:00:09. > :00:13.Tonight at 10: On the eve of the Chancellor's Autumn Statement, the
:00:13. > :00:17.spectre of a new recession. A leading forecaster sees fading
:00:17. > :00:22.growth and surging unemployment in the months ahead. The Chancellor
:00:22. > :00:24.decides to invest in major building work with more measures to come.
:00:24. > :00:28.We're going to take our country through these difficult times, we
:00:28. > :00:33.are going to weather the storm. But we also have to lay the foundations
:00:33. > :00:37.for future economic success. George Osborne's plan hasn't worked. He
:00:37. > :00:40.said that cutting faster would be good for growth and jobs. It has
:00:40. > :00:46.ended up with higher borrowing and failure.
:00:46. > :00:51.Also tonight: Chris Jeffries, wrongly suspected of murder, tells
:00:51. > :00:58.the Leveson Inquiry that the press set out to blacken his character.
:00:58. > :01:06.Sensational, exploitative. As titillating, to appeal in every
:01:06. > :01:09.possible way to people's voyeuristic instincts. Ahead of the
:01:09. > :01:14.public sector strike, unions are accused of itching for a fight.
:01:14. > :01:17.Mike Tindall is reinstated to the England rugby squad, despite the
:01:18. > :01:22.controversy of the World Cup campaign.
:01:22. > :01:28.And tributes to the director that gave us Women In Love and other
:01:28. > :01:32.iconic films in British cinema. I'll be here with Sportsday later
:01:32. > :01:35.in the Alma BBC News Channel, including a comeback, cards, a
:01:35. > :01:45.month after retiring David Haye could be back in the ring next
:01:45. > :02:00.
:02:00. > :02:04.Good evening, on the eve of the Chancellor's Autumn Statement,
:02:04. > :02:08.there is growing concern that the economy is sliding back into
:02:09. > :02:11.recession. The international economic organisation, the OECD, is
:02:12. > :02:15.predicting a collapse in growth and another surge in unemployment in
:02:15. > :02:23.the months ahead. It comes as George Osborne prepares to deliver
:02:23. > :02:29.his latest plan to try to boost the Tomorrow, we will all know what he
:02:29. > :02:33.knows. Just how deep a hole the British economy is in. George, do
:02:33. > :02:36.you want to stand next to the edge? With friends like Boris Johnson,
:02:36. > :02:41.who needs enemies? The Chancellor knows that Labour will soon be able
:02:41. > :02:45.to taunt him with official forecasts showing growth stuttering
:02:45. > :02:52.and borrowing soaring again. Today, the OECD predicted it could even be
:02:52. > :02:57.a double-dip recession. The UK has gone back into recession. It is a
:02:57. > :03:01.very shallow and short-lived recession. But, technically, it is
:03:01. > :03:05.a recession. The Chancellor is still here in the Treasury, late at
:03:05. > :03:08.night, working on the Autumn Statement he will deliver tomorrow.
:03:08. > :03:12.It will confirm what the forecasters and pundits have long
:03:12. > :03:17.predicted, that growth is going to go down and that borrowing is going
:03:17. > :03:21.to go up, and dramatically. There will, though, be a real impact in
:03:21. > :03:25.the sights and sounds of George Osborne having to confirm what his
:03:25. > :03:29.opponents have long predicted in front of an angry House of Commons.
:03:29. > :03:34.Today, George Osborne tried to show that he can get Britain building
:03:34. > :03:39.and growing again, without actually increasing public spending.
:03:39. > :03:43.OECD is predicting deep recessions in many European countries. That is
:03:43. > :03:46.a challenge for Britain. Now, what we can do with our policies,
:03:46. > :03:51.dealing with our debt, is we can take Britain safely through the
:03:51. > :03:54.storm. That is, of course, a key priority. At the same time we have
:03:54. > :03:58.to lay the foundations for future economic success. The Chancellor
:03:58. > :04:03.unveiled what he called a national infrastructure plan, with a mighty
:04:03. > :04:07.big aim. To invest �30 billion over the next decade in road and rail
:04:07. > :04:11.projects, power stations and broadband links. The detail is much
:04:12. > :04:16.more vague. Ministers hope that �20 billion will come from private
:04:16. > :04:20.investors. They are promising �5 billion from government savings.
:04:20. > :04:25.They say a further �5 billion could come, but only after the next
:04:26. > :04:30.election. If the money does flow, it will pay to expand the A14,
:04:30. > :04:35.which serves the port of Felixstowe, to ease congestion on the M3 and to
:04:35. > :04:40.use the whole shoulder to speed up traffic on sections of the M25.
:04:40. > :04:46.Just three amongst 40 high-profile projects. Not nearly enough, say
:04:46. > :04:49.Labour, to tackle the mess that we are in. The OECD are now
:04:49. > :04:53.forecasting our economy stagnating, growing less well and the US and
:04:53. > :04:57.Europe. Now is the time to change course, if not we are going to end
:04:57. > :05:00.up with the economy continuing to underperform, unemployment rising
:05:00. > :05:05.and more borrowing, not less. Chancellor will use his economic
:05:05. > :05:13.day of reckoning to insist that Britain must stick to his plan. His
:05:14. > :05:17.opponents will say, when you lie in As Nick was saying, the headline
:05:17. > :05:20.figures to be unveiled tomorrow will all be considerably worse than
:05:20. > :05:29.he had hoped for when he took office 18 months ago, and even more
:05:29. > :05:33.recently. But what are his options at this stage? Stephanie Flanders
:05:33. > :05:37.is here to explain. When he came into office, the
:05:37. > :05:40.Chancellor said he wanted his Autumn Statement to beat Loki, not
:05:41. > :05:44.the set-piece events they became under Gordon Brown. But it hasn't
:05:44. > :05:49.turned out that way. There will be important economic news in
:05:49. > :05:54.tomorrow's speech, most of it plant. At the time of the Budget, Mr Ross
:05:54. > :05:58.Brawn was hoping the economy would grow by 2.1% this year and 2.6%
:05:58. > :06:04.next year. The consensus now among independent forecasters is that
:06:04. > :06:09.growth will be less than half as fast, just 1% in 2011 and in 2012.
:06:09. > :06:14.That new OECD report predicts growth next year of just 0.5%.
:06:14. > :06:17.Lower growth means higher public spending and lower tax revenues. It
:06:17. > :06:23.also means higher than expected borrowing for the rest of the
:06:23. > :06:27.parliament. We are still borrowing �120 billion or more this year. The
:06:27. > :06:31.public debt continues to rise. The Chancellor has set himself some
:06:31. > :06:34.targets for reducing the deficit over the next four or five years.
:06:34. > :06:37.If he is going to meet those targets, there is really not a
:06:37. > :06:42.great deal we can do in terms of significantly increasing spending
:06:42. > :06:45.tomorrow. Mr Osborne's big promise was that he would get rid of most
:06:45. > :06:49.of the structural part of the deficit, the debt that will not go
:06:49. > :06:54.away with economic growth, over five years. At the time of the
:06:54. > :07:00.Budget, he was on course to do that a year early, in 2014. Tomorrow we
:07:00. > :07:04.expected to say he is still on course, that he has lost the extra
:07:04. > :07:08.breathing room and the five years in question have moved forward to
:07:08. > :07:10.2015, after the election. The new forecast for borrowing and the last
:07:10. > :07:15.full year of this parliament will show just how much our fortunes
:07:15. > :07:19.have changed. Back in March, the Office For Budget Responsibility
:07:19. > :07:25.predicted borrowing in that year of �37 billion. The consensus now will
:07:25. > :07:30.be more than double that. That �81 billion forecast is actually higher
:07:30. > :07:34.than the OBR predicted would happen under Labour's old plans back in
:07:34. > :07:38.20th June 10. But a lot has happened since then, not least the
:07:38. > :07:42.crisis in the euro-zone, which has probably already caused a recession
:07:42. > :07:46.across the Channel and may yet cause one in the UK. Time for a
:07:47. > :07:50.stimulus? Labour would say so. In the city, many agree with the
:07:50. > :07:54.Chancellor that it is not worth the risk. A slower pace of austerity
:07:54. > :07:58.would be more positive for UK growth. The problem is, we do not
:07:59. > :08:04.know the point at which those that they and the UK money would take
:08:04. > :08:08.flight. What we do now is that, at the point where that is reached,
:08:08. > :08:12.the austerity required to regain that confidence would have a more
:08:12. > :08:16.negative effect on the UK economy than we are currently seeing.
:08:16. > :08:19.weeks, ministers and officials have been preparing us for bad news
:08:19. > :08:23.tomorrow. But maybe we shouldn't forget to be disappointed when we
:08:23. > :08:26.see the numbers in black-and-white. For all the bells and whistles, the
:08:26. > :08:32.big message from the statement will be that Britain's economic
:08:32. > :08:36.prospects are a good deal bleaker than the Chancellor hoped.
:08:36. > :08:40.Let's go live to Downing Street and Nick Robinson outside Number 11. As
:08:40. > :08:43.you look ahead to tomorrow, set it in some context for us. You have
:08:43. > :08:48.already told us about some of the things to expect, what else can we
:08:48. > :08:52.expect? The main thing is simply the impact of those statistics. The
:08:52. > :08:57.way in which one minister had seen the figures put it to me is this,
:08:57. > :09:00.the light at the end of the tunnel is receding. That has huge
:09:00. > :09:03.political consequences. The Chancellor will insist he is
:09:03. > :09:07.sticking to Plan A, that he is not going to spend more public money,
:09:07. > :09:11.he is not going to borrow more money in order to get the economy
:09:11. > :09:15.moving again. But, of course, he will be borrowing a lot more simply
:09:15. > :09:18.because the economy is not growing. That means he will not be able to
:09:18. > :09:22.promise that the deficit will be sorted as a problem come the next
:09:22. > :09:27.election. It will be a problem that goes after it. It has to be dealt
:09:27. > :09:32.with after it, with huge consequences for politics between
:09:32. > :09:34.now and election, and beyond. We will get some specific measures
:09:34. > :09:38.tomorrow. Some of the people that will have to paperback
:09:38. > :09:41.infrastructure work, for example. A little bit more on the bank levy, I
:09:41. > :09:47.am told. There will be a little bit more restriction on tax credits as
:09:47. > :09:51.well. There is some gain for a few, the Government is promising that it
:09:51. > :09:56.will double the number of deprived two-year-olds that get help with
:09:56. > :10:02.childcare and education. The bottom 20% currently get care. The bottom
:10:02. > :10:10.40% will get it in future. 130,000 new two-year-olds. That will be one
:10:10. > :10:14.good piece of news. There will not Their Leveson Inquiry into
:10:14. > :10:20.newspaper standards has heard from a man who was wrongly suspected of
:10:20. > :10:24.involvement in the murder of Joanna Yeates. Her body was found in
:10:24. > :10:27.Bristol on Christmas Day last year. Christopher Jefferies said he had
:10:27. > :10:35.been vilified by the press in a frenzied campaign to blacken his
:10:35. > :10:38.Christopher Jefferies, the figure on the left, has changed his
:10:38. > :10:43.appearance since his image received such unwelcome attention nearly a
:10:43. > :10:46.year ago. This is how he looked last December, when he was arrested
:10:46. > :10:52.over the murder of Joanna Yeates. Christopher Jefferies was innocent.
:10:52. > :11:02.But his reputation was torn apart by the press. The whole slanting of
:11:02. > :11:05.
:11:05. > :11:11.the reporting was intended to be as sensational, as exploitative, as
:11:11. > :11:17.titillating and to appeal in every possible way to people's four-year
:11:17. > :11:21.stick instincts. -- voyeuristic instincts. The stories were so
:11:21. > :11:26.distorted that he had to go into hiding when he was released. For a
:11:26. > :11:32.period after Rye was released, I was effectively under house arrest.
:11:32. > :11:36.I went from France to friends, rather as if I was a recusant
:11:36. > :11:43.priest at the time of the Reformation, I suppose, going from
:11:43. > :11:47.safe house to safe house. singer Charlotte Church has been in
:11:47. > :11:51.the public eye since she was a teenager. She described almost
:11:51. > :11:58.daily surveillance, cameras hidden in her garden and offers to
:11:58. > :12:04.boyfriends to talk about her private life. Why is it OK that an
:12:04. > :12:12.editor or somebody senior in a newspaper could pay an unemployed
:12:12. > :12:18.boy from Cardiff tens of thousands of pounds to reveal intimate,
:12:18. > :12:21.sexual details about another 17- year-old girl? The inquiry has
:12:21. > :12:25.heard for five days from people who feel they have been victims of the
:12:25. > :12:32.press. Tomorrow it will hear from a former tabloid reporter who became
:12:32. > :12:36.disillusioned about what he was asked to do and a Guardian reporter
:12:36. > :12:40.who, more than anyone, exposed the scale of the phone hacking scandal.
:12:40. > :12:43.A British soldier killed in Afghanistan yesterday has been
:12:43. > :12:46.named as 20-year-old Rifleman Sheldon Steel. The Ministry of
:12:46. > :12:52.Defence said he died after an explosion in Babaji, in the Lashkar
:12:52. > :13:02.Gah district. From Leeds, he served with the 5th Battalion, the rivals,
:13:02. > :13:05.
:13:05. > :13:10.David Cameron has chaired a meeting of ministers looking at plans for
:13:10. > :13:14.this Wednesday' strike which is expected to be one of the biggest
:13:14. > :13:22.for decades. Public sector workers are walking out at planned changes
:13:22. > :13:26.to their pensions. Teachers and border staff and civil servants are
:13:26. > :13:31.expected to take part. Michael Gove accused the union leaders of
:13:31. > :13:36.itching for a fight. They keep our borders secure, they help us when
:13:36. > :13:40.we are sick, they empty our bin, clean our hospitals and teach our
:13:40. > :13:46.children, but on Wednesday they are going on strike. Today the
:13:46. > :13:53.ministers made clear what they think of some of the union leaders.
:13:53. > :13:57.Hardliners, militants, ieching for -- itching for a fight. They want
:13:57. > :14:03.families inconvenienced. For mothers to give up a day's work to
:14:03. > :14:08.pay for child care as the schools will be closed. Two decades ago,
:14:08. > :14:13.Michael Gove went on strike himself, but today he urged the teachers and
:14:13. > :14:17.public sector workers to think again. But strikes and
:14:17. > :14:20.demonstrations there will be. The Government wants public sector
:14:20. > :14:25.workers to may more into the pensions and work longer, many,
:14:25. > :14:30.they say, will get a pension as good as now, if not better, but the
:14:30. > :14:35.unions feel that the members are unfairly targeted, and many will be
:14:36. > :14:39.struggling to pay more. We are not itching for a fight. We need an
:14:39. > :14:45.agreement, but we need the ministers to reach that agreement
:14:45. > :14:50.with us. Including Michael Gove. Some clearly want to blame the
:14:50. > :14:54.strike on militant bosses, but other ministers fear that this
:14:54. > :15:02.confrontational language could make a deal on pensions harder in the
:15:02. > :15:06.long-term. So, whrfplt It may be a bit of hassle for the parents, but
:15:06. > :15:10.everyone has to do what they have to do. I have to take time off work,
:15:10. > :15:15.but I'm full of passion for what they have to do, I support what
:15:16. > :15:20.they are doing. Well, I have sympathy for the workers, but I am
:15:20. > :15:25.concerned about the children mitting out. Ed Miliband said he
:15:25. > :15:31.did not want to demonise the strikers, but today, finally, he
:15:31. > :15:37.said he did not support the industrial action. He found that
:15:37. > :15:42.not everyone was sympathetic to the Civil Service. How is it that the
:15:42. > :15:47.Civil Service and the public sector workers are not able to accept the
:15:47. > :15:51.position we are in? Nobody wants to see the strikes, they are
:15:51. > :15:56.disruptive as you say. Least of all, the people are losing pay from
:15:56. > :16:01.going on a day's strike. But for now, millions do appear ready to
:16:01. > :16:04.lose a pay to make their point. This afternoon, David Cameron
:16:04. > :16:09.gathered his ministers to prepare for the disruption, but with the
:16:09. > :16:15.unions warning of more strikes to come, there is much at stake.
:16:15. > :16:24.Coming up tonight: Nestle launches an investigation to stop the use of
:16:24. > :16:28.child labour by its African suppliers. In Egypt, people have
:16:28. > :16:31.turned up in their millions on the opening day of elections for a new
:16:31. > :16:35.Parliament. It is the first national vote since Hosni Mubarak
:16:35. > :16:40.was driven from power earlier in the year. The contest takes place
:16:40. > :16:44.over several weeks, so far few security problems have been
:16:44. > :16:52.reported despite the unrest of recent days. Jeremy Bowen has been
:16:52. > :16:57.reporting in the Egyptian capital. Here in Cairo, they had to wait
:16:57. > :17:02.longer than expected as the ballots and the other official paperwork
:17:02. > :17:07.arrived late, but they were patient. The right to vote at last, it made
:17:07. > :17:13.people who had spent their lives under a dictator feel like citizens.
:17:13. > :17:16.This is the first time in pie life, me, my wife and my son, we are
:17:16. > :17:23.going together today. We are feeling this is a good day. This
:17:23. > :17:28.day, it will be a part of history. The ballot papers were enormous.
:17:28. > :17:33.This district had 122 names to choose from. But no-one seemed to
:17:33. > :17:38.mind. They had elections under the old regime, but they were fix sod
:17:38. > :17:43.most did not bother to vote. Not today. TRANSLATION: It's the first
:17:44. > :17:48.time. I want it to be good for everyone. Whoever wins, I just hope
:17:48. > :17:53.that they don't stay forover! Getting a free vote was a big part
:17:53. > :17:57.of the revolution for a lot of Egyptians and its finally happening.
:17:57. > :18:05.There are still serious questions, though, about the amount of power
:18:05. > :18:13.that the army wants to retain after civilian politicians are elected.
:18:13. > :18:20.Outside, the army handled the security. But apart from a row
:18:20. > :18:24.about queue-jumping... It was peaceful. Some Egyptians believe
:18:24. > :18:30.that this election is flawed because these men, senior generals,
:18:30. > :18:34.will still run the country after the votes are counted. However the
:18:34. > :18:39.election goes, if the economy is not sorted out, political stability
:18:39. > :18:47.will not be possible. 700,000 new people enter the workforce every
:18:47. > :18:51.year. Many never get a proper job. Amr Moussa, a front-runner for next
:18:51. > :18:56.year's presidential vote, which he says will finally end military rule,
:18:56. > :19:01.believes that this election is the best possible way forward. The vast
:19:01. > :19:07.majority of Egyptians want to have the state respected, and there is
:19:07. > :19:16.no other way to respect the state and have a heavyweight Egypt, apart
:19:16. > :19:25.from with a good government, dem OK rasy in the future and a good
:19:25. > :19:33.Government. We are going to make it. -- democracy. This day is not
:19:33. > :19:37.perfect, but it historic. -- it is historic. The England rugby union
:19:37. > :19:43.player, Mike Tindall, has been reinstated to the national squad.
:19:43. > :19:48.He had been punished recently for bad behaviour during the recent
:19:48. > :19:53.World Cup campaign. Our Sports Correspondent is with me here, Olly,
:19:53. > :19:58.what do you make of this? This is a victory of sorts for Mike Tindall.
:19:58. > :20:02.It is worth going back to the start of the World Cup, to one of many
:20:02. > :20:07.indiscretions that it is felt that de-railed their campaign with all
:20:07. > :20:11.of the negative publicity. We go to a night out in which they beat
:20:11. > :20:17.Argentina. A rather infamous night. Mike Tindall joined by a couple of
:20:17. > :20:22.other players. They went to a bar it involved a dwarf-throwing
:20:22. > :20:27.contest. Mike Tindall was caught on CCTV, Mike Tindall, of course,
:20:27. > :20:32.newly married into the Royal Family, also with a mystery blonde. It was
:20:32. > :20:38.felt he was handed out a hefty fine. That it was unprecedented.
:20:38. > :20:43.Extraordinary. That it was felt that Mike Tindall misled the
:20:43. > :20:48.English management about his whereabouts at the time. But it was
:20:48. > :20:53.also said that Mike did not mislead the management, that there was no
:20:53. > :20:57.suggestion of any sexual impropriety of any nature with the
:20:57. > :21:02.woman in question, but they do feel that his behaviour was short of
:21:02. > :21:12.what was expected. This is difficult for Rob Andrew. He is
:21:12. > :21:16.fighting fires at Twickenham. It has been a difficult moment for his
:21:16. > :21:20.position being undermined and Tintin at 33 to be allowed back
:21:20. > :21:30.into the England squad, it is hardly a step forward if they do
:21:30. > :21:37.
:21:37. > :21:46.let him back into the squad. Thank -- Mike Tin dan dal. The chocolate
:21:46. > :21:52.industry, and Nestle are hoping to stamp out child labour. We have
:21:52. > :21:57.this report. A month ago we filmed these children harvesting coca in
:21:57. > :22:04.the Ivory Coast. The work is dangerous. They are kept out of
:22:04. > :22:13.school. It is illegal. One said he had not seen his family for three
:22:13. > :22:19.years. Cocoa is the raw product that makes chocolate. Far away from
:22:19. > :22:24.the poverty of West Africa, Nestle, the world's biggest food company
:22:24. > :22:29.has declared that the present situation can't go on. It is clear
:22:29. > :22:35.that the way cocoa can cultivated today in the type of environment
:22:35. > :22:43.that it is done with the use of child labour, with the number of
:22:43. > :22:48.intermeetaries in the supply chain, it is not sustainable. Cocoa's
:22:48. > :22:55.journey to the shops is complicated and filled with middle men. Nestle
:22:55. > :23:00.wants to licence some of the stages. It will track the cocoa from the
:23:00. > :23:05.remotest places through checkpoints and pay-offs to the warehouse.
:23:05. > :23:10.Sacks of cocoa arrive in the warehouse with no label as to where
:23:10. > :23:14.it was grown or under what conditions. It is here that the
:23:14. > :23:21.cocoa begins its international journey, that ends up in chocolate
:23:21. > :23:26.shops all around the world. It's shipped out as part of a global
:23:26. > :23:31.business, worth more than �60 billion a year. Yet most chocolate
:23:31. > :23:36.wrappers don't state where the cocoa was farmed or whether it's
:23:36. > :23:41.been tainted by child labour. Campaigners say that the chocolate
:23:42. > :23:45.industry has made similar promises before. The big chocolate companies,
:23:45. > :23:49.including Nestle, need to apologise for the fact they did not keep
:23:49. > :23:53.their first promise, and tell us why we should trust them to keep
:23:53. > :24:03.their promise this time around. Nestle's investigation into child
:24:03. > :24:04.
:24:04. > :24:09.labour on the cocoa farms begins next month. Ken, one of Britain's
:24:09. > :24:13.most koifl film directors has died at the age of 84. He had been
:24:13. > :24:17.receiving treatment after a series of strokes. Ken Russell began his
:24:17. > :24:25.career making documentaries, he is best-remembered for some of the
:24:25. > :24:30.most talked about films in the 60s, and the 70s, including Women In
:24:30. > :24:34.Love and defendant defendant. Ken Russell's portrait of the Composer,
:24:35. > :24:40.Elgar, one of the series of acclaimed art documentaries he made
:24:40. > :24:47.for the BBC in the 1960s. They were beautiful, seductive and self-
:24:47. > :24:57.indulgent. They marked him out as a film-maker of talent, some said
:24:57. > :24:59.
:25:00. > :25:07.genius. Camera speed... 339, take one. At the BBC he learned his
:25:07. > :25:12.craft as a director and dropd his trademark style, flamboyant and
:25:12. > :25:16.visually extravagant. He moved into cinema where the second major
:25:16. > :25:24.feature, Women In Love was acclaimed as a masterpiece.
:25:24. > :25:30.shan't save them, father. There is no knowing where they are. I would
:25:30. > :25:34.plead guilty! But as time went on his films became more extreme
:25:34. > :25:41.defendant l, The Devils reflected his fascination with sex and
:25:41. > :25:47.religion and was widely panned. started to make films at that time.
:25:47. > :25:54.He disturbed me. Whether you were enjoying it or not. You had a
:25:54. > :25:59.strong reaction to the work either way. This is rare. Tomy, made in
:25:59. > :26:03.1975, was typically overblown. It followed more are than 30 years in
:26:03. > :26:09.which his films grew less successful and the difficulties he
:26:09. > :26:14.faced in financing them proved even greater. I sent a script to Channel
:26:14. > :26:21.4 the other day. It came back about six months later, signed by
:26:21. > :26:29.somebody I had never heard of, a name, totally unknown to me, "Thank
:26:29. > :26:35.you for your script it is not cinematic enough." I nearly went
:26:35. > :26:40.mad! Not cinematic enough from me?! He was, and his films remain the
:26:40. > :26:46.work of a genius. He was extraordinary, and like all
:26:46. > :26:52.geniuses, sometimes the films were much less than genius. Better to