:00:00. > :00:00.As 2016 draws to a close, we are going to look back on a year which
:00:00. > :00:00.featured two events which will shape the global economy for decades to
:00:00. > :00:23.come. Welcome to Business Live's review of 2016. Yep, this year saw
:00:24. > :00:27.the UK take that momentous decision to leave the European Union. We are
:00:28. > :00:33.going to take a look at what lies in store for the next 12 months. And he
:00:34. > :00:37.did it. The billionaire businessman Donald Trump wins the race for the
:00:38. > :00:42.White House. He has made some bold announcements, what was it all talk
:00:43. > :00:46.and no action? And of course, it has been a turbulent year for the global
:00:47. > :00:50.market. Oil prices hit that historic low. There is light at the end of
:00:51. > :00:57.the tunnel. And of course, following a landmark deal between members of
:00:58. > :01:02.the OPEC countries. And exploding phones, driverless cars and virtual
:01:03. > :01:06.reality. It has been an eventful 12 months in the world of tech but what
:01:07. > :01:17.can we look forward to in 2017? We will speak to our resident gadget
:01:18. > :01:23.guru. And indeed, a very warm welcome to a very special edition of
:01:24. > :01:27.Business Live. This year saw two of the biggest political results of the
:01:28. > :01:31.decade, as the recent trend towards globalisation kind of took a step
:01:32. > :01:35.back. There are now dark clouds of uncertainty hanging over two of the
:01:36. > :01:38.world's biggest economies, Europe and the United States. So let's
:01:39. > :01:43.start by taking a look back at what happened following the UK's decision
:01:44. > :01:48.to leave the European Union. Tonight at 10pm, the voters decide that
:01:49. > :01:52.after four decades it is time for Britain to leave the European Union.
:01:53. > :01:56.I do not think it would be right for me to try to be the captain that
:01:57. > :02:01.steers our country to its next destination. Across Asia today we
:02:02. > :02:06.have seen shares fall on the major markets, like Japan's Nikkei, down
:02:07. > :02:10.more than 7%. Now look what happened, it tumbled down to levels
:02:11. > :02:13.not seen since the 1980s. Many people in the financial markets,
:02:14. > :02:18.caught perhaps unawares by this decision. Brexit means Brexit, and
:02:19. > :02:23.we are going to make a success of it. It is a victory against the big
:02:24. > :02:28.merchant banks, against the big businesses, and against big
:02:29. > :02:36.politics. At the end of the day, Jamie Dunn, JP Morgan,
:02:37. > :02:40.gold-medallist Goldman Sachs, have a good holiday. Because I will give
:02:41. > :02:44.you a clue guys, you will be back. We are joined by economics editor,
:02:45. > :02:54.Ahmed. We thought Brexit back in the summer. We are looking ahead to
:02:55. > :02:57.2017. Where do we stand in terms of UK negotiations? Every thing looks
:02:58. > :03:01.so uncertain, doesn't it? I think the phoney war will come to an end.
:03:02. > :03:04.Obviously Britain voted to leave the European Union in June, and actually
:03:05. > :03:07.the practicalities of that will start next year. So the British
:03:08. > :03:11.government wants to spark what is called Article 50, that starts the
:03:12. > :03:17.process of exit, by the end of March. That is a two you process, so
:03:18. > :03:22.that process should be completed, we think, by 2019. I think their
:03:23. > :03:26.attentions on both sides. In Britain there are tensions between those who
:03:27. > :03:30.want what is called a hired Brexit, fully out of the single market, out
:03:31. > :03:35.of the customs union, able to sign trade deals around the world itself,
:03:36. > :03:41.with no reference to the European Union, and those that want a softer
:03:42. > :03:44.Brexit. Still having preferential access to the single market,
:03:45. > :03:48.possibly still in the customs union. That is attention on one side. On
:03:49. > :03:52.the European side, the 27 other member states, there are tensions
:03:53. > :03:56.between those who want to ensure that Britain doesn't get a better
:03:57. > :03:59.deal by coming out of the European Union, politically unpalatable as
:04:00. > :04:03.that is, but also Britain is the second largest economy in Europe.
:04:04. > :04:07.They don't want to set up trade barriers such that the European
:04:08. > :04:11.economy itself suffers by losing the British market. And of course
:04:12. > :04:15.London, the city, is one of the global leading financial centres.
:04:16. > :04:20.Europe needs the city to fund its own businesses. Indeed it does.
:04:21. > :04:24.Talking of financials, let's bring up the motherboard, because I want
:04:25. > :04:29.to talk about that. We can bring it up, because I want to talk about the
:04:30. > :04:38.FTSE and the pound. This is how they ended as of the 20 -- 21st of
:04:39. > :04:42.December. Everyone talked about how if there was a vote for Brexit we
:04:43. > :04:46.would see that pound plunge. Exactly, investors would think that
:04:47. > :04:49.assets in the UK may be less valuable in the future so that money
:04:50. > :04:53.would be better employed on the European continent, and frankly in
:04:54. > :04:56.America, and so the pound has fallen in value. I think what is
:04:57. > :05:00.interesting, and maybe slightly more surprising, is how good equities
:05:01. > :05:06.have been and the markets have been. I think in a way although Brexit is
:05:07. > :05:09.incredibly important, politically and economically, the fundamentals
:05:10. > :05:14.haven't changed that much yet. And so equities are still very
:05:15. > :05:17.attractive, because of the hyper low interest rates, very loose monetary
:05:18. > :05:22.policy, no signal yet from Britain, really. The central bank in the UK
:05:23. > :05:25.or the central bank in Europe, that interest rates are going to rise any
:05:26. > :05:30.time soon, and certainly not quickly. So the equities run has
:05:31. > :05:34.been very powerful. Of course, a lot of those equities in the FTSE, the
:05:35. > :05:38.London market, are companies that are global. The profits are in
:05:39. > :05:42.dollars, and so as sterling falls, their profits actually... Yes, their
:05:43. > :05:46.actual profits are then sparked upwards. So you get to a situation
:05:47. > :05:50.where those equities are doing rather well. So you have this sort
:05:51. > :05:54.of clash, equities positive, sterling having a tough time. You
:05:55. > :05:58.touched on Europe, the European project, how is it looking going
:05:59. > :06:03.into 2017? Again, Brexit is important, but I wouldn't suggest it
:06:04. > :06:06.is the most important thing going on in Europe in 2017. You have
:06:07. > :06:09.elections in the Netherlands, you have elections in France, you have
:06:10. > :06:13.elections in Germany, and each of those elections will be a big test
:06:14. > :06:18.about the kind of Europe that the voters in Europe want. A reformed
:06:19. > :06:21.Europe, they still want higher levels of unemployment, problems
:06:22. > :06:25.with growth, what types of Europe will people who support the project,
:06:26. > :06:29.when those elections, or will people who want to rip up the project and
:06:30. > :06:33.cause more tension in Europe and possibly split up the European
:06:34. > :06:37.Union, will they went? Is going to be a fascinating year. We are going
:06:38. > :06:41.to wrap it up, but let's put the cards on the table. Could we see a
:06:42. > :06:45.European shock like we have seen Brexit, and the election of Donald
:06:46. > :06:49.Trump? All the polls, I know we have to be very careful, all the polls
:06:50. > :06:53.suggest not, but at the end of 2017, what might be described as the
:06:54. > :06:57.establishment parties have read... Put themselves back at the centre of
:06:58. > :07:01.Europe. The European project is incredibly important to the European
:07:02. > :07:04.governments, at the end of 2017, at the polls suggest, that they will
:07:05. > :07:10.look more victorious than those who want to break up the European Union.
:07:11. > :07:15.One thing we learnt this year was don't listen to the polls! Thank you
:07:16. > :07:20.for your time this year, happy New Year. Thank you, and to you. The
:07:21. > :07:23.other UK's decision to leave the European Union certainly surprised
:07:24. > :07:27.the markets but investors didn't have to wait long for the next
:07:28. > :07:30.upset. He did it, the billionaire businessman Donald Trump swept to
:07:31. > :07:34.power in certainly one of the most divisive political campaigns in
:07:35. > :07:40.living memory. That's take a look back at some of those highlights.
:07:41. > :07:44.Right now 92 million Americans are on the sideline, outside of the
:07:45. > :07:49.workforce, and they are not a part of our economy. It is a silent
:07:50. > :07:53.nation of jobless Americans. Donald was one of the people who rooted the
:07:54. > :08:00.housing crisis. He said back in 2006, gee, I hope it does collapse
:08:01. > :08:03.because then I can go in and buy some and makes money. Well, it did
:08:04. > :08:09.collapse. That is core business. 9 million people. We will build the
:08:10. > :08:15.wall, 100%, and Mexico will be paying for the wall. Just imagine
:08:16. > :08:24.how many more automobile jobs will be lost if the TPP is actually
:08:25. > :08:28.approved. It will be catastrophic. We can't continue to allow China to
:08:29. > :08:33.rape our country, and that is what they are doing. Donald J Trump, the
:08:34. > :08:38.billionaire property developer with no previous experience of public
:08:39. > :08:46.office, is the 45th President of the United States. Companies are not
:08:47. > :08:50.going to leave the United States any more, without consequence. It is not
:08:51. > :09:00.going to happen. It's not going to happen. Our number one priority is
:09:01. > :09:04.going to be the economy, getting back to 324% growth, we believe that
:09:05. > :09:15.is very sustainable, and focus on things for the American worker. That
:09:16. > :09:21.is absolutely a priority. Nice, thunderous music there. I love it, I
:09:22. > :09:33.love the drama. A former White House adviser is here to add to the drama.
:09:34. > :09:37.And Pippa, you did it. You picked Brexit and he picked Trump. When you
:09:38. > :09:43.want to talk about the economics, Trump's vision for the economy. This
:09:44. > :09:47.is what we have been hearing day in and out over the last couple of
:09:48. > :09:51.weeks. The team that he is building, what do you make of it? Last one was
:09:52. > :09:57.Mr Navarro, who wrote one of his books, death by China. Yes, exactly.
:09:58. > :10:01.One thing that is interesting, here's picking people with very
:10:02. > :10:04.different points of view. They will have a Cabinet which actually
:10:05. > :10:08.argues, which may not be a bad thing. They are going to have
:10:09. > :10:12.debates and proper punch-ups about what is the right direction to go.
:10:13. > :10:15.So that is one thing. Second thing, the establishment is very upset
:10:16. > :10:20.about all these new people, because they are not. The electorate said
:10:21. > :10:23.they want the establishment out, I want something new in, something
:10:24. > :10:27.that looks after my interest more. That is what I think they are going
:10:28. > :10:32.to deliver. It is kind of... I think someone described it as bonfire of
:10:33. > :10:36.the agencies. Trump has been brought into literally burn the house down
:10:37. > :10:40.and start again, reconstruct this thing, and Washington was overgrown
:10:41. > :10:44.in many ways. So will they be accidents along the way? Look, every
:10:45. > :10:48.president makes mistakes, so we are going to see those for sure. But on
:10:49. > :10:51.the other hand, the upside here may be greater than people expect. Just
:10:52. > :10:54.because they don't like him personally, but the markets are
:10:55. > :11:00.going to like his policies. We have seen that with the Dow, haven't we?
:11:01. > :11:04.The wild card, though, is straight and the trade policy, and whether
:11:05. > :11:08.that is going to harm growth in the future. What is your take on that?
:11:09. > :11:13.So again, I suspect, I don't know, these are my personal views, but I
:11:14. > :11:18.think that there is a lot of bluster about trade policy. But in the end,
:11:19. > :11:22.what they want to do is sell more American goods, have better quality
:11:23. > :11:27.imports, so the end goal is to actually have trade, they just won't
:11:28. > :11:32.use that word. We will hear free trade less and less. We will hear
:11:33. > :11:36.more things like smart business. But does it really mean something
:11:37. > :11:39.profoundly different? Maybe not. Because they are saying you can't
:11:40. > :11:43.see the US as an island, it can't just act as an island. It has to
:11:44. > :11:48.trade in the world. It does, although to be fair, less than 2% of
:11:49. > :11:53.US GDP depends on exports, so as a nation we are incredibly lucky. We
:11:54. > :11:56.can be an engine even if the rest of the world is in growing very well.
:11:57. > :11:59.Traders are relatively small part our economy, compared to most
:12:00. > :12:05.others. So they do something to keep in mind. Good to talk to you, Pippa.
:12:06. > :12:09.Thank you very much indeed. Still to come, exploding phones, driverless
:12:10. > :12:13.cars, and virtual reality. It has all been a very eventful 12 months
:12:14. > :12:18.in the world of tech. But what can we look forward to in 2017? We are
:12:19. > :12:24.going to find out, we will speak to the group, Rory Cellan-Jones. You
:12:25. > :12:28.are watching Is this Live from BBC News. Throughout the show we have
:12:29. > :12:33.been hearing about how the events of 2016 are set to shake the business
:12:34. > :12:39.landscape for years to come. 2017 is set to be a busy year. The BBC's
:12:40. > :12:43.Theo Leggatt has a timeline of key events in the next 12 months. In
:12:44. > :12:48.January, President-elect Donald Trump enters the White House.
:12:49. > :12:51.Onlookers will be keen to see if it follows through with plans to
:12:52. > :12:55.restrict trade and inject hundreds of billions of dollars into the US
:12:56. > :12:59.economy. Fast forward a couple of months and we will see the first big
:13:00. > :13:03.development in the Brexit story. The UK prime minister says she will
:13:04. > :13:06.trigger Article 50 by the end of March. This is when Britain can
:13:07. > :13:10.start formal negotiations with the European Union, and we may begin to
:13:11. > :13:14.see what the new relationship could look like in years to come. This is
:13:15. > :13:23.of course crucial to the future of the EU project. France is one other
:13:24. > :13:30.country which we -- will be paying close attention. The far right
:13:31. > :13:36.candidate Marine Le Pen is riding high on NT Europe sentiment which is
:13:37. > :13:39.sweeping the globe. She is a staunch Eurosceptic so there could be bad
:13:40. > :13:43.news for Brussels of Shias voted into power. In Germany it is a
:13:44. > :13:46.similar picture. Recent events have seen Chancellor Angela Merkel come
:13:47. > :13:52.under fire for her opendoor migrant policy. The public could go to the
:13:53. > :13:55.polls as early as August 27. The German leader has seen a steady
:13:56. > :13:59.decline in her popularity ratings over the last few years. 2016 is
:14:00. > :14:01.anything to go by, the next 12 months could be very interesting
:14:02. > :14:12.indeed. Looking at the markets, and starting
:14:13. > :14:16.the stocks in Europe. The sterling down 16%, pretty much expected. But
:14:17. > :14:23.the FTSE is up some 13%. The European market gained. Not a bad
:14:24. > :14:29.year. This is up until December the 20th. You call it the quid, I call
:14:30. > :14:35.it this way. In the US, in terms of the Dow Jones, a rise of around 15%
:14:36. > :14:38.this year -- the screen. Anticipating that Donald Trump may
:14:39. > :14:43.follow through with his trillion dollar spending plan. It could
:14:44. > :14:47.provide a boost to many major American companies, let's admit it,
:14:48. > :14:51.they need it. It is borrow and build, but maybe they don't need to
:14:52. > :14:57.borrow. Many investors may throw their money into infrastructure.
:14:58. > :15:05.You are watching Business Live, review 2016. Events of the past 12
:15:06. > :15:10.months have made for a turbulent year in global markets. The price of
:15:11. > :15:15.the black stuff, oil, was already added to point for a decade. This
:15:16. > :15:19.had investors wondering whether the market could get any lower. In
:15:20. > :15:23.January, Eranga return to international markets following the
:15:24. > :15:29.lifting of Western sanctions, and crude fell below $20 per barrel --
:15:30. > :15:32.Iran. It proved to be short lived. The market rallied some of that
:15:33. > :15:37.oversupply left the market, if you will. In September, some of the
:15:38. > :15:41.world's leading oil-producing nations managed to reach a landmark
:15:42. > :15:45.agreement to the first time in November in over eight years.
:15:46. > :15:51.Members of OPEC struck a deal to limit production. Initially, the
:15:52. > :15:56.market had it doubts that the deal were told, but after Iran and Saudi
:15:57. > :16:00.Arabia agreed to resolve their differences, the oil price surged
:16:01. > :16:09.once more. We can say to a senior royal and gas analyst. A good Aussie
:16:10. > :16:16.institution. That is the key. What we just said there, we have all
:16:17. > :16:20.agreed, but with a stick to that? Complaints is always key. They have
:16:21. > :16:25.not done it for awhile. -- compliance. What encourages the
:16:26. > :16:30.market is that the core countries of OPEC, the Gulf countries like
:16:31. > :16:34.Arabia, UAE, wait, the make up more than half, and they will comply.
:16:35. > :16:38.They have to comply given their budget constraints -- to wait. We
:16:39. > :16:42.think most of the rest of the countries will comply to some
:16:43. > :16:47.degree. Many countries tempted by the slightly higher oil price to
:16:48. > :16:51.increase supply and make more money. It has been hard going for countries
:16:52. > :16:57.including South America in some African countries. Yes, and also
:16:58. > :17:02.Libya and Nigeria, coming out of a depressed position. They will be
:17:03. > :17:10.allowed to increase. There will be a lot of complaints. When we saw that
:17:11. > :17:15.announcement, in the lead up, they have finally made this agreement,
:17:16. > :17:19.but they cut record levels. Rush was producing more than 11 million a
:17:20. > :17:24.day, something like that. -- brush. Will it make a huge difference? With
:17:25. > :17:30.demand increasing, lower prices equals that it is cheaper, so demand
:17:31. > :17:34.growth is good. How long will that last now prices are rising? Unless
:17:35. > :17:38.there is a recession in the West, we will see a decent amount of growth.
:17:39. > :17:44.It will increase the wiggle room some of the countries have. Yes, the
:17:45. > :17:52.US is also producing a lot at the moment. The worry is producing even
:17:53. > :18:01.more. It will be crackers when I come into it because of the price,
:18:02. > :18:07.making money. -- a fracas. They can switch it on pretty quickly? There
:18:08. > :18:11.is a finite limit to that. With a bit of compliance and demand and
:18:12. > :18:18.great, I think the oil price will reach $60. Next you? It is $55 now,
:18:19. > :18:24.so we're not far away -- nest you. Brent crude up in 2016. What are
:18:25. > :18:33.your predictions that 2017? As I say, $60. No $100 mark? Unless there
:18:34. > :18:37.is a cataclysm somewhere. We have had that before. We are not
:18:38. > :18:42.forecasting that. And nice and smooth path back up to $70. We will
:18:43. > :18:46.have you back next year to work out if you were right. We have put you
:18:47. > :18:54.on the spot. Thank you for joining us. In a moment we will be talking
:18:55. > :19:01.tech. I love talking tech. You like talking in general. He is taking
:19:02. > :19:04.photos of us. Then he will put it on social media. We will look at the
:19:05. > :19:21.year in social media. They are daft people in our office
:19:22. > :19:49.playing it. Majorly disappointed, it changed my
:19:50. > :19:53.life for a week and there was gone. Best out this year. -- then it was
:19:54. > :20:06.gone. Sitting in Scotland says I would
:20:07. > :20:11.never use a driverless taxi or vehicle, and in India, I would be
:20:12. > :20:28.scared to sit in one in India because it might malfunction.
:20:29. > :20:35.I tweeted this about five o'clock this morning and had nothing but a
:20:36. > :20:45.short and sharp response from viewers about this one. It has been
:20:46. > :20:49.an interesting year. A sally appearance. 2016 has been an
:20:50. > :20:52.eventful year in the world of tech. We have seen travellers taxes
:20:53. > :20:58.picking up passengers for the first time. And of course the war between
:20:59. > :21:05.Samsung and Apple reached explosive new heights, I see what they did
:21:06. > :21:11.there. Boom. Good to see you. You have bought your gadgets in. See
:21:12. > :21:16.that picture? Is this the future? We said 2016 was going to be the year
:21:17. > :21:20.of virtual reality, when we saw a lot of lodges. We have not seen the
:21:21. > :21:24.mass take-up yet. We are now seeing the emergence of cheaper forms of
:21:25. > :21:28.it. This is an example, a cheap headset in which you put a mobile
:21:29. > :21:33.phone. Much easier to get to grips with. Not as good as things like the
:21:34. > :21:39.Oculus Rift, but obviously very cheap. What does it do? You are
:21:40. > :21:47.being transported into new worlds. My experience from this... I like
:21:48. > :21:51.the world I'm living in! My experience is the first time
:21:52. > :21:55.somebody does this, I did it with family members, with an ageing
:21:56. > :22:00.parent the other day. Did you? They are quite excited by it. My question
:22:01. > :22:04.is whether that will last. The first expense is great and then you do
:22:05. > :22:09.begin to say, yes, but what is it for? It is all about big companies
:22:10. > :22:15.applying it to something. A constructive... I'm seeing more of
:22:16. > :22:19.augmented reality mode, putting virtual objects and a real word. A
:22:20. > :22:24.great example was Pokemon Go, wandering around with friends
:22:25. > :22:27.catching Pokemon. Getting arrested for wandering around with friends.
:22:28. > :22:35.We will see more of that next year. -- friends. And then is a hollow
:22:36. > :22:45.bones that puts objects on the real world. -- lens. Voice control! Be
:22:46. > :23:03.quiet. It works! Amazing. Happy to help. You have spoiled my demo. OK,
:23:04. > :23:10.Google. Who is Aaron said Iraq? Aaron Heslehurst is a TV presenter.
:23:11. > :23:16.And then you can ask questions like how all dizzy? We will not go on
:23:17. > :23:18.that. -- how old is he? He celebrated his 70th birthday this
:23:19. > :23:23.year. LAUGHTER
:23:24. > :23:29.We saw the Amazon Echo, voice controlled speaker, take off. Then
:23:30. > :23:33.we have the Google rival. Devices you talk to, voice becoming a new
:23:34. > :23:38.interface. We have seen in mobile phones. This is a Google mobile
:23:39. > :23:44.phone using the smart system. You also have Siri. Those are becoming
:23:45. > :23:53.so much more sophisticated. So much smarter. For instant, when I ask,
:23:54. > :24:01.who is someone, a good question is how all dizzy? That is not work. Are
:24:02. > :24:06.people buying them? They are. These voice controlled speakers are out
:24:07. > :24:12.there. These are things that are out there. They are in the environment.
:24:13. > :24:15.Voice control is becoming a thing. This is the stuff when we were
:24:16. > :24:21.younger we watch the science fiction films and there would be on a
:24:22. > :24:26.spaceship. What amazes me is how blase we are about it. In Star Trek,
:24:27. > :24:33.there were devices where you could speak one language and it will come
:24:34. > :24:39.out in another. We have them. What about the driverless cars. There is
:24:40. > :24:42.a lot of controversy? It feeds into the same thing, more intelligence
:24:43. > :24:47.being built into allsorts of devices. We have come a long way
:24:48. > :24:52.with driverless technology and I am expecting more demos of that. The
:24:53. > :24:56.big show in Las Vegas in January. That sort of technology leads us
:24:57. > :25:02.into the Internet of things. Yes. I have a bunch of devices, all
:25:03. > :25:06.connected to the Internet. That is a smart doorbell with a camera on it.
:25:07. > :25:09.It will identify who has come to your door and you can let the mean
:25:10. > :25:19.by smart phone. Smart lighting that you can control -- let them in. I
:25:20. > :25:31.just bought this. Jones, Jones, Jones! He wanted a drone. Lots more
:25:32. > :25:37.up in the sky. --.... Hey, Siri, turn the Christmas lights on. Thank
:25:38. > :25:40.you for joining us. That is it from Business Live. Thank you for
:25:41. > :25:44.watching. See you in the New Year. Take care.
:25:45. > :25:46.Yesterday's weather was all about Storm Barbara,
:25:47. > :25:49.the second named storm for the season.
:25:50. > :25:51.It has been a quiet winter season so far.
:25:52. > :25:55.There is Barbara, the curl of cloud working into the UK.