:00:00. > :00:08.This is Business Live from BBC News with Jamie Robertson and Ben Bland.
:00:09. > :00:15.Can the other G7 leaders keep the US President on side over
:00:16. > :00:40.Live from London, that's our top story on Friday 26th May.
:00:41. > :00:42.The US President has withdrawn from the Trans-Pacific Partnership
:00:43. > :00:43.and he's also attempting to renegotiate NAFTA.
:00:44. > :00:46.We'll ask an expert whether a new era of protectionism
:00:47. > :00:53.Canada's trade minister tells us why he's optimistic on the future
:00:54. > :01:04.And it's been a big week for crude - the world's oil-producing
:01:05. > :01:09.countries agree a deal to extend production cuts.
:01:10. > :01:16.Markets have been heading downwards on the last few days. The FTSE just
:01:17. > :01:19.starting up a little bit. We'll take a look at what this means
:01:20. > :01:24.for prices at the pump. And following the vice
:01:25. > :01:29.like grip of the handshake between Presidents Trump and Macron,
:01:30. > :01:32.we're getting to grips with the perfect greeting
:01:33. > :01:34.and asking how important Yesterday it was NATO,
:01:35. > :01:49.today it's the G7. A different place, Sicily this time,
:01:50. > :01:51.a different combination of world Let's take a look at
:01:52. > :01:59.why it's important. These seven countries account
:02:00. > :02:03.for getting on for half But many of them are struggling with
:02:04. > :02:10.comparatively stagnant economies. The International Monetary Fund
:02:11. > :02:16.is forecasting the world's economy will grow by 3.5% this year,
:02:17. > :02:19.but just 1.9% in the G7. Also high on the list of worries -
:02:20. > :02:22.the rise of trade protectionism after President Trump came to power
:02:23. > :02:25.promising to put "America First". The other G7 members will be
:02:26. > :02:31.pushing him to soften this position. Then there's the environment -
:02:32. > :02:34.the future of the 2015 Paris President Trump has threatened
:02:35. > :02:38.to pull the US out of the deal. His fellow G7 leaders
:02:39. > :02:46.will try to convince him otherwise. The hosts, Italy, are at
:02:47. > :02:49.the forefront of the migrant crisis. They will be pushing plans
:02:50. > :02:51.to strengthen Africa's economies - to try and cut the number
:02:52. > :02:54.of migrants leaving - and to promote food security
:02:55. > :03:05.for developing countries. Geoffrey Yu, head of
:03:06. > :03:09.Investment Office UK at UBS at UBS Wealth Management,
:03:10. > :03:18.is with me. Plenty on the agenda, what do you
:03:19. > :03:24.think will be the main priorities that they will be focusing on first?
:03:25. > :03:28.Probably trade and where Donald Trump stands, is he going to follow
:03:29. > :03:37.up with certain threats made during the election campaign to basically
:03:38. > :03:40.through protection arisen -- protectionism around the US,
:03:41. > :03:45.particularly with what happened with the Trans-Pacific Partnership, and
:03:46. > :03:51.this could be a very interesting dialogue. What about Teater, the
:03:52. > :03:56.American European agreement? Donald Trump of the nail in that coughing,
:03:57. > :04:01.is there any chance of it coming back? -- what about TTIP. At this
:04:02. > :04:06.point it would really be quite a U-turn, after moving away from the
:04:07. > :04:10.TTIP to embrace a new partnership. But they will try to convince him
:04:11. > :04:13.otherwise of the benefits and the business lobby in the US will be
:04:14. > :04:17.pushing for something as well. Climate is a big issue, there is the
:04:18. > :04:22.Paris agreement that Trump has threatened to pull the US out of, is
:04:23. > :04:26.that realistic or just his starting position for negotiations to try and
:04:27. > :04:37.make it more favourable to the US? I would say it is a starting position,
:04:38. > :04:38.there are ways to preserve the framework or domestically targeting
:04:39. > :04:41.certain industries that may struggle a bit with this agreement, so trying
:04:42. > :04:44.to provide benefits for injections around those, but he has a domestic
:04:45. > :04:54.audience and he is going to play to that. He rode to power almost on the
:04:55. > :04:58.coal industry, those old rust belt industries. That is very important
:04:59. > :05:02.for him as part of his core constituency. Having said that, he
:05:03. > :05:06.is not going to lose that constituency but he needs to show
:05:07. > :05:11.after the bad news domestically of late, he needs to deliver some
:05:12. > :05:16.results. The other interesting aspect is what they are going to do
:05:17. > :05:20.to help African economies. The host, Italy, is at the forefront of the
:05:21. > :05:24.migrant crisis, people coming to their shores in the hope of a better
:05:25. > :05:27.life. What realistically can they do to help support Africa's economies
:05:28. > :05:34.and reduce the need for people to leave? The most important thing is
:05:35. > :05:37.to not apply a broad brush to all North African economies at this
:05:38. > :05:41.point, there are differences between Morocco, Libya is the issue right
:05:42. > :05:49.now, former colonial power, they need to make sure there is stability
:05:50. > :05:51.from the failed state and with the tragic events in Manchester that has
:05:52. > :05:56.come to the forefront as well so that should be the starting point,
:05:57. > :05:59.combat institutional structures, failures and make sure terrorism is
:06:00. > :06:12.contained. Jeffri, many thanks.
:06:13. > :06:18.Let's cross to Canada, where -- to Singapore, where Canada's Trade
:06:19. > :06:32.Minister is on a visit. Donald Trump talked about the trade
:06:33. > :06:35.deal, he said it was a disaster costing millions of American jobs.
:06:36. > :06:40.He has talked about withdrawing from it completely if he cannot get
:06:41. > :06:45.better deals with Canada and Mexico. So Canada has been looking further
:06:46. > :06:51.afield, to Asia, in fact, to sign some new deals. This week the
:06:52. > :06:55.Canadian Trade Minister has been touring Asia, Vietnam, Singapore,
:06:56. > :07:01.South Korea and Japan. We spoke to him today and he told us that Nafta
:07:02. > :07:07.has been extremely beneficial, not just for Canada but for the US as
:07:08. > :07:10.well. This agreement has provided millions of good middle-class jobs
:07:11. > :07:14.on the boat side, 9 million jobs in the US depend on Canada but what
:07:15. > :07:17.makes it different is the relationship is unique, because we
:07:18. > :07:22.don't sell to each other, we make things together. Look at a car, for
:07:23. > :07:26.example, a typical car would often cross the border seven times before
:07:27. > :07:29.reaching the consumer so this agreement has been good, provided
:07:30. > :07:40.millions of middle-class jobs, and by the way this has been done two
:07:41. > :07:42.decades ago, it has been amended 11 times already so obviously we are
:07:43. > :07:46.proactive, we are confident, we will put things on the table, the US will
:07:47. > :07:49.do so, and it has to be in the interest of all three parties.
:07:50. > :07:54.The Canadian Trade Minister speaking to the BBC a little earlier today,
:07:55. > :08:00.trade is a major theme for Asia with Donald Trump having pulled out of
:08:01. > :08:03.the TPP, as you were saying earlier, lots of countries in this part of
:08:04. > :08:07.the world are looking for new partners in the wake of that
:08:08. > :08:10.withdrawal and are looking to redraw the trade map, so one to watch for
:08:11. > :08:16.years to come. Thank you very much indeed.
:08:17. > :08:20.Let's have a quick look at the market, the McKay down a touch,
:08:21. > :08:29.three quarters of a percent, the Dow ended yesterday at an all-time high,
:08:30. > :08:33.Surrey, the Dow a little bit of the all-time high. The European markets
:08:34. > :08:37.have just started, not a huge amount of movement but all down and key to
:08:38. > :08:45.that is the oil price, we will be talking about that in a second.
:08:46. > :08:49.Samira Hussain has the details about what's ahead on Wall Street today.
:08:50. > :08:52.It's the Friday before a long weekend in the United States.
:08:53. > :08:54.Monday is Memorial Day and a federal holiday which means US
:08:55. > :08:57.It is also the unofficial kick-off to the summer,
:08:58. > :09:00.but before we fire up the barbecues, some economic news to get through.
:09:01. > :09:03.The second reading of the US GDP, the gross domestic product growth,
:09:04. > :09:06.in the first quarter is expected to be revised up 0.9%
:09:07. > :09:13.Also happening on Friday, the Commerce Department will release
:09:14. > :09:16.durable goods data which is likely to have dropped 1.2% in April.
:09:17. > :09:21.Finally, the University of Michigan's survey of consumers
:09:22. > :09:24.releases its final May consumer sentiment index.
:09:25. > :09:27.This is important given two thirds of the US economy depends
:09:28. > :09:38.The more confident Americans feel, the more they will spend.
:09:39. > :09:40.Joining us is Mike Amey, managing director and
:09:41. > :09:52.Good to see you. The oil price down sharply, is there a sense among
:09:53. > :09:56.investors that oil producing companies did the bare minimum of
:09:57. > :10:00.what was expected and no more? Exactly, coming into the meeting
:10:01. > :10:04.there was an expectation we would cease production cuts, guided that
:10:05. > :10:07.way by the Saudis and the Russians, and really what they did was exactly
:10:08. > :10:11.what they said they would do. I think there was a little bit of hope
:10:12. > :10:15.and expectation that maybe you would get more than just the Saudis and
:10:16. > :10:24.the Russians, so a few more oil-producing would join the
:10:25. > :10:27.production cuts, that not happen, they did what they said they would
:10:28. > :10:31.do but the markets got ahead of themselves and we saw on the day a
:10:32. > :10:34.big move, 5% down is a big day limu. I have this picture in my mind of
:10:35. > :10:36.the Saudis, the Russians, Opec, trying to cut production is the
:10:37. > :10:39.price goes up, and the Americans on the other hand throwing oil in as
:10:40. > :10:43.fast as they can from the shale oil producers, trying to make as much
:10:44. > :10:48.money as possible and push the price down. There is an element of truth
:10:49. > :10:52.to that. Saudi and Russia, Government revenues are so dependent
:10:53. > :10:56.on oil revenues, they want to keep prices as high as possible.
:10:57. > :11:00.Unfortunately other producers over in the States, where the cost of
:11:01. > :11:03.production is around these kinds of metals, so unfortunately it is hard
:11:04. > :11:10.to get the price much above this because then you get this big supply
:11:11. > :11:14.from the US, so you have these two competing forces, which is why daily
:11:15. > :11:18.moves can be quite big but in the long-term the oil price looks like
:11:19. > :11:22.it'll be pretty stable, inbred towns around $50 a barrel. At the pump,
:11:23. > :11:26.which is what a lot of people care about, we would expect prices to be
:11:27. > :11:38.stable for the next year or two. The US markets DD again, the SNP and the
:11:39. > :11:43.Nasdaq both at record highs. What is going? The move is seen to be quite
:11:44. > :11:50.sharp at the moment. It is impressive, you get this impressive
:11:51. > :11:56.regular stock markets, most of them up 10% this year, we are only in
:11:57. > :12:02.May, and you get this continued rise. We get bouts of uncertainty
:12:03. > :12:06.but broadly speaking most economies are doing well, unemployment rates
:12:07. > :12:09.are coming down, earnings are holding well and if earnings hold
:12:10. > :12:13.well when people look for places to put their money, deposit rates are
:12:14. > :12:20.low, they look elsewhere and that is why the stock market is doing well.
:12:21. > :12:28.From your point of view, I would have thought the states are a bit
:12:29. > :12:31.risky at the moment? We have a preference for European stocks
:12:32. > :12:35.because the European stock market economy is a couple of years behind
:12:36. > :12:41.the US on the recovery so we would agree that the US looks like it is
:12:42. > :12:46.ahead of the cycle... And too expensive, do you think? We would
:12:47. > :12:48.say fair to a little bit expensive. Thank you, you will be back to talk
:12:49. > :12:51.through some of the paper stories with us.
:12:52. > :12:52.Stay with us on Business Live. We'll get the Inside Track on this
:12:53. > :12:56.week's big economic stories. It's been an important week
:12:57. > :12:58.for Greece and China - You're with Business
:12:59. > :13:13.Live from BBC News. House prices in London are predicted
:13:14. > :13:17.to fall in real terms across 2017 - marking the first time this has
:13:18. > :13:19.happened since 2011. Hometrack's latest report shows
:13:20. > :13:21.annual house price growth in London is already running at less
:13:22. > :13:24.than a third of the levels Theo Leggett has more
:13:25. > :13:38.from the Business newsroom. This is a survey of house prices in
:13:39. > :13:41.cities up and down the UK, exclusively cities, and it seems
:13:42. > :13:45.there is a north-south divide, or rather it comes in at the Midlands,
:13:46. > :13:49.because if you look at the southern cities, growing very rapidly in
:13:50. > :13:53.terms of house prices over the last few years, not just London but
:13:54. > :13:56.Bristol, Oxford, places like that, the rate of growth has gone down
:13:57. > :14:01.quite significantly from double figures to single figures, as you
:14:02. > :14:05.said in London we are looking at house price growth falling below the
:14:06. > :14:07.rate of inflation and therefore real terms falls for the first time since
:14:08. > :14:12.2011. But if you go to the Midlands,
:14:13. > :14:16.Birmingham and beyond, you see pretty big increases. In Manchester,
:14:17. > :14:23.house price growth last year was about 6.3%, it is now 8.4%.
:14:24. > :14:26.Leicester, Nottingham, Birmingham, also Edinburgh, all of the city
:14:27. > :14:41.showing an increase in price growth and the
:14:42. > :14:45.reason is that in the southern cities where growth has been strong
:14:46. > :14:47.up to now, there is an affordability problem, people are being priced out
:14:48. > :14:50.of the market. There is also a question of investors becoming less
:14:51. > :14:52.keen on buy to let property because of changes to the stamp duty regime,
:14:53. > :14:55.so you have this real difference between London, the Home Counties,
:14:56. > :14:57.the South of England, and the rest of the United Kingdom.
:14:58. > :14:57.OK, thank you very much indeed for that.
:14:58. > :15:04.Let's see what is on the Business Live page. The biggest UK tech
:15:05. > :15:08.flotation for two years, a British software developer valued at nearly
:15:09. > :15:22.?1 billion, which would make it the biggest UK tech firm. It is called
:15:23. > :15:27.Alfa Financial Software. Software for the financial industry, I don't
:15:28. > :15:32.quite understand it! This is quite a good job, professor
:15:33. > :15:41.of play, sponsored by Lego, Paul Brown John Downey.
:15:42. > :15:41.A ?4 million grant to help fund that.
:15:42. > :16:05.It pays for a lot of Lego bricks! You are watching business life.
:16:06. > :16:11.Greece failed to secure to unable to get an extra in Stormont for its
:16:12. > :16:18.bailout. Our economics correspondent Andrew Walker joins us now. We have
:16:19. > :16:26.been here before. We may well be here again. Yet again we have a
:16:27. > :16:33.Greek debt repayment deadline looming, money owed to investors and
:16:34. > :16:36.the European Central Bank coming in July and Greece needs the next
:16:37. > :16:42.bailout payment which has been delayed for many months in order to
:16:43. > :16:48.meet that debt obligation. We have been there before as well. On one
:16:49. > :16:53.occasion Greece missed a payment deadline to the International
:16:54. > :16:59.Monetary Fund by a short time. But what has been happening is Greece
:17:00. > :17:04.has now made reform commitments to satisfy the rest of the eurozone.
:17:05. > :17:09.They have also got the commendation of the International Monetary Fund,
:17:10. > :17:14.but some of the rest of the eurozone who would be making this payment
:17:15. > :17:19.indirectly through a eurozone agency, particularly Germany, wants
:17:20. > :17:24.to see the IMF sign off on the programme is being credible and the
:17:25. > :17:27.IMF is not prepared to do that. It thinks the projections for the Greek
:17:28. > :17:32.government finances and economic growth are not credible, they are
:17:33. > :17:35.too optimistic. They also think Greece needs some commitment to debt
:17:36. > :17:42.relief. There have been some narrowing of differences. There is a
:17:43. > :17:46.chance they will sign it of in mid-June when they meet, but they
:17:47. > :17:51.are not there yet. Regardless of all the details, a former Treasury
:17:52. > :18:00.Secretary says it does not make sense, there is a big hole in it.
:18:01. > :18:03.What is going on is the Donald Trump Administration has come up with a
:18:04. > :18:08.budget that includes proposals for cutting taxes and a central part of
:18:09. > :18:13.their economic strategy is the idea that tax cuts and deregulation will
:18:14. > :18:18.stimulate stronger economic growth, give incentives to businesses to
:18:19. > :18:25.invest, people to work more, and also the idea is that by cutting tax
:18:26. > :18:28.rates you eliminate or reduce the incentive to avoid taxes. So they
:18:29. > :18:36.are saying that the stronger economic growth will both offset the
:18:37. > :18:40.tax cuts by generating a larger taxpayers, but they also say it will
:18:41. > :18:45.help them close the budget deficit completely and eliminated by the end
:18:46. > :18:49.of a 10-year period. You can do one but not the other. That is what
:18:50. > :18:54.Larry Summers has suggested, but the Trump administration rejects this.
:18:55. > :18:58.But a whole load of people are joining in on the criticism. Another
:18:59. > :19:02.point critics have made is the assumption is in these budget
:19:03. > :19:06.projections is the US economy will grow at 3% per year over this
:19:07. > :19:14.10-year period. Many regard that as unrealistic. Yes, the US has done
:19:15. > :19:18.that in the past but productivity growth has been slow recently and
:19:19. > :19:22.the population is ageing, so a lot of people will be retiring and not
:19:23. > :19:27.generating that economic growth. One of the other big stories, Moody 's,
:19:28. > :19:32.the ratings agency downgrading China for the first time in almost 30
:19:33. > :19:37.years. It is worth emphasising the credit rating is still comfortably
:19:38. > :19:42.in investment-grade territory. We are talking nothing like a
:19:43. > :19:46.downgraded to junk status, but it is still striking. It reflects a
:19:47. > :19:51.slowdown in economic growth in China which we have talked about a lot in
:19:52. > :19:56.the last few years, plus Moody's assessment of the way in which China
:19:57. > :20:00.is responding to it. China wants to make this slowdown carefully managed
:20:01. > :20:04.and not too sharp. There has been quite a lot of stimulus coming from
:20:05. > :20:13.the Chinese government to ensure that is the case. Because Moody's
:20:14. > :20:18.have concerns, they are more likely to put the burden of any stimulus on
:20:19. > :20:21.fiscal policy, so more government borrowing and concerns about
:20:22. > :20:25.increasing debt amongst some of the state-owned enterprises and local
:20:26. > :20:29.government which makes them think the debt situation combined with
:20:30. > :20:37.slower economic growth means it is not as strong as it was. Is it a
:20:38. > :20:45.real problem, debt? Not an immediate problem but across the economy as a
:20:46. > :20:51.whole. We are talking about 30-50% of GDP, which compared to Greece is
:20:52. > :20:57.very small! But there is household debt, local government and state
:20:58. > :21:01.owned enterprises, all of these add up to the burden which is quite
:21:02. > :21:05.large for a country at that stage of economic development, but not an
:21:06. > :21:15.immediate catastrophe. Andrew, thank you very much. A quick reminder of
:21:16. > :21:19.how to get in touch with us. The business live page is where you can
:21:20. > :21:23.stay ahead with all the day's breaking business news. We will keep
:21:24. > :21:28.you up-to-date with all the details with analysis from the BBC's editors
:21:29. > :21:33.right around write around the world. We want to hear from you as well.
:21:34. > :21:42.Get involved on the BBC business live web page. We are also on
:21:43. > :21:43.Twitter and Facebook. Business live on TV and online, whenever you need
:21:44. > :21:49.to know. Let's see what other
:21:50. > :22:00.stories are being talked We were talking about the handshake
:22:01. > :22:06.between the two presidents. It was a battle of the grips, rather than a
:22:07. > :22:11.greeting. Quite vice like. How important is the handshake? Is it
:22:12. > :22:15.still important? I think it is. Unfortunately these two people have
:22:16. > :22:19.not met each other before and the first time they do it is in front of
:22:20. > :22:26.the world's cameras and they have both got a point to make. Who won
:22:27. > :22:30.it? The bookies' conclusion is that Emmanuel Macron might have just got
:22:31. > :22:33.this one. It will be interesting next time and every time they meet
:22:34. > :22:41.because people will be looking to see what happens. I think now, yes,
:22:42. > :22:48.absolutely, the next few times they meet that is what we will look for.
:22:49. > :22:53.There are videos of Donald Trump's embarrassing handshakes and there
:22:54. > :22:59.are a whole mass of them. He wants to make a point. Presentation is
:23:00. > :23:05.very important to him and one of the ways you try and get an early score
:23:06. > :23:09.is this. It is testosterone. That was our Twitter question, how
:23:10. > :23:15.important is handshake? James says, it is a file one. Ryan says for some
:23:16. > :23:20.reason people do not give a firm handshake back. He is wondering what
:23:21. > :23:24.is going on. It was a bit aggressive. Thank you
:23:25. > :23:30.for those tweets. What else was in the papers? We were talking about
:23:31. > :23:35.the World Bank and this is interesting. It is about clarity of
:23:36. > :23:39.language and keeping things nice and simple. One of their economists has
:23:40. > :23:47.been attacked for saying that he wants a limit on the number of the
:23:48. > :23:52.word and in a report. Izzy on to something or is he being pedantic? I
:23:53. > :23:56.think he is. If you have been lucky to see one of these reports, and the
:23:57. > :24:01.IMF and the World Bank produce dense documents, and his point is can we
:24:02. > :24:07.get the punch line out early and tighten up the language?
:24:08. > :24:11.They need journalists. We do not tend to go on at length and may
:24:12. > :24:16.question is longer than they need to be and carry on and go on and on. I
:24:17. > :24:23.labour the point, but there you go. We are all guilty of this, but it is
:24:24. > :24:32.that aim for brevity. He says he wants to reduce the
:24:33. > :24:37.number of ands down to 2.6%. You can get carried away with the statistics
:24:38. > :24:40.which economists do. But he has got a fair point because these reporters
:24:41. > :24:45.are dense and quite long and if you have a point to make, make it early
:24:46. > :24:50.on and then have the rest of the document to back it up. There is
:24:51. > :24:55.another one we wanted to talk about, the age of retirement. The World
:24:56. > :25:00.Economic Forum saying that maybe we should look at retiring at 70 to
:25:01. > :25:07.avoid a pensions crisis. Indeed. This is the UK.
:25:08. > :25:12.If the UK does it, everyone else will have to. If one Western country
:25:13. > :25:17.goes that way, there will be a momentum and in a year everyone will
:25:18. > :25:21.do it or nobody will do it. The challenge is as we are all lucky to
:25:22. > :25:26.see our life expectancy rise, we need to pay for that somehow.
:25:27. > :25:30.Working longer is one of the best way to do it. I take exception to
:25:31. > :25:36.this, this is the World Economic Forum. This is the elite, all of
:25:37. > :25:40.whom could retire at 30 and they are telling us we have to keep working
:25:41. > :25:44.until 70. I had a tweet earlier saying it is
:25:45. > :25:47.difficult for people in heavy industries. Maybe for news
:25:48. > :25:53.presenters it is fine, but not for everyone.
:25:54. > :26:00.This is heavy industry, mate! I am saying nothing! That is it.
:26:01. > :26:02.There will be more business news throughout the day. Have a good
:26:03. > :26:14.weekend, goodbye. Good morning. If you have plans for
:26:15. > :26:15.the bank holiday weekend it