23/10/2017

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:00:00. > :00:09.This is Business Live from BBC News with Jamie Robertson and Ben Bland.

:00:10. > :00:14.Full speed ahead for Shinzo Abe and Abenomics.

:00:15. > :00:16.His election win means the Japanese Prime Minister

:00:17. > :00:17.can continue his economic reform programme.

:00:18. > :00:19.Live from London, that's our top story

:00:20. > :00:40.Another $18 billion worth of stimulus has been promised

:00:41. > :00:46.to help boost Japan's flagging inflation and lift productivity.

:00:47. > :00:49.Also in the programme - Tesla could be the first foreign

:00:50. > :00:52.car company to have a manufacturing operation wholly "made in China".

:00:53. > :00:53.We'll find out more about the obstacles

:00:54. > :01:04.Not a huge amount of movement in the markets at the moment. We were

:01:05. > :01:08.following them throughout the day. Sending a message

:01:09. > :01:11.from the past to the future - the postcard is getting a digital

:01:12. > :01:13.revamp from tech company TouchNote. We'll find out why it's

:01:14. > :01:15.growing in popularity. Today we want to know -

:01:16. > :01:18.do you still send postcards? Wish you were here, that sort of

:01:19. > :01:20.thing. Who was the last person

:01:21. > :01:23.you sent one to and why? Let us know Just use

:01:24. > :01:31.the hashtag #BBCBizLive. The outlook for the world's third

:01:32. > :01:37.biggest economy will be shaped He's won another term

:01:38. > :01:43.in Sunday's elections. His second stint as Prime

:01:44. > :01:49.Minister began in 2012. And if the main stock index

:01:50. > :01:58.the Nikkei is anything to go by he's had a good influence

:01:59. > :02:00.for the economy. Much has been made of his Abenomics

:02:01. > :02:02.platform for reform. But one of the big problems

:02:03. > :02:10.is that whilst inflation has been going up, and he wants

:02:11. > :02:13.it to, it's only 0.7%. To try and boost that flagging

:02:14. > :02:17.number, Mr Abe has overseen The latest bundle is worth almost

:02:18. > :02:23.$18bn and will be spent on childcare

:02:24. > :02:26.and increasing productivity. It's being paid for by a 2%

:02:27. > :02:35.increase in sales tax. The plan to make it 10% from October

:02:36. > :02:42.2019 was a big election issue. For more we're joined

:02:43. > :02:53.by Karishma Vaswani, Shinzo Abe has been trying to boost

:02:54. > :02:59.the economy, to kick-start it for some time. How much more patience to

:03:00. > :03:03.think the bubble have and how much stronger position do you think he is

:03:04. > :03:08.now in after this election? Let me answer the second part of that

:03:09. > :03:11.question first. As a result of the figures that we are seeing out of

:03:12. > :03:16.Japan with regard to the election, he certainly seems to be winning a

:03:17. > :03:20.decisive victory. He will be in a much stronger position than he was

:03:21. > :03:24.perhaps right before he called the election with regards to the

:03:25. > :03:28.economy. This election was never about the Japanese economy but about

:03:29. > :03:36.North Korea, about constitutional reform and certainly Abenomics, his

:03:37. > :03:38.self named pillars of economic policy, the three pillars that he

:03:39. > :03:45.tried to jump-start the Japanese economy with, it has been a sort of

:03:46. > :03:49.unfinished business aspect to those policies. To some extent, the

:03:50. > :03:54.Japanese economy has done relatively well. It would be fair to say, over

:03:55. > :03:57.the past few years that he has been in office. But the structural

:03:58. > :04:01.reforms side of that Abenomics policy has yet to fully come through

:04:02. > :04:07.and have the impact that I think he wanted it to have. In that first

:04:08. > :04:14.press conference he gave a couple of hours ago, he was specific about

:04:15. > :04:17.certain measures, things like about streamlining the workforce, the

:04:18. > :04:23.ageing population and falling birth rate and those are problems that are

:04:24. > :04:27.easy to identify but hard to solve. This is the kind of stuff we have

:04:28. > :04:33.consistently heard from Shinzo Abe. It is nothing new. Japan has had an

:04:34. > :04:39.ageing problem for the last Nite in 15 years, a shrinking workforce were

:04:40. > :04:41.about just as long. There are easy, simple solutions to this, bringing

:04:42. > :04:46.more foreign talent into the country, that was part of the

:04:47. > :04:49.structural reform, adding no women into the workforce, again, another

:04:50. > :04:53.thing that Shinzo Abe has consistently talked about whilst in

:04:54. > :04:57.office, but as I was saying earlier, he has been able to push ahead with

:04:58. > :05:02.monetary policy, fiscal stimulus, he's not been able to address the

:05:03. > :05:06.key structural reforms in the Japanese economy and there are so

:05:07. > :05:09.many estimate is coming out about the Japanese economic GDP in the

:05:10. > :05:13.future that if the structural reforms are not get fixed we are

:05:14. > :05:18.likely to see growth rates dipping again to around 0% in the next

:05:19. > :05:24.couple of years. Why has he been unable to reform the economy in that

:05:25. > :05:31.way? To reform the way that people work in Japan. There are a lot of

:05:32. > :05:34.reasons for that. To put it simply, there are items of cultural baggage

:05:35. > :05:38.in Japan that make this difficult to achieve. I do not want to take away

:05:39. > :05:42.from some of the successes that Shinzo Abe has had. But looking at

:05:43. > :05:46.the examples we have been seen from corporate Japan in recent weeks,

:05:47. > :05:50.that we have been talking about on this channel for the last couple of

:05:51. > :05:58.days, issues with accounting problems, fabrication of data,

:05:59. > :06:02.looking at companies like Kobe Steel, the top-down hierarchy in

:06:03. > :06:05.companies in Japan needs to be addressed and this is a long-term

:06:06. > :06:10.problem and it will not be solved overnight. The fact that Shinzo Abe

:06:11. > :06:13.has made structural reform such a primary part of Abenomics is a

:06:14. > :06:18.credit in itself but he has got a lot of work left to do now that he

:06:19. > :06:20.has got such a strong mandate. Thank you very much indeed.

:06:21. > :06:24.Let's take a look at some of the other stories making the news.

:06:25. > :06:25.Two of Italy's richest northern regions

:06:26. > :06:32.The regional leaders claim more than 90% of voters

:06:33. > :06:37.In Lombardy, home to Italy's financial capital Milan,

:06:38. > :06:40.and the Veneto region around Venice. The referendum is non-binding.

:06:41. > :06:42.The regions together account for about 30%

:06:43. > :06:49.Britain's five biggest business lobby groups issued a joint letter

:06:50. > :06:52.to Brexit Secretary David Davis calling for an urgent Brexit

:06:53. > :06:54.transition deal to prevent job losses and

:06:55. > :06:58.The UK Government maintains the talks are "making real,

:06:59. > :07:06.China lifts a ban on imports of mould-ripened cheeses -

:07:07. > :07:08.including Camembert, Brie and Roquefort -

:07:09. > :07:10.following a meeting between European Commission

:07:11. > :07:16.An EU-China delegation said over the weekend that trade would be

:07:17. > :07:33.Let's have a look at the markets. The Australian market, the Hang Seng

:07:34. > :07:40.and the Dow are up, the other ones are down. The Japanese market up 1%

:07:41. > :07:45.but we are seeing the yen falling, which helps lots of the Japanese

:07:46. > :07:50.companies. Generally a feeling of excitement and enthusiasm behind the

:07:51. > :07:53.fact that Shinzo Abe has returned as Prime Minister of Japan. Looking at

:07:54. > :08:03.the European markets, this is how they started. Not much movement.

:08:04. > :08:05.Michelle Fleury has the details about what's ahead

:08:06. > :08:15.The recent hurricanes have had an impact on earnings for the third

:08:16. > :08:19.quarter. As the American stock market rally has its good legs?

:08:20. > :08:24.There are profit outlooks today just over the next few days. So far with

:08:25. > :08:27.the exception of the disappointing results from General Electric, the

:08:28. > :08:31.news from corporate America has been good. Looking ahead to this Monday,

:08:32. > :08:38.Halliburton is expected to report an increase in third-quarter profits.

:08:39. > :08:40.The oilfield sector has benefited from increased drilling activity in

:08:41. > :08:45.North America. But Wall Street beware. The company is likely to

:08:46. > :08:50.warn that the good times in the region are not sustainable. Hasbro

:08:51. > :08:54.has turned in third-quarter results. The toy maker said the Belkov 's

:08:55. > :08:57.profits are likely to come later in the year to coincide with the

:08:58. > :09:02.release of the latest film from the Star Wars franchise.

:09:03. > :09:07.Lawrence Gosling, editor in chief of Investment Week joins me now.

:09:08. > :09:17.Let's kick off with events in Tokyo. As Jamie mentioned, that has been a

:09:18. > :09:20.lukewarm response to this election result from the Nikkei. It is

:09:21. > :09:24.stability, and everyone knows what they're going to get from Shinzo

:09:25. > :09:29.Abe, and he has been re-elected and with a good majority so that is the

:09:30. > :09:34.sort of news people want. It allows them to build... You could say a

:09:35. > :09:39.third bite at the cherry, to get reforms and the stimulus going and

:09:40. > :09:44.inflation up. He's had two goes at it. Now it is his third. Will he

:09:45. > :09:48.make it? Will he be able to sort of breakthrough? Robert Lui not

:09:49. > :09:54.universally, because we are talking about decades of kind of Japanese --

:09:55. > :09:59.probably not universally. The session, in a sense. He's going in

:10:00. > :10:04.the right way, very steadily. Japan has an ageing population and they do

:10:05. > :10:12.not raise enough tax, hence the increase in VAT to help pay for the

:10:13. > :10:16.ageing population. What about in Europe, is Spain having an affect on

:10:17. > :10:19.the ECB? A couple of weeks ago it looked like Spain has settled down.

:10:20. > :10:26.Now it seems to be flaring up. One of the issues, talking about that

:10:27. > :10:30.whether we are in a bubble or not, professional investors are looking

:10:31. > :10:34.at the big risk that will crack the good general economic news that

:10:35. > :10:39.seems to be going on in the world. It is a very gloomy sort of boom,

:10:40. > :10:45.isn't it? We are thinking that it is all going to go horribly wrong at

:10:46. > :10:50.some point. But just had the anniversary of the 1987 crash in the

:10:51. > :10:54.UK. Younger investors, the Lever Brothers moment are still in the

:10:55. > :11:03.back of their minds. It is nine years ago. People remember how bad

:11:04. > :11:09.that was -- Lehman Brothers. It is one of the things that people point

:11:10. > :11:14.out, that a lot of of movement, the push upwards is coming from

:11:15. > :11:21.technology stocks. The Nasdaq is doing incredibly well. People are

:11:22. > :11:27.drawing parallels with the dotcom boom, with overvalued stocks.

:11:28. > :11:31.Microsoft is a 40-year-old company. It is almost like a utility company

:11:32. > :11:35.now. It was different this time. It is a dangerous expression to use,

:11:36. > :11:42.but I don't think we are moving into a bubble area around technology

:11:43. > :11:44.stocks. State gloomy, stay gloomy. Is that your phrase for life,

:11:45. > :11:54.Jamie?! Under the mattress! Giving a technological twist

:11:55. > :11:57.to an old favourite - sending postcards in

:11:58. > :11:59.the digital age. We'll find out more about an app

:12:00. > :12:02.that let's you do just that. You're with Business

:12:03. > :12:12.Live from BBC News. Consumer confidence has rallied

:12:13. > :12:15.in the third quarter of 2017 from professional

:12:16. > :12:20.services firm Deloitte. It's the first quarterly rise

:12:21. > :12:22.in consumer confidence Ben Perkins is head of consumer

:12:23. > :12:37.research at Deloitte. In some ways it is slightly

:12:38. > :12:40.surprising given that we are seeing prices increasing faster than wages

:12:41. > :12:44.within some cases people having to borrow to pay for the basics and yet

:12:45. > :12:54.consumer confidence reportedly doing better. Yes, it is. In terms of the

:12:55. > :12:58.drivers behind that it is confidence around two things. One is the

:12:59. > :13:04.security of employment. We know that we have record low unemployment at

:13:05. > :13:08.the moment so consumers are not feeling much concern around that

:13:09. > :13:16.and, as you mentioned, consumers continue to have access to plentiful

:13:17. > :13:20.and relatively cheap credit. It is a year now and which consumer

:13:21. > :13:26.confidence in this survey has been suppressed. Why is it unable to get

:13:27. > :13:29.going because, for instance, we have got full employment. You highlighted

:13:30. > :13:37.some of the major points at the start. One, the squeeze on

:13:38. > :13:42.disposable income so in the short-term, consumer confidence is

:13:43. > :13:45.quarter on quarter, but we look at disposable income and, year-on-year,

:13:46. > :13:52.disposable income is down nine points. So there is a considerable

:13:53. > :13:59.squeeze on consumers' incomes and we expect that to continue. Consumer

:14:00. > :14:05.spending has not been terribly strong but it hasn't collapsed.

:14:06. > :14:08.Given the lack of confidence, it suggests it might do. It feels like

:14:09. > :14:14.we're waiting for the trigger point. If you look at the graph of

:14:15. > :14:19.unsecured borrowing, it has risen dramatically over the past two

:14:20. > :14:22.years. Consumers have been dipping into their savings as we can see

:14:23. > :14:29.from the decline in the savings ratio. We're waiting for that

:14:30. > :14:35.trigger point which sort of force this gradual slowdown in demand,

:14:36. > :14:41.into something a bit sharper. Ben Perkins from Deloitte, thank you

:14:42. > :14:44.very much. More throughout the day on the website, the BBC Business

:14:45. > :14:57.Live page. Japan's Prime Minister Shinzo Abe

:14:58. > :15:01.wins another term in office - which is being seen as a vote

:15:02. > :15:04.of confidence for his A quick look at how

:15:05. > :15:09.markets are faring. Pathy and getting everybody behind

:15:10. > :15:12.your course of action is very important, if you get the support,

:15:13. > :15:14.you will have a group of very motivated people, who will always

:15:15. > :15:15.make much better decisions than ever you can.

:15:16. > :15:17.The European markets have just opened. They have decided to head

:15:18. > :15:20.down now. Not a huge amount. Nothing to panic

:15:21. > :15:22.about. I am sure we have time do that later.

:15:23. > :15:25.That is the latest doom and gloom update from Jamie.

:15:26. > :15:28.Now, let's get a new twist on an old - but increasingly

:15:29. > :15:32.In the last 20 years, the number of people sending

:15:33. > :15:36.The postcard boom began around 1900 after printing methods

:15:37. > :15:37.improved and postal charges became more affordable.

:15:38. > :15:40.And the rise of technology has meant sending photos quickly and easily

:15:41. > :15:44.to friends and family from nearly everywhere around the world.

:15:45. > :15:46.But an app that is bridging the gap is TouchNote -

:15:47. > :15:48.which sends digital postcards using the sender's own photos.

:15:49. > :15:58.So far, ten million have been sent since the app went live in 2008.

:15:59. > :16:04.Oded Ran is the chief executive of TouchNote.

:16:05. > :16:13.How much does it cost? I can get a postcard in a shop for 50 experience

:16:14. > :16:16.send it for another pound, so that is about $50 experience send it for

:16:17. > :16:19.another pound, so that is about a dollar, is.30. If you send a single

:16:20. > :16:24.karkt it will cost you 2.99. If you send lots it will go down to 1.50,

:16:25. > :16:29.the nice thing about it is you don't need to go and select a card, buy

:16:30. > :16:33.stamp, wait in the Post Office, you can do it all from the comfort of

:16:34. > :16:38.your home. You take your own picture, right? Correct. Put it in

:16:39. > :16:42.the app and what? This is a card someone sends on holiday, and you

:16:43. > :16:48.literally, you upload a photo. We do the rest. Part of the reason people

:16:49. > :16:52.haven't been sending cards for the last few year, is really because it

:16:53. > :16:59.has been much more complicated than to do it on line. We make it easy to

:17:00. > :17:05.send something meaningful, tangible as it is to send it digitally. It is

:17:06. > :17:11.all typewritten. I don't think I want to send one. You can send hand

:17:12. > :17:16.writing. My own? You can. No-one could read it then, Jamie. You are

:17:17. > :17:20.right there. One of the things people love to customise if you see

:17:21. > :17:24.here, we put a stamp with our logo on it. People can customise the

:17:25. > :17:28.stamp itself, so if you dreamed about having your face replaced, the

:17:29. > :17:32.face of the Queen in the stamp you can send a postcard with TouchNote

:17:33. > :17:36.and it will be sent with your face or the face of your child on the

:17:37. > :17:40.postcard when it is sent in the post. Other companies do this as

:17:41. > :17:43.well, what is it that yours does, that makes you stand out from what

:17:44. > :17:49.is a very competitive market? The market is very large, we are talking

:17:50. > :17:53.about 20 billion dollar market or ?15 billion, the vast majority are

:17:54. > :17:57.generated in the high street, in retail shops. Only a small

:17:58. > :18:01.proportion 10% is online. Out of which mobile is very small. So this

:18:02. > :18:05.is a very large market. To give you a history, TouchNote was the first

:18:06. > :18:11.app of its kind, in 2008, to do what we do. We have grown substantially.

:18:12. > :18:16.Last year our revenued grossed 57 million. We sent our 10 millionth

:18:17. > :18:21.card last wreak. What people love about it is how easy it is do and

:18:22. > :18:24.you don't need to even on the computer spend hours creating the

:18:25. > :18:27.card or another product to send. Are you making a profit yet? We have

:18:28. > :18:35.been profitable last year. When did you start? We started in 2008. 2016

:18:36. > :18:43.was a year where we were profitable, which is hard for any tech company,

:18:44. > :18:47.we are happy to be in, this year we are doubling down on our expansion.

:18:48. > :18:52.How do you expand, now you are making money, what you going to do,

:18:53. > :18:56.have long holidays and send post cards? Good one. There are two

:18:57. > :19:00.billion people in the world right now, with smartphones and we all

:19:01. > :19:05.carry these amazing phone, they have cameras and we take thousands of

:19:06. > :19:09.photos every month. These photos, we help people turn them into the best

:19:10. > :19:14.products out there. We are the beginning of the journey. Behind my

:19:15. > :19:18.comment, how are you going to expand, what are you spending your

:19:19. > :19:22.Monday on to expand? You have done the hard work of designing the app,

:19:23. > :19:26.what do you do now? It is never ending so we have increasing the

:19:27. > :19:31.team in the UK, we doubled the size of the team last year, in the UK,

:19:32. > :19:36.and we spent a lot of time recruiting the best people. We are

:19:37. > :19:42.doubling the marketing, this year we launched a successful marketing

:19:43. > :19:47.campaign in the just as we enter the US market. I am interested, what are

:19:48. > :19:51.your margins? We have been profitable a year, a, we launch

:19:52. > :19:57.additional products. Your margin, what kind of margins do you have?

:19:58. > :20:00.The profit margin last year we broke profit, just above the operating

:20:01. > :20:04.cost, we are focussing this year on doing whatever it takes to grow the

:20:05. > :20:09.market, to be more relevant. I mean, just further for the benefit of the

:20:10. > :20:14.viewers beaming up at us from the table, an example of some of the

:20:15. > :20:18.other stuff they do. It is canvas, they have very kindly printed off

:20:19. > :20:22.the presenter, unfortunately Sally and Ben aren't here. If we pop that

:20:23. > :20:27.there, you know, it is like they are with us, almost. They are on

:20:28. > :20:32.holiday. I here that Ben is in Dubai, I am sure he is watching us,

:20:33. > :20:38.I am sure he is sending a holiday postcard. We are asking today,

:20:39. > :20:44.whether you still send post cards, we had lots of tweets. Ian says no,

:20:45. > :20:48.I put photos on Facebook, Ryan says I haven't gone anywhere worthy to

:20:49. > :20:53.send one but sure I would. David said the last one I sent were in

:20:54. > :21:00.Tokyo ten years ago. Another one says I use the postal service, I

:21:01. > :21:05.sent the last one to my mother. And another says I send post cards, I

:21:06. > :21:10.don't need a phone to do it for me. They are still round. You still see

:21:11. > :21:14.them sold everywhere. Indeed. We will make sure this gets to Ben and

:21:15. > :21:24.Sally and thank you for talking to us. See you soon. Thank you.

:21:25. > :21:26.He found there was one big difference between the running

:21:27. > :21:29.a business in theory in running one in practice.

:21:30. > :21:35.People matter more than he'd ever thought.

:21:36. > :21:55.It's all about trusting and delegating the team underneath you.

:21:56. > :22:03.The big difference between advising and doing is that you are crucially

:22:04. > :22:07.reliant on the team of people around you, understanding people's

:22:08. > :22:09.feelings, having basic human empathy and getting everybody

:22:10. > :22:11.behind your course of action is very important.

:22:12. > :22:13.If you get the support, you will have a group

:22:14. > :22:16.of very motivated people, who will always make much better

:22:17. > :22:34.Lawrence is back to look through the papers.

:22:35. > :22:39.Big question but this question about whether capitalism has had its day.

:22:40. > :22:43.Significant because it is coming from some of the UK's top business

:22:44. > :22:47.leaders. I think people will remember the Prime Minister stood up

:22:48. > :22:51.at the Tory party conference and defended free market capitalism. We

:22:52. > :23:02.have people like Caroline fair burn who runs the CBI, and a former

:23:03. > :23:08.Business Minister who chairs Santander, saying, capitalism has

:23:09. > :23:12.been going one way for too long, and perhaps, you know, employees,

:23:13. > :23:14.everybody else has been missed out the equation over the drive to

:23:15. > :23:18.increase profits and look after shareholders. One of the things

:23:19. > :23:24.about capitalism and free markets is if you take it to extreme or let it

:23:25. > :23:29.go unbridled the obvious thing do is you end up cheating, don't you,

:23:30. > :23:33.because, if the ultimate competitive market is when you do everything you

:23:34. > :23:38.can to get ahead and so you have to cheat. Isn't that what happens? For

:23:39. > :23:41.some, I would argue it is like the party where there be somebody who

:23:42. > :23:46.drinks a bit too much if the alcohol is free. Not even does that and it

:23:47. > :23:48.is significant some of the big businesses and some are

:23:49. > :23:51.representative of the high street banks who have not covered

:23:52. > :23:55.themselves in Gloucestershire ray in the last decade, not necessarily the

:23:56. > :23:59.case with Santander, I might add. It's a question of where is the

:24:00. > :24:03.balance, capitalism can be good if everybody is included in the

:24:04. > :24:05.equation. These people are all saying actually there is big parts

:24:06. > :24:10.of society who have been missed out. There is a need for a sort of, they

:24:11. > :24:16.call it a reboot, so look at what... Regulation. It is partly regulation

:24:17. > :24:19.it is about ethics, people running companies, what are they trying to

:24:20. > :24:22.do? Are they trying to get themselves rich or are they trying

:24:23. > :24:25.to make a reasonable amount of money and look after their colleague, the

:24:26. > :24:31.shareholders, and the wired society. I think that is what the debate is

:24:32. > :24:38.about. Move on to the this story in which paper? The New York Times.

:24:39. > :24:42.Tesla potentially becoming the first foreign car company to have a wholly

:24:43. > :24:47.owned manufacturing operation in China. It will test that

:24:48. > :24:50.relationship between foreign companies and Chinese companies.

:24:51. > :24:55.There Trump goes to China next month so this is a test. China is the

:24:56. > :24:58.largest conup soar and producers of electric cars, so you can see who

:24:59. > :25:05.why Tesla wants to get in there. There is a massive tariff of 25% to

:25:06. > :25:10.export cars into China. China. New York Times says it is close to

:25:11. > :25:14.setting up a base in shack hire, and becoming the sort of -- Shanghai and

:25:15. > :25:18.becoming the first foreign car company to have its own subsidiary.

:25:19. > :25:22.That would be hugely important to Tesla and the broader growth of the

:25:23. > :25:27.Chinese market. Quickly on craft beer, boom pushes a number of Brewer

:25:28. > :25:34.over 2,000, what is interesting is that 27 pubs close every week. Yes.

:25:35. > :25:38.Interesting contradiction. Those who have complained Gordon Brown did

:25:39. > :25:45.nothing when he was Chancellor can thank him for this.

:25:46. > :25:49.Beer is good but they are not drinking it in pubs any more. We are

:25:50. > :25:53.hearing the music which is the bell for last orders or the equivalent.

:25:54. > :25:55.Good to see you, good to see you too, we will be back soon. Have a

:25:56. > :25:56.good day. Bye.