not just in China where, to
:10:12. > :10:15.be honest, domestic airlines are very much on board, there are 570
:10:16. > :10:21.orders and options, but how will they do abroad? Make no mistake,
:10:22. > :10:25.selling domestically is important because the Chinese domestic
:10:26. > :10:31.aviation markets has the potential to be huge. You have pretty much
:10:32. > :10:36.answered me, whether abroad or not it is one of the fastest-growing
:10:37. > :10:42.aviation markets in the world. The country builds an airport what seems
:10:43. > :10:46.like every year or two. In China alone, Abbas and Boeing looked
:10:47. > :10:54.towards China for their future order books. This plane and its success
:10:55. > :10:57.could dent those companies? Boeing has an assembly plant due to open in
:10:58. > :11:02.Beijing in the North next year, I think. They are trying to move on to
:11:03. > :11:07.the domestic market. Every time we fly in this country it is an Airbus
:11:08. > :11:13.Ora Boeing, similar to everyone around the world. This is an effort
:11:14. > :11:17.to show that China has a burgeoning industry and can take on
:11:18. > :11:27.particularly those were courses, the 737 and the A320 made by Abbas. --
:11:28. > :11:32.take on those workhorses. There are about 15 foreign suppliers on board,
:11:33. > :11:35.the engines and systems are made by foreign suppliers. Getting
:11:36. > :11:40.international safety approval, there have been issues with aeroplanes
:11:41. > :11:44.made by this maker and that will be huge test of international
:11:45. > :11:47.acceptance, which is a crucial part of art for China. Thank you.
:11:48. > :11:50.Stock markets on the way down today - a plunge in oil prices pulling
:11:51. > :11:53.down energy companies right around the worls and we'll be talking more
:11:54. > :11:57.about that with our markets guest Maike Currie in a moment.
:11:58. > :12:00.Also investors looking ahead to US jobs figures due out later today.
:12:01. > :12:13.It is children stay. ... Children's day. In Europe, markets are down.
:12:14. > :12:15.Investors have seen a good run of company results -
:12:16. > :12:18.almost half of European companies have reported their earnings so far
:12:19. > :12:20.with 74 percent beating analyst expectations and 6% meeting them.
:12:21. > :12:26.Samira Hussain has the details about what's ahead on Wall Street.
:12:27. > :12:35.If it's the first Friday of a new month it can only mean one thing for
:12:36. > :12:39.business and economic news from America, non-farm payrolls. The
:12:40. > :12:44.employment rate is expected to have risen slightly to 4.6%, with
:12:45. > :12:50.analysts expecting the US economy will have added around 185,000 jobs.
:12:51. > :12:55.Investors will be laser focused on the jobs report and looking for
:12:56. > :12:59.clues on the US Federal Reserve's interest-rate hike trajectory
:13:00. > :13:03.through the end of the year. In earnings news, the conglomerate run
:13:04. > :13:08.by billionaire Warren Buffett will be reporting. The results of
:13:09. > :13:13.Berkshire Hathaway reduce the date -- announced the day before its
:13:14. > :13:17.annual shareholder meeting. As of market close on Thursday, one share
:13:18. > :13:23.in the Oracle of Omaha's company will cost you about $249,540.
:13:24. > :13:28.There you go. Joining us is Maike Currie,
:13:29. > :13:38.investment director for personal A familiar face, good to have the
:13:39. > :13:42.withers. The black stuff, oil, around $47 a barrel. -- good to have
:13:43. > :13:48.you with us. Google will fundamentally is a case of supply
:13:49. > :13:56.and demand. As soon as Opec brings in production cuts, the US shale
:13:57. > :14:00.producers romper production and there are always the other
:14:01. > :14:04.prejudices, Russia. They are producing at record levels.
:14:05. > :14:10.OnDemand, a year ago we saw the oil price languishing in the first
:14:11. > :14:13.quarter of 2016 at around $30 a barrel, there was global growth
:14:14. > :14:18.slowing, concerns around China, lots of that has disappeared so it is
:14:19. > :14:23.constantly the balance between demand and supply. We had results
:14:24. > :14:28.from BP and Royal Dutch Shell, good results, but now the oil price is
:14:29. > :14:34.starting to slip, what impact could ban have? It is cast a shadow over
:14:35. > :14:38.those really good results. Shell reported a 136% rise in profits,
:14:39. > :14:44.share prices up over 30%, but they cautioned times would be tough and
:14:45. > :14:52.cost-cutting is key. We want the oil price to stay between $50 and $55,
:14:53. > :14:55.$60 a barrel, that is the golden locks scenario where oil is that
:14:56. > :14:58.A-level but it is low enough that global growth can continue but high
:14:59. > :15:03.enough that the oil producers can make money. What about Opec, people
:15:04. > :15:07.seem to be losing faith in them? There is a meeting on the 25th of
:15:08. > :15:10.the month, there is an idea that they will cut and people go, are
:15:11. > :15:19.you? Have they almost lost power? Opec has been disciplined in pushing
:15:20. > :15:27.through those cuts, but the market is losing faith. They have been
:15:28. > :15:34.resilient to the fall in the oil price and nimble and of course
:15:35. > :15:35.Russia... Indeed. You are going to come back and we are going to go
:15:36. > :15:37.through the papers. Still to come, we'll
:15:38. > :15:38.get the inside track on the French Presidential
:15:39. > :15:40.election before voting gets You're with Business
:15:41. > :15:51.Live from BBC News. International Airlines Group,
:15:52. > :15:54.which includes British Airways and Iberia, has posted a record
:15:55. > :15:56.first-quarter performance in what is usually the weakest part
:15:57. > :16:02.of the year seeing a profit of just Our business Correspondent Theo
:16:03. > :16:18.Leggett joins us now. Not only is he a redhead, but is
:16:19. > :16:26.also a bit of an aviation that, like me. You have to take your hat off in
:16:27. > :16:33.some ways in terms of making money. They have done a job in a
:16:34. > :16:41.three-month period, so what's behind it? Lower oil? Fuel prices is
:16:42. > :16:46.certainly part of it. It went down about 10%. There's also a resurgence
:16:47. > :16:50.in confidence. The industry has been under the cosh lately with the
:16:51. > :16:54.political uncertainties in the case of International Airlines Group,
:16:55. > :16:56.including Rex it's because BA is a large part of its business but
:16:57. > :17:00.there's also been terrorism fears and that sort of things which have
:17:01. > :17:08.been weighing down on passenger numbers. These numbers this morning
:17:09. > :17:11.are pretty good. Operating profit, 170 million euros, up from 155
:17:12. > :17:18.million from the same period last year. These are positive figures.
:17:19. > :17:25.There are some downsides. The effect of the weak pound, the get their
:17:26. > :17:33.profit in euros, a lot from British Airways. The currency difference, it
:17:34. > :17:37.has cost the group as a whole about 32 million euros. Passenger
:17:38. > :17:40.revenues, also decreased, down by 4.2% although the company said it's
:17:41. > :17:46.partly due to the timing of Easter holidays which was in March last
:17:47. > :17:52.year. This year it was in April. The net profit figure was down by
:17:53. > :17:56.non-operating costs, basically re-evaluating derivative contracts
:17:57. > :18:01.which means a profit after tax was down by 75% but that's an accounting
:18:02. > :18:08.gesture. The markets like what they see and their profits are up more
:18:09. > :18:11.than 4% this morning. Good on you. You can talk, can't you? I had other
:18:12. > :18:20.questions but you have covered it all. Good on you. We have our
:18:21. > :18:25.business life page. When the airline is going to learn about PR and
:18:26. > :18:31.customer service? Picking on a two-year-old! OK.
:18:32. > :18:40.The chief executive of the world's second largest investment bank
:18:41. > :18:43.Goldman Sachs has warned that London will stall because of the risks
:18:44. > :18:52.A quick look at how markets are faring.
:18:53. > :19:01.We can see they are all down and the big story is oil, it's pulling down
:19:02. > :19:05.energy stocks and impacting across the world.
:19:06. > :19:07.The two candidates battling for the French presidency
:19:08. > :19:09.are spending their last day on the campaign trail
:19:10. > :19:14.The frontrunner, Emmanuel Macron, is in the southern city of Rodez.
:19:15. > :19:18.His rival, Marine Le Pen, is campaigning in northern France.
:19:19. > :19:21.And the state of the economy has been a key concern
:19:22. > :19:29.Emmanuel Macron wants spending cuts of 60 billion euros.
:19:30. > :19:35.That's $66 billion over five years with a 50 billion euro stimulus
:19:36. > :19:46.He also wants to lower taxes and extend the welfare state.
:19:47. > :19:49.Marine Le Pen has been very critical of austerity.
:19:50. > :19:51.She has pledged to cut taxes for households and increase welfare
:19:52. > :19:59.She also argues quitting the Euro would give France the flexbility
:20:00. > :20:10.The French unemployment rate is stubbornly high at 10%.
:20:11. > :20:12.Emmanuel Macron wants to invest in training and apprenticeships,
:20:13. > :20:20.He also wants flexibility on overtime and the
:20:21. > :20:29.On the other hand Marine Le Pen wants to maintain the 35-hour week,
:20:30. > :20:40.make overtime tax-free and lower the retirement age from 62 to 60.
:20:41. > :20:44.They want to lower it. Everybody else's raising it.
:20:45. > :20:46.Dr Ittie Lotem from the University of Westminster here in London
:20:47. > :20:49.is an expert on France and joins us now.
:20:50. > :20:55.Great to have you with us. Can I pick up on one thing straightaway?
:20:56. > :21:01.Both want to increase the welfare state. France has a deficit problem,
:21:02. > :21:07.meaning they spend more than it earns in taxes. They want to
:21:08. > :21:15.increase it? France can't afford it, can it? But as a whole different
:21:16. > :21:22.question but one of the things, the big problems in France is how to
:21:23. > :21:28.actually make the economy work, how to this is a take the economic model
:21:29. > :21:31.whilst retaining some kind of welfare level comfort. One of the
:21:32. > :21:37.things of course people in France are very proud of is the French
:21:38. > :21:42.model which has come through after the 2008 crisis, when actually
:21:43. > :21:46.poverty levels have remained extremely low compared to what's
:21:47. > :21:49.happening in the UK and the USA, so this is something France is aware of
:21:50. > :21:56.in terms of maintaining the welfare state. Maintain it, but it doesn't
:21:57. > :21:59.mean it works. They can't afford it. Their poverty levels are there
:22:00. > :22:01.because the government is throwing because the government is throwing
:22:02. > :22:09.more money than they actually earn at its. That's not sustainable. Is
:22:10. > :22:12.it? The question of sustainability in France always comes down to
:22:13. > :22:16.unemployment. Just trying to get unemployment down, trying to get
:22:17. > :22:21.enough people into the labour market, into a working cycle in
:22:22. > :22:25.order to maintain the welfare state. Of course, one of the biggest
:22:26. > :22:30.problems in France is unemployment, which has remained stubbornly high
:22:31. > :22:35.at around 10% for the last 40 years. It is the big building stumbling
:22:36. > :22:41.whatever they say, the big problem whatever they say, the big problem
:22:42. > :22:45.is how to get unemployment down. Being realistic, these are two very
:22:46. > :22:50.different candidate but whoever gets elected they got to try to get these
:22:51. > :22:54.changes through the legislative into law. What are the chances of that
:22:55. > :23:04.happening? We have elections coming up in June. Well, your guess is as
:23:05. > :23:11.good as mine. One of the issues here is of course the French election
:23:12. > :23:14.system. One will be elected as president, probably Emmanuel Macron
:23:15. > :23:18.looking at the polls right now, but that doesn't mean they'll have a
:23:19. > :23:22.working majority. They will have to come through from the legislative
:23:23. > :23:29.elections in June where any kind of majority is still up in the air. OK,
:23:30. > :23:32.so we will know the president on Sunday, who is the President of
:23:33. > :23:37.France but we wait until June to see if they can do anything. If they can
:23:38. > :23:39.make any reforms, OK. An absolute pleasure to have you with us. Have a
:23:40. > :23:43.great weekend. In a moment we'll take a look
:23:44. > :23:46.through the Business Pages but first here's a quick reminder of how
:23:47. > :23:52.to get in touch with us. The business life pages where you
:23:53. > :23:56.can stay ahead on the breaking business news and keep you
:23:57. > :24:00.up-to-date with the latest details between insight and analysis from
:24:01. > :24:03.the BBC's team of editors around the world and we want to hear from you.
:24:04. > :24:16.Get involved on the business life website. And on Twitter. And on
:24:17. > :24:29.Facebook. Business live on TV and online whenever you need to know. We
:24:30. > :24:32.have a story from a Financial Times about Obamacare. Is more than 100
:24:33. > :24:35.days since his election and it looks like he's finally starting to
:24:36. > :24:42.achieve his objective is but this is not even definite, is it? No, it
:24:43. > :24:47.needs to go through the Senate. It's important because the first 100 days
:24:48. > :24:50.have been a disappointment. He went into office with ten key promises
:24:51. > :24:55.and has not delivered on any of those. There has been a torrent of
:24:56. > :24:59.executive orders and minor tweaks but most are been focused on
:25:00. > :25:04.reversing some of Barack Obama's things he brought in. The key thing
:25:05. > :25:09.is why does Trump want to push through health care reform? He wants
:25:10. > :25:15.to get his tax reform through and out of those three things he has
:25:16. > :25:18.promised, tax reform, infrastructure and deregulation, that's the one the
:25:19. > :25:23.market is focused on and a lot of the optimism is around that. We've
:25:24. > :25:29.got 30 seconds, so explain the dead mark oysters of China. Denmark has a
:25:30. > :25:33.glut of oysters on its coastline and it has gone to the Danish embassy in
:25:34. > :25:40.Beijing and said, could we sell these oysters to you online? And
:25:41. > :25:45.they got ten days from when they are picked? They can live up to two
:25:46. > :25:48.weeks but they are trying to expedite the customs process. The
:25:49. > :25:50.last thing you want is a dodgy oyster, right? And a great weekend.
:25:51. > :25:53.I appreciate your time. There will be more business news
:25:54. > :25:57.throughout the day on the BBC Live webpage and on World Business
:25:58. > :26:00.Report.